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DOE OSTI2025

Arctic Impact Identification with Less Data Using Variable Relationships: An Exploratory Express LDRD project.

Regional impacts from sea ice loss can be challenging to separate from internal climate variability, potentially requiring thousands of ensemble members. East Asian wintertime cooling has been linked to sea ice loss from present day conditions in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project with these large ensemble counts. This cooling is theorized to arise from a strengthened Siberian High and East Asian Jet response. The strengthened Siberian High can be detected with one fifth the ensemble members needed for the East Asian wintertime cooling in a single model. We thus hypothesize that leveraging relationships between multiple variables in a conditional pathways-based approach would reduce the number of required ensemble members to conclusively attribute East Asian wintertime cooling to future sea ice concentrations. In all analyzed cases, confidence was increased when evaluating sea ice loss’s responsibility for the joint effects of East Asian cooling, East Asian Jet strengthening, and Siberian High strengthening over just East Asian cooling. However, we were not able to confidently attribute future East Asian wintertime cooling to sea ice loss in a single model. We found that significant intra-ensemble variability within single Earth System Models (ESMs) produced highly uncertain forcing response models upon which attribution results were undermined. We were able to show that ensemble mean seasonally averaged metrics from multiple ESMs greatly improved the accuracy of the forcing response linear models and exposed the necessity of all three steps in the pathway (sea ice area, Siberian High pressure, and East Asian Jet speed) for accurate prediction of East Asian wintertime cooling. Although all three steps were necessary, East Asian wintertime cooling possesses a large dependence on the Siberian High pressure, which weakens the confidence associated with overall strong joint-attribution comparing present day and future scenarios. We believe transitioning the pathway nodes to relative changes between the Siberian High and Aleutian Low as well as between the midlatitude westerlies and subtropical jet in the East Asianj Jet region may be able to produce significant attribution more fully dependent upon all three steps. Ultimately, this research demonstrates the simple extensibility of conditional pathways-based attribution to sea ice loss forcing on the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Dirtier Air from a Weaker Monsoon

The level of air pollution in China has much increased in the past decades, causing serious health problems. Among the main pollutants are aerosols, also known as particulate matter: tiny, invisible particles that are suspended in the air. These particles contribute substantially to premature mortality associated with cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer1. The increase of the aerosol level in China has been commonly attributed to the fast rise in pollutant emissions from the rapid economic development in the region. However, writing in Geophysical Research Letters, Jianlei Zhu and colleagues2 tell a different side of the story: using a chemical transport model and observation data, they show that the decadal scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon has also contributed to the increase of aerosol concentrations in China. The life cycle of atmospheric aerosols starts with its emission or formation in the atmosphere. Some aerosol components such as dust, soot and sea salt are emitted directly as particles to the atmosphere, but others are formed there by way of photochemical reactions. For example, sulphate and nitrate aerosols are produced from their respective precursor gases, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Aerosol particles can be transported away from their source locations by winds or vertical motion of the air. Eventually, they are removed from the atmosphere by means of dry deposition and wet scavenging by precipitation. Measurements generally show that aerosol concentrations over Asia are lowest during the summer monsoon season3, because intense rainfall efficiently removes them from the air. The East Asian summer monsoon extends over subtropics and mid-latitudes. Its rainfall tends to concentrate in rain belts that stretch out for many thousands of kilometres and affect China, Korea, Japan and the surrounding area. Observations suggest that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation have been in decline since the 1970s4. In particular, a weaker East Asian summer monsoon is characterized by weaker southerly or southwesterly winds, a deficit in rainfall over northern China and larger rainfalls in southern China. By contrast, when the East Asian summer monsoon is strong, the southerly winds and strong rainfalls extend to northern China. The decadal scale decline in the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon since the 1970s would imply an increase in aerosol concentrations in northern China, north of 28deg N, and a decrease in southern China if emissions were kept the same. One obvious reason for this direction of aerosol change is that the reduction of monsoon rainfall in northern China would cause less wet scavenging of aerosols by precipitation. Zhu et al.2 investigated this relationship between aerosol concentrations and the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon and showed that the two parameters have strong negative correlations: the summer aerosol concentrations near the surface over eastern China.

Chin, Mian↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Tale of Two Catchments: Causality Analysis and Isotope Systematics Reveal Mountainous Watershed Traits That Regulate the Retention and Release of Nitrogen

Abstract Mountainous watersheds are characterized by variability in functional traits, including vegetation, topography, geology, and geomorphology, which determine nitrogen (N) retention, and release. Coal Creek and East River are two contrasting catchments within the Upper Colorado River Basin that differ markedly in total nitrate (NO 3 − ) export. The East River has a diverse vegetation cover, and sinuous floodplains, and is underlain by N‐rich marine shale. At 0.21 ± 0.14 kg ha −1 yr −1 , the East River exports ∼3.5 times more NO 3 − relative to the conifer‐dominated Coal Creek (0.06 ± 0.02 kg ha −1 yr −1 ). While this can partly be explained by the larger size of the East River, the distinct watershed traits of these two catchments imply different mechanisms controlling the aggregate N‐export signal. A causality analysis shows physical and biogenic processes were critical in determining NO 3 − export from the East River catchment. Stable isotope ratios of NO 3 − (δ 15 N NO3 and δ 18 O NO3 ) show the East River catchment is a strong hotspot for biogeochemical processing of NO 3 − at the hillslope soil‐saprolite. By contrast, the conifer‐dominated Coal Creek retained nearly all atmospherically deposited NO 3 − , and its export was controlled by catchment hydrological traits (i.e., snowmelt periods and water table depth). The conservative N‐cycle within Coal Creek is likely due to the abundance of conifer trees, and smaller riparian regions, retaining more NO 3 − overall and reduced processing prior to export. This study highlights the value of integrating isotope systematics to link watershed functional traits to mechanisms of watershed element retention and release.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Remote Influence of Andean Convection on Amazonian Rainfall and Its Mechanisms

Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 produce too much precipitation over the Andes but too little over the Amazon or the Wet Andes-Dry Amazon (WADA) bias pattern. Unlike the conventional view that convection parameterization and land model deficiencies can contribute to Amazonian rainfall biases, we approach this long-standing biased model behavior through the lens of Andean convection. Using Community Earth System Model v1.1 and focusing on the wet season, our mechanism-denial experiments demonstrate that Andean convection notably reduces precipitation over the Amazon during austral summer. The Andean forced Amazonian response operates on weather timescale. Furthermore, the reduction of Amazonian rainfall is detectable within a few hours after initial Andean forcing. The precipitation response is primarily driven by variations in the moisture budget and is moderated by changes in convective available potential energy over the Amazon. Changes in the total advection of moisture over the Amazon are dominated by the vertical advection term and can be attributed to discrepancies in the dynamic omega field. In the experiments, the Andean east flank region is scrutinized where the vertical velocity and moisture fields play an intermediary role for the Andean driven WADA connection. The Andean forcing induces descending anomalies on the Andean east flank. The disturbances of wind and geopotential fields over the Andean east flank propagate eastward via Kelvin waves. Over the Amazon, descending anomalies and advective drying lead to reduction of mid-to-high level cloud, increase of shortwave cloud forcing and surface net radiation, and enhancement of themodynamic stability and rainfall reduction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1978

Motions and mass changes of a persistent coronal streamer

The Skylab white light coronagraph observed a coronal streamer during five successive limb passages between June 1 and August 6, 1973. Measurements of the streamer's latitude, brightness and polarization during three east-limb passages show that: (1) the streamer's axis migrated southward from 25 deg N at first east-limb passage to 11 deg N at second east-limb passage to 8 deg N at third east-limb passage, (2) the streamer's mass and mass gradient with height varied by 20-50% from one east-limb passage to the next, (3) the streamer's longitudinal extent was observed to be less on successive east-limb passages, and (4) mass changes (distinct from coronal transients) occurring over hours were detected during at least two limb passages. The streamer was found to be associated with a complex of solar activity consisting of active regions and filaments.

Poland, A. I.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Remote identification of a gravel laden Pleistocene river bed

The abundance of gravel deposits is well known in certain areas across the Gulf of Mexico coastal plain, including lands within several National Forests. These Pleistocene gravels were deposited following periods of glacial buildup when ocean levels were down and the main river channels had cut deep gorges, leaving the subsidiary streams with increased gradients to reach the main channels. During the warm interglacial periods that followed each glaciation, melting ice brought heavy rainfall and torrents of runoff carrying huge sediment loads that separated into gravel banks below these steeper reaches where abraiding streams, developed. As the oceans rose again, filling in the main channels, these abraiding areas were gradually flattened and covered over by progressively finer material. Older terraces were uplifted by tectonic movements associated with the Gulf Coastal Plain, and the subsequent erosional processes gradually brought the gravels closer to the surface. The study area is located on the Kisatchie National Forest, in central Louisiana, near Alexandria. Details of the full study have been discussed elsewhere. The nearest source of chert is in the Ouachita Mountains located to the northeast. The Ouachita River flows south, out of these mountains, and in Pleistocene times probably carried these chert gravels into the vicinity of the present day Little River Basin which lies along the eastern boundary of the National Forest. Current day drainages cross the National Forest from west to east, emptying into the Little River on the east side. However, a north-south oriented ridge of hills along the west side of the Forest appears to be a recent uplift associated with the hinge line of the Mississippi River depositional basin further to the east, and 800,000 years ago, when these gravels were first deposited during the Williana interglacial period, the streams probably flowed east to west, from the Little River basin to the Red River basin on the west side of the Forest. Within the National Forest and north of Alexandria, along Fish Creek, and east and west of an area known as Breezy Hill, exist several small, worked out gravel pits on privately owned blocks of land, formerly used by the state and county road departments. The pattern presented by these pits gives the impression of a series of north-south drainages lacing through the Forest, probable tributaries to Fish Creek which flows south of east from the west side of the Forest to empty into the Little River. Because of this predominant north-south pattern, no consideration was given to areas between these drainages during early gravel exploration efforts.

Scholen, Douglas E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Decadal-Interdecadal SST Variability and Regional Climate Teleconnections

Dominant modes of decadal and interdecadal SST variability and their impacts on summertime rainfall variability over East Asia and the North America are studied. Two dominant modes of interdecadal SST variability, one associated with El Nino-like warming in the global oceans and one with an east-west seesaw variation in the equatorial Pacific have been identified. The first mode is associated in part with a long-term warming trend in the topical oceans and cooling over the northern Pacific. The second mode suggests an westward shift and strengthening of the Walker circulation from 1960s to the 1980s. Over East Asian, the first SST mode is correlated with reduced rainfall in northern China and excessive rainfall in central China. This SST mode is also associated with the tendency for increased rainfall over the midwest region, and reduced rainfall over the east Coast of the US. The results suggest a teleconnection pattern which links the occurrences of drought and floods over the Asian monsoon and the US summertime time climate. This teleconnection is likely to be associated with decadal variability of the East Asian jetstream, which are affected by strong land surface heating over the Siberian region, as well as El Nino-like SST forcings. The occurrences of major droughts and floods in the East Asian and US continent in recent decades are discussed in light of the above teleconnection patterns.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of CO 4th Positive Radiation in CO2-Ar Mixtures

This paper presents measurements and simulations of CO 4th Positive spectra obtained in NASA Ames Research Center's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) and CentraleSupelec's Plasma Torch. The experiments were aimed at measuring optically thin emission for the main band features of CO 4th Positive by using test gas mixtures of CO2 and Ar. By using mixtures of CO2 and Ar, the temperature of the flow (and consequently black-body curve) is increased compared to using pure CO2 (or CO2 / N2 mixtures). This temperature increase allows for emission spectroscopy of features that would nominally be black-body limited for conditions relevant to Mars entry. The CO 4th Positive system is the focus of this study as it accounts for a large percentage of the emitted radiation for Martian entry, and also due to the difficulties of obtaining experimental validation data due to the emission appearing in the Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV) spectral range. The focus of this paper is to provide a comprehensive comparison between the EAST and plasma torch data along with various CO 4th Positive databases available in the literature. Previously reported VUV CO2 / N2 EAST data required a larger temperature than would be predicted based upon equilibrium shock relations. The need for the temperature increase implies that the EAST experiment did not fully equilibrate. Thus, it is presumed that the EAST data did not obtain an equilibrium condition. The plasma torch data, on the other hand, is very consistent with equilibrium assumptions. Thus, the equilibrium data obtained in the plasma torch is utilized to construct the CO 4th Positive emission model, which is then applied to the EAST data with a non-equilibrium interpretation.

A. M. Brandis↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using Geophysical Information to Investigate Subsurface Structure within the High-Hydraulic Conductivity Analysis Zone

Within the 200 East Area of the Central Plateau and southeastward toward the Columbia River, a high-hydraulic conductivity zone (HCZ) has been interpreted to extend through the 200-PO-1 and 200-BP-5 operable units on the Hanford Site. The HCZ is a controlling hydraulic feature that impacts groundwater flow out of the 200 East Area and the fate of eastwardly migrating plumes from the 200 West Area. The lateral extent of the HCZ is highly uncertain, and despite strong evidence for the existence of the HCZ based on water-level data and contaminant plume tracking, there is still a limited understanding of how to define its boundaries. To provide additional information on the nature and extent of the HCZ, three surface geophysical methods – electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), time-domain electromagnetics (TEM), and seismic methods – were used to collect data south of 200 East. In addition, existing data from 200 East, consisting of surface seismic data, a borehole check shot survey in 699-37-47A, and borehole stratigraphic interpretations, were used to aid interpretations of newly collected seismic data south of 200 East. This work presumed that the contrast in subsurface geophysical properties would be a first-order aid identifying a transmissive zone(s) within the HCZ analysis area by imaging contrasts and/or anomalies in geophysical properties. While seismic, ERT, and TEM methods have sensitivity to overlapping physical properties (porosity, moisture content, lithology), the resolution and physics used to acquire each of these datasets are different, and therefore the information can also be different. Figure S.1 shows the locations of the geophysical data considered in this report.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global source apportionment of aerosols into major emission regions and sectors over 1850–2017

Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor gases have changed significantly in the past few decades around the world. In this study, the Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (EAST) system is merged into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) to quantify the variations in anthropogenic aerosol concentrations, source contributions, and their subsequent radiative impact in four major emission regions across the globe during 1850–1980, 1980–2010, and 2010–2017. In North America and Europe, changes in anthropogenic PM 2.5 were mainly caused by changes in emissions from local energy and industrial sectors. The local industrial sector caused the largest increase in PM 2.5 in East Asia during 1980–2010 and decrease during 2010–2017. In South Asia, the increase in energy-related emissions dominated the rise in PM 2.5 levels during 1980–2017. During 1850–1980, the increases in emissions from North America contributed to the increase in the European PM 2.5 burden by 1.7 mg m -2 and the sources from the Europe were also responsible for the PM 2.5 burden increase in East Asia and South Asia by about 1.0 mg m -2 . During 1980–2010, East Asia contributed to an increase of 0.4–0.6 mg m -2 in the PM 2.5 burden in North America and Europe, while South Asia contributed about 0.3 mg m -2 . During 2010–2017, the contributions from East Asia to the PM 2.5 burdens in the North America, Europe, and South Asia declined by 0.3–0.6 mg m -2 due to the clean air actions in China, while the contributions from South Asia still increased due to the continuous increase in emissions in South Asia. The historical changes in aerosols had an impact on effective radiative forcing through aerosol–radiation interactions (ERF ari ). During 1980–2010, a decline in North American aerosols resulted in a positive ERF ari change (warming effect) in Europe and a decline in aerosols in Europe caused a warming effect in Russia and northern China. The changes in ERF ari from the increase and decrease in aerosols in China during 1980–2010 and 2010–2017, respectively, are comparable in magnitude. The continuous aerosol increases in South Asia from 1980 to 2017 resulted in negative ERF ari (cooling) changes in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and southern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Computer analysis of effects of altering jet fuel properties on refinery costs and yields

This study was undertaken to evaluate the adequacy of future U.S. jet fuel supplies, the potential for large increases in the cost of jet fuel, and to what extent a relaxation in jet fuel properties would remedy these potential problems. The results of the study indicate that refiners should be able to meet jet fuel output requirements in all regions of the country within the current Jet A specifications during the 1990-2010 period. The results also indicate that it will be more difficult to meet Jet A specifications on the West Coast, because the feedstock quality is worse and the required jet fuel yield (jet fuel/crude refined) is higher than in the East. The results show that jet fuel production costs could be reduced by relaxing fuel properties. Potential cost savings in the East (PADDs I-IV) through property relaxation were found to be about 1.3 cents/liter (5 cents/gallon) in January 1, 1981 dollars between 1990 and 2010. However, the savings from property relaxation were all obtained within the range of current Jet A specifications, so there is no financial incentive to relax Jet A fuel specifications in the East. In the West (PADD V) the potential cost savings from lowering fuel quality were considerably greater than in the East. Cost savings from 2.7 to 3.7 cents/liter (10-14 cents/gallon) were found. In contrast to the East, on the West Coast a significant part of the savings was obtained through relaxation of the current Jet A fuel specifications.

Breton, T.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Variability of (O I) 6300-A emission near Io

Observations of (O I) 6300-A emission near Io have been obtained in 1990, 1991, and 1992 by the National Solar Observatory staff using the solar-stellar spectrography on the McMath-Pierce telescope at Kitt Peak. High-resolution spectra with a resolving power of about 1.2 x 10(exp 5) were obtained with an integration time of 10-15 min each. The viewing aperture for the observations was 5.2 arc sec x 5.2 arc sec centered on Io, with spatial resolution limited within this area by seeing conditions. Observations thus far have been reduced to obtain average brightness values over the aperture which range from approximately 200 to 1000 R for a number of different Io phase angles and Io system III longitudes. The (O I) 6300-A emission brightness exhibits an east-west asymmetry, where the average intensity for Io phase angles in the west (receding ansa) is 1.5 times brighter than in the east (approaching ansa). Similar east-west intensity ratios have also been observed for neutrals near Io and ions in the plasma torus for a number of other optical and ultraviolet emission lines which are excited by electron impact. In addition to the east-west asymmetry, the (O I) 6300-A emission brightness exhibits a strong dependence on the Io system III longitude angle, with a maximum value occurring in the range 200 deg +/- 50 deg. Earlier IUE observations of ultraviolet emission lines of O and S near Io obtained over a number of years have measured the east-west asymmetry, but the long IUE integration times of approximately 7-14 hours masked any detection of system III variability. For the (O I) 6300-A emission, the O(1D) state may be excited by electron impact of atomic oxygen and by electron impact dissociation of SO. The molecule SO may be present at the exobase or may be produced above the exobase as the dominant product of SO2 dissociation by electron impact. Preliminary assessment indicates that production of O(1D) by molecular dissociation may be more important. The (O I) 6300-A emission may therefore provide a remote signature for monitoring (1) the upward transport rates of molecular species in Io's atmosphere, (2) the relative abundance and time-variable dissociation of SO2 and/or SO at the exobase and in the corona of Io, and (3) the spatial distribution of these escaping molecular and atomic species and their ion production rates in the planetary magnetosphere.

Scherb, F.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Revisiting the West Clearwater Lake Impact Structure, Canada

The West and East Clearwater Lake impact structures are two of the most distinctive and recognizable impact structures on Earth. Known regionally as the "Clearwater Lake Complex", these structures are located in northern Quebec, Canada (56 deg 10 N, 74 deg 20 W) approximately 125 km east of Hudson Bay. The currently accepted diameters are 36 km and 26 km for the West and East structures, respectively. Long thought to represent a rare example of a double impact, recent age dating has called this into question with ages of approximately 286 Ma and approximately 460-470 Ma being proposed for the West and East structures, respectively. Relatively little is known about the East Clearwater Lake structure. There is no surface exposure and what information there is comes from geophysics and two drill cores obtained in the 1960s. In contrast, the West Clearwater Lake structure is relatively well preserved with large ring of islands in the approximately 30 km diameter lake. Much of the work done on West Clearwater stems from field investigations carried out in 1977 driven by the Apollo program, with a focus on the impact melt rocks and other impactites, which are well exposed on the ring of islands. To our knowledge, the Clearwater Lake impact structures have not been the focus of detailed impact geology field investigations since the 1977 expedition and the only geological map that exists is from the 1960s and is at the reconnaissance level. Our knowledge of impact cratering processes have increased substantially since this time, as have the analytical techniques available for samples. This provided the motivation for a joint Canadian-US-UK expedition to the West Clearwater Lake impact structure in August and September 2015, under the auspices of the FINESSE (Field Investigations to Enable Solar System Science and Exploration) project, part of NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI). We focus here on the impactites of the West Clearwater Lake impact structure. Other ongoing studies, also presented at this conference, focus on central uplift formation, the impact-generated hydrothermal system, xxxx and using WCIS as an analog test site for crew studies of sampling protocols].

West Clearwater Lake↗

NASA NTRS2017

Benchmark Shock Tube Experiments for Radiative Heating Relevant to Earth Re-Entry

Detailed spectrally and spatially resolved radiance has been measured in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility for conditions relevant to high speed entry into a variety of atmospheres, including Earth, Venus, Titan, Mars and the Outer Planets. The tests that measured radiation relevant for Earth re-entry are the focus of this work and are taken from campaigns 47, 50, 52 and 57. These tests covered conditions from 8 km/s to 15.5 km/s at initial pressures ranging from 0.05 Torr to 1 Torr, of which shots at 0.1 and 0.2 Torr are analyzed in this paper. These conditions cover a range of points of interest for potential fight missions, including return from Low Earth Orbit, the Moon and Mars. The large volume of testing available from EAST is useful for statistical analysis of radiation data, but is problematic for identifying representative experiments for performing detailed analysis. Therefore, the intent of this paper is to select a subset of benchmark test data that can be considered for further detailed study. These benchmark shots are intended to provide more accessible data sets for future code validation studies and facility-to-facility comparisons. The shots that have been selected as benchmark data are the ones in closest agreement to a line of best fit through all of the EAST results, whilst also showing the best experimental characteristics, such as test time and convergence to equilibrium. The EAST data are presented in different formats for analysis. These data include the spectral radiance at equilibrium, the spatial dependence of radiance over defined wavelength ranges and the mean non-equilibrium spectral radiance (so-called 'spectral non-equilibrium metric'). All the information needed to simulate each experimental trace, including free-stream conditions, shock time of arrival (i.e. x-t) relation, and the spectral and spatial resolution functions, are provided.

Shock Tube↗

NASA NTRS2019

Full Facility Shock Frame Simulations of the Electric Arc Shock Tube

Radiative heating computations are performed for high speed lunar return experiments conducted in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility at NASA Ames Research Center. The nonequilibrium radiative transport equations are solved via NASA's in-house radiation code NEQAIR using flow field input from US3D flow solver. The post-shock flow properties for the 10 km/s Earth entry conditions are computed using the stagnation line of a blunt-body and a full facility CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) simulation of the EAST shock tube. The shocked gas in the blunt-body flow achieves a thermochemical equilibrium away from the shock front whereas EAST flow exhibits a nonequilibrium behavior due to strong viscous dissipation of the shock by boundary layer. The full-tube flow calculations capture the influence of the boundary layer on the shocked gas state and provide a realistic fluid dynamic input for the radiative predictions. The integrated radiance behind the shock is calculated in NEQAIR for wavelength regimes from Vacuum-UltraViolet (VUV) to InfraRed (IR), which are pertinent to the emission characteristics of high enthalpy shock waves in air. These radiance profiles are validated against corresponding EAST shots. The full-tube simulations successfully predict a sharp radiance peak at the shock front which gets smeared in the test data due to the spatial resolution in the measurements. The full facility based radiance behind the shock shows a slightly better match with the test data in the VUV and Red spectral regions, as compared to that from a blunt-body based predictions. The UV radiance is very similar for both geometries and under-predicts the test behavior. The IR test data matches better with the blunt-body based predictions where the full-tube simulations show a significant over-prediction.

Radiation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble

The CORDEX-CORE initiative was developed with the aim of producing homogeneous regional climate model (RCM) projections over domains world wide. In its first phase, two RCMs were run at 0.22° resolution downscaling 3 global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 program for 9 CORDEX domains and two climate scenarios, the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The CORDEX-CORE simulations along with the CMIP5 GCM ensemble and the most recently produced CMIP6 GCM ensemble are analyzed, with focus on several temperature, heat, wet and dry hazard indicators for present day and mid-century and far future time slices. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble shows a better performance than the driving GCMs for several hazard indices due to its higher spatial resolution. For the far future time slice the 3 ensembles project an increase in all temperature and heat indices analyzed under the RCP8.5 scenario. The largest increases are always shown by the CMIP6 ensemble, except for Tx > 35 °C, for which the CORDEX-CORE projects higher warming. Extreme wet and flood prone maxima are projected to increase by the RCM ensemble over the la Plata basin in South America, the Congo basin in Africa, east North America, north east Europe, India and Indochina, regions where a better performance is obtained, whereas the GCM ensembles show small or negligible signals. Furthermore, compound hazard hotspots based on heat, drought and wet indicators are detected in each continent worldwide in region like Central America, the Amazon, the Mediterranean, South Africa and Australia, where a linear relation is shown between the heatwave and drought change signal, and region like Arabian peninsula, the central and south east Africa region (SEAF), the north west America (NWN), south east Asia, India, China and central and northern European regions (WCE, NEU) where the same linear relation is found for extreme precipitation and HW increases. Although still limited, the CORDEX-CORE initiative was able to produce high resolution climate projections with almost global coverage and can provide an important resource for impact assessment and climate service activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the role of ion temperature gradient turbulence in driving ion thermal transport in neutral beam injection-heated L-mode plasmas in a superconducting tokamak

In this paper, we report a detailed experimental study of the role of ion-temperature-gradient driven turbulence in driving ion thermal transport in neutral beam injection (NBI)-heated L-mode plasmas in Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) (Wan et al 2000 Nucl. Fusion 40 1057) coupled with linear and nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations. Significant ion-scale turbulence k ⟂ < cm −1 (k ⟂ < 1.5, where k ⟂ where is the perpendicular wavenumber and ρ s is the ion gyroradius calculated using local electron temperature T e ), measured with a microwave reflectometer, is observed in the plasma core at for r/a ≈ 0.265 and 0.5 (where r is half the diameter of the closed flux surface at a given radial position, and a is half the diameter of the last closed flux surface). Local linear stability analysis with experimental equilibrium quantities at these two radial locations using the GS2 gyrokinetic code shows that the most unstable ion-scale micro-instability is the ion temperature gradient (ITG) mode. Since the computed maximum ion-scale linear growth rates are larger than the local Waltz-Miller E × B shearing rate (Waltz and Miller 1999 Phys. Plasmas 6 4265), the E × B shear is unable to suppress ion-scale turbulence, consistent with the experimental observation of ion-scale turbulence. Experimental ion and electron thermal transports, calculated with power balance analysis, are both anomalous with ion thermal transport being the dominant channel. Nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations using the electrostatic global particle-in-cell gyrokinetic tokamak simulation (GTS) code (Weixing Wang et al 2010 Phys. Plasmas 17 072511) show good quantitative agreement between predicted ion thermal transport and that from the power balance analysis. These results demonstrate for the first time the important role of ITG turbulence in driving thermal transport in NBI-heated L-mode plasmas in EAST, showing the effectiveness of GTS code in simulating electrostatic turbulence in EAST and the need of suppressing ITG turbulence to improve energy confinement in EAST.

Sun, P. J. [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Hef↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-informed grid refinement to improve traveltime accuracy in the regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model

The regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model predicts traveltimes of regional seismic phases accounting for 3-D structure of the crust and the upper mantle on a global scale. Previous versions of the RSTT model have been implemented using nodes separated by ∼1° spacing across the globe. A regional-scale study using regional Pn and Pg traveltimes across Israel and the Middle East demonstrated that data driven, systematic grid refinement reduces traveltime residuals and enhances resolution of smaller tectonic features in regions having dense ray coverage. High density Pn ray coverage in the western US, Europe, Middle East and East Asia can likewise provide the resolution that allows systematic global grid refinement of the RSTT model. In this study, we use a large number of Pn ray paths originating from events located with an epicentral location uncertainty of 25 km (GT25) or better. We conduct targeted grid refinements at 1.0°, 0.5°, 0.25° and 0.125° on a global scale, producing a refined RSTT model that yields a 21.6 per cent reduction in median event location error in Europe and the Middle East, when compared with the original global RSTT model presented in Begnaud et al. The new model also resolves finer tectonic structures in regions with high Pn ray density.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗