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Real-Time Application of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis for Floods and Landslides

Satellite data acquired and processed in real time now have the potential to provide the spacetime information on rainfall needed to monitor flood and landslide events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models and landslide algorithms. Progress in using the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) as input to flood and landslide forecasts is outlined, with a focus on understanding limitations of the rainfall data and impacts of those limitations on flood/landslide analyses. Case studies of both successes and failures will be shown, as well as comparison with ground comparison data sets-- both in terms of rainfall and in terms of flood/landslide events. In addition to potential uses in real-time, the nearly ten years of TMPA data allow retrospective running of the models to examine variations in extreme events. The flood determination algorithm consists of four major components: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM (Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission), topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flow direction, flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) a hydrological model to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay the input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to potential users and decision-makers, In terms of landslides, the satellite rainfall information is combined with a global landslide susceptibility map, derived from a combination of global surface characteristics (digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, and land cover classification etc.) using a weighted linear combination approach. In those areas identified as "susceptible" (based on the surface characteristics), landslides are forecast where and when a rainfall intensity/duration threshold is exceeded. Results are described indicating general agreement with landslide occurrences.

Adler, Robert↗

Application of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis to Floods and Landslides

Satellite data acquired and processed in real time now have the potential to provide the spacetime information on rainfall needed to monitor flood and landslide events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models and landslide algorithms. Progress in using the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) as input to flood and landslide forecasts is outlined, with a focus on understanding limitations of the rainfall data and impacts of those limitations on flood/landslide analyses. Case studies of both successes and failures will be shown, as well as comparison with ground comparison data sets both in terms of rainfall and in terms of flood/landslide events. In addition to potential uses in real-time, the nearly ten years of TMPA data allow retrospective running of the models to examine variations in extreme events. The flood determination algorithm consists of four major components: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM (Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission), topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flow direction, flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) a hydrological model to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay the input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to potential users and decision-makers. In terms of landslides, the satellite rainfall information is combined with a global landslide susceptibility map, derived from a combination of global surface characteristics (digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, and land cover classification etc.) using a weighted linear combination approach. In those areas identified as "susceptible" (based on the surface characteristics), landslides are forecast where and when a rainfall intensity/duration threshold is exceeded. Results are described indicating general agreement with landslide occurrences. However, difficulties in comparing landslide event information (mostly from news reports) with the satellite-based forecasts are analyzed.

Adler, Robert↗

Global Carbon Consumption Database for Wildland Fire

Fire plays a significant role on both national and global scales, profoundly impacting landscapes shaped by human activity as well as those left wild. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes. Fires can also serve to reduce fuels to mitigate wildfire risk and maintain healthy ecosystem functions. However, the smoke produced by fires, regardless of their size or purpose, can pose adverse effects on human health when inhaled downwind. Understanding the influence of smoke on air quality and human well-being necessitates the quantification of emissions that fires release into the atmosphere. In response to this need, we have established a comprehensive global consumption database directly linked to distinct fuels within various fire danger categories. This database, featuring a spatial resolution of approximately 300 meters, builds upon the foundations of the Pettinari, M. Lucrecia (2015) Global Fuelbed database, a global fuel map with standardized Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) biomass parameters. Consumption is broken down into five Fire Danger categories (Low, Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme), for both ‘new’ and ‘residual’ burning scenarios. We define ‘residual burned area’ as area burning in a region that has burned on a previous day for the same fire season, and ‘new burned area’ as area burning in a region that has not recently burned. This product serves as a valuable tool when used in conjunction with burned area data to rapidly estimate the carbon consumed and released into the atmosphere. Previously, we developed a similar emissions method utilizing satellite information, in conjunction with the FCCS 30-meter United States fuelbed dataset. We implemented this approach on fires, documented during the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign to estimate daily carbon emissions. Our emissions estimates were rigorously compared against in-situ measurements of CO2, CO, and black carbon aerosols, revealing a robust agreement between the two datasets.

Emily Gargulinski↗

Magnetic Flux Compression Concept for Aerospace Propulsion and Power

The objective of this research is to investigate system level performance and design issues associated with magnetic flux compression devices for aerospace power generation and propulsion. The proposed concept incorporates the principles of magnetic flux compression for direct conversion of nuclear/chemical detonation energy into electrical power. Specifically a magnetic field is compressed between an expanding detonation driven diamagnetic plasma and a stator structure formed from a high temperature superconductor (HTSC). The expanding plasma cloud is entirely confined by the compressed magnetic field at the expense of internal kinetic energy. Electrical power is inductively extracted, and the detonation products are collimated and expelled through a magnetic nozzle. The long-term development of this highly integrated generator/propulsion system opens up revolutionary NASA Mission scenarios for future interplanetary and interstellar spacecraft. The unique features of this concept with respect to future space travel opportunities are as follows: ability to implement high energy density chemical detonations or ICF microfusion bursts as the impulsive diamagnetic plasma source; high power density system characteristics constrain the size, weight, and cost of the vehicle architecture; provides inductive storage pulse power with a very short pulse rise time; multimegajoule energy bursts/terawatt power bursts; compact pulse power driver for low-impedance dense plasma devices; utilization of low cost HTSC material and casting technology to increase magnetic flux conservation and inductive energy storage; improvement in chemical/nuclear-to-electric energy conversion efficiency and the ability to generate significant levels of thrust with very high specific impulse; potential for developing a small, lightweight, low cost, self-excited integrated propulsion and power system suitable for space stations, planetary bases, and interplanetary and interstellar space travel; potential for attaining specific impulses approaching 10 (exp 6) seconds, which would enable missions to the outer planets within ten years and missions at interstellar distances within fifty years.

Litchford, Ron J.↗

Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

Mu, M.↗

Development and Testing of Automatically Generated ACS Flight Software for the MAP Spacecraft

By integrating the attitude determination and control system (ACS) analysis and design, flight software development, and flight software testing processes, it is possible to improve the overall spacecraft development cycle, as well as allow for more thorough software testing. One of the ways to achieve this integration is to use code-generation tools to automatically generate components of the ACS flight software directly from a high-fidelity (HiFi) simulation. In the development of the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) spacecraft, currently underway at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, approximately 1/3 of the ACS flight software was automatically generated. In this paper, we will examine each phase of the ACS subsystem and flight software design life cycle: analysis, design, and testing. In the analysis phase, we scoped how much software we would automatically generate and created the initial interface. The design phase included parallel development of the HiFi simulation and the hand-coded flight software components. Everything came together in the test phase, in which the flight software was tested, using results from the HiFi simulation as one of the bases of comparison for testing. Because parts of the spacecraft HiFi simulation were converted into flight software, more care needed to be put into its development and configuration control to support both the HiFi simulation and flight software. The components of the HiFi simulation from which code was generated needed to be designed based on the fact that they would become flight software. This process involved such considerations as protecting against mathematical exceptions, using acceptable module and parameter naming conventions, and using an input/output interface compatible with the rest of the flight software. Maintaining good configuration control was an issue for the HiFi simulation and the flight software, and a way to track the two systems was devised. Finally, an integrated test approach was devised to support flight software testing at both the unit- and build-test levels using the HiFi simulation to generate data for performance verification. Another benefit of the simulation and code-generation application used on the MAP project is that it supported bringing flight software and test data into the HiFi simulation environment. It was possible to integrate parts of the hand-coded flight software into the HiFi simulation, and also possible to import flight software test data for comparison and performance verification. This capability was used to incorporate the flight software Kalman filter into the HiFi simulation. This enabled us to greatly increase the amount of testing that could be done on the filter, because we could exert a greater degree of control over the software-only simulation than over the flight software test environment. Also, since the simulation could be used to run the Kalman filter faster than real time, our testing efficiency was greatly increased. We will conclude our discussion with a summary of the lessons learned thus far using automatically- generated code for the MAP project, and the spacecraft status as we work towards our scheduled launch in the year 2000.

ODonnell, James R., Jr.↗

Above-Aircraft Cirrus Cloud and Aerosol Optical Depth From Hyperspectral Irradiances Measured By a Total-Diffuse Radiometer

This study develops the use of spectral total and diffuse irradiance measurements, made from a prototype hyperspectral total-diffuse sunshine pyranometer (SPN-S), to retrieve layer fine-mode aerosol (τ aer ) and total optical depths from airborne platforms. Additionally, we use spectral analysis in an attempt to partition the total optical depth into its τ aer and cirrus cloud optical depth (τ cld ) components in the absence of coarse-mode aerosols. Two retrieval methods are developed: one leveraging information in the diffuse irradiance and the other using spectral characteristics of the transmitted direct beam, with each approach best suited for specific cloud and aerosol conditions. The SPN-S has advantages over traditional sun photometer systems, including no moving parts and a low cost. However, a significant drawback of the instrument is that it is unable to measure the direct-beam irradiance as accurately as sun photometers. To compensate for the greater measurement uncertainty in the radiometric irradiances, these retrieval techniques employ ratioed inputs or spectral information to reduce output uncertainty. This analysis uses irradiance measurements from the SPN-S and the solar spectral flux radiometer (SSFR) aboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) P-3 aircraft during the 2018 deployment of the ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) campaign and the 2019 Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP 2 Ex) mission to quantify above-aircraft cirrus τ cld and derive vertical profiles of layer τ aer . Validation of the τ aer retrieval is accomplished by comparison with co-located measurements of direct solar irradiance made by the Sky-Scanning Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR) and in situ measurements of aerosol optical depth. For the aggregated 2018 ORACLES results, regression between the SPN-S-based method and sun photometer τ aer values yields a slope of 0.96 with an R 2 of 0.96, while the root mean square error (RMSE) is 3.0 x 10 -2 . When comparing the retrieved τ aer to profiles of integrated in situ measurements of optical extinction, the slope, R 2 , and RMSE values for ORACLES are 0.90, 0.96, and 3.4 x 10 -2 , and for CAMP 2 Ex they are 0.94, 0.97, and 3.4 x 10 -2 , respectively. This paper is a demonstration of methods for deriving cloud and aerosol optical properties in environments where both atmospheric constituents may be present. With improvements to the low-cost SPN-S radiometer instrument, it may be possible to extend these methods to a broader set of sampling applications, such as ground-based settings.

spectral instrument (SPN-S)↗

Woven TPS - A New Approach to TPS Design and Manufacturing

NASA's Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) Game Changing Division recently funded an effort to advance a Woven TPS (WTPS) concept. WTPS is a new approach to producing TPS materials that uses precisely engineered 3D weaving techniques to customize material characteristics needed to meet specific missions requirements for protecting space vehicles from the intense heating generated during atmospheric entry. Using WTPS, sustainable, scalable, mission-optimized TPS solutions can be achieved with relatively low life cycle costs compared with the high costs and long development schedules currently associated with material development and certification. WTPS leverages the mature state-of-the-art weaving technology that has evolved from the textile industry to design TPS materials with tailorable performance by varying material composition and properties via the controlled placement of fibers within a woven structure. The resulting material can be designed to perform optimally for a wide range of entry conditions encompassing NASAs current and future mission needs. WTPS enables these optimized TPS designs to be translated precisely into mission-specific, manufactured materials that can substantially increase the efficiency, utility, and robustness of heat shield materials compared to the current state-of-the-art material options. By delivering improved heat shield performance and affordability, this technology will impact all future exploration missions, from the robotic in-situ science missions to Mars, Venus and Saturn to the next generation of human missions. WTPS can change the way NASA develops, certifies, and integrates TPS into mission life cycles - instead of being a mission constraint, TPS will become a mission enabler. It is anticipated that WTPS will have direct impact on SMD, HEOMD and OCT and will be of interest for DoD and COTS applications. This presentation will overview the WTPS concept and present some results from initial testing completed.

Feldman, Jay↗

Integrated Computational System for Aerodynamic Steering and Visualization

In February of 1994, an effort from the Fluid Dynamics and Information Sciences Divisions at NASA Ames Research Center with McDonnel Douglas Aerospace Company and Stanford University was initiated to develop, demonstrate, validate and disseminate automated software for numerical aerodynamic simulation. The goal of the initiative was to develop a tri-discipline approach encompassing CFD, Intelligent Systems, and Automated Flow Feature Recognition to improve the utility of CFD in the design cycle. This approach would then be represented through an intelligent computational system which could accept an engineer's definition of a problem and construct an optimal and reliable CFD solution. Stanford University's role focused on developing technologies that advance visualization capabilities for analysis of CFD data, extract specific flow features useful for the design process, and compare CFD data with experimental data. During the years 1995-1997, Stanford University focused on developing techniques in the area of tensor visualization and flow feature extraction. Software libraries were created enabling feature extraction and exploration of tensor fields. As a proof of concept, a prototype system called the Integrated Computational System (ICS) was developed to demonstrate CFD design cycle. The current research effort focuses on finding a quantitative comparison of general vector fields based on topological features. Since the method relies on topological information, grid matching and vector alignment is not needed in the comparison. This is often a problem with many data comparison techniques. In addition, since only topology based information is stored and compared for each field, there is a significant compression of information that enables large databases to be quickly searched. This report will (1) briefly review the technologies developed during 1995-1997 (2) describe current technologies in the area of comparison techniques, (4) describe the theory of our new method researched during the grant year (5) summarize a few of the results and finally (6) discuss work within the last 6 months that are direct extensions from the grant.

Hesselink, Lambertus↗

RSRM and ETM03 Internal Flow Simulations and Comparisons

ETM03 (Engineering Test Motor-03) is an extended length RSRM (Reusable Solid Rocket Motor) designed to increase motor performance and create more severe internal environments compared with the standard four-segment RSRM motor configuration. This is achieved primarily through three unique design features. First is the incorporation of an additional RSRM center segment, second is a slight increase in throat diameter, and third is the use of an Extended Aft Exit Cone (EAEC). As a result of these design features, parameters such as web time, action time, head end pressure, web time average pressure, maximum thrust, mass flow rate, centerline Mach number, pressure and thrust integrals have all increased compared with nominal RSRM values. In some cases these increases are substantial. The primary objective of the ETM03 test program is to provide a platform for RSRM component margin testing. Test results will not only provide direct data concerning component performance under more adverse conditions, but serve as a second design data point for developing, validating and enhancing component analytical modeling techniques. To help component designers assess how the changes in motor environment will affect performance, internal flow simulations for both the nominal RSRM and ETM03 motor designs were completed to obtain comparisons of aero-thermal boundary conditions and system loads. Full geometries for both motors were characterized with two-dimensional axi-symmetric models at burn times of 1, 20, 54, 67 and 80-seconds. A sixth set considered burn times of 110 and 117-seconds for RSRM and ETM03, respectively. The simulations were performed using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) commercial code FLUENT (trademark). Of particular interest were any differences between the two motor environments that could lead to a significant increase in system loads, or in internal insulation and/or nozzle component charring and erosion in ETM03 compared with RSRM. Based on these comparative analyses conducted in this study, the objective of ETM03 will be achieved by providing a more adverse operating environment for motor components than the nominal RSRM environment. For example: Higher chamber pressure drop in ETM03 than in RSRM; higher centerline Mach numbers approaching the nozzle in ETM03 than in RSRM; higher heat transfer rates for the internal insulation and nozzle components in ETM03 than in RSRM; and higher levels of droplet impingement and slag accumulation in ETM03 than in the RSRM.

Ahmad, R. A.↗

An optimization model for the US Air-Traffic System

A systematic approach for monitoring U.S. air traffic was developed in the context of system-wide planning and control. Towards this end, a network optimization model with nonlinear objectives was chosen as the central element in the planning/control system. The network representation was selected because: (1) it provides a comprehensive structure for depicting essential aspects of the air traffic system, (2) it can be solved efficiently for large scale problems, and (3) the design can be easily communicated to non-technical users through computer graphics. Briefly, the network planning models consider the flow of traffic through a graph as the basic structure. Nodes depict locations and time periods for either individual planes or for aggregated groups of airplanes. Arcs define variables as actual airplanes flying through space or as delays across time periods. As such, a special case of the network can be used to model the so called flow control problem. Due to the large number of interacting variables and the difficulty in subdividing the problem into relatively independent subproblems, an integrated model was designed which will depict the entire high level (above 29000 feet) jet route system for the 48 contiguous states in the U.S. As a first step in demonstrating the concept's feasibility a nonlinear risk/cost model was developed for the Indianapolis Airspace. The nonlinear network program --NLPNETG-- was employed in solving the resulting test cases. This optimization program uses the Truncated-Newton method (quadratic approximation) for determining the search direction at each iteration in the nonlinear algorithm. It was shown that aircraft could be re-routed in an optimal fashion whenever traffic congestion increased beyond an acceptable level, as measured by the nonlinear risk function.

Mulvey, J. M.↗

Rendering Three-Dimensional Solar Coronal Structures

An X-ray or EUV image of the corona or chromosphere is a 2D representation of an extended 3D complex for which a general inversion process is impossible. A specific model must be incorporated in order to understand the full 3D structure. We approach this problem by modeling a set of optically-thin 3D plasma flux tubes which we render these as synthetic images. The resulting images allow the interpretation of the X-ray/EUV observations to obtain information on (1) the 3D structure of X-ray images, i.e., the geometric structure of the flux tubes, and on (2) the internal structure using specific plasma characteristics, i.e., the physical structure of the flux tubes. The data-analysis technique uses magnetograms to characterize photospheric magnetic fields and extrapolation techniques to form the field lines. Using a new set of software tools, we have generated 3D flux tube structures around these field lines and integrated the plasma emission along the line of sight to obtain a rendered image. A set of individual flux-tube images is selected by a non-negative least-squares technique to Provide a match with an observed X-ray image. The scheme minimizes the squares of the differences between the synthesized image and the observed image with a non-negative constraint on the coefficients of the brightness of the individual flux-tube loops. The derived images are used to determine the specific photospheric foot points and physical data, i.e., scaling laws for densities and loop lengths. The development has led to Computer efficient integration and display software that is compatible for comparison with observations (e.g., Yohkoh SXT data, NIXT, or EIT). This analysis is important in determining directly the magnetic field configuration, which provides the structure of coronal loops, and indirectly the electric currents or waves, which provide the energy for the heating of the plasma. We have used very simple assumptions (i.e., potential magnetic fields and isothermal corona) to provide an initial test of the techniques before complex models are introduced. We have separated the physical and geometric contributions of the emission for a set of flux tubes and concentrated, in this initial study, on the geometric contributions by making approximations to the physical contributions. The initial results are consistent with the scaling laws derived from Yohkoh SXT data.

Gary, G. Allen↗

Comparison of Active and Passive Head Impulse Testing of the Horizontal Vestibulo-Ocular Reflex: Exploring the Feasibility of Different Approaches for Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION: Astronauts experience a wide variety of sensorimotor disturbances primarily due to microgravity-induced vestibular adaptations during spaceflight. Head Impulse Testing (HIT) will be conducted during the Complement of Integrated Protocols for Human Exploration Research program(CIPHER) Vestibular Health study to examine changes in the horizontal vestibulo-ocular reflex in response to high-velocity head movements to detect changes in peripheral vestibular function [1,2]. However, correct interpretation will require consideration of potential artifacts and the constraints of conducting this test across different phases of the mission. Therefore, the aims of our study were to (1) examine reliability across different test operators, and (2) compare results of active (aHIT) versus passive (pHIT) approaches to evaluate the feasibility of self-administered versus operator-assisted approaches. A comparison of responses with visual viewing of a wall target (default condition) versus vision occluded evaluated the influence of other oculomotor control influence across conditions, and comparison with computer-generated rotator head impulse tests (rHIT) examined the variability associated with the ocular responses independent of the variability in executing the head movements themselves. METHODS: Seventeen non-astronaut volunteers (male n=12, age=22.9 ± 3.0; female n=5, age=27.0 ± 6.0, mean ± std) completed HIT testing using video-oculography (VOG) goggles and a high-torque rotator system. The test order was counterbalanced across conditions: (1) passive head-on-torso (pHIT, default condition for flight study) using two operators (Op1 and Op2), (2) active head-on-torso (aHIT, subject initiated), and (3) passive head and torso using rotary chair (rHIT). Eye and head movement data were processed to obtain gain in each direction. The main outcome measures were average gain and asymmetry [1], as well as the percentage of acceptable trials not excluded due to insufficient head amplitude or recording artifacts. RESULTS: While the pHIT gains were similar with vision (1.032 ± 0.043) and vision occluded (1.029 ± 0.038) conditions, the percentage of acceptable trials was greater with vision (Op1 = 93.0%, Op2 = 93.2%) versus occluded (Op1 = 70.7%, Op2 = 67.6%). The reliability between operators was greater for pHIT gain (Intraclass Correlation, ICC = 0.66, p = 0.001) than for pHIT asymmetry (ICC = 0.57, p = 0.01). The percentage of acceptable trials reduced by ~20% during the self-administered aHITs for both visual conditions and tended to be lower than computer-generated rHITs (76% versus 83%). While the aHIT gains were not significantly different than pHIT gains for vision or vision occluded conditions, these measures were poorly correlated. Both aHIT and pHIT gains were significantly greater than the rHIT gains, presumably due to the reduced velocities from the rotator. The asymmetry measures were poorly correlated across pHIT, aHIT, and rHIT conditions, although none of the subjects had asymmetries greater than 16%. DISCUSSION: Our findings support the feasibility of using the standard pHIT methodology for spaceflight. Similarities between visual conditions reflect that these responses are mediated by the peripheral lateral canals rather than other oculomotor mechanisms. The inter-tester reliability was acceptable despite differences in the tester training. In addition to concerns of non-vestibular mechanisms introduced during self-administered aHITs [2], operator-assisted pHITs resulted in higher percentage of acceptable trials and should result in more efficient and reliable measures during spaceflight.

M R Ehrenburg↗

The OFP-6M transport jet

This report presents a preliminary design of a commercial jet transport that meets the criteria of the Request For Proposal presented by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronauts (AIAA). The proposal requires an innovative design of a low cost domestic commercial transport that will reduce operating costs for airline companies while still meeting present and future requirements of the Federal Aviation Regulations for this type of aircraft. Specifications for the design include a mixed class, 153 passenger aircraft, traveling a range of 3000 nm. The intent of the project is to identify factors that reduce cost and to design within the limits of these constraints. The project includes techniques or options that incorporate new technologies but do not override practicality, alternative design approaches, and a comparison between the new design and current aircraft in its class. The OFP-6M is an alternative design approach to the conventional commercial transport jet and is geared towards customer satisfaction through efficiency and reliability. The goals of the OFP-6M transport design are to provide original, sensible, and practical solutions by combining essential preliminary design factors with growing technology. The design focus of the OFP-6M reduces costs by simplifying systems where significant weight or maintenance savings can be achieved, and by integrating advanced technology for improved performance. Key aspects of the OFP-6M design are efficient use of materials like composites, and efficient advanced ducted high bypass turbofan engines. The high bypass engines lower fuel consumption and aid in reducing costs and meeting future noise emission restrictions. Composites are used for most structural components, including flooring and wing box. Although composites are an emerging technology and presently, a high maintenance material, they can be cost effective and an alternative to aluminum structures when correct manufacturing and design strategies are applied. Since, composites are lighter and require less manufacturing of complex parts, they can significantly reduce structural weight. Because of the large 17 ft. diameter, sophisticated aerodynamic considerations were implemented to significantly lower the drag. Supercritical airfoils were chosen with simple control surface design which allows for less maintenance and manufacturing costs. The interior configuration accommodates either all passenger, dual and single class flights or complete cargo. Also, a relaxed conventional stability is integrated with a stability augmentation system. As a result of these design implementations, the OFP-6M bottom line direct operating costs, compare favorably with the Boeing 737 and 757, at 3.49 cents per available seat mile and costs are expected to reduce when improved manufacturing and maintenance methods are implemented.

Alexander, Kelly↗

A Year in Space: Early Results and Lessons Learned from the First Year-Long Expedition Aboard the International Space Station

Two ISS crewmembers recently completed the first year-long orbital stay in two decades. International cooperation was central to the success of Mikhail Kornienko from Russia and Scott Kelly from the United States. Their expedition leveraged current mission experience and capitalized on recent advances in health monitoring technology. This unique effort began in 2012 when the program managers of the ISS partner nations adopted two separate goals: greater multilateral cooperation to increase efficiency of inflight research and a year-long expedition to gain familiarity with in-flight durations approaching that required for a Mars mission. These goals were unified when a set of bilateral Russian and American human research investigations was assigned to the year-long mission, augmented by additional investigations from Europe and Japan. For example, Kelly was assigned 18 investigations (twice the complement on standard six-month missions) including two joint U.S.-Russian studies, and two Russian and two Japanese studies. The core set of American investigations was a repetition of six studies Kelly had done on his previous six-month ISS mission, to allow a direct comparison of physiological and behavioral responses of the longer and shorter durations in this single individual. The remainder of his assignments plus those of Kornienko were drawn from currently active national investigations documenting human adaptation to long-duration spaceflight factors or effectiveness of countermeasures against known deleterious adaptations. The two joint U.S.-Russian investigations were the flagship biomedical studies of the year-long expedition. The "Fluid Shifts" study collocated American research equipment alongside a Russian operational stressor device to document the pattern and impacts of the headward fluid shift long known to occur in weightlessness, including its role in ocular changes recently observed in some astronauts. The "Field Test" study investigated the ability of the astronaut and cosmonaut to perform rudimentary tasks requiring sensorimotor coordination immediately after landing to define human capabilities soon after landing on Mars after an extended transit. Both investigations were highly successful in large part to the thorough integration of the implementation processes of the two partners. Kelly's assignment as the one-year crewmember also provided a serendipitous opportunity for the "Twins Study" comparing changes in his body at the genetic level with those occurring on Earth in his identical twin brother Mark Kelly. Data analysis from this expedition will commence in earnest after frozen in-flight samples are delivered to Earth in May aboard a commercial cargo spacecraft. Detailed results are expected in early 2017. Preliminary results and implementation improvements will be reviewed in this presentation.

Charles, J. B.↗

Testing of Advanced Capabilities to Enable In-time Safety Management and Assurance for Future Flight Operations

In order to refine an initial Concept of Operations, explore Concepts of Use, and expose/validate requirements for future In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS), testing architectures were created, along with a set of capabilities and underlying information exchange protocols. These systems were conceived and developed based on hazards associated with two envisioned urban area flight domains: (1) highly autonomous small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) operating at low altitudes, and (2) highly autonomous air taxis. The initial scope of this development is described in [1]; this report provides an update, focusing on the subsequent developments and test activities. As stated in [1], it is important to note that there are many capabilities already in use by the industry (or soon to be in use) that will play critical roles in future IASMS designs. Those reported here were developed to address a gap in the current state-of-the-art regarding specific hazards/risks, and/or to allow for investigation of the interplay between and across hazard types — particularly regarding how overall safety risk can be reduced or managed effectively. Results of testing and development activities are organized by the operational phase wherein a particular capability would be employed (i.e., preflight, in-flight, and post-flight/off-line). Pre-flight: A set of capabilities were developed to help mitigate safety risk prior to flight (e.g., during flight and mission planning). Results of testing summarize (1) validation activities to raise the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and (2) evaluation activities where the capabilities were applied to flight/mission planning procedures and used by operators/pilots. For the latter, flight plans were automatically assessed, and operators/pilots were notified of hazardous flight segments so as to enable adjustment of the flight plan and re-evaluation, and/or to better inform go/no-go decisions. Capabilities addressed hazards associated with power consumption, third-party risk, wind, navigation system performance, radiofrequency interference, and proximity to geo-spatial threats (e.g., buildings, trees, and no-fly zones). In-flight: Flight experiments tested capabilities that detect and respond to hazards encountered during flight. In the first series, safety hazards were monitored and assessed onboard, and system-generated mitigation maneuvers were recorded (but not acted upon by the vehicle). In the second series, mitigation maneuver commands directed the aircraft in response to safety hazards (i.e., auto-mitigation). The sUAS used for testing is described in full, as is the test architecture, which included commercial avionics, research avionics, and onboard software designed to detect, assess, and respond to hazards. The onboard system was designed as a run-time assurance framework, consistent with [2] and supportive of both supervisory and automated modes. The primary functions included: real-time risk assessment (RTRA), auto-pilot monitoring, constraint monitoring, and contingency select/triggering. RTRA performs integrated risk assessment considering data from several hazard-related monitors (e.g., battery, motors, navigation, communications, population density, and loss-of-control). Post-flight/off-line: Data monitored and recorded during flights can enable IASMS capabilities that execute after flights have completed (or “off-line”). These include: (1) the ability to identify anomalies and trends that may only be observable when comparing data spanning a number of similar flights; (2) the ability to update and validate pre-flight and in-flight capabilities and any underlying models to improve their performance; (3) the ability to report anomalies/off-nominals that may indicate design changes or maintenance actions are needed; and (4) the ability for humans involved in operations to report safety-relevant observations to help in understanding the flight data and/or the operational context of a flight. Progress on three such capabilities is summarized; the first investigates anomaly detection given a limited set of flight logs and applies an approach previously used for space operations. The second explores what could be identified using a larger set of flight logs, including from web-based forums where flight logs are posted by sUAS autopilot users. The third creates a new means of collecting information on UAS incidents and accidents via the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS).

sUAS↗

Implementing an Objectives-Driven, Risk-Informed, and Case-Assured Approach to Safety and Mission Success at NASA

NASA is developing a “Standard for Assurance of Space Flight Safety and Mission Success” that implements an objectives-driven, risk-informed, and case-assured approach to safety and mission success (S&MS) for NASA space flight programs and projects. The standard aligns with the philosophy of risk leadership that has recently been established in NASA policy to assure acceptable levels of flight crew safety and mission success risk. It is consistent with existing NASA risk management requirements and is compatible with NASA program management and systems engineering requirements. The methodology described in the standard is presented in terms of an S&MS assurance framework that is designed to allow substantial flexibility in the specific means by which programs and projects achieve acceptable mission S&MS risk. Such flexibility is necessary to accommodate the increasingly broad range of acquisition strategies employed by NASA, including commercial transportation services, as well as to accommodate the increasingly rapid evolution of space flight-related technologies and practices. A key feature of the S&MS assurance framework is the specification of S&MS success criteria for each life-cycle review (LCR). The S&MS assurance case is structured around these criteria, the satisfaction of which indicates that the program/project is adhering to the S&MS risk posture. This enables the evolving S&MS assurance case to be used as a fundamental program/project submittal at each LCR, where its inherent structure of argument, supported by evidence, directly supports the evaluation of the program/project with respect to the S&MS success criteria, and by extension, the S&MS risk posture. As such, the S&MS assurance case is integral to program/project systems engineering, risk management, and S&MS oversight activities, and provides the principal basis for S&MS risk acceptance by the Decision Authority throughout the program/project life cycle.

Risk Posture↗

DVB-S2 Demonstration Testing for Enhancing Data Rates for CubeSat/SmallSat Missions

The number of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) CubeSat/SmallSat missions is expected to grow rapidly in the next decade. High data rate is in increasing demanded for science missions, especially for mother/daughter CubeSat constellations. As the number of spacecraft on a ground network grows, loading could be reduced by limiting contact time per day, which is enabled by higher data rates. There is also a need to communicate direct to earth from space from longer distances than low earth orbit (LEO) with CubeSats. These challenges motivate the need for bandwidth and power efficient modulation and coding techniques. Today, DVB-S2 is an industry communications standard for larger satellites. DVB-S2 uses power and bandwidth efficient modulation and coding techniques to deliver performance approaching theoretical limits of RF channels. NASA Near Earth Network (NEN) is conducting demonstration testing at Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) in spring 2019 for CubeSat/SmallSat missions for enhancing data rate performance in NASAs allocated S-band 5 MHz channel. The ultimate goal is to upgrade NEN with DVB-S2 for increasing science data return, and enabling of greater numbers of CubeSats.This paper describes NEN DVB-S2 demonstration testing objectives and performance measurement results. DVB-S2 data rate performance in the NEN S-band 5 MHz channel is presented. Simulation analysis for the expected maximum data rate performance with the DVB-S2 signal family including multiple modulations and codes are presented. Link margin analysis for a typical CubeSat/SmallSat with a 1W/2W power amplifier/patch antenna using DVB-S2 for NEN S-band is discussed. The demonstration testing configurations at NEN Wallops station is described. Results of the demonstration testing are compared with other evolving radios for SmallSats and CubeSats in term of data rate and performance. There are a number of evolving S-band and X-band radios that are compatible with NEN. Some are integrated with commercial CubeSat/SmallSat busses. Some are flying for the first time with NEN in early 2019. The USRP B200mini transceiver S-band radio is one such radio. Results of streamlined compatibility testing with NEN in 2018, performance with the Technology Educational Satellite (TechEdSat-8) in flight in early 2019, potential to add DVB-S2 to the radio, and plans for a CubeSat using the radio for communication from 10 million kilometers from earth are discussed. Another evolving radio is the Syrlinks X-band radio. Results of compatibility testing with NEN in 2018, performance with the Sustained Ocean Color Observations using Nanosatellites (SOCON) in flight in early 2019, and potential for a future SOCON constellation are discussed.

Wong, Yen↗