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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Sawyer and Li (2013) developed a technique to derive the PBL height from micropulse lidar (MPL) backscatter measurements using combined wavelet covariance transform and iterative curve-fitting methods. The wavelet covariance transform method applies a Haar wavelet function to MPL backscatter signals (Brooks et al., 2003).
A 'pathfinder' plan to improve Halley's Comet targeting accuracy of ESA's Giotto spacecraft is proposed, by which optical data and orbit information from Soviet VEGA spacecraft are used to produce an updated ephemeris for Halley's Comet. Two versions of the plan are described and the increased targeting accuracy is determined through a linear covariance analysis. In both versions of the plan, NASA Deep Space Net VLBI measurements of VEGA position are exchanged for information from VEGA about its optical pointing angle and Doppler and ranging measurements which are then transmitted to Giotto. In the covariance analysis of targeting accuracy, it is found that by using pathfinder the error in Giotto-Halley targeting can be reduced from 500 to within 100 km. It is predicted that pathfinder will thus substantially improve the amount of data that Giotto will gather from its fly-by of Halley's Comet March 14, 1986.
Tropical and subtropical tropospheric ozone are important radiatively active species, with particularly large effects in the upper third of the troposphere. Temporal variability of O3 has proved difficult to simulate day by day in process models. Thus, individual roles of lightning, biomass burning, and other pollution in providing precursor NO(x), radicals, and chain carriers (CO, hydrocarbons) remain unquantified by simulation, and it is theoretically reasonable that individual roles are magnified by a joint synergy. We use wavelet analysis and Burg-algorithm maximum entropy spectral analyses to describe time-scales and correlation of ozone with proxies for processes controlling its concentration. Our empirical studies link time variations apparent in several datasets: the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) network stations (Nairobi, Fiji), and auxiliary series with power to explain ozone-determining processes, with some interpretation based on the TTO (Tropical Tropospheric Ozone) product derived from TOMS (the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer). The auxiliary series are The OTD/LIS(Optical Transient Detector/Lightning Imaging Sensor) measurements of the lightning NO(x) source, the OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation)measurement of high-topped clouds, and standard meteorological variables from the United States NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) and Data Assimilation Office analyses. Concentrating on equatorial ozone, we compare the statistical evidence on the variability of tropospheric ozone. Important variations occur on approximately two-week, two-month (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and annual scales, and relations with OLR suggest controls associated with continental clouds. Hence we are now using the Lightning Imaging Sensor data set to indicate NO(x) sources. We report initial results defining relative roles of the process mentioned affecting O3 using their covariance properties.
This paper examines various sources of error in MIT's improved top oil temperature rise over ambient temperature model and estimation process. The sources of error are the current parameter estimation technique, quantization noise, and post-processing of the transformer data. Results from this paper will show that an output error parameter estimation technique should be selected to replace the current least squares estimation technique. The output error technique obtained accurate predictions of transformer behavior, revealed the best error covariance, obtained consistent parameter estimates, and provided for valid and sensible parameters. This paper will also show that the output error technique should be used to minimize errors attributed to post-processing (decimation) of the transformer data. Models used in this paper are validated using data from a large transformer in service.
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model contains a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation system (WRF-Var), which allows a user to join data from multiple sources into one coherent analysis. WRF-Var combines observations with a background field traditionally generated using a previous model forecast through minimization of a cost function. In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations may be able to improve analyses and produce improved forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced space-based atmospheric sounding systems. The combined AIRS/AMSU system provides radiance measurements used as input to a sophisticated retrieval scheme which has been shown to produce temperature profiles with an accuracy of 1 K over 1 km layers and humidity profiles with accuracy of 15% in 2 km layers in both clear and partly cloudy conditions. The retrieval algorithm also provides estimates of the accuracy of the retrieved values at each pressure level, allowing the user to select profiles based on the required error tolerances of the application. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate high-resolution AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) version 2.2 using WRF-Var. The paper focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background field type using gen_be and an optimal methodology for ingesting AIRS temperature and moisture profiles as separate overland and overwater retrievals with different error characteristics in the WRF-Var. The AIRS thermodynamic profiles are obtained from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm and contain information about the quality of each temperature layer. The quality indicators are used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for each profile location and pressure level. Analyses are run to produce quasi-real-time regional weather forecasts over the continental U.S. The preliminary assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles will focus on intelligent use of the quality indicators, optimized tuning of the WRF-Var, and comparison of analysis soundings to radiosondes.
We develop for the first time a microscopic global nucleon-nucleus optical potential with quantified uncertainties suitable for analyzing nuclear reaction experiments at next-generation rare-isotope beam facilities. Within the improved local density approximation and without any adjustable parameters, we begin by computing proton-nucleus and neutron-nucleus optical potentials from a set of five nuclear forces from chiral effective field theory for 1800 target nuclei in the mass range 12 ≤ A ≤ 242 for energies between 0 MeV < E ≲ 150 MeV. We then parameterize a global optical potential for each chiral force that depends smoothly on the projectile energy as well as the target nucleus mass number and isospin asymmetry. Uncertainty bands for elastic scattering observables are generated from a full covariance analysis of the parameters entering in the description of our global optical potential and benchmarked against existing experimental data for stable target nuclei. Since our approach is purely microscopic, we anticipate a similar quality of the model for nucleon scattering on unstable isotopes.
Warming in the Arctic has been more apparent in the non-growing season than in the typical growing season. In this context, methane (CH 4 ) emissions in the non-growing season, particularly in the shoulder seasons, account for a substantial proportion of the annual budget. However, CH 4 emissions in spring and autumn shoulders are often underestimated by land models and measurements due to limited data availability and unknown mechanisms. This study investigates CH 4 emissions during spring thaw and autumn freeze using eddy covariance CH 4 measurements from three Arctic sites with multi-year observations. We find that the shoulder seasons contribute to about a quarter (25.6±2.3%, mean ± standard deviation) of annual total CH 4 emissions. Our study highlights the three to four times higher contribution of autumn freeze CH 4 emission to total annual emission than that of spring thaw. Autumn freeze exhibits significantly higher CH 4 flux (0.88±0.03 mg m -2 h -1 ) than spring thaw (0.48±0.04 mg m -2 h -1 ). The mean duration of autumn freeze (58.94±26.39 days) is significantly longer than that of spring thaw (20.94±7.79 days), which predominates the much higher cumulative CH 4 emission during autumn freeze (1212.31±280.39 mg m -2 yr -1 ) than that during spring thaw (307.39±46.11 mg m -2 yr -1 ). Near-surface soil temperatures cannot completely reflect the freeze-thaw processes in deeper soil layers and appears to have a hysteresis effect on CH 4 emissions from early spring thaw to late autumn freeze. Therefore, it is necessary to consider commonalities and differences in CH 4 emissions during spring thaw versus autumn freeze to accurately estimate CH 4 source from tundra ecosystems for evaluating carbon-climate feedback in Arctic.
Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF's), eigenvectors of the spatial cross-covariance matrix of a meteorological field, are reviewed with special attention given to the necessary weighting factors for gridded data and the sampling errors incurred when too small a sample is available. The geographical shape of an EOF shows large intersample variability when its associated eigenvalue is 'close' to a neighboring one. A rule of thumb indicating when an EOF is likely to be subject to large sampling fluctuations is presented. An explicit example, based on the statistics of the 500 mb geopotential height field, displays large intersample variability in the EOF's for sample sizes of a few hundred independent realizations, a size seldom exceeded by meteorological data sets.
Results of covariance analyses are presented for the determination of baseline vectors of length from 150 m to 4000 km. The data are doubly differenced ranges derived from the signals transmitted by the satellites of the Global Positioning System. The modeling of various error sources is described. The results indicate the low cost baseline determination system is capable of subdecimeter accuracy for baselines up to 1000 km in length.
The study presents an error budget for Delta differential one-way range (Delta-DOR) measurements between two spacecraft. Such observations, made between a planetary orbiter (or lander) and another spacecraft approaching that planet, would provide a powerful target-relative angular tracking data type for approach navigation. Accuracies of about 5 nrad should be possible for a pair of X-band spacecraft incorporating 40-MHz DOR tone spacings, while accuracies approaching 1 nrad will be possible if the spacecraft incorporate Ka-band downlinks with DOR tone spacings of order 250 MHz. Operational advantages of this data type are discussed, and ground system requirements needed to enable S/C-S/C Delta-DOR observations are outlined. A covariance analysis is presented to examine the potential navigation improvement for this scenario. The results show factors of 2-3 improvement in spacecraft targeting over conventional Doppler, range, and quasar-relative VLBI, along with reduced sensitivity to ephemeris uncertainty and other systematic errors.
A computer-accessible catalog of submillimeter, millimeter, and microwave spectral lines in the frequency range between 0 and 10,000 GHz (i.e., wavelengths longer than 30 micrometers) is described. The catalog can be used as a planning or as an aid in the identification and analysis of observed spectral lines. The information listed for each spectral line includes the frequency and its estimated error, the intensity, the lower state energy, and the quantum number assignment. This edition of the catalog has information on 206 atomic and molecular species and includes a total of 630,924 lines. The catalog was constructed by using theoretical least square fits of published spectral lines to accepted molecular models. The associated predictions and their estimated errors are based upon the resultant fitted parameters and their covariances. Future versions of this catalog will add more atoms and molecules and update the present listings as new data appear. The catalog is available as a magnetic data tape recorded in card images, with one card image per spectral line, from the National Space Science Data Center, located at Goddard Space Flight Center.
The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is the latest reanalysis produced by GMAO, and provides global data spanning the period 1980-present. The atmospheric data assimilation component of MERRA-2 used a 3D-Var scheme, which was operational at the time of its design. Since then, a Hybrid 3D-Var, then a Hybrid 4D-EnVar were implemented, adding an ensemble component to the data assimilation scheme. In this work, we will be examining the benefits of using hybrid ensemble flow-dependent covariances to represent errors and uncertainties in historic periods. Specifically, periods of pre- and post-satellites, as well as periods of active tropical cyclone seasons. Finally, we will also be exploring the use of adaptive localization scales.
Plants influence the atmosphere through fluxes of carbon, water and energy, and can intensify drought through land–atmosphere feedback effects. The diversity of plant functional traits in forests, especially physiological traits related to water (hydraulic) transport, may have a critical role in land–atmosphere feedback, particularly during drought. Here we combine 352 site-years of eddy covariance measurements from 40 forest sites, remote-sensing observations of plant water content and plant functional-trait data to test whether the diversity in plant traits affects the response of the ecosystem to drought. We find evidence that higher hydraulic diversity buffers variation in ecosystem flux during dry periods across temperate and boreal forests. Hydraulic traits were the predominant significant predictors of cross-site patterns in drought response. By contrast, standard leaf and wood traits, such as specific leaf area and wood density, had little explanatory power. Our results demonstrate that diversity in the hydraulic traits of trees mediates ecosystem resilience to drought and is likely to have an important role in future ecosystem–atmosphere feedback effects in a changing climate.
A practical formulation is proposed for parameter estimation using the filter-error method, which is a maximum-likelihood estimator for dynamic systems having both process and measurement noise inputs. The novelty of the proposed formulation is that by accurately estimating the measurement noise covariance matrix using a time series analysis method, the remaining unknowns (which include the unknown parameters in the state-space matrices and the process noise covariance matrix) become decorrelated and can be estimated simultaneously in a straightforward manner. The approach is demonstrated using simulation data and flight test data from a subscale airplane. Results indicate that proposed algorithm can obtain accurate modeling results when both measurement noise and process noise are present in the data.
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) are all hyper-spectral satellite sensors with thousands of spectral channels. Top of atmospheric radiance spectra measured by these sensors contain high information content on atmospheric, cloud, and surface properties. Exploring high information content contained in these high spectral resolution spectra is a challenging task due to computation e ort involved in modeling thousands of spectral channels. Usually, only very small fractions (4{10 percent) of the available channels are included in physical retrieval systems or numerical weather forecast (NWP) satellite data assimilations. We will describe a method of simultaneously retrieving atmospheric temperature, moisture, cloud, and surface properties using all available spectral channels without sacrificing computational speed. The essence of the method is to convert channel radiance spectra into super-channels by an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) transformation. Because the EOFs are orthogonal to each other, about 100 super-channels are adequate to capture the information content of the radiance spectra. A Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) developed at NASA Langley Research Center is used to calculate both the super-channel magnitudes and derivatives with respect to atmospheric profiles and other properties. There is no need to perform EOF transformations to convert super channels back to spectral space at each iteration step for a one-dimensional variational retrieval or a NWP data assimilation system. The PCRTM forward model is also capable of calculating radiative contributions due to multiple-layer clouds. The multiple scattering effects of the clouds are efficiently parameterized. A physical retrieval algorithm then performs an inversion of atmospheric, cloud, and surface properties in super channel domain directly therefore both reducing the computational need and preserving the information content of the IASI measurements. The inversion algorithm is based on a non-linear Levenberg-Marquardt method with climatology covariance matrices and a priori information as constraints. One advantage of this approach is that it uses all information content from the hyper-spectral data so that the retrieval is less sensitive to instrument noise and eliminates the need for selecting a sub-set of the channels.
Reliable soil water content (SWC) data are essential for understanding dryland ecosystem dynamics, but high-frequency SWC sensors often fail, creating gaps in critical datasets. To address this, we developed a Bayesian mixture model that imputes missing SWC using both linear interpolation and an ecosystem water balance model (SOILWAT2), tested across six AmeriFlux eddy covariance tower sites in the New Mexico Elevation Gradient, demonstrating its effectiveness in reconstructing SWC patterns while providing insights into the factors driving SWC variability. Daily volumetric soil water content (SWC) data are provided as csv-formatted spreadsheets for the six AmeriFlux sites (US-Seg, US-Ses, US-Wjs, US-Mpi, US-Vcp, and US-Vcs). For each site there is an observed SWC file (site_SWC_gapfill.csv) and a file that contains imputed SWC (imputed_SWC_site.csv). The observed SWC files contain temperature corrected sensor values, tower precipitation data, as well as outputs from SOILWAT2 simulations that were used to impute SWC. The imputed files contain the original observed SWC values and the imputed missing SWC values. When SWC was missing from the original data, the missing value was imputed based on the Bayesian imputation mixture model. The posterior mean of all imputed values is reported as "mean_X". When the observed SWC was NOT missing, mean_X = observed SWC value (original data). The standard deviation, 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile for the imputed values are also reported in the imputed files. There are readme text files for each file type explaining the contents of each column.
Two fully processed test tapes were enhanced and evaluated at scales up to 1:10,000, using both hardcopy output and interactive screen display. A large scale, the Detroit, Michigan scene shows evidence of an along line data slip every sixteenth line in TM channel 2. Very large scale products generated in false color using channels 1,3, and 4 should be very acceptable for interpretation at scales up to 1:50,000 and useful for change mapping probably up to scale 1:24,000. Striping visible in water bodies for both natural and color products indicates that the detector calibration is probably performing below preflight specification. For a set of 512 x 512 windows within the NE Arkansas scene, the variance-covariance matrices were computed and principal component analyses performed. Initial analysis suggests that the shortwave infrared TM 5 and 6 channels are a highly significant data source. The thermal channel (TM 7) shows negative correlation with TM 1 and 4.
We present a map of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential reconstructed from observations taken during the 2019 and 2020 seasons with the third-generation camera on the South Pole Telescope (SPT), covering the $1500\,{\rm deg}^{2}$ SPT-3G Main field, referred to as the SPT-3G D1 dataset. From the multi-frequency temperature and polarization data, we reconstruct the CMB lensing field using a quadratic estimator that jointly accounts for the $T$, $E$, and $B$ fields and their covariance. The resulting lensing map is dominated by polarization information for $L \lesssim 600$ and provides the highest signal-to-noise measurement per mode reported to date. With nuisance parameters fixed to their best-fit values, we measure a lensing amplitude consistent with unity at $2\%$ precision relative to the $Λ$CDM model that best fits the combined Planck, ACT DR6, and SPT-3G D1 $TT/TE/EE$ likelihoods (${\rm CMB}_{\rm SPA}$). We further measure the structure-growth parameter $σ_{8}Ω_{\rm m}^{0.25}$ to be $0.6046\pm0.0096$ from the SPT-3G D1 lensing spectrum alone and $0.6020\pm0.0084$ when combined with ACT DR6 and Planck PR4 CMB lensing. By further combining this with ${\rm CMB}_{\rm SPA}$ and the latest DESI DR2 BAO data, we obtain $\sum m_ν < 0.072\,\mathrm{eV}$ (95% C.L.) when allowing the neutrino mass to vary within $Λ$CDM. Compared with previous work, the better agreement of our measurement with DESI DR2 BAO yields both this relaxed upper bound and reduced ($\mathord{\sim}2σ$) preferences for nonzero spatial curvature and for deviations of $(w_0,w_a)$ from the $Λ$CDM expectation. When we combine CMB lensing with the DES Y3 3$\times$2pt analysis, we obtain $S_{8}=0.811\pm0.011$, corresponding to a $1.4\%$ constraint on the late-time clustering amplitude. This precision is competitive with that obtained from the primary CMB within $Λ$CDM.