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Over the last several decades, engineers at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory have developed a collection of analytical tools to design missions to Earth orbit, the moon, sun, planets and various other bodies in our solar system, and beyond.
In Spring of 2005, the NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) was engaged by the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to peer review the suite of analytical tools being developed to support the determination of impact and damage tolerance of the Orbiter Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The NESC formed an independent review team with the core disciplines of materials, flight sciences, structures, mechanical analysis and thermal analysis. The Math Model Tools reviewed included damage prediction and stress analysis, aeroheating analysis, and thermal analysis tools. Some tools are physics-based and other tools are empirically-derived. Each tool was created for a specific use and timeframe, including certification, real-time pre-launch assessments. In addition, the tools are used together in an integrated strategy for assessing the ramifications of impact damage to tile and RCC. The NESC teams conducted a peer review of the engineering data package for each Math Model Tool. This report contains the summary of the team observations and recommendations from these reviews.
The Imaging Wind and Rain Arborne Profilers (IWRAP) is a dual-frequency, conically-scanning Doppler radar that measures high-resolution, dual-polarized, multi-beam C- and Ku-band reflectivity and Doppler velocity profiles of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) within the inner core of hurricanes.From the datasets acquired during the 2002 through 20O5 hurricane seasons as part of the ONR Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST) program and the NOAA/NESDIS Ocean Winds and Rain experiments, very high resolution radar observations of hurricanes have been acquired and made available to the CBLAST community. Of particular interest am the ABL wind fields and 3-D structures found within the inner core of hurricanes. As a result of these analysis, a limitation in the ability to retrieve the ABL wind field at very low altitudes was identified. This paper shows how this limitation has been removed and presents initial results demonstrating its new capabilities to derive the ABL wind field within the inner are of hurricanes to much lower altitudes than the ones the original system was capable of.
Human-computer interaction (HCI) encompasses all the methods by which humans and computer-based systems communicate, share information, and accomplish tasks. When HCI is poorly designed, crews have difficulty entering, navigating, accessing, and understanding information. HCI has rarely been studied in an operational spaceflight context, and detailed performance data that would support evaluation of HCI have not been collected; thus, we draw much of our evidence from post-spaceflight crew comments, and from other safety-critical domains like ground-based power plants, and aviation. Additionally, there is a concern that any potential or real issues to date may have been masked by the fact that crews have near constant access to ground controllers, who monitor for errors, correct mistakes, and provide additional information needed to complete tasks. We do not know what types of HCI issues might arise without this "safety net". Exploration missions will test this concern, as crews may be operating autonomously due to communication delays and blackouts. Crew survival will be heavily dependent on available electronic information for just-in-time training, procedure execution, and vehicle or system maintenance; hence, the criticality of the Risk of Inadequate HCI. Future work must focus on identifying the most important contributing risk factors, evaluating their contribution to the overall risk, and developing appropriate mitigations. The Risk of Inadequate HCI includes eight core contributing factors based on the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS): (1) Requirements, policies, and design processes, (2) Information resources and support, (3) Allocation of attention, (4) Cognitive overload, (5) Environmentally induced perceptual changes, (6) Misperception and misinterpretation of displayed information, (7) Spatial disorientation, and (8) Displays and controls.
Mars sample return is a bold concept, which entails gathering a varied, scientifically-relevant collection of Martian rock core samples and bringing them to Earth for analysis. To support this endeavor, the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is developing the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), which is responsible for getting the collected samples off the planet. The MAV Preliminary Architecture Assessment (PAA) study is designing two vehicle architectures based on different propulsion configurations: a two-stage solid-solid concept, and a hybrid concept. Given different thrust profiles for the two configurations, each concept uses a unique trajectory to reach the same orbit. In support of the PAA, The MSFC Natural Environments Branch (EV44) was asked to produce tables of atmospheric parameters along each of the two trajectories. The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an EV44 tool that is ideally suited for this analysis. Mars-GRAM will continue supporting MAV development in future design cycles.
The planetary protection discipline aims to minimize the microbial contamination on spacecraft to prevent the inadvertent contamination of other planetary bodies, known as forward planetary protection (PP). Planetary protection probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) relies on two core methodologies-the contamination probability event tree analysis and statistical parameter estimation. Planetary protection engineers combine several techniques to estimate the bioburden present on spacecraft components. A direct assay to enumerate CFU (colony forming units) is the preferred methodology, but given a similar processing environment the bioburden present on certain components is inferred using: (1) a NASA defined bioburden estimate based upon the biological cleanliness of the manufacturing/assembly environment or (2) sampled data from a similar spacecraft component. The paper presents an empirical Bayesian framework to systematically treat bioburden estimation and its uncertainties on different levels starting with measurement procedures to combining different components to subsystems and whole spacecraft. It is shown that the Bayesian approach can effectively handle estimations and their uncertainties at different levels and produce a reliable estimate for bioburden to be used to evaluate the probability of contamination.
Thermal Hydraulic disaggregation of Soil Moisture (THySM) algorithm was implemented to downscale NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Enhanced soil moisture (SM) product to 1 km over the continental United States (CONUS). This algorithm was developed by combining thermal inertia theory with a soil hydraulic-based approach that considers fine-scale SM spatial distribution driven by both heat fluxes and hydraulic conductivity in soils. Relative soil wetness values were estimated using land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index for the thermal inertia model and using soil properties for the hydraulic model. The relative soil wetness values at 1 km from both models were then combined by using weighting functions whereby the spatial distribution of SM was governed more by thermal fluxes during times of strong heat transport and infiltration during moisture abundant soil conditions. THySM values were evaluated using in situ SM measurements from SMAP Core Validation Sites (CVS), the USDA Soil Climate Analysis Network, and the NOAA Climate Reference Network over CONUS. THySM shows higher accuracy than the SMAP / Sentinel-1 (SPL2SMAP_S) 1 km SM product when compared to in situ measurements. The accuracy of THySM is 0.048 m3/m3 based on unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE), outperforming SPL2SMAP_S by 0.01-0.02 m3/m3. The ubRMSE of THySM 1km SM over the SMAP grassland/rangeland-dominated CVS sites is better than 0.04 m3/m3, which meets the SMAP mission SM accuracy requirement applied at 9 and 36 km.
Coastal marshes are efficient ecosystems providing a multitude of benefits for invertebrates, birds, fish and humans alike. Yet despite these benefits, wetlands are threatened by anthropogenic inputs such as human wastewater which contain high levels of nitrogen (N). Increased nitrogen loads cause eutrophication and hypoxia in estuaries leading to further degradation of these valuable ecosystems that are already stressed by sea level rise and climate change. Policies to protect wetlands via wastewater treatments are reactive rather than proactive and a growing body of research shows that characteristics associated with population health and economic activity can be identified in wastewater. Analysis of a 2-m salt marsh sediment core reveals δN15 signatures indicative of human population rise and connects human impact to ecosystem health. Using key X-ray fluorescence (XRF), pollen, sediment and nitrogen signatures along the core, a robust chronology was produced dating back to 1700. This result was coupled with population data to observe the relationship between δN15 levels and population over three centuries. There is a statistically significant positive correlation between δN15 and population. Other external factors such as federal government policies (regulating clean water) show a clear reduction in this association but the use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer masks the strength of this relationship. Further research to refine the relationship between population and δN15 could be beneficial in predicting nitrogen loads as human population grows, which in turn would create a proactive system to protect our coastal ecosystems.
A new transport solver option based on the hybrid FEM (HFEM) was implemented in GRIFFIN, the MOOSE-based reactor analysis code, as an effort to support routine core design calculations for advanced reactor applications. The HFEM formulation with P{sub N} (spherical harmonics expansion), akin to the variational nodal method, is effective for solving a spatially homogenized problem with strong transport effect. The residual and Jacobian evaluations of the HFEM weak form were derived and successfully implemented in GRIFFIN, having the diffusion and the PN options available in the new HFEM based transport solver. The performance was tested with the simplified ABTR benchmark problems. The results indicate that the HFEM-based transport solver is a feasible option for solving problems with spatially homogenized and strong streaming by providing superior accuracy with a proper p-refinement. (authors)
In this work, we examine the evolution of events occurring when a Li metal surface is in contact with a 2 M solution of a Li salt in a solvent or mixture of solvents, via classical molecular dynamics simulations with a reactive force field allowing bond breaking and bond forming. The main events include Li oxidation and electrolyte reduction along with expansion of the Li surface layers forming a porous phase that is the basis for the formation of the solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) components. Nucleation of the main SEI components (LiF, Li oxides, and some organics) is characterized. The analysis clearly reveals the details of these physical–chemical events as a function of time, during 20 nanoseconds. The effects of the chemistry of the electrolyte on Li oxidation and dissolution in the liquid electrolyte, and SEI nucleation and structure are identified by testing two salts: LiPF 6 and LiCF 3 SO 3 , and various solvents including ethers and carbonates and mixtures of them. The kinetics and thermodynamics of Li 6 F, the core nuclei in the LiF crystal, are studied by analysis of the MD trajectories, and via density functional theory calculations respectively. The SEI formed in this computational experiment is the “native” film that would form upon contact of the Li foil with the liquid electrolyte. As such, this work is the first in a series of computational experiments that will help elucidate the intricate interphase layer formed during battery cycling using metal anodes.
The Permian/Triassic (P/Tr) boundary (251.4 +/- 3 Myr) is marked by the most severe mass extinction in the geologic record. Recently, precise absolute dating has bracketed the marine extinctions and associated carbon-isotope anomaly within less than 1 Myr. We improve this resolution through high-resolution stratigraphy across the P/Tr boundary in the 331-m Gartnerkofel-1 core and nearby Reppwand outcrop section (Carnic Alps, Austria) utilizing FFT and wavelet timeseries analyses of cyclic components in down-hole core logs of density and natural gamma-ray intensity, and carbon-isotopic ratios of bulk samples. The wavelet analysis indicates continuity of deposition across the P/Tr boundary interval, and the timeseries analyses show evidence for persistent cycles in the ratio of approximately 40: 10: 4.7: 2.3 meters, correlated with Milankovitch-band orbital cycles of approximately 412: 100: 40: 20 kyr (eccentricity 1 and 2, obliquity, and precession), and giving a consistent average sedimentation rate of approximately 10 cm/1,000 yr. Milankovitch periods in delta C-13 and density in these shallow-water carbonates were most likely the result of climatically induced oscillations of sea level and climate, coupled with changes in ocean circulation and productivity, that affected sedimentation. Fluctuations in gamma radiation reflect varying input of clay minerals and the presence of shaly interbeds. Throughout the P/Tr boundary interval in the core, the 100,000-year eccentricity cycle seems to be dominant. Weaker obliquity and precession cycles are in line with the location of the Austrian section in the latest Permian, close to the Equator in the western bight of the Tethys, where obliquity and precessional effects on seasonal contrast might be subdued. Using the improved resolution provided by cycle analysis in the GK-1 core, we find that the dramatic change in the faunal record that marks the P/Tr boundary takes place over less than 6m, or less than 60,000 years. In the nearby Reppwand outcrop section, the same faunal changes occurs over only 0.8 m or about 8,000 years, close to the limit of time-resolution induced by bioturbation and reworking in these sediments. The sharp negative global carbon-isotope shift took place within less than or equal to 40,000 yr, and the isotope excursions persisted for approximately 480,000 yr into the Early Triassic. The results indicate that the severe marine faunal event that marks the P/Tr boundary was very sudden, perhaps less than the resolution window in the GK-1 core, and suggest a catastrophic cause. The wavelet-analysis approach to high-resolution cyclostratigraphy can be applied to other P/Tr boundary sections, and when combined with precise absolute dating and magnetostratigraphic methods promises a significant increase in resolution in determining the correlation and tempo of the end-Permian extinctions and related events worldwide.
A three-dimensional small disturbance transonic analysis code has been coupled with a three-dimensional integral boundary layer code. A scheme was developed to interact the two codes through the use of a controlling module. The resulting hybrid code does not increase the costs or computer core requirements over that of the previous capabilities of the analysis code, which used a two-dimensional boundary layer analysis to model viscous effects. Several configurations have been analyzed and results compared against both experimental data and computational results using the two-dimensional viscous model. Results indicate good agreement with experimental data when using the three-dimensional interaction scheme, with the most marked improvement in the correlations observed for wing pressure coefficient predictions in the lower surface cusp region for supercritical wings.
Plans to build a lunar base are presently being studied with a number of considerations. One of the most important considerations is qualifying the presence of water on the Moon. The existence of water on the Moon implies that future lunar settlements may be able to use this resource to produce things such as drinking water and rocket fuel. Due to the very high cost of transporting these materials to the Moon, in situ production could save billions of dollars in operating costs of the lunar base. Scientists have suggested that the polar regions of the Moon may contain some amounts of water ice in the regolith. Six possible mission scenarios are suggested which would allow lunar polar soil samples to be collected for analysis. The options presented are: remote sensing satellite, two unmanned robotic lunar coring missions (one is a sample return and one is a data return only), two combined manned and robotic polar coring missions, and one fully manned core retrieval mission. One of the combined manned and robotic missions has been singled out for detailed analysis. This mission proposes sending at least three unmanned robotic landers to the lunar pole to take core samples as deep as 15 meters. Upon successful completion of the coring operations, a manned mission would be sent to retrieve the samples and perform extensive experiments of the polar region. Man's first step in returning to the Moon is recommended to investigate the issue of lunar polar water. The potential benefits of lunar water more than warrant sending either astronauts, robots or both to the Moon before any permanent facility is constructed.
A 0.2 arc second phase shift in the 18.6 year forced precession of the lunar figure was inferred from analysis of lunar laser ranging data. The source of the phase shift is either viscous friction at a lunar core mantle boundary or solid friction caused by tidal flexing of the Moon by the Earth. Core mantle viscous coupling will explain the signature if the core radius R sub c approximately equals 330 km. On the other hand, solid friction can account for the signature only if the lunar solid friction 0 approximately equals 30 is abnormally small compared with that observed for, say, Mars (approximately equals 100 - 200). Although the inferred core radius is certainly within the limits imposed by the Apollo seismic experiment, it is significantly smaller than estimates of order 400-500 km from electromagnetic sounding. How accurate is the estimate of the R sub c derived from the phase shift? The effect of uncertainties in the frictional coupling mechanism, core density and ellipticity on the inferred core radius are discussed. The excitation of lunar free librations by core turbulence vis-a-vis other mechanisms (e.g., cometary or asteroidal impacts) and the influence of changes in lunar precession in the past on lunar dynamo generation are also examined.
The nonlinear behavior of gravity-mode oscillations driven by He-3-destroying reactions in the solar core has been examined by numerically integrating equations describing a very simplified model. The results of a previous bifurcation analysis, which suggest that such oscillations are unlikely to attain amplitudes sufficient to trigger core convection, are verified. These results are extended to models whose nuclear reaction rates and thermal stratification represent the core somewhat more accurately. Nonlinear processes give rise to a preference for the oscillations to develop as standing waves rather than traveling waves, thus breaking the degeneracy between these two types of motion which exists in linearized theory. Study of the large-amplitude behavior of the oscillations is hindered by a tendency for the model to become thermally unstable.
Abstract Using PREM as a reference model for the Earth density distribution we investigate the sensitivity of ORCA detector to deviations of the Earth (i) outer core (OC) density, (ii) inner core (IC) density, (iii) total core density, and (iv) mantle density, from their respective PREM densities. The analysis is performed by studying the effects of the Earth matter on the oscillations of atmospheric $$\nu _{\mu }$$ ν μ , $$\nu _e$$ ν e , $${\bar{\nu }}_\mu $$ ν ¯ μ and $${\bar{\nu }}_e$$ ν ¯ e . We present results which illustrate the dependence of the ORCA sensitivity to the OC, IC, core and mantle densities on the type of systematic uncertainties used in the analysis, on the value of the atmospheric neutrino mixing angle $$\theta _{23}$$ θ 23 , on whether the Earth mass constraint is implemented or not, and on the way it is implemented, and on the type – with normal ordering (NO) or inverted ordering (IO) – of the light neutrino mass spectrum. We show, in particular, that in the “most favorable” NO case of implemented Earth mass constraint, “minimal” systematic errors and $$\sin ^2\theta _{23}=0.58$$ sin 2 θ 23 = 0.58 , ORCA can determine, e.g., the OC (mantle) density at $$3\sigma $$ 3 σ C.L. after 10 years of operation with an uncertainty of (− 18%)/+ 15% (of (− 6%)/+ 8%). In the “most disfavorable” NO case of “conservative” systematic errors and $$\sin ^2\theta _{23}=0.42$$ sin 2 θ 23 = 0.42 , the uncertainty on OC (mantle) density reads (− 43%)/+ 39% ((− 17%/+ 20%), while for for $$\sin ^2\theta _{23} = 0.50$$ sin 2 θ 23 = 0.50 and 0.58 it is noticeably smaller: (− 37)%/+ 30% and (− 30%)/+ 24% ((− 13%)/+ 16% and (− 11%/+ 14%)). We find also that the sensitivity of ORCA to the OC, core and mantle densities is significantly worse for IO neutrino mass spectrum.
Abstract In type-II superconductors, electronic states within magnetic vortices hold crucial information about the paring mechanism and can reveal non-trivial topology. While scanning tunneling microscopy/spectroscopy (STM/S) is a powerful tool for imaging superconducting vortices, it is challenging to isolate the intrinsic electronic properties from extrinsic effects like subsurface defects and disorders. Here we combine STM/STS with basic machine learning to develop a method for screening out the vortices pinned by embedded disorder in iron-based superconductors. Through a principal component analysis of large STS data within vortices, we find that the vortex-core states in Ba(Fe 0.96 Ni 0.04 ) 2 As 2 start to split into two categories at certain magnetic field strengths, reflecting vortices with and without pinning by subsurface defects or disorders. Our machine-learning analysis provides an unbiased approach to reveal intrinsic vortex-core states in novel superconductors and shed light on ongoing puzzles in the possible emergence of a Majorana zero mode.
The implementation of fast relativistic methods based on density functional theory, in conjunction with localized molecular orbital (LMO) based analysis, allows straightforward interpretations of NMR parameters in terms of contributions from core shells, lone pairs, and bonds, for compounds containing elements from across the periodic table. We present a conceptual review of a frequently used LMO analysis of NMR parameters calculated in the presence of spin-orbit interactions and other relativistic effects. An accompanying example focuses on the 15 N shielding in a heavy metal complex.