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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Observations of Deep Ionospheric F-Region Density Depletions with FPMU Instrumentation and Their Relationship with the Global Dynamics of the June 22-23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle. During this event, ionospheric F-region density measurements from the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) on board the International Space Station (ISS) show dramatic depletions in the post-sunset (nighttime) local time sector at equatorial latitudes starting in the main phase of the storm and persisting on several subsequent orbits into the next day. Putting these low-latitude measurements in context with the global dynamics of the storm, we will present results from simulations and observations in our efforts to better understand the effects of this storm on the different regions of the coupled ionosphere-magnetosphere. The consequences of the magnetospheric penetration electric field and their role in the occurrence of these equatorial spread F observations will be investigated through the results of the SAMI3-RCM numerical model, a coupled ionosphere-magnetosphere model with self-consistent large-scale electrodynamics. Specifically, we will investigate the transient signatures of the interplanetary magnetic field component, Bz, and its role in driving the global convection electric field and ionospheric density redistribution. Lastly, measurements from the AMPERE Birkeland currents, DMSP drift velocities and the particle flux dropouts observed from the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) will be correlated with the FPMU density depletions and each other. Together these observations and simulation results will be assembled to provide each region's context to the global dynamics and time evolution of the storm.

Coffey, Victoria↗
DOE OSTI2022

Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events

Extreme precipitation poses a major challenge for local governments, including the City and County of San Francisco, California, as flooding can damage and destroy infrastructure and property. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future precipitation projections are needed to provide the best possible information to decision makers. However, future changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation are uncertain, as current state-of-the-art global climate models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolutions that require the use of convective parameterization and have difficulty simulating observed extreme rainfall rates. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate how five historically impactful extreme precipitation events over the San Francisco Bay Area could change if similar events occurred in future climates. We found that changes in storm-total precipitation depend strongly on storm type. Precipitation associated with an atmospheric river (AR) accompanied by an extratropical cyclone (ETC) is projected to increase at a rate exceeding (by up to 1.5 times) the theoretical Clausius Clapeyron scaling of 6–7% per °C warming. On the other hand, future precipitation changes are weak or negative for events characterized by an AR only, despite increases in precipitable water and integrated vapor transport that are similar to those of the co-occurring AR and ETC events. The differences in the sign of future precipitation change between AR-only events and co-occurring AR and ETC events is instead linked with changes in mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Given that the majority of observed ARs are associated with an ETC, this research has important implications for future precipitation impacts over the Bay Area, as it indicates that storm-total precipitation associated with the most common type of storm event may increase by up to 26–37% in 2100 relative to historical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1978

Studies of satellite support to weather modification in the western US region

The applications of meteorological satellite data to both summer and winter weather modification programs are addressed. Appraisals of the capability of satellites to assess seedability, to provide real-time operational support, and to assist in the post-experiment analysis of a seeding experiment led to the incorporation of satellite observing systems as a major component in the Bureau of Reclamations weather modification activities. Satellite observations are an integral part of the South Park Area cumulus experiment (SPACE) which aims to formulate a quantitative hypothesis for enhancing precipitation from orographically induced summertime mesoscale convective systems (orogenic mesoscale systems). Progress is reported in using satellite observations to assist in classifying the important mesoscale systems, and in defining their frequency and coverage, and potential area of effect. Satellite studies of severe storms are also covered.

Cotton, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Thunderstorm cloud top dynamics as inferred from satellite observations and a cloud top parcel model

Thunderstorm top temperature-height structure and temperature-height conversion relations in the convective overshooting top region are examined using data from GOES IR, AVHRR, and aircraft overflights, and GOES stereoscopic observations. Using a Lagrangian one-dimensional cloud parcel model applied in the overshooting region, three classes of storm tops are described and the causes of their unique temperature-height structures are explored. Although the parcel model used does not fully reproduce the three-dimensional structure and dynamics of an evolving thunderstorm top, it is shown to crudely reproduce the parcel dynamics of updraft core parcels. The locations of cold points, high points, warm points, and the magnitude of cold-high offsets compare favorably between the model and the satellite observations.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Tropical Cyclogenesis in a Tropical Wave Critical Layer: Easterly Waves

The development of tropical depressions within tropical waves over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific is usually preceded by a "surface low along the wave" as if to suggest a hybrid wave-vortex structure in which flow streamlines not only undulate with the waves, but form a closed circulation in the lower troposphere surrounding the low. This structure, equatorward of the easterly jet axis, is identified herein as the familiar critical layer of waves in shear flow, a flow configuration which arguably provides the simplest conceptual framework for tropical cyclogenesis resulting from tropical waves, their interaction with the mean flow, and with diabatic processes associated with deep moist convection. The recirculating Kelvin cat's eye within the critical layer represents a sweet spot for tropical cyclogenesis in which a proto-vortex may form and grow within its parent wave. A common location for storm development is given by the intersection of the wave's critical latitude and trough axis at the center of the cat's eye, with analyzed vorticity centroid nearby. The wave and vortex live together for a time, and initially propagate at approximately the same speed. In most cases this coupled propagation continues for a few days after a tropical depression is identified. For easterly waves, as the name suggests, the propagation is westward. It is shown that in order to visualize optimally the associated Lagrangian motions, one should view the flow streamlines, or stream function, in a frame of reference translating horizontally with the phase propagation of the parent wave. In this co-moving frame, streamlines are approximately equivalent to particle trajectories. The closed circulation is quasi-stationary, and a dividing streamline separates air within the cat's eye from air outside.

Dunkerton, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Modeling of Convective-Stratiform Precipitation Processes: Sensitivity to Partitioning Methods and Numerical Advection Schemes

Six different convective-stratiform separation techniques, including a new technique that utilizes the ratio of vertical and terminal velocities, are compared and evaluated using two-dimensional numerical simulations of a tropical [Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE)] and midlatitude continental [Preliminary Regional Experiment for STORM-Central (PRESTORM)] squall line. The simulations are made using two different numerical advection schemes: 4th order and positive definite advection. Comparisons are made in terms of rainfall, cloud coverage, mass fluxes, apparent heating and moistening, mean hydrometeor profiles, CFADs (Contoured Frequency with Altitude Diagrams), microphysics, and latent heating retrieval. Overall, it was found that the different separation techniques produced results that qualitatively agreed. However, the quantitative differences were significant. Observational comparisons were unable to conclusively evaluate the performance of the techniques. Latent heating retrieval was shown to be sensitive to the use of separation technique mainly due to the stratiform region for methods that found very little stratiform rain. The midlatitude PRESTORM simulation was found to be nearly invariant with respect to advection type for most quantities while for TOGA COARE fourth order advection produced numerous shallow convective cores and positive definite advection fewer cells that were both broader and deeper penetrating above the freezing level.

Lang, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2004

Florida Thunderstorms: A Faucet of Reactive Nitrogen to the Upper Troposphere

During the NASA Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) enhanced mixing ratios of nitric oxide were measured in the anvils of thunderstorms and in clear air downwind of storm systems on flights of a Wl3-57F high-altitude aircraft. Mixing ratios greater than l0 - 20 times background were readily observed over distances of 25-120 km due to lightning activity. In many of the Florida storms deposition of NO occurred up to near the tropopause but major deposition usually occurred 1 - 2 km below the tropopause, or mostly within the visible anvil volume formed prior to storm decay. Observations from two storms of very different anvil size and electrical activity allowed estimates of the total mass of NO, vented to the middle and upper troposphere. Using the cloud-to ground (CG) flash accumulations from the National Lightning Detection Network, climatological intra-cloud (IC) to CG ratios, and assuming that CG and IC flashes were of equivalent efficiency for NO production, the ranges of production per flash for a moderate-sized and a large storm were (0.51 - 1.0) x l0(exp 26) and (2.3 - 3.1) x 10(exp 26) molecules NO/flash, respectively. Using the recently determined average global flash rate of 44 8, a gross extrapolation of these two storms to represent possible global annual production rates yield 1.6 - 3.2 and 7.3 - 9.9 Tg(N)/yr, respectively. If the more usual assumption is made that IC efficiency is l/l0th that of CG activity, the ranges of production for the moderate-sized and large storm were (1.3 - 2.7) x l0(exp 26) and (6.0 - 8.1) x l0(exp 26) molecules NO/CG flash, respectively. The estimates from the large storm may be high because there is indirect evidence that the IC/CG ratio was larger than would be derived from climatology. These two storms and others studied did not have flash rates that scaled as approx. H(sup 5) where H is the cloud top altitude. The observed CG flash accumulations and NO(x) mass production estimate for the month of July over the Florida area were compared with a representative 3D global Chemistry-Transport Model (CTMJ that uses the Price et al. lightning parameterization. For two land grid points representing the Florida peninsula the model compared well with the observations: CG flash rates were low by only a factor of approx. 2. When the model grid points included the coastal regions of Florida the flash accumulations were lower than observed by a factor of 3.4 - 4.6. It is recommended that models using the Price et al. parameterization allow any global coastal grid point to maintain the land rather than the marine flash rate parameterization. The convection in this CTM underestimated the actual cloud top heights over Florida by 1 - 2 km and thus the total lightning flash rates and the altitude range of reactive nitrogen deposition. Broad scale (20 - 120 km) median mixing ratios of NO within anvils over Florida were significantly larger than in storms previously investigated over Colorado and New Mexico.

Ridley, B.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Understanding the Relationships Between Lightning, Cloud Microphysics, and Airborne Radar-derived Storm Structure During Hurricane Karl (2010)

This study explores relationships between lightning, cloud microphysics, and tropical cyclone (TC) storm structure in Hurricane Karl (16 September 2010) using data collected by the NASA DC-8 and Global Hawk (GH) aircraft during NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment. The research capitalizes on the unique opportunity provided by GRIP to synthesize multiple datasets from two aircraft and analyze the microphysical and kinematic properties of an electrified TC. Five coordinated flight legs through Karl by the DC-8 and GH are investigated, focusing on the inner-core region (within 50km of the storm center) where the lightning was concentrated and the aircraft were well coordinated. GRIP datasets are used to compare properties of electrified and nonelectrified inner-core regions that are related to the noninductive charging mechanism, which is widely accepted to explain the observed electric fields within thunderstorms. Three common characteristics of Karl's electrified regions are identified: 1) strong updrafts of 10-20ms21, 2) deep mixed-phase layers indicated by reflectivities.30 dBZ extending several kilometers above the freezing level, and 3) microphysical environments consisting of graupel, very small ice particles, and the inferred presence of supercooled water. These characteristics describe an environment favorable for in situ noninductive charging and, hence, TC electrification. The electrified regions in Karl's inner core are attributable to a microphysical environment that was conducive to electrification because of occasional, strong convective updrafts in the eyewall.

Cloud mircophysics↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Super Tuesday Outbreak: Forecast Sensitivities to Single-Moment Microphysics Schemes

Forecast precipitation and radar characteristics are used by operational centers to guide the issuance of advisory products. As operational numerical weather prediction is performed at increasingly finer spatial resolution, convective precipitation traditionally represented by sub-grid scale parameterization schemes is now being determined explicitly through single- or multi-moment bulk water microphysics routines. Gains in forecasting skill are expected through improved simulation of clouds and their microphysical processes. High resolution model grids and advanced parameterizations are now available through steady increases in computer resources. As with any parameterization, their reliability must be measured through performance metrics, with errors noted and targeted for improvement. Furthermore, the use of these schemes within an operational framework requires an understanding of limitations and an estimate of biases so that forecasters and model development teams can be aware of potential errors. The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Spring Experiments have produced daily, high resolution forecasts used to evaluate forecast skill among an ensemble with varied physical parameterizations and data assimilation techniques. In this research, high resolution forecasts of the 5-6 February 2008 Super Tuesday Outbreak are replicated using the NSSL configuration in order to evaluate two components of simulated convection on a large domain: sensitivities of quantitative precipitation forecasts to assumptions within a single-moment bulk water microphysics scheme, and to determine if these schemes accurately depict the reflectivity characteristics of well-simulated, organized, cold frontal convection. As radar returns are sensitive to the amount of hydrometeor mass and the distribution of mass among variably sized targets, radar comparisons may guide potential improvements to a single-moment scheme. In addition, object-based verification metrics are evaluated for their utility in gauging model performance and QPF variability.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The polar ionosphere as a source of the storm time ring current

The transport of ions from the polar ionosphere to the inner magnetosphere during storm time conditions has been computed using a Monte Carlo diffusion code. The effect of the electrostatic turbulence assumed to be present during the substorm expansion phase was simulated by a process that accelerated the ions stochastically perpendicular to the magnetic field with a diffusion coefficient proportional to the rate of energization of the ions by the induced electric field. This diffusion process was continued as the ions were convected from the plasma sheet boundary layer to the double-spiral injection boundary. Inward of the injection boundary the ions were convected adiabatically. By using as input an O(+) flux of 2.8 x 10 to the 8th per sq cm per s (w greater than 10 eV) and an H(+) flux of 5.5 x 10 to the 8th per sq cm per s (w greater than .63 eV) the computed distribution functions of the ions in the ring current were found to be in good agreement, over a wide range in L (4-8), with measurements made with the ISEE 1 satellite during a storm. This O(+) flux and a large part of the H(+) flux appear to be consistent with the DE-1 and DE-2 satellite measurements of the polar ionospheric outflow during disturbed times.

Cladis, J. B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Changes in Lightning Characteristics as Hurricane Dorian (2019) Reached Peak Intensity

Previous work using land-based lightning detection networks and lightning imagers in low Earth orbit has established that lighting is a useful predictor of TC intensification. Increases in the number of lightning flashes in both the inner core and outer rainbands of hurricanes are linked to hurricane intensification. Sometimes, however, lightning outbreaks can occur in storms that weaken during or after the outbreak. Environmental conditions such as vertical wind shear and land interaction or inner-core structural changes such as secondary eyewall formation can account for some of this discrepancy. Hurricane Dorian (2019), however, exhibited a distinct inner-core lightning outbreak in a low-shear environment with minimal land interaction. The lightning flashes during this outbreak were located on the inner edge of the eyewall, which is not the expected location of enhanced convection during secondary eyewall formation. Regardless, Dorian weakened during and after this lightning outbreak. This presentation will analyze Dorian’s lightning evolution using data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the GOES-16 satellite. GLM provides continuous observations of not only the number and polarity of lightning flashes, but also the size and optical energy of the flashes. Here we show marked differences in the distributions of average flash area and total optical energy between the two most pronounced lightning outbreaks in Dorian’s lifetime: one while the storm was rapidly intensifying and another while the storm began to weaken. During intensification, lightning flashes were fewer but larger and more energetic, whereas during weakening, lightning flashes were much more numerous, but were smaller and less energetic. We present evidence that barotropic mixing between the eye and eyewall could have contributed to both the increase in inner-core lightning and the weakening of Dorian’s storm-scale maximum wind speed. These results suggest that average flash area and total optical energy could help to distinguish between lightning outbreaks that correspond to intensification and outbreaks that correspond to weakening.

Hurricanes↗
NASA NTRS1979

Motions of charged particles in the Magnetosphere under the influence of a time-varying large scale convection electric field

The motions of charged particles under the influence of the geomagnetic and electric fields were quite complex in the region of the inner magnetosphere. The Volland-Stern type large scale convection electric field was used successfully to predict both the plasmapause location and particle enhancements determined from Explorer 45 measurements. A time dependence in this electric field was introduced based on the variation in Kp for actual magnetic storm conditions. The particle trajectories were computed as they change in this time-varying electric field. Several storm fronts of particles of different magnetic moments were allowed to be injected into the inner magnetosphere from L = 10 in the equatorial plane. The motions of these fronts are presented in a movie format.

Smith, P. H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pre-Tropical Cyclone Squall Lines and the Connection to the Diurnal Cycle during Hurricane Laura (2020)

Previous studies on the tropical cyclone (TC) diurnal cycle have shown in observations and modeling the presence of outward propagating squall lines. These squall lines were observed in several TCs during the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Of these squall lines, one observed in Hurricane Laura made landfall over 14 hours prior to the hurricane’s eye. This squall was responsible for numerous tornado warnings, which disrupted preparations and evacuations ahead of the storm’s landfall. This study seeks to characterize these squall lines and their environmental and thermodynamic characteristics, determine whether they behave more like midlatitude squall lines or tropical cyclone rain bands, and assess the performance of the convection-allowing High Resolution Rapid Refresh model in forecasting them over the ocean and over land. By using a combination of operational radar data, a network of surface weather observations from land and sea, satellite data, and HRRR model output, this case will undergo an extensive evaluation based on criteria from past literature in order to better understand these features as a whole and in relation to the diurnal cycle.

Vivian L Brasfield↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pre-Tropical Cyclone Squall Lines and the Connection to the Diurnal Cycle in Hurricane Laura (2020)

Previous studies on the tropical cyclone (TC) diurnal cycle have shown in observations and modeling the presence of outward propagating squall lines. These squall lines were observed in several TCs during the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Of these squall lines, one observed in Hurricane Laura made landfall over 13 hours prior to the hurricane’s eye. This squall was responsible for numerous tornado warnings, which disrupted preparations and evacuations ahead of the storm’s landfall. This study seeks to characterize these squall lines and their environmental and thermodynamic characteristics, determine whether they behave more like midlatitude squall lines or tropical cyclone rain bands, and assess the performance of the convection-allowing High Resolution Rapid Refresh model in forecasting them over the ocean and over land. By using a combination of operational radar data, a network of surface weather observations from land and sea, satellite data, and HRRR model output, this case will undergo an extensive evaluation based on criteria from past literature in order to better understand these features as a whole and in relation to the diurnal cycle.

Vivian L Brasfield↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Observational Analysis of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Squall Lines and Relationship to the Diurnal Cycle

Previous studies on the tropical cyclone (TC) diurnal cycle have shown in observations and modeling the presence of outward propagating squall lines. These squall lines were observed in several TCs during recent Atlantic hurricane seasons. Of these squall lines, one observed in Hurricane Laura made landfall over 14 hours prior to the hurricane’s eye. This squall was responsible for 40 tornado warnings, which disrupted preparations and evacuations ahead of the storm’s landfall. This study seeks to characterize these squall lines and their environmental and thermodynamic characteristics, determine whether they behave more like midlatitude squall lines or tropical cyclone rain bands, and assess the performance of the convection-allowing High Resolution Rapid Refresh model in forecasting them over the ocean and over land. By using a combination of operational radar data, a network of surface weather observations from land and sea, satellite data, and HRRR model output, this case will undergo an extensive evaluation based on criteria from past literature in order to better understand these features as a whole and in relation to the diurnal cycle.

Vivian Brasfield↗
NASA NTRS2000

Dry Air Entrainment into Hurricane Earl

Hurricane Earl formed in the Gulf of Mexico in September 1998. It quickly was upgraded from a tropical disturbance to tropical storm status and then to a hurricane. Earl possessed hybrid (tropical and extratropical) characteristics throughout its lifetime. The system maintained and erratic track, which led to wide variability in the operational track forecasts. It eventually made landfall on the Florida panhandle on 2 September and raced northeastward. During August and September 1998, NASA conducted the third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3). The experiment was focused on studying hurricanes with an emphasis toward developing a better understanding of their intensification and motion. Earl provides a unique opportunity to utilize high spatial and temporal resolution data collected from the DC-8 and high altitude ER-2 NASA platforms, which flew over Earl as it made landfall. These data can also be put into broader view provided by other instruments from the Geosychronous Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellites. Hurricane Earl was affected by entrainment of dry air from the northwest. Hurricane Isis was intensifying and approaching the Mexican Pacific coast with its associated outflow potentially affecting the inflow into Earl as the storm neared Florida. In addition, a longwave synoptic trough circulation was present over the eastern U.S. Either or both of these could be responsible for the dry air into the system. This paper will focus on identifying the source of the dry by using upper-level wind and moisture fields derived from the GOES 6.7 um water vapor imagery. We will attempt to relate the large-scale observations to those from the NASA aircraft. An infrared instrument onboard the ER-2 also has a similar wavelength and may be able to confirm some of the GOES findings. In addition, a microwave radiometer with 4 channels focused on measuring precipitation and its associated ice scattering was also aboard the ER-2. The microwave observations will allow the authors to relate the entrainment to precipitation changes near the flight path of the aircraft.

Guillory, Anthony R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Entrainment of Upper Level Dry Air Into Hurricane Earl

Hurricane Earl formed in the Gulf of Mexico in September 1998. It quickly was upgraded from a tropical disturbance to tropical storm status and then to a hurricane. Earl possessed hybrid (tropical and extratropical) characteristics throughout its lifetime. The system maintained and erratic track, which led to wide variability in the operational track forecasts. It eventually made landfall on the Florida panhandle on 2 September and raced northeastward. During August and September 1998, NASA conducted the third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3). The experiment was focused on studying hurricanes with an emphasis toward developing a better understanding of their intensification and motion. Earl provides a unique opportunity to utilize high spatial and temporal resolution data collected from the DC-8 and high altitude ER-2 NASA platforms, which flew over Earl as it made landfall. These data can also be put into broader view provided by other instruments from the Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellites. Hurricane Earl was affected by entrainment of dry air from the northwest. Hurricane Isis was intensifying and approaching the Mexican Pacific coast with its associated outflow potentially affecting the inflow into Earl as the storm neared Florida. In addition, a longwave synoptic trough circulation was present over the eastern U.S. Either or both of these could be responsible for the dry air into the system. This paper will focus on identifying the source of the dry by using upper-level wind and moisture fields derived from the GOES 6.7 um water vapor imagery. We will attempt to relate the large-scale observations to those from the NASA aircraft. An infrared instrument onboard the ER-2 also has a similar wavelength and may be able to confirm some of the GOES findings. In addition, a microwave radiometer with 4 channels focused on measuring precipitation and its associated ice scattering was also aboard the ER-2. The microwave observations will allow the authors to relate the entrainment to precipitation changes near the flight path of the aircraft.

Guillory, Anthony R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Coarse, Intermediate and High Resolution Numerical Simulations of the Transition of a Tropical Wave Critical Layer to a Tropical Storm

Recent work has hypothesized that tropical cyclones in the deep Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins develop from within the cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wave critical layer located equatorward of the easterly jet axis. The cyclonic critical layer is thought to be important to tropical cyclogenesis because its cat's eye provides (i) a region of cyclonic vorticity and weak deformation by the resolved flow, (ii) containment of moisture entrained by the developing flow and/or lofted by deep convection therein, (iii) confinement of mesoscale vortex aggregation, (iv) a predominantly convective type of heating profile, and (v) maintenance or enhancement of the parent wave until the developing proto-vortex becomes a self-sustaining entity and emerges from the wave as a tropical depression. This genesis sequence and the overarching framework for describing how such hybrid wave-vortex structures become tropical depressions/storms is likened to the development of a marsupial infant in its mother's pouch, and for this reason has been dubbed the "marsupial paradigm". Here we conduct the first multi-scale test of the marsupial paradigm in an idealized setting by revisiting the Kurihara and Tuleya problem examining the transformation of an easterly wave-like disturbance into a tropical storm vortex using the WRF model. An analysis of the evolving winds, equivalent potential temperature, and relative vertical vorticity is presented from coarse (28 km), intermediate (9 km) and high resolution (3.1 km) simulations. The results are found to support key elements of the marsupial paradigm by demonstrating the existence of rotationally dominant region with minimal strain/shear deformation near the center of the critical layer pouch that contains strong cyclonic vorticity and high saturation fraction. This localized region within the pouch serves as the "attractor" for an upscale "bottom up" development process while the wave pouch and proto-vortex move together.

Montgomery, M. T.↗