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NASA NTRS2017

MATRIX-VBS (v1.0): Implementing an Evolving Organic Aerosol Volatility in an Aerosol Microphysics Model

The gas-particle partitioning and chemical aging of semi-volatile organic aerosol are presented in a newly developed box model scheme, where its effect on the growth, composition, and mixing state of particles is examined. The volatility-basis set (VBS) framework is implemented into the aerosol microphysical scheme MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state), which resolves mass and number aerosol concentrations and in multiple mixing-state classes. The new scheme, MATRIX-VBS, has the potential to significantly advance the representation of organic aerosols in Earth system models by improving upon the conventional representation as non-volatile particulate organic matter, often also with an assumed fixed size distribution. We present results from idealized cases representing Beijing, Mexico City, a Finnish forest, and a southeastern US forest, and investigate the evolution of mass concentrations and volatility distributions for organic species across the gas and particle phases, as well as assessing their mixing state among aerosol populations. Emitted semi-volatile primary organic aerosols evaporate almost completely in the intermediate-volatility range, while they remain in the particle phase in the low-volatility range. Their volatility distribution at any point in time depends on the applied emission factors, oxidation by OH radicals, and temperature. We also compare against parallel simulations with the original scheme, which represented only the particulate and non-volatile component of the organic aerosol, examining how differently the condensed-phase organic matter is distributed across the mixing states in the model. The results demonstrate the importance of representing organic aerosol as a semi-volatile aerosol, and explicitly calculating the partitioning of organic species between the gas and particulate phases.

volatility-basis set↗
NASA NTRS2004

Adaptive, Distributed Control of Constrained Multi-Agent Systems

Product Distribution (PO) theory was recently developed as a broad framework for analyzing and optimizing distributed systems. Here we demonstrate its use for adaptive distributed control of Multi-Agent Systems (MASS), i.e., for distributed stochastic optimization using MAS s. First we review one motivation of PD theory, as the information-theoretic extension of conventional full-rationality game theory to the case of bounded rational agents. In this extension the equilibrium of the game is the optimizer of a Lagrangian of the (Probability dist&&on on the joint state of the agents. When the game in question is a team game with constraints, that equilibrium optimizes the expected value of the team game utility, subject to those constraints. One common way to find that equilibrium is to have each agent run a Reinforcement Learning (E) algorithm. PD theory reveals this to be a particular type of search algorithm for minimizing the Lagrangian. Typically that algorithm i s quite inefficient. A more principled alternative is to use a variant of Newton's method to minimize the Lagrangian. Here we compare this alternative to RL-based search in three sets of computer experiments. These are the N Queen s problem and bin-packing problem from the optimization literature, and the Bar problem from the distributed RL literature. Our results confirm that the PD-theory-based approach outperforms the RL-based scheme in all three domains.

Bieniawski, Stefan↗
NASA NTRS1992

IRAF in the nineties

The Interactive Data Reduction and Analysis Facility (IRAF) data reduction and analysis system has been around since 1981. Today it is a mature system with hundreds of applications, and is supported on all the major platforms. Many institutions, projects, and individuals around the US and around the world have developed software for IRAF. Some of these packages are comparable in size to the IRAF core system itself. IRAF is both a data analysis system, and a programming environment. As a data analysis system it can be easily installed by a user at a remote site and immediately used to view and process data. As a programming environment IRAF contains a wealth of high and low level facilities for developing new applications for interactive and automated processing of astronomical or other data. As important as the applications programs and user interfaces are to the scientist using IRAF, the heart of the IRAF system is the programming environment. The programming environment determines to a large extent the types of applications which can be built within IRAF, what they will look like, and how they will interact with one another and with the user. While applications can be easily added to or removed from a software system, the programming environment must remain fairly stable, with carefully planned evolution and growth, over the lifetime of a system. The IRAF programming environment is the framework on which the rest of the IRAF system is built. The IRAF programming environment as it exists in 1992, and the work currently underway to enhance the environment are discussed. The structure of the programming environment as a class hierarchy is discussed, with emphasis on the work being done on the image data structures, graphics and image display interfaces, and user interfaces. The new technologies which we feel IRAF must deal with successfully over the coming years are discussed. Finally, a preview of what IRAF might look like to the user by the end of the decade is presented.

Tody, D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

pFlogger: The Parallel Fortran Logging Utility

In the context of high performance computing (HPC), software investments in support of text-based diagnostics, which monitor a running application, are typically limited compared to those for other types of IO. Examples of such diagnostics include reiteration of configuration parameters, progress indicators, simple metrics (e.g., mass conservation, convergence of solvers, etc.), and timers. To some degree, this difference in priority is justifiable as other forms of output are the primary products of a scientific model and, due to their large data volume, much more likely to be a significant performance concern. In contrast, text-based diagnostic content is generally not shared beyond the individual or group running an application and is most often used to troubleshoot when something goes wrong. We suggest that a more systematic approach enabled by a logging facility (or 'logger)' similar to those routinely used by many communities would provide significant value to complex scientific applications. In the context of high-performance computing, an appropriate logger would provide specialized support for distributed and shared-memory parallelism and have low performance overhead. In this paper, we present our prototype implementation of pFlogger - a parallel Fortran-based logging framework, and assess its suitability for use in a complex scientific application.

Clune, Tom↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transonic Lift and Drag Predictions using Wall Modelled Large Eddy Simulations

Wall-modelled Large Eddy Simulations (WMLES) of the NASA Common Research Model (CRM) at transonic conditions and various angles of attacks leading up to and including shock-induced flow separation are performed using the LAVA computational framework. The simulations are shown to accurately predict the lift curve slope and the onset of separation characterized by the break in the pitching moment. Furthermore, careful assessment of skin-friction drag at cruise condition and its subsequent decrease with increasing angles of attack are shown to be in agreement with viscous sublayer resolving Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes(RANS) simulations. The small differences between WMLES and RANS appear to be of the same order as differences seen between two RANS models at the cruise-point. Some sensitivity is observed to the coefficient used in the subgrid scale model, although this can be reconciled by noting the low chord- and shock-incidence Reynolds numbers (Rex≈106) seen in the outboard regions of the wing, along with the uncertainties associated with tripping and the numerical transition that occurs near the leading edge. Among the primary drawbacks seen in the WMLES predictions is the subdued increase in wave-drag with increasing angle-of-attack and the shock intensity when compared with experimental data. Preliminary assessment suggests that additional span- and stream-wise grid resolution is likely needed in mid- and out-board portions of the wing to better resolve the shock-induced separated flow and to further investigate prediction accuracy of unsteady temporal characteristics of the problem.

ARMD↗
NASA NTRS2017

Quantitative EPMA Compositional Mapping of NWA 2995: Characterization, and Petrologic Interpretation of Mafic Clasts

We present the first fully quantitative compositional maps of lunar meteorite NWA 2995 using electron microprobe stage mapping, and compare selected clast mineralogy and chemistry. NWA 2995 is a feldspathic fragmental breccia containing numerous highland fine grained lithologies, including anorthosite, norite, olivine basalt, subophitic basalt, gabbro, KREEP-like basalt, granulitic and glassy impact melts, coarse-grained mineral fragments, Fe-Ni metal, and glassy matrix [1]. Chips of NWA 2995, representing these diverse materials, were analyzed by INAA and fused-bead electron-probe microanalysis (EPMA); comparison of analytical data suggests grouping of lunar meteorites NWA 2995, 2996, 3190, 4503, 5151, and 5152. The mean composition of NWA 2995 corresponds to a 2:1 mixture of feldspathic and mare material, with approximately 5% KREEP component [2]. Clast mineral chemistry and petrologic interpretation of paired stone NWA 2996 has been reported by Mercer et al. [3], and Gross et al. [4]. This study combines advances in quantitative EPMA compositional mapping and data analysis, as applied to selected mafic clasts in a polished section of NWA 2995, to investigate the origin of mafic lithic components and to demonstrate a procedural framework for petrologic analysis.

Carpenter, P. K.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Analysis of Microcrafters in Materials Specimens after Long-Term Exposure on ISS Surface

The "Komplast" experiment has been carried out on the ISS by the Khrunichev Space Center jointly with other Russian scientific centers since 1998. The experiment incorporates the "Komplast" cartridges on the FGB exterior, which are fitted with materials specimens and sensors. The cartridges were sent into orbit together with FGB on 20 November 1998. In March 2011, two of the cartridges were taken back from the ISS by the "Discovery" American space shuttle after being exposed in the open space for 12 years. In the framework of this experiment the subject of analysis is the effect of the space environment on the exposed specimens of various materials. This report covers the analysis results of the surface morphology of various materials taken from the "Komplast" cartridges exposed to hits of micrometeors and micronic particles of space debris. Analysis is made of microcraters of 5 to 250 mcm in specimens of polished metals and silicone comprised in the sensor for micrometeoric particles. The report represents optic and scanning electron microscope images of craters formed in the specimens by high-velocity and low-velocity particles impacting the surface. By virtue of the electronic microscope, data on composition of the substance in the craters and of the substance of the low-velocity particles are obtained. The data make it possible to differentiate the particles as the natural-origin particles or anthropogenic-origin space debris particles. Distribution of craters and low-velocity particles in the size range of 5 to 50 mcm is obtained. The data are compared with the existing models of fluxes of natural-origin and artificial-origin microparticles on the ISS orbit. Inhomogeneous particles of complicated configuration are discovered on the surface of the analyzed specimens, whose origin are not uniquely determined and are to be the subject of further study.

Shaevich, S. K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CHP-PRA: Sensorimotor Countermeasures Proof of Concept

The capabilities included in Crew Health and Performance (CHP) systems are designed to keep the crew healthy, happy, and productive. In doing so, the CHP system allows reductions in human related risks to be realized. All human missions, though particularly future Artemis and Mars missions, have constraints on the mass and volume allocated to the CHP system. Thus, trades must be made on how to best buy down risk while still meeting other requirements. Understanding how different CHP capabilities influence medical, performance, and long-term health risks is key to making informed choices among these trades. To address this, an integrated CHP Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) model is being developed. Much like how IMPACT is designed to allow medical resource trades informed by medical risks, CHP PRA will enable analogous trades in human system risks across all CHP functions and capabilities. There are 29 Human System Risk Board (HSRB) risk areas to consider for model implementation. This effort focused solely on the implementation of countermeasures associated with sensorimotor risk. The framework and lessons learned from this proof of concept will benefit the implementation of other risks and countermeasures. Astronauts experience sensorimotor changes when entering or exiting a microgravity environment. While most sensorimotor issues are resolved within a few days, they pose a serious risk to crew health and performance during the adaptation period. This adaptation period aligns with gravity transitions and key mission phases where the crew members may be required to complete challenging tasks ideally with an undisturbed sensorimotor system. Countermeasures such as training or pharmaceuticals can be used to mitigate risk. This effort began by identifying physiological changes to the sensorimotor system that could lead to functional performance decrements or medical conditions and potential countermeasures, so that the overall effect of sensorimotor disturbance on human risk could be captured. We then selected example countermeasures, mapped relationships between countermeasures and outcomes, and used results from existing sensorimotor investigations to define the relationship between a sensorimotor countermeasure and subsequent performance of a sensorimotor-affected task. Specifically, using shuttle landing performance data, we compared the use or absence of inflight training capabilities to yield a relative performance change that can be applied to the prediction of the risk associated with manual control performance in future missions, as depicted in the figure. This sensorimotor proof of concept demonstrates how HRP research information can be transformed into quantifiable relationships to describe changes in HSRB medical and performance risks.

Caroline R Austin↗
NASA NTRS2021

IQ Collaboratory. II. The Quiescent Fraction of Isolated, Low-mass Galaxies across Simulations and Observations

We compare three major large-scale hydrodynamical galaxy simulations (EAGLE, Illustris-TNG, and SIMBA) by forward modeling simulated galaxies into observational space and computing the fraction of isolated and quiescent low-mass galaxies as a function of stellar mass. Using SDSS as our observational template, we create mock surveys and synthetic spectroscopic and photometric observations of each simulation, adding realistic noise and observational limits. All three simulations show a decrease in the number of quiescent, isolated galaxies in the mass range M * = 10 9−10 M ꙩ , in broad agreement with observations. However, even after accounting for observational and selection biases, none of the simulations reproduce the observed absence of quiescent field galaxies below M * = 10 9 M ꙩ . We find that the low-mass quiescent populations selected via synthetic observations have consistent quenching timescales, despite an apparent variation in the late-time star formation histories. The effect of increased numerical resolution is not uniform across simulations and cannot fully mitigate the differences between the simulations and the observations. The framework presented here demonstrates a path toward more robust and accurate comparisons between theoretical simulations and galaxy survey observations, while the quenching threshold serves as a sensitive probe of feedback implementations.

Claire M. Dickey↗
NASA NTRS1995

Multiobjective optimization of hybrid regenerative life support technologies. Topic D: Technology Assessment

We developed simple mathematical models for many of the technologies constituting the water reclamation system in a space station. These models were employed for subsystem optimization and for the evaluation of the performance of individual water reclamation technologies, by quantifying their operational 'cost' as a linear function of weight, volume, and power consumption. Then we performed preliminary investigations on the performance improvements attainable by simple hybrid systems involving parallel combinations of technologies. We are developing a software tool for synthesizing a hybrid water recovery system (WRS) for long term space missions. As conceptual framework, we are employing the state space approach. Given a number of available technologies and the mission specifications, the state space approach would help design flowsheets featuring optimal process configurations, including those that feature stream connections in parallel, series, or recycles. We visualize this software tool to function as follows: given the mission duration, the crew size, water quality specifications, and the cost coefficients, the software will synthesize a water recovery system for the space station. It should require minimal user intervention. The following tasks need to be solved for achieving this goal: (1) formulate a problem statement that will be used to evaluate the advantages of a hybrid WRS over a single technology WBS; (2) model several WRS technologies that can be employed in the space station; (3) propose a recycling network design methodology (since the WRS synthesis task is a recycling network design problem, it is essential to employ a systematic method in synthesizing this network); (4) develop a software implementation for this design methodology, design a hybrid system using this software, and compare the resulting WRS with a base-case WRS; and (5) create a user-friendly interface for this software tool.

Manousiouthakis, Vasilios↗
NASA NTRS1999

Crack Growth Prediction Methodology for Multi-Site Damage: Layered Analysis and Growth During Plasticity

A finite element program has been developed to perform quasi-static, elastic-plastic crack growth simulations. The model provides a general framework for mixed-mode I/II elastic-plastic fracture analysis using small strain assumptions and plane stress, plane strain, and axisymmetric finite elements. Cracks are modeled explicitly in the mesh. As the cracks propagate, automatic remeshing algorithms delete the mesh local to the crack tip, extend the crack, and build a new mesh around the new tip. State variable mapping algorithms transfer stresses and displacements from the old mesh to the new mesh. The von Mises material model is implemented in the context of a non-linear Newton solution scheme. The fracture criterion is the critical crack tip opening displacement, and crack direction is predicted by the maximum tensile stress criterion at the crack tip. The implementation can accommodate multiple curving and interacting cracks. An additional fracture algorithm based on nodal release can be used to simulate fracture along a horizontal plane of symmetry. A core of plane strain elements can be used with the nodal release algorithm to simulate the triaxial state of stress near the crack tip. Verification and validation studies compare analysis results with experimental data and published three-dimensional analysis results. Fracture predictions using nodal release for compact tension, middle-crack tension, and multi-site damage test specimens produced accurate results for residual strength and link-up loads. Curving crack predictions using remeshing/mapping were compared with experimental data for an Arcan mixed-mode specimen. Loading angles from 0 degrees to 90 degrees were analyzed. The maximum tensile stress criterion was able to predict the crack direction and path for all loading angles in which the material failed in tension. Residual strength was also accurately predicted for these cases.

James, Mark Anthony↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Diagnosis-Prognosis Feedback Loop for Improved Performance Under Uncertainties

The feed-forward relationship between diagnosis and prognosis is the foundation of both aircraft structural health management and the digital twin concept. Measurements of structural response are obtained either in-situ with mounted sensor networks or offline using more traditional techniques (e.g., nondestructive evaluation). Diagnosis algorithms process this information to detect and quantify damage and then feed this data forward to a prognostic framework. A prognosis of the structure's future operational readiness (e.g., remaining useful life or residual strength) is then made and is used to inform mission- critical decision-making. Years of research have been devoted to improving the elements of this process, but the process itself has not changed significantly. Here, a new approach is proposed in which prognosis information is not only fed forward for decision-making, but it is also fed back to the forthcoming diagnosis. In this way, diagnosis algorithms can take advantage of a priori information about the expected state of health, rather than operating in an uninformed condition. As a feasibility test, a diagnosis-prognosis feedback loop of this manner is demonstrated. The approach is applied to a numerical example in which fatigue crack growth is simulated in a simple aluminum alloy test specimen. A prognosis was derived from a set of diagnoses which provided feedback to a subsequent set of diagnoses. Improvements in accuracy and a reduction in uncertainty in the prognosis- informed diagnoses were observed when compared with an uninformed diagnostic approach.

Leser, Patrick E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Extension of the Time-Spectral Method to Overset Solvers

Relative motion in the Cartesian or overset framework causes certain spatial nodes to move in and out of the physical domain as they are dynamically blanked by moving solid bodies. This poses a problem for the conventional Time-Spectral approach, which expands the solution at every spatial node into a Fourier series spanning the period of motion. The proposed extension to the Time-Spectral method treats unblanked nodes in the conventional manner but expands the solution at dynamically blanked nodes in a basis of barycentric rational polynomials spanning partitions of contiguously defined temporal intervals. Rational polynomials avoid Runge's phenomenon on the equidistant time samples of these sub-periodic intervals. Fourier- and rational polynomial-based differentiation operators are used in tandem to provide a consistent hybrid Time-Spectral overset scheme capable of handling relative motion. The hybrid scheme is tested with a linear model problem and implemented within NASA's OVERFLOW Reynolds-averaged Navier- Stokes (RANS) solver. The hybrid Time-Spectral solver is then applied to inviscid and turbulent RANS cases of plunging and pitching airfoils and compared to time-accurate and experimental data. A limiter was applied in the turbulent case to avoid undershoots in the undamped turbulent eddy viscosity while maintaining accuracy. The hybrid scheme matches the performance of the conventional Time-Spectral method and converges to the time-accurate results with increased temporal resolution.

Leffell, Joshua Isaac↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Quantification of a Rotorcraft Conceptual Sizing Toolsuite

A computational framework to support the quantification of system uncertainties and sensitivities for rotorcraft applications is presented using the NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) conceptual sizing tool. A 90 passenger conceptual tiltrotor configuration was used for case demonstration in the modeling of uncertainties in NDARCs emission module. A non-intrusive forward propagation uncertainty quantification approach was applied to ensemble simulations using a Monte Carlo methodology with stratified Latin hypercube sampling. An off-the-shelf software, DAKOTA, which supports trade studies and design space exploration, including optimization, surrogate modeling and uncertainty analysis was used to address the research goals. A toolsuite was further developed incorporating DAKOTA with automated design processes and methods using function wrappers to execute program routines including support for data post-processing. Uncertainties in rotorcraft emissions modeling using the Average Temperature Response metric for a set mission profile were studied. It was shown that for the current study, using the base-line best estimate modeling parameters for the Average Temperature Response metric, NDARC under-estimates the effects of emissions when compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. A global sensitivity analysis was further undertaken to quantify the contribution of the various emission species on output sensitivity, hence uncertainty. The work demonstrates that the developed toolsuite is robust and will support the quantification of system uncertainties and sensitivities in future rotorcraft design efforts.

Rotorcraft↗
NASA NTRS2018

Remaining Flying Time Prediction Implementing Battery Prognostics Framework for Electric UAV's

In this paper the problem of building trust in the online safety prediction of an fixed wing small electric unmanned aerial vehicles (e-UAV) for remaining flying time is addressed. A series of flight tests are described to verify the performance of the remaining flying time prediction algorithm. The estimate of remaining flying time is used to activate an alarm when the predicted remaining time falls below a threshold of two minutes. This updates the pilot to transition to the landing sequence of the flight profile. A second alarm is activated when the battery state of charge (SOC) falls below a specified safety limit threshold. This SOC threshold is the point at which the battery energy reserve would no longer safely support enough aborted landing attempts. During the test flights, the motor system is operated with the same predefined timed airspeed profile for each test. To test the robustness of the developed prediction algorithm, partial tests were performed with and remaining were performed without a simulated power train fault. To simulate a partial power train fault in the e-UAV the pilot engages a resistor bank at a specified time during the test flight. The flying time prediction system is agnostic of the pilot's activation of the fault and must adapt to the vehicle's state. The time at which the limit threshold on battery SOC is reached, it is then used to measure the accuracy of the remaining flying time predictions. This is demonstrated through comparing results from two battery models being developed. Accuracy requirements for the alarms are considered and the results discussed.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Quantitative Study of Oxygen as a Metabolic Regulator

An acute reduction in oxygen (O2) delivery to a tissue is generally associated with a decrease in phosphocreatine, increases in ADP, NADH/NAD, and inorganic phosphate, increased rates of glycolysis and lactate production, and reduced rates of pyruvate and fatty acid oxidation. However, given the complexity of the human bioenergetic system and its components, it is difficult to determine quantitatively how cellular metabolic processes interact to maintain ATP homeostasis during stress (e.g., hypoxia, ischemia, and exercise). Of special interest is the determination of mechanisms relating tissue oxygenation to observed metabolic responses at the tissue, organ, and whole body levels and the quantification of how changes in tissue O2 availability affect the pathways of ATP synthesis and the metabolites that control these pathways. In this study, we extend a previously developed mathematical model of human bioenergetics to provide a physicochemical framework that permits quantitative understanding of O2 as a metabolic regulator. Specifically, the enhancement permits studying the effects of variations in tissue oxygenation and in parameters controlling the rate of cellular respiration on glycolysis, lactate production, and pyruvate oxidation. The whole body is described as a bioenergetic system consisting of metabolically distinct tissue/organ subsystems that exchange materials with the blood. In order to study the dynamic response of each subsystem to stimuli, we solve the ordinary differential equations describing the temporal evolution of metabolite levels, given the initial concentrations. The solver used in the present study is the packaged code LSODE, as implemented in the NASA Lewis kinetics and sensitivity analysis code, LSENS. A major advantage of LSENS is the efficient procedures supporting systematic sensitivity analysis, which provides the basic methods for studying parameter sensitivities (i.e., changes in model behavior due to parameter variation). Sensitivity analysis establishes relationships between model predictions and problem parameters (i.e., initial concentrations, rate coefficients, etc). It helps determine the effects of uncertainties or changes in these input parameters on the predictions, which ultimately are compared with experimental observations in order to validate the model. Sensitivity analysis can identify parameters that must be determined accurately because of their large effect on the model predictions and parameters that need not be known with great precision because they have little or no effect on the solution. This capability may prove to be important in optimizing the design of experiments, thereby reducing the use of animals. This approach can be applied to study the metabolic effects of reduced oxygen delivery to cardiac muscle due to local myocardial ischemia and the effects of acute hypoxia on brain metabolism. Other important applications of sensitivity analysis include identification of quantitatively relevant pathways and biochemical species within an overall mechanism, when examining the effects of a genetic anomaly or pathological state on energetic system components and whole system behavior.

Radhakrishnan, Krishnan↗
NASA NTRS2017

Assimilation of AERONET and MODIS AOT Observations Using Variational and Ensemble Data Assimilation Methods and Its Impact on Aerosol Forecasting Skill

Data assimilation of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) for aerosol forecasting was tested within the Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (NAAPS) framework, using variational and ensemble data assimilation methods. Navy aerosol forecasting currently makes use of a deterministic NAAPS simulation coupled to Navy Variational Data Assimilation System for aerosol optical depth, a two-dimensional variational data assimilation system, for MODIS AOT assimilation. An ensemble version of NAAPS (ENAAPS) coupled to an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed was recently developed, allowing for a range of data assimilation and forecasting experiments to be run with deterministic NAAPS and ENAAPS. The main findings are that the EAKF, with its flow-dependent error covariances, makes better use of sparse observations such as AERONET AOT. Assimilating individual AERONET observations in the two-dimensional variational system can increase the analysis errors when observations are located in high AOT gradient regions. By including AERONET with MODIS AOT assimilation, the magnitudes of peak aerosol events (AOT> 1) were better captured with improved temporal variability, especially in India and Asia where aerosol prediction is a challenge. Assimilating AERONET AOT with MODIS had little impact on the 24 h forecast skill compared to MODIS assimilation only, but differences were found downwind of AERONET sites. The 24 h forecast skill was approximately the same for forecasts initialized with analyses from AERONET AOT assimilation alone compared to MODIS assimilation, particularly in regions where the AERONET network is dense; including the United States and Europe, indicating that AERONET could serve as a backup observation network for over-land synoptic-scale aerosol events.

Rubin, Juli I.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Improving Reanalyses Using TRMM and SSM/I-Derived Precipitation and Total Precipitable Water Observations

Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve these fields in reanalyses. The DAO has developed a "1+1"D procedure to assimilate 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS. The "1+1" designation refers to one spatial dimension plus one temporal dimension. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the satellite-retrieved rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. The control variables are analysis increments of moisture within the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) framework of the GEOS DAS. This 1+1D scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but differs in its choice of the control variable. Instead of estimating the initial condition at the beginning of the assimilation cycle, it estimates the constant IAU forcing applied over a 6-hr assimilation cycle. In doing so, it imposes the forecast model as a weak constraint in a manner similar to the variational continuous assimilation techniques. We present results from an experiment in which the observed rain rate and TPW are assumed to be "perfect". They show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I-derived surface precipitation and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters directly linked to convective activities such as clouds, the outgoing longwave radiation, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data types reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also leads to a better short-range forecast, but the impact is modest compared with improvements in the time-averaged fields. These results suggest that, in the presence of biases and other errors of the forecast model, it is possible to improve the time-averaged "climate content" in the assimilated data without comparable improvements in the short-range forecast skill. Results of this experiment provide a useful benchmark for evaluating error covariance models for optimal use of these data types.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗