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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 829 records · Page 46
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NASA NTRS2014

ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model

Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

simulation↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the mid-latitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

Heat events↗
NASA NTRS2020

Soil Evaporation Stress Determines Soil Moisture‐Evapotranspiration Coupling Strength in Land Surface Modeling

Model‐based estimates of soil moisture (SM)‐evapotranspiration (ET) coupling strength(ρ) vary widely and are prone to bias. Here we apply numerical modeling and remote sensing to identify the process‐level source of modeledρbias with the goal of improving the fidelity of current Earth system models. Results illustrate that modeledρis most strongly determined by soil evaporation (E) stress, and (generally positive)ρmodeling bias is attributable to the oversimplification of soil texture impacts on E stress. Based on new remotely sensed estimates ofρ, we demonstrate that removingρbias via a single optimized E stress parameter leads to improved ET accuracy and resolves a well‐known modeling bias in the partitioning of ET into E and T. As such, we highlight the importance of the stress function relating E and SM and its central role in regulating land‐atmosphere coupling processes impacting local climate.

Jianzhi Dong↗
NASA NTRS1983

Marine biological controls on atmospheric CO2 and climate

It is argued that the ocean is losing N gas faster than N is being returned to the ocean, and that replenishment of the N supply in the ocean usually occurs during ice ages. Available N from river and estruarine transport and from rainfall after formation by lightning are shown to be at a rate too low to compensate for the 10,000 yr oceanic lifetime of N. Ice sheets advance and transfer moraine N to the ocean, lower the sea levels, erode the ocean beds, promote greater biological productivity, and reduce CO2. Ice core samples have indicated a variability in the atmospheric N content that could be attributed to the ice age scenario.

Mcelroy, M. B.↗
DOE OSTI2015

The role of remote sensing in process-scaling studies of managed forest ecosystems

Sustaining forest resources requires a better understanding of forest ecosystem processes, and how management decisions and climate change may affect these processes in the future. While plot and inventory data provide our most detailed information on forest carbon, energy, and water cycling, applying this understanding to broader spatial and temporal domains requires scaling approaches. Remote sensing provides a powerful resource for "upscaling" process understanding to regional and continental domains. The increased range of available remote sensing modalities, including interferometric radar, lidar, and hyperspectral imagery, allows the retrieval of a broad range of forest attributes. This paper reviews the application of remote sensing for upscaling forest attributes from the plot scale to regional domains, with particular emphasis on how remote sensing products can support parameterization and validation of ecosystem process models. We focus on four key ecological attributes of forests: composition, structure, productivity and evapotranspiration, and disturbance dynamics. For each attribute, we discuss relevant remote sensing technologies, provide examples of their application, and critically evaluate both strengths and challenges associated with their use. Published by Elsevier B.V.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Sensitivities of Simulated Satellite Views of Clouds to Subgrid-Scale Overlap and Condensate Heterogeneity

Satellite simulators are often used to account for limitations in satellite retrievals of cloud properties in comparisons between models and satellite observations. The purpose of this framework is to enable more robust evaluation of model cloud properties, so that differences between models and observations can more confidently be attributed to model errors. A critical step in this process is accounting for the difference between the spatial scales at which cloud properties are retrieved with those at which clouds are simulated in global models. In this study, we create a series of sensitivity tests using 4-km global model output from the multiscale modeling framework to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated satellite retrievals to common assumptions about cloud and precipitation overlap and condensate variability used in climate models whose grid spacing is many tens to hundreds of kilometers. We find the simulated retrievals are sensitive to these assumptions. Using maximum-random overlap with homogeneous cloud and precipitation condensate leads to errors in Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project-simulated cloud cover and in CloudSat-simulated radar reflectivity that are significant compared to typical differences between the model simulations and observations. A more realistic treatment of unresolved clouds and precipitation is shown to substantially reduce these errors. The sensitivity to these assumptions underscores the need for the adoption of more realistic subcolumn treatments in models and the need for consistency among subcolumn assumptions between models and simulators to ensure that simulator-diagnosed errors are consistent with the model formulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolving winter atmospheric teleconnection patterns and their potential triggers across western North America

Abstract We present a comprehensive analysis diagnosing the primary factors driving the observed changes in major atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere winter, including the Pacific North American pattern (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American winter dipole (NAWD), with particular focus on their roles in shaping anomalous weather across North America. Our investigation reveals a consistent influence of the NAWD over seven decades, contrasting with fluctuating impacts from PNA and minor impacts from NAO. In particular, an emergent negative correlation between the NAWD and PNA, signaling a shifted phase of teleconnection patterns, is identified. Such a relationship change is traced to enhanced upper-level ridges across western North America, reflecting a reinforced winter stationary wave. Through attribution analysis, we identify greenhouse gas emissions as a probable driver for the northward drift of the Asia-Pacific jet core, which, aided by orographic lifting over the Alaskan Range, subsequently amplifies the winter stationary wave across western North America. This work emphasizes the pronounced effect of human-induced global warming on the structure and teleconnection of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter, providing vital perspectives on the dynamics of current climate trends.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2018

Cloud droplet activation of secondary organic aerosol is mainly controlled by molecular weight, not water solubility

Aerosol particles strongly influence global climate by modifying the properties of clouds. An accurate assessment of the aerosol impact on climate requires knowledge of the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), a subset of aerosol particles that can activate and form cloud droplets in the atmosphere. Atmospheric particles typically consist of a myriad of organic species, which frequently dominate the particle composition. As a result, CCN concentration is often a strong function of the hygroscopicity of organics in the particles. Earlier studies showed organic hygroscopicity increases nearly linearly with oxidation level. Such increase of hygroscopicity is conventionally attributed to higher water solubility for more oxidized organics. By systematically varying the water content of activating droplets, we show that for the majority of secondary organic aerosols (SOA), essentially all organics are dissolved at the point of droplet activation. Therefore, the organic hygroscopicity is not limited by solubility, but is dictated mainly by the molecular weight of organic species. Instead of increased water solubility as previously thought, the increase of the organic hygroscopicity with oxidation level is largely because (1) SOA formed from smaller precursor molecules tend to be more oxidized and have lower average molecular weight and (2) during oxidation, fragmentation reactions reduce average organic molecule weight, leading to increased hygroscopicity. A simple model of organic hygroscopicity based on molecular weight, oxidation level, and volatility is developed, and it successfully reproduces the variation of SOA hygroscopicity with oxidation level observed in the laboratory and field studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Evaluation of water vapor distribution in general circulation models using satellite observations

This paper presents a comparison of the water vapor distribution obtained from two general circulation models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM), with satellite observations of total precipitable water (TPW) from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) from GOES. Overall, both models are successful in capturing the primary features of the observed water vapor distribution and its seasonal variation. For the ECMWF model, however, a systematic moist bias in TPW is noted over well-known stratocumulus regions in the eastern subtropical oceans. Comparison with radiosonde profiles suggests that this problem is attributable to difficulties in modeling the shallowness of the boundary layer and large vertical water vapor gradients which characterize these regions. In comparison, the CCM is more successful in capturing the low values of TPW in the stratocumulus regions, although it tends to exhibit a dry bias over the eastern half of the subtropical oceans and a corresponding moist bias in the western half. The CCM also significantly overestimates the daily variability of the moisture fields in convective regions, suggesting a problem in simulating the temporal nature of moisture transport by deep convection. Comparison of the monthly mean UTH distribution indicates generally larger discrepancies than were noted for TPW owing to the greater influence of large-scale dynamical processes in determining the distribution of UTH. In particular, the ECMWF model exhibits a distinct dry bias along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a moist bias over the subtropical descending branches of the Hadley cell, suggesting an underprediction in the strength of the Hadley circulation. The CCM, on the other hand, demonstrates greater discrepancies in UTH than are observed for the ECMWF model, but none that are as clearly correlated with well-known features of the large-scale circulation.

Soden, Brian J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Internally Consistent MODIS Estimate of Aerosol Clear-Sky Radiative Effect Over the Global Oceans

Modern satellite remote sensing, and in particular the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), offers a measurement-based pathway to estimate global aerosol radiative effects and aerosol radiative forcing. Over the Oceans, MODIS retrieves the total aerosol optical thickness, but also reports which combination of the 9 different aerosol models was used to obtain the retrieval. Each of the 9 models is characterized by a size distribution and complex refractive index, which through Mie calculations correspond to a unique set of single scattering albedo, assymetry parameter and spectral extinction for each model. The combination of these sets of optical parameters weighted by the optical thickness attributed to each model in the retrieval produces the best fit to the observed radiances at the top of the atmosphere. Thus the MODIS Ocean aerosol retrieval provides us with (1) An observed distribution of global aerosol loading, and (2) An internally-consistent, observed, distribution of aerosol optical models that when used in combination will best represent the radiances at the top of the atmosphere. We use these two observed global distributions to initialize the column climate model by Chou and Suarez to calculate the aerosol radiative effect at top of the atmosphere and the radiative efficiency of the aerosols over the global oceans. We apply the analysis to 3 years of MODIS retrievals from the Terra satellite and produce global and regional, seasonally varying, estimates of aerosol radiative effect over the clear-sky oceans.

Remer, Lorraine A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Experimental Evidence for Weathering and Martian Sulfate Formation Under Extremely Cold Weather-Limited Environments

High resolution photography and spectroscopy of the martian surface (MOC, HiRISE) from orbit has revolutionized our view of Mars with one of the most important discoveries being wide-spread layered sedimentary deposits associated with sulfate minerals across the low to mid latitude regions of Mars [1, 2]. The mechanism for sulfate formation on Mars has been frequently attributed to playa-like evaporative environments under prolonged warm conditions [3]. However, there are several problems with the presence of prolonged surface temperatures on Mars above 273 K during the Noachian including the faint young Sun [4] and the presence of suitable greenhouse gases [5]. The geomorphic evidence for early warm conditions may instead be explained by periodic episodes of warming rather than long term prolonged warm temperatures [6]. An alternate view of the ancient martian climate contends that prolonged warm temperatures were never present and that the atmosphere and climate has been similar to modern conditions throughout most of its history [6]. This view is more consistent with the climate models, but has had a difficult time explaining the sedimentary history of Mars and in particular the presence of sulfate minerals. We suggest here that mixtures of atmospheric aerosols, ice, and dust have the potential for creating small films of cryo-concentrated acidic solutions that may represent an important unexamined environment for understanding weathering processes on Mars [7, 8]. This study seeks to test whether sulfate formation may be possible at temperatures well below 0 C in water limited environments removing the need for prolonged warm periods to form sulfates on early Mars.

Niles, Paul B.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Quantifying the Causes of Differences in Tropospheric OH Within Global Models

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary daytime oxidant in the troposphere and provides the main loss mechanism for many pollutants and greenhouse gases, including methane (CH4). Global mean tropospheric OH differs by as much as 80% among various global models, for reasons that are not well understood. We use neural networks (NNs), trained using archived output from eight chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in the Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport Model Intercomparison Project (POLMIP), to quantify the factors responsible for differences in tropospheric OH and resulting CH4 lifetime (Tau CH4) between these models. Annual average Tau CH4, for loss by OH only, ranges from 8.0 to 11.6 years for the eight POLMIP CTMs. The factors driving these differences were quantified by inputting 3-D chemical fields from one CTM into the trained NN of another CTM. Across all CTMs, the largest mean differences in Tau CH4 (Delta Tau CH4) result from variations in chemical mechanisms (Delta Tau CH4 = 0.46 years), the photolysis frequency (J) of O3 yields O(D-1) (0.31 years), local O3 (0.30 years), and CO (0.23 years). The Delta Tau CH4 due to CTM differences in NO(x) (NO + NO2) is relatively low (0.17 years), although large regional variation in OH between the CTMs is attributed to NO(x). Differences in isoprene and J(NO2) have negligible overall effect on globally averaged tropospheric OH, although the extent of OH variations due to each factor depends on the model being examined. This study demonstrates that NNs can serve as a useful tool for quantifying why tropospheric OH varies between global models, provided that essential chemical fields are archived.

Surface Measurements and Models↗
DOE OSTI2015

How does increasing horizontal resolution in a global climate model improve the simulation of aerosol-cloud interactions?

The Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 is run at horizontal grid spacing of 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.25 degrees, with the meteorology nudged towards the Year Of Tropical Convection analysis, and cloud simulators and the collocated A-Train satellite observations are used to explore the resolution dependence of aerosol-cloud interactions. The higher-resolution model produces results that agree better with observations, showing an increase of susceptibility of cloud droplet size, indicating a stronger first aerosol indirect forcing (AIF), and a decrease of susceptibility of precipitation probability, suggesting a weaker second AIF. The resolution sensitivities of AIF are attributed to those of droplet nucleation and precipitation parameterizations. The annual average AIF in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes (where most anthropogenic emissions occur) in the 0.25° model is reduced by about 1 W m⁻² (-30%) compared to the 2° model, leading to a 0.26 W m⁻² reduction (-15%) in the global annual average AIF.

Ma, Po -Lun↗
DOE OSTI2018

Rainfall erosivity in Slovenia: Sensitivity estimation and trend detection

Highlights: • Rainfall erosivity for 10 rainfall stations located in Slovenia was evaluated. • Rainfall erosivity trends are mostly positive while mostly statistically insignificant. • The maximum rainfall erosivity is obtained under Alpine climate. • Monthly rainfall erosivity was computed. • Sensitivity analyses were carried out. Slovenia is one of the EU countries with the largest values and largest amounts of variability in rainfall erosivity, with maximum annual values exceeding 10,000 MJ mm ha{sup -1} h{sup -1} yr{sup -1}. Five-minute rainfall data was analysed from 10 Slovenian rainfall stations with data-length availability longer than 25 years with a maximum data length of 69 years and a total data-station length equal to 443 years. Trends in the rainfall erosivity R-factor were detected for four different sub-samples using monthly, half-year, and annual rainfall erosivity values. The results indicate that rainfall erosivity trends for the selected Slovenian stations are mostly statistically insignificant, with the selected significance level of 0.05. However, a larger share of identified trends are positive than negative. The maximum annual rainfall erosivity values were obtained for one specific mountain station. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis regarding the rainfall erosivity factor R calculation showed that the rainfall threshold parameter (12.7 mm) that is used to remove the small-magnitude rainfall events in order to reduce the computational burden can attribute up to 10% of the average annual R-values in cases where this threshold is not used. Other parameters have, on average, a smaller impact on the calculated rainfall erosivity. Furthermore, the application of local kinetic energy equations resulted in, on average, about 20% higher annual rainfall erosivity values compared to the equation that is proposed by the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) manual and was not developed specifically for this region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Memory-based parameterization with differentiable solver: Application to Lorenz ’96

Physical parameterizations (or closures) are used as representations of unresolved subgrid processes within weather and global climate models or coarse-scale turbulent models, whose resolutions are too coarse to resolve small-scale processes. These parameterizations are typically grounded on physically based, yet empirical, representations of the underlying small-scale processes. Machine learning-based parameterizations have recently been proposed as an alternative solution and have shown great promise to reduce uncertainties associated with the parameterization of small-scale processes. Yet, those approaches still show some important mismatches that are often attributed to the stochasticity of the considered process. This stochasticity can be due to coarse temporal resolution, unresolved variables, or simply to the inherent chaotic nature of the process. To address these issues, we propose a new type of parameterization (closure), which is built using memory-based neural networks, to account for the non-instantaneous response of the closure and to enhance its stability and prediction accuracy. We apply the proposed memory-based parameterization, with differentiable solver, to the Lorenz ’96 model in the presence of a coarse temporal resolution and show its capacity to predict skillful forecasts over a long time horizon of the resolved variables compared to instantaneous parameterizations. This approach paves the way for the use of memory-based parameterizations for closure problems.

Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 2: Nutrients, Algal Blooms, Sediment, Pathogens

Abstract In this paper we review the published, scientific literature addressing the response of nutrients, sediment, pathogens, and cyanobacterial blooms to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk, to inform management responses, and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Results suggest that anticipated future changes present a risk of water quality and ecosystem degradation in many United States locations. Understanding responses is, however, complicated by inherent high spatial and temporal variability, interactions with land use and water management, and dependence on uncertain changes in hydrology in response to future climate. Effects on pollutant loading in different watershed settings generally correlate with projected changes in precipitation and runoff. In all regions, increased heavy precipitation events are likely to drive more episodic pollutant loading to water bodies. The risk of algal blooms could increase due to an expanded seasonal window of warm water temperatures and the potential for episodic increases in nutrient loading. Increased air and water temperatures are also likely to affect the survival of waterborne pathogens. Responding to these challenges requires understanding of vulnerabilities, and management strategies to reduce risk.

Coffey, Rory↗
DOE OSTI2018

Field evidences for the positive effects of aerosols on tree growth

Theoretical and eddy-covariance studies demonstrate that aerosol-loading stimulates canopy photosynthesis, but field evidence for the aerosol effect on tree growth is limited. For this study, we measured in-situ daily stem growth rates of aspen trees under a wide range of aerosol-loading in China. The results showed that daily stem growth rates were positively correlated with aerosol-loading, even at exceptionally high aerosol levels. Using structural equation modelling analysis, we showed that variations in stem growth rates can be largely attributed to two environmental variables co-varying with aerosol loading: diffuse fraction of radiation and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Furthermore, we found that these two factors influence stem growth by influencing photosynthesis from different parts of canopy. By using field observations and a mechanistic photosynthesis model, we demonstrate that photosynthetic rates of both sun and shade leaves increased under high aerosol-loading conditions but for different reasons. For sun leaves, the photosynthetic increase was primarily attributed to the concurrent lower VPD; for shade leaves, the positive aerosol effect was tightly connected with increased diffuse light. Overall, our study provides the first field-evidence of increased tree growth under high aerosol loading. We highlight the importance of understanding biophysical mechanisms of aerosol-meteorology interactions, and incorporating the different pathways of aerosol effects into earth system models to improve the prediction of large-scale aerosol impacts, and the associated vegetation-mediated climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗