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At least 829 records · Page 46

Evolving Management Strategies to Improve NASA Flagship's Cost and Schedule Performance: LUVOIR as a Case Study

The large ultraviolet optical infrared surveyor (LUVOIR) study process has brought to fruition an extremely exciting scientific mission concept. The 3.5 year LUVOIR study duration enabled an unprecedented level of scientific, engineering, and technology thoroughness prior to the Astro2020 Decadal. This detail also shed light on many technical and programmatic challenges for efficiently developing a mission of this scale within the context of NASA’s flagships cost and schedule performances to date. While NASA’s flagships perform exquisitely once on orbit, there is understandable growing frustration in their development cost and schedule overruns. We felt it incumbent upon ourselves to ask how we could improve on delivering LUVOIR (or any of NASA’s future flagships) on schedule and on budget, not just for the next mission, but for all NASA large strategic missions to come. We researched past and current NASA flagship’s lessons learned publications and other large government projects that pointed to some systemic challenges that will only grow with larger and more complex strategic missions. Our findings pointed us to some ways that could potentially evolve NASA’s current flagship management practices to help improve on their development cost and schedule performance despite their growing complexity. This paper briefly comments on the motivations for NASA’s flagships and on the science motivations for a LUVOIR-like mission. We argue the incentives for improving NASA’s flagships development cost and schedule performance. We review the specific additional challenges of NASA’s flagships to acknowledge their specific issues. We then examine the most repeated systemic challenges we found from previous NASA flagships and other large government projects lessons learned/observed. Lastly, we offer recommendations to tackle these repeated systemic challenges facing NASA’s flagships. The recommendations culminate into a proactive integrated development and funding framework to enable improving the execution of NASA’s future flagship’s cost and schedule performance.

Crooke, Julie A.↗

Ground System PRA Data Availability Case Study

Presentation to support a Summit/TIM with various Stakeholders (Ground and Flight) to perform a GAP analysis associated with ground and spacecraft maintenance, maintainability, and availability activities in order to identify missing Agency planning and guidance materials.

Physics of Failure↗

The Evolution of a Pitch-Angle "Bite-Out" Scattering Signature Caused by EMIC Wave Activity: A Case Study

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves are understood to be one of the dominant drivers of relativistic electron loss from Earth's radiation belts. Theory predicts that the associated gyroresonant wave‐particle interaction results in a distinct energy‐dependent “bite‐out” signature in the normalized flux distribution of electrons as they are scattered into the loss cone. We identify such signatures along with the responsible EMIC waves captured in situ by the Van Allen Probes on 15–16 February 2017. Using the cold plasma approximation, we predict the pitch‐angle cutoffs for the scattering signature for the captured EMIC wave and find it in good agreement with the observed electron bite‐out scattering signature. Employing the close conjunction between the Van Allen Probes and THEMIS during this time, we explore the temporal and spatial evolution of the scattering signature, as well as the surrounding wave activity, and find that the scattering signature formed during continued wave activity over a period less than a day. These results are consistent with wave‐particle interaction theory and support the hypothesis that EMIC waves are an important mechanism for rapid relativistic electron loss from the radiation belts.

Bingley, L.↗

Evaluating the Socioeconomic Impacts of Rapid Assembly and Deployment of Geospatial Data in Wildfire Emergency Response Planning: A Case Study Using the NASA RECOVER Decision Support System (DSS)

Today’s extended fire seasons and large fire footprints have prompted state and federal land management agencies to devote increasingly larger portions of their budget to wildfire management. As fire costs continue to rise, timely and comprehensive fire information becomes increasingly critical to response and rehabilitation efforts. The NASA Rehabilitation Capability Convergence for Ecosystem Recovery (RECOVER) post-fire decision support system is a server-based application designed to rapidly provide land managers with the information needed to develop a comprehensive rehabilitation plan. This study tested the efficacy of RECOVER through structured interviews with land managers (n=15) who used RECOVER and were responsible for post-fire rehabilitation efforts on over 645 000 ha of fire-affected lands. Although the benefit of better-informed decisions is difficult to quantify, the results of this study illustrate RECOVER’s decision support capabilities provided information to land managers that either validated or altered their decisions on post-fire treatments estimated at over $1.2 million (USD) and saved nearly 800 hours of staff time by streamlining data collection as well as communication with local stakeholders and partnering agencies.

William Toombs↗

Renewable Energy Contingencies in Power Systems: Concept and Case Study

This paper introduces the concept of renewable energy contingencies that represent long-term/extended variability of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources, namely, significant periods (e.g., days/weeks) of low wind/solar availability. These contingencies have not received much attention to date but are likely to emerge as a major issue in some countries such as India as the share of VRE increases. Using 38 years of climate model reanalysis data for wind over India, we demonstrate that low periods of wind contingency below long-term (Indian) national average of 5 m/s can extend for more than 100 days in several zones some of which are deploying large wind farms. Even in some of the best wind resource areas in India with long term average wind speed close to 7 m/s, low wind days (e.g., 5 m/s which is substantially below average) can extend up to 60 days. We propose a four-step methodology around a co-optimization based energy-ancillary services dispatch model to assess the impact of renewable contingency and implemented it for the state of Tamil Nadu, the most wind-rich state of India. We have estimated that annual renewable contingency cost impact of 5 GW additional wind in Tamil Nadu to be in the range of US$27-76 million pa. Planning analysis should embrace the concept of renewable contingency to recognize these costs and put in place necessary spinning reserve and back-up generation resources.

Mohar Chattopadhyay↗

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Aviation Operations: A Case Study

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques (MLT) to problems in aviation operations. The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large database. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. This talk describes issues to be addressed in applying either model-driven or data-driven methods. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The issues are illustrated by a detailed example and summary of current research in the area. The application of MLT to aviation operations falls into two categories 58; (a) based on the lack of a physics-based model, MLT is the favored approach and (b) marginal difference between regression methods using physics-based models and MLT. Further research is needed in the selection of MLT to critical aviation operations. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

Evolution of an Atmospheric Kármán Vortex Street From High‐Resolution Satellite Winds: Guadalupe Island Case Study

Vortex streets formed in the stratocumulus‐capped wake of mountainous islands are the atmospheric analogues of the classic Kármán vortex street observed in laboratory flows past bluff bodies. The quantitative analysis of these mesoscale unsteady atmospheric flows has been hampered by the lack of satellite wind retrievals of sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution. Taking advantage of the cutting‐edge Advanced Baseline Imager, we derived kilometer‐scale cloud‐motion winds at 5‐min frequency for a vortex street in the lee of Guadalupe Island imaged by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite‐16. Combined with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data, the geostationary imagery also provided accurate stereo cloud‐top heights. The time series of geostationary winds, supplemented with snapshots of ocean surface winds from the Advanced Scatterometer, allowed us to capture the wake oscillations and measure vortex shedding dynamics. The retrievals revealed a markedly asymmetric vortex decay, with cyclonic eddies having larger peak vorticities than anticyclonic eddies at the same downstream location. Drawing on the vast knowledge accumulated about laboratory bluff body flows, we argue that the asymmetric island wake arises from the combined effects of Earth's rotation and Guadalupe's nonaxisymmetric shape resembling an inclined flat plate at low angle of attack. However, numerical simulations will need to establish whether or not the selective destabilization of the shallow atmospheric anticyclonic eddies is caused by the same mechanisms that destabilize the deep columnar anticyclones of laboratory flows, such as three‐dimensional vertical perturbations due to centrifugal or elliptical instabilities.

Horváth, Á.↗

The Future of Oaks in the Santa Monica Mountains: A Case Study in Using Remote Sensing Data for Species Distributions Models

The Woolsey Fire began on November 8, 2018, and lasted for almost two weeks, during which it burned almost 100,000 acres of valuable landscape and habitat, including a vast area of woodland. The persistence of key woodland species provides aesthetic, monetary, and ecological value to the landscape through carbon sequestration, air temperature moderation, and erosion mitigation, among other ecosystem services. This study investigated the impact of the Woolsey Fire on native woodland species distributions and identified areas suitable for restoration within the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area. The team partnered with the Resource Conservation District of the Santa Monica Mountains; National Park Service, Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area; California Department of Parks and Recreation, Los Angeles County Division; County of Los Angeles Fire Department, Prevention Services Bureau, Forestry Division; County of Los Angeles Department of Regional Planning; and the University of Montana. The Earth observations used include data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, NASA ER-2 Jet Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, and RapidEye. The team produced maps of burn severity from the Woolsey Fire, its impact on plant species distributions, and habitat suitability projections for 2050 and 2099 to assist partners in prioritizing areas for restoration. A plant community classification was successfully created using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA). Overall accuracy was assessed at 90.54% by comparing the classification to validation pixels derived from ground truth information provided by our partners.

Roger Ly↗

Dating Igneous Rocks Using the Potassium–Argon Laser Experiment (KArLE) Instrument: A Case Study for ~380 Ma Basaltic Rocks

We report new K–Ar isochron data for two ~380 Ma basaltic rocks, using an updated version of the Potassium–Argon Laser Experiment (KArLE), which is being developed for future in situ dating of planetary materials. These basalts have K contents comparable with those of lunar KREEP basalts or igneous lithologies found by Mars rovers, whereas previous proof‐of‐concept studies focused primarily on more K‐rich rocks. We aim to measure these analogous samples to show the advancing capability of in situ K–Ar geochronology. Combining laser‐induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS), mass spectrometry (MS), and microscopic analyses, we measured the abundance of K and 40Ar from 23 spots on the basalt samples. We then constructed K–Ar isochron plots from these rocks. The breadboard instrument consists of flight‐equivalent devices including a 30‐mJ Nd:YAG laser and a quadrupole mass spectrometer. Despite much lower K abundances than in previous studies, the isochron slopes yielded 380 ± 44 Ma and 398 ± 50 Ma for 380.7‐Ma and 373.5‐Ma rocks, respectively, indicating that accuracy better than 25 Ma (<7%) is achievable with our instrument. The isochron intercepts both yielded trapped 40Ar approximately 1 × 10−6 cm3 STP/g. Our experimental results demonstrate that accurate and precise measurements are possible using the KArLE approach on basaltic rocks, which are ubiquitous on planetary surfaces, and are useful in addressing a wide range of questions in planetary science.

Yuichiro Cho↗

A Case Study on the Challenges and Opportunities for the Deployment of PHM Capabilities in Existing Engineering Systems

The field of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) of engineering systems has experienced considerable growth over the last decade. From benefits associated with faster and more powerful hardware in the form of wireless sensors, edge devices, and general computing capabilities (GPU’s and cloud computing), to development of powerful algorithms for anomaly detection and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation, the number of engineering systems featuring advanced diagnostics and prognostics capabilities continues to grow at an increasingly faster pace. However, the deployment of PHM capabilities as part of the upgrade of existing engineering systems presents multiple challenges to the PHM practitioner charged with retrofitting such systems. Issues include a lack of specific instrumentation needed to capture the signals of interest; insufficient data and sampling rates required for fault detection and diagnosis, and for detection of failure/degradation indicators; and difficulties in the identification of a system’s nominal behavior as a result of age induced degradation. Today’s PHM practitioner must be able to quickly identify and assess these types of issues to effectively evaluate and select the optimal PHM strategies required to achieve the desired results. This paper presents results from the preliminary evaluation of the High-Pressure Gas Facility (HPGF) infrastructure at NASA’s Stennis Space Center in Hancock County, Mississippi. This evaluation is part of a feasibility study conducted prior to the deployment of prognostics and diagnostics capabilities in the pumps skids of the liquid nitrogen (LN2) system of the HPGF.

Condition Based Maintenance↗

Spatial U-Pb Age Distribution in Shock-Recrystallized Zircon – A Case Study from the Rochechouart Impact Structure, France

Age determination of impact structures via the zircon U–Pb system remains challenging and often ambiguous due to highly variable effects of shock metamorphism on U-Pb geochronology. It is, therefore, crucial to link the observed zircon microtextures, including their temperature and pressure conditions associated with their formation, directly to the U–Pb ages preserved. Here, we analyzed three recrystallized zircon grains and one plastically deformed zircon crystal from the medium-sized Rochechouart impact structure in the northwestern Massif Central of France. For the Rochechouart impact structure the impact age (206.92 ± 0.32 Ma [40Ar/39Ar]) as well as the 2 tectono-themal history is well established making this study site ideal to test concepts about U-Pb systematics in shocked zircon and to differentiate between shock-driven age resetting and preimpact crystallization and metamorphic overprinting. Zircon microstructures were studied using scanning electron imaging, cathodoluminescence imaging, and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) mapping. Further, we conducted U–Pb Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) depth-profiling analysis, allowing us to interpret the resultant age data in discrete steps with increasing ablation time/depth. The U–Pb depth profiling data demonstrate that plastically strained grains are incompletely reset and preserve rim and interior age domains reflecting typical pre-impact (pre-Variscan and Variscan) regional tectonic ages. Our results also reveal that the granular crystals encountered contain microstructural evidence for “former reidite in granular neoblastic” (FRIGN) zircon, reflecting both high-pressure (⩾30GPa) and high temperature (⩾1200℃) conditions. This signifies that FRIGN zircon is now known from an additional, medium sized, impact structure further supporting the hypothesis that this impact induced microstructure is commonly preserved. In addition, FRIGN zircon has a high potential to preserve completely impact-reset crystal domains (~204 to 207 Ma) that can be identified by our combined analytical approach of U–Pb depth profiling and EBSD mapping, and thus are suitable for determining reliable impact ages

U-Pb depth profiling↗

ISS Columbus Heat Exchanger Close Call Investigation Case Study

During International Space Station (ISS) Expedition 38, just days before Christmas 2013, the External Active Thermal Control System (EATCS) on the ISS Columbus Moderate Temperature Loop (MTL) Interface Heat Exchanger (IFHX) shut down due to low temperatures. Engineers on the ground scrambled for several days to troubleshoot a pump module Flow Control Valve (FCV) problem, however; no one recognized that the core temperature of the Columbus MTL IFHX was continuing to drop, to the point that water in the system could freeze. Freezing could rupture the core, resulting in high pressure ammonia entering the cabin of the ISS. With no way to clean up the ammonia, ISS crew would have to evacuate the U.S. segment of the station. Columbus MTL IFHX rupture is considered a catastrophic failure and could potentially result in a loss of crew/loss of vehicle. How did engineers miss this potentially catastrophic issue?

Joyce B Abbey↗

Air Quality Monitoring Case Study Using Mobile Low-cost Sensors Mounted on Trash-Trucks: Methods Development and Lessons Learned

Air quality monitoring (AQM) is crucial for cities to develop management plans supporting population health. However, there is a dearth of measurements due to the high cost of standard reference instruments. Mobile AQM using low-cost sensors deployed on routine fleets of vehicles can enable the continuous detection of fine-scale pollutant variations in cities at a lower cost. New methods need to be developed to interpret these measurements. This paper presents three such methods. First, we propose a technique to identify aerosol hotspots. Second, we employ techniques published previously to assess the generalizable map of fine and coarse particle number concentrations, to understand qualitatively the contribution of local and regional sources across the region sampled. By using the raw number concentration of differently sized particles from the Optical Particle Counters (OPCs) instead of the noisier mass concentrations, we obtain more robust results. Third, in order to evaluate source signatures in cities, we propose another technique, in which we cluster the entire range of aerosol size-distribution measurements acquired. The properties of each cluster provide insight into the aerosol source characteristics in the sampling environment. We test these methods using a dataset we collected by mounting OPCs on two trash-trucks in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Drive-by sensing↗

Air Quality Monitoring Case Study Using Mobile Low-cost Sensors mounted on Trash-Trucks: Methods Development and Lessons Learned

Air quality monitoring (AQM) is crucial for cities to develop management plans supporting population health. However, there is a dearth of measurements due to the high cost of standard reference instruments. Mobile AQM using low-cost sensors deployed on routine fleets of vehicles can enable the continuous detection of fine-scale pollutant variations in cities at a lower cost. New methods need to be developed to interpret these measurements. This paper presents three such methods. First, we propose a technique to identify aerosol hotspots. Second, we employ techniques published previously to assess the generalizable map of fine and coarse particle number concentrations, to understand qualitatively the contribution of local and regional sources across the region sampled. By using the raw number concentration of differently sized particles from the Optical Particle Counters (OPCs) instead of the noisier mass concentrations, we obtain more robust results. Third, in order to evaluate source signatures in cities, we propose another technique, in which we cluster the entire range of aerosol size-distribution measurements acquired. The properties of each cluster provide insight into the aerosol source characteristics in the sampling environment. We test these methods using a dataset we collected by mounting OPCs on two trash-trucks in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Drive-by sensing↗

A Coupled Analysis of Atmospheric Mass Loss and Tidal Evolution in XUV Irradiated Exoplanets: The TRAPPIST-1 Case Study

Exoplanets residing close to their stars can experience evolution of both their physical structures and their orbits due to the influence of their host stars. In this work, we present a coupled analysis of dynamical tidal dissipation and atmospheric mass loss for exoplanets in X-ray and ultraviolet (XUV) irradiated environments. As our primary application, we use this model to study the TRAPPIST-1 system and place constraints on the interior structure and orbital evolution of the planets. We start by reporting on an ultraviolet continuum flux measurement (centered around ∼1900 Å) for the star TRAPPIST-1, based on 300 ks of Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory data, and which enables an estimate of the XUV-driven thermal escape arising from XUV photodissociation for each planet. We find that the X-ray flaring luminosity, measured from our X-ray detections, of TRAPPIST-1 is 5.6 × 10(exp −4) L(*), while the full flux including non-flaring periods is 6.1 × 10(exp −5) L*, when L(*) is TRAPPIST-1ʼs bolometric luminosity. We then construct a model that includes both atmospheric mass loss and tidal evolution and requires the planets to attain their present-day orbital elements during this coupled evolution. We use this model to constrain the ratio Q' = 3Q/2k2 for each planet. Finally, we use additional numerical models implemented with the Virtual Planet Simulator VPLanet to study ocean retention for these planets using our derived system parameters.

Juliette Becker↗