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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) Water Electrolysis: Cell-Level Considerations for Gigawatt-Scale Deployment

Hydrogen produced with no greenhouse gas emissions is termed “green hydrogen” and will be essential to reaching decarbonization targets set forth by nearly every country as per the Paris Agreement. Proton exchange membrane water electrolyzers (PEMWEs) are expected to contribute substantially to the green hydrogen market. However, PEMWE market penetration is insignificant, accounting for less than a gigawatt of global capacity. Achieving substantive decarbonization via green hydrogen will require PEMWEs to reach capacities of hundreds of gigawatts by 2030. This paper serves as an overarching roadmap for cell-level improvements necessary for gigawatt-scale PEMWE deployment, with insights from three well-established hydrogen technology companies included. Analyses will be presented for economies of scale, renewable energy prices, government policies, accelerated stress tests, and component-specific improvements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nonenergy Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS): Assessing Durability of Nongaseous Carbon Products Across Terrestrial Storage Fates

Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage, or BiCRS, pathways use plants or algae that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and store it underground or in long-lived products. While some BiCRS approaches generate an energy product, all BiCRS approaches generate a carbon product. A new subset of BiCRS approaches focus on the storage of these raw or converted carbon products for generation of carbon credits. However, the durability of these approaches is highly variable as carbon products vary widely in their “form” and the conditions of their “fate.” We organize our thinking about carbon products and their durability around these two primary axes. The durability of carbon product “forms” is mediated by chemical recalcitrance and ranges substantially across agricultural residues, municipal solid waste, woody biomass, and nongaseous products of thermochemical conversion (e.g., biochars and bio-oils). Meanwhile, terrestrial storage “fates” vary in the mechanism employed to stall decay, including surface storage, dry storage, shallow anoxic storage, and deep or geologic anoxic storage (or injection). Each mechanism has different implications for suitability with different feedstock forms as well as long-term risks. We present a framework for assessing durability of solid or liquid raw and conversion carbon products under terrestrial storage fates, highlighting knowns, unknowns, and research priorities moving forward.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flow Reactor Study of the Soot Precursors of Novel Cycloalkanes as Synthetic Jet Fuel Compounds: Octahydroindene, p -Menthane, and 1,4-Dimethylcyclooctane

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) or Synthetic aviation turbine fuels (SATFs) derived from nonpetroleum sources are essential for energy security and a strong rural and agricultural economy. Airplanes operating on SAF can have lower particle emissions compared to those of conventional jet fuel, reducing air quality impacts near airports. Processing biobased isoprene or wood and agricultural waste can produce cycloalkane-rich fuels with properties meeting ASTM International’s SATF requirements. The unique structures of these cycloalkanes yield lower soot emissions because of their lack of aromatic rings. We measured the soot formation tendency as yield sooting index (YSI) and used laminar flow reactor experiments to evaluate soot precursors formed for isoprene-derived compounds p-menthane and 1,4-dimethylcyclooctane (DMCO), and octahydroindene (OHI)─ produced from woody biomass via catalytic fast pyrolysis. The combustion chemistry of the OHI and DMCO has not been previously studied. Experiments were conducted at 10 bar from 800 to 1200 K, equivalence ratios of 1.0 and 3.0, and residence times of 1.0 and 0.6 s, respectively. Experimentally detected species were used to elucidate the mechanisms of soot precursor formation. OHI exhibited the highest YSI (94.5) and formed a high concentration of benzene primarily by direct dehydrogenation of the six-membered ring. p-Menthane (YSI 92.0) and DMCO (YSI 85.0) oxidation products included fewer aromatic components but higher benzene precursors, including 1,3-butadiene, propyne, and allene. This suggests that the ring-opening pathway is dominant over the dehydrogenation pathway in the benzene formation for these compounds. This experimental speciation provides insight into the influence of the cycloalkane structure on the sooting tendencies of potential SAF blend components, thereby aiding in fuel design processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Perspective on Quantum Computing Applications in Quantum Chemistry Using 25-100 Logical Qubits

The intersection of quantum computing and quantum chemistry represents a promising frontier for achieving quantum utility in domains of both scientific and societal relevance. Owing to the exponential growth of classical resource requirements for simulating quantum systems, quantum chemistry has long been recognized as a natural candidate for quantum computation. This perspective focuses on identifying scientifically meaningful use cases where early fault-tolerant quantum computers, which are considered to be equipped with approximately 25-100 logical qubits, could deliver tangible impact. While recent advances in classical computing have pushed the boundaries of tractable simulations to unprecedented scales, this logical-qubit regime represents the first window where quantum devices can pursue qualitatively distinct strategies, such as polynomial-scaling phase estimation, direct simulation of quantum dynamics, and active-space embedding, that remain challenging for classical solvers, such as multireference charge-transfer and conical-intersection states central to photochemistry and materials design. We highlight near-term opportunities in algorithm and software design, discuss representative chemical problems suited for quantum acceleration, and propose strategic roadmaps and collaborative pathways for advancing practical quantum utility in quantum chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spin-Correlated Radical Pairs as Magnetic Switches for Controlling Emissive Triplet States via Triplet–Triplet Energy Transfer

Magnetic fields offer a powerful means to control molecular emission, enabling quantum sensing and spin-level control of chemical reactions. Here, we demonstrate a strategy to magnetically control red to near-infrared phosphorescence via triplet–triplet energy transfer (TTET) from donor–chiral bridge–acceptor (D−χ–A) molecules that generate spin-correlated radical pairs (SCRPs) upon photoexcitation. These SCRPs yield non-emissive triplet excited states whose formation is sensitive to magnetic fields. Here, by transferring this energy to emissive Pt- and Pd-based π-extended porphyrins, we enable magnetic control over phosphorescence that would otherwise be unresponsive to weak magnetic fields (<1 T). This approach establishes a platform for quantifying magnetic field effects on silent triplet states while extending magnetically responsive emission into the near-infrared. Coupling SCRP-based molecular magnetic switches to long-wavelength emissive acceptors offers a new way for probing and modulating spin-dependent processes and triplet-state populations in molecular systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Unique Case of the “Goldilocks Rule” in Solid-State Electrolytes: Two Are Good, Four Are Too Many

We report the syntheses of two new series of methacrylate monomers with different backbones: ureidopyrimidinone (PU) and boron-substituted urea pyrimidine (U), which enhance both the mechanical and electrochemical properties of the solid-state electrolyte (SSE) while improving the cycle life of lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO 4 , LFP) cathodes. The PU backbone is characterized by four hydrogen bonds (H-bonds), while the U backbone bears only two. Importantly, our research reveals that two H-bonds in these monomers are optimal; in contrast, four are excessive. The exceptional mechanical properties and processability of the SSE with the U series additives, resulting from the optimal H-bonds, were unexpectedly achieved. This leads to the establishment of a “Goldilocks rule” for additive design. The key strategies include: 1) reducing hydrogen-bonding (H-bonding) sites by changing pyrimidinone to pyrimidine and 2) shifting from intermolecular to intramolecular H-bonding and π−π bonding. Furthermore, this reduction in H-bonding also offers significant advantages in processability. The advancement can be extended to electrode fabrication, making the manufacturing of all-solid-state batteries more practical and efficient.

hydrogen bonding↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unusual Electrochemical Activity of Thin SiO 2 Layers Leads to Instability of Molecular Attachment in Hybrid Photoelectrodes

Hybrid photoelectrodes, comprised of a light-absorbing semiconductor and a surface-integrated molecular catalyst, are attractive for applications in artificial photosynthesis, since they combine the advantages of broadband semiconductor light absorption with the selectivity of molecular catalysis. A widely used class of hybrid photoelectrodes is based on Si substrates passivated by a thin (<3 nm) layer of silicon oxide, which is commonly prepared by controlled chemical or thermal oxidation, resulting in chemical oxide (ChO) or thermal oxide (ThO) layers, respectively. However, the electrochemical stability of these oxide layers, and the chemical stability of the semiconductor-molecule assembly in hybrid photoelectrodes, are not well understood, with evidence that covalently-bound molecules detach from the oxide surface upon application of cathodic bias. We have examined the intrinsic electrochemical reactivity of silicon oxide layers and how it affects the attachment of molecular monolayers. We determined that the surface of Si|ThO is primarily terminated with hydrophobic siloxane moieties, whereas that of Si|ChO contains a higher concentration of hydrophilic silanol groups. Initial high current densities for Si|ChO under applied bias up to -2 V vs. Ag/AgCl, decrease during repeated cyclic voltammetry scans, due to the consumption of surface-bound water. This is manifested by a reversible wave around -0.5 V in CH 3 CN solution, and a similar pH-dependent wave in water, revealing the pK a of the silanol groups to be ~4. Here, our combined observations support the electrochemically-induced dehydration of the SiO 2 surface, which converts silanol groups to siloxanes and proceeds through an H-atom intermediate that is most likely stabilized by pentavalent Si. We propose that similar reactivity is responsible for the electrochemical loss of alkylsiloxane-attached molecules under cathodic bias, which has important implications for the choice of catalyst attachment strategy in hybrid photoelectrodes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Catalytic Hydrogenation of a Ruthenium Carbonyl to Formyl Enabled by Metal–Ligand Cooperation

Metal formyl complexes are critical intermediates in the reduction of CO to valuable products such as methanol and higher alcohols/hydrocarbons, yet examples of formyl generation via the catalytic hydrogenation of transition metal carbonyl complexes under mild conditions are lacking. The catalytic hydrogenation of a ruthenium carbonyl complex with H 2 to produce a formyl complex is reported here. Two classes of hydrogenation catalysts were compared: bis(diphosphine)-ligated complexes that proceed via termolecular H 2 splitting with an external base and pincer-ligated complexes that proceed via an H 2 splitting mechanism involving metal–ligand cooperativity. The hydride transfer and H 2 splitting steps were evaluated for both classes of catalysts, revealing advantages for catalysts that utilize metal–ligand cooperativity and elucidating conditions to promote formyl generation. Only the pincer-ligated Ir and Ru complexes capable of reacting via pathways involving metal–ligand cooperativity were suitable for catalysis. Using 1–10 mol % of the catalysts (PNP)Ir(H) 2 and (HPNP)Ru(H) 2 (CO) (PNP = ( i Pr 2 PC 2 H 4 ) 2 N – ), which use metal–ligand cooperation to activate H 2 , up to 10 turnovers or up to 71% yield were achieved for the conversion of [Ru(bpy) 2 (CO) 2 ] 2+ (bpy = 2,2′-bipyridine) to the formyl complex [Ru(bpy) 2 (CO)(CHO)] + . The Lewis acid B(C 6 F 5 ) 3 was required as an additive to achieve high yields of the formyl complex using (HPNP)Ru(H) 2 (CO) as a catalyst. In conclusion, the catalytic route avoids the use of expensive stoichiometric reagents, such as borohydride, instead generating metal formyls that are key intermediates in CO reduction schemes with H 2 gas.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Base-Free Catalytic Transfer Hydrogenation of Alkyl Formates and Organic Esters at Mild Temperature

The pincer-ligated ruthenium complex ( iPr PN H P)Ru(CO)H 2 ( iPr PN H P = ( i Pr 2 PC 2 H 4 ) 2 NH) is an active catalyst for the transfer hydrogenation of alkyl formates (HCO 2 R) and organic esters (RCO 2 R′) to the corresponding alcohols under base-free reaction conditions at mild temperatures. Specifically, a range of alkyl formate esters were reduced to MeOH and the corresponding alcohols in high yields using ( iPr PN H P)Ru(CO)H 2 as the catalyst and isopropanol ( i PrOH) as the hydrogen donor at 30 °C. The first step in the process is the metal-catalyzed transesterification of the alkyl formate with i PrOH to generate isopropyl formate, which is then reduced. The use of i PrOH as the hydrogen donor is crucial. ( iPr PN H P)Ru(CO)H 2 can also catalyze the transfer hydrogenation of a broad range of organic esters, including cyclic, acyclic, heteroatom-substituted, and long-chain bio-derived esters, to the corresponding alcohols in good yields using ethanol (EtOH) as the hydrogen donor at 55 °C. Computational studies were used to elucidate the proposed pathway for alkyl formate reduction and the underlying reasons why i PrOH is the most effective hydrogen donor for alkyl formate reduction, while EtOH is optimal for organic ester reduction. Overall, this work describes a highly active catalyst for alkyl formate and organic ester transfer hydrogenation and provides mechanistic insight into the factors responsible for the strong catalytic performance. Finally, these findings will be valuable for designing catalysts for both transfer hydrogenation and related reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thioesters Support Efficient Protein Biosynthesis by the Ribosome

Thioesters are critical chemical intermediates in numerous extant biochemical reactions and are invoked as key reagents during prebiotic peptide synthesis on an evolving Earth. Here we asked if a thioester could replace the native oxo-ester in acyl-tRNA substrates during protein biosynthesis by the ribosome. We prepared 3'-thio-3'-deoxyadenosine triphosphate in 10 steps from xylose and demonstrated that it is an effective substrate for the Escherichia coli CCA-adding enzyme, which appends 3'-thio-3'-deoxyadenosine to truncated tRNAs ending with 3'-CC. Using a variety of aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, flexizymes, or a direct thioester exchange reaction, we prepared a suite of 3'-thio-tRNAs acylated with α- and non-α-amino acids. All were recognized and utilized by wild-type E. coli ribosomes during in vitro translation reactions to generate oligopeptides in yields commensurate with native oxo-ester tRNAs. These results indicate that thioester intermediates widely used in Nature can be co-opted to support the incorporation of natural α-amino acids as well as noncanonical monomers by the extant translational machinery for sequence-defined polymer synthesis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synergistic Interactions During Co-Hydrothermal Liquefaction of Food Waste and Biomass Model Compounds for Increased Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of lignocellulosic biomass is plagued with low biocrude yields owing to the tendency of highly reactive oxygenated intermediates to condense to form biochars. By contrast, the high protein content in food waste is comprised of substantial nitrogen species, which are known to interact strongly with oxygenates through Maillard, amide, and peptide bond formation reactions. Co-feeding food waste and lignocellulose opens new reaction pathways for biocrude formation but is currently poorly understood. This work evaluated the molecular level interactions between food waste and lignocellulose model compounds and the corresponding effect on product yields and quality. Food waste–cellulose and food waste–xylan feedstock blends achieved maximum biocrude carbon yield improvements of 12.2% and 10.1%, respectively, relative to a simple linear model that interpolates between the yields of the pure feedstocks. Increases in biocrude yield were balanced by corresponding decreases in char yield, indicating synergistic interactions between the feeds during HTL. Biocrude volatility analysis revealed that increased biocrude yield preferentially benefitted the jet fuel fraction, which comprised up to 22.6% of the total carbon yield for food waste–cellulose blends. Biocrude and char were analyzed using GC–MS and FT-IR spectroscopy to investigate the source of synergistic trends and provide greater mechanistic understanding. Key cofeeding effects included the promotion of retro-aldol condensation reactions and trans-esterification of fatty acids, sequestering carbon in the biocrude phase via the inhibition of char formation while increasing biocrude volatility toward jet fuel-range compounds. These results indicate the potential for judicious selection of HTL cofeeds to increase both biocrude yield and selectivity to desired fuel precursors, including sustainable aviation fuel.

Maillard reaction↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward Continuous, Oriented Covalent Organic Framework Membranes for Precise Molecular Separations

The goal of achieving energy-efficient, precise molecular separations has motivated interest in developing and employing porous crystalline frameworks as membrane materials. Covalent organic frameworks (COFs) are ordered crystalline matrices composed of covalently bonded organic monomers and are synthesized via reversible reticular chemistry. COFs possess high porosity, structural tunability, and chemical and thermal stability, making them ideally suited for emerging, high-value membrane separation processes, such as ion separations, organic solvent nanofiltration, and gas separations. Although a range of COF membranes have been fabricated and tested in the past decade, these membranes are primarily polycrystalline, weakly crystalline, and/or discontinuous, resulting in suboptimal performance. In this review, we identify the properties that make COFs well-suited as membrane materials, while critically outlining the shortcomings of existing disordered COF membranes. We then highlight the recent emergence of highly crystalline, continuous, oriented two-dimensional COF membranes as a promising path forward for highly selective molecular separations. These continuous, oriented COF membranes exhibit tunable one-dimensional nanochannels, allowing for ultrafast molecular transport and precise species selectivity, thereby expanding the set of separations that can be practically achieved with membrane systems. We discuss synthesis and modification techniques that result in continuous, oriented COF membranes and evaluate the performance of such membranes for a variety of molecular separations. We conclude by identifying ongoing challenges in the development of COF membranes and outlining the future of their applications in molecular separations, which will necessarily rely on advancements in the synthesis of continuous, oriented membranes.

COF modification↗
DOE OSTI2025

Amplifying Magnetic Field Effects on Upconversion Emission via Molecular Qubit-Driven Triplet–Triplet Annihilation

Triplet-triplet annihilation (TTA) enables photon upconversion by combining two lower-energy triplet excitons to produce a higher-energy singlet exciton. This mechanism enhances light-harvesting efficiency for solar energy conversion and enables the use of lower-energy photons in bioimaging and photoredox catalysis applications. The magnetic modulation of such high-energy excitons presents an exciting opportunity to develop molecular quantum information technologies. While the spin dynamics of triplet exciton pairs are sensitive to external magnetic fields, the magnetic field effects (MFEs) associated with these pairs are generally limited by spin statistics to at most 10% at low fields (<1 Tesla), making them challenging to apply in technological advancements. In contrast, MFEs on spin-correlated radical pairs (SCRPs) can be significantly greater, surpassing those on triplet pairs. By using SCRPs-based molecular qubits as triplet sensitizers in the sensitized TTA scheme, we can magnetically modulate TTA and consequently, the delayed fluorescence of annihilators. In our current system, we have achieved more than 70% magnetic modulation of delayed fluorescence, effectively harnessing and even amplifying magnetic modulation within SCRPs to influence high-energy excitons. In conclusion, this work opens new opportunities for advancing spin-controlled chemical reactions and molecular quantum information technologies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elucidation of Marcus Relationships for Hydride Transfer Reactions Involving Transition Metal Hydrides

The rate of hydride transfer from three Ir hydride complexes of the type Cp*Ir( R bpy)H + (Cp* = C 5 Me 5 ; R bpy = 4,4′-R-2,2′-bipyridine, R = OMe, H, CO 2 Me) to six N-methylacridinium ( R Acr + ) acceptors with electronically different substituents in the 2- or 2,7-positions were measured. Using the thermodynamic hydricity of the donors and the hydride affinity of the acceptors the thermodynamic driving forces for hydride transfer were determined. Brønsted plots, which correlate kinetic and thermodynamic hydricity, demonstrate distinct linear free energy relationships for each complex, with different Brønsted α values. Thus, at the same driving force hydride transfer from Cp*Ir( OMe bpy)H + is faster than for Cp*Ir(bpy)H + or Cp*Ir( CO2Me bpy)H + . Experimental and computational analyses are consistent with a concerted hydride transfer mechanism for all Ir complexes. As the thermodynamic driving force increases an earlier transition state is observed and all transition states also include π-stacking interactions between the donor and acceptor, which likely contribute to the different α values. The experimental data fits well to the Marcus model, enabling the determination of reorganization energies (λ) that range from 58 to 69 kcal mol -1 . These are lower than λ values for hydride transfer reactions involving organic donors and acceptors. This work provides a rare example of the correlation of kinetic and thermodynamic hydricity using only experimental data and shows that hydride transfer reactions involving metal hydrides can follow Marcus theory. Furthermore, the findings offer insight into controlling metal-catalyzed hydride transfer reactions, which is valuable for designing improved systems for a range of transformations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

AMOC Variability in Climate Models and Its Dependence on the Mean State

Abstract Understanding internal variability of the climate system is critical when isolating internal and anthropogenically forced signals. Here, we investigate the modes of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC ) variability using perturbation experiments with the Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace's (IPSL) coupled model and compare them to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) pre‐industrial control simulations. We identify two characteristic modes of variability—decadal‐to‐multidecadal ( DMD var ) and centennial ( CEN var ). The former is driven largely by temperature anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic, while the latter is driven by salinity in the western subpolar North Atlantic. The amplitude of each mode scales linearly with the mean AMOC strength in the IPSL experiments. The DMD var amplitude correlates well with the AMOC mean strength across CMIP6 models, while the CEN var mode does not. These findings suggest that the strength of DMD var depends robustly on the North Atlantic mean state, while the CEN var mode may be model‐dependent.

Ferster, Brady S. [LOCEAN‐IPSL Sorbonne Université↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propagation and Periodicity of Mars's Northern Annular Mode Modulates the Dust Cycle

Abstract We document the propagation of annular modes—zonally symmetric patterns of variability—in Mars's atmosphere using a reanalysis dataset. Mars's Northern Annular Mode (MNAM) sees anomalies of zonal‐mean zonal wind emerge near the subtropics and migrate poleward with a period of 150 days, similarly to Earth's Southern Annular Mode. The mechanism of propagation involves the interaction of the two leading empirical orthogonal functions that define the MNAM. Moreover, the propagation encourages alternating bands of surface wind stress to migrate polewards with a 150‐day period. In addition, a 150‐day periodicity in anomalous column dust optical depth most likely emerges in response to extrema of the MNAM. The combination of the impact of the MNAM's internally forced periodicity on the surface wind stress and the seasonal cycle may contribute to the inter‐annual variability of global dust events, as suggested by a Monte Carlo estimate that correctly approximates the observed incidence of global dust events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale Convective Systems Tracking Method Intercomparison (MCSMIP): Application to DYAMOND Global km‐Scale Simulations

Abstract Global kilometer‐scale models represent the future of Earth system modeling, enabling explicit simulation of organized convective storms and their associated extreme weather. Here, we comprehensively evaluate tropical mesoscale convective system (MCS) characteristics in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) simulations for both summer and winter phases. Using 10 different feature trackers applied to simulations and satellite observations, we assess MCS frequency, precipitation, and other key characteristics. Substantial differences (a factor of 2–3) arise among trackers in observed MCS frequency and their precipitation contribution, but model‐observation differences in MCS statistics are more consistent across trackers. DYAMOND models are generally skillful in simulating tropical mean MCS frequency, with multi‐model mean biases ranging from −2%–8% over land and −8%–8% over ocean (summer vs. winter). However, most DYAMOND models underestimate MCS precipitation amount (23%) and their contribution to total precipitation (17%). Biases in precipitation contributions are generally smaller over land (13%) than over ocean (21%), with moderate inter‐model variability. While models better simulate MCS diurnal cycles and cloud shield characteristics, they overestimate MCS precipitation intensity and underestimate stratiform rain contributions (up to a factor of 2), particularly over land, albeit observational uncertainties exist. Additionally, models exhibit a wide range of precipitable water in the tropics compared to reanalysis and satellite observations, with many models showing exaggerated sensitivity of MCS precipitation intensity to precipitable water. The MCS metrics developed here provide process‐oriented diagnostics to guide future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric River Detection Under Changing Seasonality and Mean-State Climate: ARTMIP Tier 2 Paleoclimate Experiments

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filamentary structures within the atmosphere that account for a substantial portion of poleward moisture transport and play an important role in Earth's hydroclimate. However, there is no one quantitative definition for what constitutes an atmospheric river, leading to uncertainty in quantifying how these systems respond to global change. This study seeks to better understand how different AR detection tools (ARDTs) respond to changes in climate states utilizing single-forcing climate model experiments under the aegis of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP). We compare a simulation with an early Holocene orbital configuration and another with CO2 levels of the Last Glacial Maximum to a preindustrial control simulation to test how the ARDTs respond to changes in seasonality and mean climate state, respectively. We find good agreement among the algorithms in the AR response to the changing orbital configuration, with a poleward shift in AR frequency that tracks seasonal poleward shifts in atmospheric water vapor and zonal winds. In the low CO2 simulation, the algorithms generally agree on the sign of AR changes, but there is substantial spread in their magnitude, indicating that mean-state changes lead to larger uncertainty. This disagreement likely arises primarily from differences between algorithms in their thresholds for water vapor and its transport used for identifying ARs. These findings warrant caution in ARDT selection for paleoclimate and climate change studies in which there is a change to the mean climate state, as ARDT selection contributes substantial uncertainty in such cases.

Atmospheric river, paleoclimate↗