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DOE OSTI2023

Comparing quantile regression forest and mixture density long short-term memory models for probabilistic post-processing of satellite precipitation-driven streamflow simulations

Abstract. Deep learning (DL) and machine learning (ML) are widely used in hydrological modelling, which plays a critical role in improving the accuracy of hydrological predictions. However, the trade-off between model performance and computational cost has always been a challenge for hydrologists when selecting a suitable model, particularly for probabilistic post-processing with large ensemble members. This study aims to systematically compare the quantile regression forest (QRF) model and countable mixtures of asymmetric Laplacians long short-term memory (CMAL-LSTM) model as hydrological probabilistic post-processors. Specifically, we evaluate their ability in dealing with biased streamflow simulations driven by three satellite precipitation products across 522 nested sub-basins of the Yalong River basin in China. Model performance is comprehensively assessed using a series of scoring metrics from both probabilistic and deterministic perspectives. Our results show that the QRF model and the CMAL-LSTM model are comparable in terms of probabilistic prediction, and their performances are closely related to the flow accumulation area (FAA) of the sub-basin. The QRF model outperforms the CMAL-LSTM model in most sub-basins with smaller FAA, while the CMAL-LSTM model has an undebatable advantage in sub-basins with FAA larger than 60 000 km2 in the Yalong River basin. In terms of deterministic predictions, the CMAL-LSTM model is preferred, especially when the raw streamflow is poorly simulated and used as input. However, setting aside the differences in model performance, the QRF model with 100-member quantiles demonstrates a noteworthy advantage by exhibiting a 50 % reduction in computation time compared to the CMAL-LSTM model with the same ensemble members in all experiments. As a result, this study provides insights into model selection in hydrological post-processing and the trade-offs between model performance and computational efficiency. The findings highlight the importance of considering the specific application scenario, such as the catchment size and the required accuracy level, when selecting a suitable model for hydrological post-processing.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2019

Size-resolved ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations from the MOSAiC campaign

Sample collection: Ground-based immersion mode ice nucleation measurements were conducted on samples collected at the U.S. DOE ARM AMF2 onboard the R/V Polarstern P-deck during MOSAiC from 23 Oct 2019 to 01 Oct 2020. Samples were collected using a Davis Rotating-drum Unit for Monitoring (DRUM; DRUMAir, LLC) cascading impactor in 4 stages (i.e., size bins). Instrument information on the model used, the DA400, can be found at the DRUMAir website (http://www.drumair.com/). Stages A, B, C, and D had particle size cuts at 2.96, 1.21, 0.34, and 0.15 µm in particle diameter, respectively. Strips of sample substrate (PFA, perfluoroalkoxy; McMaster) were adhered to each disc in each stage and coated with petrolatum to enable particles to stick on impact. The discs move slowly over time, such that aerosol loading is streaked onto the PFA. Every 24 hours, a blank is created on the PFA to separate daily samples. During MOSAiC, the pump typically pulled 20 – 35 lpm (average of 32 lpm) at the inlet with all the discs in place in each stage. Daily samples were collected for each of the four stages, equaling 28,800 – 50,400 total L of air (average of 46,080 L total L of air) per sample. Discs rotated for approximately 24 days before the sampling per strip was complete and changed to a new disc. Discs were stored frozen after collection. Sample preparation for analysis: Following collection and transport from MOSAiC to the Kreidenweis/DeMott laboratory, care of PI Creamean, in Fort Collins, CO, strips were removed from the discs and cut up to separate daily samples. Each daily portion of the strip was stored in separate sterile 15-mL centrifuge tubes and stored in a standard commercial freezer until analysis (approximately 4 – 12 months after collection). Sample analysis: Drop freezing assays (DFAs) were conducted on one daily sample set every 3 – 4 days of the study for all four stages using the Colorado State University (CSU) cold plate (CP). Sample set days were chosen to cover the entire year of MOSAiC and avoiding days where the AOS purge system was activated. Immediately after removal from the freezer, 2 mL of 0.1-µm filtered deionized water was added with a single-use sterile syringe directly to the tubes, then mixed using a vortex mixer for at least 30 minutes at 500 rpm to resuspend particles from the PFA into the deionized water. Following sample preparation, another single-use syringe was used to create 100 aliquots on a 3-inch diameter copper plate, then covered with a transparent plastic dome. The drops were approximately the same volume (2.5 µL each), though careful inspection. The plate was cooled at approximately 3 – 10 K min-1 from room temperature until all drops froze on the plate. Temperature was measured by an Omega thermocouple probes and meter. Drop freezing was visually detected but recorded through monitoring software to provide the time frozen, channel of the meter used, temperature, and cooling rate for each drop. Not all 100 drops were always detected; the total number of rows in each data file equals the number of drops recorded, which typically was > 80 %. Each sample was tested three times (i.e., a new set of 100 drops was created for each test). Data provided are files containing these parameters. From the freezing temperatures recorded, the fraction frozen was and INP concentrations were calculated per L of air using the equation from Vali (1971): [INPs] = −(ln(f)/Valiquot)*(Vsuspension/Vair) where f is the proportion of droplets not frozen, Valiquot is the volume of each aliquot (i.e., 2.5e-6 L), Vsuspension is the volume of the suspension (i.e., 0.002 L), and Vair is the volume of air per sample (i.e., 36000 L). Data usage guidance: There are three files included with this dataset: (1) dumcp_inp_concentrations.csv which includes cumulative INP concentrations binned every 0.5 °C from 0 to –30 °C for all samples and size ranges (i.e., DRUM stages) processed via DFA using the CSU CP; (2) dumcp_inp_standard_deviation.csv which includes the standard deviations for all samples and temperatures in dumcp_inp_concentrations.csv; and (3) dumcp_blank_concentrations_standard_deviation.csv which includes the INP concentrations and standard deviations for the deionized water and PFA blanks binned every 0.5 °C from 0 to –30 °C. The first column in each file represents the freezing temperature in °C binned every 0.5 °C from 0 to –30 °C (first cell in this column = header = “temp”). The second column in each file represents the standard deviation of each temperature bin in °C (first cell in this column = header = “temperr”). For file (1) dumcp_inp_concentrations.csv, the remaining columns indicate the INP concentrations per L of air for each temperature bin. For each sample column, the header in the first row indicates the stage (i.e., size bin as “A_”, “B_”, “C_”, or “D_”) and date (“_yyyymmdd) of collection. For file (2) dumcp_inp_standard_deviation.csv, the remaining columns indicate the INP concentration standard deviation per L of air for each temperature bin. For each sample column, the header in the first row indicates the stage (i.e., size bin as “A_”, “B_”, “C_”, or “D_”) and date (“_yyyymmdd) of collection. For file (3) dumcp_blank_concentrations_standard_deviation.csv, the remaining columns indicate the INP concentrations and standard deviations for the deionized water blank (“di_0.1” and “di_0.1sd” for the concentrations and standard deviations, respectively) and PFA blank (“pfa” and “pfasd” for the concentrations and standard deviations, respectively). Please see Creamean et al. (2019a; 2018a; 2018b; 2019b) for additional details on DRUM sample collection and offline processing. For questions or help with data interpretation, contact Dr. Jessie Creamean (jessie.creamean@colostate.edu). References: Creamean, J. M., Mignani, C., Bukowiecki, N., and Conen, F.: Using spectra characteristics to identify ice nucleating particle populations during winter storms in the Alps, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8123–8140, 2019a. Creamean, J. M., Kirpes, R. M., Pratt, K. A., Spada, N. S., Maahn, M., de Boer, G., Schnell, R. C., and China, S.: Marine and terrestrial influences on ice nucleating particles during continuous springtime measurements in an Arctic oilfield location, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18, 18023-18042, 10.5194/acp-18-18023-2018, 2018a. Creamean, J. M., Primm, K. M., Tolbert, M. A., Hall, E. G., Wendell, J., Jordan, A., Sheridan, P. J., Smith, J., and Schnell, R. C.: HOVERCAT: A novel aerial system for evaluation of aerosol-cloud interactions, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 11, 3969-3985, 10.5194/amt-11-3969-2018, 2018b. Creamean, J. M., Cross, J. N., Pickart, R., McRaven, L., Lin, P., Pacini, A., Hanlon, R., Schmale, D. G., Ceniceros, J., Aydell, T., Colombi, N., Bolger, E., and DeMott, P. J.: Ice nucleating particles carried from below a phytoplankton bloom to the Arctic atmosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 8572-8581, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083039, 2019b. Vali, G.: Quantitative Evaluation of Experimental Results an the Heterogeneous Freezing Nucleation of Supercooled Liquids, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 28, 402-409, 10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0402:qeoera>2.0.co;2, 1971.

4-stage DRUM aerosol collector (DA400),Ice nuclei,↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ice nucleating particle concentrations measured by the PNNL-CFDC during the AGINSGP field experiment

Real-time, immersion mode ambient ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations were measured at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) site during the AGINSGP field experiment using a continuous flow diffusion chamber (CFDC) from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The PNNL-CFDC is an ice-thermal gradient diffusion chamber that optically detects the freezing of single aerosol particles (Kulkarni et al. 2020). The instrument was located in the guest instrument facility (GIF) and measured INP concentrations from April 8th to April 29th. Air was drawn into the GIF through custom aluminum stack inlets (6” inner diameter) attached vertically to the outer GIF wall and the GIF outside platform. A blower pulled air through the stacks at a velocity of 1 m/s. Aerosol instruments subsampled via wall ports, through either 3/8” or 1/4" copper lines, depending on sample flow of the instrument. Kulkarni, G., Hiranuma, N., Möhler, O., Höhler, K., China, S., Cziczo, D. J., & DeMott, P. J. (2020). A new method for operating a continuous-flow diffusion chamber to investigate immersion freezing: Assessment and performance study. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 13(12), 6631–6643. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-6631-2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

DEM, DSM, and Cleaned LiDAR Point Cloud Data from the NGEE Arctic UAS Campaigns at the Teller 27 Field Site from 2017 and 2018, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Digital Surface Model (DSM) were derived from airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data collected from Los Alamos National Laboratory's (LANL) heavy-lift unoccupied aerial system (UAS) quadcopter and hexacopter platforms operated by Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic) scientists from the EES-14 group at LANL. These data were collected in August 2017 and July 2018 at the NGEE Arctic field site near mile marker 27 of the Bob Blodgett Nome-Teller Memorial Highway between Nome, Alaska and Teller, Alaska. A Vulcan Raven X8 Airframe (Mitcheldean, Gloucestershire, UK), DJI Matrice 600 Pro Airframe (Shenzhen, China), and Routescene UAV LiDARSystem (Edinburgh, Scotland, UK) were used to collect LiDAR data. Following pre-processing in Routescene LidarViewer Pro software, the LiDAR point clouds were cleaned and processed using CloudCompare software to separate ground and off-ground points. A high resolution DEM and DSM were then created using ArcGIS Pro software. This data package contains fully cleaned point clouds of ground and off-ground points (.las), a 25 cm DEM (.tif), and a 25 cm DSM (.tif) for the Teller 27 field site. Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, weather conditions, and raw lidar data and imagery can be found in the L0 datasets for these campaigns: NGA299 (2017) and NGA297 (2018). Minimally processed point clouds and auxiliary files can be found in the L1 dataset: NGA304 (2017 and 2018).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Supply Chain for Photovoltaics in the United States: 2024 in Review

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (BESS) technologies are two immediately available options for meeting U.S. electricity demands, which are increasing due to expansion of loads from end uses including data centers, buildings, vehicles, and factories. Globally, PV and BESS supply chains are dominated by products manufactured in China and elsewhere by Chinese companies. However, U.S. PV and BESS manufacturing have recently grown, with some capacity in each step of the PV supply chain, albeit not enough to currently meet demand with domestic manufacturing alone. This study analyzes U.S. PV supply chains and costs in 2024, for the crystalline silicon and cadmium telluride module supply chains. The full report additionally addresses the PV balance of system, inverter and BESS supply chains. The study concludes with an analysis of technology installation trends, government support for domestic manufacturing, manufacturing jobs, and the domestic content of PV systems installed in the United States in 2024.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gaps in global wildlife trade monitoring leave amphibians vulnerable

As the biodiversity crisis continues, we must redouble efforts to understand and curb pressures pushing species closer to extinction. One major driver is the unsustainable trade of wildlife. Trade in internationally regulated species gains the most research attention, but this only accounts for a minority of traded species and we risk failing to appreciate the scale and impacts of unregulated legal trade. Despite being legal, trade puts pressure on wild species via direct collection, introduced pathogens, and invasive species. Smaller species-rich vertebrates, such as reptiles, fish, and amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to trading because of gaps in regulations, small distributions, and demand of novel species. Here, we combine data from five sources: online web searches in six languages, Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) trade database, Law Enforcement Management Information System (LEMIS) trade inventory, IUCN assessments, and a recent literature review, to characterise the global trade in amphibians, and also map use by purpose including meat, pets, medicinal, and for research. We show that 1215 species are being traded (17% of amphibian species), almost three times previous recorded numbers, 345 are threatened, and 100 Data Deficient or unassessed. Traded species origin hotspots include South America, China, and Central Africa; sources indicate 42% of amphibians are taken from the wild. Newly described species can be rapidly traded (mean time lag of 6.5 years), including threatened and unassessed species. The scale and limited regulation of the amphibian trade, paired with the triptych of connected pressures (collection, pathogens, invasive species), warrants a re-examination of the wildlife trade status quo, application of the precautionary principle in regard to wildlife trade, and a renewed push to achieve global biodiversity goals.

Hughes, Alice C.↗

DOE OSTI2019

WEAK-STRONG SIMULATION OF BEAM-BEAM EFFECTS IN SUPER PROTON-PROTON COLLIDER

A Super Proton-Proton Collider (SPPC) that aims to explore new physics beyond the standard model will be built in China. Here we focus on the impact of beam-beam interactions in the SPPC. Simulations show that with the current optics and nominal tunes, the dynamic aperture (DA) with all the beam-beam interactions is less than 6σ, the dominant cause being the long-range interactions. First, we show the results of a tune scan done to maximize the DA. Next, we discuss the compensation of the long-range interactions by increasing the crossing angle and also by using current carrying wires.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Persistent Engagement with Chinese Characteristics

A year after its debut, the new U.S. cyber strategy of persistent engagement has been noted but apparently misunderstood by the Chinese government. This misunderstanding carries implications for both the bilateral U.S.-China relationship and U.S. cyber strategy writ large.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Keeping Classified Information Secret in the World of Quantum Computing

Quantum computing is a technology that promises to revolutionize computing by speeding up key computing tasks in are as such as machine learning and solving otherwise intractable problems.Some influential American policymakers, scholars, and analysts are extremely concerned about the effects quantum computing will have on national security. Similar to the way space technology was viewed in the context of the US-Soviet rivalry during the Cold War, scientific advancement in quantum computing is seen as a race with significant national security consequences, particularly in the emerging US-China rivalry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Moisture Transfer in Commercial Buildings Due to Air Leakage: A New Feature in the Online Airtightness Savings Calculator

Air leakage through the building envelopes is responsible for a large amount of energy use. The US Department of Energy Windows and Building Envelope Research and Development Roadmap for Emerging Technologies states that, in 2010, air infiltration was responsible for 20% of primary energy consumption attributable to the fenestration and building envelopes of commercial buildings. Despite this fact, improving airtightness is not always recognized by commercial building owners, as they have been slow in acknowledging and diminishing the detrimental effects of air leakage on energy use, comfort, indoor air quality, and building material durability.The design and construction industry would benefit from a credible, easy-to-use tool that estimates potential energy and financial savings in a standardized manner so designers and contractors can give building owners compelling reasons to invest in reducing air leakage. In 2016–2017, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, the Air Barrier Association of America, and the US-China Clean Energy Research Center for Building Energy Efficiency collaborated to develop an online calculator. This user-friendly calculator is free to the public and uses the simulation results of the whole building energy simulation tool EnergyPlus and the airflow simulation tool CONTAM. In 2018–2019, the calculator was expanded to add moisture transfer calculations given that air leakage through the building envelope can have a significant impact on moisture transfer and associated impacts. Four more commercial building types were also added to the existing database of three building types as part of this update. This paper describes the procedure used to calculate moisture transfer due to air leakage and provides examples that demonstrate the moisture transfer for each of the seven commercial building types that are currently part of the calculator.

Shrestha, Som↗

DOE OSTI2019

Energy Savings Impacts of Airtightness in U.S. Commercial Buildings

Air leakage in commercial buildings in the U.S. accounts for about one quad of energy annually. As the thermal resistance of commercial building envelopes continues to improve, the relative contribution of air leakage to heating and cooling loads is increasing. Several manufacturers have developed advance air barrier technologies and construction practices to reduce the air leakage in buildings. To help in the market penetration of these advance technologies, advances in easy to use tools for determining the impact of air leakage are needed. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the Air Barrier Association of America, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and the US-China Clean Energy Research Center for Building Energy Efficiency partnered to develop an online calculator that estimates the potential energy and cost savings in major US, Canadian, and Chinese cities from improvements in airtightness. The calculator estimates the energy and cost savings potential based on the pre and post retrofit air leakage rates for prototype commercial buildings. This report explores extending these savings to determine the national level energy savings potential based on the weightage of commercial building type in different ASHRAE climate zone locations. The base infiltration rate of 1.07 CFM/ft2 was assumed for these calculations and the savings were calculated for three different air infiltration target rates of 0.4 CFM/ft2, 0.25 CFM/ft2, and 0.06 CFM/ft2. The national source energy savings of 238, 283, and 313 TBtu respectively were estimated for these target air infiltration rates.

Bhandari, Mahabir↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of RF high power sources for 1MW – range, 10 MeV CW industrial accelerator.

Cobalt-60 is the dominant source of ionizing radiation for sterilizing products in the $200B/year medical device industry. Security and accessibility concerns around this radioactive material - sourced from countries including Russia and China - present national security and economic risks. There is a continued national urgency to replace such high-risk sources with low-risk alternatives such as electron or x-ray beams driven by accelerators. While e-beam sources have been in use for many years, they still represent a small portion of the market. X-ray sources are becoming economical alternatives. Meeting the processing capacity required to replace Co-60 requires a step-change in the capability, efficiency, and overall operating cost of electron accelerators to make adoption feasible. The radiofrequency (RF) power that drives accelerating cavities represents significant capital and operating costs for these accelerators. For accelerator-based systems to be a viable alternative for these applications, RF systems must be economical to manufacture, deploy, and operate.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

EVALUATING NUCLEAR SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF THE SPLINTERNET

The internet, which for years has been viewed as a global online commons with standardized protocols but few regulations is, according to some experts, starting to mirror the contentious political and commercial contours of the physical world. Contributing to this is the rise in data breaches, cyber-enabled attacks on critical infrastructure, government surveillance operations, theft of intellectual property, manipulation of electoral processes, and perceived erosion of privacy, all of which are resulting in a growing skepticism that an open internet will naturally serve the best interests of users, communities, countries, and the global economy. In addition, the rapidly emerging and increasingly lucrative power of data has global superpowers scrambling to protect their informational sovereignty as an urgent matter of national security. Underscoring this urgency is the fact that, despite its global reach and cosmopolitan contributor base, internet infrastructure and governance of the World Wide Web remain largely under U.S. corporate auspices, which reinforces the perception of U.S. control. Whether fragmentation is politically, economically, or socially motivated, there appears to be a growing appetite for an internet that is partitioned and controlled at the national level. From “the Great Firewall of China” to the “Halal” internet of Iran, the trend towards a “Splinternet” has courts and governments embarking on what some call a "legal arms race" to impose a maze of national or regional rules, often conflicting, in the digital realm. The paper explores the emerging Splinternet phenomenon, analyses the implications of this trend on nuclear security, and identifies questions that present opportunities for future research.

Internet, Data Security, Cyber Security, Nuclear S↗

DOE OSTI2020

Decentralized Voltage optimization Method for Distribution Networks with Distributed PVs

In order to solve the voltage violations caused by high penetration distributed photovoltaics (PVs), this paper proposes a decentralized voltage optimization method for distribution networks. Through the optimal dispatch of distributed PVs and reactive power resources, it realizes the voltage security and economic operation of distribution systems and facilitates the integration of massive distributed PVs. The proposed method is inspired by the idea of locational marginal price (LMP) and feasible cutting plane. It separates the optimization of boundary bus voltage and power flow in adjacent regions and uses the interaction of boundary variables’ marginal prices to obtain the optimal solution. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method are demonstrated via simulation test on a practical l0kV feeder in China.

Xue, Yaosuo↗

DOE OSTI2020

Safeguards Technical Objectives for Thorium Molten Salt Reactor Fuel Cycles

China, Denmark, France, India, Indonesia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, among others, are exploring commercial thorium fuel cycles for domestic power production and/or international export. For any thorium fuel cycle facilities built and/or operated in a non-nuclear weapon State with a comprehensive safeguards agreement, those facilities and any associated nuclear material would be subject to international nuclear safeguards by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Thorium fuel cycle facilities offered for the application of safeguards under a voluntary offer agreement by a nuclear weapon State would also be subject to safeguards, if selected by the IAEA. Compared to uranium/plutonium fuel cycle facilities, thorium fuel cycle facilities are comparatively diverse from an inspection and accounting perspective, differing greatly in material type, form, and design from uranium/plutonium fuel cycle facilities and also from each other. Of these, the most complex thorium fuel cycles – and therefore likely the most challenging to the implementation of international nuclear safeguards – are those that include thorium molten salt reactors. With thorium fuel cycles approaching near-term commercial deployment timelines, it is imperative that the international nuclear safeguards community begins to think about how to adapt existing international nuclear safeguards concepts and approaches to thorium fuel cycles, as well as mitigate any gaps that may exist. This paper focuses on the development of recommended safeguards technical objectives for efficient and effective application of international nuclear safeguards measures (e.g., containment / surveillance, non-destructive assay, destructive assay, environmental sampling) to thorium molten salt reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Emerging Issues in the Development of Geologic Models for Gas Hydrate Numerical Simulation

The numerical simulation of gas hydrate reservoirs has evolved greatly in recent years. Scientific and industrial drilling programs have acquired detailed characterization data from gas hydrate systems in Alaska, Japan, India, Korea, China, and the Gulf of Mexico. These data provide invaluable calibration points that serve to ground-truth hydrate reservoir modeling efforts.

Boswell, Ray↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Future of Arms Control in a Multilateral and Multi-Domain Environment

The crisis of arms control is obvious and broadly discussed among states, within the world’s expert community and to a lesser extent the media. This crisis has at least three building blocks: Russia continues to violate or undermine key arms control treaties and commitments; China rejects to join the existing arms control architecture; and both countries heavily invest in the modernization of their armed forces, including development of the nuclear arsenals. In the current highly competitive environment, arms control is more difficult to achieve and is likely to accomplish less than what was optimistically anticipated a generation ago. The growing pressure to “save arms control at all cost”, often expressed by the Western expert community, further complicates the situation. The excessively aspirational and ideological approach to arms control – in which arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation (ADN) become a silver bullet solution – is as dangerous as security and defence policies which entirely exclude ADN. As James Cameron rightly points out, “history should teach policy-makers to look beyond formulae for strategic stability to other ways in which arms control can help to contain disruptive challenges to the balance of power and minimize the chances of war”.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advanced Manufacturing of Alpha Double Prime Iron Nitride (ADPIN): An Innovative Rare Earth Element (REE) Free Ultra-High Performance Permanent Magnet for Clean Energy Applications

Iron nitride magnets offer the potential for large magnetic remanence magnets absent any rare earth materials [1]. This project was submitted in response to the funding opportunity announcement (FOA) from the Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) of the Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE) of the Department of Energy (DOE): DE-FOA-0001465: Advanced Manufacturing Projects for Emerging Research Exploration; Topic Area 1: Advanced Materials; Subtopic 1.1: Innovative Advanced Materials Manufacturing for Clean Energy to explore nitriding iron powder using a fluidized bed technique which if successful would accomplish nitriding the iron powder with reduce industrial energy intensity. Of particular concern when using metal powders at high temperatures in a fluidized bed reactor is the defluidization temperature of the bed, also known as the ‘bed collapse’ temperature. Above the defluidization temperature the metal powders can no longer fluidize and instead become an undesirable packed powder bed. Using the published results from the Institute of Process Engineering at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, China, FeNix Magnetics was able to develop a spreadsheet calculation that allowed predictive guidelines for the defluidization temperature of iron powder based on the type of carrier gas, flow rate of the carrier gas, and the iron powder diameter. FeNix Magnetics was not able to conclude whether the temperatures to avoid bed defluidization that were achievable in a fluidized bed reactor actually resulted in nitriding the iron powder to the required level. In order to measure the amount of nitrogen in the iron powder, FeNix Magnetics contracted with the DOE sponsored Advanced Photon Source (APS) at Argonne National Laboratory to conduct X-Ray diffraction measurements. Unfortunately, due to COVID-19 restrictions, the DOE sponsored APS was closed and unable to provide X-Ray Diffraction measurements during this program.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗