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At least 829 records · Page 46

You Can Run, But You Can't Hide Juniper Pollen Phenology and Dispersal

Pollen can be transported great distances. Van de Water et. al., 2003 reported Juniperus spp. pollen was transported 200-600 km. Hence local observations of plant phenology may not be consistent with the timing and source of pollen collected by pollen sampling instruments. The DREAM (Dust REgional Atmospheric Model, Nickovic et al. 2001) is a verified model for atmospheric dust transport modeling using MODIS data products to identify source regions and quantities of dust. We are modified the DREAM model to incorporate pollen transport. Pollen release is estimated based on MODIS derived phenology of Juniperus spp. communities. Ground based observational records of pollen release timing and quantities are used as verification. This information will be used to support the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Environmental Public Health Tracking Program and the State of New Mexico environmental public health decision support for asthma and allergies alerts.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

Atmospheric Turbulence Modeling for Aerospace Vehicles: Fractional Order Fit

An improved model for simulating atmospheric disturbances is disclosed. A scale Kolmogorov spectral may be scaled to convert the Kolmogorov spectral into a finite energy von Karman spectral and a fractional order pole-zero transfer function (TF) may be derived from the von Karman spectral. Fractional order atmospheric turbulence may be approximated with an integer order pole-zero TF fit, and the approximation may be stored in memory.

Kopasakis, George↗

FUSE Observations of Galactic and LMC Novae in Outburst

This document is a collection of five abstracts from papers written on the 'FUSE Observations of Galactic and LMC Novae in Outburst'. The titles are the following: (1) Analyzing FUSE Observations of Galactic and LMC Novae; (2) Detailed NLTE Model Atmospheres for Novae during Outburst: Modeling Optical and Ultraviolet Observations for Nova LMC 1988; (3) Numerical Solution of the Expanding Stellar Atmosphere Problem; (4) A Non-LTE Line-Blanketed Expanding Atmosphere Model for A-supergiant Alpha Cygni; and (5) Non-LTE Model Atmosphere Analysis of the Early Ultraviolet Spectra of Nova Andromedae 1986. A list of journal publications is also included.

Huschildt, P. H.↗

Atmospheric drag model calibrations for spacecraft lifetime prediction

Although solar activity prediction uncertainty normally dominates decay prediction error budget for near-Earth spacecraft, the effect of drag force modeling errors for given levels of solar activity needs to be considered. Two atmospheric density models, the modified Harris-Priester model and the Jacchia-Roberts model, to reproduce the decay histories of the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft in the 490- to 540-kilometer altitude range were analyzed. Historical solar activity data were used in the input to the density computations. For each spacecraft and atmospheric model, a drag scaling adjustment factor was determined for a high-solar-activity year, such that the observed annual decay in the mean semimajor axis was reproduced by an averaged variation-of-parameters (VOP) orbit propagation. The SME (SMM) calibration was performed using calendar year 1983 (1982). The resulting calibration factors differ by 20 to 40 percent from the predictions of the prelaunch ballistic coefficients. The orbit propagations for each spacecraft were extended to the middle of 1988 using the calibrated drag models. For the Jaccia-Roberts density model, the observed decay in the mean semimajor axis of SME (SMM) over the 4.5-year (5.5-year) predictive period was reproduced to within 1.5 (4.4) percent. The corresponding figure for the Harris-Priester model was 8.6 (20.6) percent. Detailed results and conclusions regarding the importance of accurate drag force modeling for lifetime predictions are presented.

Binebrink, A. L.↗

(abstract) Atmospheric Transmission Model Through Autonomous Visibility Measurement

Performance of deep space optical communications is impacted by atmospheric outages. By monitoring known stellar objects with calibrated telescopes, atmospheric attenuation statistics can be recorded. This paper describes a program to develop an atmospheric transmission model for optical communications by making automous visibility measurements of known stellar objects from three locations in the southwestern US. The data will be correlated and infused with weather data to establish the atmospheric transmission model. This model will be sent in link margin analysis for optical communications channels. The statistics will be updated on a quarterly basis and calibrated using data taken over a long period of time. This calibration is expected to allow extrapolation to other ground-based locations through use of global weather databases.

attenuation model↗

Predicting secondary organic aerosol phase state and viscosity and its effect on multiphase chemistry in a regional-scale air quality model

Atmospheric aerosols are a significant public health hazard and have substantial impacts on the climate. Secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) have been shown to phase separate into a highly viscous organic outer layer surrounding an aqueous core. This phase separation can decrease the partitioning of semi-volatile and low-volatile species to the organic phase and alter the extent of acid-catalyzed reactions in the aqueous core. A new algorithm that can determine SOA phase separation based on their glass transition temperature (T g ), oxygen to carbon (O:C) ratio and organic mass to sulfate ratio, and meteorological conditions was implemented into the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling (CMAQ) system version 5.2.1 and was used to simulate the conditions in the continental United States for the summer of 2013. SOA formed at the ground/surface level was predicted to be phase separated with core–shell morphology, i.e., aqueous inorganic core surrounded by organic coating 65.4 % of the time during the 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) on average in the isoprene-rich southeastern United States. Our estimate is in proximity to the previously reported ~70 % in literature. The phase states of organic coatings switched between semi-solid and liquid states, depending on the environmental conditions. The semi-solid shell occurring with lower aerosol liquid water content (western United States and at higher altitudes) has a viscosity that was predicted to be 10 2 –10 12 Pa s, which resulted in organic mass being decreased due to diffusion limitation. Organic aerosol was primarily liquid where aerosol liquid water was dominant (eastern United States and at the surface), with a viscosity <10 2 Pa s. Phase separation while in a liquid phase state, i.e., liquid–liquid phase separation (LLPS), also reduces reactive uptake rates relative to homogeneous internally mixed liquid morphology but was lower than aerosols with a thick viscous organic shell. The sensitivity cases performed with different phase-separation parameterization and dissolution rate of isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX) into the particle phase in CMAQ can have varying impact on fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) organic mass, in terms of bias and error compared to field data collected during the 2013 SOAS. This highlights the need to better constrain the parameters that govern phase state and morphology of SOA, as well as expand mechanistic representation of multiphase chemistry for non-IEPOX SOA formation in models aided by novel experimental insights.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Atmospheric Rivers: A Modeling Perspective

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a crucial role in the poleward transport of water vapor, and the AR-associated precipitation is a critical component of global water supplies, making it critical that we understand how ARs may change in the future. To approach this issue, integrations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model ModelE version 2.1 (GISSE2.1) are employed. Multiple configurations of the model simulating different climates are analyzed: (1) the last-glacial maximum; (2) present day; (3) the end of the 21st century. The thermodynamic and dynamic components of changes to AR frequency are analyzed using a decomposition method. This method utilizes differences in distinct AR seasonal climatology frequencies derived from various vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) thresholds to resolve AR frequency into its components. Global mean state changes in poleward AR frequency for different climates are dominated by precipitable water vapor (PWV) changes. A set of idealized cold and warm climates in which present day sea surface temperatures are uniformly changed are considered for a targeted analysis of the south Pacific Ocean basin. For this analysis, frequency and distribution of AR events in the model runs are analyzed by comparing them to changes in the jet stream as well as the Eulerian storm tracks and low-level baroclinicity. Latitudinal shifts in the ARs in the south Pacific Ocean basin using our integrations are not as tightly coupled to these two storm-related climatological metrics in the midlatitudes but fare better on the poleward side of the storm tracks.

Atmospheric rivers↗

Using ARM Observations to Evaluate Climate Model Simulations of Land-Atmosphere Coupling on the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Several independent measurements of warm-season soil moisture and surface atmospheric variables recorded at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) research facility are used to estimate the terrestrial component of land-atmosphere coupling (LAC) strength and its regional uncertainty. The observations reveal substantial variation in coupling strength, as estimated from three soil moisture measurements at a single site, as well as across six other sites having varied soil and land cover types. The observational estimates then serve as references for evaluating SGP terrestrial coupling strength in the Community Atmospheric Model coupled to the Community Land Model. These coupled model components are operated in both a free-running mode and in a controlled configuration, where the atmospheric and land states are reinitialized daily, so that they do not drift very far from observations. Although the controlled simulation deviates less from the observed surface climate than its free-running counterpart, the terrestrial LAC in both configurations is much stronger and displays less spatial variability than the SGP observational estimates. Preliminary investigation of vegetation leaf area index (LAI) substituted for soil moisture suggests that the overly strong coupling between model soil moisture and surface atmospheric variables is associated with too much evaporation from bare ground and too little from the vegetation cover. Lastly, these results imply that model surface characteristics such as LAI, as well as the physical parameterizations involved in the coupling of the land and atmospheric components, are likely to be important sources of the problematical LAC behaviors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL RADIATIVE TRANSFER TO ANALYZE HANLE EFFECT IN Ca II K LINE AT 3933 A

Radiative transfer (RT) studies of the linearly polarized spectrum of the Sun (the second solar spectrum) have generally focused on line formation, with an aim to understand the vertical structure of the solar atmosphere using one-dimensional (1D) model atmospheres. Modeling spatial structuring in the observations of the linearly polarized line profiles requires the solution of multi-dimensional (multi-D) polarized RT equation and a model solar atmosphere obtained by magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) simulations of the solar atmosphere. Our aim in this paper is to analyze the chromospheric resonance line Ca II K at 3933 A using multi-D polarized RT with the Hanle effect and partial frequency redistribution (PRD) in line scattering. We use an atmosphere that is constructed by a two-dimensional snapshot of the three-dimensional MHD simulations of the solar photosphere, combined with columns of a 1D atmosphere in the chromosphere. This paper represents the first application of polarized multi-D RT to explore the chromospheric lines using multi-D MHD atmospheres, with PRD as the line scattering mechanism. We find that the horizontal inhomogeneities caused by MHD in the lower layers of the atmosphere are responsible for strong spatial inhomogeneities in the wings of the linear polarization profiles, while the use of horizontally homogeneous chromosphere (FALC) produces spatially homogeneous linear polarization in the line core. The introduction of different magnetic field configurations modifies the line core polarization through the Hanle effect and can cause spatial inhomogeneities in the line core. A comparison of our theoretical profiles with the observations of this line shows that the MHD structuring in the photosphere is sufficient to reproduce the line wings and in the line core, but only line center polarization can be reproduced using the Hanle effect. For a simultaneous modeling of the line wings and the line core (including the line center), MHD atmospheres with inhomogeneities in the chromosphere are required.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Numerical Modeling of the Atmosphere

Numerical models and numerical analyses of observations were used to improve the understanding of the physical processes important in global weather and climate. Results from a study of the effect of baroclinic waves on mid-latitude vertical temperature structure show that the waves' vertical eddy heat flux tend to eliminate the potential vorticity gradient near the steering level by causing the static stability to decrease rapidly with height in the lower troposphere above the boundary layer. An empirical study of the relationship between eddy heat fluxes and the meridional temperature gradient has been completed. The results indicate that the feedback in the flux-gradient system is comparable to dissipation on all time scales between the synoptic and the seasonal. The definition of the Eliassen-Palm flux and the Eliassen-Palm and non-acceleration theorems has been generalized to include eddy forcing of condensation. Calculations based on the generalized diagnostics showed that the annual mean eddy forcing of the zonal mean zonal wind is two and one half times stronger when the condensation effects are included.

Stone, P. H.↗

Retrieval of Surface Directional Reflectance Properties Using Ground Level Multiangle Measurements

Knowledge of the directional reflectance properties of natural surfaces such as soils and vegetation canopies is essential for classification studies and canopy model inversion. Atmospheric correction schemes, using various levels of approximation, are described to retrieve surface bidirectional reflectance factors (BRFs) and directional-hemispherical reftectances (albedos)from multiangle radiance measurements taken at ground level. The retrieval schemes are tested on simulated data incorporating realistic surface BRFs and atmospheric models containing aerosols. Sensitivity of the atmospherically corrected BRFs and associated directional-hemispherical reflectances to various aerosol properties and the sun-view geometry is illustrated. A measurement strategy for obtaining highly accurate surface reflectance properties also is examined in the context of instrument radiametric calibration, knowledge of the atmospheric properties, and sun-view angular coverage.

Martonchik, John V.↗

Machine Learning Emulation of Spatial Deposition from a Multi-Physics Ensemble of Weather and Atmospheric Transport Models

In the event of an accidental or intentional hazardous material release in the atmosphere, researchers often run physics-based atmospheric transport and dispersion models to predict the extent and variation of the contaminant spread. These predictions are imperfect due to propagated uncertainty from atmospheric model physics (or parameterizations) and weather data initial conditions. Ensembles of simulations can be used to estimate uncertainty, but running large ensembles is often very time consuming and resource intensive, even using large supercomputers. In this paper, we present a machine-learning-based method which can be used to quickly emulate spatial deposition patterns from a multi-physics ensemble of dispersion simulations. We use a hybrid linear and logistic regression method that can predict deposition in more than 100,000 grid cells with as few as fifty training examples. Logistic regression provides probabilistic predictions of the presence or absence of hazardous materials, while linear regression predicts the quantity of hazardous materials. The coefficients of the linear regressions also open avenues of exploration regarding interpretability—the presented model can be used to find which physics schemes are most important over different spatial areas. A single regression prediction is on the order of 10,000 times faster than running a weather and dispersion simulation. However, considering the number of weather and dispersion simulations needed to train the regressions, the speed-up achieved when considering the whole ensemble is about 24 times. Ultimately, this work will allow atmospheric researchers to produce potential contamination scenarios with uncertainty estimates faster than previously possible, aiding public servants and first responders.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Accretion disk modeling of AGN continuum using non-LTE stellar atmospheres

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) accretion disk spectra were calculated using non-LTE stellar atmosphere models for Kerr and Schwarzschild geometries. It is found that the Lyman limit absorption edge, probably the most conclusive observational evidence for the accretion disk, would be drastically distorted and displaced by the relativistic effects from the large gravitational field of the central black hole and strong Doppler motion of emitting material on the disk surface. These effects are especially pronounced in the Kerr geometry. The strength of the Lyman limit absorption is very sensitive to the surface gravity in the stellar atmosphere models used. For models at the same temperature but different surface gravities, the strength of the Lyman edge exhibits an almost exponential decrease as the surface gravity approach the Eddington limit, which should approximate the thin disk atmosphere. The relativistic effects as well as the vanishing of the Lyman edge at the Eddington gravity may be the reasons that not many Lyman edges in the rest frames of AGNs and quasars are found.

Sun, Wei-Hsin↗

Characterizing 51 Eri b from 1 to 5 μm: A Partly Cloudy Exoplanet

We present spectrophotometry spanning 1–5 μm of 51 Eridani b, a 2–10 M{sub Jup} planet discovered by the Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey. In this study, we present new K1 (1.90–2.19 μm) and K2 (2.10–2.40 μm) spectra taken with the Gemini Planet Imager as well as an updated L {sub P} (3.76 μm) and new M {sub S} (4.67 μm) photometry from the NIRC2 Narrow camera. The new data were combined with J (1.13–1.35 μm) and H (1.50–1.80 μm) spectra from the discovery epoch with the goal of better characterizing the planet properties. The 51 Eri b photometry is redder than field brown dwarfs as well as known young T-dwarfs with similar spectral type (between T4 and T8), and we propose that 51 Eri b might be in the process of undergoing the transition from L-type to T-type. We used two complementary atmosphere model grids including either deep iron/silicate clouds or sulfide/salt clouds in the photosphere, spanning a range of cloud properties, including fully cloudy, cloud-free, and patchy/intermediate-opacity clouds. The model fits suggest that 51 Eri b has an effective temperature ranging between 605 and 737 K, a solar metallicity, and a surface gravity of log(g) = 3.5–4.0 dex, and the atmosphere requires a patchy cloud atmosphere to model the spectral energy distribution (SED). From the model atmospheres, we infer a luminosity for the planet of −5.83 to −5.93 (logL/L{sub ⊙}), leaving 51 Eri b in the unique position of being one of the only directly imaged planets consistent with having formed via a cold-start scenario. Comparisons of the planet SED against warm-start models indicate that the planet luminosity is best reproduced by a planet formed via core accretion with a core mass between 15 and 127 M{sub ⊕}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Initial overview, description, and assessment of the DELFIC atmospheric transport model

We present an overview and description of the atmospheric transport model (ATM) component of the Defense Land Fallout Interpretative Code (DELFIC) and its revision history. In particular, we discuss the hybrid Eulerian-Lagrangian model of the DELFIC diffusive transport module (DTM), its assumptions and constraints, and assess its capability for modeling the transport, dispersion, and deposition of nuclear fallout debris. This hybrid model is an efficient transport model for the wide range of particle sizes found in nuclear fallout debris. Furthermore, we validate the 1979 version of DELFIC using the 1979 test case input and output presented in its documentation. Except for some rounding differences and exposure rate differences from the OPM, the DTM output is in very good agreement with the 1979 results. Overall, the DELFIC DTM provides a reasonable and rapid approximation to the transport and deposition of local nuclear fallout debris.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗