Nuclear Criticality Safety for the LANL Mission [Slides]
This report contains recruitment slides for use at University of New Mexico with an emphasis on nuclear criticality safety analysts.
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
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New Predictive Capabilities for Nuclear Weapons in Composite Fires
The prevalence of flammable carbon-based composite airframe materials and their use in high-temperature nuclear weapon re-entry systems requires analysts to address the abnormal thermal environment hazards associated with composite material fires. These fires tend to burn very differently than conventional fuel fires, usually burning less intensely, but much longer. This could lead to challenges in understanding margins in classic safety themes. The technical challenges in modeling the phenomena associated with these new types of fires are considerable, but new models have been developed. Their predictions have been compared with well-documented measurements of a vertical porous burner fire, known as a "wall fire" (a "wall-fire" validation simulation is reflected in the figures below). These measurements were conducted at FMGlobal, a mutual insurance company with a strong fire risk management program, as part of an ongoing collaboration between Sandia and FMGlobal. To date, the "wall-fire" scenario has been set up and initial model assessments with grid refinement studies have been conducted focusing on mesh resolutions suitable for full weapon system simulations. This work will continue with further verification and validation tasks assessing the predictions of the new model. Future work will address specific aspects of the wall models that are lacking in their predictive ability.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Extent-of-Condition Review of Electrical Events Fiscal Year 2019
Sandia National Laboratories has experienced a number of electrical events in recent years. A careful examination of data shows that for the third year in a row, two of the three most frequently categorized Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS)-reportable event types were unexpected or unintended personal contact with a hazardous energy source and a failure to follow a prescribed hazardous energy control process, as defined in the occurrence reporting criteria of DOE Order 232.2A, Occurrence Reporting and Processing of Operations Information, 2D(1) and 2D(2). Sandia policy CA001.2, Identify and Manage Issues, requires an extent-of-condition review for any high-level reportable occurrence, and the analysts were tasked to perform this EOC in light of high-level reportable occurrence NA-SS-SNL-1000-2019- 0007, Contact with Electrical Energy During Marx Capacitor Troubleshooting. This extent of condition not only evaluated the 10 reportable electrical occurrences for Fiscal Year 2019, but also looked at 11 other related events: those involving control of hazardous energy and electrical events associated with less than hazardous energy.1 This Extent-of-Condition report makes several observations, conclusions, and recommendations for improvement.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
SIERRA Code Coupling Module: Arpeggio User Manual - Version 4.56
The SNL Sierra Mechanics code suite is designed to enable simulation of complex multiphysics scenarios. The code suite is composed of several specialized applications which can operate either in standalone mode or coupled with each other. Arpeggio is a supported utility that enables loose coupling of the various Sierra Mechanics applications by providing access to Framework services that facilitate the coupling. More importantly Arpeggio orchestrates the execution of applications that participate in the coupling. This document describes the various components of Arpeggio and their operability. The intent of the document is to provide a fast path for analysts interested in coupled applications via simple examples of its usage.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Operationally-Relevant Cyber Situational Awareness Tool Development.
Research was undertaken to gain an understanding of the interplay between cyber security professionals and the software tools utilized in performing their jobs. Substantial investments are devoted to purchasing and developing software tools targeting cyber security operations. However, development is largely based on anecdotal knowledge concerning the work processes, cognitive demands, and the needs and requirements of cyber security analysts. The current study first characterized the workflow of a Cyber Security Incidence Response (CSIRT) team, including their use of software tools, and instantiated this workflow within a simulation model. Next, data was collected during cyber security training exercises reflecting the use of software tools. It was discovered that while cyber security professionals rely heavily on specialized software tools, their jobs require that they effectively integrate the use of specialized software tools with the use of general- purpose software tools.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals
This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
3D Crustal Tomography Model of Utah
The ability to accurately locate seismic events is necessary for treaty monitoring. When using techniques that rely on the comparison of observed and predicted travel times to obtain these locations, it is important that the estimated travel times and their estimated uncertainties are also accurate. The methodology of Ballard et al. (2016a) has been used in the past to generate an accurate 3D tomographic global model of compressional wave slowness (the SAndia LoS Alamos 3D tomography model, i.e. SALSA3D). To re-establish functionality and to broaden the capabilities of the method to local distances, we have applied the methodology of Ballard et al. (2016a) to local data in Utah. This report details the results of the initial model generated, including relocations performed using analyst picked mining events at West Ridge Mine and three ground-truth events at Bingham Mine. We were successfully able to generate a feasible tomography model that resulted in reasonable relocations of the mining events.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Analysis of Space-Conditioning Loads in Commercial Buildings
Space conditioning end-uses, which include heating, cooling, and ventilation, represent a significant fraction of commercial building energy use, with a wide variety of heating and cooling technology options available in the market. In the interest of improving the overall efficiency of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) technologies, governments, utilities and private sector entities have implemented a variety of market transformation policies that aim to influence consumer purchase decisions. To evaluate the costs and benefits of such programs, analysts typically postulate a hypothetical default equipment choice, and compare it to one that provides comparable service with lower energy and/or power use. The corresponding reduced operating cost provides a benefit that offsets the potential higher cost of improved efficiency. Typically, life-cycle cost or cash-flow analyses are used to quantify the net economic benefit. These analyses require the capability to assess how a given equipment design would perform across a broad range of characteristics, both of the building and of the local weather. While these assessments can be performed using customized building simulations, it is generally not practical to develop and validate detailed building simulation code to cover all the potential variations of equipment design and installation. An alternative, and somewhat simpler, approach is to solely use detailed building simulations to generate time series of heating and cooling loads in commercial buildings. These loads can then be used as input to more detailed, stand-alone engineering models that simulate HVAC system performance under different equipment designs. This approach was used to evaluate a range of high-efficiency commercial packaged air conditioner design options for the Department of Energy’s Appliance and Equipment Standards Program (DOE-EERE 2015). While there may be some loss of precision relative to full simulation, the accuracy of this approach is sufficient for practical applications of cost-benefit analysis. This report describes the development of a database of commercial building heating and cooling loads, generated using the EnergyPlus software package, a whole building energy use model supported by the Department of Energy (DOE-EERE 2020a). EnergyPlus takes as input a set of configuration files that describe the building itself (size, zoning, envelope characteristics, etc.) and the various systems within it (HVAC, lighting, water heating, etc.). This analysis uses a publicly available collection of commercial reference buildings (CRB), comprised of sixteen building types and three vintages (DOE-EERE 2020b; Deru et al 2011). Each building is simulated in eighteen different locations, covering a wide range of climatic conditions. The prototype building description files assign the type of HVAC equipment used, and capacities across climate zones.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
A User’s Guide to the PLTEMP/ANL Code
PLTEMP/ANL V4.3 is a program that obtains a steady-state flow and temperature solution for a nuclear reactor core, or for a single fuel assembly. It is based on an evolutionary sequence of codes originally used for plate temperatures, hence “PLTEMP”, developed at Argonne National Laboratory over several decades. Fueled and non-fueled regions are modeled. Each fuel assembly consists of one or more plates or tubes separated by coolant channels. The fuel plates may have one to five layers of different materials, each with heat generation. The width of a fuel plate may be divided into multiple longitudinal stripes, each with its own axial power shape. Depending upon the heat transfer method selected, the temperature solution is effectively 2-dimensional or 3-dimensional (Appendix XV). It begins with a solution across all coolant channels and fuel plates or tubes within a given fuel assembly, at the entrance to the assembly. The temperature solution is repeated for each axial node along the length of the fuel assembly. The geometry may be either slab or radial, corresponding to fuel assemblies made of a series of flat (or slightly curved) plates, or of nested tubes. A variety of thermal-hydraulic correlations are available to determine safety margins such as onset-of-nucleate boiling ratio(ONBR), departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR), and onset of flow instability ratio (OFIR). Coolant properties for either light or heavy water are obtained from FORTRAN functions rather than from tables. The code is intended for thermal-hydraulic analysis of research reactor performance in the sub-cooled boiling regime. Both turbulent and laminar flow regimes can be modeled. Options to calculate both forced flow and natural circulation are available. A general search capability is available (Appendix XII) to greatly reduce the reactor analyst’s time.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Verification and Validation of the PLTEMP/ANL Code for Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis of Experimental and Test Reactors
The document compiles in a single volume the verification and validation works done for the PLTEMP/ANL code during the years of its development and improvement. The verification of sixteen capabilities of the PLTEMP/ANL Version 4.3 code that were identified by research reactor analysts as frequently used in their thermal-hydraulic analysis are described and documented. Each chapter of the document deals with the verification or validation of a specific model. The model verification is usually done by comparing the code with hand calculation, Microsoft spreadsheet calculation, or Mathematica calculation. The model validation is done by comparing the code with experimental data or a widely tested code like the RELAP5 code. In addition, some PLTEMP/ANL verification works that are available in the open literature are simply referenced and not included in the document. PLTEMP/ANL has been used in conversion safety analysis reports of several US and foreign research reactors that have been licensed and converted. A list of such reactors is given.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Measurement Uncertainty in One-Of-A-Kind Event Data Analysis
A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable, have unavoidable built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates over the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on built-in differences in physics of the experiment. Stochastic physical processes result typically in a broader range of true values than non-stochastic processes do. Measurement uncertainty depends on a measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). Modern measurement methods, including digital ones, frequently make the measurement uncertainty very small. When data from one–of –a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It provides no information about the range of true experimental values, neither about reliability of a reported data point. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable. Methods for data analysis from an experiment repeated statistically significant number of times are very well developed. They do not require a detailed expertise in physics of an experiment, nor in the properties of the measurement system used, and meaning of the reported uncertainty is well understood in any scientific community. It all changes when data from one-of-a-kind experiment is analyzed. Analyst’s expertise is required both in the physics of the experiment and in all aspects of the measurement system, all possible malfunctions. Data users must remember that only measurement uncertainty is reported from any one-of-a-kind experiment. Theory with simulations may provide estimation of expected built-in differences in the experiment, and by this of expected range of true values for a given experiment; yet measurement uncertainty can never be used in place of the range of true experimental values.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Side Channel Considerations for SHA-512
We consider a theoretical side-channel attack on SHA-512; the attack should easily generalize to other algorithms in the SHA-2 family. Rather than looking at a side-channel attack on an HMAC, which has been done in various papers, we assume that the targeted device is applying the hash function as a pseudo-random function (prf) in order to generate a secret key from a secret seed, as recommended by NIST. The analyst uses side-channel information to try to recover the secret seed. We use entropy/information theory to show how one might judge whether or not a side-channel attack might be possible and/or feasible, and we show how the design of the implementation can affect the feasibility of an attack.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Ultra High Performance Liquid Chromatography with Quadrupole Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry and Fisher Ratio Analysis for Discovery-Based Analysis
The ability to discover minute differences between samples or sample classes for ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography coupled to quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UHPLC-QTOF) can be a challenging endeavor especially when these differences are not known a priori. Indeed a typical UHPLC-QTOF analysis time of ~15 minutes can generate over 4 gigabytes of information for a single sample. Implementation of chemometrics such as Fisher ratio (F-ratio) analysis will allow the analyst to quickly and precise probe the chemical differences between different samples or sample classes. F-ratio analysis can be used to find sample or sample class distinguishing compounds reducing the 5 gigabytes of information into a simple, yet informative hit list. Moreover through combinatorial rearrangement, it is possible to determine a F-ratio threshold to separate the real and non-real hits. The F-ratio software presented herein is a semi-automated algorithm that processes the raw, exported .csv files from the SCIEX 500R QTOF in as little as 30 seconds. While further research is needed to modify and perfect the software to deal with high resolution mass spectra precise to 0.0001 Daltons, the current software, precise to 0.1 Da, is able to find significant chemical differences despite some of them being at extremely low concentrations nearing the limit of detection.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Inertia and the Power Grid: A Guide Without the Spin
This guide provides an overview of inertia’s role in the evolving power system. It describes the sources of inertia in the grid, the intrinsic interplay of inertia and other grid services, the factors that impact the amount of and need for inertia, and the changes that can be made to maintain reliability as it declines. The guide is intended for nontechnical audiences. And it introduces accessible examples to illustrate the concepts of inertia and other grid services that are required to maintain system frequency, which is a key indicator of health in the current grid. The guide also discusses alternatives to traditional inertia and provides several takeaways that may be informative to power system decision makers, planners, operators, analysts, and other stakeholders.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Annual Technology Baseline: The 2020 Transportation Update
Consistent cost and performance data for various transportation technologies can be difficult to find and may change frequently for certain technologies. With the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory annually provides an organized and centralized set of such cost and performance data. The ATB uses the best information from the Department of Energy national laboratories' transportation analysts. The ATB has been reviewed by experts and it includes powertrains such as gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell, as well as fuels such as gasoline, ethanol, diesel, biodiesel, natural gas, electricity, and hydrogen.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Comparison Study of Upper Subcritical Limits Derived Using Sensitivity/Uncertainty Tools Case Studies of Benchmarks and Applications
Neutron transport methods used to establish subcriticality require validation by comparison to critical experiments considered to be benchmarks. Whisper is a sensitivity/uncertainty analysis tool developed to assist with the task of validation in nuclear criticality safety. Details on the Whisper methodology can be found in References 1-3 on the MCNP ® reference collection website at https://mcnp.lanl.gov. Whisper-1.0 was originally developed in 2014 and used to assist with nuclear criticality safety validation at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Whisper was upgraded in 2016 to Whisper-1.1 and prepared for release with MCNP6.2. Whisper contains a library of over 1100 critical experiment benchmarks and quantifies neutronic similarity of an application to benchmarks in the library. Using highest similarity benchmarks, Whisper computes a calculational margin (CM) encompassing of the worst-case bias and bias uncertainty at a 99% confidence level for each application. In addition, portions of the margin of subcriticality (MOS) for nuclear data uncertainty and potential code errors are computed. The baseline upper subcritical limit (USL) computed by Whisper is comprised of the CM, MOS nuclear data , and MOS code errors . The Whisper baseline USL is absent a portion of the MOS due to the area of application, which is applied based upon judgment by the criticality safety analyst. An objective of this paper is to present the baseline USL, CM and portions of the MOS as computed by Whisper for comparison with similar sensitivity/uncertainty tools, such as those used by IRSN and ORNL. The initial comparison involves four critical experiment benchmarks: HEU-MET-FAST-013-001, HEU-SOLTHERM-001-008, PU-MET-FAST-022-001, AND PU-SOL-THERM-001-001, which have been: 1. modeled independently by LANL, IRSN, and ORNL based upon information provided in the ICSBEP Handbook, 2. are common in S/U libraries for LANL, IRSN, and ORNL, 3. span a range of energy spectrum and fissile material, and 4. taken as applications for the purposes of this study and therefore excluded from use as a benchmark for calculating the upper subcritical limit. Results presented in this paper have been computed using covariance data for all isotopes in ENDF/BVII.0 using a 44-group energy structure. Benchmarks in the Whisper library were run in MCNP6.2 using 100,000 neutrons per cycle, skipping 100 cycles for 500 active cycles. Reference 10 also compares the results for baseline USL with an order of magnitude greater neutrons, using the same total number of cycles with 1,000,000 neutrons per cycle. Subsequent to the results presented in Reference 10 changes were made to the benchmark library, as discussed in Reference 11. Newer results using the revised benchmark library are presented herein.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
How To Manual - 4.56
The "how to" document is designed to help walk the analyst through difficult aspects of software usage. It should supplement both the User's manual and the Theory document, by providing examples and detailed discussion that reduce learning time for complex set ups. These documents are intended to be used together. We will not formally list all parameters for an input here — see the User's manual for this. All the examples in the "How To" document are part of the Sierra/SD test suite, and each will run with no modification. The nature of this document casts together a number of rather unrelated procedures. Grouping them is difficult. Please try to use the table of contents and the index as a guide in finding the analyses of interest.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Offshore Wind Technology Data Update (2019) [Slides]
The 2019 Offshore Wind Technology Data Update compiles information from peer-reviewed literature, market reports, press releases, industry news reports, manufacturer specification sheets, and offshore wind project announcements to provide a comprehensive snapshot of the state of the global wind industry in 2019. These data, including capacity projections, project characteristics, technology trends, and cost estimates, are categorized, tabulated, and plotted to provide easily recognizable and understandable summaries. A particular focus is given to the United States offshore wind project pipeline, including project announcements, state procurements, deployment timelines, infrastructure investments, grid interconnections, and other related developments. The update is intended to be used as a reference document by researchers, analysts, industry practitioners, and government officials.
17 WIND ENERGY↗