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DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A framework to implement human reliability analysis during early design stages of advanced reactors

Nuclear power plants require human actions throughout their lifecycle from design, construction, operation, and decommissioning. However, for advanced reactors (e.g., Generation IV), the reliance on human intervention in safety-related actions is expected to be reduced or completely replaced by automated actions. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Standard for Advanced Non-LWR Nuclear Power Plants requires that the impacts of all operator actions are captured and incorporated in the risk of the modeled plant. Moreover, the Modernization of Technical Requirements for Licensing Advanced Reactors requires human reliability analysis (HRA) to be included throughout all design and PRA development stages. However, due to the lack of details during the early design stages, HRA is often postponed until the design is mature enough. Conducting HRA in later design stages, though it may be adequate in capturing pre-, at-, and post-initiators comes short of informing the design itself in the iterative design lifecycle. Hence, this paper presents a framework to include HRA during the design's early stages, pre-conceptual or conceptual. The proposed framework provides a process for the removal of operator actions that do not contribute to the risk and the identification of all key operator actions that are critical to the safety of the design. The results of this framework are then used to inform the design of those safety-related operator actions to update the design further. Then, using information from the updated design, this framework can be reapplied to investigate the impact of the design update on human reliability. The PRA model of the X-energy's pre-conceptual Xe-100 high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor (HTGR-PB) design is used to demonstrate the approach. In the pre-conceptual Xe-100 PRA model, also called Phase 0 PRA model, human actions were considered an integral part of analyzing the plant response to different initiating events. Hence, in this paper, all possible human actions in the Xe-100 PRA model are identified, analyzed, and removed to emulate a design relying only on the available automated control systems. The preliminary results of this assessment show how safe the Xe-100 design is even without crediting any human actions. The results also list necessary sequences in which operator actions are critical to the risk profile of the design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Surveillance Test Articles for Materials Degradation Management in MSR Environment

Information on materials degradations during advanced reactor operations is limited Effects of materials degradations during reactor operations are synergistic, involving: Irradiation, corrosion, elevated temperature exposure and stress (creep-fatigue loading) Establishment of surrogate materials surveillance program for the management of materials degradations would be an important pathway in support of the timely licensing of advanced reactors

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of hydrothermal corrosion model and BWR metal coating for CVD SiC in light water reactors

SiC/SiC fiber composites with CVD SiC overcoats are potential candidates for light water reactor advanced accident tolerant cladding materials. Understanding its corrosion kinetics in Light Water Reactor (LWR) conditions is essential to evaluate the concept's viability. Existing models only account for the temperature and oxygen concentration effect on the hydrothermal corrosion behavior applicable to LWR operating conditions. However, the development of a general corrosion rate for CVD SiC that accounts for the impact of irradiated microstructure, flow rate, electrical resistivity, pH, and surface roughness is critical for the practical realization of SiC/SiC-based cladding concepts. After a rigorous experimental campaign, this work updates the existing hydrothermal corrosion model to predict hydrothermal corrosion in LWRs. Numerical radiation and coolant chemistry analysis for LWRs conducted based on the updated corrosion kinetic models suggests that CVD SiC is likely a viable environmental barrier coating for Pressurized Water Reactors while questionable for Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) when the effect of irradiation damage on SiC corrosion is considered. An effective mitigation strategy for the double-layer metal coating is proposed for BWR applications. The double-layer metal coating comprising a FeCrAl overcoat with an intermediate Cr bond coating was observed to provide a stable protective barrier against SiC dissolution in BWR conditions. Finally, the proposed metal coating was also fully adherent following quench and burst tests.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

AGR-5/6/7 Irradiation As Run Predictions Using PARFUME

The PARticle FUel ModEl (PARFUME), a fuel performance modeling code used for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, was used to model the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-5/6/7 irradiation test using as-run physics and thermal data. The AGR-5/6/7 irradiation test consists of the combined fifth, sixth, and seventh planned irradiations of the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The AGR-5/6/7 test train is a multi-capsule, instrumented experiment that is designed for irradiation in the 133.4-mm diameter northeast flux trap position of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory. Each capsule contains compacts filled with uranium oxycarbide unaltered fuel particles. This report documents the calculations performed to predict the failure probability of tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated fuel particles during the AGR-5/6/7 experiment. In addition, this report documents the calculated fission product release fraction from the fuel. The calculations include modeling of the AGR 5/6/7 irradiation that occurred from February 2018 to July 2020 over nine ATR cycles, including six normal cycles and three power axial locator mechanism cycles, for a total of approximately 376 effective full power days (EFPD). The irradiation conditions and material properties of the AGR-5/6/7 test predicted zero fuel particle failures in Capsules 1, 3, and 4. Fuel particle failures were predicted in two of the compacts in Capsule 2 and one particle failure is predicted in each one of the compacts in Capsule 5. All compacts that exhibited fuel particle failures predicted by PARFUME were caused by localized stress concentrations in the silicon carbide (SiC) layer caused by cracking in the inner pyrolytic (IPyC) layer. In addition, shrinkage of the buffer and IPyC layer during irradiation resulted in formation of a buffer-IPyC gap. Compacts with a lower irradiation temperature and fluence experienced the smallest buffer-IPyC gap formation. Conversely, higher irradiated temperature compacts with a high fluence experienced the largest buffer-IPyC gap formation. Compact 3-6-3 experienced the largest buffer IPyC gap formation of just under 21.7 µm. The release fraction of fission products silver (Ag), cesium (Cs), and strontium (Sr) vary depending on capsule location and irradiation temperature. The maximum release fraction of Ag occurs in Capsule 3, reaching up to 59.5% for the TRISO fuel particles (compact 3-6-3). The release fraction of the other two fission products, Cs and Sr, are much smaller. A maximum Cs release fraction of 1.1% occurred in compact 3-4-3 and 4.4% for Sr in compact 3-6-3.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

2026 Annual Molten Salt Reactor Campaign Review

This report documents the 2026 Annual Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) Campaign Review held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, from April 21–24, 2026. The review was organized by Dr. Patricia Paviet, National Technical Director of the Advanced Reactor Technology (ART) MSR program for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), and included participation from principal investigators, federal managers, developers, regulators, and members of the broader MSR community. The 2026 review expanded beyond the ART-MSR campaign to include related DOE-NE programs supporting molten salt reactor advancement, including the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program, Advanced Reactor Safeguards and Security (ARSS), Material Protection, Accounting and Control Technologies (MPACT), and relevant advanced fuels activities. Three days were dedicated to technical presentations and panel discussions covering thermal properties, off-gas management, modeling and simulation, safety and licensing, safeguards and security, materials and corrosion, and irradiation activities. A fourth day was dedicated to technical tours of Sandia National Laboratories and Kairos Power facilities. Attendance was strong and comparable to the prior annual review, with approximately 75 in-person participants per day, 75–80 virtual attendees per day, and approximately 30 participants in the tour day. The review fostered significant technical exchange across national laboratories, universities, industry, regulators, and international participants. This report summarizes the review structure, technical themes, participation, tours, feedback, and conclusions relevant to future planning for the MSR campaign.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

SSR COST – COmposite Structural Technologies for advanced reactor deployment (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Moltex is designing a Generation 4 or Advanced nuclear reactor, the molten salt fast spectrum SSR-W. The design intent is to reduce the cost and complexity of the nuclear systems by relying on inherent safety characteristics, instead of engineered systems. One such characteristic as a natural tendency for power to decrease as temperature increases. Another characteristic that improves natural safety is the fact that the working fluids (molten salts) are at atmospheric pressure at operating temperatures. This significantly reduces the need for pressure boundary components and systems. Moltex is highly motivated to develop simple and economic reactors to reduce the carbon intensity and improve energy security of global electricity production. The COST project investigated the opportunities for reducing construction cost of advanced reactors with the adoption of Rigid Elastic Composite Civil works (RECC). The construction design and methods used in currently operational light water power plants would generally be suboptimal for the SSR-W since there is no requirement for civil structures to withstand high pressure accidents such as hydrogen combustion or steam explosion. In parallel to downselecting the most promising RECC-type technology, accident scenarios representing the largest credible challenge to the SSR-W civil and construction design were modelled. The capability of an SSR-W reactor constructed with and without the selected construction technology was evaluated and the consequential licensing challenges identified. A construction schedule and cost estimate of the SSR-W with and without the selected RECC construction technology was developed. Once the above data was collected, then Moltex was able to review the safety performance, license-ability and cost/schedule benefit of applying the preferred construction technology. The CAPEX/NPV benefit was quantified, and the licensing risks and opportunities were documented. Finally, the CAPEX/NPV benefit of the advanced construction technology was modest due to the suitability of traditional stick-built construction for the SSR-W design. However, previously unidentified benefits of the advanced construction technology were revealed during the studies that could credibly de-risk certain aspects of the design to be licensed. Since licensing (duration and delays) are very significant in new build project costs, the cost benefits may be significant. Further studies on the risk reduction of the construction technology are foreseen.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Species Transport Framework Development in SAM for System-Level Tritium Source Term Analysis

The SAM code is under development as a modern system-level modeling and simulation tool for advanced non–light water reactor safety analyses, with recent efforts to add capabilities to evaluate radiological source term risks in these novel reactor concepts. By leveraging the established system-level multiphysics thermal-hydraulic models in SAM, a framework for tightly coupled species transport modeling has been integrated into the code for engineering-scale source term evaluation. This species transport framework was first applied to the simulation of tritium, which is a well-known source term in conventional light water reactors. Tritium poses a unique risk in salt-cooled reactors, especially those with lithium-bearing salts such as the fluoride salt–cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) concept, as tritium is generated in the salt coolant in significant quantities due to neutron interactions. A compounding factor is the increased mobility of tritium at high temperatures, which is able to permeate through metals while also potentially being retained in graphite pebbles and structures. Engineering-scale models for the tritium transport pathways in a FHR have been developed using the new species transport framework in SAM. The capabilities are assessed through analytical verification problems and validated with data from a graphite retention experiment. In conclusion, the system-level model is demonstrated by performing an initial estimate of baseline tritium generation and flows in a generic reference SAM FHR model, setting a foundation for future studies of source term transient analysis with the potential for further multiscale and multiphysics integration.

SAM↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Informed Analysis for Enhanced Resilient Nuclear Power Plant with Initiatives including ATF, FLEX, and Advanced Battery Technology

This report documents the activities performed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2021 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) Systems research. The purpose of the RISA Pathway research and development is to support plant owner-operator decisions with the aim to improve the economics, reliability, and maintain the high levels of safety of current nuclear power plants over periods of extended plant operations. The concept of ERP refers to the combinations of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), optimal use of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, the incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, the advanced battery technology with extended capacity, as well as improved fuel cycle efficiency. The objective of the ERP research effort is to use the RISA methods and toolkit in industry applications, including methods development and early demonstration of technologies, in order to enhance existing reactors? safety features and to substantially reduce operating costs through risk-informed approaches to plant design modifications to the plant and their characterization. The ERP R&D efforts in FY 2021 are focused on three industry initiatives, including accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), optimal use of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), and advanced battery technology with extended capacity.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technical Challenges and Gaps in Integration of Advanced Sensors, Instrumentation, and Communication Technologies with Digital Twins for Nuclear Application

This paper explores integrating advanced sensor, instrumentation, and communication technologies with digital twin technologies for nuclear energy application. Digital twins and digital-twin-enabling technologies are expected to integrate with future nuclear reactor designs and have the potential to impact currently operating nuclear power plants. Greater digital integration, advanced instrumentation and control systems, and advanced operations and maintenance practices are all associated with digital-twin-enabling technologies. Advanced sensors, instrumentation, and communication technology are expected to comprise important elements of the infrastructure required to develop and operate a nuclear digital twin system. This paper identifies and discusses challenges and gaps in developing and implementing advanced sensors and instrumentation and communication technology to be integrated with a digital twin in current and advanced reactor applications. It is important to address some challenge and gap to enable a successful near-term deploying advanced sensors, instrumentation, and communication technologies integrated with digital twins.

Yadav, Vaibhav↗
DOE OSTI2023

TRISO Fuel Development and Qualification in the US

Presentation of TRISO Fuel Development and Qualification in the US. Including Status of HTGR and TRISO Technology Circa 2000, Advanced Gas Reactor focus on licensing and domestic TRISO fuel fabrication capabilities. Irradiation experiments discussed include AGR-1, AGR-2, AGR-5/6/7, and AGR-3/4. Results, of tests and Kernel and coating behaviors during irradiation, Fission product release from UCO Fuel Compacts, study of failed particles, safety and accident performance summaries, and Parfume modeling and capabilities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated Materials Deployment in Advanced Nuclear Power Plants

The purpose of this report is to begin the development of a maximally efficient process for licensing and deploying new materials in Advanced Non-Light-Water Reactors (ANLWRs). Some new materials that are to be used in some new plants are seen as possibly introducing risks, because our understanding of those new materials’ behavior in the conditions generated by some novel plant designs is less complete than our understanding of the behavior of materials with long use histories in existing designs. In these cases, an approved code/standard or a code case to support the use of these materials in the novel design’s safety case may not exist for the regulator to utilize as part of the licensing determination. This circumstance creates the potential for an extremely long licensing process for new designs using new materials. The present strategy is to show how to manage these risks proactively, in such a way as to permit licensing decisions to be made in a timely manner, based on this risk management process. The present report outlines the gaps in the current codes to support deployment and use of novel materials and begins the development of the necessary risk management framework that is focused on the subject materials issues; it is based on risk-informed in-service surveillance practices, carried out in such a way as to compensate for current limitations in our state of knowledge. This development will enable licensing and deployment of the subject materials, conditional on the proactive surveillance process to be established. While this report is occasioned by limitations in our knowledge of certain materials issues that may arise in advanced designs, in-service surveillance is always done in order to compensate for a lack of knowledge: if we knew that components were not already failed and not trending toward failure, we would not perform surveillance, even in current-generation plants (except that prescriptive requirements would force us to do so). What is different about the surveillance program discussed here is that the issues are newer and the relevant experience base is less complete, so the surveillance presently contemplated may need to measure new things and/or measure them more often than has been traditional for surveillance coupons. The present report is devoted to the risk management framework and applies American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section XI, Division [1] to establish the structure of a protocol for carrying out the necessary surveillance. These documents are generic: they do not tell us how often to surveille, or what to surveille, or what to measure, but rather how to determine those things, given certain technical inputs. The Regulatory Development R&D Program [2] is currently developing the companion supporting technical basis for the materials surveillance technology that, when completed and validated, can be used by owner/operator and NRC to implement a materials degradation management program for ANLWRs. This report also outlines salient points of discussion, positive potential outcomes, and potential concerns from industry and the USNRC. These aspects of the report intend to inform future work to develop a proposed technical process for adoption by the industry and endorsement by the USNRC to allow developers to propose a risk informed and conservative approach for the use of materials where operating experience/data and codes and standards may not exist for use of a novel material in an operating reactor environment. Additionally, such a technology could be leveraged to potentially reduce part of the upfront materials data requirements from ongoing long-term materials testing so that early action on license application could be undertaken by NRC, in parallel with the continuation of long-term data collection. This could accelerate the schedule for a first-of-a-kind ANLWR deployment or a nth-of-a-kind new materials insertion for established ANLWR designs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Potential Supply Chain and Cost Reduction Strategies for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

This milestone represents a level of effort to provide recommendations for a supply chain plan and establish relationships between advanced reactor companies and large companies in the oil & gas and chemical industries. It represents a starting point to develop the plan with options, general equipment lists, and rough associated cost estimates of major equipment and the associated systems needed. This effort will provide an opportunity to leverage the experience that oil & gas and chemicals companies possess in large capital equipment procurement, modularization, acquisition and installation. Potential supply chain solutions will be discussed and preliminary options for worldwide manufacturers will be elucidated. The goal of this effort will be to leverage the years of accumulated experience in the oil & gas and chemical industries in the area of capital equipment acquisition to understand the potential supply chain options and to reduce potential acquisition costs by optimizing the supply chain options for advanced nuclear reactor modularization, manufacturing and acquisition.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cyber Risk Considerations for Nuclear Digital I&C Systems

Many engineers and scientists researching modeling and analysis methods for nuclear energy advancement are focused on proof-of-concept and early-stage development for new reactor designs. Since instrumentation and control (I&C) systems are traditionally developed later in the systems engineering lifecycle, researchers may be unfamiliar with modern digital technology used in these I&C systems. It is even more likely that they are unfamiliar with the cyber risks associated with them. This paper provides a brief overview of nuclear digital I&C systems before examining the importance of cyber risk management at nuclear reactors and the benefits of including Cyber-Informed Engineering throughout the systems engineering lifecycle. The primary goal is for engineers and scientists to develop a mindset that incorporates cybersecurity as another discipline alongside safety when designing and developing new technologies, regardless of technology readiness level.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Irradiation Damages of Structural Materials under Different Irradiation Environments

For the advancement and development of nuclear systems used in heavy irradiation environments such as fusion DEMO reactors, fission reactors, fast reactors, and accelerator driven target systems, it is necessary to fully understand the changes of mechanical properties and the other properties of the materials induced by irradiation and to clarify the synergistic effect of displacement damage and helium generation. In this study the mechanical property changes and microstructural development induce by displacement damage and helium production have been mainly examined in austenitic stainless steels, 316FR and type304, and ferritic/martensitic steel, HCM12A, irradiated at around 550oC in JRR-3M reactor and/or JOYO fast reactor. At 550°C, 316FR steel was superior to 304 steel in terms of the amount of ductility and strength with respect to irradiation resistance. It is noteworthy that at 550 °C as well as room temperature, the higher fracture strength of the 316FR steels is a remarkable result. It is found that helium atoms strongly influenced on creep lifetime of the irradiated austenitic stainless steel, 316FR. It was found that the ratio of creep rupture time is slightly lower than the lower limit of previous study’s Miyaji and co-workers in the region from 0.01 appm to 1 appm. It is also found that the lower limit of reduction ratio of creep rupture time (irradiation specimen to unirradiation one) does not decrease linearly with the helium production above 10 appm up to about 33 appm. dpa enhanced the reduction of creep lifetime. Recent R&D of high-energy accelerator driven target systems used under heavy irradiation environment is also introduced and discussed for high radiation resistance materials such as Ti alloys with very high number density of nano size precipitate, which have been studying under RaDIATE collaboration, from points of view of irradiation damage and materials development.

radiation damage, structural alloys, neutron irrad↗
DOE OSTI2022

VERA BWR progression problems

During the first phase of the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program, the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) was developed with a focus on capabilities for high-fidelity, multiphysics simulation of pressurized water reactors (PWRs). During this development effort, a set of progression problems was created ranging from smaller pin cell calculations to larger 3D full-core calculations. These progression problems helped to guide the development of the software and served as benchmarks against which to test VERA. Since 2019, efforts have been made to extend the capabilities of VERA to model boiling water reactors (BWRs). Because BWR simulations come with many unique challenges, a set of BWR progression problems was developed to aid in this new effort. The BWR progression problems range from 2D lattice calculations to 3D mini-core problems, and reference neutronic solutions were computed using continuous-energy Monte Carlo codes. MPACT, one of the neutronics code in VERA, was benchmarked using the BWR progression problems. The code is capable of computing solutions to all problems. The eigenvalues computed by MPACT agree well with the Monte Carlo reference solutions. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

BWR Progression Problems

Under the Consortium for the Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) Program, the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) was developed with the primary focus to model pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Recently, a new project was started to extend the modeling capability in VERA to model boiling water reactors (BWRs). The new project is called “Modeling and Analysis of Exelon BWRs for Eigenvalue and Thermal Limits Predictability,” and it is led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Exelon with participation from Global Nuclear Fuel and three universities: North Carolina State University (NCSU), the University of Michigan, and the University of Illinois.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Sodium Fast Reactor Specific Consensus Standards and Recommendations for Future Regulatory Development for Standards Activities

The U.S. has designed, constructed, and operated several sodium fast reactors (SFRs). To support these efforts and to document best practices, activities associated with the development of standards and consensus standards were carried out, however, the vast majority of those SFR standards are currently in a withdrawn or inactive status. Consensus standards are useful during design and licensing of reactors, as is evident in the current nuclear power generation fleet. Consensus standards provide certainty and predictability between stakeholders during licensing and other regulatory interactions. These standards offer guidance, reflect expert positions, and establish effective practices for a wide range of topics. Consensus standards are developed by committees with representation from a broad cross-section of industry, organizations, professional societies, and government agencies. However, most existing consensus standards applicable to nuclear power plants were developed specifically for light-water reactor (LWR) designs and may not adequately address specific advanced non-LWR design topics such as those related to SFRs.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗