SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Case study of a DOE 2021 Housing Innovation Award winning custom home in a marine climate that got a HERS -13 with PV, with 1,804 square feet, highly efficient construction; high-efficiency ductless minisplit heat pumps, appliances, and lighting; triple-pane windows; and 9.9 kW of solar panels on each of the monoplane roofs.
This presentation outlines the SCoRE tool, which can be used to identify the least-cost technology substitution pathway to meeting a decarbonization target within an operating region of the United States. The presentation showcases results from an application of the tool in the ERCOT operating region.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
This work evaluates the life cycle environmental performance of Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) across different biomass types, processing technologies, and capture rates. Preliminary results suggest that carbon neutrality could be achieved if 35% biomass is co-fired with 90% carbon capture and sequestration.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
A presentation describing carbon management strategies including direct air and point source capture.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
A nuclear assisted carbon negative hybrid energy process that enables production of synthetic bio-crude oil and biochar from Eastern Idaho waste biomass is proposed. The process integrates nuclear powered electricity with high temperature steam electrolysis and biomass hydropyrolysis. The bio-crude oil is of sufficient composition and blended with traditional crude oil at a refinery. Hydrogen from the electrolyzer is pressurized and inserted into the pyrolyzer. Non condensable gases generated in the hydropyrolysis process are burned with oxygen from the electrolyzer to produce heat for the electrolyzer, biomass dryer, and pyrolyzer. The biochar is returned to the soil via fertilizer application and remains there for thousands of years. Since the total process uses nuclear generated electricity, the carbon in the biochar is ultimately sequestered from the atmosphere, thus making the process carbon negative. Using Eastern Idaho wheat or barley straw, this hybrid energy process has the potential to provide an alternative petroleum source. Two options exist for the system design: 1) send electricity from the nuclear plant and straw to a chemical processing plant to produce the bio-crude and biochar, 2) construct the biomass processing facility near the nuclear plant to allow use of nuclear-generated process heat to drive the chemical. Process model description and results are discussed. The process is sized to produce gasoline and diesel at the rate that the INL uses every day for fleet usage.
Presentation needed to give to Waste Generator attendees that ship waste to NNSS and enter shipments on HAZTRAK.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.
For aiming to keep global warming well-below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C, as set out in the Paris Agreement, a full-fledged assessment of negative emission technologies (NETs) that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is crucial to inform science-based policy making. With the Paris Agreement in mind, we re-analyse available scenario evidence to understand the roles of NETs in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios and, for the first time, link this to a systematic review of findings in the underlying literature. In line with previous research, we find that keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires a rapid large-scale deployment of NETs, while for 2 °C, we can still limit NET deployment substantially by ratcheting up near-term mitigation ambition. Most recent evidence stresses the importance of future socio-economic conditions in determining the flexibility of NET deployment and suggests opportunities for hedging technology risks by adopting portfolios of NETs. Importantly, our thematic review highlights that there is a much richer set of findings on NETs than commonly reflected upon both in scientific assessments and available reviews. In particular, beyond the common findings on NETs underpinned by dozens of studies around early scale-up, the changing shape of net emission pathways or greater flexibility in the timing of climate policies, there is a suite of “niche and emerging findings”, e.g. around innovation needs and rapid technological change, termination of NETs at the end of the twenty-first century or the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of NETs that have not been widely appreciated. Future research needs to explore the role of climate damages on NET uptake, better understand the geophysical constraints of NET deployment (e.g. water, geological storage, climate feedbacks), and provide a more systematic assessment of NET portfolios in the context of sustainable development goals.
Highlights: • Cancer cells–derived factors, such as IL-8 and G-CSF, induce NETs formation via PAD4 and NF-κB. • NETs increase the interaction of NEMO with IKKα/β and enhance NF-κB activation. • Blockade of NETs using PAD4 inhibitor decreases NF-κB and tumor metastasis. • Selective inhibition of NF-κB reduces NETs formation and tumor growth and metastasis. Aberrant NF-κB activation and neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) are associated with breast cancer progression. How NF-κB and NETs modulate each other in breast cancer development remains unclear. Here, we found that NETs induced by phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate promote breast cancer cell progression. In turn, cancer cells–derived factors, such as IL-8 and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, stimulate neutrophils to form NETs. Mechanistically, NETs increased the interaction of NF-κB essential modifier (NEMO) with IκB kinase (IKK)α/β and enhanced NF-κB activation. We then employed a cell-permeable peptide corresponding to the NEMO-binding domain (NBD) of IKKα/β, termed NBD peptide, which disrupts NETs-mediated NEMO interaction with IKKα/β and abolished NF-κB activation in vitro. NBD peptide also reduced IL-8 level and NETs formation, and suppressed primary tumor growth and/or lung metastasis in human breast cancer mouse xenograft models and mouse spontaneous breast cancer model. Blockade of NET formation using a peptidylarginine deiminase 4 (PAD4) pharmacologic inhibitor decreased NF-κB activation and tumor metastasis. Collectively, these data suggest that NF-κB associates with NETs to form a positive loop facilitating breast tumor progression and metastasis, and that selective inhibition of NF-κB and PAD4-dependent NETs provides an effective therapeutic approach for treating breast cancer.
Across the Arctic, the net ecosystem carbon (C) balance of tundra ecosystems is highly uncertain due to substantial temporal variability of C fluxes and to landscape heterogeneity. We modeled both carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes for the dominant regional land cover types in a sub-Arctic tundra region in northeast European Russia for the period of 2006-2015 using coupled biogeochemical and permafrost models. Modeled net annual CO2 fluxes ranged from -300 g C m-2 y-1 [net uptake] in a willow fen to 3 g C m-2 y-1 [net source] in dry lichen tundra. Modeled annual CH4 emissions ranged from -0.2 to 22.3 g C m-2 y-1 at a peat plateau site and a willow fen site, respectively. Interannual variability over the decade was relatively small (20-30%) in comparison to variability among the land cover types (120-225%). Using high-resolution land cover classification, the region was a net sink of atmospheric CO2 across most land cover types but a net source of CH4 to the atmosphere due to high emissions from permafrost-free fens. Using a lower-resolution for land cover classification resulted in a 20-65% underestimation of regional CH4 flux and smaller (10%) overestimation of regional CO2 uptake, leading to an overall overestimation of the regional GHG sink by 90% due to the underestimation of wetland extent by 60%. Accurately capturing the relative fraction of uplands versus wetlands was key to determining the net regional C balance but required high (<25-30 m) spatial resolution.
Purpose: To assess and compare the multiphasic computed tomography (CT) features of neuroendocrine tumor (NET) liver metastases and to investigate the possibility to predict the histologic subtype of the primary tumor. Materials and methods: Between January 2013 and December 2017 patients with biopsy proven NET with at least one liver metastasis who underwent multiphasic CT were enrolled in this study. All cases were acquired using a standardized multiphasic liver CT protocol, arterial, portal, and hepatic venous phases were obtained. Images were retrospectively analyzed in consensus by two abdominal radiologists blinded to clinical data and histologic subtype. The size, number, and location of lesions were noted. Enhancement patterns of each lesion on arterial, portal, and hepatic venous phases were assessed. For quantitative analysis, CT attenuation of tumors, liver parenchyma, and aorta were measured using a circular region of interest (ROI) on arterial, portal, and hepatic venous phases for reflecting the blood supply of the tumor. Tumor-to-aorta and tumor-to-liver ratio were calculated in all three phases. Differences between subtypes of NET liver metastases were studied using ROC analysis of clustered data. Results: A total of 255 neuroendocrine tumor liver metastases divided into 101 (39.6%) pancreatic, 60 (23.5%) gastroenteric and 94 (36.8%) lung NET liver metastases were analyzed. Contrast enhancement of lesions was homogeneous in 78% of patients (n = 199), which was significantly more frequent in patients with pancreatic group than in those with gastroenteric origin (n = 90, 89.1% vs. n = 28, 46.7%; p < 0.001). Gastroenteric NET metastases frequently showed heterogeneous enhancement, which was significantly higher than in the other two groups (50% vs. 3% and 2%). With respect to the location of the primary tumor, the difference in enhancement patterns of the liver lesions was statistically significant (p < 0.001). Pancreatic NET metastases were mostly hyperdense on arterial images and isodense on portal and hepatic venous phase images (79.2%, n = 80). Gastroenteric NET metastases were mostly hyperdense on arterial phase images and hypodense on portal and hepatic venous phase images (n = 28, 46.7%). The most frequent pattern for lung NET metastases was hypoattenuation on all three phase images (n = 44, 46.8%). ROC analysis of clustered data revealed statistically significant differences between pancreatic NET liver metastases, gastroenteric NET liver metastases, and lung NET liver metastases in terms of tumor-to-aorta (T–A) ratio and tumor-to-liver (T–L) ratio (p < 0.001). Conclusion: We observed statistically significant differences in multiphasic CT features (enhancement pattern, T–A ratio, and T–L ratio) between histologic subtypes of NET liver metastases. As the difference in histological subtypes of NET liver metastases results in a different prognosis and different management strategy, these CT features might help to identify the primary tumor when it is not known to ensure accurate tumor staging and to provide optimal treatment.
This study focuses on the comparative study of deep learning (DL) models for pore space and discrete fracture networks (DFNs) segmentation in synthetic fractured digital rocks, specifically targeting low-permeability rock formations, such as shale and tight sandstones. Accurate characterization of pore space and DFNs is critical for subsequent property analysis and fluid flow modeling. Four DL models, SegNet, U-Net, U-Net-wide, and nested U-Net (i.e., U-Net++), were trained, validated, and tested using synthetic datasets, including input and label image pairs with varying properties. The model performance was assessed regarding pixel-wise metrics, including the F1 score and pixel-wise difference maps. In addition, the physics-based metrics were considered for further analysis, including sample porosity and absolute permeability. Particularly, We first simulated the permeability of porous media containing only pore space and then simulated the permeability of porous media with DFNs added. The difference between these two values is used to quantify the connectivity of segmented DFNs, which is an important parameter for low-permeability rocks. The pixel-wise metrics showed that the nested U-Net model outperformed the rest of the DL models in pore space and DFNs segmentation, with the SegNet model exhibiting the second-best performance. Particularly, nested U-Net enhanced segmentation accuracy for challenging boundary pixels affected by partial volume effects. The U-Net-wide model achieved improved accuracy compared to the U-Net model, which indicated the influence of parameter numbers. Similarly, nested U-Net has the closest match to the ground truth of physics-based metrics, including the porosity of pore space and DFNs, and the permeability difference quantifying the connectivity of DFNs. The findings highlight the effectiveness of DL models, especially the U-Net++ model with nested architecture and redesigned skip connections, in accurately segmenting pore spaces and DFNs, which are crucial for pore-scale fluid flow and transport simulation in low-permeability rocks.
Mountains create and enhance their own clouds, which both scatter and absorb shortwave radiation from the sun and absorb and re-emit land surface and atmospheric longwave radiation. However, the impacts of clouds on the surface radiation balance in high elevation snowy mountain terrain are poorly explored. In this study, we use data collected by the SAIL field campaign and partner organizations in the upper elevations (2,880 m.a.s.l) of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) over a 21-month period from September 2021 to June 2023 to estimate Cloud Radiative Forcing (CRF) in the shortwave, longwave, and the net effect. Longwave warming effects dominate during the winter when snow albedos are high (0.8–0.9) and the background atmospheric precipitable water vapor is low (<0.5 cm), yielding a maximum monthly average net CRF of +34.7 W·m -2 , meaning that clouds increase the net radiation relative to clear skies during this time period. The sign of net CRF switches in the warm season as snow recedes, sun-angles increase, and the North American monsoon arrives, yielding a minimum monthly average net CRF of -47.6 W·m -2 with hourly minima of -600 W·m -2 . The sign of net CRF is typically positive, even at solar noon, when the surface is snow covered, except for a brief period over melting, low-albedo snow (0.5–0.6) impacted by dust impurities. Sensitivity tests elucidate the role of the surface albedo on the net CRF. The results suggest that net CRF will increase in magnitude and lead to a more persistent cooling effect on the surface net radiation budget as the snow cover declines.