Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “yield estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 811 records · Page 45

Lightning NO(x) Production and Its Consequences for Tropospheric Chemistry

Cloud-resolving case-study simulations of convective transport and lightning NO production have yielded results which are directly applicable to the design of lightning parameterizations for global chemical transport models. In this work we have used cloud-resolving models (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE) and MMS) to drive an off-line cloud-scale chemical transport model (CSCTM). The CSCTM, in conjunction with aircraft measurements of NO(x) in thunderstorms and ground-based lightning observations, has been used to constrain the amount of NO produced per flash. Cloud and chemistry simulations for several case studies of storms in different environments will be presented. Observed lightning flash rates have been incorporated into the CSCTM, and several scenarios of NO production per intracloud (IC) and per cloud-to-ground (CG) flash have been tested for each storm. The resulting NO(x) mixing ratios are compared with aircraft measurements taken within the storm (typically the anvil region) to determine the most likely NO production scenario. The range of values of NO production per flash (or per meter of lightning channel length) that have been deduced from the model will be shown and compared with values of production in the literature that have been deduced from observed NO spikes and from anvil flux calculations. Results show that on a per flash basis, IC flashes are nearly as productive of NO as CG flashes. This result simplifies the lightning parameterization for global models (ie., an algorithm for estimating the ICKG ratio is not necessary). Vertical profiles of lightning NOx mass at the end of the 3-D storm simulations have been summarized to yield suggested profiles for use in global models. Estimates of mean NO production per flash vary by a factor of three from one simulated storm to another. When combined with the global flash rate of 44 flashes per second from NASA's Optical Transient Detector (OTD) measurements, these estimates and the results from other techniques yield global NO production rates of 2-9 TgN/year. Simulations of the photochemistry over the 24 hours following a storm has been performed to determine the additional ozone production which can be attributed to lightning NO. Convective transport of HO(x), precursors leads to the generation of a HO(x), plume which substantially aids the downstream ozone production.

Pickering, Kenneth E.↗

Lightning NOx Production and Its Consequences for Tropospheric Chemistry

Cloud-resolving case-study simulations of convective transport and lightning NO production have yielded results which are directly applicable to the design of lightning parameterizations for global chemical transport models. In this work we have used cloud-resolving models (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE) and MMS) to drive an off-line cloud-scale chemical transport model (CSCTM). The CSCTM, in conjunction with aircraft measurements of NO x in thunderstorms and ground-l;>ased lightning observations, has been used to constrain the amount of NO produced per flash. Cloud and chemistry simulations for several case studies of storms in different environments will be presented. Observed lightning flash rates have been incorporated into the CSCTM, and several scenarios of NO production per intracloud (IC) and per cloud-to-ground (CG) flash have been tested for each storm. The resulting NOx mixing ratios are compared with aircraft measurements taken within the storm (typically the anvil region) to determine the most likely NO production scenario. The range of values of NO production per flash (or per meter of lightning channel length) that have been deduced from the model will be shown and compared with values of production in the literature that have been deduced from observed NO spikes and from anvil flux calculations. Results show that on a per flash basis, IC flashes are nearly as productive of NO as CG flashes. This result simplifies the lightning parameterization for global models (ie., an algorithm for estimating the IC/CG ratio is not necessary). Vertical profiles of lightning NOx mass at the end of the 3-D storm simulations have been summarized to yield suggested profiles for use in global models. Estimates of mean NO production per flash vary by a factor of three from one simulated storm to another. When combined with the global flash rate of 44 flashes per second from NASA's Optical Transient Detector (OTD) measurements, these estimates and the results from other techniques yield global NO production rates of2-9 TgN/year. Simulations of the photochemistry over the 24 hours following a storm has been performed to determine the additional ozone production which can be attributed to lightning NO. Convective transport of HOx precursors leads to the generation of a HOx plume which substantially aids the downstream ozone production.

Pickering, Kenneth E.↗

Terrestrial impact rates for long and short-period comets

The present calculations of terrestrial impact rates for longand short-period comets crossing the earth's orbit respectively yield probabilities of 2.2 x 10 to the -9th/perihelion passage (with a probable velocity of 56.6 km/sec), and 6.6 x 10 to the -9th/perihelion passage (probable velocity, 28.9 km/sec). The total cratering rate from both long- and short-period comets is about 15 percent of the observed rate derived from known terrestrial astroblemes, although there is substantial uncertainty in both estimates. The estimated cratering rate from earth-crossing asteroids given by Shoemaker et al. (1979) is about twice the observed rate, and Monte Carlo simulations of the dynamical evolution of the Oort (1950) cloud yield cometary flux rate estimates for the early solar system of the order of 200 times the current flux.

Weissman, P. R.↗

Magellan in-flight gyro/star scanner misalignment calibration

Techniques are described for the in-flight calibration of gyro/star scanner misalignments for the Magellan spacecraft. The poor observability of one of the six components of misalignment is discussed in the context of a simple least-squares estimation model. The assumptions that lead to singularity in the information matrix are explicitly stated and it is shown that the singularity persists for all scanner slit configurations using only two slits, regardless of slit geometry or separation. A set of misalignment error state variables, a configuration of three stars, and a maneuver/scan sequence is described which yields a well-conditioned information matrix for least-squares estimation of five of the six misalignments. Finally, it is shown by convariance simulation that ground-based optimal estimation can satisfactorily resolve all six components of the misalignment error when more than two star scanner slits are used.

Boone, Jack N.↗

Out of the blue: volcanic SO e2 emissions during the 2021–2022 eruptions of Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha'apai (Tonga)

Most volcanism on Earth is submarine, but volcanic gas emissions by submarine eruptions are rarely observed and hence largely unquantified. On January 15, 2022 a submarine eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano (Tonga) generated an explosion of historic magnitude, and was preceded by ≈1 month of Surtseyan eruptive activity and two precursory explosive eruptions. We present an analysis of ultraviolet (UV) satellite measurements of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) between December 2021 and the climactic January 15, 2022 eruption, comprising an unprecedented record of Surtseyan eruptive emissions. UV measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite, the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) on Suomi-NPP, the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on ESA’s Sentinel-5P, and the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) aboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) are combined to yield a consistent multi-sensor record of eruptive degassing. We estimate SO 2 emissions during the eruption’s key phases: the initial December 19, 2021 eruption (≈0.01 Tg SO 2 ); continuous SO 2 emissions from December 20, 2021 – early January 2022 (≈0.12 Tg SO 2 ); the January 13, 2022 stratospheric eruption (0.06 Tg SO 2 ); and the paroxysmal January 15, 2022 eruption (≈0.4-0.5 Tg SO 2 ); yielding a total SO 2 emission of ≈0.60.7 Tg SO 2 for the eruptive episode. We interpret the vigorous SO 2 emissions observed prior to the January 2022 eruptions, which were significantly higher than measured in the 2009 and 2014 HTHH eruptions, as strong evidence for a rejuvenated magmatic system. High cadence DSCOVR/EPIC SO 2 imagery permits the first UV-based analysis of umbrella cloud spreading and volume flux in the January 13, 2022 eruption, and also tracks early dispersion of the stratospheric SO 2 cloud injected on January 15. The ≈0.4-0.5 Tg SO 2 discharged by the paroxysmal January 15, 2022 HTHH eruption is low relative to other eruptions of similar magnitude, and a review of other submarine eruptions in the satellite era indicates that modest SO 2 yields may be characteristic of submarine volcanism, with the emissions and atmospheric impacts likely dominated by water vapor. The origin of the low SO 2 loading awaits further investigation but scrubbing of SO 2 in the water-rich eruption plumes and rapid conversion to sulfate aerosol are plausible, given the exceptional water emission by the January 15, 2022 HTHH eruption.

Volcanoes↗

McLaughlin Crater as a Candidate Landing Site for Humans on Mars

McLaughlin Crater is an ancient (Noachian) Martian impact crater located at 337.6 East, 21.9 North, just south of the dichotomy boundary. This site should be considered for future landed exploration because: a) it is located at the boundary of three types of scientifically important terrain that will yield key results about the geological evolution and habitability of Mars; b) it contains surfaces where radiometric dating can be related to age dates estimated from crater counting, c) it contains volatile-rich rocks that will not only yield interesting results regarding ancient atmospheric chemistry, but will also be high quality, accessible targets for in-situ resource utilization (ISRU), and d) the site within the crater provides a flat, low-risk and low-elevation landing zone, which will facilitate landing large payloads on Mars.

Michalski, J. R.↗

Validation of temperature retrievals obtained by the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) experiment on Nimbus 7

An outline is given of LIMS temperature determinations (as a function of pressure) from measurements in two channels covering portions of the 15-micrometer band of carbon dioxide. The known sources of error from the radiometer and data reduction are used to estimate the systematic and random errors expected of the results. Observational determinations of the complete end-to-end precision are obtained by computing the standard deviation of six sequential temperature retrievals in regions where the atmosphere is horizontally uniform. This yields values of 0.2 to 0.6 K, in reasonable agreement with the estimates. A correction for horizontal gradients in the atmosphere leads to a large reduction in the differences between the stratospheric temperatures determined on the ascending and descending portions of the orbit. The temperatures agree in the mean with radiosondes and rocketsondes to within 1-2 K in most regions below 1 mbar. Several interesting, previously unseen features included cold regions in the mid-latitude mesosphere and wavelike vertical variations in the tropics.

Gille, J. C.↗

A Survey of Xenon Ion Sputter Yield Data and Fits Relevant to Electric Propulsion Spacecraft Integration

A survey of low energy xenon ion impact sputter yields was conducted to provide a more coherent baseline set of sputter yield data and accompanying fits for electric propulsion integration. Data uncertainties are discussed and different available curve fit formulas are assessed for their general suitability. A Bayesian parameter fitting approach is used with a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to provide estimates for the fitting parameters while characterizing the uncertainties for the resulting yield curves.

xenon↗

The adaptation of a strap down formulation for processing inertial platform data

An estimator propagation formulation which ultilizes dynamic data (attitude and sensed acceleration information) from a gimballed inertial platform has been developed to aid in the Shuttle post-flight trajectory reconstruction process and aerodynamic coefficient determination studies. Unlike the classical inertial algorithms, this formulation yields a six degree-of-freedom fully coupled state and attitude estimate. Furthermore, this inertial version is shown to be independent of initial unknown platform misalignments. Results obtained using actual Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) data and Aerodynamic Coefficient Identification Package (ACIP) strap down data from Shuttle flights are presented.

Heck, M. L.↗

Rapid estimation of bending frequencies of rotating beams

A procedure is presented in the form of charts which permits the rapid estimation of the natural bending frequencies of helicopter rotor blades, both rotating and nonrotating. Since the approach is based on Southwell's equation, an evaluation of the method with regard to such things as higher modes, blade offset, and variable mass and stiffness distributions is also given. The evaluation shows that when nonrotating beam bending modes are used, Southwell's equation yields reasonably accurate bending frequencies for rotating helicopter blades. Example comparisons of frequencies estimated using the charts with values given by the manufacturer for several actual blades show that the simplified procedure yields good practical results.

Robert T Yntema↗

Improving the Monitoring of Crop Productivity Using Spaceborne Solar-Induced Fluorescence

Large-scale monitoring of crop growth and yield has important value for forecasting food production and prices and ensuring regional food security. A newly emerging satellite retrieval, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) of chlorophyll, provides for the first time a direct measurement related to plant photosynthetic activity (i.e. electron transport rate). Here, we provide a framework to link SIF retrievals and crop yield, accounting for stoichiometry, photosynthetic pathways, and respiration losses. We apply this framework to estimate United States crop productivity for 2007-2012, where we use the spaceborne SIF retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 satellite, benchmarked with county-level crop yield statistics, and compare it with various traditional crop monitoring approaches. We find that a SIF-based approach accounting for photosynthetic pathways (i.e. C3 and C4 crops) provides the best measure of crop productivity among these approaches, despite the fact that SIF sensors are not yet optimized for terrestrial applications. We further show that SIF provides the ability to infer the impacts of environmental stresses on autotrophic respiration and carbon-use-efficiency, with a substantial sensitivity of both to high temperatures. These results indicate new opportunities for improved mechanistic understanding of crop yield responses to climate variability and change.

Guan, Kaiyu↗

On the effects of the ocean on atmospheric CFC-11 lifetimes and emissions

The ocean is a reservoir for CFC-11, a major ozone-depleting chemical. Anthropogenic production of CFC-11 dramatically decreased in the 1990s under the Montreal Protocol, which stipulated a global phase out of production by 2010. However, studies raise questions about current overall emission levels and indicate unexpected increases of CFC-11 emissions of about 10 Gg/yr after 2013 (based upon measured atmospheric concentrations and an assumed atmospheric lifetime). These findings heighten the need to understand processes that could affect the CFC-11 lifetime, including ocean fluxes. We evaluate how ocean uptake and release through 2300 affects CFC-11 lifetimes, emission estimates, and the long-term return of CFC-11 from the ocean reservoir. We show that ocean uptake yields a shorter total lifetime and larger inferred emission of atmospheric CFC-11 from 1930 to 2075 compared to estimates using only atmospheric processes. Ocean flux changes over time result in small but not completely negligible effects on the calculated unexpected emissions change (decreasing it by 0.4 ± 0.3 Gg/yr). Moreover, it is expected that the ocean will eventually become a source of CFC-11, increasing its total lifetime thereafter. Ocean outgassing should produce detectable increases in global atmospheric CFC-11 abundances by the mid-2100s, with emission of around 0.5 Gg/yr; this should not be confused with illicit production at that time. An illustrative model projection suggests that climate change is expected to make the ocean a weaker reservoir for CFC-11, advancing the detectable change in the global atmospheric mixing ratio by about 5 yr.

Anthropogenic production of CFC-11↗

Improvements in aircraft extraction programs

Flight data from an F-8 Corsair and a Cessna 172 was analyzed to demonstrate specific improvements in the LRC parameter extraction computer program. The Cramer-Rao bounds were shown to provide a satisfactory relative measure of goodness of parameter estimates. It was not used as an absolute measure due to an inherent uncertainty within a multiplicative factor, traced in turn to the uncertainty in the noise bandwidth in the statistical theory of parameter estimation. The measure was also derived on an entirely nonstatistical basis, yielding thereby also an interpretation of the significance of off-diagonal terms in the dispersion matrix. The distinction between coefficients as linear and non-linear was shown to be important in its implication to a recommended order of parameter iteration. Techniques of improving convergence generally, were developed, and tested out on flight data. In particular, an easily implemented modification incorporating a gradient search was shown to improve initial estimates and thus remove a common cause for lack of convergence.

Balakrishnan, A. V.↗

A photoelectric lightcurve survey of small main belt asteroids

A survey to obtain photoelectric lightcurves of small main-belt asteroids was conducted from November 1981 to April 1982 using the 0.91- and 2.1-m telescopes at the University of Texas McDonald Observatory. A total of 18 main-belt asteroids having estimated dimaters under 30 km were observed with over half of these being smaller than 15 km. Rotational periods were determined or estimated from multiple nights of observation for nearly all of these yielding a sample of 17 small main-belt asteroids which is believed to be free of observational selection effects. All but two of these objects were investigated for very short periods in the range of 1 min to 2 hr using power spectrum analysis of a continuous set of integrations. No evidence for such short periods was seen in this sample. Rotationally averaged B(1,0) magnitudes were determined for most of the surveyed asteroids, allowing diameter estimates to be made. Imposing the suspected selection effects of photogaphic photometry on the results of this survey gives excellent agreement with the results from that technique. This shows that the inability of photographic photometry to obtain results for many asteroids is indeed due to the rotational parameter of those asteroids.

Binzel, R. P.↗

Incremental Learning for Passive Microwave Precipitation Retrievals using Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder

Spaceborne passive microwave (PMW) radiometry is central to global precipitation monitoring, yet retrieval uncertainties remain substantial, particularly for cross-track sounders whose variable footprints and channel configurations are optimized for atmospheric temperature and moisture profiling rather than precipitation. Consequently, existing operational products often exhibit angular-dependent biases, limited effective swath utilization, unrealistic rainfall probability distributions, and systematic misclassification of precipitation phase. These limitations are further compounded by the scarcity of globally accurate and representative precipitation observations, as training data from the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) are spatially sparse, lack uniform global coverage, and exhibit heterogeneous error characteristics across precipitation regimes. To address these challenges, this study presents a supervised retrieval algorithm that incrementally trains an ensemble of extreme gradient-boosted decision trees by augmenting base learners with pre-training on reanalysis data and post-training on coincident DPR and CPR observations matched with the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). By transferring prior information from reanalysis to posterior constraints from radar observations and adopting a sequential detection–estimation strategy for precipitation phase and rate retrieval, the proposed approach yields retrievals across the full ATMS swath that are largely free from persistent deficiencies in current Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) passive microwave operational products. In particular, the method resolves bimodal artifacts in rainfall retrievals and mitigates systematic high-latitude snowfall biases, including overestimation across the Arctic and underestimation across the Antarctic. Validation against independent Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) data over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) further demonstrates improved performance in precipitation phase detection and rate estimation relative to both reanalysis and current GPM PMW products.

Mahyar Garshasbi↗

Fracture temperature and flaw growth in nitronic 40 at cryogenic temperatures

The fracture resistance and fatigue response of Armco Nitronic 40 austenitic stainless steel were evaluated under cryogenic conditions. Tensile, fracture toughness and fatigue crack growth properties were measured at -275 F. The tensile yield strength was approximately 120 ksi and the fracture toughness was estimated to be 350 ksi-in /2 on the basis of fracture toughness measurements. Testing was conducted to evaluate the behavior of a simulated section of the wing of the Pathfinder 1 model subject to a load and temperature history typical of that for testing in the National Transonic Facility. The wing section model incorporated a proposed brazing technique for pressure-transducer attachment. The simulated wing section performed satisfactorily at stress levels of nearly 60 percent of the material yield strength. The brazing technique proved to be an effective method of transducer attachment under conditions of high stress levels and large temperature excursions.

Domack, M. S.↗

Mapping of CO2 at High Spatiotemporal Resolution using Satellite Observations: Global distributions from OCO-2

Satellite observations of CO2 offer new opportunities to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Using such observations to infer global maps of atmospheric CO2 and their associated uncertainties can provide key information about the distribution and dynamic behavior of CO2, through comparison to atmospheric CO2 distributions predicted from biospheric, oceanic, or fossil fuel flux emissions estimates coupled with atmospheric transport models. Ideally, these maps should be at temporal resolutions that are short enough to represent and capture the synoptic dynamics of atmospheric CO2. This study presents a geostatistical method that accomplishes this goal. The method can extract information about the spatial covariance structure of the CO2 field from the available CO2 retrievals, yields full coverage (Level 3) maps at high spatial resolutions, and provides estimates of the uncertainties associated with these maps. The method does not require information about CO2 fluxes or atmospheric transport, such that the Level 3 maps are informed entirely by available retrievals. The approach is assessed by investigating its performance using synthetic OCO-2 data generated from the PCTM/ GEOS-4/CASA-GFED model, for time periods ranging from 1 to 16 days and a target spatial resolution of 1deg latitude x 1.25deg longitude. Results show that global CO2 fields from OCO-2 observations can be predicted well at surprisingly high temporal resolutions. Even one-day Level 3 maps reproduce the large-scale features of the atmospheric CO2 distribution, and yield realistic uncertainty bounds. Temporal resolutions of two to four days result in the best performance for a wide range of investigated scenarios, providing maps at an order of magnitude higher temporal resolution relative to the monthly or seasonal Level 3 maps typically reported in the literature.

Hammerling, Dorit M.↗

Elevation Change of the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet from Satellite Radar Altimeter Data

Long-term changes in the thickness of the polar ice sheets are important indicators of climate change. Understanding the contributions to the global water mass balance from the accumulation or ablation of grounded ice in Greenland and Antarctica is considered crucial for determining the source of the about 2 mm/yr sea-level rise in the last century. Though the Antarctic ice sheet is much larger than its northern counterpart, the Greenland ice sheet is more likely to undergo dramatic changes in response to a warming trend. This can be attributed to the warmer Greenland climate, as well as a potential for amplification of a global warming trend in the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In collaboration with Drs. Curt Davis and Craig Kluever of the University of Missouri, we are using data from satellite radar altimeters to measure changes in the elevation of the Southern Greenland ice sheet from 1978 to the present. Difficulties with systematic altimeter measurement errors, particularly in intersatellite comparisons, beset earlier studies of the Greenland ice sheet thickness. We use altimeter data collected contemporaneously over the global ocean to establish a reference for correcting ice-sheet data. In addition, the waveform data from the ice-sheet radar returns are reprocessed to better determine the range from the satellite to the ice surface. At JPL, we are focusing our efforts principally on the reduction of orbit errors and range biases in the measurement systems on the various altimeter missions. Our approach emphasizes global characterization and reduction of the long-period orbit errors and range biases using altimeter data from NASA's Ocean Pathfinder program. Along-track sea-height residuals are sequentially filtered and backwards smoothed, and the radial orbit errors are modeled as sinusoids with a wavelength equal to one revolution of the satellite. The amplitudes of the sinusoids are treated as exponentially-correlated noise processes with a time-constant of six days. Measurement errors (e.g., altimeter range bias) are simultaneously recovered as constant parameters. The corrections derived from the global ocean analysis are then applied over the Greenland ice sheet. The orbit error and measurement bias corrections for different missions are developed in a single framework to enable robust linkage of ice-sheet measurements from 1978 to the present. In 1998, we completed our re-evaluation of the 1978 Seasat and 1985-1989 Geosat Exact Repeat Mission data. The estimates of ice thickness over Southern Greenland (south of 72N and above 2000 m) from 1978 to 1988 show large regional variations (+/-18 cm/yr), but yield an overall rate of +1.5 +/- 0.5 cm/yr (one standard error). Accounting for systematic errors, the estimate may not be significantly different from the null growth rate. The average elevation change from 1978 to 1988 is too small to assess whether the Greenland ice sheet is undergoing a long-term change.

Haines, Bruce J.↗