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DOE OSTI2023

Recent streamflow trends across permafrost basins of North America

Introduction Climate change impacts, including changing temperatures, precipitation, and vegetation, are widely anticipated to cause major shifts to the permafrost with resulting impacts to hydro-ecosystems across the high latitudes of the globe. However, it is challenging to examine streamflow shifts in these regions owing to a paucity of data, discontinuity of records, and other issues related to data consistency and accuracy. Methods Recent trends for long-term periods (1990–2021, 1976–2021) in observed minimum, mean, and maximum seasonal and annual streamflow were analyzed for a range of watersheds across North America affected by varying degrees of permafrost coverage. Results Streamflow trend analysis revealed that areas affected by permafrost are changing variably over the periods in terms of maximum, mean, and minimum seasonal and annual streamflow. These changes indicate a significant shift occurring in the most recent 46 years towards increasing mean streamflow for the dominant (> 50%) permafrost systems. Meanwhile, minimum streamflow increases for all permafrost-dominant systems and many of the other permafrost-affected systems across the seasons and annual periods considered, with the greatest number of significant changes in streamflow over other metrics. Maximum streamflow is shifting variably with significant increases in the permafrost-dominant systems in winter and fall over longer time periods of analysis. Our analysis suggests that streamflow trends are driven by climate (precipitation, followed by temperature), while variables such as permafrost coverage only appear important in the most recent 32-year period. Discussion The increases in streamflow trends observed in this study are reflective of deepening active layers and thawing permafrost, indicating that the entire hydrograph is undergoing change within permafrost-dominant streamflow systems as the Arctic moves towards a warmer future under climate change. Despite the many challenges to understanding changing streamflow in cold regions, there are new products and datasets in development that are increasingly allowing researchers to better understand the patterns of change in Arctic and subarctic systems affected by permafrost, offering a range of new tools, which, along with continued observational records, may help in improved understanding of changing Arctic streamflow patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Understanding the Origin of Structural Diversity of DNA Double Helix

Deciphering the contribution of DNA subunits to the variability of its 3D structure represents an important step toward the elucidation of DNA functions at the atomic level. In the pursuit of that goal, our previous studies revealed that the essential conformational characteristics of the most populated “canonic” BI and AI conformational families of Watson–Crick duplexes, including the sequence dependence of their 3D structure, preexist in the local energy minima of the elemental single-chain fragments, deoxydinucleoside monophosphates (dDMPs). Those computations have uncovered important sequence-dependent regularity in the superposition of neighbor bases. The present work expands our studies to new minimal fragments of DNA with Watson–Crick nucleoside pairs that differ from canonic families in the torsion angles of the sugar-phosphate backbone (SPB). To address this objective, computations have been performed on dDMPs, cdDMPs (complementary dDMPs), and minimal fragments of SPBs of respective systems by using methods of molecular and quantum mechanics. These computations reveal that the conformations of dDMPs and cdDMPs having torsion angles of SPB corresponding to the local energy minima of separate minimal units of SPB exhibit sequence-dependent characteristics representative of canonic families. In contrast, conformations of dDMP and cdDMP with SPB torsions being far from the local minima of separate SPB units exhibit more complex sequence dependence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Models for Mapping Groundwater Pollution Risk: Advancing Water Security and Sustainable Development Goals in Georgia, USA

The widespread use of pesticides, such as atrazine and malathion, in agricultural systems raises significant concerns regarding the contamination of groundwater, which serves as a critical resource for drinking water. This study applies machine learning techniques to predict the concentrations of atrazine and malathion in groundwater across Georgia, USA, using 2019 data. A Random Forest classifier was employed to integrate various environmental and demographic factors, including pesticide application rates, precipitation, lithology, and population density, to predict pesticide contamination in groundwater. The models demonstrated high training accuracies of 100% and moderate average testing accuracy of 55% for atrazine and 60% for malathion across five iterations. The low test accuracy of the model, ranging from 50% to 75%, is likely due to overfitting, which can be attributed to the small dataset size and the complex nature of pesticide-contamination patterns, making it challenging for the model to generalize to unseen data. Feature importance analysis revealed that average pesticide usage emerged as the most influential factor for atrazine, while aquifer lithology and precipitation played crucial roles in both models. These results provide valuable insights into the dynamics of pesticide contamination, highlighting areas at greater risk of contamination. The findings underscore the importance of integrating environmental, geological, and agricultural variables for more effective groundwater management and sustainable agricultural practices, contributing to the protection of water resources and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

Future changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and because the large internal variability of ENSO clouds the diagnosis of forced changes in observations and individual climate model simulations. By leveraging 14 single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability to anthropogenic forcing from internal variability in each SMILE. We find nonlinear changes in time in many models and considerable inter-model differences in projected changes in ENSO and the mean-state tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient. We demonstrate a linear relationship between the change in ENSO SST variability and the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient, although forced changes in the tropical Pacific SST gradient often occur later in the 21st century than changes in ENSO SST variability, which can lead to departures from the linear relationship. Single-forcing SMILEs show a potential contribution of anthropogenic forcing (aerosols and greenhouse gases) to historical changes in ENSO SST variability, while the observed historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific SST gradient sits on the edge of the model spread for those models for which single-forcing SMILEs are available. Our results highlight the value of SMILEs for investigating time-dependent forced responses and inter-model differences in ENSO projections. The nonlinear changes in ENSO SST variability found in many models demonstrate the importance of characterizing this time-dependent behavior, as it implies that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

Vegetation-terrain feature relationships in southeast Arizona

There are no author-identified significant results in this report. Studies of relationships of vegetation distribution to geomorphic characteristics of the landscape and of plant phenological patterns to vegetation identification of satellite imagery indicate that there exists positive relationships between certain plant species and certain terrain features. Not all species were found to exhibit positive relationships with all terrain feature variables, but enough positive relationships seem to exist to indicate that terrain feature variable-vegetation relationship studies have a definite place in plant ecological investigations. Even more importantly, the vegetation groups examined appeared to be successfully discriminated by the terrain feature variables. This would seem to indicate that spatial interpretations of vegetation groups may be possible. While vegetational distributions aren't determined by terrain feature differences, terrain features do mirror factors which directly influence vegetational response and hence distribution. As a result, those environmental features which can be readily and rapidly ascertained on relatively small-scale imagery may prove to be valuable indicators of vegetation distribution.

Schrumpf, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Eigenvalue uncertainty in stressed structures.

A method is presented for calculating the statistics of the natural frequencies and mode shapes of vibration for a structure acted upon by an external static loading which results in the structure being stressed for eigenvalue analysis. The analytical tools presented apply to the probabilistic eigenvalue problem, and it is apparent that structural parameter uncertainty will significantly influence all aspects of the structure's response. The treatment of a sample problem serves the purpose of furthering understanding for the importance of considering structural parameters as random variables.

Hart, G. C.↗

NASA NTRS1976

The Relation of Finite Element and Finite Difference Methods

Finite element and finite difference methods are examined in order to bring out their relationship. It is shown that both methods use two types of discrete representations of continuous functions. They differ in that finite difference methods emphasize the discretization of independent variable, while finite element methods emphasize the discretization of dependent variable (referred to as functional approximations). An important point is that finite element methods use global piecewise functional approximations, while finite difference methods normally use local functional approximations. A general conclusion is that finite element methods are best designed to handle complex boundaries, while finite difference methods are superior for complex equations. It is also shown that finite volume difference methods possess many of the advantages attributed to finite element methods.

Vinokur, M.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Atomic chlorine and the chlorine monoxide radical in the stratosphere - Three in situ observations

Three simultaneous observations of atomic chlorine (Cl) and the clorine monoxide radical (ClO) are reported which encompass the altitude interval between 25 and 45 kilometers. Together, Cl and ClO form a gas-phase catalytic cycle potentially capable of depleting stratospheric ozone. Observed Cl and ClO densities, although variable, imply that chlorine compounds constitute an important part of the stratospheric ozone budget. The results are compared with recent models of stratospheric photochemistry which have been used as a basis for predicting ozone depletion resulting from fluorocarbon release.

Anderson, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1988

High-resolution imaging of solar system objects

The strategy of this investigation has been to develop new high-resolution imaging capabilities and to apply them to extended observing programs. These programs have included Io's neutral sodium cloud and comets. The Io observing program was carried out at Table Mountain Observatory (1976 to 1981), providing a framework interpreting Voyager measurements of the Io torus, and serving as an important reference for studying asymmetries and time variabilities in the Jovian magnetosphere. Comet observations made with the 3.6 m Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope and 1.6 m AMOS telescope (1984 to 1987) provide basis for studying early coma development in Halley, the kinematics of its nucleus, and the internal and external structure of the nucleus. Images of GZ from the ICE encounter period form the basis for unique comparisons with in situ magnetic field and dust impact measurements to determine the ion tail and dust coma structure, respectively.

Goldberg, Bruce A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Considerations for an exercise prescription

A number of past and most recent research findings that describe some of the physiological responses to exercise in man and their relationship with exposure to various gravitational environments are discussed. Most of the data pertain to adaptations of the cardiovascular and body fluid systems. It should be kept in mind that the data from studies on microgravity simulation in man include exposures of relatively short duration (5 hours to 14 days). However, it is argued that the results may provide important guidelines for the consideration of many variables which are pertinent to the development of exercise prescription for long-duration space flight. The following considerations for exercise prescriptions during long-duration space flight are noted: (1) Relatively high aerobic fitness and strength, especially of the upper body musculature, should be a criterion for selection of astronauts who will be involved in EVA, since endurance and strength appear to be predominant characteristics for work performance. (2) Some degree of upper body strength will probably be required for effective performance of EVA. However, the endurance and strength required by the upper body for EVA can probably be obtained through preflight exercise prescription which involves swimming. (3) Although some degree of arm exercise may be required to maintain preflight endurance and strength, researchers propose that regular EVA will probably be sufficient to maintain the endurance and strength required to effectively perform work tasks during space flight. (4) A minimum of one maximal aerobic exercise every 7 to 10 days during space flight may be all that is necessary for maintenance of normal cardiovascular responsiveness and replacement of body fluids for reentry following prolonged space flight. (5) The possible reduction in the amount of exercise required for maintenance of cardiovascular system and body fluids in combination with the use of electromyostimulation (EMS) or methods other than conventional exercise for maintaining size and strength of muscles and bones needs great consideration for further research. These approaches represent a potential solution to the problem of compromising valuable time for exercise that is needed for daily operations.

Convertino, Victor A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary wave interactions and its implication for satellite observations: Theoretical modeling

The project objectives are to develop process models to investigate the interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves including the effects of latent heat release (precipitation), nonlinear dynamics, physical and boundary-layer processes, and large-scale topography; to determine the importance of latent heat release for temporal variability and time-mean behavior of planetary and synoptic-scale waves; to compare the model results with available observations of planetary and synoptic wave variability; and to assess the implications of the results for monitoring precipitation in oceanic-storm tracks by satellite observing systems. Researchers have utilized two different models for this project: a two-level quasi-geostrophic model to study intraseasonal variability, anomalous circulations and the seasonal cycle, and a 10-level, multi-wave primitive equation model to validate the two-level Q-G model and examine effects of convection, surface processes, and spherical geometry. It explicitly resolves several planetary and synoptic waves and includes specific humidity (as a predicted variable), moist convection, and large-scale precipitation. In the past year researchers have concentrated on experiments with the multi-level primitive equation model. The dynamical part of that model is similar to the spectral model used by the National Meteorological Center for medium-range forecasts. The model includes parameterizations of large-scale condensation and moist convection. To test the validity of results regarding the influence of convective precipitation, researchers can use either one of two different convective schemes in the model, a Kuo convective scheme or a modified Arakawa-Schubert scheme which includes downdrafts. By choosing one or the other scheme, they can evaluate the impact of the convective parameterization on the circulation. In the past year researchers performed a variety of initial-value experiments with the primitive-equation model. Using initial conditions typical of climatological winter conditions, they examined the behavior of synoptic and planetary waves growing in moist and dry environments. Surface conditions were representative of a zonally averaged ocean. They found that moist convection associated with baroclinic wave development was confined to the subtropics.

Branscome, Lee E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

An effective multigrid method for high-speed flows

The use is considered of a multigrid method with central differencing to solve the Navier-Stokes equations for high speed flows. The time dependent form of the equations is integrated with a Runge-Kutta scheme accelerated by local time stepping and variable coefficient implicit residual smoothing. Of particular importance are the details of the numerical dissipation formulation, especially the switch between the second and fourth difference terms. Solutions are given for 2-D laminar flow over a circular cylinder and a 15 deg compression ramp.

Swanson, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An effective multigrid method for high-speed flows

Swanson, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic and structural reliability analysis of laminated composite structures based on the IPACS code

Probabilistic predictions based on the Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures (IPACS) code are presented for the material and structural response of unnotched and notched, 1M6/3501-6 Gr/Ep laminates. Comparisons of predicted and measured modulus and strength distributions are given for unnotched unidirectional, cross-ply, and quasi-isotropic laminates. The predicted modulus distributions were found to correlate well with the test results for all three unnotched laminates. Correlations of strength distributions for the unnotched laminates are judged good for the unidirectional laminate and fair for the cross-ply laminate, whereas the strength correlation for the quasi-isotropic laminate is deficient because IPACS did not yet have a progressive failure capability. The paper also presents probabilistic and structural reliability analysis predictions for the strain concentration factor (SCF) for an open-hole, quasi-isotropic laminate subjected to longitudinal tension. A special procedure was developed to adapt IPACS for the structural reliability analysis. The reliability results show the importance of identifying the most significant random variables upon which the SCF depends, and of having accurate scatter values for these variables.

Sobel, Larry↗

NASA NTRS1992

TOVS Pathfinder product validation and intercomparison

Validation and intercomparison is an essential part of the Pathfinder program. Since its organization within the International TOVS Working Group, the TOVS community has continuously emphasized this aspect of the product retrieval problem. In the previous sections of this report, the TOVS Pathfinder SWG has recommended a careful and coherent reorganization and archiving of TOVS radiance data, and three distinct pathways for deriving product variables from this TOVS radiance archive. The importance in taking this multiple path approach to creating climate datasets rests in our firm belief that there is now global 'absolute truth' data for any of the derived physical parameters. Each of the selected methods is based upon a different set of assumptions. The challenge in interpreting Pathfinder data is to determine what alterations in the physical attributes of the environment contribute to evidence of global change extracted from observed or derived Pathfinder datasets. The Pathfinder validation and intercomparison activity must include validation of the forward problem, by which one calculates an estimate of upwelling radiance information from given earth and atmospheric data, and validation of the inverse problem, by which one calculates estimates of earth and atmospheric information from given upwelling satellite spectral radiance data.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1993

Production of long-term global water vapor and liquid water data set using ultra-fast methods to assimilate multi-satellite and radiosonde observations

During the next decade, many programs and experiments under the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) will utilize present day and future data sets to improve our understanding of the role of moisture in climate, and its interaction with other variables such as clouds and radiation. An important element of GEWEX will be the GEWEX Water Vapor Project (GVaP), which will eventually initiate a routine, real-time assimilation of the highest quality, global water vapor data sets including information gained from future data collection systems, both ground and space based. The comprehensive global water vapor data set being produced by METSAT Inc. uses a combination of ground-based radiosonde data, and infrared and microwave satellite retrievals. This data is needed to provide the desired foundation from which future GEWEX-related research, such as GVaP, can build. The first year of this project was designed to use a combination of the best available atmospheric moisture data including: radiosonde (balloon/acft/rocket), HIRS/MSU (TOVS) retrievals, and SSM/I retrievals, to produce a one-year, global, high resolution data set of integrated column water vapor (precipitable water) with a horizontal resolution of 1 degree, and a temporal resolution of one day. The time period of this pilot product was to be det3ermined by the availability of all the input data sets. January 1988 through December 1988 were selected. In addition, a sample of vertically integrated liquid water content (LWC) was to be produced with the same temporal and spatial parameters. This sample was to be produced over ocean areas only. Three main steps are followed to produce a merged water vapor and liquid water product. Input data from Radiosondes, TOVS, and SSMI/I is quality checked in steps one and two. Processing is done in step two to generate individual total column water vapor and liquid water data sets. The third step, and final processing task, involves merging the individual output products to produce the integrated water vapor product. A final quality control is applied to the merged data sets.

Vonderhaar, T. H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Atlas of quasar energy distributions

We present an atlas of the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of normal, nonblazar, quasars over the whole available range (radio to 10 keV X-rays) of the electromagnetic spectrum. The primary (UVSX) sample includes 47 quasars for which the spectral energy distributions include X-ray spectral indices and UV data. Of these, 29 are radio quiet, and 18 are radio loud. The SEDs are presented both in figures and in tabular form, with additional tabular material published on CD-ROM. Previously unpublished observational data for a second set of quasars excluded from the primary sample are also tabulated. The effects of host galaxy starlight contamination and foreground extinction on the UVSX sample are considered and the sample is used to investigate the range of SED properties. Of course, the properties we derive are influenced strongly by the selection effects induced by quasar discovery techniques. We derive the mean energy distribution (MED) for radio-loud and radio-quiet objects and present the bolometric corrections derived from it. We note, however, that the dispersion about this mean is large (approximately one decade for both the infrared and ultraviolet components when the MED is normalized at the near-infrared inflection). At least part of the dispersion in the ultraviolet may be due to time variability, but this is unlikely to be important in the infrared. The existence of such a large dispersion indicates that the MED reflects only some of the properties of quasars and so should be used only with caution.

Elvis, Martin↗

NASA NTRS1995

Novel composites for wing and fuselage applications

Probabilistic predictions based on the IPACS code are presented for the material and structural response of unnotched and notched, IM6/3501-6 Gr/Ep laminates. Comparisons of predicted and measured modulus and strength distributions are given for unnotched unidirectional, cross-ply and quasi-isotropic laminates. The predicted modulus distributions were found to correlate well with the test results for all three unnotched laminates. Correlations of strength distributions for the unnotched laminates are judged good for the unidirectional laminate and fair for the cross-ply laminate, whereas the strength correlation for the quasi-isotropic laminate is judged poor because IPACS did not have a progressive failure capability at the time this work was performed. The report also presents probabilistic and structural reliability analysis predictions for the strain concentration factor (SCF) for an open-hole, quasi-isotropic laminate subjected to longitudinal tension. A special procedure was developed to adapt IPACS for the structural reliability analysis. The reliability results show the importance of identifying the most significant random variables upon which the SCF depends, and of having accurate scatter values for these variables.

Sobel, L. H.↗