Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variability prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1987

Solar irradiance change and special longitudes due to r-modes

Sluggish global oscillations, having a periodicity of months and trapped in the sun's convection zone, modulate the amount of energy reaching earth and seem to impose some large-scale order on the distribution of solar surface features. These recently recognized oscillations (r-modes) increase the predictability of solar changes and may improve understanding of rotation and variability in other stars. Most of the 13 periodicities ranging from 13 to 85 days that are caused by r-modes can be detected in Nimbus 7 observations of solar irradiance during 3 years at solar maximum. These modes may also bear on the classical question of persistent longitudes of high solar activity.

Wolff, Charles L.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Statistics and dynamics of persistent anomalies

Persistent anomalies with recurrent spatial patterns play an important role in the atmosphere's low-frequency variability. A connection between statistical and dynamical methods of description and prediction of persistent anomalies is established by computing and analyzing the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in a simple deterministic model, on the one hand, and in Southern Hemisphere geopotential heights, on the other. The dynamical model is governed by the fully nonlinear, equivalent-barotropic vorticity equation on the sphere, with simplified forcing, dissipation and topography. The Southern Hemisphere data consist in gridded daily maps of 500 mb heights from June 1972 to July 1983. Two types of persistent anomalies appear in this time series, both having a strong wavenumber-three component; they differ by the value of the constant phase of this wave and by the strength of the wavenumber-one component. The first two EOFs bear a striking resemblance to these two patterns. It is concluded that the dynamical interpretation of EOFs is their pointing from the time mean to the most populated regions of the system's phase space. Pursuing this interpretation, a Markov-chain formulation of transitions from one persistent anomaly regime to another is introduced, and the implications for long-range forecasting are discussed.

Mo, Kingtse C.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Intraseasonal and interannual variations of tropical convection - A possible link between the 40-50 day oscillation and ENSO?

Twelve-years of NOAA data on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are used to trace intraseasonal variations of tropical convection by examining the spatial patterns of OLR variance in the 1-5 day, 20-70 day, and longer-than-180 day bands separately for the northern summer and winter. Based on these patterns, the relative importance of these bands are evaluated and the natural variability of the climate signal and the geographical distribution of potential predictability is assessed. The results of empirical orthogonal functional analyses show that multiple time scales exist in the most dominant patterns of tropical convection variation. These time scales can be identified with those of the 40-50-day oscillation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, and the annual cycle. Interpretation of the results in terms of possible interaction between these various time scales is presented.

Lau, Ka-Ming↗
NASA NTRS1991

Analysis of superconducting electromagnetic finite elements based on a magnetic vector potential variational principle

Electromagnetic finite elements are extended based on a variational principle that uses the electromagnetic four potential as primary variable. The variational principle is extended to include the ability to predict a nonlinear current distribution within a conductor. The extension of this theory is first done on a normal conductor and tested on two different problems. In both problems, the geometry remains the same, but the material properties are different. The geometry is that of a 1-D infinite wire. The first problem is merely a linear control case used to validate the new theory. The second problem is made up of linear conductors with varying conductivities. Both problems perform well and predict current densities that are accurate to within a few ten thousandths of a percent of the exact values. The fourth potential is then removed, leaving only the magnetic vector potential, and the variational principle is further extended to predict magnetic potentials, magnetic fields, the number of charge carriers, and the current densities within a superconductor. The new element produces good results for the mean magnetic field, the vector potential, and the number of superconducting charge carriers despite a relatively high system condition number. The element did not perform well in predicting the current density. Numerical problems inherent to this formulation are explored and possible remedies to produce better current predicting finite elements are presented.

Schuler, James J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The NASA Radiation Health Program

The NASA program for determining the impact of cosmic radiation on health is described in terms of its long-term goal of reducing the uncertainty of radiation-model prediction to +/- 25 percent by 2010. The Space Radiation Health Program (SRHP) is intended to address fundamental issues for establishing a scientific basis for human radiation protection: (1) the prediction of the probability of biological effects from radiation; (2) the reduction of uncertainty in predicted highly charged energetic particles; and (3) the characterization of background flux from Galactic cosmic rays. Another key objective is to develop related technologies for ground- and space-based solar monitoring to predict events involving solar energetic particles. Although substantial uncertainties are involved in the prediction of such events, the SRHP is essential for determining crucial variables related to launching mass and humans into orbit.

Nicogossian, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Application of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry to ocean dynamics and geophysics

We will analyze the TOPEX/POSEIDON data using techniques developed for Geosat, although the more accurate TOPEX/POSEIDON data will enable a wider range of problems to be addressed. Our proposed investigations will have five distinct areas: (1) a description of global sea level variability; (2) tropical ocean dynamics; (3) coupled models for El Nino prediction; (4) structure of the lithosphere; and (5) global tide model improvement.

Douglas, Bruce↗
NASA NTRS1993

The 1991 V603 Aquilae campaign - Superhumps and P-dots

The results are reported of an extensive 1991 campaign to determine an accurate value of the period of the old nova V603 Aquilae, free from aliasing, in at least one season. Phase drift of +/- 0.3 cycles around the mean period is present on a time scale of about six months. The period is shown to be unstable. There is an interesting resemblance of the 0.146 day photometric signal to the 'superhumps' of dwarf novae. However, the light variations are irregular and not similar to those of dwarf novae. The relationship between observed orbital and superhump period is studied, and it is predicted that V603 Aql is the first of many noneruptive cataclysmic variables which will be recognized as showing superhumps.

Patterson, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS1996

Mathematical Model Of Variable-Polarity Plasma Arc Welding

Mathematical model of variable-polarity plasma arc (VPPA) welding process developed for use in predicting characteristics of welds and thus serves as guide for selection of process parameters. Parameters include welding electric currents in, and durations of, straight and reverse polarities; rates of flow of plasma and shielding gases; and sizes and relative positions of welding electrode, welding orifice, and workpiece.

Hung, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

An Experimental and Computational Investigation of a Translating Throat Single Expansion-Ramp Nozzle

A translating throat single expansion-ramp nozzle (SERN) concept was designed to improve the off-design performance of a SERN with a large, fixed expansion ratio. The concept of translating the nozzle throat provides the SERN with a variable expansion ratio. An experimental and computational study was conducted to predict and verify the internal performance of this concept. Three nozzles with expansion ratios designed for low, intermediate, and high Mach number operating conditions were tested in the Jet-Exit Test Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. Each nozzle was tested with a concave and a convex geometric expansion ramp surface design. Internal nozzle performance, paint-oil flow and focusing Schlieren flow visualization were obtained for nozzle pressure ratios (NPR's) up to 13. The Navier-Stokes code, PAB3D, with a k-epsilon turbulence model was utilized to verify experimental results at selected NPR's and to predict the performance at conditions unattainable in the test facility. Two-dimensional simulations were computed with near static free-stream conditions and at nozzle pressure ratios of 5, 9, and 13 for the concave ramp, low Mach number configuration and at the design NPR of 102 for the concave ramp, high Mach number configuration. Remarkable similarities between predicted and experimental flow characteristics, as well as performance quantities, were obtained.

Deere, Karen A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

An experimental and computational investigation of a translating throat single expansion-ramp nozzle

A translating throat single expansion-ramp nozzle (SERN) concept was designed to improve the off-design performance of a SERN with a large, fixed expansion ratio. The concept of translating the nozzle throat provides the SERN with a variable expansion ratio. An experimental and computational study was conducted to predict and verify the internal performance of this concept. Three nozzles with expansion ratios designed for low, intermediate, and high Mach number operating conditions were tested in the Jet-Exit Test Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. Each nozzle was tested with a concave and a convex geometric expansion ramp surface design. Internal nozzle performance, paint-oil flow and focusing Schlieren flow visualization were obtained for nozzle pressure ratios (NPR's) up to 13. The Navier-Stokes code, PAB3D, with a k-epsilon turbulence model was utilized to verify experimental results at selected NPRs and to predict the performance at conditions unattainable in the test facility. Two-dimensional simulations were computed with near static free-stream conditions and at nozzle pressure ratios of 5, 9, and 13 for the concave ramp, low Mach number configuration and at the design NPR of 102 for the concave ramp, high Mach number configuration. Remarkable similarities between predicted and experimental flow characteristics, as well as performance quantities, were obtained.

Deere, Karen A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Neural Network Models of Simple Mechanical Systems Illustrating the Feasibility of Accelerated Life Testing

A complete evaluation of the tribological characteristics of a given material/mechanical system is a time-consuming operation since the friction and wear process is extremely systems sensitive. As a result, experimental designs (i.e., Latin Square, Taguchi) have been implemented in an attempt to not only reduce the total number of experimental combinations needed to fully characterize a material/mechanical system, but also to acquire life data for a system without having to perform an actual life test. Unfortunately, these experimental designs still require a great deal of experimental testing and the output does not always produce meaningful information. In order to further reduce the amount of experimental testing required, this study employs a computer neural network model to investigate different material/mechanical systems. The work focuses on the modeling of the wear behavior, while showing the feasibility of using neural networks to predict life data. The model is capable of defining which input variables will influence the tribological behavior of the particular material/mechanical system being studied based on the specifications of the overall system.

Fusaro, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Test and Analysis of Composite Hat Stringer Pull-off Test Specimens

Hat stringer pull-off tests were performed to evaluate the delamination failure mechanisms in the flange region for a rod-reinforced hat stringer section. A special test fixture was used to pull the hat off the stringer while reacting the pull-off load through roller supports at both stringer flanges. Microscopic examinations of the failed specimens revealed that failure occurred at the ply termination in the flange area where the flange of the stiffener is built up by adding 45/-45 tape plies on the top surface. Test results indicated that the as-manufactured microstructure in the flange region has a strong influence on the delamination initiation and the associated pull-off loads. Finite element models were created for each specimen with a detailed mesh based on micrographs of the critical location. A fracture mechanics approach and a mixed mode delamination criterion were used to predict the onset of delamination and the pull-off load. By modeling the critical local details of each specimen from micrographs, the model was able to accurately predict the hat stringer pull-off loads and replicate the variability in the test results.

Li, Jian↗
NASA NTRS2001

Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on Agricultural and Marine Ecosystems

The El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of global interannual climate variability, and seems to be the only mode for which current prediction methods are more skillful than climatology or persistence. The Zebiak and Cane intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been in use for ENSO prediction for more than a decade, with notable success. However, the sole dependence of its original initialization scheme and the improved initialization on wind fields derived from merchant ship observations proved to be a liability during 1997/1998 El Nino event: the deficiencies of wind observations prevented the oceanic component of the model from reaching the realistic state during the year prior to the event, and the forecast failed. Our work on the project was concentrated on the use of satellite data for improving various stages of ENSO prediction technology: model initialization, bias correction, and data assimilation. Close collaboration with other teams of the IDS project was maintained throughout.

Cane, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1961

Study of the Use of a Terminal Controller Technique for Reentry Guidance of a Capsule-Type Vehicle

A study has been made of the use o f a terminal controller technique i n the guidance of a high-drag, variable-lift reentry vehicle to a desired landing point. The technique uses linearized equations of motion attained by the perturbation of the dependent variables from those of a reference trajectory. The guidance system continuously predicts the terminal range error and uses this error to control the angle of attack of the vehicle in an on-off manner until the predicted range error is within +-O.1 degrees of the required arc or +-6.9 miles.

Foudriat, Edwin C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission: An Overview

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission that uses advanced precipitation radar with a constellation of passive microwave radiometers to improve the accuracy, sampling, and coverage of global precipitation measurements. It is a science mission with integrated applications goals focusing on (1) advancing the knowledge of the global watedenergy cycle variability and freshwater availability and (2) improving weather, climate, and hydrological prediction capabilities through more accurate and frequent measurements of global precipitation. The GPM Mission is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), with opportunities for additional domestic and international partners in satellite constellation buildup and ground validation activities. The GPM Core satellite, which carries a JAXA-provided dual-frequency precipitation radar and a NASAprovided microwave radiometers with high-frequency capabilities for light rain and frozen precipitation measurements, is expected to be launched in the 2010 timeframe. The GPM Core will serve as a precipitation physics laboratory and a calibration system for improved precipitation measurements by a heterogeneous constellation of dedicated and operational microwave radiometers. NASA also plans to provide a "wild card" constellation member with a copy of the radiometer carried on the GPM Core to be placed in an orbit that maximizes the coverage and sampling of the constellation. An overview of the GPM mission concept, instrument capabilities, ground validation plans, and the expected scientific and societal benefits will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission: Overview and Status

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission to unify and advance global precipitation measurements from a constellation of dedicated and operational microwave sensors. The GPM concept centers on the deployment of a Core Spacecraft in a non-Sun-synchronous orbit at 65' inclination carrying a dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and a multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer (GMI) with high-frequency capabilities to serve as a precipitation physics observatory and calibration standard for the constellation radiometers. The baseline GPM constellation is envisioned to comprise conical-scanning microwave imagers (e.g., GMI, SSMIS, AMSR, MIS, MADRAS, GPM-Brazil) augmented with cross-track microwave temperaturelhumidity sounders (e.g., MHS, ATMS) over land. In addition to the Core Satellite, the GPM Mission will contribute a second GMI to be flown in a low-inclination (approx.40deg) non-Sun-synchronous orbit to improve near real-time monitoring of hurricanes. GPM is a science mission with integrated applications goals aimed at (1) advancing the knowledge of the global waterlenergy cycle variability and freshwater availability and (2) improving weather, climate, and hydrological prediction capabilities through more accurate and frequent measurements of global precipitation. The GPM Mission is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), with opportunities for additional partners in satellite constellation and ground validation activities. Within the framework of the inter-governmental Group ob Earth Observations (GEO) and Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), GPM has been identified as a cornerstone for the Precipitation Constellation (PC) being developed under the auspices of Committee of Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). The GPM Core Observatory is scheduled for launch in 201 3, followed by the launch of the GPM Low- Inclination Observatory in 2014. An overview of the GPM mission status, instrument capabilities, ground validation plans, and anticipated scientific and societal benefits will be presented.

Hou, Arthur↗
NASA NTRS2008

Contributions of TRMM and GPM to GEOSS

Two international satellite missions have a major role in the development of global precipitation data under the auspices of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) to meet the needs of several Societal Benefit Areas set forth by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO). One is the joint U.S.-Japan Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in 1997, which provides combined radar/radiometer measurements to serve as a benchmark for tropical precipitation measurements by passive microwave radiometers and has played a key role in the development of the current generation of multi-satellite global rainfall products. The other is the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission, an international satellite mission to be launched in 2013 to deliver the next-generation global precipitation observations from a constellation of dedicated and operational microwave sensors. GPM is a science mission with integrated applications goals aimed at (1) advancing the knowledge of the global water/energy cycle variability and freshwater availability and (2) improving weather, climate, and hydrological prediction capabilities through more accurate and frequent measurements of global precipitation. The GPM Mission is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), with additional partners in satellite constellation and ground validation under discussion. With NASA and JAXA science team activities providing the framework and infrastructures for international collaboration on satellite inter-calibration, retrieval algorithm development, and ground validation, GPM has been identified as the cornerstone for the development of the Precipitation Constellation for the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). An overview of current accomplishments by TRMM and anticipated contributions by GPM to GEOSS activities will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission: Overview and Status

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission to unify and advance global precipitation measurements from a constellation of dedicated and operational microwave sensors. The GPM concept centers on the deployment of a Core Spacecraft in a non-Sun-synchronous orbit at 65 degrees inclination carrying a dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and a multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer (GMI) with high-frequency capabilities to serve as a precipitation physics observatory and calibration standard for the constellation radiometers. The baseline GPM constellation is envisioned to comprise conical-scanning microwave imagers (e.g., GMI, SSMIS, AMSR, MIS, MADRAS, GPM-Brazil) augmented with cross-track microwave temperature/humidity sounders (e.g., MHS, ATMS) over land. In addition to the Core Satellite, the GPM Mission will contribute a second GMI to be flown in a low-inclination (approximately 40 deg.) non-Sun-synchronous orbit to improve near real-time monitoring of hurricanes. GPM is a science mission with integrated applications goals aimed at (1) advancing the knowledge of the global water/energy cycle variability and freshwater availability and (2) improving weather, climate, and hydrological prediction capabilities through more accurate and frequent measurements of global precipitation. The GPM Mission is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), with opportunities for additional partners in satellite constellation and ground validation activities. Within the framework of the inter-governmental Group ob Earth Observations (GEO) and Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), GPM has been identified as a cornerstone for the Precipitation Constellation (PC) being developed under the auspices of Committee of Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). The GPM Core Observatory is scheduled for launch in 2013, followed by the launch of the GPM Low-Inclination Observatory in 2014. An overview of the GPM mission status, instrument capabilities, ground validation plans, and anticipated scientific and societal benefits will be presented.

Hou, Arthur↗