Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty propagation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

Ott, L.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Extended Kalman Filter Performance on the Artemis-1 Mission

The Artemis Program is NASA’s campaign to explore the Moon and beyond. Artemis-1, the uncrewed exoLEO test flight of the Orion spacecraft, was completed in 2022. There were four navigation Extended Kalman Filters (EKFs) that are part of the Orion navigation system. The Atmospheric Extended Kalman Filter (ATMEKF) estimates the vehicle position, velocity, and attitude (referred to as the vehicle state) during the ascent and entry phases of flight. Once Orion is outside of Earths atmosphere, the Earth Orbit Extended Kalman Filter (EOEKF) and CisLunar Extended Kalman Filter (CLEKF) estimate the translational states, depending on the phase of flight, while the Attitude Extended Kalman Filter (ATTEKF) estimates the rotational state of the vehicle. The Kalman filters propagate the vehicle state forward in time using a combination of dynamics models and the output data from the Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU). The filters update the vehicle states and associated uncertainties, in the form of the covariance matrix, using pseudorange measurements from GPS (in ATMEKF/EOEKF), optical navigation measurements of the Earth or Moon (in CLEKF), and star tracker measurements (in ATTEKF). Simultaneously, the Kalman filters estimate error sources in the sensors, which are included in the state vectors as Exponentially Correlated Random Variables (ECRVs). This paper will summarize the performance of these filters during the Artemis-1 mission.

Artemis-1↗
DOE OSTI2022

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seismoacoustic Explosion Yield and Depth Estimation: Insights from the Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment

The Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE) is a chemical explosion experiment conducted in Yucca Flat at the Nevada National Security Site in 2020. The experiment included two surface detonations of ~1000 kg trinitrotoluene equivalent. The main goal of this experiment was to provide the ground-truth data for seismoacoustic wave excitation by large chemical explosions near the ground surface. The seismic and acoustic energy partitioning between the surface is strongly governed by the depth or height of explosions, and either seismic or acoustic-only analysis may have inherent ambiguity in determining explosion yield and depth simultaneously. Previous studies suggested that joint seismoacoustic analysis can resolve the trade-off and reduce the uncertainty of yield and depth estimation dramatically. Here we demonstrate the capability of seismoacoustic analysis to improve the accuracy of explosion yield and depth estimation with the LSECE data. Local acoustic wave propagation in the atmosphere can be substantially affected by constantly varying weather conditions. Consisting of two detonations before dawn and in the afternoon, LSECE provides unique data to evaluate the model accuracy of acoustic wave propagation and seismoacoustic energy partitioning depending on local atmospheric conditions. We quantitatively evaluate the accuracy of yield and depth estimation depending on atmospheric variability and the improvement achieved by the joint seismoacoustic approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Fundamental aspects of pulse phase-locked loop technology-based methods for measurement of ultrasonic velocity

A new instrument based on a constant frequency pulse phase-locked loop concept has been developed to accurately measure the ultrasonic phase velocity in condensed matter. Measurements of the sound velocity in ultrapure water are reported in which both damped and undamped transducers are used with the instrument together with reflectors of various thicknesses placed in the sound propagation path. An analysis of measurements made with the new instrument and similar measurements, taken under identical experimental conditions, using a popular variable frequency pulsed-phase-locked loop instrument is reported. Uncertainties in both measurement systems are analyzed and discussed. A method for measuring inherent phase shifts, not addressed by previous investigations, within the variable frequency pulsed phase-locked loop system and a derivation of the equations that govern the overall use of variable frequency systems using phase-sensitive comparisons are presented. The effects of a finite pulse length on the measurements of phase velocity in dispersive media are addressed in detail.

Yost, William T.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying uncertainty in physics-based predictions of rare-isotope production cross sections via Bayesian-inspired model averaging across nuclear mass tables

Accurate prediction of fragmentation cross sections is essential for rare-isotope beam production, planning new-isotope searches, and designing experiments to study the most exotic regions of the nuclear chart. However, existing reaction models and phenomenological cross-section parametrizations often exhibit significant deviations over broad regions of mass and charge. In this work, a Bayesian-inspired model-averaging framework is developed to combine abrasion-ablation (AA) calculations based on multiple nuclear mass tables into a single statistically weighted estimate. For the calibrated systems, the model weights are assigned empirically according to the relative quality of fit to measured cross sections, thereby reducing systematic model bias while preserving the underlying physics content of the AA description. The weights are constrained using proton-rich fragmentation data for the 78 Kr and 124 Xe projectiles. The resulting parameter trends are then propagated to the 92 Mo and 144 Sm systems through a controlled scaling procedure. In the present implementation, the excitation-energy prescription is fixed, while the averaging is performed across nuclear-mass inputs; the framework provides both weighted cross sections and associated uncertainty estimates. Applied to proton-rich fragmentation, the present approach provides a practical basis for interpolation and limited extrapolation in regions relevant to rare-isotope production. The resulting predictions are used to assess the production of very proton-rich nuclei, and candidate new isotopes are discussed.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal design of acoustic metamaterial cloaks under uncertainty

In this work, we consider the problem of optimal design of an acoustic cloak under uncertainty and develop scalable approximation and optimization methods to solve this problem. The design variable is taken as an infinite-dimensional spatially-varying field that represents the material property, while an additive infinite-dimensional random field represents the variability of the material property or the manufacturing error. Discretization of this optimal design problem results in high-dimensional design variables and uncertain parameters. To solve this problem, we develop a computational approach based on a Taylor approximation and an approximate Newton method for optimization, which is based on a Hessian derived at the mean of the random field. We show our approach is scalable with respect to the dimension of both the design variables and uncertain parameters, in the sense that the necessary number of acoustic wave propagations is essentially independent of these dimensions, for numerical experiments with up to one million design variables and half a million uncertain parameters. Additionally, we demonstrate that, using our computational approach, an optimal design of the acoustic cloak that is robust to material uncertainty is achieved in a tractable manner. The optimal design under uncertainty problem is posed and solved for the classical circular obstacle surrounded by a ring-shaped cloaking region, subjected to both a single-direction single-frequency incident wave and multiple-direction multiple-frequency incident waves. Finally, we apply the method to a deterministic large-scale optimal cloaking problem with complex geometry, to demonstrate that the approximate Newton method’s Hessian computation is viable for large, complex problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking Cylindrical Blast Wave Theory Against the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry

Weak shock theory based on cylindrical blast waves has been used to interpret meteor infrasound, but it has not been systematically benchmarked against a non-ablating hypersonic source with independently known parameters. The objective of this study is not to propose a new theoretical framework, but to evaluate the operational validity of the existing suite of blast radius formulations against a high-fidelity ground truth dataset. The OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule reentry on 24 September 2023 provides such a benchmark because the capsule geometry, trajectory, and infrasound emission points are constrained from mission data and ray tracing, reducing source-side uncertainty associated with ablation. Using observations from 39 infrasound stations, this benchmarking study evaluates six published blast radius (${R}_{0}$ ) formulations and three weak-shock transition coefficients ( C ) within a stratified atmospheric propagation model to predict signal period and peak overpressure. The benchmarking identifies the Sakurai formulation as the best-performing formulation for non-ablating bodies, with the Jones/Plooster formulation performing comparably when a physically appropriate C is adopted. Sakurai and Jones/Plooster yield linear-period median absolute percentage residuals of 9% and 11%, respectively. The period predictions show only weak sensitivity to C at these propagation distances. The Mach-diameter approximation commonly used in meteor studies overestimates ${R}_{0}$ by more than a factor of 3 in the absence of ablation. Finally, these results establish a performance baseline for applying cylindrical blast wave theory to effectively non-ablating hypersonic bodies and demonstrate that the signal period is a robust observable for constraining ${R}_{0}$.

atmospheric entry↗
NASA NTRS2012

Locating the LCROSS Impact Craters

The Lunar CRater Observations and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) mission impacted a spent Centaur rocket stage into a permanently shadowed region near the lunar south pole. The Sheperding Spacecraft (SSC) separated approx. 9 hours before impact and performed a small braking maneuver in order to observe the Centaur impact plume, looking for evidence of water and other volatiles, before impacting itself. This paper describes the registration of imagery of the LCROSS impact region from the mid- and near-infrared cameras onboard the SSC, as well as from the Goldstone radar. We compare the Centaur impact features, positively identified in the first two, and with a consistent feature in the third, which are interpreted as a 20 m diameter crater surrounded by a 160 m diameter ejecta region. The images are registered to Lunar Reconnaisance Orbiter (LRO) topographical data which allows determination of the impact location. This location is compared with the impact location derived from ground-based tracking and propagation of the spacecraft's trajectory and with locations derived from two hybrid imagery/trajectory methods. The four methods give a weighted average Centaur impact location of −84.6796 deg, −48.7093 deg, with a 1σ uncertainty of 115 m along latitude, and 44 m along longitude, just 146 m from the target impact site. Meanwhile, the trajectory-derived SSC impact location is −84.719 deg, −49.61 deg, with a 1 alpha uncertainty of 3 m along the Earth vector and 75 m orthogonal to that, 766 m from the target location and 2.803 km south-west of the Centaur impact. We also detail the Centaur impact angle and SSC instrument pointing errors. Six high-level LCROSS mission requirements are shown to be met by wide margins. We hope that these results facilitate further analyses of the LCROSS experiment data and follow-up observations of the impact region

LCROSS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Earth Observing System Covariance Realism

The purpose of covariance realism is to properly size a primary object's covariance in order to add validity to the calculation of the probability of collision. The covariance realism technique in this paper consists of three parts: collection/calculation of definitive state estimates through orbit determination, calculation of covariance realism test statistics at each covariance propagation point, and proper assessment of those test statistics. An empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) method is employed to determine if a covariance is properly sized by comparing the empirical distribution of Mahalanobis distance calculations to the hypothesized parent 3-DoF chi-squared distribution. To realistically size a covariance for collision probability calculations, this study uses a state noise compensation algorithm that adds process noise to the definitive epoch covariance to account for uncertainty in the force model. Process noise is added until the GOF tests pass a group significance level threshold. The results of this study indicate that when outliers attributed to persistently high or extreme levels of solar activity are removed, the aforementioned covariance realism compensation method produces a tuned covariance with up to 80 to 90% of the covariance propagation timespan passing (against a 60% minimum passing threshold) the GOF tests-a quite satisfactory and useful result.

Realism↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Yield Estimation of the August 2020 Beirut Explosion by Using Physics‐Based Propagation Simulations of Regional Infrasound

Abstract The August 2020 Beirut explosion is the largest single‐fired ammonium nitrate explosion documented in history. The massive explosion excited loud infrasound in the atmosphere, and clear waveforms were recorded by a regional infrasound array at an epicentral distance of 100 km, allowing for accurate measurements of explosion energy. We estimate the explosion size based on the infrasound waveform inversion. Unlike conventional inversions using empirical models, we perform full 3‐D finite‐difference simulations to obtain a physics‐based propagation model for the inversion. Accurate numerical modeling of infrasound is challenging as the propagation is substantially affected by the turbulent atmosphere. Instead of a single deterministic prediction, we provide a range of waveform predictions by running multiple simulations with stochastic weather forecast models, which allows for comprehensive uncertainty analysis of numerical modeling and estimated yields. Finally, we expand the yield estimation technique for seismoacoustic analysis and demonstrate the substantial advantage of the joint approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

OSO 8 observational limits to the acoustic coronal heating mechanism

An improved analysis of time-resolved line profiles of the C IV resonance line at 1548 A has been used to test the acoustic wave hypothesis of solar coronal heating. It is shown that the observed motions and brightness fluctuations are consistent with the existence of acoustic waves. Specific account is taken of the effect of photon statistics on the observed velocities, and a test is devised to determine whether the motions represent propagating or evanescent waves. It is found that on the average about as much energy is carried upward as downward such that the net acoustic flux density is statistically consistent with zero. The statistical uncertainty in this null result is three orders of magnitue lower than the flux level needed to heat the corona.

Bruner, E. C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Charged-Particle Calibration Of Spacecraft-Ranging Signals

Report discusses determination of effective densities of electrically charged particles along paths of microwave signals transmitted to and from spacecraft and use of those densities to calibrate measured signal-propagation times, used to compute distances between ground stations and spacecraft. Oriented toward selection of method of calibration optimal with respect to three criteria: minimization of range error and of root-mean-square uncertainty in range error; minimization of amount, complexity, and/or cost of equipment; and capability of calibrating changes in group velocities of signals on ranging channel.

Nguyen, Tien M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Assessment of Current Jet Noise Prediction Capabilities

An assessment was made of the capability of jet noise prediction codes over a broad range of jet flows, with the objective of quantifying current capabilities and identifying areas requiring future research investment. Three separate codes in NASA s possession, representative of two classes of jet noise prediction codes, were evaluated, one empirical and two statistical. The empirical code is the Stone Jet Noise Module (ST2JET) contained within the ANOPP aircraft noise prediction code. It is well documented, and represents the state of the art in semi-empirical acoustic prediction codes where virtual sources are attributed to various aspects of noise generation in each jet. These sources, in combination, predict the spectral directivity of a jet plume. A total of 258 jet noise cases were examined on the ST2JET code, each run requiring only fractions of a second to complete. Two statistical jet noise prediction codes were also evaluated, JeNo v1, and Jet3D. Fewer cases were run for the statistical prediction methods because they require substantially more resources, typically a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solution of the jet, volume integration of the source statistical models over the entire plume, and a numerical solution of the governing propagation equation within the jet. In the evaluation process, substantial justification of experimental datasets used in the evaluations was made. In the end, none of the current codes can predict jet noise within experimental uncertainty. The empirical code came within 2dB on a 1/3 octave spectral basis for a wide range of flows. The statistical code Jet3D was within experimental uncertainty at broadside angles for hot supersonic jets, but errors in peak frequency and amplitude put it out of experimental uncertainty at cooler, lower speed conditions. Jet3D did not predict changes in directivity in the downstream angles. The statistical code JeNo,v1 was within experimental uncertainty predicting noise from cold subsonic jets at all angles, but did not predict changes with heating of the jet and did not account for directivity changes at supersonic conditions. Shortcomings addressed here give direction for future work relevant to the statistical-based prediction methods. A full report will be released as a chapter in a NASA publication assessing the state of the art in aircraft noise prediction.

Hunter, Craid A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Chemical Data Assimilation: A Case Study of Solar Occultation Data From the Atlas 1 Mission of the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy Experiment

A key advantage of using data assimilation is the propagation of information from data-rich regions to data-poor regions, which is particularly relevant to the use of solar occultation data such as from ATMOS. For the first time an in depth uncertainty analyses is included in a photochemical model-data intercomparison including observation, representativeness, and theoretical uncertainty. Chemical data assimilation of solar occultation measurements can be used to reconstruct full diurnal cycles and to evaluate their chemical self-consistency. This paper considers as an example the measurements made by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy Experiment (ATMOS) instrument Atlas-1 during March 1992 for a vertical profile flow tracking coordinates at an equivalent PV latitude of 38 S. ATMOS was chosen because it simultaneously observes several species. This equivalent PV latitude was chosen as it was where ATMOS n observed the atmosphere's composition over the largest range of altitudes. A single vertical profile was used so that the detailed diurnal information that assimilation utilizes could be highlighted. There is generally good self-consistency between the ATMOS Atlas-1 observations and photochemical theory.

Lary, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Non-Gaussian Error Volumes on Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

An understanding of how an initially Gaussian error volume becomes non-Gaussian over time is an important consideration for space-vehicle conjunction assessment. Traditional assumptions applied to the error volume artificially suppress the true non-Gaussian nature of the space-vehicle position uncertainties. For typical conjunction assessment objects, representation of the error volume by a state error covariance matrix in a Cartesian reference frame is a more significant limitation than is the assumption of linearized dynamics for propagating the error volume. In this study, the impact of each assumption is examined and isolated for each point in the volume. Limitations arising from representing the error volume in a Cartesian reference frame is corrected by employing a Monte Carlo approach to probability of collision (Pc), using equinoctial samples from the Cartesian position covariance at the time of closest approach (TCA) between the pair of space objects. A set of actual, higher risk (Pc >= 10 (exp -4)+) conjunction events in various low-Earth orbits using Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. The impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on Pc for these cases is minimal, even when the deviation from a Gaussian distribution is significant.

Ghrist, Richard W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of point spread function higher moments error on weak gravitational lensing – II. A comprehensive study

ABSTRACT Weak lensing is one of the most powerful probes for dark matter and dark energy science, although it faces increasing challenges in controlling systematic uncertainties as the statistical errors become smaller. The point spread function (PSF) needs to be precisely modeled to avoid systematic error on the weak lensing measurements. The weak lensing biases induced by errors in the PSF model second moments, i.e. its size and shape, are well-studied. However, Zhang et al. showed that errors in the higher moments of the PSF may also be a significant source of systematics for upcoming weak lensing surveys. Therefore, this work comprehensively investigate the modelling quality of PSF moments from the 3rd to 6th order, and propagate the PSFEx higher moments modelling error in the HSC survey data set to the weak lensing shear–shear correlation functions and their cosmological analyses. The overall multiplicative shear bias associated with errors in PSF higher moments can cause an ∼0.1σ shift on the cosmological parameters for LSST Y10, while the associated additive biases can induce 1σ uncertainties in cosmology parameter inference for LSST Y10, if not accounted. We compare the PSFEx model with PSF in Full FOV, and find similar performance in modelling the PSF higher moments. We conclude that PSF higher moment errors of the future PSF models should be reduced from those in current methods, otherwise needed to be explicitly modeled in the weak lensing analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗