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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Low Activity Waste Glass Optimization with Property Models from Machine Learning, Part 2: Experimental Validation and Active Learning

The United States Department of Energy is responsible for managing legacy nuclear waste stored in underground tanks at the Hanford Site. To treat the waste, it is planned as the current baseline to separately vitrify low-activity waste (LAW) and high-level waste fractions. Previously, machine learning (ML) based glass property models (e.g., chemical durability, viscosity, electrical conductivity and SO3 solubility) were developed with prediction uncertainties. A waste glass optimization approach was then established to enable the capability of using these ML models in LAW glass formulation. In this study, the previous ML models were first experimentally validated, and the results were incorporated back into the database to update the ML models. The updated models and formulations showed increased waste loading while reducing the failure rate, demonstrating improved predictive accuracy, reduced uncertainties, and the effectiveness of active learning in guiding high-dimensional, nonlinear LAW glass design. This represents the first experimental validation of ML based LAW glass formulation, with practical benefits such as higher waste loading, shorter mission duration, and lower operational risk.

Lu, Xiaonan (ORCID:0000000179708148)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Initial Delayed Critical Configuration of SHEBA I and Subcritical Measurements by Californium Source-Driven Noise Analysis

In September 1980, the initial delayed critical configuration of the Solution High-Energy Burst Assembly (SHEBA I) was assembled, and the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) staff performed near critical and subcritical measurements using the californium source-driven noise analysis (CSDNA) method at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Critical Experiments Facility. An unreflected 56 cm outside diameter stainless-steel cylindrical tank was partially filled with uranyl fluoride solution (235U enrichment was 4.95 wt %) until delayed criticality was achieved. Then, measurements were performed for various fuel solution heights from delayed critical to 60% of the height required for delayed criticality. The stainless-steel tank had an inside diameter of 54.6 cm and a height of 105 cm and was partially (20–36.5 cm) filled with an aqueous solution of uranyl fluoride (with a density of 2.162 g/cm 3 ). The density of the uranium in solution was 1.042 g/cm 3 , and the solution had a H/U atomic ratio of 20.43. The tank had a 6.35 mm wall thickness and an axial reentrant tube with an inside diameter of 6.02 cm and wall thickness of 0.165 cm. The tank was essentially unreflected on the top and sides because it was in a thin metal shed. The reactivity of the near–delayed critical configuration was −10.4 cents, which corresponds to a k eff value of 0.99922. In addition to the CSDNA measurements, the prompt neutron decay constants were determined from break frequency noise analysis (BNFA) measurements. The subcritical neutron multiplication factors from CSDNA and BFNA compared extremely well. These data can be used as the basis of International Nuclear Criticality Safety Evaluation benchmark for the near-critical configuration, and the k eff values at various subcritical configurations can be used as subcritical benchmarks. Furthermore, the measured prompt neutron decay constants can be used as reactor physics benchmarks. This report documents the experimental information for the measurements performed so that, at a later date, researchers could perform the required uncertainty and calculational analyses and documentation to use these data for an International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Program (ICSBEP) or Nuclear Energy Agency benchmarks. The measured prompt neutron decay constants can be used as the basis of a benchmark for the International Reactor Physics Evaluation Program (IRPhEP). The data from these measurements are available from the ORNL Records Management Services Department, and the logbook is available from ICSBEP at Idaho National Laboratory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2003

Radiation risk and human space exploration

Radiation protection is essential to enable humans to live and work safely in space. Predictions about the nature and magnitude of the risks posed by space radiation are subject to very large uncertainties. Prudent use of worst-case scenarios may impose unacceptable constraints on shielding mass for spacecraft or habitats, tours of duty of crews on Space Station, and on the radius and duration of sorties on planetary surfaces. The NASA Space Radiation Health Program has been devised to develop the knowledge required to accurately predict and to efficiently manage radiation risk. The knowledge will be acquired by means of a peer-reviewed, largely ground-based and investigator-initiated, basic science research program. The NASA Strategic Plan to accomplish these objectives in a manner consistent with the high priority assigned to the protection and health maintenance of crews will be presented. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimating Everglades Peat Reserves and Losses on a Landscape-Scale

The Florida Everglades formed from sawgrass and other aquatic plant remains that have accumulated over thousands of years and is a patterned peatland. The region was initially drained for agricultural and urban development in the late 1800s by the lowering of Lake Okeechobee water levels through canal drainage. Over the course of the past century, the Everglades has further been altered by the construction of canals and levees to provide control of Lake Okeechobee and Everglades water levels. The drainage has caused the loss of much of the peat of the Everglades by peat fires and microbial oxidation, much of it occurring between the 1880s and the 1950s. Plans for Everglades restoration are designed to provide additional water to flow through the remaining Everglades. Additional water into the Everglades would prevent further peat loss by reducing oxidation and encouraging the accretion of peat that has been lost. This potentially could result in the sequestration of significant quantities of atmospheric carbon. We used historic records to determine how much peat was there originally and how much has been lost. Over the past century and a half, approximately 50% of the original Everglades has been lost to agricultural and urban development. In addition, much of the peat in the remaining Everglades Protection Area has been lost. We used Geographic Information Systems technologies to determine the volume and mass of peat, the mass of carbon for each of the predrainage landscapes as well as the current Everglades regions. To do this, historical and current surveys within the Everglades were used to create elevation maps. With these maps, along with a bedrock contour map of south Florida, and soils data from the USEPA, we estimated Everglades peat characteristics. These calculations provide rough, quantitative estimates of the historical Everglades, its current condition, and the changes in the peat soil that have taken place since the 19th century. Given the uncertainties in the hindcasting of some of these data sets, this analysis provides rough estimates for the peat volumes and related constituents. Our calculations indicate that the current Everglades roughly contains less than 24% of theoriginal peat volume, 17% of its mass and 19% of its carbon. The work described was fully supported by the South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, FL

Thomas Walter Dreschel↗
NASA NTRS2021

Scheduling and Operations of the ECOSTRESS Mission

This paper describes the development and use of an automated scheduling system for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) mission. Key to the success of the ECOSTRESS mission has been the use of automated scheduling in mission analysis pre-launch, and in successful operations where automated scheduling was deployed to address several operational challenges. ECOSTRESS uses an adaptation of the Compressed Large-scale Activity Scheduling and Planning (CLASP) system to automatically select science observations respecting area and point target priorities as well as visibility, illumination, onboard storage, and radiation constraints to satisfy high-level prioritized science campaigns. The ECOSTRESS scheduler was used pre-launch to predict the effectiveness of alternative formulations of science campaign definitions accounting for the impact of data volume, keepout, and orbit/illumination/visibility constraints to derive the initial operational science campaign definitions and priorities. The scheduler was then used after instrument checkout for operations. ECOSTRESS has faced multiple operational challenges relating to instrument firmware and hardware, and the scheduler has been updated several times to address these challenges. The instrument Mass Storage Units (MSUs) had operational issues, requiring the scheduler to plan for and schedule commands to handle intricacies of data management. After many months of operations, both MSUs on the instrument became non-functioning and the firmware of the instrument was updated to bypass the MSUs. A further update to the ECOSTRESS scheduler enabled the scheduler to operate in this new operations mode. The ECOSTRESS scheduler has also been updated to improve handling of along-track uncertainty inherent in International Space Station operations. The flexibility and ease of updating of the automated scheduler has been a significant contributor to successful operations of the ECOSTRESS mission.

Padams, Jordan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Safety Expertise and the Perils of Novelty

Emerging aviation markets such as urban air mobility are giving rise to new technologies and means of operation. However, novelty may hide ‘unknown unknowns,’ raising new hazards. This paper examines how expertise and safety techniques enable transformative technologies such as reduced crew operations, hybrid wing-borne and rotor-born flight, federated air traffic services, and urban operations. We explore how analysts use expertise to address common-cause failures, collect and interpret safety data, and perform exacting tradeoffs between dissimilarity, redundancy, independence, and diversity (human, process lifecycle, or otherwise) to ensure safety. When novelty is present, analysts might not possess the expertise needed to fully understand the implications of design decisions and tradeoffs being made, especially in early lifecycle phases, on emergent properties such as safety. Safety expertise must be carefully cultivated. The conflicting views of safety experts must be unpacked to identify the divergence in fundamental assumptions, models, means, and methods that may be causing them. Once systems venture beyond the basis of what safety expertise can reliably guarantee, projects take on risk that must be managed. The paper contains key takeaways and actionable recommendations for novel OEMs and regulators touching on topics such as robust monitoring; clear and transparent reporting; incremental approaches to fielding novel systems in hazard-rich, risk-tolerant environments; the cultivation of safety culture and expertise in an organization; and the use of scientific study to reduce epistemic uncertainty in novel operations with new technologies. Since excessive novelty in aviation can undermine the current foundation of safety, humility and incrementalism are necessary to enable emerging aviation markets safely.

safety expertise↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Safety Expertise and the Perils of Novelty

Emerging aviation markets such as urban air mobility are giving rise to new technologies and means of operation. However, novelty may hide ‘unknown unknowns,’ raising new hazards. This paper examines how expertise and safety techniques enable transformative technologies such as reduced crew operations, hybrid wing-borne and rotor-born flight, federated air traffic services, and urban operations. We explore how analysts use expertise to address common-cause failures, collect and interpret safety data, and perform exacting tradeoffs between dissimilarity, redundancy, independence, and diversity (human, process lifecycle, or otherwise) to ensure safety. When novelty is present, analysts might not possess the expertise needed to fully understand the implications of design decisions and tradeoffs being made, especially in early lifecycle phases, on emergent properties such as safety. Safety expertise must be carefully cultivated. The conflicting views of safety experts must be unpacked to identify the divergence in fundamental assumptions, models, means, and methods that may be causing them. Once systems venture beyond the basis of what safety expertise can reliably guarantee, projects take on risk that must be managed. The paper contains key takeaways and actionable recommendations for novel OEMs and regulators touching on topics such as robust monitoring; clear and transparent reporting; incremental approaches to fielding novel systems in hazard-rich, risk-tolerant environments; the cultivation of safety culture and expertise in an organization; and the use of scientific study to reduce epistemic uncertainty in novel operations with new technologies. Since excessive novelty in aviation can undermine the current foundation of safety, humility and incrementalism are necessary to enable emerging aviation markets safely.

safety expertise↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vadose and Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Calculations for the Active Trenches of the Low-Level Burial Grounds, Hanford Site, Washington

The purpose of the fate and transport modeling described in this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to evaluate the impacts to groundwater associated with waste disposal operations at Mixed Waste Low-Level Burial Ground (LLBG) Trenches 31 and 34 to satisfy requirements in DOE O 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management. The model integrates the flow and transport in the vadose zone beneath the active trenches with the saturated zone downgradient of the trenches to predict the radionuclide concentration at the point of assessment (POA). DOE M 435.1-1, Radioactive Waste Management Manual, defines the POA as the point of highest projected dose or concentration beyond a 100 m (328 ft) buffer zone surrounding the disposed waste. The modeling is conducted in accordance with the DOE G 435.1, Implementation Guide for Use with DOE M 435.1-1, performance assessment (PA) guidelines. The modeling involves evaluation of the groundwater concentrations and radionuclide arrival times during the 1,000-year compliance and 10,000-year sensitivity-uncertainty periods per DOE O 435.1 and DOE M 435.1. This analysis does not consider radionuclide release during facility operations, only the post-closure impacts of the radionuclides to the environment. The evaluation of potential radiological dose to groundwater receptors caused by releases from a closed facility containing radioactive waste typically includes the following: (1) Release of radionuclides from that facility (2) Transport of those radionuclides through the environment, and (3) Exposure to humans to environmental concentration levels of those radionuclides The fate and transport three-dimensional (3D) model analysis involves the post-closure impacts to the environment of the technetium-99, iodone-129, and uranium (all isotopes in the waste). The residual inventory estimates include several radionuclides, but technetium-99 is typically responsible for almost all of the beta-gamma dose equivalent associated with groundwater (water resources) protection per 40 CFR 141, “National Primary Drinking Water Regulations” (e.g., see the results in WCH-520, Performance Assessment of Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility, Hanford Site, Washington; hereinafter referred to as the ERDF PA), and iodone-129 can also be a significant dose contributor for some waste (e.g., RPP-RPT-59958, Performance Assessment for the Integrated Disposal Facility, Hanford Site, Washington; hereinafter referred to as the IDF PA). Uranium does not typically factor significantly into the impacts to groundwater, even during the 10,000-year sensitivity-uncertainty period, but always remains of interest as a contaminant. This ECF does not address vadose and saturated zone modeling for Trench 94 of the 200 East Area LLBG. Current information confirms the validity of the low corrosion rate of the naval reactor plant carbon steel (HY-80), and the even lower corrosion rate of the nickel-iron-chromium alloy reactor vessel (Inconel Alloy 600) presented in DOE/EIS-0259, Final Environmental Impact Statement on the Disposal of Decommissioned, Defueled Cruiser, Ohio Class, and Los Angeles Class Naval Reactor Plants. Based on these low corrosion rates, the time to breach the reactor vessel to allow release of radionuclides from the activated metal of the reactor vessel internal structure is at least 10,000 years. This time to breach precludes the need to evaluate the vadose and saturated zone transport of contaminants released from the reactor compartment disposal packages in the 200 East Area LLBGs PA (CP-63826, Waste Release Model Package Report for the Active Trenches of the Low-Level Burial Grounds, Hanford Site, Washington).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2016

Comparison of Different Control Schemes for Strategic Departure Metering

Airports and their terminal airspaces are key choke points in the air transportation system causing major delays and adding to pollution. A solution aimed at mitigating these chokepoints integrates the scheduling of runway operations, flight release from the gates and ramp into the airport movement area, and merging with other traffic competing for downstream airspace points. Within this integrated concept, we present a simulation-based analysis of the departure metering process, which delays the release of flights into the airport movement area while balancing two competing objectives: (1) maintaining large enough queues at the airport resources to maximize throughput and (2) absorbing excess delays at the gates or in ramp areas to save on fuel consumption, emissions, noise, and passenger discomfort. Three metering strategies are compared which respectively attempt to control the number of flights that (1) left the gate but did not take off, (2) left the ramp but did not take off, and (3) spent their unimpeded transit time to the runway but did not take off. It was observed that under deterministic and demand uncertainty conditions, the first strategy performed better than the other two strategies in terms of maintaining the runway throughput while transferring a significant average delay of two minutes to the gate. On the other hand, under uncertainties of flight transit time and runway service rate, all the strategies struggled to delay flights at the gate without a significant impact on the runway throughput.

air traffic management↗
NASA NTRS1989

Practices in Adequate Structural Design

Structural design and verification of space vehicles and space systems is a very tricky and awe inspiring business, particularly for manned missions. Failures in the missions with loss of life is devastating personally and nationally. The scope of the problem is driven by high performance requirements which push state-of-the-art technologies, creating high sensitivites to small variations and uncertainties. Insurance of safe, reliable flight dictates the use of sound principles, procedures, analysis, and testing. Many of those principles which were refocused by the Space Shuttle Challenger (51-L) accident on January 26, 1986, and the activities conducted to insure safe shuttle reflights are discussed. The emphasis will be focused on engineering, while recognizing that project and project management are also key to success.

Ryan, Robert S.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Project Management Approach to Using Simulation for Cost Estimation on Large, Complex Software Development Projects

It is very difficult for project managers to develop accurate cost and schedule estimates for large, complex software development projects. None of the approaches or tools available today can estimate the true cost of software with any high degree of accuracy early in a project. This paper provides an approach that utilizes a software development process simulation model that considers and conveys the level of uncertainty that exists when developing an initial estimate. A NASA project will be analyzed using simulation and data from the Software Engineering Laboratory to show the benefits of such an approach.

Mizell, Carolyn↗
NASA NTRS2021

High-Density Automated Vertiport Concept of Operations

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) vision for Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) includes Urban Air Mobility (UAM) – a concept involving vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft, decentralized (or federated) traffic management, and new infrastructure to support urban, suburban, and rural flight operations. High-density performance-based routes or corridors enable prompt transportation of people and goods from node to node, where each node represents a vertiport, defined as an identifiable ground or elevated area used for the takeoff and landing of VTOL aircraft. In the presence of uncertainty surrounding aircraft turnaround time on the ground, vertiports are the critical end points in scheduling, sequencing, and spacing (SSS) of aircraft in dense metropolitan environments. This Concept of Operations (ConOps) includes vertiports of varying sizes, configurations, service offerings, and locations. UAM air vehicles include conventional rotorcraft, unmanned VTOL aircraft, and novel piloted VTOL aircraft. This ConOps focuses on operations at a high-density vertiport, supported by a Vertiport Automation System (VAS) with high-throughput operation capabilities under conditions defined as NASA’s Urban Air Mobility Maturity Level Four (UML-4).

UAM↗
NASA NTRS2021

High-Density Automated Vertiport Concept of Operations

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) vision for Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) includes Urban Air Mobility (UAM) – a concept involving vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft, decentralized (or federated) traffic management, and new infrastructure to support urban, suburban, and rural flight operations. High-density performance-based routes or corridors enable prompt transportation of people and goods from node to node, where each node represents a vertiport, defined as an identifiable ground or elevated area used for the takeoff and landing of VTOL aircraft. In the presence of uncertainty surrounding aircraft turnaround time on the ground, vertiports are the critical end points in scheduling, sequencing, and spacing (SSS) of aircraft in dense metropolitan environments. This Concept of Operations (ConOps) includes vertiports of varying sizes, configurations, service offerings, and locations. UAM air vehicles include conventional rotorcraft, unmanned VTOL aircraft, and novel piloted VTOL aircraft. This ConOps focuses on operations at a high-density vertiport, supported by a Vertiport Automation System (VAS) with high-throughput operation capabilities under conditions defined as NASA’s Urban Air Mobility Maturity Level Four (UML-4).

Urban Air Mobility↗
DOE OSTI2023

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F Specification (Revision 10)

This report is the revised (Revision 10) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

New Tools for Automating Arcjet Sample Recession Tracking and Analysis

Arcjet Computer Vision (arcjetCV) has been significantly upgraded to enhance accuracy and performance in tracking material recession and shock-material standoff in test videos. These improvements include integrating new machine learning models, developing a specialized edge detection class, and incorporating a more comprehensive training dataset. These upgrades have refined the software’s ability to automate time-resolved recession tracking, making it more precise and reliable for analyzing complex physical processes. In parallel, a new tool called STARscan (Spatial Targeting and Alignment Rig for Scanning) is being developed to capture detailed 3D surface data before and after testing. By comparing these pre- and post-test scans with arcjetCV’s automated video analysis results, users can achieve a more comprehensive assessment of material recession. This method enables cross-validation of results, improving confidence in the analysis of tested materials. The expanded capabilities of arcjetCV have been successfully demonstrated on videos from various facilities, including the NASA Ames arcjets, UIUC’s PlasmatronX, and the VKI Plasmatron. It has been adopted as a new standard for in-situ recession tracking by the Mars Sample Return Project and Orion. ArcjetCV’s improved efficiency and accuracy are critical for reducing testing uncertainties and validating heatshield material performance under extreme conditions. The software’s user-friendly graphical interface ensures ease of use, enabling seamless processing and precise analysis of arcjet videos, providing deeper insights into material behavior in hypersonic environments. ArcjetCV is now available on both PyPI and Conda, allowing easy installation via "pip install arcjetCV" or through the Conda package manager, ensuring broad accessibility and streamlined deployment for users across various platforms.

Ablation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance Assessment Maintenance Plan for the Active Low-Level Burial Ground Trenches 31, 34, and 94 at the Hanford Site

This report documents the maintenance plan for the Hanford Site 200 West Area Active Low-Level Burial Ground Trenches 31 and 34 and 200 East Area Active Trench 94 performance assessment (PA). The PA maintenance plan is one of several supporting documents that are compendiums to the active trenches (Trenches 31, 34, and 94) PA as required in DOE O 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management . The PA is documented in DOE/RL-2021-26, Performance Assessment of Active Trenches in 200 East and West Low-Level Burial Grounds at the Hanford Site . This plan follows the requirements and outline specified in the applicable U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) standard used for developing documents supporting DOE-STD-5002-2017, Disposal Authorization Statement and Tank Closure Documentation . This maintenance plan summarizes the following major activities DOE plans to conduct to maintain the Trenches 31, 34, and 94 PA: Monitoring; Research and development; Planned reviews and analyses; Revisions of Trenches 31, 34, and 94 PA. The planned research and development activities relate to evaluating the key assumptions, including evaluating conceptual model assumptions and parameter value assumptions used in the PA. The planned research and development activities include those that are designed to track the release mechanisms for Category 1, Category 3, and uranium billet waste sources, as well as continued characterization and related modeling of the natural environment in the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. In addition, the planned research and development activities include focused testing and evaluation of engineered and natural materials to reduce the uncertainty in the conceptual models and parameter values used in the PA. All key and secondary issues identified during the review of the PA by the Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility Federal Review Group have been resolved prior to finalization of the PA. There are no outstanding issues.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2014

Comparison Of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Datasets For Projecting Changes In Extreme Precipitation In The San Francisco Bay Area.

Water resource managers planning for the adaptation to future events of extreme precipitation now have access to high resolution downscaled daily projections derived from statistical bias correction and constructed analogs. We also show that along the Pacific Coast the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) is a reliable predictor of storm likelihood, and therefore a predictor of seasonal precipitation totals and likelihood of extremely intense precipitation. Such time series can be used to project intensity duration curves into the future or input into stormwater models. However, few climate projection studies have explored the impact of the type of downscaling method used on the range and uncertainty of predictions for local flood protection studies. Here we present a study of the future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, located in South Bay Area, by comparing the range of predictions in extreme precipitation events calculated from three sets of time series downscaled from CMIP5 data: 1) the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs method dataset downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid (12km); 2) the Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation method downscaled to a 1km grid; 3) a statistical model of extreme daily precipitation events and projected NOI from CMIP5 models. In addition, predicted years of extreme precipitation are used to estimate the risk of overtopping of the retention pond located on the site through simulations of the EPA SWMM hydrologic model. Preliminary results indicate that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase and flood the NASA Ames retention pond. The results from these estimations will assist flood protection managers in planning for infrastructure adaptations.

Storm↗
DOE OSTI2022

A reforecasting-based dynamic reserve estimation for variable renewable generation and demand uncertainty

The installed capacity of renewables-based energy sources has been increasing in traditional power systems. In order to accommodate the increased variability and uncertainty associated with the deeper penetration of renewable sources like solar and wind, adjusted amounts of dynamic reserve are needed. Although probabilistic dynamic reserve estimation methods have been previously developed, most of them consider the uncertainty to be represented by parametric density functions that tend to perform poorly under extreme events and, moreover, neglect uncertainty introduced by the forecasting model itself. Toward addressing these limitations, this work presents, for the first time, a dynamic reserve estimation method for flexibility that incorporates nonparametric density estimation and a machine learning based reforecasting to provide a day-ahead prediction of the mean and spread of uncertainty around the base forecast. The prediction is, in turn, used to estimate the up and down reserve relative to the base forecast. Here, the present method takes various endogenous and exogenous features, including the calendar variables, as input to estimate the day-ahead reserve. Using a combination of reforecasting and dynamic reserve estimation techniques, the method is shown to adjust better to the dynamic nature of reserve requirements providing only what is needed to accommodate the expected deviations. Considering California Independent System Operator (CAISO) solar, wind and load data over an 18 month period, up to 67% reduction in the amount of reserve capacity needed for a one day reserve and reserve penalty for solar uncertainty is demonstrated. Additionally, the risk of reserve insufficiency in meeting the net demand is reduced by 20% with the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗