Reducing nonlinear dynamical systems via model reduction and machine learning.
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Constructing and operating dams for hydropower generation can impact downstream ecosystems by altering natural flow regimes and interfering with the lifecycles of aquatic and riparian species. Increased concern from environmental interests, coupled with federal relicensing requirements that aim to minimize environmental impacts, have put pressure on dam operators to quantify the flow regime changes that have resulted from dam construction and to evaluate how future modifications to dam releases may impact river systems. In this study, we present a method for analyzing the impact of dam operations by reconstructing system trajectories from hydrologic flow time series for different periods of dam operation (pre-dam, post-dam, and post-modification). We apply these methods to flow data from Lees Ferry, Colorado, just downstream of Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, to determine how the dimensionality of the river system has changed over time and to evaluate the effectiveness of a new operating policy put into place after the 1992 Grand Canyon Protection Act was passed. While the post-dam period governed by hydropower operations is characterized by high dimensional, stochastic behavior, the pre-dam and post-modification periods are low dimensional and less complex, demonstrating the success of the new operating policy in mirroring the natural flow regime. Our analysis also suggests that applying a strictly deterministic or stochastic modeling approach to historical flow data does not appropriately capture the varying complexity of the Colorado River system during the three distinct periods of hydrologic behavior.
Dams provide a variety of benefits to society, including hydropower generation, flood control, recreation, and water supply for municipal, industrial, and agricultural customers. However, constructing and operating dams for these purposes can negatively impact downstream ecosystems by altering natural flow regimes and interfering with the lifecycles of aquatic and riparian species. Increased concern from environmental interests has put pressure on dam operators to quantify the flow regime changes that have resulted from dam construction and to evaluate how future modifications to dam releases may impact river systems. In this study, we present a method for analyzing the impact of dam operations by reconstructing system trajectories from hydrologic flow time series for different periods of dam operation (pre-dam, post-dam, and post-modification). We apply these methods to flow data from eight rivers in the US to determine the dimensionality of each operating period and to analyze trends based on the primary purpose of dam operation. Hydropower dams operated without flow restrictions exhibit high dimensional, stochastic behavior. However, the system dimensionality is reduced to approximately three variables when ramping restrictions are implemented, or in cases where an afterbay is present to reregulate flows. This low dimensional behavior is more similar to natural flow regimes. For dams operated primarily for flood control or water supply, the flow regimes are typically low dimensional and more deterministic.
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This work demonstrates new functionality and applications stemming from the development of high-fidelity to low-fidelity (high-low) coupling for system simulations and to further explore the capabilities of the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) in the performance of uncertainty quantification in this kind of high-low coupled system models. The work builds from previous work on high-low coupling that utilized COBRA-TF (CTF), the high-fidelity subchannel analysis code, with a low fidelity model built in ORNL’s TRANSFORM, the system analysis code, utilizing the Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI). Steady-state and transient analysis examples using the high/low coupled models generated from CTF and TRANSFORM/FMI are investigated. The workflows for both steady-state and transient coupled simulations are described. A steady-state parameter sweep and uncertainty analysis of the primary flow rates and reactor power are demonstrated. Likewise, a transient pump trip and power ramp sensitivity studies are also demonstrated. This work elucidates some of the potential benefits and future needs of using RAVEN for high/low system coupling analysis of energy systems. It also shows some of the difficulties that can be encountered in coupling system simulations.
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