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DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Impacts of Land-Cover Change on the Hydrologic Response to Hurricane Ida in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

Abstract The Lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) has experienced significant changes in land cover and is one of the most vulnerable regions to hurricanes in the United States. Here, we study the impacts of land-cover change on the hydrologic response to Hurricane Ida in LMRB. By using an integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model, Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model coupled with the three-dimensional ParFlow subsurface flow model (ELM-ParFlow), we simulate the effects of land-cover change on the flood volume and peak timing induced by rainfall from Hurricane Ida. The results show that land-cover changes from 1850 to 2015, which resulted in a smoother surface and less vegetation, exacerbated both flood peak time and volume induced by Hurricane Ida. The effects of land-cover changes can be decomposed into two mechanisms: a smoother surface routes more water faster to a watershed outlet and less vegetation allows more water to contribute to surface runoff. By comparing scenarios in which the two mechanisms were isolated, we found that changes in soil moisture due to vegetation cover change have more dominant effects on floods in the southern part and changes in Manning’s coefficient have the largest effect on floods in the northern part of the LMRB. The study provides important insights into the complex relationship between land-use, land-cover, and hydrologic processes in coastal regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1991

Lake Hoare, Antarctica: sedimentation through a thick perennial ice cover

Lake Hoare in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica is covered with a perennial ice cover more than 3 m thick, yet there is a complex record of sedimentation and of growth of microbial mats on the lake bottom. Rough topography on the ice covering the lake surface traps sand that is transported by the wind. In late summer, vertical conduits form by melting and fracturing, making the ice permeable to both liquid water and gases. Cross-sections of the ice cover show that sand is able to penetrate into and apparently through it by descending through these conduits. This is the primary sedimentation mechanism in the lake. Sediment traps retrieved from the lake bottom indicate that rates of deposition can vary by large amounts over lateral scales as small as 1 m. This conclusion is supported by cores taken in a 3 x 3 grid with a spacing of 1.5 m. Despite the close spacing of the cores, the poor stratigraphic correlation that is observed indicates substantial lateral variability in sedimentation rate. Apparently, sand descends into the lake from discrete, highly localized sources in the ice that may in some cases deposit a large amount of sand into the lake in a very short time. In some locations on the lake bottom, distinctive sand mounds have been formed by this process. They are primary sedimentary structures and appear unique to the perennially ice-covered lacustrine environment. In some locations they are tens of centimetres high and gently rounded with stable slopes; in others they reach approximately 1 m in height and have a conical shape with slopes at angle of repose. A simple formation model suggests that these differences can be explained by local variations in water depth and sedimentation rate. Rapid colonization of fresh sand surfaces by microbial mats composed of cyanobacteria, eukaryotic algae, and heterotrophic bacteria produces a complex intercalation of organic and sandy layers that are a distinctive form of modern stromatolites.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Contribution of CEOP Data to the Understanding and Modeling of Monsoon Systems

CEOP has contributed and will continue to provide integrated data sets from diverse platforms for better understanding of the water and energy cycles, and for validaintg models. In this talk, I will show examples of how CEOP has contributed to the formulation of a strategy for the study of the monsoon as a system. The CEOP data concept has led to the development of the CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS), which focuses on the identification of model bias, and improvement of model physics such as the diurnal and annual cycles. A multi-model validation project focusing on diurnal variability of the East Asian monsoon, and using CEOP reference site data, as well as CEOP integrated satellite data is now ongoing. Preliminary studies show that climate models have difficulties in simulating the diurnal signals of total rainfall, rainfall intensity and frequency of occurrence, which have different peak hours, depending on locations. Further more model diurnal cycle of rainfall in monsoon regions tend to lead the observed by about 2-3 hours. These model bias offer insight into lack of, or poor representation of, key components of the convective and stratiform rainfall. The CEOP data also stimulated studies to compare and contrasts monsoon variability in different parts of the world. It was found that seasonal wind reversal, orographic effects, monsoon depressions, meso-scale convective complexes, SST and land surface land influences are common features in all monsoon regions. Strong intraseasonal variability is present in all monsoon regions. While there is a clear demarcation of onset, breaks and withdrawal in the Asian and Australian monsoon region associated with climatological intraseasonal variabillity, it is less clear in the American and Africa monsoon regions. The examination of satellite and reference site data in monsoon has led to preliminary model experiments to study the impact of aerosol on monsoon variability. I will show examples of how the study of the dynamics of aerosol-water cycle interactions in the monsoon region, can be best achieved using the CEOP data and modeling strategy.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The contribution of CEOP data to the understanding and modeling of monsoon systems

CEOP has contributed and will continue to provide integrated data sets from diverse platforms for better understanding of the water and energy cycles, and for validating models. In this talk, I will show examples of how CEOP has contributed to the formulation of a strategy for the study of the monsoon as a system. The CEOP data concept has led to the development of the CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS), which focuses on the identification of model bias, and improvement of model physics such as the diurnal and annual cycles. A multi-model validation project focusing on diurnal variability of the East Asian monsoon, and using CEOP reference site data, as well as CEOP integrated satellite data is now ongoing. Similar validation projects in other monsoon regions are being started. Preliminary studies show that climate models have difficulties in simulating the diurnal signals of total rainfall, rainfall intensity and frequency of occurrence, which have different peak hours, depending on locations. Further more model diurnal cycle of rainfall in monsoon regions tend to lead the observed by about 2-3 hours. These model bias offer insight into lack of, or poor representation of key components of the convective,and stratiform rainfall. The CEOP data also stimulated studies to compare and contrasts monsoon variability in different parts of the world. It was found that seasonal wind reversal, orographic effects, monsoon depressions, meso-scale convective complexes, SST and land surface land influences are common features in all monsoon regions. Strong intraseasonal variability is present in all monsoon regions. While there is a clear demarcation of onset, breaks and withdrawal in the Asian and Australian monsoon region associated with climatological intraseasonal variability, it is less clear in the American and Africa monsoon regions. The examination of satellite and reference site data in monsoon has led to preliminary model experiments to study the impact of aerosol on monsoon variability. I will show examples of how the study of the dynamics of aerosol-water cycle interactions in the monsoon region, can be best achieved using the CEOP data and modeling strategy.

Lau, William K. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Arsenic and Selenium in Coal Fly Ash to Improve Evaluations for Disposal and Reuse Potential (Final Technical Report)

Coal fly ash is a high volume waste material that is discarded in landfills and surface water impoundments across the U.S. and is also widely recycled for a variety of applications. The leaching of potential of contaminants of concern, such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se), is often the driver of risk assessments for coal ash disposal and reuse. The extent of leachable As and Se depends on several factors related to environmental conditions and fly ash characteristics. Previous studies employed various methods to delineate the concentration, chemical form, and distribution of As and Se in fly ash materials. However, few studies have attempted to directly correlate these properties to mobilization parameters relevant to disposal and reuse. Instead, the coal residuals industries often rely upon standardized leaching protocols that can be laborious or involve hazardous chemicals. The goals of the project were to: 1) Develop and evaluate a characterization protocol that can be used to screen fly ash samples for leachability of As and Se; 2) Characterize As, Se, and associated constituents of fly ash particles at multiple length scales (nanometer to micrometer) to determine if elemental associations differ as a function of the resolution of characterization; and 3) Establish a predictive model for the chemical composition of coal ash produced annually at major U.S. coal fired power facilities on 50-year national coal supply records. For the first objective, we performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic coal regions. For this work, we assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition (LOI) and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As, but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash. For the second objective, we utilized nanoscale 2-D imaging (30-50 nm spot size) with the Hard X-ray Nanoprobe (HXN) in combination with microprobe X-ray capabilities (~5 µm resolution) to determine As and Se elemental associations in fly ash particles. Speciation of As and Se was also measured at the nano- to microscale with X-ray absorption spectroscopy. The enhanced resolution of HXN showed As and Se that were diffusely located around or comingled with Ca- and Fe-rich particles. The results also showed nanoparticles of Se attached to the surface of fly ash grains. Overall, a comparison of As and Se species across scales highlights the heterogeneity and complexity of chemical associations for these trace elements of concern in coal fly ash. For the final objective, we developed a predictive model for major element composition of coal ash in reserve at disposal sites of major U.S. coal fired power plants. This model was constructed from coal purchase records of 705 power stations from 1973-2022 and was trained on coal ash composition data showing that coal ash elemental composition is strongly associated with the source of feedstock coal. The model showed regional shifts in the major element contents of ash produced by power plants in the last 50 years, particularly for calcium and iron (expressed as %CaO and %Fe 2 O 3 ), as coal-fired power stations changed their source of coal over this time frame. Our approach enables an estimation of coal ash chemical composition that is stored in waste impoundments at individual power stations. Such information can help delineate the regional market potential for material applications that would utilize coal ash harvested from disposal sites across the U.S.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS1992

Sensor fusion V; Proceedings of the Meeting, Boston, MA, Nov. 15-17, 1992

Topics addressed include 3D object perception, human-machine interface in multisensor systems, sensor fusion architecture, fusion of multiple and distributed sensors, interface and decision models for sensor fusion, computational networks, simple sensing for complex action, multisensor-based control, and metrology and calibration of multisensor systems. Particular attention is given to controlling 3D objects by sketching 2D views, the graphical simulation and animation environment for flexible structure robots, designing robotic systems from sensorimotor modules, cylindrical object reconstruction from a sequence of images, an accurate estimation of surface properties by integrating information using Bayesian networks, an adaptive fusion model for a distributed detection system, multiple concurrent object descriptions in support of autonomous navigation, robot control with multiple sensors and heuristic knowledge, and optical array detectors for image sensors calibration. (No individual items are abstracted in this volume)

Schenker, Paul S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ions Tune Interfacial Water Structure and Modulate Hydrophobic Interactions at Silica Surfaces

The structure and ultrafast dynamics of the electric double layer (EDL) are central to chemical reactivity and physical properties at solid/aqueous interfaces. While the Gouy–Chapman–Stern model is widely used to describe EDLs, it is solely based on the macroscopic electrostatic attraction of electrolytes for the charged surfaces. Structure and dynamics in the Stern layer are, however, more complex because of competing effects due to the localized surface charge distribution, surface–solvent–ion correlations, and the interfacial hydrogen bonding environment. Here, we report combined time-resolved vibrational sum frequency generation (TR-vSFG) spectroscopy with ab initio DFT-based molecular dynamics simulations (AIMD/DFT-MD) to get direct access to the molecular-level understanding of how ions change the structure and dynamics of the EDL. We show that innersphere adsorbed ions tune the hydrophobicity of the silica–aqueous interface by shifting the structural makeup in the Stern layer from dominant water–surface interactions to water–water interactions. This drives an initially inhomogeneous interfacial water coordination landscape observed at the neat interface toward a homogeneous, highly interconnected in-plane 2D hydrogen bonding (2D-HB) network at the ionic interface, reminiscent of the canonical, hydrophobic air–water interface. This ion-induced transformation results in a characteristic decrease of the vibrational lifetime (T 1 ) of excited interfacial O–H stretching modes from T 1 ~ 600 fs to T 1 ~ 250 fs. Hence, we propose that the T 1 determined by TR-vSFG in combination with DFT-MD simulations can be widely used for a quantitative spectroscopic probe of the ion kosmotropic/chaotropic effect at aqueous interfaces as well as of the ion-induced surface hydrophobicity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1992

A transport equation for eddy viscosity

A transport equation for eddy viscosity is proposed for wall bounded turbulent flows. The proposed model reduces to a quasi-homogeneous form far from surfaces. Near to a surface, the nonhomogeneous effect of the wall is modeled by an elliptic relaxation model. All the model terms are expressed in local variables and are coordinate independent; the model is intended to be used in complex flows. Turbulent channel flow and turbulent boundary layer flows with/without pressure gradient are calculated using the present model. Comparisons between model calculations and direct numerical simulation or experimental data show good agreement.

Durbin, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Laser interferometer skin-friction measurements of crossing-shock-wave/turbulent-boundary-layer interactions

Wall shear stress measurements beneath crossing-shock-wave/turbulent boundary-layer interactions have been made for three interactions of different strengths. The interactions are generated by two sharp fins at symetric angles of attack mounted on a flat plate. The shear stress measurements were made for fin angles of 7 and 11 deg at Mach 3 and 15 deg at Mach 3.85. The measurements were made using a laser interferometer skin-friction meter, a device that determines the wall shear by optically measuring the time rate of thinning of an oil film placed on the test model surface. Results of the measurements reveal high skin-friction coefficients in the vicinity of the fin/plate junction and the presence of quasi-two-dimensional flow separation on the interaction center line. Additionally, two Navier-Stokes computations, one using a Baldwin-Lomax turbulence model and one using a k-epsilon model, are compared with the experimental results for the Mach 3.85, 15-deg interaction case. Although the k-epsilon model did a reasonable job of predicting the overall trend in portions of the skin-friction distribution, neither computation fully captured the physics of the near-surface flow in this complex interaction.

Garrison, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Fourth Computational Aeroacoustics (CAA) Workshop on Benchmark Problems

This publication contains the proceedings of the Fourth Computational Aeroacoustics (CAA) Workshop on Benchmark Problems. In this workshop, as in previous workshops, the problems were devised to gauge the technological advancement of computational techniques to calculate all aspects of sound generation and propagation in air directly from the fundamental governing equations. A variety of benchmark problems have been previously solved ranging from simple geometries with idealized acoustic conditions to test the accuracy and effectiveness of computational algorithms and numerical boundary conditions; to sound radiation from a duct; to gust interaction with a cascade of airfoils; to the sound generated by a separating, turbulent viscous flow. By solving these and similar problems, workshop participants have shown the technical progress from the basic challenges to accurate CAA calculations to the solution of CAA problems of increasing complexity and difficulty. The fourth CAA workshop emphasized the application of CAA methods to the solution of realistic problems. The workshop was held at the Ohio Aerospace Institute in Cleveland, Ohio, on October 20 to 22, 2003. At that time, workshop participants presented their solutions to problems in one or more of five categories. Their solutions are presented in this proceedings along with the comparisons of their solutions to the benchmark solutions or experimental data. The five categories for the benchmark problems were as follows: Category 1:Basic Methods. The numerical computation of sound is affected by, among other issues, the choice of grid used and by the boundary conditions. Category 2:Complex Geometry. The ability to compute the sound in the presence of complex geometric surfaces is important in practical applications of CAA. Category 3:Sound Generation by Interacting With a Gust. The practical application of CAA for computing noise generated by turbomachinery involves the modeling of the noise source mechanism as a vortical gust interacting with an airfoil. Category 4:Sound Transmission and Radiation. Category 5:Sound Generation in Viscous Problems. Sound is generated under certain conditions by a viscous flow as the flow passes an object or a cavity.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

NASA NTRS2017

OLYMPEX Data Workshop: GPM View

OLYMPEX Primary Objectives: Datasets to enable: (1) Direct validation over complex terrain at multiple scales, liquid and frozen precip types, (a) Do we capture terrain and synoptic regime transitions, orographic enhancements/structure, full range of precipitation intensity (e.g., very light to heavy) and types, spatial variability? (b) How well can we estimate space/time-accumulated precipitation over terrain (liquid + frozen)? (2) Physical validation of algorithms in mid-latitude cold season frontal systems over ocean and complex terrain, (a) What are the column properties of frozen, melting, liquid hydrometeors-their relative contributions to estimated surface precipitation, transition under the influence of terrain gradients, and systematic variability as a function of synoptic regime? (3) Integrated hydrologic validation in complex terrain, (a) Can satellite estimates be combined with modeling over complex topography to drive improved products (assimilation, downscaling) [Level IV products] (b) What are capabilities and limitations for use of satellite-based precipitation estimates in stream/river flow forecasting?

GPM↗

NASA NTRS1993

Analysis of the Harrier forebody/inlet design using computational techniques

Under the support of this Cooperative Agreement, computations of transonic flow past the complex forebody/inlet configuration of the AV-8B Harrier II have been performed. The actual aircraft configuration was measured and its surface and surrounding domain were defined using computational structured grids. The thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations were used to model the flow along with the Chimera embedded multi-grid technique. A fully conservative, alternating direction implicit (ADI), approximately-factored, partially flux-split algorithm was employed to perform the computation. An existing code was altered to conform with the needs of the study, and some special engine face boundary conditions were developed. The algorithm incorporated the Chimera technique and an algebraic turbulence model in order to deal with the embedded multi-grids and viscous governing equations. Comparison with experimental data has yielded good agreement for the simplifications incorporated into the analysis. The aim of the present research was to provide a methodology for the numerical solution of complex, combined external/internal flows. This is the first time-dependent Navier-Stokes solution for a geometry in which the fuselage and inlet share a wall. The results indicate the methodology used here is a viable tool for transonic aircraft modeling.

Chow, Chuen-Yen↗

DOE OSTI2024

Vidyut3d: A Non-Equilibrium Plasma Modeling Tool [SWR-24-101]

Vidyut3d is a massively-parallel plasma-fluid solver for low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) that supports both local field (LFA) and local mean energy (LMEA) approximations, as well as complex gas and surface-phase chemistry. The solver supports 2D and 3D domains, and uses AMReX's adaptive mesh refinement capabilities to increase the grid resolution around complex structures (e.g. streamer heads and sheaths) while maintaining a tractable problem size. Vidyut specializes in simulating various types of gas-phase discharges, as well as plasma/surface interactions and surface chemistry (e.g. for plasma-mediated catalysis applications). The solver also supports hybrid CPU/GPU parallelization strategies, and has demonstrated excellent scaling on various HPC architectures for problem sizes consisting of O(100 M) control volumes.

Sitaraman, Hariswaran↗

DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Computation Of Surface Sunlit Fractions In Urban-Scale Building Modeling Using Ray-Tracing Techniques

For building energy simulation at an urban-scale, solar shading calculations can be significantly slow when a large number of shading surfaces are considered in the solar shading calculations, due to the computational complexity of the geometry calculations. We developed a new algorithm using the ray-tracing technique to pre-calculate the sunlit fractions of all exterior surfaces in an urban district altogether. The ray tracing-based calculator is accelerated using General Purpose Graphics Processing Units (GPGPUs) and the Optix ray tracing library, and provides an efficient, flexible, and robust means for computing the sunlit fraction of large numbers of urban surfaces of complex geometries.

Luo, Xuan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the small-scale deposition of snow onto structured Arctic sea ice during a MOSAiC storm using snowBedFoam 1.0.

The remoteness and extreme conditions of the Arctic make it a very difficult environment to investigate. In these polar regions covered by sea ice, the wind is relatively strong due to the absence of obstructions and redistributes a large part of the deposited snow mass, which complicates estimates for precipitation hardly distinguishable from blowing or drifting snow. Moreover, the snow mass balance in the sea ice system is still poorly understood, notably due to the complex structure of its surface. Quantitatively assessing the snow distribution on sea ice and its connection to the sea ice surface features is an important step to remove the snow mass balance uncertainties (i.e., snow transport contribution) in the Arctic environment. In this work we introduce snowBedFoam 1.0., a physics-based snow transport model implemented in the open-source fluid dynamics software OpenFOAM. We combine the numerical simulations with terrestrial laser scan observations of surface dynamics to simulate snow deposition in a MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) sea ice domain with a complicated structure typical for pressure ridges. The results demonstrate that a large fraction of snow accumulates in their vicinity, which compares favorably against scanner measurements. However, the approximations imposed by the numerical framework, together with potential measurement errors (precipitation), give rise to quantitative inaccuracies, which should be addressed in future work. The modeling of snow distribution on sea ice should help to better constrain precipitation estimates and more generally assess and predict snow and ice dynamics in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Responses of Boreal Forest Ecosystems and Permafrost to Climate Change and Disturbances: A Modeling Perspective

The north circumpolar region contains a large amount of carbon. This carbon storage is vulnerable due to permafrost degradation and wildfire disturbances under ongoing and projected climate change. Climate warming and wildfires change soil organic horizons gradually or abruptly, and modify permafrost thermal-hydrology and biogeochemistry, ecosystem structures, functions, and capability of sequestrating rising atmospheric CO2. Land models do not fully take accounts of these interactions and its complexity in the high latitude. This chapter describes a terrestrial ecosystem model with dynamic organic soil module (DOS-TEM) and its unique freezing-thawing algorithm, and presents key results of its applications mainly in boreal forests of Alaska. The DOS-TEM explicitly considers interactions of soil thermal and hydrological processes, permafrost degradation and the direct and indirect effects of wildfire disturbances, in addition to soil–plant C and N cycles. We first introduce four modules of DOS-TEM, focusing on its disturbance module and coupling with a dynamic organic soil module. Then we describe and validate DOS-TEM’s freezing-thawing algorithm and development based on two-directional Stefan algorithm (TDSA). Finally, we apply the DOS-TEM at site and region scales, with a focus on model ability to dynamically simulate soil organic thickness under warming and wildfires, and consequent impacts on permafrost in the Yukon River Basin. We conclude that land surface model development is urgently needed to include other critical landscape processes, such as thermalkarst and other disturbances, to synchronize thermal-hydrological-biogeochemical processes, and to incorporate an advanced understanding of biospheric feedbacks to atmosphere and ecosystems. Such a complexity of modeling scope is plausible with advancement of high performance computing.

Yi, Shuhua↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Large‐Storm Dominance in High‐Resolution GCMs and Observations Across the Western Contiguous United States

Abstract Extreme precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency across much of the land‐surface as the global climate warms, but such projections have typically relied on coarse‐resolution (100–250 km) general circulation models (GCMs). The ensemble of HighResMIP GCMs presents an opportunity to evaluate how a more finely resolved atmosphere and land‐surface might enhance the fidelity of the simulated contribution of large‐magnitude storms to total precipitation, particularly across topographically complex terrain. Here, the simulation of large‐storm dominance, that is, the number of wettest days to reach half of the total annual precipitation, is quantified across the western United States (WUS) using four GCMs within the HighResMIP ensemble and their coarse resolution counterparts. Historical GCM simulations (1950–2014) are evaluated against a baseline generated from station‐observed daily precipitation (4,803 GHCN‐D stations) and from three gridded, observationally based precipitation data sets that are coarsened to match the resolution of the GCMs. All coarse‐resolution simulations produce less large‐storm dominance than in observations across the WUS. For two of the four GCMs, bias in the median large‐storm dominance is reduced in the HighResMIP simulation, decreasing by as much as 62% in the intermountain west region. However, the other GCMs show little change or even an increase (+28%) in bias of median large‐storm dominance across multiple sub‐regions. The spread in differences with resolution amongst GCMs suggests that, in addition to resolution, model structure and parameterization of precipitation generating processes also contribute to bias in simulated large‐storm dominance.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗