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DOE OSTI2026

Dataset for manuscript "Rotational Memory Function of SPC/E water"

Memory effect are essential for dynamics of condensed materials and are responsible for non-exponential relaxation of correlation functions of dynamic variables through the memory function entering the memory equation. Memory functions of dipole rotations for polar liquids have never been calculated. We present here calculations of memory functions and single-dipole rotations and of the overall system dipole moment for SPC/E water measured by dielectric spectroscopy. The memory functions for single-particle and collective dynamics turn out to be nearly identical. This result validates theories of dielectric spectroscopy in terms of single-particle time correlation function and the connection between the collective and single-particle relaxation times in terms of the Kirkwood factor. The dataset includes single particle and system dipole moments, including their time-dependence.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Time-Evolving Chirality Loss in Molecular Photodissociation Monitored by X-ray Circular Dichroism Spectroscopy

In this work, the ultrafast photoinduced chirality loss of 2-iodobutane is studied theoretically by time- and frequency-resolved X-ray circular dichroism (TRXCD) spectroscopy. Following an optical excitation, the iodine atom dissociates from the chiral center, which we capture by quantum non-adiabatic molecular dynamics simulations. At variable time delays after the pump, the resonant X-ray pulse selectively probes the iodine and carbon atom involved in the chiral dissociation through a selected core-to-valence transition. The TRXCD signal at the iodine L 1 edge accurately captures the timing of C–I photodissociation and thereby chirality loss, c.a 70 fs. The strong electric dipole–electric quadrupole (ED–EQ) response makes this signal particularly sensitive to vibronic coherence at the high X-ray regime. At the carbon K-edges, the signals monitor the molecular chirality of the 2-butyl radical photoproduct and the spin state of the iodine atom. The ED–EQ response is masked under the strong electric dipole-magnetic dipole response, making this signal intuitive for the electronic population. The evolution of the core electronic states and its chiral sensitivity is discussed. Overall, the element-specific TRXCD signal provides a detailed picture of molecular dynamics and offers a unique sensitive window into the time-dependent chirality of molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS2008

Space Weather: What is it, and Why Should a Meteorologist Care?

"Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.

SaintCyr, Chris↗

DOE OSTI2025

Crystallographic Evidence of Size-Dependent Bond Flexibility in Metal–Organic Framework Nanocrystals

Size-dependent electronic, magnetic, and optical behavior suggests that metal–organic frameworks become softer materials as their particle sizes decrease, but direct evidence is lacking. Here, we report variable-temperature powder X-ray diffraction data of Fe(1,2,3-triazolate)2 particles that offer crystallographic insight into size-dependent bond flexibility. Rietveld refinement reveals size-dependent positive thermal expansion upon downsizing the crystalline domains from 178 to 9 nm, with a 6-fold increase from 16 MK –1 to 96 MK –1 . Here, this behavior occurs in tandem with size-dependent elongation of metal–ligand bonds and increasing thermal displacement parameters, consistent with pronounced metal-linker bond lability. We propose that these effects, as well as size-dependent annealing of crystallite sizes, originate from the high charge density and surface stress of smaller particles. Taken together, these results provide structural evidence that size reduction serves as a synthetic route to controlling the dynamic response of materials to external stimuli.

Crystals↗

DOE OSTI2020

Search for heavy Higgs bosons decaying to a top quark pair in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A search is presented for additional scalar (H) or pseudoscalar (A) Higgs bosons decaying to a top quark pair in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The data set analyzed corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb$^{-1}$ collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC. Final states with one or two charged leptons are considered. The invariant mass of the reconstructed top quark pair system and variables that are sensitive to the spin of the particles decaying into the top quark pair are used to search for signatures of the H or A bosons. The interference with the standard model top quark pair background is taken into account. A moderate signal-like deviation compatible with an A boson with a mass of 400 GeV is observed with a global significance of 1.9 standard deviations. New stringent constraints are reported on the strength of the coupling of the hypothetical bosons to the top quark, with the mass of the bosons ranging from 400 to 750 GeV and their total relative width from 0.5 to 25%. The results of the search are also interpreted in a minimal supersymmetric standard model scenario. Values of $m_\mathrm{A}$ from 400 to 700 GeV are probed, and a region with values of $\tan\beta$ below 1.0 to 1.5, depending on $m_\mathrm{A}$, is excluded at 95% confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility of measuring the speed of sound of the quark-gluon plasma from the multiplicity and mean 𝑝 𝑇 of ultracentral heavy-ion collisions

The mean transverse momentum ⟨𝑝 𝑇 ⟩ of hadrons has been observed experimentally and in numerical simulations to have a power-law dependence on the hadronic multiplicity 𝑁 in ultracentral relativistic heavy-ion collisions: ⟨𝑝 𝑇 ⟩∝𝑁 𝑏 UC . It has been put forward that this exponent 𝑏 UC is the speed of sound of quark-gluon plasma measured at a temperature determined from ⟨𝑝 𝑇 ⟩. We study step by step the connection between (i) the energy and entropy of hydrodynamic simulations and (ii) experimentally measurable observables. We show that an argument based on energy and entropy should yield an exponent equal to the pressure over energy density 𝑃/ɛ, rather than the speed of sound 𝑐$_s^2$; however, we also observe that ⟨𝑝 𝑇 ⟩ and 𝑁 are not sufficiently accurate proxies for the energy and entropy to make this possible in practice. From simulations, we find that the exponent 𝑏 UC is significantly different whether the “effective volume” is strictly constant or not, a condition that cannot be enforced experimentally. Additional tests using a modified equation of state find that the exponent 𝑏 UC exhibits a variable degree of correlations with the speed of sound and with 𝑃/ɛ, but is not an accurate measurement of either quantity in general.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Variational AutoEncoders Reveal Intensifying GPP Extremes in Continental United States based on CESM2 Simulations

Climate extremes significantly impact terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics, necessitating robust methods for detecting and analyzing anomalous behavior in plant productivity. This study presents a novel application of variational autoencoders (VAE) for identifying extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) from Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations across four AR6 regions in the Continental United States. We compare VAE-based anomaly detection with traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods across three time periods: 1850-80, 1950-80, and 2050-80 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The VAE architecture employs three dense layers and a latent space with input sequence length of 12 months, training on normalized GPP time series to reconstruct the GPP and identify anomalies based on reconstruction errors. Extreme events are defined using 5th percentile thresholds applied to both VAE and SSA anomalies. Results demonstrate strong regional agreement between VAE and SSA methods in spatial patterns of extreme event frequencies, despite VAE consistently producing higher threshold values (179-756 GgC for VAE vs. 100-784 GgC for SSA across regions and periods). Both methods reveal increasing magnitudes and frequencies of negative carbon cycle extremes toward 2050-80, particularly in Western and Central North America. The VAE approach shows comparable performance to established SSA techniques while offering computational advantages and enhanced capability for capturing non-linear temporal dependencies in carbon cycle variability. This research demonstrates the potential of deep learning approaches for extremes detection and provides a foundation for improved understanding of future carbon cycle risks under future conditions.

Sharma, Bharat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000266982487)↗

NASA NTRS2022

Groundwater Variability Across India, Under Contrasting Human and Natural Conditions

Characterizing local to regional scale water cycles and water resources will be crucial for achieving the United Nations' water-related Sustainable Developmental Goals. However, quantification and understanding of groundwater extraction across scales have been hampered by inadequate water usage reporting and limited information on irrigation practices. Here we analyze observations from ∼15,000 groundwater monitoring wells and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites together with irrigation, agricultural, and meteorological datasets to show how drought-induced coupling between natural and anthropogenic groundwater storage variations has caused sustainability challenges in India, the world's biggest consumer of groundwater for irrigation. Notably, the mechanisms and consequences of such coupling differ significantly depending on aquifer types. In Andhra Pradesh's hard rock aquifer, groundwater declines have been limited, despite the nearly constant water scarcity that its farmers face. Moreover, its free farm power policy involves an annual irrigation energy consumption of 26 billion kWh that costs US$ 2.5 billion, possibly unparalleled compared to any other part of the world of similar size (0.27 million km2). In West Bengal's highly permeable alluvial aquifer, the water table is declining rapidly (15 cm/yr) due to a policy that encourages irrigation. Situated between these two states, Odisha's aquifer shows substantial resilience to drought, owing to the state's relatively natural landscape and forest restoration policy. The findings of this study provide new insights to understand the divergent aspects of groundwater irrigation in north versus south India, which can enable development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to avert the looming water crisis.

Dileep K Panda↗

NASA NTRS2002

Astronauts Need Their Rest Too: Sleep-Wake Actigraphy and Light Exposure During Space Flight

The success and effectiveness of human space flight depends on astronauts' ability to maintain a high level of cognitive performance and vigilance. This alert state ensures the proper operation of sophisticated instrumentation. An important way for humans to remedy fatigue and maintain alertness is to get plenty of rest. Astronauts, however, commonly experience difficulty sleeping while in space. During flight, they may also experience disruption of the body's circadian rhythm - the natural phases the body goes through every day as we oscillate between states of high activity during the waking day and recuperation, rest, and repair during nighttime sleep. Both of these factors are associated with impairment of alertness and performance, which could have important consequences during a mission in space. The human body was designed to sleep at night and be alert and active during the day. We receive these cues from the time of day or amount of light, such as the rising or setting of the sun. However, in the environment of the Space Shuttle or the International Space Station where light levels are highly variable, the characteristics of a 24-hour light/dark cycle are not present to cue the astronauts' bodies about what time of the day it is. Astronauts orbiting Earth see a sunset and sunrise every 90 minutes, sending potentially disruptive signals to the area of the brain that regulates sleep. On STS-107, researchers will measure sleep-wake activity with state-of-the-art technology to quantify how much sleep astronauts obtain in space. Because light is the most powerful time cue to the body's circadian system, individual light exposure patterns of the astronauts will also be monitored to determine if light exposure is associated with sleep disruption. The results of this research could lead to the development of a new treatment for sleep disturbances, enabling crewmembers to avoid the decrements in alertness and performance due to sleep deprivation. What we learn about sleep in space informs treatment for earthbound populations, such as the elderly and insomniacs, who experience frequent sleep disturbances or altered sleep patterns.

Czeisler, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2001

Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model

Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

Miller, Ron↗

NASA NTRS2002

Latitude-Dependent Effects in the Stellar Wind of Eta Carinae

The Homunculus reflection nebula around eta Carinae provides the rare opportunity to observe the spectrum of a star from more than one direction. In the case of eta Car, the nebula's geometry is known well enough to infer how wind profiles vary with latitude. We present STIS spectra of several positions in the Homunculus, showing directly that eta Car has an aspherical and axisymmetric stellar wind. P Cygni absorption in Balmer lines depends on latitude, with relatively high velocities and strong absorption near the polar axis. Stronger absorption at high latitudes is surprising, and it suggests higher mass flux toward the poles, perhaps resulting from equatorial gravity darkening on a rotating star. Reflected profiles of He I lines are more puzzling, and offer clues to eta Car's wind geometry and ionization structure. During eta Car's high-excitation state in March 2000, the wind had a fast, dense polar wind, with higher ionization at low latitudes. Older STIS data obtained since 1998 reveal that this global stellar-wind geometry changes during eta Car's 5.5 year cycle, and may suggest that this star s spectroscopic events are shell ejections. Whether or not a companion star triggers these outbursts remains ambiguous. The most dramatic changes in the wind occur at low latitudes, while the dense polar wind remains relatively undisturbed during an event. The apparent stability of the polar wind also supports the inferred bipolar geometry. The wind geometry and its variability have critical implications for understanding the 5.5 year cycle and long-term variability, but do not provide a clear alternative to the binary hypothesis for generating eta Car s X-rays.

Smith, Nathan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Weld Residual Stress Modeling System in BlackBear

This report presents enhancements to the MOOSE-based BlackBear application aimed at improving its capability to simulate welding and other thermo-mechanical manufacturing processes. Two primary avenues of improvement are pursued. First, to enhance user accessibility, we introduce a centralized default block restriction mechanism that ensures coverage checks are performed within user-specified default blocks. This default setting is applied consistently to all block-describable objects, such as variables, kernels, and more. In addition, we develop a modular action for moving heat source simulations, which integrates path file parsing, subdomain modification, and heat source kernel enforcement into a single, streamlined configuration. Second, to improve solver robustness, we implement an alternative method for assigning initial conditions to the updated active domain during the simulation, thereby enhancing convergence behavior. To validate the framework, we design and conduct several benchmark simulations, including heat conduction with progressive material addition, linear elasticity with time-dependent material deposition, and viscoplasticity model with isotropic hardening under similar conditions. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework through large-scale thermo-mechanical welding simulations in both two and three dimensions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optical vibrational spectroscopic signatures of ammonium diuranate process parameters

Ammonium diuranate (ADU) is commonly encountered in the nuclear fuel cycle; however, previous investigations have shown that ADU is a complex mixture of distinct compounds. Moreover, production parameters are known to heavily influence the composition of the resulting ADU. Here, we examine four samples of ADU prepared at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and one sample of ADU made at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), with the goal of further characterizing and elucidating the effect of processing parameters such as stir rate, strike direction, and temperature on material composition. Process parameters during ADU precipitation at ORNL and PNNL were well documented, and we relate process variables to optical vibrational spectroscopic signatures observed using Raman and infrared (IR) spectroscopy. In addition, powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) reveals differences in the solid-phase composition of ADU precipitates, but we find that the primary phase is similar to the uranyl oxyhydroxyhydrate mineral metaschoepite. Despite the significant phase contributions of a metaschoepite-like phase, spectroscopic evidence of both nitrate and ammonium are observed for all samples. To gain a more holistic understanding of spectroscopic features of process parameters in ADU, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed and results in observable signatures that relate to the stir rate used during synthesis. These results provide further information about the process-dependence of ADU precipitate composition.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Kinetics of the benzyl + HO 2 and benzoxyl + OH barrierless association reactions: fate of the benzyl hydroperoxide adduct under combustion and atmospheric conditions

Radical–radical association reactions are challenging to address theoretically due to difficulties finding the bottleneck that variationally minimizes the reactive flux. For this purpose, the variable reaction coordinate (VRC) formulation of the variational transition state theory (VTST) represents an appropriate tool. Here, we revisited the kinetics of two radical–radical association reactions of importance in combustion modelling and poly-aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) chemistry by performing VRC calculations: benzyl + HO 2 and benzoxyl + OH, both forming the adduct benzyl hydroperoxide. Our calculated rate constants are significantly lower than those previously reported based on VTST calculations, which results from a more efficient minimization of the reactive flux through the bottleneck achieved by the VRC formulation. Both reactions show different trends in the variation of their rate constants with temperature. We observed that if the pair of single occupied molecular orbitals (SOMOs) of the associating radicals show a similar nature, i.e. similar character, and thereby a small energy gap, a highly stabilized transition state structure is formed as the result of a very efficient SOMO–SOMO overlap, which may cancel out the free energy bottleneck for the formation of the adduct and result in large rate constants with a negative temperature dependence. This is the case of the benzoxyl and OH radical pair, whose SOMOs show O 2p nature with an energy gap of 20.2 kcal mol –1 . On the other hand, the benzyl and HO 2 radical pair shows lower rate constants with a positive temperature dependence due to the larger difference between both SOMOs (a 28.9 kcal mol –1 energy gap) as a consequence of the contribution of the multiple resonance structures of the benzyl radical. The reverse dissociation rate constants were also calculated using multi-structural torsional anharmonicity partition functions, which were not included in previous work, and the results show a much slower dissociation of benzyl hydroperoxide. Our work may help to improve kinetic models of interest in combustion and PAH formation, as well as to gain further understanding of radical–radical association reactions, which are ubiquitous in different environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tropical High Cloud Feedback Relationships to Climate Sensitivity

Clouds constitute a large portion of uncertainty in predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). While low cloud feedbacks have been the focus of intermodel studies due to their high variability among global climate models, tropical high cloud feedbacks also exhibit considerable uncertainty. Here, we apply the cloud radiative kernel technique of Zelinka et al. to 22 models across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles to survey tropical high cloud feedbacks and analyze their relationship to ECS. We find that the net high cloud feedback and its altitude and optical depth feedback components are significantly positively correlated with ECS in the tropical mean. On the other hand, the tropical mean high cloud amount feedback is not correlated with ECS. These relationships are most pronounced outside of areas of strong climatological ascent, suggesting the importance of thin cirrus feedbacks. Finally, we explore connections between high cloud feedbacks, climate sensitivity, and mean state high cloud properties. In general, high ECS models are cloudier in the upper troposphere but have a thinner high cloud population. Furthermore, we find that having more thin cirrus in the mean state relates to more positive high cloud altitude and optical depth feedbacks, and it either amplifies or dampens the high cloud amount feedback depending on the large-scale dynamical regime (amplifying in descent and dampening in ascent). In summary, our analysis highlights the importance of tropical high cloud feedbacks for driving intermodel spread in ECS and suggests that mean state high cloud characteristics might provide a unique opportunity for observationally constraining high cloud feedbacks.

atmosphere↗

NASA NTRS2019

The Sub-Neptune Desert and Its Dependence on Stellar Type: Controlled by Lifetime X-Ray Irradiation

Short-period sub-Neptunes with substantial volatile envelopes are among the most common type of known exoplanets. However, recent studies of the Kepler population have suggested a dearth of sub-Neptunes on highly irradiated orbits, where they are vulnerable to atmospheric photoevaporation. Physically, we expect this "photoevaporation desert" to depend on the total lifetime X-ray and extreme ultraviolet flux, the main drivers of atmospheric escape. In this work, we study the demographics of sub-Neptunes as a function of lifetime exposure to high-energy radiation and host-star mass. We find that for a given present-day insolation, planets orbiting a 0.3 solar mass star experience approximately 100 times more X-ray flux over their lifetimes versus a 1.2 solar mass star. Defining the photoevaporation desert as a region consistent with zero occurrence at 2 sigma, the onset of the desert happens for integrated X-ray fluxes greater than 1.43 times 10 (sup 22) to 8.23 times 10 (sup 20) as a function of planetary radii for 1.8 to 4 Earth radius. We also compare the location of the photoevaporation desert for different stellar types. We find much greater variability in the desert onset in the bolometric flux space compared to the integrated X-ray flux space, suggestive of photoevaporation driven by steady-state stellar X-ray emissions as the dominant control on desert location. Finally, we report tentative evidence for the sub-Neptune valley, first seen around Sun-like stars, for M&K dwarfs. The discovery of additional planets around low-mass stars from surveys such as the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission will enable detailed exploration of these trends.

Planets and Satellites: Gaseous Planets↗

DOE OSTI2025

Aerosol Influences on Cloud Water: Insights From ARM EPCAPE Observations With Explainable Machine Learning

This study employs an explainable machine learning (ML) framework (XGBoost-SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis) to investigate controlling factors on cloud liquid water path (LWP) using EPCAPE observations near the California coast. Aerosols are found to be the dominant factor explaining LWP variability, surpassing meteorological factors (MFs). By isolating aerosol effects from meteorological influences, the ML reveals a negative linear relationship between LWP and cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) in log space, likely driven by entrainment drying via evaporation-entrainment feedback. This aligns with the negative regime of the inverted-V relationship reported in previous studies, while no positive LWP responses are found due to a limited number of precipitating cases in EPCAPE. Furthermore, the sensitivity of LWP to Nd shows a non-linear dependence on MFs like moisture contrast between surface and free troposphere and lower-tropospheric stability. This occurs due to the interplay between the MFs' direct effects on entrainment drying and indirect effects through LWP adjustments.

EPCAPE observations↗