SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “solar forecasting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 811 records · Page 45

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Abstract Space Weather is the study of the dynamics of the coupled Solar‐Terrestrial environment, as these dynamics impact technological systems and human activity. This paper reviews a selection of the advances, challenges, and new opportunities for magnetospheric space weather, and while the focus is on specific phenomena, many other aspects of space weather will have similar challenges and needs. As a scientific field with direct applications, the field of space weather is partly driven by imperatives from both policy and operations. We provide an introduction to some of the context in which the field exists and discuss how this might shape future developments and norms within the space weather enterprise. We briefly examine benchmarking, as a policy and operationally driven activity, as it provides immediate societal relevance and an opportunity to stretch scientific understanding. As numerical space weather prediction now becomes routine, and exascale computing is in the near future, we identify challenges relating to computational expense and big data, capturing and accounting for uncertainties, and specification of boundary conditions. Here, as with the observations supporting numerical space weather prediction, the key challenge lies in extending the lead time of predictions. We also discuss the role of data, particularly in regard to model validation and empirical modeling. Due to the growing societal impact of space weather, we also examine the relationships between space weather and its terrestrial counterpart and look at the importance of continuous evaluation, monitoring progress in predictive capability, and communication with researchers, forecasters, and end users.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Indoor and Outdoor Test Results for 'DUSST', a Low-Cost, Low-Maintenance PV Soiling Sensor

Soiling can cause significant losses to photovoltaic systems, and therefore it is often measured for the purposes of predicting long-term energy forecasts or for monitoring real time performance and triggering maintenance events as needed. Currently, the most common soiling monitoring technologies are soiling stations that use the electrical outputs of a regularly cleaned PV device and of a naturally soiled PV device to quantify soiling. As part of a new class of low-cost and low-maintenance soiling stations NREL has previously presented 'DUSST'. DUSST projects a collimated monochromatic light source through a glass surface (exposed similarly to the PV modules that need to be monitored) and on to a light detector to measure the intensity of the transmitted light. As the glass surface naturally soils, the losses are quantified by comparing this soiled reading with a calibrated reading under baseline clean condition. This work presents the ongoing improvement of DUSST and the ongoing indoor and outdoor validation of this new soiling sensor.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2019

Advances in Space Radiation Physics and Transport

The space radiation environment is a complex mixture of particle types and energies originating from sources inside and outside of the galaxy. These environments may be modified by the heliospheric and geomagnetic conditions as well as planetary bodies and vehicle or habitat mass shielding. In low Earth orbit (LEO), the geomagnetic field deflects a portion of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and all but the most intense solar particle events (SPE). There are also dynamic belts of trapped electrons and protons with low to medium energy and intense particle count rates. In deep space, the GCR exposure is more severe than in LEO and varies inversely with solar activity. Unpredictable solar storms also present an acute risk to astronauts if adequate shielding is not provided. Near planetary surfaces such as the Earth, moon or Mars, secondary particles are produced when the ambient deep space radiation environment interacts with these surfaces and/or atmospheres. These secondary particles further complicate the local radiation environment and modify the associated health risks. Characterizing the radiation fields in this vast array of scenarios and environments is a challenging task and is currently accomplished with a combination of computational models and dosimetry. The computational tools include models for the ambient space radiation environment, mass shielding geometry, and atomic and nuclear interaction parameters. These models are then coupled to a radiation transport code to describe the radiation field at the location of interest within a vehicle or habitat. Many new advances in these models have been made in the last decade, and the present review article focuses on the progress and contributions made by workers and collaborators at NASA in the same time frame. Although great progress has been made, and models continue to improve, significant gaps remain and are discussed in the context of planned future missions. Of particular interest is the juxtaposition of various review committee findings regarding the accuracy and gaps of combined space radiation environment, physics, and transport models with the progress achieved over the past decade. While current models are now fully capable of characterizing radiation environments in the broad range of forecasted mission scenarios, it should be remembered that uncertainties still remain and need to be addressed.

Space radiation↗

NASA NTRS1997

Mir Cooperative Solar Array Flight Performance Data and Computational Analysis

The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) was developed jointly by the United States (US) and Russia to provide approximately 6 kW of photovoltaic power to the Russian space station Mir. The MCSA was launched to Mir in November 1995 and installed on the Kvant-1 module in May 1996. Since the MCSA photovoltaic panel modules (PPMs) are nearly identical to those of the International Space Station (ISS) photovoltaic arrays, MCSA operation offered an opportunity to gather multi-year performance data on this technology prior to its implementation on ISS. Two specially designed test sequences were executed in June and December 1996 to measure MCSA performance. Each test period encompassed 3 orbital revolutions whereby the current produced by the MCSA channels was measured. The temperature of MCSA PPMs was also measured. To better interpret the MCSA flight data, a dedicated FORTRAN computer code was developed to predict the detailed thermal-electrical performance of the MCSA. Flight data compared very favorably with computational performance predictions. This indicated that the MCSA electrical performance was fully meeting pre-flight expectations. There were no measurable indications of unexpected or precipitous MCSA performance degradation due to contamination or other causes after 7 months of operation on orbit. Power delivered to the Mir bus was lower than desired as a consequence of the retrofitted power distribution cabling. The strong correlation of experimental and computational results further bolsters the confidence level of performance codes used in critical ISS electric power forecasting. In this paper, MCSA flight performance tests are described as well as the computational modeling behind the performance predictions.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Sensitivity of Lower Stratospheric Assimilated Ozone on Error Covariance Modeling and Data Selection

Assimilated ozone is produced at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office by blending ozone retrieved from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) measurements into an off-line transport model. The current system tends to overestimate the amount of lower stratospheric ozone. This is a region where ozone plays a key role in the forcing of climate. A biased ozone field in this region will adversely impact calculations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, when used as a first guess in retrievals, the values determined from satellite observations. Since these are all important applications of assimilated ozone products, effort is being directed towards reducing this bias. The SBUV ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone in the lower stratosphere, and its vertical distribution in particular, are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. Accordingly, the sensitivity of the assimilated lower stratospheric ozone fields to changes in the TOMS error-covariance modeling and the SBUV data selection has been investigated. The use of a spatially correlated TOMS error covariance model led to improvements in the product. However, withholding the SBUV/2 data for the layer between 63 and 126 hPa typically degraded the product, a result which vindicates the use of this layer ozone product, despite its known errors. These efforts to improve the lower stratospheric distribution will be extended to include a more advanced forecast error covariance model, and by assimilating ozone products from new instruments on Envisat and EOS Aura.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-resolution climate model datasets for energy infrastructure planning in a renewable-dependent future

Electrification and renewables deployment efforts are amplifying the interdependence of the climate and energy systems. Increases in climate model resolution, which is now approaching that of reanalysis datasets and operational weather forecast models, present a unique opportunity to use future climate projections for energy infrastructure planning. In this Perspective, we review recent developments in high-resolution climate modeling, which have been driven by increased computing power and advanced software tools. We then look ahead to discuss how high-resolution climate data can be used to plan for a renewable-dependent future, and envision a unified climate-energy model framework that captures the two-way feedbacks between these interdependent systems.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mesoscale Modeling to Characterize Eagle Soaring Habitat

Uncovering drivers of risk is crucial to understanding interactions between wildlife and wind turbines, and identifying options for impact minimization. These drivers tie to co-variates linked to behavior and movement patterns that allow us to estimate locations and periods of risk. For volant species, atmospheric flow can have significant influence on flight patterns. For obligate soaring birds, like golden eagles, updraft velocities can inform where eagles are likely to travel, at what altitude, and where conditions are not likely sufficient to sustain soaring flight. This has been an active area of study in recent years, using relatively coarse atmospheric data generally at the 20km x 20km scale or larger. Leveraging a 20-year dataset from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) (https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/weather-research-and-forecasting-model), we are quantifying vertical velocities across the continental United States at a 2km x 2km resolution. Wind resource data sets originally were static maps showing the mean annual wind speed over an area. However, for these data sets to be optimally used for various applications they must be high-resolution time series, seamlessly span large geographic contexts, and account for uncertainty in wind speed. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is producing public available datasets that meet these criteria and will be bias corrected to yield the most accurate wind resource data. This effort is an augment to the current WIND Toolkit which houses a high resolution data set. In the new iteration of the WIND Toolkit, a 20-year dataset will be used to improve the accuracy and estimate uncertainty using ensemble and machine-learning techniques. The resulting product will be the most accurate dataset of its size and at a 2km x 2km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. Through this work, a mesoscale vertical velocity layer will be produced by calculating the likelihood of orographic updraft and thermal updraft conditions across the continental United States. Specifically, we will use WRF model output combined with digital elevation maps to predict updrafts and then determine if vertical velocities are sufficient to support Golden Eagle soaring and gliding. Ultimately this data layer will be made available as a GIS layer in the Wind Prospector (maps.nrel.gov/wind-prospector/) tool or a similar framework. Data that will be incorporated include wind speed, direction temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, air density, precipitation rate, solar radiation, atmospheric stability, skin temperature, and upward heat flux. These products will advance research on interactions between volant species and wind energy by providing open access to highly resolved data with uncertainty quantification not previously available at this scale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Model for Evaluating the Configuration and Dispatch of PV Plus Battery Power Plants

An open-source model was developed to optimize energy storage operation for photovoltaic- (PV-) plus-battery systems with AC-coupled and DC-coupled configurations. It includes the ability to use forecast energy prices to optimize battery charge and discharge on a rolling time horizon. The model allows for exploration of different configurations, including capital costs, inverter performance, dispatch flexibility, and capturing otherwise clipped energy for the DC-coupled system. The model can run 20 full years of hourly data in approximately two seconds, allowing comparison of a large number of configurations. We applied the model in a test case demonstrating reduced inverter clipping for DC-coupled systems and yielded slightly higher overall value than AC-coupled systems, with an approximately 2 percent increase in internal rate of return or benefit/cost ratio. Our results show that at current estimated prices for lithium-ion battery systems, large-scale PV-plus-battery plants are economically viable under the right conditions, with the configuration playing a role in system flexibility and performance. This model provides the ability for project developers, industry professionals, and researchers to use readily available software to quickly evaluate and design these systems.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detection of supernova magnitude fluctuations induced by large-scale structure

The peculiar velocities of supernovae and their host galaxies are correlated with the large-scale structure of the Universe, and can be used to constrain the growth rate of structure and test the cosmological model. In this work, we measure the correlation statistics of the large-scale structure traced by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Bright Galaxy Survey Data Release 1 sample, and magnitude fluctuations of type Ia supernova from the Pantheon+ compilation across redshifts z < 0.1. We find a detection of the cross-correlation signal between galaxies and type Ia supernova magnitudes. Fitting the normalised growth rate of structure f sigma_8 to the auto- and cross-correlation function measurements we find f sigma_8 = 0.384 +0.094 -0.157, which is consistent with the Planck LambdaCDM model prediction, and indicates that the supernova magnitude fluctuations are induced by peculiar velocities. Using a large ensemble of N-body simulations, we validate our methodology, calibrate the covariance of the measurements, and demonstrate that our results are insensitive to supernova selection effects. We highlight the potential of this methodology for measuring the growth rate of structure, and forecast that the next generation of type Ia supernova surveys will improve f sigma_8 constraints by a further order of magnitude.

Nguyen, A. [Swinburne U., Ctr. Astrophys. Supercom↗

DOE OSTI2024

Planning Roadmap for DER Integration in India: Industry Best Practices and Resource Guide

Ensuring safe, reliable, cost-effective DER integration at scale requires holistic planning, broad stakeholder engagement, and should address key development areas such as standards adoption, equipment testing and certification, interoperability and cybersecurity, interconnection procedures, and advanced forecasting and DER management. Each of these areas currently represent significant challenges for utilities, regulators, OEMs, developers, and even consumers worldwide. India has already seen significant growth of DERs and has announced targets for substantial growth yet to come, with the potential for DERs to make up a non-negligible portion of the country's overall generation capacity. As such, it is of critical importance that Indian stakeholders consider the potential impacts of wide-spread adoption of DERs and take preemptive action related to the five development areas listed here, among others. India should consider strategies including the adoption of key DER standards related to interconnection, testing, and cybersecurity; enabling effective and secure communication channels for DER interoperability; testing and certifying DER equipment in accredited testing laboratories; building robust, streamlined interconnection procedures; and revamping legacy system planning structures to incorporate DERs in a holistic planning framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Intermediate-mass Early-type Disk Galaxies in the Virgo Cluster. II. Near-Infrared Spectra and Evidence for Differences in Evolution

We discuss near-infrared (NIR) slit spectra of six early-type disk galaxies in the Virgo Cluster that were examined previously at visible/red wavelengths. Despite having similar intrinsic luminosities, colors, and morphologies, the NIR spectrophotometric properties of these galaxies indicate that they are not a homogeneous ensemble differing only in terms of luminosity-weighted age and metallicity. While the depth of the CO(2,0) band is consistent with the centers of these galaxies having solar or slightly sub-solar luminosity-weighted metallicities, galaxy-to-galaxy variations in the depth of the Na i 2.21 μm doublet are found, with Na i2.21 μm lines in three galaxies (NGC 4491, NGC 4584, and NGC 4620) that are deeper than those predicted for a solar chemical mixture and a solar-neighborhood mass function. In contrast, the Ca i2.26 μm triplet shows good galaxy-to-galaxy agreement but tends to be deeper than the model prediction. Considering the depth of the NaD lines, the deep Na i2.21 μm lines are tentatively attributed to a bottom-heavy mass function. This is counter to observed trends between mass function slope and velocity dispersion, and so the possibility of a super-solar [Na/Fe] is also discussed. Two of the three galaxies with deep Na i 2.21 μm (NGC 4584 and NGC 4620) have Sérsic exponents that are consistent with a classical bulge. As for NGC 4491, its central NIR spectrum contains prominent emission lines. The relative strengths of Brγ and H{sub 2}S(1), the presence of [Fe ii] emission, and the mid-infrared spectral-energy distribution are all consistent with intense recent star formation near the center of that galaxy. The NIR spectrum of NGC 4584 is devoid of line emission in the NIR, suggesting that star formation does not power the emission detected at visible wavelengths from that galaxy. Wavelengths that contain the Ballick–Ramsey C{sub 2} band at 1.76 μm are matched by moderately metal-poor E-MILES model spectra with an age of 2 Gyr. The radial age trends in these galaxies are in the opposite sense to those in late-type disk galaxies, and it is concluded that they have evolved in a cluster environment for at least several Gyr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Quantifying the Aerosol Semi-Direct Effect in the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM

Aerosols such as black carbon, dust, and some organic carbon species both scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation. This direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF) redistributes solar energy both by cooling the surface and warming the atmosphere. As a result, these aerosols affect atmospheric stability and cloud cover (the semi-direct effect, or SDE). Furthermore, in regions with persistent high loadings of absorbing aerosols (e.g. Asia), regional circulation patterns may be altered, potentially resulting in changes in precipitation patterns. Here we investigate aerosol-climate coupling using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in which we have implemented an online version of the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. GOCART includes representations of the sources, sinks, and chemical transformation of externally mixed dust, sea salt, sulfate, and carbonaceous aerosols. We examine a series of free-running ensemble climate simulations of the present-day period (2000-2009) forced by observed sea surface temperatures to determine the impact of aerosols on the model climate. The SDE and response of each simulation is determined by differencing with respect to the control simulation (no aerosol forcing). In a free-running model, any estimate of the SDE includes changes in clouds due both to atmospheric heating from aerosols and changes in circulation. To try and quantify the SDE without these circulation changes we then examine the DARF and SDE in GEOS-5 with prescribed meteorological analyses introduced by the MERRA analysis. By doing so, we are able to examine changes in model clouds that occur on shorter scales (six hours). In the GEOS-5 data assimilation system (DAS), the analysis is defined as the best estimate of the atmospheric state at any given time, and it is determined by optimally combining a first-guess short-term GCM forecast with all available observations. The Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) is added to the model forecast tendencies to align them with the analysis every six hours, thus preventing longer timescale feedbacks due to the aerosol forcing. We calculate the SDE by comparing model runs with and without aerosols, and the difference in the IAU between these runs is a useful metric with which to evaluate the impact of the SDE on the model atmosphere and clouds. Decreasing the IAU indicates that the aerosol direct and semi-direct effects act to reduce the bias between the model and observations and vice versa.

Randles, Cynthia A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Selection of high-redshift Lyman-Break Galaxies from broadband and wide photometric surveys

In this paper, we investigate the possibility of selecting high-redshift Lyman-Break Galaxies (LBG) using current and future broadband wide photometric surveys, such as the Ultraviolet Near Infrared Optical Northern Survey (UNIONS) or the Vera C. Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), using a Random Forest algorithm. This work is conducted in the context of future large-scale structure spectroscopic surveys like DESI-II, the next phase of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), which will start around 2029.We use deep imaging data from the Hyper Suprime Camera (HSC) and the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Large Area U-band Deep Survey (CLAUDS) on the COSMOS and XMM-LSS fields. To predict the selection performance of LBGs with image quality similar to UNIONS, we degrade the u,g,r,i and z bands to UNIONS depth.The Random Forest algorithm is trained with the u,g,r,i and z bands to classify LBGs in the 2.5 < z < 3.5 range.We find that fixing a target density budget of 1,100 deg$^{-2}$, the Random Forest approach gives a density of z > 2 targets of 873 deg$^{-2}$, and a density of 493 deg$^{-2}$ of confirmed LBGs after spectroscopic confirmation with DESI. This UNIONS-like selection was tested in a dedicated spectroscopic observation campaign of 1,000 targets with DESI on the COSMOS field, providing a safe spectroscopic sample with a mean redshift of 3. This sample is used to derive forecasts for DESI-II, assuming a sky coverage of 5,000 deg$^{2}$. We predict uncertainties on Alcock-Paczynski parameters α$_{⊥}$ and α$_{∥}$ to be 0.7% and 1% for 2.6 < z < 3.2, resulting in a potential 2% measurement of the dark energy fraction at high redshift. Additionally, we estimate the uncertainty in local non-Gaussianity and predict σ$_{fNL}$ ≈ 7, which would be comparable to the current best precision achieved by Planck. The latter forecast suggests that achieving the precision required to place stringent constraints on inflationary models (σ$_{fNL}$ ≈ 1) using spectroscopic galaxy surveys necessitates the development of a next-generation (Stage V) spectroscopic survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stabilizing the Power System in 2035 and Beyond: Evolving from Grid-Following to Grid-Forming Distributed Inverter Controllers (Final Technical Report)

Under existing grid operations, large synchronous generators provide sufficient rotational inertia to form a rigid backbone for the bulk power system. With photovoltaics (PV) forecasted to provide more than 600 GW of generation by 2050 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot Initiative objectives, however, it is clear that power electronic inverters will play a dominant role in future systems, and low-inertia stability must be ensured to maintain system reliability. Today, the risks to system stability can be observed on geographically small islands, such as Hawaii, which contain a relatively large amount of installed PV. These risks stem from a fundamental shortcoming of contemporary control strategies—existing inverter controllers cannot guarantee grid stability. Given that future power systems driven by sustainable resources will be characterized by low inertia, locations such as Hawaii provide a glimpse into the obstacles facing future power systems. Considering these challenges, the aim of this project was to develop and demonstrate distributed inverter controllers that enable the reliable control of low-inertia power systems with hundreds of gigawatts of integrated PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Needs to Support the Reconstruction Strategy of Ukraine

Ukraine has been facing difficult times. Russia started a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, and has caused huge human and infrastructure losses. As a result of the invasion, more than 8 million people left their homes. The Russian army has targeted Ukrainian energy sources, destroying or damaging over 50% of thermal power generation capacity (coal and gas), 30% of solar generation, and 90% of wind generation. The Russians are also threatening Ukrainian energy security, as they currently control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest. In addition, Russia has destroyed 121,000 buildings, including 5,300 multistory buildings - more buildings than Ukraine built during the past five years. The occupiers destroyed or damaged 343 district heat boiler stations (destroyed 12 / damaged 331) and 8 CHPs (destroyed 4/ damaged 4). There is no doubt that Ukraine will be able to protect its sovereignty and restore its territorial integrity; however, this will be a long process. The Government of Ukraine needs to simultaneously focus on many issues, from waging war to the restoration of electricity, water, and heat supply in the territories close to the front line. In addition to these time-sensitive issues, the government also needs to plan a long term multi-sector strategy for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine initiated a broad-based political process for recovery at the International Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2022) in Lugano, Switzerland. Prior to URC 2022, Ukraine applied for EU membership on February 28 and was granted the status of candidate country by the European Council on June 23, 2022. More than 40 nations are fully committed to supporting Ukraine throughout its path from early to long-term recovery. In addition, these countries link a successful recovery to Ukraine’s European future (URC, 2022a). The reconstruction process will be long. The government also recognizes that it is not enough to build energy infrastructure back – it should be built back better. The government is committed to building a more sustainable and cleaner energy sector. Energy modeling can provide important insights into paths to decarbonize Ukraine’s economy while rebuilding it after the war. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IEF) work on modeling decarbonization scenarios in the energy sector of Ukraine. The teams focus on the heat sector, which includes district heat, autonomous and individual heating, and energy consumption by final energy consumption sectors, including buildings. Since the teams use world-class integrated assessment models, other sectors will be analyzed as well. The purpose of the document is to describe the needs of key Ukrainian ministries in modeling the reconstruction process. The scope of this document is limited to modeling energy consumption by the power and heat sectors, final energy consumption by buildings, and GHG emissions from these two sectors. The rest of this policy memo is organized as follows. After this introduction, Chapter 2 discusses key provisions of the reconstruction strategy with a focus on energy, buildings, heat supply, environment, and European integration aspirations. Section 3 provides an overview of recent developments and key decisions of the Government of Ukraine in the area of energy efficiency and decarbonization. Finally, Section 4 provides key suggestions on how PNNL and IEF can help the Government of Ukraine in developing strategic documents.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Vertically Resolved Canopy Improves Chemical Transport Model Predictions of Ozone Deposition to North Temperate Forests

Abstract Dry deposition is the second largest tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) sink and occurs through stomatal and nonstomatal pathways. Current O 3 uptake predictions are limited by the simplistic big‐leaf schemes commonly used in chemical transport models (CTMs) to parameterize deposition. Such schemes fail to reproduce observed O 3 fluxes over terrestrial ecosystems, highlighting the need for more realistic treatment of surface‐atmosphere exchange in CTMs. We address this need by linking a resolved canopy model (1D Multi‐Layer Canopy CHemistry and Exchange Model, MLC‐CHEM) to the GEOS‐Chem CTM and use this new framework to simulate O 3 fluxes over three north temperate forests. We compare results with in situ measurements from four field studies and with standalone, observationally constrained MLC‐CHEM runs to test current knowledge of O 3 deposition and its drivers. We show that GEOS‐Chem overpredicts observed O 3 fluxes across all four studies by up to 2×, whereas the resolved‐canopy models capture observed diel profiles of O 3 deposition and in‐canopy concentrations to within 10%. Relative humidity and solar irradiance are strong O 3 flux drivers over these forests, and uncertainties in those fields provide the largest remaining source of model deposition biases. Flux partitioning analysis shows that: (a) nonstomatal loss accounts for 60% of O 3 deposition on average; (b) in‐canopy chemistry makes only a small contribution to total O 3 fluxes; and (c) the CTM big‐leaf treatment overestimates O 3 ‐driven stomatal loss and plant phytotoxicity in these temperate forests by up to 7×. Results motivate the application of fully online vertically explicit canopy schemes in CTMs for improved O 3 predictions.

Vermeuel, Michael P. [Department of Soil, Water, a↗

DOE OSTI2026

Unified Modeling Architecture for Load Management in Extreme Heat: The New York City Case

Integration of renewable resources to meet growing energy demand is becoming a global priority under decarbonization mandates. This study contributes to ongoing efforts on this key subject by assessing the feasibility of using coastal-urban renewable energy resources, namely, offshore wind and rooftop photovoltaic systems, to meet electricity demand of New York City during the intense recent heat wave period of June 2025. A unified modeling framework, based on the urbanized weather research and forecasting model, is used to simulate climate, renewable resources, and energy demand variables. Findings show significant energy load mismatch of approximately 1150 GWh over the month, between the demand and the combined renewable generation outcome. Three storage integration scenarios are analyzed to mitigate the deficits, reducing said deficits by a minimum of approximately 9% over the duration of the month. This study provides a transferable modeling framework tool for evaluating renewable integration in dense urban environments that can be used by grid operators to support grid resilience during extreme heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗