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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation on laser absorption and x-ray radiation in microstructured titanium targets heated by short-pulse relativistic laser pulses

The enhancement effect of a microstructured surface on laser absorption and characteristic K α emission has been investigated by measuring K-shell emission from titanium (Ti) targets irradiated with high-intensity ( ∼ 10 20 W cm − 2 ), subpicosecond (500 fs) laser pulses. The experimental results indicate a modest enhancement ( 1.6 × ) of K α emission from microstructured targets compared to flat foils, but with a similar intensity and profile of He α and Li-like satellites. Particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations are implemented to further understand the underlying physical processes in the laser interaction with both targets, interpreting the mechanisms responsible for the K α enhancement. The reasons for the lower-than-expected enhancement of K α emission are discussed. The rapid heating of the bulk plasma might result in the premature shutdown of K α emission before the thermalization of hot electrons or even the end of laser pulses, suggesting that the use of K α emission as a diagnostic of the hot-electron yield or relaxation could lead to a misinterpretation. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A novel method to measure ion density in ICF experiments using x-ray spectroscopy of cylindrical tracers

The indirect drive approach to inertial confinement fusion has undergone important advances in the past few years. Improvements in temperature and density diagnostic methods are leading to more accurate measurements of the plasma conditions inside the Hohlraum and therefore to more efficient experimental designs. The implementation of dot spectroscopy has proven to be a versatile approach to extracting space- and time-dependent electron temperatures. In this method, a microdot of a mid-Z material is placed inside the Hohlraum and its K-shell emission spectrum is used to determine the plasma temperature. However, radiation transport of optically thick lines acting within the cylindrical dot geometry influences the outgoing spectral distribution in a manner that depends on the viewing angle. This angular dependence has recently been studied in the high energy density regime at the OMEGA laser facility, which allowed us to design and benchmark appropriate radiative transfer models that can replicate these geometric effects. By combining these models with the measurements from the dot spectroscopy experiments at the National Ignition Facility, we demonstrate here a novel technique that exploits the transport effects to obtain time-resolved measurements of the ion density of the tracer dots, without the need for additional diagnostics. Furthermore, we find excellent agreement between experiment and simulation, opening the possibility of using these geometric effects as a density diagnostic in future experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiatively cooled magnetic reconnection experiments driven by pulsed power

We present evidence for strong radiative cooling in a pulsed-power-driven magnetic reconnection experiment. Two aluminum exploding wire arrays, driven by a 20 MA peak current, 300 ns rise time pulse from the Z machine (Sandia National Laboratories), generate strongly driven plasma flows (MA≈7) with anti-parallel magnetic fields, which form a reconnection layer (SL≈120) at the mid-plane. The net cooling rate far exceeds the Alfvénic transit rate (τcool−1/τA−1≫1), leading to strong cooling of the reconnection layer. We determine the advected magnetic field and flow velocity using inductive probes positioned in the inflow to the layer, and inflow ion density and temperature from analysis of visible emission spectroscopy. A sharp decrease in x-ray emission from the reconnection layer, measured using filtered diodes and time-gated x-ray imaging, provides evidence for strong cooling of the reconnection layer after its initial formation. X-ray images also show localized hotspots, regions of strong x-ray emission, with velocities comparable to the expected outflow velocity from the reconnection layer. These hotspots are consistent with plasmoids observed in 3D radiative resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the experiment. X-ray spectroscopy further indicates that the hotspots have a temperature (170 eV) much higher than the bulk layer (≤75 eV) and inflow temperatures (about 2 eV) and that these hotspots generate the majority of the high-energy (>1 keV) emission.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-Term Scenarios of Transportation Decarbonization

Achieving a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 requires aggressive curbing of transportation emissions, currently the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the fastest growing source of emissions in many countries. Transportation, a heterogeneous sector with many different passenger and freight travel modes and applications, will require a portfolio of solutions to decarbonize. To inform how to achieve significant emissions reductions in U.S. passenger and freight mobility, researchers used the Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) model to explore many transformation pathways under expert-informed bounding ranges of assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancements, and policies. Researchers performed more than 2,000 simulations to explore possible transformation pathways and found that a combination of technological, behavioral, and policy strategies enables a staggering 89% reduction in transportation GHG emissions by 2050. Key is the rapid adoption of zero-emission electric vehicles (EVs) for all on-road passenger and freight applications, alongside a simultaneous decarbonization of electricity (supported by managed charging and proper planning). Managing travel demand growth can ease the transition by reducing the requisite amount of clean electricity and sustainable fuels supply.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

GeoMelt{sup R} In-Container Vitrification (ICV){sup TM} for Fukushima Daiichi Water Treatment Secondary Wastes - 20212

The Japanese government is supporting development work implemented jointly by Veolia subsidiaries Kurion Japan, K.K., Veolia Nuclear Solutions (VNS), Inc., and Veolia Nuclear Solutions Federal Services, LLC for treating radioactive waste generated from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS) water treatment using the GeoMelt{sup TM} In-Container Vitrification (ICV){sup TM} technology. The initial work consisted of glass formulation and engineering-scale testing which was completed in 2018, in the frame of an IRID (International Research Institute for Nuclear Decommissioning) program as part of a project subsidized by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). The Fukushima Daiichi NPS Mid- and Long-Term Road-map requires investigation of methods to stabilize solid wastes (and to immobilize radioisotopes in the wastes) generated as a result of emergency response and decommissioning activities. Cooling water treatment has resulted in a significant amount of solid and slurry secondary wastes (mostly adsorbents and ion-exchange materials) which will require processing at some point. GeoMelt{sup R} ICV{sup TM} is a joule-heated melter technology which uses a refractory-lined single-use container combining the melter and disposal container. There is no pouring required nor concerns with refractory corrosion which allows the process to accommodate a wide range of waste chemistries and high waste loadings. The testing described here consisted of three engineering-scale melts, each processing between 212 kg and 240 kg of waste simulants, glass formers, and non-radioactive cesium (Cs) and strontium (Sr) tracers. Continuous isokinetic stack sampling of off-gas emissions was performed for each test in order to calculate Cs and Sr retention in the glass wasteform. Single-pass retention of Cs in the final glass wasteform ranged from 91.46 to 99.30%, and single-pass retention of Sr ranged from 99.76 to 100%. Planned particulate recycle will increase these retention levels. Melt 1 processed a mixture of KUR-EH (a zeolite-based ion-exchange material), simulated Advanced Liquid Processing System (ALPS) Carbonate and Iron Slurries, and glass additives. Melt 2 processed a mixture of KUR-EH, KUR-TSG (a titanate-based adsorbent), and glass additives. Melt 3 processed a mixture of KUR-EH, simulated barium sulfate/iron ferrocyanide sludge (AREVA sludge), and glass additives. Waste loadings for these melts ranged from 70 weight percent (wt%) to 82 wt%. Vitrification produces a waste form much denser than the stored water treatment secondary waste wastes, resulting in significant volume reduction. Volume reductions for the three tests ranged from 74 to 79 vol%. Vitrification produces a chemically durable wasteform. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) tested three glass samples from each engineering-scale melt) by the Materials Characterization Center 1 (MCC-1) test, an international standard leach test of the chemical durability of nuclear waste glasses. PNNL also obtained one U.S. reference glass (EA Glass) and two Japan reference glasses P0798) and tested these under the same MCC-1 conditions (90 deg. C, 10 m-1, DIW, and 7, 14, 28-day) as the GeoMelt{sup R} ICV{sup TM} glasses. The GeoMelt{sup R} ICV{sup TM} glasses exhibited lower total normalized releases and 14- to 28-day normalized release rates than the three reference glasses. These results suggest that the GeoMelt{sup R} ICV{sup TM} glasses have durabilities on par with high-level waste glasses under standard test conditions. Post-melt process sampling and analysis indicated no Cs migration into the melter refractory materials and very little deposition of Cs or Sr onto the melter hood or off-gas piping internals. The results of the testing indicated good Cs retention in the glass, high volume reduction and waste loadings, and excellent chemical durability. These factors are important to minimize treatment costs and to protect workers and the environment. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Predictive Capability in REHEDS Simulations with Fast, Accurate, and Consistent Non-Equilibrium Material Properties

Predictive design of REHEDS experiments with radiation-hydrodynamic simulations requires knowledge of material properties (e.g. equations of state (EOS), transport coefficients, and radiation physics). Interpreting experimental results requires accurate models of diagnostic observables (e.g. detailed emission, absorption, and scattering spectra). In conditions of Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE), these material properties and observables can be pre-computed with relatively high accuracy and subsequently tabulated on simple temperature-density grids for fast look-up by simulations. When radiation and electron temperatures fall out of equilibrium, however, non-LTE effects can profoundly change material properties and diagnostic signatures. Accurately and efficiently incorporating these non-LTE effects has been a longstanding challenge for simulations. At present, most simulations include non-LTE effects by invoking highly simplified inline models. These inline non-LTE models are both much slower than table look-up and significantly less accurate than the detailed models used to populate LTE tables and diagnose experimental data through post-processing or inversion. Because inline non-LTE models are slow, designers avoid them whenever possible, which leads to known inaccuracies from using tabular LTE. Because inline models are simple, they are inconsistent with tabular data from detailed models, leading to ill-known inaccuracies, and they cannot generate detailed synthetic diagnostics suitable for direct comparisons with experimental data. This project addresses the challenge of generating and utilizing efficient, accurate, and consistent non-equilibrium material data along three complementary but relatively independent research lines. First, we have developed a relatively fast and accurate non-LTE average-atom model based on density functional theory (DFT) that provides a complete set of EOS, transport, and radiative data, and have rigorously tested it against more sophisticated first-principles multi-atom DFT models, including time-dependent DFT. Next, we have developed a tabular scheme and interpolation methods that compactly capture non-LTE effects for use in simulations and have implemented these tables in the GORGON magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) code. Finally, we have developed post-processing tools that use detailed tabulated non-LTE data to directly predict experimental observables from simulation output.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model Inputs, Outputs, and Scripts associated with: “Spatial microbial respiration variations in the hyporheic zones within the Columbia River Basin”

This data package is associated with the publication “Spatial microbial respiration variations in the hyporheic zones within the Columbia River Basin” published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences (Son et al. 2022) available at doi: 10.1029/2021JG006654. This data package includes the key model inputs/outputs of the river corridor model for the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and the model source codes, which were used in the manuscript. The model is a carbon-nitrogen-coupled river corridor model (RCM), and the model is used to quantify hyporheic zone (HZ) aerobic and anaerobic respiration at the NHDPLUS stream reach scales. The RCM used in this study combines empirical substrate models derived from observations and three microbially driven reactions to compute respiration of the HZ for each National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) reach within the CRB. The reactions in HZs of each NHD reach include anaerobic respiration and two-step anaerobic respiration via denitrification. Our HZ respiration estimates are limited to the lotic (or flowing) stream/river systems, and do not account for the respiration process in water column. Note that the RCM only simulates the HZ’s contribution to the dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the streams, and the CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are not modelled. The model computes at hourly timesteps because of the fast reaction rates. The key input data of the model are exchange flux, residence time, and stream solute (dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved oxygen (DO), and nitrate concentrations). These inputs are constant over time and represent long-term averaged values.This modeling framework successfully quantified HZ respiration components over multiple scales. It revealed key mechanisms driving the spatial variation of HZ aerobic and anaerobic respiration in reaches with varying hydrologic and substrate conditions. Thus, this modeling study offers a testing hypothesis in different river system (e.g., climate and biomes) for the HZ respiration processes, and can be used as a sampling design tool for large-scale HZ experimental studies.This dataset contains five folders: (1) model_inputs, (2) model_outputs, (3) Rscripts, (4) figures, and (5) model_codes. It also contains a readme, file level metadata (FLMD), and data dictionary (dd). Please see the FLMD for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The model_inputs folder contains the model inputs used to drive the model simulations. The model_outputs folder contains key model output files from the river corridor model. The Rscripts folder contains the Rscripts for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures folder contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. The model_codes folder includes key model source codes/input files. All files are .jpg, .jpeg, .out, .e, .od, .dat, .sub, .F90, .0, .R, .sbx, .cpg, .sbn, .shx, .shp, .dbf, .prj, .tfw, .tif, .xml, .pdf, or .csv.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on the Gamma-Ray Emission from Small Solar System Bodies with the Fermi Large Area Telescope Data

All known small solar system bodies have diameters between a few meters and a few thousands of kilometers. Based on the collisional evolution of solar system bodies, a larger number of asteroids with diameters down to ~2 m is thought to exist. As all solar system bodies, small bodies can be passive sources of high-energy gamma-rays, produced by the interaction of energetic cosmic rays impinging on their surfaces. Since the majority of known asteroids are in orbits between Mars and Jupiter (in a region known as the Main Belt), we expect them to produce a diffuse emission close to the ecliptic plane. In this work, we have studied the gamma-ray emission coming from the ecliptic using the data collected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT) onboard the Fermi satellite. We have fit the results with simulations of the gamma-ray intensity at the source level (calculated with the software FLUKA) to constrain the small solar system bodies population. Finally, we have proposed a model describing the distribution of asteroid sizes and we have used the LAT data to constrain the gamma-ray emission expected from this model and, in turn, on the model itself.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parametric studies of stream instability-induced higher harmonics in plasma ionization breakdown near an emissive dielectric surface

Here, in this work, we comprehensively investigate the generation of higher harmonic (HH) electric fields normal to the applied rf electric field in multipactor-coexisting plasma breakdown by fully kinetic particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations and a theoretical model. Firstly, a base case at driving frequency 1 GHz, transverse rf electric field amplitude 3 MV m –1 , and background gas pressure 0.2 Torr, is studied in detail. The enhanced harmonic frequency observed is around ten times the fundamental rf frequency, significantly lower than the Langmuir frequency. A theoretical model reveals that the fundamental mechanism of HHs generation is stream–plasma instability, which originates from stream-like secondary electron emission interacting with plasma. The resulting HH frequency and the growth rate of its oscillating amplitude from the theoretical model, agree well with the PIC simulations. With increasing pressure, the HH oscillations are found to be significantly reduced. This is because at higher pressure the gas ionization rate is higher, which causes a more rapidly increasing plasma density, leaving less time for the growth of instability. Furthermore, the parameter space in terms of background gas pressure and rf field amplitude within which the HHs appear is revealed. Finally, the effect of the driving rf frequency on HHs is also investigated, and it is found that the instability-induced oscillating HHs field remains when the driving frequency is increased to 2 GHz, however, it is highly reduced at higher driving frequency of 5 GHz, as oscillations at the fundamental frequency start playing a more important role.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Derived Dynamic Operating Reserve Requirements in High-Renewable Power Systems

Accurately forecasting wind and solar power output poses challenges for deeply decarbonized electricity systems. Grid operators must commit resources to provide reserves to ensure reliable operations in the face of forecast errors, a process which can increase fuel consumption and emissions. We apply neural network-based machine learning to expand the usefulness of median point forecast data by creating probabilistic distributions of short-term uncertainty in demand, wind, and solar forecasts that adapt to prevailing grid conditions. Machine learning derived estimates of forecast errors compare favorably to estimates based on incumbent methods. Reserves derived from machine learning are usually smaller than values derived using incumbent methods, which enables fuel savings during most hours. Machine learning reserves are generally larger than incumbent reserves during times of higher forecast error, potentially improving system reliability. Performance is tested using multi-stage production simulation modeling of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) system. Machine learning reserves provide production cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of approximately 0.3% relative to historical 2019 requirements. Savings in the 2030 timeframe are highly dependent on battery storage capacity. At lower levels of battery capacity, savings of 0.4% from machine learning reserves are shown. Significant quantities of battery storage are expected to be added to meet California's resource adequacy needs and GHG reduction targets. Addition of these batteries saturate reserve needs and results in minimal within-hour balancing costs in 2030.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

General relativistic hydrodynamic simulations of binary strange star mergers

We perform fully general-relativistic simulations of binary strange star mergers considering two different approaches for thermal effects. The first uses a cold equation of state (EOS) derived from a modified version of the MIT bag model which is then supplemented by a Γ-law correction. The second approach employs a microphysical description of the finite-temperature effects. We describe results obtained with the two treatments, highlighting the influence of thermal effects. We find that the postmerger dynamics differs significantly in the two cases, leading to quantitative differences in the postmerger gravitational-wave spectrum and ejecta mass. The peak frequency of the postmerger gravitational-wave emission is consistent with the established quasi-universal relations for binary neutron star mergers and as a result, our simulations cannot distinguish between mergers of neutron stars and those of strange stars. Our models with realistic treatment of finite-temperature effects produce a significant amount of ejecta ≳0.02 M ⊙ ​. Here, the resulting flux of strangelets near the Earth, computed assuming that all neutron star mergers are in fact strange-stars mergers and that the binary considered here is representative, is in tension with experimental upper limits. As such, our results tentatively disfavor a scenario in which strange-quark matter is the lowest energy state of matter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing outdoor air quality and public health impact attributable to residential black carbon emissions in rural China

Black carbon (BC) is a significant component of particulate matter (PM) that relates to air pollution, climate forcing, and further implications for public health. BC is predominantly released from the combustion of solid fuels. Combustion of low-quality fuels in rural China may induce severe respiratory and cardiopulmonary health outcomes for residents, which have however been inadequately assessed. One major reason for the limited understanding is the lack of a high-resolution inventory. An improved method of estimating the BC-associated public health burden is needed. This work quantified premature mortalities due to residential BC emissions in rural China. Domestic BC emissions at 1×1 km resolution were compiled based on previous field investigation, which were further configured for air quality simulation. A chemistry transport model, WRF–CMAQ v5.2, was employed for simulating BC concentrations. The consequent premature mortalities were quantified by a BC-specific concentration-response function (CRF) derived from an epidemiological study. Results show that residential combustion of solid fuel in rural China emitted 648.0 Gg (95%CI: 361.0–965.9) BC in 2014, after dispersion, accounting for 51.8% of annual mean ground-level BC concentration in China. Such impact was most severe in North and Northeast China, and the Sichuan Basin. The further investigation estimated 171,000 (95%CI: 69,000–387,000) premature mortalities that were attributable to exposure to rural residential BC. These findings reveal the major contribution of rural residential BC emissions to air pollution formation and public health impacts. Our findings are anticipated to provide useful information for enacting the next-stage environmental strategy for the residential sector in China.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enabling Numerical Modeling of Extreme-Intensity Laser Produced Dense Plasma

We have developed physics models of extreme intensity laser-matter interaction, x-ray and γ-ray emissions, and x-ray absorption (e.g. photoionization and Auger atomic processes). The atomic processes are solved self-consistently with radiation transport, which is coupled to our collisional particle-in-cell code, PICLS. Together with a significantly improved photoionization model our capability of simulation has been extended to account for detailed atomic and radiation physics during intense optical laser-matter interaction and also the XFEL-matter interaction.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microscopic evidence for scission neutrons

We discuss the neck rupture stage of fission and the emission of particles afterwards, two extremely rapid and highly non-equilibrium processes. Currently, the neck rupture cannot be directly probed by experiment, highlighting the importance of reliable theoretical predictions for this stage of fission. Time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) is used to simulate the spontaneous fission of 252 Cf. In conjunction with statistical models, inputs from microscopic calculations can be used to make predictions for prompt neutron and gamma emission spectra, quantities which can be experimentally measured. Here we characterize the scission mechanism within TDDFT and estimate the number of scission neutrons and their kinetic energies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microscopic Evidence for Scission Neutrons

We discuss the neck rupture stage of fission and the emission of particles afterwards, two extremely rapid and highly non-equilibrium processes. Currently, the neck rupture cannot be directly probed by experiment, highlighting the importance of reliable theoretical predictions for this stage of fission. Time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) is used to simulate the spontaneous fission of 252 Cf. In conjunction with statistical models, inputs from microscopic calculations can be used to make predictions for prompt neutron and gamma emission spectra, quantities which can be experimentally measured. Here we characterize the scission mechanism within TDDFT and estimate the number of scission neutrons and their kinetic energies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nucleosynthesis of an 11.8 M ⊙ Supernova with 3D Simulation of the Inner Ejecta: Overall Yields and Implications for Short-lived Radionuclides in the Early Solar System

Based on a 3D supernova simulation of an 11.8 M ⊙ progenitor model with an initial solar composition, we study the nucleosynthesis using tracers covering the innermost 0.1 M ⊙ of the ejecta. These ejecta are mostly proton-rich and contribute significant amounts of 45 Sc and 64 Zn. The production of heavier isotopes is sensitive to the electron fraction and hence the neutrino emission from the proto-neutron star. The yields of these isotopes are rather uncertain due to the approximate neutrino transport used in the simulation. In order to obtain the total yields for the whole supernova, we combine the results from the tracers with those for the outer layers from a suitable 1D model. Using the yields of short-lived radionuclides (SLRs), we explore the possibility that an 11.8 M ⊙ supernova might have triggered the formation of the solar system and provided some of the SLRs measured in meteorites. In particular, we discuss two new scenarios that can account for at least the data on 41 Ca, 53 Mn, and 60 Fe without exceeding those on the other SLRs.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electronic structure of Alq 3 and Liq using soft X-ray spectroscopy and density functional theory calculation

We show the electronic structure of aluminum tris-8-hydroxyquinoline (Alq 3 ) and 8-hydroquinolatolithium (Liq) was investigated using a combination of X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES), X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and spectral simulation with density functional theory. The chemical bonding states of Alq 3 and Liq were analyzed using XPS core-level spectra. The band gaps of Alq 3 and Liq were measured by combining the XAS and XES results. Additionally, resonant and non-resonant XES were used to measure the density of states for O sites in the molecules.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study uses a high-resolution, process-based modeling framework to assess the impacts of changing climate on water resources for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the southeastern United States. A 33-member ensemble of hydrologic projections was generated using 3 distributed hydrologic models (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, Variable Infiltration Capacity, and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) of different complexity. These hydrologic models were driven by dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected future climate simulations from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, with 40 years each in baseline (1966–2005) and future (2011–2050) periods. The hydroclimate response, in general, projects an increase in mean seasonal precipitation, runoff, and streamflow. The high and low flows are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, in general, suggesting increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The uncertainty associated with the ensemble hydroclimate response, analyzed through an analysis of variance technique, suggests that the choice of climate model is more critical than the choice of hydrologic model for the studied region. This study provides in-depth insights of hydroclimate response and associated uncertainties to support informed decisions by water resource managers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗