Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “robust estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Batteries Included: Top 10 Findings from Berkeley Lab Research on the Growth of Hybrid Power Plants in the United States

One of the most important electric power system trends of the 2010s was the rapid deployment of wind turbines and photovoltaic arrays, but a twist for the 2020s may be the rapid deployment of ‘hybrid’ generation resources. Hybrid power plants typically combine solar or wind (or other energy sources) with co-located storage. While hybridization helps to ease the challenge of balancing variable supply and demand, its relative novelty means that research is needed to facilitate integration and promote innovation. Combining the characteristics of multiple energy, storage, and conversion technologies poses complex questions for grid operations and economics. Project developers, system operators, planners, and regulators would benefit from better data, methods, and tools to estimate the costs, values, and system impacts of hybrid projects. This publication showcases some of Berkeley Lab’s robust research program intended to support private- and public-sector decision-making about hybrid plants in the United States. Our short briefing summarizes articles that we published between 2020 and 2022, links to the in-depth reports, and provides contact details for further engagement on the specific research topics: Growth: Developer interest in hybrid power plants is strong and growing Price vs. Value: PV+storage hybrids have low PPA prices and high value in some regions Market Drivers: Solar hybridization is driven by tax credits and other benefits Configuration Choices: Market prices have incentivized shorter duration batteries with PV Capacity Value: The capacity contribution of a hybrid is less than the sum of its parts Ancillary Services: AS markets are a valuable yet fleeting option for hybrids Market Participation: Hybrids can more flexibly engage with electricity markets Operations: The power system value of hybrids depends on how they are operated Distributed Hybrids: Growth of customer-sited PV+storage hybrids offers new opportunities Future Research: Where next? Priority areas for hybrid power research.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultracoherent SRF Cavity-Based Multi-Qudit Platform with Error-Resilient Control

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities offer a promising platform for quantum computing due to their long coherence times, yet integrating nonlinear elements like transmons for control often introduces additional loss. We report a multimode quantum system based on a 2-cell elliptical shaped SRF cavity, comprising two cavity modes weakly coupled to an ancillary transmon circuit, designed to preserve coherence while enabling efficient control of the cavity modes. We mitigate the detrimental effects of the transmon decoherence through careful design optimization that reduces transmon-cavity couplings and participation in the dielectric substrate and lossy interfaces, to achieve single-photon lifetimes of 20.6\,ms and 15.6\,ms for the two modes, and a pure dephasing time exceeding 40\,ms. This marks an order-of-magnitude improvement over prior 3D multimode memories. Leveraging sideband interactions and novel error-resilient protocols, including measurement-based correction and post-selection, we achieve high-fidelity control over quantum states. This enables the preparation of Fock states up to $N = 20$ with fidelities exceeding 95\%, the highest reported to date to the authors' knowledge, as well as two-mode entanglement with an estimated coherence-limited fidelities of 99.9\% after post-selection. These results establish our platform as a robust foundation for quantum information processing, allowing for future extensions to high-dimensional qudit encodings.

Kim, T. [Northwestern U.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ultracoherent superconducting cavity-based multiqudit platform with error-resilient control

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities offer a promising platform for quantum computing due to their long coherence times, yet integrating nonlinear elements like transmons for control often introduces additional loss. We report a multimode quantum system based on a 2-cell elliptical-shaped SRF cavity, comprising two cavity modes weakly coupled to an ancillary transmon circuit, designed to preserve coherence while enabling efficient control of the cavity modes. We mitigate the detrimental effects of the transmon decoherence through careful design optimization that reduces transmon-cavity couplings and participation in the dielectric substrate and lossy interfaces, to achieve single-photon lifetimes of 20.6 ms and 15.6 ms for the two modes, and a pure dephasing time exceeding 40 ms. This marks an order-of-magnitude improvement over prior 3D multimode memories. Leveraging sideband interactions and novel error-resilient protocols, including measurement-based correction and post-selection, we achieve high-fidelity control over quantum states. This enables the preparation of Fock states up to N = 20 with fidelities exceeding 95%, the highest reported to date to the authors' knowledge, as well as two-mode entanglement with an estimated coherence-limited fidelities of 99.9% after post-selection. These results establish our platform as a robust foundation for quantum information processing, allowing for future extensions to high-dimensional qudit encodings.

Lu, Yao [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000020413698X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ultracoherent superconducting cavity-based multiqudit platform with error-resilient control

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities offer a promising platform for quantum computing due to their long coherence times, yet integrating nonlinear elements like transmons for control often introduces additional loss. We report a multimode quantum system based on a 2-cell elliptical-shaped SRF cavity, comprising two cavity modes weakly coupled to an ancillary transmon circuit, designed to preserve coherence while enabling efficient control of the cavity modes. We mitigate the detrimental effects of the transmon decoherence through careful design optimization that reduces transmon-cavity couplings and participation in the dielectric substrate and lossy interfaces, to achieve single-photon lifetimes of 20.6 ms and 15.6 ms for the two modes, and a pure dephasing time exceeding 40 ms. This marks an order-of-magnitude improvement over prior 3D multimode memories. Leveraging sideband interactions and novel error-resilient protocols, including measurement-based correction and post-selection, we achieve high-fidelity control over quantum states. This enables the preparation of Fock states up to N = 20 with fidelities exceeding 95%, the highest reported to date to the authors' knowledge, as well as two-mode entanglement with an estimated coherence-limited fidelities of 99.9% after post-selection. These results establish our platform as a robust foundation for quantum information processing, allowing for future extensions to high-dimensional qudit encodings.

Lu, Yao [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000020413698X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultracoherent superconducting cavity-based multiqudit platform with error-resilient control

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities offer a promising platform for quantum computing due to their long coherence times, yet integrating nonlinear elements like transmons for control often introduces additional loss. We report a multimode quantum system based on a 2-cell elliptical shaped SRF cavity, comprising two cavity modes weakly coupled to an ancillary transmon circuit, designed to preserve coherence while enabling efficient control of the cavity modes. We mitigate the detrimental effects of the transmon decoherence through careful design optimization that reduces transmon-cavity couplings and participation in the dielectric substrate and lossy interfaces, to achieve single-photon lifetimes of 20.6 ms and 15.6 ms for the two modes, and a pure dephasing time exceeding 40 ms. This marks an order-of-magnitude improvement over prior 3D multimode memories. Leveraging sideband interactions and novel error-resilient protocols, including measurement-based correction and post-selection, we achieve high-fidelity control over quantum states. This enables the preparation of Fock states up to $N = 20$ with fidelities exceeding 95%, the highest reported to date to the authors' knowledge, as well as two-mode entanglement with an estimated coherence-limited fidelities of 99.9% after post-selection. These results establish our platform as a robust foundation for quantum information processing, allowing for future extensions to high-dimensional qudit encodings.

Kim, Taeyoon [Fermilab; Northwestern U.]↗
NASA NTRS1992

Enhanced orbital gyrocompassing by the optical flow sensed by an Earth-pointing camera

A new method for improving the orbital gyrocompassing process involving the attitude angle estimation of an earth-pointing satellite in low-Earth orbit uses an electro-optical sensor for direct measurement of the satellite azimuth angle. Simulations have shown that this additional measurement drastically reduces the estimator convergence time, especially when the sun sensor is rendered ineffective, e.g., by high solar elevations. The azimuth-sensing method is based on estimation of the image shift between successive picture frames of an on-board, Earth-pointing, charge-coupled device (CCD) full-matrix camera. The shift-estimation algorithm is based on minimizing a cost function which expresses mean-squared differences in brightness patterns of selected areas of the two frames. An extensive evaluation program with a computer-controlled 2-axis light table and actual satellite images has demonstrated high robustness for a wide range of variation of parameters including image texture content; camera focal length; sampling rate; and number of pixels processed. It was shown to be possible to estimate the azimuth angle within 0.1-0.2 degrees, for a suitably chosen parameter set.

Topaz, Leora↗
NASA NTRS1999

Satellite-Derived Water Vapor Winds for Regional Climate Studies

The retrieval of winds and humidity in the upper-troposphere has matured to the point where it may now be possible to better understand and diagnose regional climate variations from geostationary satellites than from conventional measurements or model analysis, especially in data sparse regions. In this poster paper, upper-tropospheric circulation features and moisture transport covering ENSO periods are presented and discussed. Precursor and other detectable interannual climate signals are analyzed and compared to model diagnosed features. Estimates of winds and humidity over data-rich regions (from conventional measurements) are used to show the robustness of the data and its value over regions which are currently poorly sampled.

Jedlovce, Gary J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Wavelet-Based Real-Time Diagnosis of Complex Systems

A new method of robust, autonomous real-time diagnosis of a time-varying complex system (e.g., a spacecraft, an advanced aircraft, or a process-control system) is presented here. It is based upon the characterization and comparison of (1) the execution of software, as reported by discrete data, and (2) data from sensors that monitor the physical state of the system, such as performance sensors or similar quantitative time-varying measurements. By taking account of the relationship between execution of, and the responses to, software commands, this method satisfies a key requirement for robust autonomous diagnosis, namely, ensuring that control is maintained and followed. Such monitoring of control software requires that estimates of the state of the system, as represented within the control software itself, are representative of the physical behavior of the system. In this method, data from sensors and discrete command data are analyzed simultaneously and compared to determine their correlation. If the sensed physical state of the system differs from the software estimate (see figure) or if the system fails to perform a transition as commanded by software, or such a transition occurs without the associated command, the system has experienced a control fault. This method provides a means of detecting such divergent behavior and automatically generating an appropriate warning.

Gulati, Sandeep↗
NASA NTRS2019

Radar Altimetry as a Proxy for Determining Terrestrial Water Storage Variability in Tropical Basins

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has provided us with unforeseen information on terrestrial water-storage (TWS) variability, contributing to our understanding of global hydrological processes, including hydrological extreme events and anthropogenic impacts on water storage. Attempts to decompose GRACE-based TWS signals into its different water storage layers, i.e., surface water storage (SWS), soil moisture, groundwater and snow, have shown that SWS is a principal component, particularly in the tropics, where major rivers flow over arid regions at high latitudes. Here, we demonstrate that water levels, measured with radar altimeters at a limited number of locations, can be used to reconstruct gridded GRACE-based TWS signals in the Amazon basin, at spatial resolutions ranging from 0.5 to 3°, with mean absolute errors (MAE) as low as 2.5 cm and correlations as high as 0.98. We show that, at 3° spatial resolution, spatially-distributed TWS time series can be precisely reconstructed with as few as 41 water-level time series located within the basin. The proposed approach is competitive when compared to existing TWS estimates derived from physically based and computationally expensive methods. Also, a validation experiment indicates that TWS estimates can be extrapolated to periods beyond that of the model regression with low errors. The approach is robust, based on regression models and interpolation techniques, and offers a new possibility to reproduce spatially and temporally distributed TWS that could be used to fill inter-mission gaps and to extend GRACE-based TWS time series beyond its timespan.

Terrestrial water storage↗
NASA NTRS2020

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Association between AOD and PM over the California Central Valley

Many air pollution health effects studies rely on exposure estimates of particulate matter (PM) concentrations derived from remote sensing observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD). Simple but robust calibration models between AOD and PM are therefore important for generating reliable PM exposures. We conduct an in-depth examination of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the AOD-PM2.5 relationship by leveraging data from the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON) field campaign where eight NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites were co-located with EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring sites in California’s Central Valley from November 2012 to April 2013. With this spatiotemporally rich data we found that linear calibration models (R(exp 2) = 0.35, RMSE = 10.38 µg/cu.m) were significantly improved when spatial (R(exp 2) = 0.45, RMSE = 9.54 µg/cu.m), temporal (R(exp 2) = 0.62, RMSE = 8.30 µg/cu.m), and spatiotemporal (R(exp 2) = 0.65, RMSE = 7.58 µg/cu.m) functions were included. As a use-case we applied the best spatiotemporal model to convert space-borne MultiAngle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) AOD observations to predict PM2.5 over the region (R(exp 2) = 0.60, RMSE = 8.42 µg/cu.m). Our results imply that simple AERONET AOD-PM2.5 calibrations are robust and can be reliably applied to space-borne AOD observations, resulting in PM2.5 prediction surfaces for use in downstream applications.

Meytar Sorek-Hamer↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Carbon Consumption Database for Wildland Fire

Fire plays a significant role on both national and global scales, profoundly impacting landscapes shaped by human activity as well as those left wild. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes. Fires can also serve to reduce fuels to mitigate wildfire risk and maintain healthy ecosystem functions. However, the smoke produced by fires, regardless of their size or purpose, can pose adverse effects on human health when inhaled downwind. Understanding the influence of smoke on air quality and human well-being necessitates the quantification of emissions that fires release into the atmosphere. In response to this need, we have established a comprehensive global consumption database directly linked to distinct fuels within various fire danger categories. This database, featuring a spatial resolution of approximately 300 meters, builds upon the foundations of the Pettinari, M. Lucrecia (2015) Global Fuelbed database, a global fuel map with standardized Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) biomass parameters. Consumption is broken down into five Fire Danger categories (Low, Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme), for both ‘new’ and ‘residual’ burning scenarios. We define ‘residual burned area’ as area burning in a region that has burned on a previous day for the same fire season, and ‘new burned area’ as area burning in a region that has not recently burned. This product serves as a valuable tool when used in conjunction with burned area data to rapidly estimate the carbon consumed and released into the atmosphere. Previously, we developed a similar emissions method utilizing satellite information, in conjunction with the FCCS 30-meter United States fuelbed dataset. We implemented this approach on fires, documented during the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign to estimate daily carbon emissions. Our emissions estimates were rigorously compared against in-situ measurements of CO2, CO, and black carbon aerosols, revealing a robust agreement between the two datasets.

Emily Gargulinski↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Reliability Analysis using Generalized Multifidelity Modeling and Explainable Active Learning

To assess the reliability of critical technologies like nuclear plants and infrastructure systems and improve the robustness of design, engineers have to quantify the uncertainties surrounding the system behavior accurately. However, the complexity of the problem can make standard reliability analysis algorithms prohibitively expensive, primarily due to the high computational cost of estimating the system response at each iteration. This cost can be greatly reduced by using multi-fidelity modeling and machine learning to build a surrogate model to replace the expensive response function. We propose a general and robust method for building surrogates from multiple Low Fidelity (LF) models coupled with machine learning to retain accuracy. Our framework first constructs “Corrected Low Fidelity models” (CLFs) by coupling a High Fidelity (HF) model inferred Gaussian Process correction term with each of the LF models. It then uses the correction terms to assign model probabilities to each of these CLFs in an explainable way before using them to assemble the final surrogate. No assumptions are made about the type of the LF models or their correlation with the HF model. The proposed surrogate modeling framework is used within the subset simulation algorithm (a variance-reduced MCMC-based reliability analysis algorithm) for enhanced efficiency. Additionally, an active learning step is added to the algorithm to adaptively decide when the surrogate is not sufficiently accurate, at which point the HF model is called and used to refine the surrogate. Through a frame buckling example, our method is shown to be highly efficient at reducing the expensive HF model calls while accurately estimating the failure probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantum microgrid state estimation

This paper investigates the feasibility and efficiency of quantum-circuit-based algorithms for microgrid state estimation. Here, our new contributions include: (1) a general quantum state estimation (GQSE) formulation is devised for swing-bus-contained microgrids through the quantized Gaussian–Newton iteration, (2) a preconditioned quantum linear solver (PQLS) is developed for tackling the ill-conditioned GQSE with limited quantum resources, and (3) an enhanced quantum state estimation (EQSE) algorithm is further established for hierarchical-control-based microgrids with exogenous disturbances. Extensive case studies demonstrate the correctness of GQSE, PQLS and EQSE in two typical microgrids. The robustness and convergence performance of EQSE are also verified.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2005

A model to assess the Mars Telecommunications Network relay robustness

The relatively long mission durations and compatible radio protocols of current and projected Mars orbiters have enabled the gradual development of a heterogeneous constellation providing proximity communication services for surface assets. The current and forecasted capability of this evolving network has reached the point that designers of future surface missions consider complete dependence on it. Such designers, along with those architecting network requirements, have a need to understand the robustness of projected communication service. A model has been created to identify the robustness of the Mars Network as a function of surface location and time. Due to the decade-plus time horizon considered, the network will evolve, with emerging productive nodes and nodes that cease or fail to contribute. The model is a flexible framework to holistically process node information into measures of capability robustness that can be visualized for maximum understanding. Outputs from JPL's Telecom Orbit Analysis Simulation Tool (TOAST) provide global telecom performance parameters for current and projected orbiters. Probabilistic estimates of orbiter fuel life are derived from orbit keeping burn rates, forecasted maneuver tasking, and anomaly resolution budgets. Orbiter reliability is estimated probabilistically. A flexible scheduling framework accommodates the projected mission queue as well as potential alterations.

Mars Telecommunications Orbiter (MTO)↗
NASA NTRS2002

Improved Estimates of Temporally Coherent Internal Tides and Energy Fluxes from Satellite Altimetry

Satellite altimetry has opened a surprising new avenue to observing internal tides in the open ocean. The tidal surface signatures are very small, a few cm at most, but in many areas they are robust, owing to averaging over many years. By employing a simplified two dimensional wave fitting to the surface elevations in combination with climatological hydrography to define the relation between the surface height and the current and pressure at depth, we may obtain rough estimates of internal tide energy fluxes. Initial results near Hawaii with Topex/Poseidon (T/P) data show good agreement with detailed 3D (three dimensional) numerical models, but the altimeter picture is somewhat blurred owing to the widely spaced T/P tracks. The resolution may be enhanced somewhat by using data from the ERS-1 (ESA (European Space Agency) Remote Sensing) and ERS-2 satellite altimeters. The ERS satellite tracks are much more closely spaced (0.72 deg longitude vs. 2.83 deg for T/P), but the tidal estimates are less accurate than those for T/P. All altimeter estimates are also severely affected by noise in regions of high mesoscale variability, and we have obtained some success in reducing this contamination by employing a prior correction for mesoscale variability based on ten day detailed sea surface height maps developed by Le Traon and colleagues. These improvements allow us to more clearly define the internal tide surface field and the corresponding energy fluxes. Results from throughout the global ocean will be presented.

Ray, Richard D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the convergence of statistics in simulations of stationary incompressible turbulent flows

When reporting statistics from simulations of statistically stationary chaotic phenomenon, it is important to verify that the simulations are time-converged. This condition is connected with the statistical error or number of digits with which statistics can be reliably reported. In this work we consider numerical experiments of low Reynolds number incompressible homogeneous and isotropic turbulence as a model problem to investigate statistical convergence over finite simulation times. Specifically, we investigate the time integration requirements that allow meaningful reporting of the statistical error associated with finiteness of the temporal domain. We address two key questions: (1) How long should a simulation be performed in terms of large eddy time, and (2) How should the simulation time be divided among temporal windows over which a quantity of interest is estimated so that its statistical error could be reliably reported? We find that reliable reporting of statistical errors requires simulations on the order of 10 4 large eddy times, which is orders of magnitude longer than typically performed. Additionally, data post-processing should employ windows of at least ten times the large eddy time scale, with the most robust computation of statistical error of the mean requiring window sizes of an additional factor of ten. For practical simulations, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the statistical error within a factor of two under a less stringent condition in which a minimum of four windows with size at least ten large eddy times are used. In conclusion, our observations for homogeneous isotropic turbulence are also shown to hold in turbulent channel flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Better practices for inferring ecosystem water use strategy from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are critical for inferring ecosystem water use strategies. Yet, such inferences are sensitive to a range of assumptions applied across studies, hindering our understanding of water use strategies within and across eddy covariance sites. A recent analysis across 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET datasets found that poor model performance was the key driver of non-robust inferences of ecosystem water use strategies. Here, we leverage this previous analysis to (i) identify the specific assumptions that improve inference model performance across most sites, (ii) explain the mechanisms behind the performance improvements, and (iii) check whether better performance improves water use inference. We find that the common practice of fitting a model to canopy conductance (G c ) derived from the evapotranspiration (ET) observations, rather than to observed ET itself, artificially amplifies data errors and degrades the model performance. Next, accounting for vegetation dynamics by applying a growing season filter or incorporating satellite LAI data improves performance, but the former practice may remove soil water stress periods. Lastly, using the leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit (VPD l ) derived from ET observations as a model input may artificially inflate performance. Based on these results, we recommend selecting observed ET (rather than derived G c ) as the response variable, carefully accounting for vegetation dynamics, and avoiding derived VPD l as a model input; these best practices improve model performance by c. 20% and robustness by c. 80% across all eddy covariance sites. Nevertheless, the performance improvements do not always correspond to more robust inference of water use strategies, as model parameter selection and surface energy budget closure corrections still strongly influence the ecosystem water use parameter estimation in a site-specific manner.

AmeriFlux↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust evaluation of ENSO in climate models: How many ensemble members are needed?

Large ensembles of model simulations require considerable resources, and thus defining an appropriate ensemble size for a particular application is an important experimental design criterion. We estimate the ensemble size (N) needed to assess a model's ability to capture observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior by utilizing the recently developed International CLIVAR ENSO Metrics Package (Planton et al., 2021). Using the larger ensembles available from CMIP6 and the US CLIVAR Large Ensemble Working Group, we find that larger ensembles are needed to robustly capture baseline ENSO characteristics (N > 50) and physical processes (N > 50) than the background climatology (N ≥ 12) and remote ENSO teleconnections (N ≥ 6). While these results vary somewhat across metrics and models, our study quantifies how larger ensembles are required to robustly evaluate simulated ENSO behavior, thereby providing some guidance for the design of model ensembles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗