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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Tea consumption and risk of bladder cancer in the Bladder Cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants (BLEND) Study: Pooled analysis of 12 international cohort studies

Tea has been shown to be associated with reduced risk of several diseases including cardiovascular diseases, stroke, metabolic syndrome, and obesity. However, the results on the relationship between tea consumption and bladder cancer are conflicting. This research aimed to assess the association between tea consumption and risk of bladder cancer using a pooled analysis of prospective cohort data. Individual data from 532,949 participants in 12 cohort studies, were pooled for analyses. Cox regression models stratified by study centre was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% CIs. Fractional polynomial regression models were used to examine the dose–response relationship. A higher level of tea consumption was associated with lower risk of bladder cancer incidence (compared with no tea consumption: HR = 0.87, 95% C.I. = 0.77–0.98 for low consumption; HR = 0.86, 95% C.I. = 0.77–0.96 for moderate consumption; HR = 0.84, 95% C.I. = 0.75–0.95 for high consumption). When stratified by sex and smoking status, this reduced risk was statistically significant among men and current and former smokers. In addition, dose–response analyses showed a lower bladder cancer risk with increment of 100 ml of tea consumption per day (HR-increment = 0.97; 95% CI = 0.96–0.98). A similar inverse association was found among males, current and former smokers while never smokers and females showed non-significant results, suggesting potential sex-dependent effect. Higher consumption of tea is associated with reduced risk of bladder cancer with potential interaction with sex and smoking status. Further studies are needed to clarify the mechanisms for a protective effect of tea (e.g. inhibition of the survival and proliferation of cancer cells and anti-inflammatory mechanisms) and its interaction with smoking and sex.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Unanticipated potential cancer risk near metal recycling facilities

Metal recycling is an important growing industry. Prior to this study, area sources consisting of metal recycling facilities fell in a category of limited regulatory scrutiny because of assumed low levels of annual emissions. Initiating with community complaints of nuisance from smoke, dust and odor, the Houston Department of Health and Human Services (HDHHS) began a monitoring program outside metal recycler facilities and found metal particulates in outdoor ambient air at levels which could pose a carcinogenic human health risk. In a study of five similar metal recycler facilities which used a torch cutting process, air downwind and outside the facility was sampled for eight hours between 6 and 10 times each over 18 months using a mobile laboratory. Ten background locations were also sampled. Iron, manganese, copper, chromium, nickel, lead, cobalt, cadmium and mercury were detected downwind of the metal recyclers at frequencies ranging from 100% of the time for iron to 2% of the time for mercury. Of these metals, chromium, nickel, lead, cobalt, cadmium and mercury were not detected in any sample in the background. Two pairs of samples were analyzed for total chromium and hexavalent chromium to establish a ratio of the fraction of hexavalent chromium in total chromium. This fraction was used to estimate hexavalent chromium at all locations. The carcinogenic risk posed to a residential receptor from metal particulate matter concentrations in the ambient air attributed to the metal recyclers was estimated from each of the five facilities in an effort to rank the importance of this source and inform the need for further investigation. The total risk from these area sources ranged from an increased cancer risk of 1 in 1,000,000 to 6 in 10,000 using the 95th upper confidence limit of the mean of the carcinogenic metal particulate matter concentration, assuming the point of the exposure is the sample location for a residential receptor after accounting for wind direction and the number of shifts that could operate a year. Further study is warranted to better understand the metal air pollution levels in the community and if necessary, to evaluate the feasibility of emission controls and identify operational improvements and best management practices for this industry. This research adds two new aspects to the literature: identification of types and magnitude of metal particulate matter air pollutants associated with a previously unrecognized area source, metal recyclers and their potential risk to health. -- Highlights: • Air monitoring study in response to community complaints found metal contamination. • Metal recyclers found to potentially pose cancer from metal particulates • Chromium, nickel, cobalt and cadmium samples were detected in five metal recyclers. • These metals were not detected in background air samples. • Estimated increased cancer risk ranges from 1 in 1,000,000 to 8 in 10,000.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Low serum zinc is associated with elevated risk of cadmium nephrotoxicity

Background: Despite animal evidence suggests that zinc modulates cadmium nephrotoxicity, limited human data are available. Objective: To test the hypothesis that low serum zinc concentrations may increase the risk of cadmium-mediated renal dysfunction in humans. Methods: Data from 1545 subjects aged 20 or older in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2011–2012 were analyzed. Renal function was defined as impaired when estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) fell below 60 ml/min/1.73 m{sup 2} and/or the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio surpassed 2.5 in men and 3.5 mg/mmol in women. Results: Within the study cohort, 117 subjects had reduced eGFR and 214 had elevated urinary albumin. After adjusting for potential confounders, subjects with elevated blood cadmium (>0.53 μg/L) were more likely to have a reduced eGFR (odds ratio [OR]=2.21, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09–4.50) and a higher urinary albumin (OR=2.04, 95% CI: 1.13–3.69) than their low cadmium (<0.18 μg/L) peers. In addition, for any given cadmium exposure, low serum zinc is associated with elevated risk of reduced eGFR (OR=3.38, 95% CI: 1.39–8.28). A similar increase in the odds ratio was observed between declining serum zinc and albuminuria but failed to reach statistical significance. Those with lower serum zinc/blood cadmium ratios were likewise at a greater risk of renal dysfunction (p<0.01). Conclusions: This study results suggest that low serum zinc concentrations are associated with an increased risk of cadmium nephrotoxicity. Elevated cadmium exposure is global public health issue and the assessment of zinc nutritional status may be an important covariate in determining its effective renal toxicity. - Highlights: • Blood cadmium was associated with increased risk of nephrotoxicity. • Low serum zinc may exacerbate risk of cadmium-mediated renal dysfunction. • Both zinc deficiency and elevated cadmium exposure are global public health issues. • Nutritional status is important in the assessment of cadmium nephrotoxicity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

An information diffusion technique to assess integrated hazard risks

An integrated risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident caused by multiple hazards. An integrated probability risk is the expected value of disaster. Due to the difficulty of assessing an integrated probability risk with a small sample, weighting methods and copulas are employed to avoid this obstacle. To resolve the problem, in this paper, we develop the information diffusion technique to construct a joint probability distribution and a vulnerability surface. Then, an integrated risk can be directly assessed by using a small sample. A case of an integrated risk caused by flood and earthquake is given to show how the suggested technique is used to assess the integrated risk of annual property loss.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Retrospective Evaluation Reveals That Long-term Androgen Deprivation Therapy Improves Cause-Specific and Overall Survival in the Setting of Dose-Escalated Radiation for High-Risk Prostate Cancer

Purpose: To evaluate the role of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and duration for high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with dose-escalated radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A retrospective analysis of high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with dose-escalated RT (minimum 75 Gy) with or without ADT was performed. The relationship between ADT use and duration with biochemical failure (BF), metastatic failure (MF), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), non-prostate cancer death (NPCD), and overall survival (OS) was assessed as a function of pretreatment characteristics, comorbid medical illness, and treatment using Fine and Gray's cumulative incidence methodology. Results: The median follow-up time was 64 months. In men with National Comprehensive Cancer Network defined high-risk prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated RT, on univariate analysis, both metastasis (P<.0001; hazard ratio 0.34; 95% confidence interval 0.18-0.67; cumulative incidence at 60 months 13% vs 35%) and PCSM (P=.015; hazard ratio 0.41; 95% confidence interval 0.2-1.0; cumulative incidence at 60 months 6% vs 11%) were improved with the use of ADT. On multivariate analysis for all high-risk patients, Gleason score was the strongest negative prognostic factor, and long-term ADT (LTAD) improved MF (P=.002), PCSM (P=.034), and OS (P=.001). In men with prostate cancer and Gleason scores 8 to 10, on multivariate analysis after adjustment for other risk features, there was a duration-dependent improvement in BF, metastasis, PCSM, and OS, all favoring LTAD in comparison with STAD or RT alone. Conclusion: For men with high-risk prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated EBRT, this retrospective study suggests that the combination of LTAD and RT provided a significant improvement in clinical outcome, which was especially true for those with Gleason scores of 8 to 10.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Classification System for Identifying Women at Risk for Altered Partial Breast Irradiation Recommendations After Breast Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Purpose: To study the utility of preoperative breast MRI for partial breast irradiation (PBI) patient selection, using multivariable analysis of significant risk factors to create a classification rule. Methods and Materials: Between 2002 and 2009, 712 women with newly diagnosed breast cancer underwent preoperative bilateral breast MRI at Mayo Clinic Florida. Of this cohort, 566 were retrospectively deemed eligible for PBI according to the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Protocol B-39 inclusion criteria using physical examination, mammogram, and/or ultrasound. Magnetic resonance images were then reviewed to determine their impact on patient eligibility. The patient and tumor characteristics were evaluated to determine risk factors for altered PBI eligibility after MRI and to create a classification rule. Results: Of the 566 patients initially eligible for PBI, 141 (25%) were found ineligible because of pathologically proven MRI findings. Magnetic resonance imaging detected additional ipsilateral breast cancer in 118 (21%). Of these, 62 (11%) had more extensive disease than originally noted before MRI, and 64 (11%) had multicentric disease. Contralateral breast cancer was detected in 28 (5%). Four characteristics were found to be significantly associated with PBI ineligibility after MRI on multivariable analysis: premenopausal status (P=.021), detection by palpation (P<.001), first-degree relative with a history of breast cancer (P=.033), and lobular histology (P=.002). Risk factors were assigned a score of 0-2. The risk of altered PBI eligibility from MRI based on number of risk factors was 0:18%; 1:22%; 2:42%; 3:65%. Conclusions: Preoperative bilateral breast MRI altered the PBI recommendations for 25% of women. Women who may undergo PBI should be considered for breast MRI, especially those with lobular histology or with 2 or more of the following risk factors: premenopausal, detection by palpation, and first-degree relative with a history of breast cancer.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Risk of Cerebrovascular Events in Elderly Patients After Radiation Therapy Versus Surgery for Early-Stage Glottic Cancer

Purpose: Comprehensive neck radiation therapy (RT) has been shown to increase cerebrovascular disease (CVD) risk in advanced-stage head-and-neck cancer. We assessed whether more limited neck RT used for early-stage (T1-T2 N0) glottic cancer is associated with increased CVD risk, using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database. Methods and Materials: We identified patients ≥66 years of age with early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer from SEER diagnosed from 1992 to 2007. Patients treated with combined surgery and RT were excluded. Medicare CPT codes for carotid interventions, Medicare ICD-9 codes for cerebrovascular events, and SEER data for stroke as the cause of death were collected. Similarly, Medicare CPT and ICD-9 codes for peripheral vascular disease (PVD) were assessed to serve as an internal control between treatment groups. Results: A total of 1413 assessable patients (RT, n=1055; surgery, n=358) were analyzed. The actuarial 10-year risk of CVD was 56.5% (95% confidence interval 51.5%-61.5%) for the RT cohort versus 48.7% (41.1%-56.3%) in the surgery cohort (P=.27). The actuarial 10-year risk of PVD did not differ between the RT (52.7% [48.1%-57.3%]) and surgery cohorts (52.6% [45.2%-60.0%]) (P=.89). Univariate analysis showed an increased association of CVD with more recent diagnosis (P=.001) and increasing age (P=.001). On multivariate Cox analysis, increasing age (P<.001) and recent diagnosis (P=.002) remained significantly associated with a higher CVD risk, whereas the association of RT and CVD remained not statistically significant (HR=1.11 [0.91-1.37,] P=.31). Conclusions: Elderly patients with early-stage laryngeal cancer have a high burden of cerebrovascular events after surgical management or RT. RT and surgery are associated with comparable risk for subsequent CVD development after treatment in elderly patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Risk of Leptomeningeal Disease in Patients Treated With Stereotactic Radiosurgery Targeting the Postoperative Resection Cavity for Brain Metastases

Purpose: We sought to determine the risk of leptomeningeal disease (LMD) in patients treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) targeting the postsurgical resection cavity of a brain metastasis, deferring whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) in all patients. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively reviewed 175 brain metastasis resection cavities in 165 patients treated from 1998 to 2011 with postoperative SRS. The cumulative incidence rates, with death as a competing risk, of LMD, local failure (LF), and distant brain parenchymal failure (DF) were estimated. Variables associated with LMD were evaluated, including LF, DF, posterior fossa location, resection type (en-bloc vs piecemeal or unknown), and histology (lung, colon, breast, melanoma, gynecologic, other). Results: With a median follow-up of 12 months (range, 1-157 months), median overall survival was 17 months. Twenty-one of 165 patients (13%) developed LMD at a median of 5 months (range, 2-33 months) following SRS. The 1-year cumulative incidence rates, with death as a competing risk, were 10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6%-15%) for developing LF, 54% (95% CI, 46%-61%) for DF, and 11% (95% CI, 7%-17%) for LMD. On univariate analysis, only breast cancer histology (hazard ratio, 2.96) was associated with an increased risk of LMD. The 1-year cumulative incidence of LMD was 24% (95% CI, 9%-41%) for breast cancer compared to 9% (95% CI, 5%-14%) for non-breast histology (P=.004). Conclusions: In patients treated with SRS targeting the postoperative cavity following resection, those with breast cancer histology were at higher risk of LMD. It is unknown whether the inclusion of whole-brain irradiation or novel strategies such as preresection SRS would improve this risk or if the rate of LMD is inherently higher with breast histology.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

The Impact of Radiation Therapy on the Risk of Lymphedema After Treatment for Breast Cancer: A Prospective Cohort Study

Purpose/Objective: Lymphedema after breast cancer treatment can be an irreversible condition with a negative impact on quality of life. The goal of this study was to identify radiation therapy-related risk factors for lymphedema. Methods and Materials: From 2005 to 2012, we prospectively performed arm volume measurements on 1476 breast cancer patients at our institution using a Perometer. Treating each breast individually, 1099 of 1501 patients (73%) received radiation therapy. Arm measurements were performed preoperatively and postoperatively. Lymphedema was defined as ≥10% arm volume increase occurring >3 months postoperatively. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate risk factors for lymphedema. Results: At a median follow-up time of 25.4 months (range, 3.4-82.6 months), the 2-year cumulative incidence of lymphedema was 6.8%. Cumulative incidence by radiation therapy type was as follows: 3.0% no radiation therapy, 3.1% breast or chest wall alone, 21.9% supraclavicular (SC), and 21.1% SC and posterior axillary boost (PAB). On multivariate analysis, the hazard ratio for regional lymph node radiation (RLNR) (SC ± PAB) was 1.7 (P=.025) compared with breast/chest wall radiation alone. There was no difference in lymphedema risk between SC and SC + PAB (P=.96). Other independent risk factors included early postoperative swelling (P<.0001), higher body mass index (P<.0001), greater number of lymph nodes dissected (P=.018), and axillary lymph node dissection (P=.0001). Conclusions: In a large cohort of breast cancer patients prospectively screened for lymphedema, RLNR significantly increased the risk of lymphedema compared with breast/chest wall radiation alone. When considering use of RLNR, clinicians should weigh the potential benefit of RLNR for control of disease against the increased risk of lymphedema.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Risk Factors for Brain Metastases in Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With Definitive Chest Radiation

Purpose: We intended to identify risk factors that affect brain metastases (BM) in patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) receiving definitive radiation therapy, which may guide the choice of selective prevention strategies. Methods and Materials: The characteristics of 346 patients with stage III NSCLC treated with thoracic radiation therapy from January 2008 to December 2010 in our institution were retrospectively reviewed. BM rates were analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to determine independent risk factors for BM. Results: The median follow-up time was 48.3 months in surviving patients. A total of 74 patients (21.4%) experienced BM at the time of analysis, and for 40 (11.7%) of them, the brain was the first site of failure. The 1-year and 3-year brain metastasis rates were 15% and 28.1%, respectively. In univariate analysis, female sex, age ≤60 years, non-squamous cell carcinoma, T3-4, N3, >3 areas of lymph node metastasis, high lactate dehydrogenase and serum levels of tumor markers (CEA, NSE, CA125) before treatment were significantly associated with BM (P<.05). In multivariate analysis, age ≤60 years (P=.004, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.491), non-squamous cell carcinoma (P=.000, HR=3.726), NSE >18 ng/mL (P=.008, HR=1.968) and CA125 ≥ 35 U/mL (P=.002, HR=2.129) were independent risk factors for BM. For patients with 0, 1, 2, and 3 to 4 risk factors, the 3-year BM rates were 7.3%, 18.9%, 35.8%, and 70.3%, respectively (P<.001). Conclusions: Age ≤60 years, non-squamous cell carcinoma, serum NSE >18 ng/mL, and CA125 ≥ 35 U/mL were independent risk factors for brain metastasis. The possibilities of selectively using prophylactic cranial irradiation in higher-risk patients with LA-NSCLC should be further explored in the future.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Exposure Risks Among Children Undergoing Radiation Therapy: Considerations in the Era of Image Guided Radiation Therapy

Recent improvements in toxicity profiles of pediatric oncology patients are attributable, in part, to advances in the field of radiation oncology such as intensity modulated radiation (IMRT) and proton therapy (IMPT). While IMRT and IMPT deliver highly conformal dose to targeted volumes, they commonly demand the addition of 2- or 3-dimensional imaging for precise positioning—a technique known as image guided radiation therapy (IGRT). In this manuscript we address strategies to further minimize exposure risk in children by reducing effective IGRT dose. Portal X rays and cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) are commonly used to verify patient position during IGRT and, because their relative radiation exposure is far less than the radiation absorbed from therapeutic treatment beams, their sometimes significant contribution to cumulative risk can be easily overlooked. Optimizing the conformality of IMRT/IMPT while simultaneously ignoring IGRT dose may result in organs at risk being exposed to a greater proportion of radiation from IGRT than from therapeutic beams. Over a treatment course, cumulative central-axis CBCT effective dose can approach or supersede the amount of radiation absorbed from a single treatment fraction, a theoretical increase of 3% to 5% in mutagenic risk. In select scenarios, this may result in the underprediction of acute and late toxicity risk (such as azoospermia, ovarian dysfunction, or increased lifetime mutagenic risk) in radiation-sensitive organs and patients. Although dependent on variables such as patient age, gender, weight, body habitus, anatomic location, and dose-toxicity thresholds, modifying IGRT use and acquisition parameters such as frequency, imaging modality, beam energy, current, voltage, rotational degree, collimation, field size, reconstruction algorithm, and documentation can reduce exposure, avoid unnecessary toxicity, and achieve doses as low as reasonably achievable, promoting a culture and practice of “gentle IGRT.”.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Time Course and Accumulated Risk of Severe Urinary Adverse Events After High- Versus Low-Dose-Rate Prostate Brachytherapy With or Without External Beam Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Severe urinary adverse events (UAEs) include surgical treatment of urethral stricture, urinary incontinence, and radiation cystitis. We compared the incidence of grade 3 UAEs, according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, after low-dose-rate (LDR) and high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy, as well as after LDR plus external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and HDR plus EBRT. Methods and Materials: Men aged >65 years with nonmetastatic prostate cancer were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results–Medicare database who were treated with LDR (n=12,801), HDR (n=685), LDR plus EBRT (n=8518), or HDR plus EBRT (n=2392). The populations were balanced by propensity weighting, and the Kaplan-Meier incidence of severe UAEs was compared. Propensity-weighted Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the adjusted hazard of UAEs. These UAEs were compared with those in a cohort of men not treated for prostate cancer. Results: Median follow-up was 4.3 years. At 8 years, the propensity-weighted cumulative UAE incidence was highest after HDR plus EBRT (26.6% [95% confidence interval, 23.8%-29.7%]) and lowest after LDR (15.7% [95% confidence interval, 14.8%-16.6%]). The absolute excess risk over nontreated controls at 8 years was 1.9%, 3.8%, 8.4%, and 12.9% for LDR, HDR, LDR plus EBRT, and HDR plus EBRT, respectively. These represent numbers needed to harm of 53, 26, 12, and 8 persons, respectively. The additional risk of development of a UAE related to treatment for LDR, LDR plus EBRT, and HDR plus EBRT was greatest within the 2 years after treatment and then continued to decline over time. Beyond 4 years, the risk of development of a new severe UAE matched the baseline risk of the control population for all treatments. Conclusions: Toxicity differences were observed between LDR and HDR, but the differences did not meet statistical significance. However, combination radiation therapy (either HDR plus EBRT or LDR plus EBRT) increases the risk of severe UAEs compared with HDR alone or LDR alone. The highest increased risk of urinary toxicity occurs within the 2 years after therapy and then declines to an approximately 1% increase in incidence per year.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy and Risk of Thromboembolic Events

Purpose: To investigate the risk of thromboembolic disease (TED) after radiation therapy (RT) with curative intent for prostate cancer (PCa). Patients and Methods: We identified all men who received RT as curative treatment (n=9410) and grouped according to external beam RT (EBRT) or brachytherapy (BT). By comparing with an age- and county-matched comparison cohort of PCa-free men (n=46,826), we investigated risk of TED after RT using Cox proportional hazard regression models. The model was adjusted for tumor characteristics, demographics, comorbidities, PCa treatments, and known risk factors of TED, such as recent surgery and disease progression. Results: Between 2006 and 2013, 6232 men with PCa received EBRT, and 3178 underwent BT. A statistically significant association was found between EBRT and BT and risk of pulmonary embolism in the crude analysis. However, upon adjusting for known TED risk factors these associations disappeared. No significant associations were found between BT or EBRT and deep venous thrombosis. Conclusion: Curative RT for prostate cancer using contemporary methodologies was not associated with an increased risk of TED.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network

Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Relationships among DNA hypomethylation, Cd, and Pb exposure and risk of cigarette smoking-related urothelial carcinoma

Cigarette smoking and environmental exposure to heavy metals are important global health issues, especially for urothelial carcinoma (UC). However, the effects of cadmium and lead exposure, as well as the levels of DNA hypomethylation, on UC risk are limited. We evaluated the possible exposure sources of Cd and Pb and the relationship among DNA hypomethylation, urinary Cd and Pb levels, and UC risk. We recruited 209 patients with UC and 417 control patients for a hospital-based case–control study between June 2011 and August 2014. We collected environmental exposure-related information with questionnaires. Blood and urine samples were analyzed to measure the Cd and Pb exposure and 5-methyl-2′-deoxycytidine levels as a proxy for DNA methylation. Multivariate logistic regression and 95% confidence intervals were applied to estimate the risk for UC. Study participants with high Cd and Pb exposure in blood or urine had significantly increased risk of UC, especially among the smokers. After adjusting for age and gender, the possible connections of individual cumulative cigarette smoking or herb medicine exposure with the increased levels of Cd and Pb were observed in the controls. Participants with 8.66%–12.39% of DNA hypomethylation had significantly increased risk of UC compared with those with ≥ 12.39% of DNA hypomethylation. Environmental factors including cigarette smoking and herb medicine may contribute to the internal dose of heavy metals levels. Repeat measurements of heavy metals with different study design, detailed dietary information, and types of herb medicine should be recommended for exploring UC carcinogenesis in future studies. - Highlights: • Smoking and herb medicine ingestion is associated with increased urinary Cd and Pb levels. • Urinary levels of Cd and Pb are associated with increased risk of UC. • UC carcinogenesis might have partially resulted from DNA hypomethylation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pathways towards managing cost and degradation risk of fast charging cells with electrical and thermal controls

The charging rate of Li-ion batteries is limited by the risks of lithium plating and thermal damage, both of which negatively affect lifetime of the batteries. This work analyzes how to minimize charge time and manage the risk of degradation using both electrical and thermal controls. To accomplish this, an electrochemical-thermal model is developed to introduce a constant-risk fast charging protocol which maximizes the charging current while maintaining the cell within pre-defined design limits selected to minimize the risk of degradation. Results indicate 80%-charging of a typical NMC/graphite cell can be achieved within 10 minutes with a cell cost under $100 kW –1 h –1 (corresponding to an 80 μm thick anode) when charged at moderate allowable risks of degradation. Here, we also demonstrate how stretching the allowable risk (i.e., higher temperatures, larger C-rates, and lower anode potential limits) allows affordable design of fast charging cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected increases in tropical cyclone-induced U.S. electric power outage risk

Abstract While power outages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) already pose a great threat to coastal communities, how—and why—these risks will change in a warming climate is poorly understood. To address this need, we develop a robust machine learning model to capture TC-induced power outage risk. When applied to 900 000 synthetic TCs downscaled from simulated historical and future climate conditions under a strong warming scenario, we find outage risk in the United States and Puerto Rico is expected to increase broadly by the end of the century, with some states seeing increases of 60% and higher. Further, we discover that rising rainfall rates will play an increasingly important role in TC-induced power outage risk as the climate changes, explaining more than 50% of the projected change in risk in some regions. These insights are important for guiding decision-makers in their future outage risk investment and mitigation plans.

Grid Resilience↗