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At least 811 records · Page 45

Observation and Modeling of the Solar Transition Region: Multi-Spectral Solar Telescope Array Observations - 1

We report on observations of the solar atmosphere in several extreme-ultraviolet and far-ultraviolet bandpasses obtained by the Multi-Spectral Solar Telescope Array, a rocket-borne spectroheliograph, on flights in 1987, 1991, and 1994, spanning the last solar maximum. Quiet-Sun emission observed in the 171-175 Angstrom bandpass, which includes lines of O v, O VI, Fe IX, and Fe X, has been analyzed to test models of the temperatures and geometries of the structures responsible for this emission. Analyses of intensity variations above the solar limb reveal scale heights consistent with a quiet-Sun plasma temperature of 500,000 less than or equal to T (sub e) less than or equal to 800,000 K. The structures responsible for the quiet-Sun EUV emission are modeled as small quasi-static loops. We submit our models to several tests. We compare the emission our models would produce in the bandpass of our telescope to the emission we have observed. We find that the emission predicted by loop models with maximum temperatures between 700,000 and 900,000 K are consistent with our observations. We also compare the absolute flux predicted by our models in a typical upper transition region line to the flux measured by previous observers. Finally, we present a preliminary comparison of the predictions of our models with diagnostic spectral line ratios from previous observers. Intensity modulations in the quiet Sun are observed to occur on a scale comparable to the supergranular scale. We discuss the implications that a distribution of loops of the type we model here would have for heating the local network at the loops' footpoints.

Oluseyi, Hakeem M.↗

Experimental and computational analysis of bending fatigue failure in chopped carbon fiber chip reinforced composites

With a better balance among good mechanical performance, high freedom of design, and low material and manufacturing cost, chopped carbon fiber chip reinforced sheet molding compound (SMC) composites show great potential in different engineering applications. Here in this paper, bending fatigue behaviors of SMC composites considering the heterogeneous fiber orientation distributions have been thoroughly investigated utilizing both experimental and computational methods. First, four-point bending fatigue tests are performed with designed SMC composites, and the local modulus is adopted as a metric to represent the local fiber orientation of two opposing sides. Interestingly, SMC composites with and without large discrepancy in local modulus of opposing sides show different fatigue behaviors. Interrupted tests are conducted to explore the bending fatigue failure mechanism, and the damage processes of valid specimens are also closely examined. We find that the fatigue failure of SMC composites under four-point bending is governed by crack propagation instead of crack initiation. Because of this, the heterogeneous local fiber orientations of both sides of the specimen influence fatigue life. The microstructure of the lower side shows a direct influence while that of the upper side also exhibiting influence which becomes more prominent for high cycle fatigue cases. Furthermore, a hybrid micro–macro computational model is proposed to efficiently study the cyclic bending behavior of SMC composites. The region of interest is reconstructed with a modified random sequential absorption algorithm to conserve all the microstructural details including the heterogeneous fiber orientation, while the rest of the regions are modeled as homogenized macro-scale continua. Combined with a framework to capture the progressive fatigue damage under cyclic bending, the bending fatigue behaviors of SMC composites are accurately captured by the hybrid computational model comparing with our experimental analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A solar-wind model including proton thermal anisotropy.

A model of the solar wind is presented which divides the interplanetary space into two regions. It assumes that the solar wind is one-fluid in an 'inner region' of radius less than 0.4 A, and two-fluid and collisionless in an 'outer region' of radius greater than 0.4 A. The second and third moment equations of the Vlasov equation together with conservation equations are used to govern the solar wind flow in the outer region. The model produces solutions for all macroscopic quantities as well as for the microscopic proton distribution function, both as functions of heliocentric distances up to 50 A. Calculated results at 1 A include the solar wind velocity, electron temperature, proton temperature, proton thermal anisotropy and magnetic field magnitude. They are in good agreement with observations.

Whang, Y. C.↗

Measurement and modeling of moist processes

The keynote talk summarized five years of work simulating observed mesoscale convective systems with the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) model. Excellent results are obtained when simulating squall line or other convective systems that are strongly forced by fronts or other lifting mechanisms. Less highly forced systems are difficult to model. The next topic in this colloquium was measurement of water vapor and other constituents of the hydrologic cycle. Impressive accuracy was shown measuring water vapor with both the airborne DIAL (Differential Absorption Lidar) system and the the ground-based Raman Lidar. NMC's plans for initializing land water hydrology in mesoscale models was presented before water vapor measurement concepts for GCIP were discussed. The subject of using satellite data to provide mesoscale moisture and wind analyses was next. Recent activities in modeling of moist processes in mesoscale systems was reported on. These modeling activities at the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) used a hydrostatic, variable-resolution grid model. Next the spatial resolution effects of moisture budgets was discussed; in particular, the effects of temporal resolution on heat and moisture budgets for cumulus parameterization. The conclusion of this colloquium was on modeling scale interaction processes.

Cotton, William↗

Toward a dynamic-thermodynamic assimilation of satellite surface temperature in numerical atmospheric models

An assimilation technique is described in which satellite-observed surface skin temperature tendencies are used in a model surface energy budget so that the predicted rate of temperature change in the model more closely agrees with the satellite observations. Both visible and infrared GOES satellite data are used in the assimilation. The technique is based on analytically recovering surface moisture from similarity expressions derived from an evapotranspiration residual obtained as a difference between the unadjusted model evapotranspiration and the satellite-inferred evapotranspiration. The technique has application in regional-scale models where surface parameters such as root zone moisture, soil moisture, etc., are unknown. It is assumed that the largest error in the surface energy budget is in the evapotranspiration term. Two tests are given for the technique, first, a one-dimensional test against FIFE data and, second, a three-dimensional test over Oklahoma. In these cases the technique appears to correctly adjust the model response to agree better with observations.

Mcnider, Richard T.↗

Meteorological Controls on Biomass Burning During Santa Ana Events in Southern California

Fires occurring during Santa Ana (SA) events in southern California are driven by extreme fire weather characterized by high temperatures, low humidities, and high wind speeds. We studied the controls on burned area and carbon emissions during two intensive SA burning periods in 2003 and 2007. We therefore used remote sensing data in parallel with fire weather simulations of the Weather and Regional Forecast model. Total carbon emissions were approximately 1800 gigagrams in 2003 and 900 gigagrams in 2007, based on a daily burned area and a fire emission model that accounted for spatial variability in fuel loads and combustion completeness. On a regional scale, relatively strong positive correlations were found between the daily Fosberg fire weather index and burned area/emissions (probability is less than 0.01). Our analysis provides a quantitative assessment of relationships between fire activity and weather during severe SA fires in southern California.

Santa Ana (SA)↗

Weakened Orographic Influence on Cool-Season Precipitation in Simulations of Future Warming Over the Western US

High-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations of global warming consistently predict larger percentage increases in precipitation in the lee of midlatitude mountain ranges than on their windward slopes, indicating a weakening of the orographic rain shadow. This redistribution of precipitation could have profound consequences for water resources and ecosystems, but its underlying mechanisms are unknown. Here we show that rain-shadow weakening is just one manifestation of a more general decrease in the influence of orography on precipitation under global warming. We introduce a simple model of precipitation change based on this principle, and find that it agrees well with an ensemble of high-resolution simulations performed over the western United States. We argue that diminished orographic influence can be explained by the unique vertical structure of orographically forced ascent, which tends to maximize in the lower atmosphere where condensation is thermodynamically less sensitive to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Narrow radio recombination lines from ionization fronts

Model weak D-type ionization fronts are used to show that narrow H I radio recombination lines, such as those observed in the directions of several galactic H II regions, may be formed in the outermost layers of an ionization front bounding an H II region. Four model ionization fronts are computed with different values of magnetic-field strength, ionizing photon energy, and initial conditions. The recombination line strengths given by the models are compared with observed line strengths for the H II region NGC 2024, and the observed line profiles are found to be about twice as broad as the model profiles. Some likely explanations for the discrepancy are considered, particularly a variation in front velocity over the observing beam width (Stark broadening is ruled out).

Hill, J. K.↗

Modeling Mesoscale Eddies in the North Atlantic Ocean

Ocean modeling plays an important role in understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting the future climate change. Modeling the ocean at eddy-permitting and/or eddy resolving resolutions (1/3 degree or higher) has a two-fold objective. One part is to represent the ocean as realistically as possible, because mesoscale eddies have an impact on the large-scale circulation. The second objective is to learn how to represent effects of mesoscale eddies without explicitly resolving them. This is particularly important for climate models which cannot be run at eddy-resolving resolutions because of the computational constraints. At JPL, a 1/6 degree latitude by 1/6 degree longitude with 37 vertical levels Atlantic Ocean model has been developed. The model is based on the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Using the 256-processor Cray T3D, we have conducted a 40-year integration of this Atlantic eddy-resolving ocean model. A regional analysis demonstrate that many observed features associated with the Caribbean Sea eddies can be realistically simulated by this model. Analysis of this Atlantic eddy-resolving ocean model further suggests that these Caribbean Sea eddies are connected with eddies formed outside the Caribbean Sea at the confluence of the North Brazil Current (NBC) and the North Equatorial Countercurrent. The diagram of the model simulated surface current shows that the Caribbean eddies ultimately originate in the NBC retroflection region, traveling more than a year from the North Brazil coast through the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean Sea and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico. Additional information is contained in the original.

Chao, Yi↗

Thorium concentrations in the lunar surface. II - Deconvolution modeling and its application to the regions of Aristarchus and Mare Smythii

The broad angular response which characterized the Apollo gamma ray spectrometer resulted in a loss of spatial resolution and some of the contrast in determining surface concentrations within lunar regions small compared to the field of view. A deconvolution technique has been developed which removes much of this instrumental effect, thereby improving both spatial resolution and accuracy at the cost of a loss in precision. Geometric models of regional thorium distribution are convoluted through the response function of the instrument to yield a predicted distribution which is compared with the observed data field for quality of fit. Application to areas which include Aristarchus and Mare Smythii confirm some geological relationships and fail to support others.

Haines, E. L.↗

SSP‐Based Land‐Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections

Abstract To better understand the role projected land‐use changes (LUCs) may play in future regional climate projections, we assess the combined effects of greenhouse‐gas (GHG)‐forced climate change and LUCs in regional climate model (RCM) simulations. To do so, we produced RCM simulations that are complementary to the North‐American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA‐CORDEX) simulations, but with future LUCs that are consistent with particular Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and related to a specific Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). We examine the state of the climate at the end of the 21st century with and without two urban and agricultural LUC scenarios that follow SSP3 and SSP5 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forced by one global climate model, the MPI‐ESM, under the RCP8.5 scenario. We find that LUCs following different societal trends under the SSPs can significantly affect climate projections in different ways. In regions of significant cropland expansion over previously forested area, projected annual mean temperature increases are diminished by around 0.5°C–1.0°C. Across all seasons, where urbanization is high, projected temperature increases are magnified. In particular, summer mean temperature projections are up to 4°C–5°C greater and minimum and maximum temperature projections are increased by 2.5°C–6°C, amounts that are on par with the warming due to GHG‐forced climate change. Warming is also enhanced in the urban surroundings. Future urbanization also has a large influence on precipitation projections during summer, increasing storm intensity, event length, and the overall amount over urbanized areas, and decreasing precipitation in surrounding areas.

Bukovsky, Melissa S.↗

Modeling the Effects of Global Change on Ecosystem Processes in a Tropical Rainforest

Ongoing land-use change and climate change in wet tropical forests can potentially drive shifts in tree species composition, representing a change in individual species within a functional group, tropical evergreen trees. The impacts on the global carbon cycle are potentially large, but unclear. We explored the differential effects of species within this functional group, in comparison with the effects of climate change, using the Century model as a research tool. Simulating effects of individual tree species on biome-level biogeochemical cycles constituted a novel application for Century. Background and Objectives: A unique, long-term, replicated field experiment containing five evergreen tree species in monodominant stands under similar environmental conditions in a Costa Rican wet forest provided data for model evaluation. Our objectives were to gain insights about this forest’s biogeochemical cycles and effects of tree species within this functional group, in comparison with climate change. Materials and Methods: We calibrated Century, using long-term meteorological, soil, and plant data from the field-based experiment. In modeling experiments, we evaluated effects on forest biogeochemistry of eight plant traits that were both observed and modeled. Climate-change simulation experiments represented two climate-change aspects observed in this region. Results: Model calibration revealed that unmodeled soil processes would be required to sustain observed P budgets. In species-traits experiments, three separate plant traits (leaf death rate, leaf C:N, and allocation to fine roots) resulted in modeled biomass C stock changes of >50%, compared with a maximum 21% change in the climate-change experiments. Conclusions: Modeled ecosystem properties and processes in Century were sensitive to changes in plant traits and nutrient limitations to productivity. Realistic model output was attainable for some species, but unusual plant traits thwarted predictions for one species. Including more plant traits and soil processes could increase realism, but less-complex models provide an accessible means for exploring plant-soil-atmosphere interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

North-Australian tropical seas circulation study

This investigation is intended to fully address the stated objective of the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1986). Hence, we intend to use TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry data to study the large-scale circulation of the Coral Sea Basin and the Arafura Sea and the mass exchange between these and adjoining basins. We will obtain data from two such cruises in 1993 and 1994 and combine them with TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimetry data to identify interannual and seasonal changes in: (1) the location of the major ocean currents and the South Equatorial Current bifurcation in the Coral Sea; (2) the source region of the South Tropical Counter Current (STCC); and (3) the water exchange between the Coral Sea and the adjoining seas. We will also estimate seasonal and interannual variations in the horizontal transport of mass and heat associated with near-surface geostrophic and wind-driven currents. In addition, the tidal components of the Coral Sea will be studied to provide a correction for altimetry subtidal sea level changes and to develop a regional numerical model for tidal forcing in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and Papua New Guinea Reef regions.

Burrage, Derek↗

A far-infrared spectral line survey of 23 infrared-bright Galaxy nuclei

We present results from a KAO survey of fine-structure lines observed in 23 infrared-luminous galaxies. One or more of the following lines was observed and/or detected in each galaxy: (S III) 19, 33 microns, (Ne V) 24 microns, (O IV) 26 microns, (Fe II) 26 microns, (Si II) 35 microns, (O III) 52, 88 microns, (0 I) 63, 146 microns, (N III) 57 micro ns, (N II) 122, 205 microns, (C II) 158 microns. The galaxies span a wide range of morphologies (irregular to grand design), have varying metallicities, and include mergers, AGN's, and starburst systems. The observations were made beginning in 1988 using the facility Cryogenic Grating Spectrometer onboard the KAO at a typical resolution of approximately 60-140 km/s and with a 30-44 deg beam. We interpret the (C II) and (O I) fluxes, along with previous measurements of the IR continuum fluxes, in the context of photo dissociation region (PDR) models (Tielens & Hollenbach 1985; Wolfire et al. 1990). With these models, we obtain estimates of the typical interstellar UV fields incident on the line emitting regions (102-104 times the local interstellar radiation field) and the total masses (10(exp 7)-10(exp 8) Solar Mass), densities (10(exp 3)-10(exp 4)/cu cm), and temperatures (100-250 K) of the warm atomic gas. The (O III) (52/88) and (S III) (33/19) line flux ratios constrain the range of electron densities and pressures found within the ionized regions. The (O III) and (S III) lines also provide estimates of the effective temperature of the ionizing stars and elemental abundances within the ionized regions of these galactic nuclei. Our measurements imply typical gas pressures of nT approximately 5 x 10(exp 6)/cu cm K and typical upper mass cutoffs of 25-35 Solar Mass. The low-metallicity systems show high (C II)/CO and (O I)/CO flux ratios, 3-5 times the Milky Way value, indicating that they contain a larger fraction of photodissociated gas relative to the molecular material.

Lord, Steven D.↗

Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective (e.g., statistical) verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, it is not usually sufficient for quantifying the value of the overall contribution of the model to the weather-forecasting process. This is especially true for mesoscale models with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution that may be capable of predicting meteorologically consistent, though not necessarily accurate, fine-scale weather phenomena. Therefore, subjective (phenomenological) evaluation, focusing on selected case studies and specific weather features, such as sea breezes and precipitation, has been performed to help quantify the added value that cannot be inferred solely from objective evaluation.

Manobianco, John T.↗

Subsurface Thermophysical Properties of Europa's Leading and Trailing Hemispheres as Revealed by ALMA

We present best-fit values of porosity—and the corresponding effective thermal inertiae—determined from three different depths in Europa's near-subsurface (∼1–20 cm). The porosity of the upper ∼20 cm of Europa's subsurface varies between 75% and 50% (Γeff ≈ 50–140 J m −2 K −1 s −1/2 ) on the leading hemisphere and 50%–40% (Γeff ≈ 140–180 J m −2 K −1 s −1/2 ) on the trailing hemisphere. Residual maps produced by comparison with these models reveal thermally anomalous features that cannot be reproduced by globally homogeneous porosity models. These regions are compared to Europa's surface terrain and known compositional variations. We find that some instances of warm thermal anomalies are co-located with known geographical or compositional features on both the leading and trailing hemisphere; cool temperature anomalies are well correlated with surfaces previously observed to contain pure, crystalline water ice and the expansive rays of Pwyll crater. Anomalous regions correspond to locations with subsurface properties different from those of our best-fit models, such as potentially elevated thermal inertia, decreased emissivity, or more porous regolith. We also find that ALMA observations at ∼3 mm sound below the thermal skin depth of Europa (∼10–15 cm) for a range of porosity values, and thus do not exhibit features indicative of diurnal variability or residuals similar to other frequency bands. Future observations of Europa at higher angular resolution may reveal additional locations of variable subsurface thermophysical properties, while those at other wavelengths will inform our understanding of the regolith compaction length and the effects of external processes on the shallow subsurface.

Alexander E Thelen↗

Physics and chemistry of sulfur lakes on Io

Based on data from Loki and other hot spot regions, a model for a convecting sulfur lake that is heated from below is constructed. Temperature profiles and fluxes in the silicate and sulfur regions are consistent with the observed Loki highest-temperature component and excess flux. Evaporatin of sulfur sets a strong upper limit on the lake surface temperature, and the intermediate temperature in the Loki region is identified with sulfur vapor condensing primarily along lake shores. Simple models of sulfur vapor transport can be used to match the Voyager IRIS data, assuming sulfur vapor condensed on the shore radiates like a blackbody. The 1 - 100 year lifetime of such a lake in steady state implies that long-term earth-based observations interpreted with this model could detect variations in the Loki thermal output. The sodium-sulfur phase diagram is also presented and used to show that evaporated lakes may leave behind sodium-rich residue which could supply the torus with sodium. Finally, uncertainties in the model are assessed, including the lack of sulfur emission features in the Loki spectrum.

Lunine, J. I.↗