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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Learning From User Behavior: A Survey-Assist Algorithm for Longitudinal Mobility Data Collection

GPS-based travel surveys are widely used in mobility studies to gather crucial qualitative data, like purpose, transportation mode and replaced mode. However, survey response still poses a burden to users, especially in long-term mobility studies, leading to response fatigue. We explore a survey-assist strategy to ease this burden by a novel, user-level modeling approach that leverages past responses from each user to predict responses for new trips, without relying on external data sources like GIS data. We investigate three main algorithms for predicting responses: (i) clustering trips and extrapolating responses for similar trips, (ii) using random forest classification, and (iii) clustering that uses a hybrid algorithm to determine spatial structure, which is then fed as input to a classic random forest classifier. The clustering approach can flexibly predict responses for even complex qualitative survey questions; it achieved F-scores of 65%. The random forest pipeline uses architecture that restricts it to predicting three predetermined survey questions: trip purpose, mode, and replaced mode. However, it achieved F-scores of 78%. While the survey-assist approach has been implemented by several proprietary systems, to our knowledge, this is the first exploration in the academic literature. It follows that this is also the first rigorous evaluation of multiple algorithms that can implement the approach. The evaluation uses a large scale, publicly available, longitudinal dataset consisting of ~ 92k trips from 235 users over a period of roughly one and a half years. With this approach, travel surveys can be pre-filled with the predicted responses for each trip, thus streamlining the survey process for users. Combined with an active learning system that requests user input on low-confidence predictions, models can be updated and improved over time to better support the long-term collection of longitudinal qualitative data.

clustering↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement accuracy and spatial resolution of a distributed temperature sensor based on a two-pulse differential coherent reflectometer

We present a model and numerical simulation of a distributed temperature sensor based on a two-pulse differential coherent optical time-domain reflectometer (COTDR). The differential phase measured using a phase-sensitive Rayleigh reflectometer is shown to have a regular component, which is a linear function of temperature, and a random component, which is related to a random distribution of scattering centres in the fibre and restricts the accuracy of measurements of variations in temperature. Measurement accuracy can be improved by reducing the relative contribution of the random component via a decrease in pulse duration and/or an increase in the time delay between pulses. The spatial resolution of a differential two-pulse phase-sensitive reflectometer is shown to be determined by the time delay between pulses and to vary little with pulse duration. At a typical pulse duration (200 ns) and delay time (300 ns), the accuracy in measurements of variations in temperature in the 0.1-K range is 2 % and the spatial resolution is about 30 m. (fibre-optic sensors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Classification Analysis of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes Prior to Landfall

This study evaluates the ability of a random forest classifier to identify tropical cyclone (TC) intensification or weakening prior to landfall over the western region of the Southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO) basin. For both Australia mainland and SWPO island cases, when a TC first crosses land after spending ≥24 h over the ocean, the closest hour prior to the intersection is considered as the landfall hour. If the maximum wind speed (V max ) at the landfall hour increased or remained the same from the 24-h mark prior to landfall, the TC is labeled as intensifying and if the V max at the landfall hour decreases, the TC is labeled as weakening. Geophysical and aerosol variables closest to the 24 h before landfall hour were collected for each sample. The random forest model with leave-one-out cross validation and the random oversampling example technique was identified as the best-performing classifier for both mainland and island cases. The model identified longitude, initial intensity, and sea skin temperature as the most important variables for the mainland and island landfall classification decisions. Incorrectly classified cases from the test data were analyzed by sorting the cases by their initial intensity hour, landfall hour, monthly distribution, and 24-h intensity changes. TC intensity changes near land strongly impact coastal preparations such as wind damage and flood damage mitigations; hence, this study will contribute to improve identifying and prioritizing prediction of important variables contributing to TC intensity change before landfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modulation and Modeling of Three-Dimensional Nanowire Assemblies Targeting Gas Sensors with High Response and Reliability

Despite improved sensitivity, simple downsizing of gas-sensing components to randomly arranged nanostructures often faces challenges associated with unpredictable electrical conduction pathways. In the present study, controlled fabrication of three-dimensional (3D) metal oxide nanowire networks is demonstrated that can greatly improve both signal stability and sensor response compared to random nanowire arrays. For example, the highest ever reported H 2 S gas response value, and a 5 times lower relative standard deviation of baseline resistance than that of random nanowires assemblies, are achieved with the ordered 3D nanowire network. Systematic engineering of 3D geometries and their modeling, utilizing equivalent circuit components, provide additional insights into the electrical conduction and gas-sensing response of 3D assemblies, revealing the critical importance of wire-to-wire junction points and their arrangement. Here these findings suggest new design rules for both enhanced performance and reliability of chemical sensors, which may also be extended to other devices based on nanoscale building blocks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tunable Stochasticity in an Artificial Spin Network

Metamaterials present the possibility of artificially generating advanced functionalities through engineering of their internal structure. Artificial spin networks, in which a large number of nanoscale magnetic elements are coupled together, are promising metamaterial candidates that enable the control of collective magnetic behavior through tuning of the local interaction between elements. In this work, the motion of magnetic domain-walls in an artificial spin network leads to a tunable stochastic response of the metamaterial, which can be tailored through an external magnetic field and local lattice modifications. This type of tunable stochastic network produces a controllable random response exploiting intrinsic stochasticity within magnetic domain-wall motion at the nanoscale. An iconic demonstration used to illustrate the control of randomness is the Galton board. In this system, multiple balls fall into an array of pegs to generate a bell-shaped curve that can be modified via the array spacing or the tilt of the board. A nanoscale recreation of this experiment using an artificial spin network is employed to demonstrate tunable stochasticity. Furthermore, this type of tunable stochastic network opens new paths toward post-Von Neumann computing architectures such as Bayesian sensing or random neural networks, in which stochasticity is harnessed to efficiently perform complex computational tasks.

Artificial spin network↗
DOE OSTI2025

Karhunen–Loève deep learning method for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation

We evaluate the performance of the Karhunen-Loève Deep Neural Network (KL-DNN) framework for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation models. In the surrogate model, the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions are used for the dimensionality reduction of the number of unknown parameters and variables, and a deep neural network is employed to relate the reduced space of parameters to that of the state variables. The KL-DNN surrogate model is used to formulate a maximum-a-posteriori-like least-squares problem, which is randomized to draw samples of the posterior distribution of the parameters. We test the proposed framework for a hypothetical unconfined aquifer via comparison with the forward MODFLOW and inverse PEST++ iterative ensemble smoother (IES) solutions as well as the state-of-the-art Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator networks (DeepONets) operator learning surrogate models. Our results show that the KL-DNN surrogate model outperforms FNO and DeepONet for forward predictions. For solving inverse problems, the randomized algorithm provides the same or more accurate Bayesian predictions of the parameters than IES as evidenced by the higher log-predictive probability of both the estimated parameter field and the forecast hydraulic head. The posterior mean obtained from the randomized algorithm is closer to the reference parameter field than that obtained with FNO as the maximum a posteriori estimate.

Approximate Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2021

An extended polynomial chaos expansion for PDF characterization and variation with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

This paper presents an extended polynomial chaos formalism for epistemic uncertainties and a new framework for evaluating sensitivities and variations of output probability density functions (PDF) to uncertainty in probabilistic models of input variables. An ”extended” polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) approach is developed that accounts for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, modeled as random variables, thus allowing a unified treatment of both types of uncertainty. We explore in particular epistemic uncertainty associated with the choice of prior probabilistic models for input parameters. A PCE-based Kernel Density (KDE) construction provides a composite map from the PCE coefficients and germ to the PDF of quantities of interest (QoI). Here, the sensitivities of these PDF with respect to the input parameters are then evaluated. Input parameters of the probabilistic models are considered. By sampling over the epistemic random variable, a family of PDFs is generated and the failure probability is itself estimated as a random variable with its own PCE. Integrating epistemic uncertainties within the PCE framework results in a computationally efficient paradigm for propagation and sensitivity evaluation. Two typical illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Aleatory uncertainty↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mushroom body input connections form independently of sensory activity in Drosophila melanogaster

Associative brain centers, such as the insect mushroom body, need to represent sensory information in an efficient manner. In Drosophila melanogaster, the Kenyon cells of the mushroom body integrate inputs from a random set of olfactory projection neurons, but some projection neurons—namely those activated by a few ethologically meaningful odors—connect to Kenyon cells more frequently than others. This biased and random connectivity pattern is conceivably advantageous, as it enables the mushroom body to represent a large number of odors as unique activity patterns while prioritizing the representation of a few specific odors. How this connectivity pattern is established remains largely unknown. Here, we test whether the mechanisms patterning the connections between Kenyon cells and projection neurons depend on sensory activity or whether they are hardwired. We mapped a large number of mushroom body input connections in partially anosmic flies—flies lacking the obligate odorant co-receptor Orco—and in wild-type flies. Statistical analyses of these datasets reveal that the random and biased connectivity pattern observed between Kenyon cells and projection neurons forms normally in the absence of most olfactory sensory activity. Finally, this finding supports the idea that even comparatively subtle, population-level patterns of neuronal connectivity can be encoded by fixed genetic programs and are likely to be the result of evolved prioritization of ecologically and ethologically salient stimuli.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Metal hydride composition-derived parameters as machine learning features for material design and H 2 storage

Though hydrogen is a promising energy carrier for a green future, many challenges persist. One is the difficulty in engineering storage solutions, with metal hydrides being a leading contender among solid-state strategies. To facilitate efficient searching of candidate materials, ridge regression, simple decision trees, random forest ensembles, and gradient boosting ensembles were employed to predict the energy of formation, with the random forest ensemble resulting in the lowest test set error. First, two public databases, Materials Project and HydPark, were searched for metal hydrides. Feature engineering was performed before the models were developed, resulting in electronegativity, density, atomic density, d-character, f-character, band gap, hydrogen weight fraction, magnetization, temperature, and pressure being retained. The models were then benchmarked by the lowest test error before a random forest ensemble was used to populate entries missing energy of formation. Furthermore, all were then scored by hydrogen storage capacity and energy of formation suitability. Readily available features including several derived from only the chemical formula which were found to be highly predictive. and so are promising for high-throughput screening of arbitrary novel hydride formulations and blends for thermodynamic feasibility.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The dynamics of suspensions of prolate spheroidal particles—Effects of volume fraction

Here, the effect of volume fraction on the dynamics of a gravity driven suspension of prolate spheroidal solid particles in a fully periodic domain is examined by fully resolved numerical simulations, for relatively modest Reynolds numbers (around 20, depending on the volume fraction). Three systems are examined, for volume fractions of 2.2% (20 particles), 5.5% (50 particles), and 9.9% (90 particles). The results show a transition from flow at low volume fractions dominated by the hydrodynamic interactions between the particles and the fluid, although modified by collisions, to flow dominated by collisions at higher volume fractions. The distribution of the particles with respect to each other, as measured by the probability distribution of nearest distances, is nearly random at low volume fractions but at high volume fractions, there is more clustering than for a random distribution. At lower volume fractions most of the particles fall broadside on whereas at the highest volume fraction, their orientation is essentially random.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-element flow-driven spectral chaos (ME-FSC) method for uncertainty quantification of dynamical systems

The flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) is a recently developed method for tracking and quantifying uncertainties in the long-time response of stochastic dynamical systems using the spectral approach. The method uses a novel concept called enriched stochastic flow maps as a means to construct an evolving finite-dimensional random function space that is both accurate and computationally efficient in time. In this paper, we present a multi-element version of the FSC method (the ME-FSC method for short) to tackle (mainly) those dynamical systems that are inherently discontinuous over the probability space. In ME-FSC, the random domain is partitioned into several elements, and then the problem is solved separately on each random element using the FSC method. Subsequently, results are aggregated to compute the probability moments of interest using the law of total probability. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the ME-FSC method in dealing with discontinuities and long-time integration of stochastic dynamical systems, four representative numerical examples are presented in this paper, including the Van-der-Pol oscillator problem and the Kraichnan-Orszag three-mode problem. Results show that the ME-FSC method is capable of solving problems that have strong nonlinear dependencies over the probability space, both reliably and at low computational cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

UQpy: A general purpose Python package and development environment for uncertainty quantification

In this paper, we present the UQpy software toolbox, an open-source Python package for general uncertainty quantification (UQ) in mathematical and physical systems. The software serves as both a user-ready toolbox that includes many of the latest methods for UQ in computational modeling and a convenient development environment for Python programmers advancing the field of UQ. The paper presents an introduction to the software's architecture and existing capabilities, divided in the code in a set of modules centered around different UQ tasks such as sampling methods, generation of random processes and random fields, probabilistic inverse modeling, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling, and active learning. The paper also highlights the importance of the RunModel module, which is used to drive simulations in the uncertainty analyses performed in UQpy. This module conveniently allows the user to define computational models directly in Python, or to run simulations from a third-party software in serial or in parallel. To illustrate the various capabilities, two examples are tracked throughout the paper and analyzed repeatedly for various UQ tasks. The first is a Python model solving a nonlinear structural dynamics problem, used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in sampling and forward propagation of high dimensional random vectors (stochastic processes), and probabilistic inference. The second model is a third-party Abaqus finite element model solving the thermomechanical response of a beam structure. This example is used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in variance reduction sampling techniques, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling and active learning techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chemical composition based machine learning model to predict defect formation in additive manufacturing

With a goal of exploiting additive manufacturing to improve the manufacturing of existing reactor materials, we developed a chemical composition-based machine learning model to predict the printability of any given alloy in laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) using experimental data from peer-reviewed literature. We defined printability as the ability to avoid defects like cracking, balling, porosity, and lack of fusion, that are caused by thermal stresses (during solidification or liquation), molten pool disintegration into disconnected small beads or lack of heat input respectively. Our models predict the tendency of balling defect formation and porosity percentage for a given composition, under a given set of processing conditions. To predict the likelihood of balling defect, three models: a random forest classifier, a gradient boost regressor and a neural network were trained on a dataset containing both traditional alloys and high entropy alloys. The neural network model showed the highest accuracy of 92.3 % in predicting the balling defect formation. A random forest regressor, gradient boost regressor and neural network were trained and tested on a dataset of various alloys to predict porosity. The random forest regressor showed the best predictions with an R 2 score of 0.97. The models also revealed the relative importance of the input descriptors on defect-formation tendency. Of particular significance was the identification of carbon as an important element in determining the occurrence of balling and percent porosity in alloys like steel, as well as being moderately important to the percentage porosity in other alloys as well as steel. Manganese was also identified as a key descriptor for the percentage of porosity in steel and other alloys. Manganese’s low thermal conductivity and consistent presence in the dataset is the likely cause for its contribution. Carbon’s role is attributable to its relatively high specific heat and high melting temperature. In conclusion, our model serves as a swift, chemistry-based tool to design experiments and find modified compositions better suited for additive manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating disease surveillance strategies for early outbreak detection in contact networks with varying community structure

Disease surveillance systems allow public health agencies to respond to emerging diseases before they become widespread. Developing such systems requires identifying optimal ways to monitor in the context of an epidemic outbreak; this problem is known as sensor selection. Contact networks represent the dynamics of interaction in a population and are used to model how a disease spreads in a population and to explore strategies of sensor selection. We evaluated five sensor selection strategies on their ability to provide an early warning of a COVID-like outbreak in synthetic contact networks encapsulated in four network scenarios. Three of these scenarios assessed different aspects of community structure. The fourth scenario employed a contact network representing the population and interactions of 6.8 million people in New York City, constructed from an agent-based simulation using census and transportation data. This scenario exemplifies how sensor selection strategies may perform in a real-world, urban context. Our findings suggest that the choice of the optimal strategy depends heavily on the community structure of the network. Strategies that select highly connected nodes or maximize network coverage are the optimal surveillance strategy for outbreak detection in many network community structures. However, a naive implementation of these strategies may fail to provide an early warning at all—including in the New York City scenario. Moreover, these methods are impractical for real-world use as they require knowledge of the underlying contact network. Instead, a selection strategy that starts with a set of random nodes and then performs a random walk through a chain of neighbors reliably provides early warnings without requiring prior knowledge of the network. We find this method, called “random chain”, to be the most pragmatic for implementation in a real-world disease surveillance context.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization problems governed by systems of PDEs with uncertainties

This paper reviews current theoretical and numerical approaches to optimization problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) that depend on random variables or random fields. Such problems arise in many engineering, science, economics and societal decision-making tasks. This paper focuses on problems in which the governing PDEs are parametrized by the random variables/fields, and the decisions are made at the beginning and are not revised once uncertainty is revealed. Examples of such problems are presented to motivate the topic of this paper, and to illustrate the impact of different ways to model uncertainty in the formulations of the optimization problem and their impact on the solution. A linear–quadratic elliptic optimal control problem is used to provide a detailed discussion of the set-up for the risk-neutral optimization problem formulation, study the existence and characterization of its solution, and survey numerical methods for computing it. Different ways to model uncertainty in the PDE-constrained optimization problem are surveyed in an abstract setting, including risk measures, distributionally robust optimization formulations, probabilistic functions and chance constraints, and stochastic orders. Furthermore, approximation-based optimization approaches and stochastic methods for the solution of the large-scale PDE-constrained optimization problems under uncertainty are described. Some possible future research directions are outlined.

Heinkenschloss, Matthias [Rice Univ., Houston, TX ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Formation of Vertically Oriented Channels during Calcination of Surfactant-Templated Titania-Doped Mesoporous Silica Thin Films

Here, the mesoporous structure development during calcination of titania-doped mesoporous silica thin films is characterized by in situ grazing-incidence small angle x-ray scattering (GISAXS). Varying amounts of titania (≤ 6 mol%) are incorporated in cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) templated film by two methods in this study: dispersion of titania in the silica matrix, and fixing titania at the pore surface by complexation of the titania precursor with a sugar-based co-surfactant, dodecyl maltoside (C 12 G 2 ). Before calcination, films templated with only CTAB display a mesoporous structure with a mixture of in-plane 2D hexagonal and randomly oriented porous structure, while C 12 G 2 -complexed film possessed randomly oriented mesostructure only. Both methods yield a final structure of hexagonal close-packed pores orthogonally oriented to the substrate after calcination at 500 °C. This is attributed to weak Si-O-Ti bonds which allow sintering to occur at 500 °C, combined with unidirectional thermal contraction of the film in the vertical direction. Anisotropic stress and annealing of the films allows the randomly oriented pores to merge vertically and form channels with pore diameter of 2.3 ± 0.3 nm. Titania doping greater than 1% is required for this transformation in films with no C 12 G 2 surfactant used while the transformation was observed for films with C 12 G 2 complexation even at low (0.005%) titania doping, perhaps accentuated by orientational disorder introduced by the sugar surfactant.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-Assembled Vesicles from Mixed Brush Nanoparticles in Solution

The self-assembly of binary polymer-grafted nanoparticles (NPs) in a selective solvent is investigated using coarse-grained simulations. Simulations are performed using theoretically informed Langevin dynamics (TILD), a particle-based method that employs a particle-to-mesh scheme to efficiently calculate the nonbonded interactions. Here, the particles are densely grafted with two immiscible polymers, A and B, that are permanently bound to the NP either at random grafting sites (random-grafted) or with all the A chains on one hemisphere of the NP and all the B chains on the other hemisphere (Janus-grafted). For NPs with random grafting, the polymers phase-separate on the surface of the NP to form Janus-type structures in dilute solution, even though some of the chains have to stretch around the particle to form the Janus structure. When the solvent quality is sufficiently poor for the solvophobic chains, the binary grafted NPs assemble into various structures, including double-walled vesicles. In particular, vesicles are formed when the solvophilic volume fraction is between 0.2 and 0.3, in a similar range to that required for vesicle formation in diblock copolymers in a selective solvent. For mixed-grafted NPs, there is considerable variation in the structure of each individual NP, but nevertheless, these NPs form ordered vesicles, similar to those formed by Janus-grafted NPs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mixed-Polarity Copolymers Based on Ethylene Oxide and Cyclic Carbonate: Insights into Li-Ion Solvation and Conductivity

Here, this study investigates the relationship between polarity and ionic conductivity in random and block copolymer electrolytes comprising highly flexible oligo(ethylene oxide) methyl ether methacrylate (OEM) and highly polar but glassy glycerol carbonate methacrylate (GCMA) monomers, blended with either lithium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide (LiTFSI) or lithium triflate. Interestingly, the high polarity of GCMA did not significantly enhance ionic dissociation, and the random copolymers (POEM-r-PGCMA) showed similar or lower ionic conductivities than the POEM homopolymer. Further analysis revealed that Li + only interacts with OEM and its counterion, not with GCMA. The less-intermixed and weakly phase-separated block copolymer (POEM-b-PGCMA) exhibited even lower conductivities than the random copolymer. Our results suggest that Li + solvation occurs only in the POEM-rich phase and that the larger PGCMA regions, depleted of Li + , disrupt long-range ion transport. These findings provide valuable insights into the design of polymer electrolytes and how segmental mobility and functional groups with contrasting polarities affect ion transport.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗