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DOE OSTI2020

DECOVALEX-2019 (Task D: INBEB Final Report)

The DECOVALEX Project is an on-going international research collaboration, established in 1992, to advance the understanding and modeling of coupled Thermal (T), Hydrological (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes in geological in geological systems. This document is the final report of Task D which was proposed by the DECOVALEX Project and coordinated by CIMNE_UPC, presenting the technical definitions of the problems studied, approaches applied, achievements made and outstanding issues for future research. Task D of the DECOVALEX 2019 project is devoted to the study of the hydro-mechanical (HM) and thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) Interactions in Bentonite Engineered Barriers (INBEB). Special attention is paid to the evolution of barrier heterogeneity under transient conditions. A proper understanding of the processes occurring during the transient period requires the appropriate simulation of the behavior of the engineered barrier by means of coupled numerical analyses. In this context, the main objective of the Task is to assess the capabilities of numerical formulations and codes to simulate and interpret the HM and THM behavior of the bentonite barrier, with a particular focus on the final state reached on saturation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Application and Certification of Comparative Vacuum Monitoring Sensors for Structural Health Monitoring of 737 Wing Box Fittings

Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today's extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring of aircraft structures are a viable option to overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. Prevention of unexpected flaw growth and structural failure can be improved if on-board health monitoring systems are used to continuously assess structural integrity. Such systems are able to detect incipient damage before catastrophic failures occurs. Condition-based maintenance practices could be substituted for the current time-based maintenance approach. Other advantages of on-board distributed sensor systems are that they can eliminate costly, and potentially damaging, disassembly, improve sensitivity by producing optimum placement of sensors and decrease maintenance costs by eliminating more time- consuming manual inspections. This report presents a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp. and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a certification program to formally introduce Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) as a structural health monitoring solution to a specific aircraft wing box application. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM into an airline maintenance program and the document revisions necessary to allow for routine use of CVM as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspects. To carry out the validation process, knowledge of aircraft maintenance practices was coupled with an unbiased, independent evaluation. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically-relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of the CVM system applied to the Boeing 737 Wing Box fitting application. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for CVM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and also is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. This report presents the use of several different statistical methods, some of them adapted from NDI performance assessments and some proposed to address the unique nature of damage detection via SHM systems, and discusses how they can converge to produce a confident quantification of SHM performance An important element in developing SHM validation processes is a clear understanding of the regulatory measures needed to adopt SHM solutions along with the knowledge of the structural and maintenance characteristics that may impact the operational performance of an SHM system. This report describes the major elements of an SHM validation approach and differentiates the SHM elements from those found in NDI validation. The activities conducted in this program demonstrated the feasibility of routine SHM usage in general and CVM in particular for the application selected. They also helped establish an optimum OEM-airline-regulator process and determined how to safely adopt SHM solutions. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM technology. It will also streamline the regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards machine-learning a fully-coupled constitutive model for thermal-hydraulic fracture in geothermal systems: phase I (Final Report)

This project, entitled “Towards machine-learning a fully-coupled constitutive model for thermal-hydraulic fracture in geothermal systems: phase I,” addresses challenges in understanding and controlling subsurface fracture networks, which are crucial for applications like deep geothermal heat mining and deep-crustal minerals/metals/hydrogen extraction. The research focuses on advancing the understanding of coupled thermal-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geologic materials, particularly under the high temperature and pressure conditions found in the deep crust. This seed grant focused specifically on thermal cracking and the development of new constitutive models. Significant progress was made in both experimental and theoretical domains. To study micro-scale fracture formation, the project demonstrated the ability to create thermal cracking under stress in granite samples using a Paterson Gas-medium Deformation Apparatus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Catalytic Upgrading of Ethanol to C8+ Distillate Range Ethers via Guerbet Coupling and Etherification

Guerbet coupling followed by etherification is a two step process for conversion of ethanol into distillate range molecules. This involves first alcohol oligomerization, followed by acid-catalyzed dehydration. As we will show in this presentation, ethanol can be converted to higher linear and α-branched alcohols by C-C coupling reactions (ethanol oligomerization) as well as to high molecular weight esters by C-O coupling reactions with Cu/MgxAlOy (CuHT) catalysts. Alcohols may be converted to ethers via bimolecular dehydration in a subsequent step. We have identified more than 160 number of species in the products including alcohols, esters, aldehydes, ketonces, and olefins. Alcohols range from C4 to C10. Both alcohols and esters follow a Schulz-Flory chain growth model. We show the relationship between the catalyst properties (BET surface area, acid and base site count and Cu loading and synthesis method) and the performance in the reactions. We also show that physical mixtures of CuHT and HT can have similar product selectivity of low loading CuHT catalysts. The selectivity towards diesel fuel precursor compounds (hereafter ‘DFPC’) increased with conversion until reaching a plateau at high ethanol conversion (~70%). Alcohol selectivity follows a Schultz-Flory distribution at all studied conversions, and that adsorbed ethanol-derived species may undergo surface oligomerization into 1-butanol and higher alcohols before desorbing in a chain-growth mechanism. Zeolite catalysts convert the C4+ alcohols into C8+ ethers in both batch and continuous flow reactors. Selectivities of up to 80% to C8+ ethers at around 70% conversion using a single pass continuous flow system are able to be achieved. The final product feedstocks obtained from etherification have been used in technoeconomic (TEA) and lifecycle analysis (LCA), which indicate a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 50% relative to conventional diesel. These final feedstocks are undergoing engine testing to elucidate the physiochemical properties and will be compared to diesel #2 ASTM standards as a reference and will serve as a basis to improve the final bio-diesel blendstocks from etherification.

Huber, George↗

DOE OSTI2021

OpenMC

OpenMC is an open source, community-developed framework for performing Monte Carlo particle transport calculations.It is capable of simulating neutron and photon transport below ~50 MeV and also includes a model for bremsstrahlung production of photons by electrons/positrons. Fixed source, k-eigenvalue, and subcritical multiplication problems can be solved. Problem geometries can be modeled either using constructive solid geometry or a CAD representation. A flexible and efficient tally system enables a wide variety of physical quantities to be tallied and analyzed. OpenMC can run in parallel using a hybrid MPI and OpenMP programming model and has been extensively tested on leadership class supercomputers. A built-in Bateman equation solver enables the modeling of material composition changes due to irradiation. One of the unique features of OpenMC is its rich, extensible Python and C/C++ programming interfaces that enable programming pre- and post-processing, multigroup cross section generation, workflow automation, multiphysics coupling, and the visualization of geometry and tally results. In addition to the core Monte Carlo transport solver and associated APIs, OpenMC includes a Python-based nuclear data interface that enables power users to inspect, modify,and perform various types of nuclear data processing on ENDF, ACE, and OpenMC¿s native HDF5 files

ROMANO, PaulK.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Particle-in-cell Monte Carlo-collision modeling of non-ideal effects in wave-heated dense microplasmas

A computational model for non-ideal plasma effects during the time evolution of a second-stage laser-heated discharge at high pressures is presented. The model extends a classical one-dimensional particle-in-cell Monte Carlo-collision (PIC-MCC) approach coupled with Maxwell's equations for the laser-heating process of a xenon plasma at 300 K temperature and 10–100 bar pressure. Plasma non-ideality resulting from Coulomb coupling at high plasma densities is manifested as a depression in the effective ionization potential of atoms and enhanced collision cross sections. These non-ideal effects are represented using the Ecker–Kröll model in the context of the PIC-MCC approach. We find that full ionization of the plasma is obtained on the picosecond timescale, starting from the skin layer and quickly expanding throughout the domain through an anomalous extension of the skin depth. More critically, we show that the inclusion of the non-ideal plasma effects results in more rapid ionization compared to an ideal plasma, especially at higher pressures. The ionization delay reduction is of the order of a fraction of a picosecond, corresponding to a 16% decrease at 100 bar. As the amplitude of the wave field is lowered, the ionization rate is lowered, making the plasma non-ideality effects more prominent.

Solmaz, Evrim (ORCID:0000000211830881)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model

Abstract A combination of accelerated population growth and severe droughts has created pressure on food security and driven the development of irrigation schemes across sub‐Saharan Africa. Irrigation has been associated with increased malaria risk, but risk prediction remains difficult due to the heterogeneity of irrigation and the environment. While investigating transmission dynamics is helpful, malaria models cannot be applied directly in irrigated regions as they typically rely only on rainfall as a source of water to quantify larval habitats. By coupling a hydrologic model with an agent‐based malaria model for a sugarcane plantation site in Arjo, Ethiopia, we demonstrated how incorporating hydrologic processes to estimate larval habitats can affect malaria transmission. Using the coupled model, we then examined the impact of an existing irrigation scheme on malaria transmission dynamics. The inclusion of hydrologic processes increased the variability of larval habitat area by around two‐fold and resulted in reduction in malaria transmission by 60%. In addition, irrigation increased all habitat types in the dry season by up to 7.4 times. It converted temporary and semi‐permanent habitats to permanent habitats during the rainy season, which grew by about 24%. Consequently, malaria transmission was sustained all‐year round and intensified during the main transmission season, with the peak shifted forward by around 1 month. Lastly, we evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of adult vectors under the effect of irrigation by resolving habitat heterogeneity. These findings could help larval source management by identifying transmission hotspots and prioritizing resources for malaria elimination planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Time-dependent THMC properties and microstructural evolution of damaged rocks in excavation damage zone

Modeling coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in host rocks near high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repositories at various time scales is an extremely challenging task. The current study integrates experimental, theoretical, and numerical methods in assessing the evolution of excavation damage zone (EDZ) over time and its implication on the long-term migration of hazardous species. Argillite and rock salt and are the focus of this study. The first part of the report presents a novel time-dependent directional microcrack damage theory for generic brittle rocks. It features detailed statistical description of the microcracks within a damaged solid, permitting a direct upscaling of microscale processes such as crack growth kinetics, crack closure/opening, sliding friction to explain the macroscopic creep, nonlinear elasticity, shear dilation, and loading-unloading hysteresis. This provides a basic platform for describing the anisotropic mechanical and transport properties of damaged rocks during excavation and subsequent THMC loadings. The model is validated and numerically implemented to Finite Element (FE) package ABAQUS through the user-defined material (UMAT) interface and have demonstrated great potential in resolving the time-dependent and anisotropic evolution of damage in the EDZ. The second part of the report presents a multi-scale experimental effort in characterizing the thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical properties of Mancos shale and Avery Island salt. For the Mancos shale, triaxial compression tests are performed at different confining pressures and temperatures to probe its thermomechanical properties relevant to HLW repositories. The obtained stress-strain data are interpreted using the proposed directional damage theory. Post-test specimens are subjected to gas permeability tests to reveal the correlation between permeability and the degree of microcracking. At microscale, temperature-controlled nanoindentation tests are performed and found a linear correlation between fracture toughness and elastic modulus from 25°C to 300°C. For Avery Island salt, we have designed and manufactured a novel relative-humidity controlled uniaxial creep device. Long-term creep tests at low stresses (< 5 MPa) are performed at different levels of relative humidity (RH). Besides confirming the much higher creep rates as one would expect through extrapolating the high-stress creep data, the results reveal that the steady-state creep rate of rock salt is strongly dependent on the ambient RH, an aspect that is often neglected in the literature. Both behaviors can be attributed to the pressure-solution creep mechanism which dominates at low stress and high RH levels. The third part of the report explores a set of numerical strategies in modeling the THMC behavior of porous geomaterials. A fully implicit, monolithic FE solution that can flexibly interface with different material models and coupling mechanisms for THMC problems is developed and verified through the ABAQUS user-defined element (UEL) interface. The scheme is used to study the THM response of a hypothetical HLW storage site with reference to an existing in-situ heater test. Strategies for integrating the UEL and the microcrack UMAT are suggested. Another numerical endeavor of this study is to implement a higher-order asymptotic homogenization method to account for the heterogeneous porous structures. The same method is then extended to perform microstructure-informed thermo-mechanical modeling of generalized continua. The above outcomes of this project provide a strong thrust towards enhancing the fundamental understanding and modeling capability of the long-term evolution of host rocks in EDZ, thus helping achieve the design goal of 1-million-year isolation of high-level nuclear wastes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probing Molecular Assembly of Small Organic Molecules during Meniscus-Guided Coating Using Experimental and Molecular Dynamics Approaches

Evaporation-based thin-film coating processes are ubiquitous in fields such as organic electronics, dye coatings, and the pharmaceutical industry. Based on experimental observations of enhanced thin-film alignment during meniscus-guided coating (MGC), a molecular dynamics simulation was developed to describe the thin-film formation that occurs due to the interplay between evaporation and fluid dynamics. The process of solvent evaporation from solution is first examined, which leads to the formation of a solid thin film after evaporation is complete. Next, an MGC process was simulated by introducing a flow profile coupled with the evaporative system. In this work, we gain insights into how molecules respond and reorient in the presence of a flow profile. These results indicate that both the evaporation and the flow profile have an impact on orienting small molecules in a thin film during the MCG process. Combining experimental techniques with simulations helps enhance the understanding of the forces that are significant in directing molecular aggregation during coating processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fiducial and differential cross-section measurements of electroweak $W\gamma jj$ production in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

The observation of the electroweak production of a W boson and a photon in association with two jets, using pp collision data at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre of mass energy of $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV, is reported. The data were recorded by the ATLAS experiment from 2015 to 2018 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb -1 . This process is sensitive to the quartic gauge boson couplings via the vector boson scattering mechanism and provides a stringent test of the electroweak sector of the Standard Model. Events are selected if they contain one electron or muon, missing transverse momentum, at least one photon, and two jets. Multivariate techniques are used to distinguish the electroweak $W\gamma jj$ process from irreducible background processes. The observed significance of the electroweak $W\gamma jj$ process is well above six standard deviations, compared to an expected significance of 6.3 standard deviations. Fiducial and differential cross sections are measured in a fiducial phase space close to the detector acceptance, which are in reasonable agreement with leading order Standard Model predictions from MADGRAPH5+PYTHIA8 and SHERPA. The results are used to constrain new physics effects in the context of an effective field theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics of Edge-Core Coupling by Inward Turbulence Propagation

The dynamics of edge-core coupling is critically important to the optimization of magnetically confined fusion plasmas. Since early proposals, there has been persistent speculation that inward propagation of turbulence from the boundary is a possible means to energize the edge-core coupling region. However, the detailed mechanism of this process has remained a mystery until recent experiments observed that regular, intense gradient relaxation events generated blob-void pairs very close to the last closed flux surface. Blobs ($\tilde{n}$ >0) propagate outward and detach from the bulk plasma, while voids ($\tilde{n}$ <0) propagate inward, and so stir the core plasma. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that this heretofore ignored process of void emission can drive a broad turbulent layer of width ∼100 𝜌 𝑠 , for typical parameters. The mechanism is the Cherenkov emission of drift waves from inward-propagating voids. The model shows promise to resolve several questions surrounding the shortfall problem and the strong turbulence in the edge-core coupling region.

drift waves↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Chemical Catalysis and Biological Conversion of Carbon Intermediates for Deriving Value-Added Products from Carbon Dioxide

Carbon dioxide valorization represents an appealing approach to reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. While electrocatalysis is an effective tool to reduce CO 2 into small carbon compounds, it becomes increasingly challenging to efficiently produce compounds with more carbon atoms. In contrast, while biological systems struggle to utilize CO 2 , they can readily upcycle other small carbon compounds. This project explores the use of a two-stage process that electrocatalytically converts CO 2 into methanol, formate, or acetate which is subsequently utilized by Methylotuvimicrobium alcaliphilum 20Z to produce medium chain length polyhydroxyalkanoate. A techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment evaluates the commercial viability of the process as well as its carbon emissions. We show here an enhanced CO 2 -to-methanol electroconversion step coupled with the use of a microbial culture adapted to the process conditions to be the optimal configuration for economic potential.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of accuracy and convergence of numerical coupling approaches for poroelasticity benchmark problems

Accurate modeling of subsurface flow and transport processes is vital as the prevalence of subsurface activities such as carbon sequestration, geothermal recovery, and nuclear waste disposal increases. Computational modeling of these problems leverages poroelasticity theory, which describes coupled fluid flow and mechanical deformation. Although fully coupled monolithic schemes are accurate for coupled problems, they can demand significant computational resources for large problems. In this work, a fixed stress scheme is implemented into the Sandia Sierra Multiphysics toolkit. Two implementation methods, along with the fully coupled method, are verified with one-dimensional (1D) Terzaghi, 2D Mandel, and 3D Cryer sphere benchmark problems. The impact of a range of material parameters and convergence tolerances on numerical accuracy and efficiency was evaluated. Overall the fixed stress schemes achieved acceptable numerical accuracy and efficiency compared to the fully coupled scheme. However, the accuracy of the fixed stress scheme tends to decrease with low permeable cases, requiring the finer tolerance to achieve a desired numerical accuracy. For the fully coupled scheme, high numerical accuracy was observed in most of cases except a low permeability case where an order of magnitude finer tolerance was required for accurate results. Finally, a two-layer Terzaghi problem and an injection–production well system were used to demonstrate the applicability of findings from the benchmark problems for more realistic conditions over a range of permeability. Simulation results suggest that the fixed stress scheme provides accurate solutions for all cases considered with the proper adjustment of the tolerance. Furthermore, this work clearly demonstrates the robustness of the fixed stress scheme for coupled poroelastic problems, while a cautious selection of numerical tolerance may be required under certain conditions with low permeable materials.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Factorization Machine‐Based Active Learning for Functional Materials Design with Optimal Initial Data

The optimization of functional materials is important to enhance their properties, but their complex geometries pose great challenges to optimization. Data-driven algorithms efficiently navigate such complex design spaces by learning relationships between material structures and performance metrics to discover high-performance functional materials. Surrogate-based active learning, continually improving its surrogate model by iteratively including high-quality data points, has emerged as a cost-effective data-driven approach. Furthermore, it can be coupled with quantum computing to enhance optimization processes, especially when paired with a special form of surrogate model (i.e., quadratic unconstrained binary optimization), formulated by factorization machine (FM). However, current practices often overlook the variability in design space sizes when determining the initial data size for optimization. In this work, we investigate the optimal initial data sizes required for efficient convergence across various design space sizes. By employing averaged piecewise linear regression, we identify initiation points where convergence begins, highlighting the crucial role of employing adequate initial data in achieving efficient optimization. These results contribute to the efficient optimization of functional materials by ensuring faster convergence and reducing computational costs in FM-based active learning.

active learning↗

DOE OSTI2021

Inclusive prompt photon-jet correlations as a probe of gluon saturation in electron-nucleus scattering at small x

We compute the differential cross-section for inclusive prompt photon+quark production in deeply inelastic scattering of electrons off nuclei at small x (e + A DIS) in the framework of the Color Glass Condensate effective field theory. The result is expressed as a convolution of the leading order (in the strong coupling α s ) impact factor for the process and universal dipole matrix elements, in the limit of hard photon transverse momentum relative to the nuclear saturation scale Q s,A (x). We perform a numerical study of this process for the kinematics of the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC), exploring in particular the azimuthal angle correlations between the final state photon and quark. We observe a systematic suppression and broadening pattern of the back-to-back peak in the relative azimuthal angle distribution, as the saturation scale is increased by replacing proton targets with gold nuclei. Our results suggest that photon+jet final states in inclusive e + A DIS at high energies are in general a promising channel for exploring gluon saturation that is complementary to inclusive and diffractive dijet production. They also provide a sensitive empirical test of the universality of dipole matrix elements when compared to identical measurements in proton-nucleus collisions. However because photon+jet correlations at small x in EIC kinematics require jet reconstruction at small k ⊥ , it will be important to study their feasibility relative to photon-hadron correlations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Topological freeze-out by semi-annihilation

We point out that a QCD-like dark sector can be coupled to the Standard Model by gauging the topological Skyrme current, which measures the dark baryon number in the infrared, to give a technically natural model for dark matter. This coupling allows for a semi-annihilation process χχ → χX μ , where X μ is the gauge boson mediator and χ a dark pion field, which plays the dominant role in setting the dark matter relic abundance. The topological interaction is purely p-wave and so free from indirect detection constraints. We show that the dark matter pion mass needs to be in the range 10 MeV ≲ m χ ≲ 1 TeV; towards the lighter end of this range, there can moreover be significant self-interactions. We discuss prospects for probing this scenario at collider experiments, ranging from the LHC to low-energy e + e − colliders, future Higgs factories, and beam-dump experiments.

Models for Dark Matter↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying microbial control of soil organic matter dynamics at macrosystem scales

Soil organic matter (SOM) stocks, decomposition and persistence are largely the product of controls that act locally. Yet the controls are shaped and interact at multiple spatiotemporal scales, from which macrosystem patterns in SOM emerge. Theory on SOM turnover recognizes the resulting spatial and temporal conditionality in the effect sizes of controls that play out across macrosystems, and couples them through evolutionary and community assembly processes. For example, climate history shapes plant functional traits, which in turn interact with contemporary climate to influence SOM dynamics. Selection and assembly also shape the functional traits of soil decomposer communities, but it is less clear how in turn these traits influence temporal macrosystem patterns in SOM turnover. Here, we review evidence that establishes the expectation that selection and assembly should generate decomposer communities across macrosystems that have distinct functional effects on SOM dynamics. Representation of this knowledge in soil biogeochemical models affects the magnitude and direction of projected SOM responses under global change. Yet there is high uncertainty and low confidence in these projections. To address these issues, we make the case that a coordinated set of empirical practices are required which necessitate (1) greater use of statistical approaches in biogeochemistry that are suited to causative inference; (2) long-term, macrosystem-scale, observational and experimental networks to reveal conditionality in effect sizes, and embedded correlation, in controls on SOM turnover; and (3) use of multiple measurement grains to capture local- and macroscale variation in controls and outcomes, to avoid obscuring causative understanding through data aggregation. Here, when employed together, along with process-based models to synthesize knowledge and guide further empirical work, we believe these practices will rapidly advance understanding of microbial controls on SOM and improve carbon cycle projections that guide policies on climate adaptation and mitigation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

42 ENGINEERING↗