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At least 811 records · Page 45

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DOE OSTI2021

Error-Level-Controlled Synthetic Forecasts for Renewable Generation

Renewable energy resources, including solar and wind energy, play a significant role in sustainable energy systems. However, the inherent uncertainty and intermittency of renewable generation pose challenges to the safe and efficient operation of power systems. Recognizing the importance of short-term (hours ahead) renewable generation forecasting in power systems operation, it becomes crucial to address the potential inaccuracies in these forecasts. To systematically evaluate the performance of controllers in the presence of imperfect forecasts, we generate synthetic forecasts using actual renewable generation profiles (one from solar and one from wind). These synthetic forecasts incorporate different levels of statistical error, allowing us to control and manipulate the accuracy of the predictions. The primary objective is to employ synthetic forecasts with controlled yet realistic error levels to systematically investigate how controllers adapt to variations in forecast accuracy, providing valuable insights into their robustness and effectiveness under real-world conditions.

Array↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence of triangularity on the plasma response to resonant magnetic perturbations

The effect of the axisymmetric plasma shape on the non-axisymmetric plasma response to resonant magnetic perturbations is investigated in experiment and modeling for the DIII-D, EAST and ASDEX Upgrade tokamaks. Systematically modeling the effect of the triangularity, whilst keeping other equilibrium quantities largely unchanged, reveals that the plasma response is strongly suppressed at high triangularity compared to that at low triangularity. This is validated through targeted comparison with experiments at DIII-D, EAST, and ASDEX Upgrade. DIII-D and EAST magnetic measurements are used to validate simulations, while at ASDEX Upgrade the plasma edge displacement is measured. Both experiments and modeling find a reduced magnetic plasma response on the high-field side at high triangularity across devices. Multi-modal analysis of the simulation results extracts the mode structure and applied spectrum dependence of each mode. The amplitude of the dominant mode reveals similar trends with the edge resonance and radial displacement near the X-point, which suggests that the multi-mode plasma response provides another way to understand the edge localized mode (ELM) control physics. The plasma response is strongly reduced at high triangularity compared to that at low triangularity, which implies different ELM control effects as shaping is varied. Furthermore, these findings indicate that the plasma shape should be taken into consideration when designing an RMP-ELM control strategy in experiment, and that predictive plasma response calculations can be used to maximize access to RMP-ELM control in future devices by maximizing the coupling between coils and the plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electrochemical corrosion under controlled redox conditions

A method for predicting corrosion rates of a material during service conditions is provided, the method having the steps of determining a first phase composition of the material; exposing the material to service conditions chemical environment; applying an electrical potential to the exposed material to represent the solution redox; identifying ranges of the applied potential that correspond to different corrosion behaviors of the material; quantifying current and surface electrical properties during corrosion; and determining a second phase composition of the material to identify corroded phases. Also provided is a method for determining radionuclide source terms, the method having the steps of supplying a multiphase metallic waste containing the radionuclides; immersing the waste in a solution representing repository chemistry conditions; and oxidizing the immersed waste for a period of time and at particular imposed voltages representing solution redox values to establish a steady current representing corrosion rate of the waste.

Gattu, Vineeth Kumar↗

DOE OSTI2026

Deposition Height Prediction in Directed Energy Deposition

Using 316L stainless steel as a model material, reduced-order models are developed to predict capture efficiency, deposition height, and site-specific hardness in directed energy deposition. Capture efficiency is predicted over a 15 to 55 pct range using a dimensionless number derived from processing conditions and thermophysical properties. Deposition height is predicted over a 0.3 to 1.3 mm range without in situ sensing or prior training data, using two models based on the same mass and energy-balance principles. Predictions are compared with machine learning approaches. A quantitative relationship links deposition height, primary dendrite arm spacing (PDAS), and hardness: heights of 0.3 to 1.1 mm correspond to PDAS values of 2.7 to 5.1 µm and Vickers hardness (HV) of 160 to 219. Thinner layers cool more rapidly, producing finer microstructures and higher hardness. Samples fabricated with in situ variations in deposition height exhibited up to 55 HV differences between thick and thin regions, demonstrating that local control of deposition height enables predictive, site-specific hardness within a single build. These results establish deposition height prediction as a pathway for a priori process design and property control in directed energy deposition for 316L stainless steel.

Kunkel, William [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (↗

DOE OSTI2021

Neutrino-assisted early dark energy: theory and cosmology

Abstract The tension between measurements of the Hubble constant obtained at different redshifts may provide a hint of new physics active in the relatively early universe, around the epoch of matter-radiation equality. A leading paradigm to resolve the tension is a period of early dark energy, in which a scalar field contributes a subdominant part of the energy budget of the universe at this time. This scenario faces significant fine-tuning problems which can be ameliorated by a non-trivial coupling of the scalar to the standard model neutrinos. These become non-relativistic close to the time of matter-radiation equality, resulting in an energy injection into the scalar that kick-starts the early dark energy phase, explaining its coincidence with this seemingly unrelated epoch. We present a minimal version of this neutrino-assisted early dark energy model, and perform a detailed analysis of its predictions and theoretical constraints. We consider both particle physics constraints — that the model constitute a well-behaved effective field theory for which the quantum corrections are under control, so that the relevant predictions are within its regime of validity — and the constraints provided by requiring a consistent cosmological evolution from early through to late times. Our work paves the way for testing this scenario using cosmological data sets.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Operation of helium sub-atmospheric multistage cryogenic centrifugal compressor trains: Part 1 – Steady state modeling and speed ratio selection

Helium cryogenic systems which can provide cooling below the normal boiling point of helium (approximately 4.2 K) are often required by superconducting radio-frequency niobium resonators utilized in modern high-energy particle accelerators. Achieving temperatures below 4.2 K generally involves operating a cryogenic vessel with liquid helium under sub-atmospheric conditions, thereby lowering the saturation pressure and corresponding saturation temperature. Over the last several decades, multi-stage cryogenic centrifugal compressor trains (CC’s) have been operated efficiently and reliably within large-scale cryogenic systems to continuously evacuate helium vapor generated by a device within the vessel, maintaining sub-atmospheric conditions in the vessel while pressurizing the return vapor to above atmospheric conditions. Traditionally, these CC systems have been operated using empirically derived control philosophies and insight gathered from previous operational experience. Recent efforts at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) have been aimed at the development of a theoretical basis to characterize the operation of multi-stage cryogenic centrifugal compressor train and utilizing predictive model results to generate control parameters. The objective of this research was identifying operational points which adequately balance cryogenic system efficiency, stability, and overall ease of operation. Furthermore, this manuscript provides an overview of the predictive model development, characterization of the FRIB cryogenic centrifugal compressors and implementation of the predicted performance results during steady-state system operation.

Compressor train control↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Distribution Network Voltage and Sensor Allocation

Increasing penetration of fast-varying energy resources may negatively affect power systems' operation. At the same time, sensor deployment throughout distribution networks improves system awareness and enables the development of new and advanced voltage control solutions. Such control techniques rely on accurate prediction in anticipation to voltage violation scenarios. This paper analyzes various approaches for voltage prediction in a distribution system; it is shown that combining multiple techniques into a single regressor improves its predictive power. Moreover, a two-step regressor is proposed, where initial predictions based on a global regressor are refined by local regressors; in this case, prediction errors decrease significantly. Additionally, a clustering approach is employed for performing sensor allocation, so that only the most influential buses are selected for monitoring without diminishing prediction accuracy.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the universality of five-point QCD scattering amplitudes at high energy

We investigate 2 → 3 QCD scattering amplitudes in multi-Regge kinematics, i.e. where the final partons are strongly ordered in rapidity. In this regime amplitudes exhibit intriguing factorisation properties which can be understood in terms of effective degrees of freedom called reggeons. Working within the Balitsky/JIMWLK framework, we predict these amplitudes for the first time to next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic order, and compare against the limit of QCD scattering amplitudes in full colour and kinematics. We find that the latter can be described in terms of universal objects, and that the apparent non-universality arising at NNLL comes from well-defined and under-control contributions that we can predict. Thanks to this observation, we extract for the first time the universal vertex that controls the emission of the central-rapidity gluon, both in QCD and $\mathcal{N}$ = 4 super Yang-Mills.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Distribution Network Voltage and Sensor Allocation

Increasing penetration levels of fast-varying energy resources might negatively affect power system operation. At the same time, sensor deployment throughout distribution networks improves system awareness and enables the development of new and advanced voltage control solutions. Such control techniques rely on accurate prediction in anticipation of voltage violation scenarios. This paper analyzes various approaches to voltage prediction in a distribution system, and it is shown that combining multiple techniques into a single regressor improves its predictive power. Moreover, a two-step regressor is proposed in which initial predictions based on a global regressor are refined by local regressors; in this case, prediction errors decrease significantly. Additionally, a clustering approach is employed to perform sensor allocation so that only the most influential buses are selected for monitoring without diminishing prediction accuracy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Distribution Network Voltage and Sensors Allocation: Preprint

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

A control oriented comprehensive degradation model for battery energy storage system life prediction

In order to ensure that stationary battery energy storage systems (BESSs) provide reliable energy buffering, both for power quality and economic purposes, the degradation must be considered. Cell degradation involves various side reactions and is highly dependent on its operating conditions. To accurately track cell degradation and predict its impact on battery behavior, a comprehensive physics-based degradation model based on an electrolyte phase-enhanced single particle (SP) model is developed. Key degradation physics, namely solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer formation and growth, Li plating on the graphite anode, and Mn dissolution on cathode of nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide (NMC622) are considered. The model is validated against experimental capacity data. The results reveal that the deposition rate of both SEI layer and Li metal increase as the charge voltage increases. At the cathode side, the solvent oxidation rate determines the Mn dissolution rate. As a result, the volume fraction of NMC622 in the cathode continually decreases at a gradually increasing rate.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

MHD, disruptions and control physics: Chapter 4 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

In this chapter, we review the progress in MHD stability, disruptions and control in magnetic fusion research that has occurred over the past (more than) one and a half decades since the publication by Hender et al in 2007 on the same topic as part of the update of ITER Physics Basis. During this period, remarkable progress has been achieved in the understanding of the basic physics and overall control of MHD instabilities through a wide spectrum of dedicated experiments, theory and modeling. The sawtooth activities are probably today one of the best understood of MHD events and very robust control schemes have been developed for reliable operation of tokamaks through core heating. Similarly, significant improvements have been achieved in understanding and control of neoclassical tearing modes, resistive wall modes or locked modes and their control through ECCD or error field control. The field of disruption prediction through application of artificial intelligence, machine learning or deep learning methods, which had already started at the time of the 2007 review, has progressed significantly due to general progress in these fields and application of newer, more sophisticated algorithms. However, although remarkable progress has been achieved in the field of Disruptions, their understanding, prediction, possible avoidance and mitigation still remain probably the most active fields of R&D globally in this field. This is especially because reactor grade machines like ITER and DEMO will be much less tolerant in respect of disruptions and runaway currents, and their occurrences must be either avoided altogether or minimized to an acceptable value without causing any significant hindrance to robust machine operations. This review is intended to present a broad spectrum of the R&D that has occurred in this field in support of ITER, which will also be of immense significance for all future machines, especially reactors like DEMO.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Electric Grid Operations

The future of the grid will be powered by AI—or undermined by it. Artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping grid operations, improving fault detection, forecasting accuracy, and real-time optimization. As AI systems move closer to operational decision loops, however, they introduce new consequence pathways: expanded attack surfaces, model integrity risks, regulatory exposure, and human-automation challenges. This talk presents a consequence-driven framework for deploying AI responsibly in the electric grid. Attendees will gain practical strategies to strengthen resilience, boost reliability, and deploy AI securely — ensuring the grid of the future is not only smarter but safer.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Early season prediction of within-field crop yield variability by assimilating CubeSat data into a crop model

Accurate early season predictions of crop yield at the within-field scale can be used to address a range of crop production, management, and precision agricultural challenges. While the remote sensing of within-field insights has been a research goal for many years, it is only recently that observations with the required spatio-temporal resolutions, together with efficient assimilation methods to integrate these into modeling frameworks, have become available to advance yield prediction efforts. Here we explore a yield prediction approach that combines daily high-resolution CubeSat imagery with the APSIM crop model. The approach employs APSIM to train a linear regression that relates simulated yield to simulated leaf area index (LAI). That relationship is then used to identify the optimal regression date at which the LAI provides the best prediction of yield: in this case, approximately 14 weeks prior to harvest. Instead of applying the regression on satellite imagery that is coincident, or closest to, the regression date, our method implements a particle filter that integrates CubeSat-based LAI into APSIM to provide end-of-season high-resolution (3 m) yield maps weeks before the optimal regression date. The approach is demonstrated on a rainfed maize field located in Nebraska, USA, where suitable collections of both imagery and in-situ data were available for assessment. The procedure does not require in-field data to calibrate the regression model, with results showing that even with a single assimilation step, it is possible to provide yield estimates with good accuracy up to 21 days before the optimal regression date. Yield spatial variability was reproduced reasonably well, with a strong correlation to independently collected measurements (R 2 = 0.73 and rRMSE = 12%). When the field averaged yield was compared, our approach reduced yield prediction error from 1 Mg/ha (control case based on a calibrated APSIM model), to 0.5 Mg/ha (using satellite imagery alone), and then to 0.2 Mg/ha (results with assimilation up to three weeks prior to the optimal regression date). Such a capacity to provide spatially explicit yield predictions early in the season has considerable potential to enhance digital agricultural goals and improve end-of-season yield predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A robust deep learning workflow to predict multiphase flow behavior during geological C O 2 sequestration injection and Post-Injection periods

Simulation of multiphase flow in porous media is essential to manage the geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS) process, and physics-based simulation approaches usually take prohibitively high computational cost due to the nonlinearity of the coupled physics. This paper contributes to the development and evaluation of a deep learning workflow that accurately and efficiently predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of pressure and CO 2 plumes during injection and post-injection periods of GCS operations. Based on a Fourier Neural Operator, the deep learning workflow takes input variables or features including rock properties, well operational controls and time steps, and predicts the state variables of pressure and CO 2 saturation. To further improve the predictive fidelity, separate deep learning models are trained for CO 2 injection and post-injection periods due to the difference in primary driving force of fluid flow and transport during these two phases. We also explore different combinations of features to predict the state variables. We use a realistic example of CO 2 injection and storage in a 3D heterogeneous saline aquifer, and apply the deep learning workflow that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulate the physics process. Through this numerical experiment, we demonstrate that using two separate deep learning models to distinguish post-injection from injection period generates the most accurate prediction of pressure, and a single deep learning model of the whole GCS process including the cumulative injection volume of CO 2 as a deep learning feature, leads to the most accurate prediction of CO 2 saturation. For the post-injection period, it is key to use cumulative CO 2 injection volume to inform the deep learning models about the total carbon storage when predicting either pressure or saturation. The deep learning workflow not only provides high predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, but also offers a speedup of 250 times compared to full physics reservoir simulation, and thus will be a significant predictive tool for engineers to manage the long-term process of GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Environmental controls on observed spatial variability of soil pore water geochemistry in small headwater catchments underlain with permafrost

Abstract. Soil pore water (SPW) chemistry can vary substantially across multiple scales in Arctic permafrost landscapes. The magnitude of these variations and their relationship to scale are critical considerations for understanding current controls on geochemical cycling and for predicting future changes. These aspects are especially important for Arctic change modeling where accurate representation of sub-grid variability may be necessary to predict watershed-scale behaviors. Our research goal is to characterize intra- and inter-watershed soil water geochemical variations at two contrasting locations in the Seward Peninsula of Alaska, USA. We then attempt to identify the key factors controlling concentrations of important pore water solutes in these systems. The SPW geochemistry of 18 locations spanning two small Arctic catchments was examined for spatial variability and its dominant environmental controls. The primary environmental controls considered were vegetation, soil moisture and/or redox condition, water–soil interactions and hydrologic transport, and mineral solubility. The sampling locations varied in terms of vegetation type and canopy height, presence or absence of near-surface permafrost, soil moisture, and hillslope position. Vegetation was found to have a significant impact on SPW NO3- concentrations, associated with the localized presence of nitrogen-fixing alders and mineralization and nitrification of leaf litter from tall willow shrubs. The elevated NO3- concentrations were, however, frequently equipoised by increased microbial denitrification in regions with sufficient moisture to support it. Vegetation also had an observable impact on soil-moisture-sensitive constituents, but the effect was less significant. The redox conditions in both catchments were generally limited by Fe reduction, seemingly well-buffered by a cache of amorphous Fe hydroxides, with the most reducing conditions found at sampling locations with the highest soil moisture content. Non-redox-sensitive cations were affected by a wide variety of water–soil interactions that affect mineral solubility and transport. Identification of the dominant controls on current SPW hydrogeochemistry allows for qualitative prediction of future geochemical trends in small Arctic catchments that are likely to experience warming and permafrost thaw. As source areas for geochemical fluxes to the broader Arctic hydrologic system, geochemical processes occurring in these environments are particularly important to understand and predict with regards to such environmental changes.

Conroy, Nathan Alec (ORCID:0000000305973373)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phosphoproteomics Modifications in Women with Rheumatoid Arthritis─Application of Web-Based Software to Enhance Data Visualization

Individuals with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are at increased risk of functional disability, cardiovascular disease, and obesity, all of which are influenced by dysregulated skeletal muscle. Here, this pilot study aims to identify phosphoproteomics changes in RA skeletal muscle and visualize modifications through development of a web-based app designed to promote user-friendly data interpretation and visualization. NanoLC–MS/MS analysis was performed on vastus lateralis biopsies from three women with RA and matched healthy controls. Differential analysis was performed using the Limma R package. Kinase substrate enrichment analysis (KSEA) predicted changes in kinase activity. RA muscle displayed 35 upregulated and 60 downregulated phosphosites, including the cytoskeletal proteins TTN (Ser33201, Ser33013, Ser20925), NEB (Ser2219, Thr254, Ser33013, Ser20925), FLNA (Ser1459), and LASP1 (Ser146). Compared to healthy controls, KSEA predicted decreased activity of several kinases in RA muscle, including PRKACA and CDKs. All such changes were visualized by use of our web-based app. Overall, phosphoproteome analysis reveals signaling alterations in RA skeletal muscle linked to cytoskeletal proteins, representing candidate disease biomarkers; these modifications can be explored through use of our web-based software.

phosphoproteomics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using iterative random forest to find geospatial environmental and Sociodemographic predictors of suicide attempts

Despite a recent global decrease in suicide rates, death by suicide has increased in the United States. It is therefore imperative to identify the risk factors associated with suicide attempts to combat this growing epidemic. In this study, we aim to identify potential risk factors of suicide attempt using geospatial features in an Artificial intelligence framework. We use iterative Random Forest, an explainable artificial intelligence method, to predict suicide attempts using data from the Million Veteran Program. This cohort incorporated 405,540 patients with 391,409 controls and 14,131 attempts. Our predictive model incorporates multiple climatic features at ZIP-code-level geospatial resolution. We additionally consider demographic features from the American Community Survey as well as the number of firearms and alcohol vendors per 10,000 people to assess the contributions of proximal environment, access to means, and restraint decrease to suicide attempts. In total 1,784 features were included in the predictive model. Our results show that geographic areas with higher concentrations of married males living with spouses are predictive of lower rates of suicide attempts, whereas geographic areas where males are more likely to live alone and to rent housing are predictive of higher rates of suicide attempts. We also identified climatic features that were associated with suicide attempt risk by age group. Additionally, we observed that firearms and alcohol vendors were associated with increased risk for suicide attempts irrespective of the age group examined, but that their effects were small in comparison to the top features. Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of social determinants and environmental factors in understanding suicide risk among veterans.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗