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At least 811 records · Page 45

Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

Babcock, Chad↗

Sequential Bayesian Parameter Estimation of Stochastic Dynamic Load Models

In this paper we focus on the parameter estimation of dynamic load models with stochastic terms-in particular, load models where protection settings are uncertain, such as in aggregated air conditioning units. We show how the uncertainty in the aggregated protection characteristics can be formulated as a stochastic differential equation with process noise. We cast the parameter inversion within a Bayesian parameter estimation framework, and we present methods to include process noise. We demonstrate the benefits of considering stochasticity in the parameter estimation and the risks of ignoring it.

Bayesian Statistics↗

Toward a Unified Framework for WEC Numerical Modeling

This presentation is about moving toward a united framework for WEC numerical modeling. A unified framework for WEC numerical modeling could help device developers on three fronts: 1) optimization; 2) more accurate load estimates; 3) validation.

modeling↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of a Nuclear Reactor System coupled with a Liquid Metal Battery

There is a need for nuclear reactor systems to become more dynamic as defossilization and renewable energy sources continue to reshape the energy grid. One option to meet these changing demands is to pair the reactor with an energy storage system. This work details a technoeconomic analysis and sensitivity analysis of a high temperature gas cooled microreactor, supercritical carbon dioxide power cycle, and liquid metal battery. Dynamic modeling has shown that these three systems compliment each other to provide load following and black-start capabilities to the grid. Current cost estimates for installing the systems yield a competitive levelized cost of electricity and levelized cost of storage, indicating that such a combined system may be economically viable as technological advances lead to them being technically feasible.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Self-Tuning Kalman Filter for Autonomous Spacecraft Navigation

Most navigation systems currently operated by NASA are ground-based, and require extensive support to produce accurate results. Recently developed systems that use Kalman Filter and Global Positioning System (GPS) data for orbit determination greatly reduce dependency on ground support, and have potential to provide significant economies for NASA spacecraft navigation. Current techniques of Kalman filtering, however, still rely on manual tuning from analysts, and cannot help in optimizing autonomy without compromising accuracy and performance. This paper presents an approach to produce a high accuracy autonomous navigation system fully integrated with the flight system. The resulting system performs real-time state estimation by using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) implemented with high-fidelity state dynamics model, as does the GPS Enhanced Orbit Determination Experiment (GEODE) system developed by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Augmented to the EKF is a sophisticated neural-fuzzy system, which combines the explicit knowledge representation of fuzzy logic with the learning power of neural networks. The fuzzy-neural system performs most of the self-tuning capability and helps the navigation system recover from estimation errors. The core requirement is a method of state estimation that handles uncertainties robustly, capable of identifying estimation problems, flexible enough to make decisions and adjustments to recover from these problems, and compact enough to run on flight hardware. The resulting system can be extended to support geosynchronous spacecraft and high-eccentricity orbits. Mathematical methodology, systems and operations concepts, and implementation of a system prototype are presented in this paper. Results from the use of the prototype to evaluate optimal control algorithms implemented are discussed. Test data and major control issues (e.g., how to define specific roles for fuzzy logic to support the self-learning capability) are also discussed. In addition, architecture of a complete end-to-end candidate flight system that provides navigation with highly autonomous control using data from GPS is presented.

Truong, Son H.↗

Design of 1500V/200kW 99.6% Efficiency Dual Active Bridge Converters Based on 1700V SiC Power MOSFET Module

High efficiency, high density and galvanically isolated power converters are attractive for medium voltage high power applications. This paper presents a 1.5kV/200kW bidirectional Dual Active Bridge (DAB) converter using a newly developed 1.7kV SiC MOSFET module. The intended application is megawatt scale solid state transformer (SST) and 1500V PV inverter application using modular architecture. One novel model to estimate the turn-off loss using snubber capacitors is proposed and experimentally verified. An optimized PCB-based busbar design is introduced to reduce the voltage overshoot across the SiC device, making the design suitable for 1.5kVdc applications. The mechanism of how the optimized PCB-based busbar can reduce the voltage overshoot is quantitatively interpreted and experimentally verified. The DAB converter achieved an efficiency of 98.85% at 200kW and a maximum of 99.53% at 60kW. The maximum efficiency for series-resonant mode is 99.6% at 85kW and 99.3% at 200kW. The power density is 26W/inch3 (1.6MW/m3) which is much higher than traditional industry products.

Xu, Wei↗

Geological study of an outburst flood event in the upper Yangtze River and risk of similar extreme events

Here, outburst flood sediments are studied on the upper course of the Yangtze River (known as the Jinsha River) where is a key region for the development of hydroelectric power. As the history and magnitude of outburst flooding in this stretch of the Jinsha River during historic times has remained largely undocumented, we have endeavored as part of this study to conduct field investigations into, and provide numerical dating (using OSL and 14 C dating techniques) of outburst flood evidence found in the First Bend area of the Yangtze River. Carbonized nutshells and charcoal from the ancient settlement yielded 14 C ages that precisely pinpointed an outburst flood event ~1200–1300 cal yr BP, during China's Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE). However, OSL ages using the minimum age model for all outburst flood samples ranged from 9.1 to 1.8 ka, which was ~0.5–7.8 ka older than the 14 C-dated outburst flood. This discrepancy suggests a potential overestimation of quartz age when dating outburst flood sediments from the Holocene period. Furthermore, using 2D hydraulic modeling, we estimated the magnitude of the aforementioned outburst flood, revealing a reconstructed peak flow discharge of 51,000–55,300 m 3 /s. This discharge was three times greater than the 10,000-year flood for the hydroelectric power station nearest to the study area. Our study underscores the significant role of combining archaeological and geological evidence in enhancing paleoflood hydrology research. Through a multidisciplinary approach, our findings emphasize the importance of paleoflood hydrology studies in comprehending both the latent and catastrophic flood risks in alpine mountain areas amid the context of global warming.

14C dating↗

Coupled Reactor Multiphysics and Mass Scalability Assessment for Crewed Megawatt-Class NEP System Architectures

Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) is an in-space propulsion technology capable of enabling opposition and conjunction class crewed Mars missions. NEP subsystems include the reactor for heat generation, a power conversion system (PCS), power management and distribution (PMAD), electric propulsion subsystem (EPS), and a primary heat rejection system. Specific mass, or αe (kg / kWe), is a key performance parameter (KPP) of the propulsion system which is directly scalable with the performance and mass estimates for individual components. To inform technology maturation planning, full system and component level parametric modeling is ongoing to explore the design trade space and illustrate the effect of subsystem design choices on the system KPPs. In this study, scaling of high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) reactor designs is assessed through coupled reactor physics and thermal hydraulics analyses. Scaling analyses evaluate the impact of system performance parameters (power level, interface temperatures) on mass for direct gas cooled, pumped liquid metal, and passively cooled heat pipe reactor concepts. Each concept requires specific geometries and working fluids to reach the performance goals of PCS interface conditions (temperature, pressure, flow rate) and system mass. The reactor assembly includes the active core (fuel, moderator, cladding, working fluid), axial and radial neutron reflectors, control drums, structural support / pressure vessel, and external radiation shielding. Each of these components are parametrically sized based on performance parameters for a megawatt-class power cycle. Results of this scaling analysis increase NEP propulsion system modeling fidelity and ultimately aim to support technology down-selection along with related technology development planning. The reactor and shield αe are a function of several PCS design choices, and reactor scaling with these parameters must be considered to enable an informed decision on reactor geometry and working fluid combination.

Nuclear Electric Propulsion↗

Spatial Impacts of Electric Vehicle Charging on Power Grid Stability: A Downtown Atlanta Case Study

The rapid increase in electric vehicle (EV) charging demand poses a potential risk to power grid stability, particularly as the spatial distribution of this demand remains underexplored. Existing research often focuses on technical optimization models while overlooking the geographic and human dynamics that affect energy consumption. This study addresses this gap by incorporating mobility data to estimate both building energy use and EV charging demand while also considering geographic factors for a better understanding of grid load. Using agent-based simulations and the Open-Source Distribution System Simulator, the study evaluates the effect of various EV penetration scenarios on grid voltage and unbalance. The results show that, although voltage remains within acceptable limits at lower EV penetration rates, significant voltage drop and unbalance occur as EV penetration exceeds 40%, particularly in residential areas with high charging demand. This study offers a framework for integrating spatial analysis and mobility data in power network simulations, providing insights for future EV infrastructure planning.

Pan, Melrose [ORNL] (ORCID:000000031627448X)↗

A General Decentralized Dynamic State Estimation With Synchronous Generator Magnetic Saturation

We report the saturation of the nonlinear magnetic circuit of synchronous generators is often neglected when performing Kalman filter-based dynamic state estimation (DSE), yielding significant estimation bias. This letter addresses this problem and proposes a generalized DSE framework to handle magnetic saturation. Moreover, this letter derives a state initialization procedure that improves the Kalman filter tracking speed. The framework is flexible in dealing with different saturation functions and generator models. Numerical results on the Texas 2000-bus system verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Uncovering acoustic signatures of pore formation in laser powder bed fusion

Abstract We present a machine learning workflow to discover signatures in acoustic measurements that can be utilized to create a low-dimensional model to accurately predict the location of keyhole pores formed during additive manufacturing processes. Acoustic measurements were sampled at 100 kHz during single-layer laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) experiments, and spatio-temporal registration of pore locations was obtained from post-build radiography. Power spectral density (PSD) estimates of the acoustic data were then decomposed using non-negative matrix factorization with custom $$\varvec{k}$$ k -means clustering (NMF $$\varvec{k}$$ k ) to learn the underlying spectral patterns associated with pore formation. NMF $$\varvec{k}$$ k returned a library of basis signals and matching coefficients to blindly construct a feature space based on the PSD estimates in an optimized fashion. Moreover, the NMF $$\varvec{k}$$ k decomposition led to the development of computationally inexpensive machine learning models which are capable of quickly and accurately identifying pore formation with classification accuracy of supervised and unsupervised label learning greater than 95% and 90%, respectively. The intrinsic data compression of NMF k , the relatively light computational cost of the machine learning workflow, and the high classification accuracy makes the proposed workflow an attractive candidate for edge computing toward in-situ keyhole pore prediction in LPBF.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Estimated performance and future potential of solar dynamic and photovoltaic power systems for selected LEO and HEO missions

Solar Photo Voltaic (PV) and thermal dynamic power systems for application to selected Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and High Eccentric Orbit (Energy) (HEO) missions are characterized in the regime 7 to 35 kWe. Input parameters to the characterization are varied corresponding to anticipated introduction of improved or new technologies. Comparative assessment is made between the two power system types utilizing newly emerging technologies in cells and arrays, energy storage, optical surfaces, heat engines, thermal energy storage, and thermal management. The assessment is made to common ground rules and assumptions. The four missions (space station, sun-synchronous, Van Allen belt and GEO) are representative of the anticipated range of multi-kWe earth orbit missions. System characterizations include all required subsystems, including power conditioning, cabling, structure, to deliver electrical power to the user. Performance is estimated on the basis of three different levels of component technology: (1) state-of-art, (2) near-term, and (3) advanced technologies. These range from planar array silicon/IPV nickel hydrogen batteries and Brayton systems at 1000 K to thin film GaAs with high energy density secondary batteries or regenerative fuel cells and 1300 K Stirling systems with ultra-lightweight concentrators and radiators. The system estimates include design margin for performance degradations from the known environmental mechanisms (micrometeoroids and space debris, atomic oxygen, electron and proton flux) which are modeled and applied depending on the mission. The results give expected performance, mass and drag of multi-kWe earth orbiting solar power systems and show how overall system figures of merit will improve as new component technologies are incorporated.

Bents, David J.↗

Thermal Cycling for Development of Hybrid Fuel for a Notional Mars Ascent Vehicle

A Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) would be a critical part of a potential Mars sample return campaign. As currently envisioned, the MAV would launch samples from Mars into Mars orbit. Challenging requirements would be placed on a MAV as it would need to be able to survive in the harsh Martian environment which can get as cold as -120°C in the winter. At these cold temperatures, survival heating could be necessary to keep the MAV within the allowable flight temperature range. Estimates for survival heating power show that a fuel capable of operating at low temperature would significantly reduce the total required energy of the MAV. This has led to consideration of a hybrid propulsion system due to its anticipated low temperature capability. A new wax-based fuel, SP7, has been developed for a notional MAV mission. Thermal modeling of the fuel in the Mars environment was completed in order to estimate the temperature response of the fuel during Mars diurnal temperature cycling. Preliminary thermal testing was conducted to determine the max temperature range, radial gradient, and ramp rate the fuel could tolerate without cracking. The modeling and preliminary testing was used to develop a comprehensive, 100-day thermal cycling campaign. A total of 200 cycles are planned that are representative of 200 Martian diurnal cycles, roughly one-third of a Martian year. After 150 cycles, the fuel samples show no signs of cracking that would jeopardize the rocket’s performance. Though not yet complete, this testing is showing that SP7 has the potential to successfully be used on a MAV mission.

Farias, Edgardo↗

Modeling the Swift BAT Trigger Algorithm with Machine Learning

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. (2014) is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of approximately greater than 97% (approximately less than 3% error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux which has an accuracy of 89:6% (10:4% error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of eta(sub 0) approximately 0.48(+0.41/-0.23) Gpc(exp -3) yr(exp -1) with power-law indices of eta(sub 1) approximately 1.7(+0.6/-0.5) and eta(sub 2) approximately -5.9(+5.7/-0.1) for GRBs above and below a break point of z(sub 1) approximately 6.8(+2.8/-3.2). This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting. The code used in this is analysis is publicly available online.

gamma rays: general↗

Supporting ARPA-E Power Grid Optimization (Final Report)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Arizona State University (ASU), Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Texas A&M University (TAMU), The University of Texas at Austin (UT), and the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-M) supported the ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition by providing a common problem formulation, data format, datasets, evaluation mechanism, scoring, rules, and results that resulted in the awarding of $\$9.24$ million dollars to teams from academia, industry, and national labs for solving three sets of increasingly difficult non-linear, security- constrained AC Optimal Powerflow (AC-OPF) optimization problems in order to increase the efficiency of the US Electric Grid. It is estimated that a 1% increase in efficiency can save $\$1$ billion. Current industry practices typically use a linear DC model (DC-OPF) in order solve the OPF problem within the time constraints of the operation schedule. The GO Competition challenges the best power engineers, mathematicians, and computer scientists to make possible operational decisions based on accurate physical models. To accomplish this, the GO Competition created a series of Challenges and funded teams to produce the best solver. Challenge 1 was to solve the security constrained Alternating Current Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF) problem. Challenge 2 extended that to by adding adjustable transformer tap ratios, phase shifting transformers, switchable shunts, price-responsive demand, ramp rate constrained generators and loads, and fast-start unit commitment (UC). Furthermore, Challenge 2 was a maximization problem while Challenge 1 was a minimization problem. While Challenge 3 was being developed, the entrants were invited to find better solutions to the Challenge 2 synthetic datasets with no restrictions on time, hardware, or algorithms. The Challenge 2 solutions turned out to be very good. Challenge 3 expanded the Challenge 2 problem further by using multiperiod dynamic markets, including advisory models for extreme weather events, day-ahead markets, and the real-time markets with an extended look-ahead. These problems included active bid-in demand and topology optimization. Together the Challenges used nearly 30 million CPU hours. Since each team was working on the same problem, using the same data, and running on the same hardware, fair comparisons could be drawn as to the best solver. The datasets were varied enough, however, that the best solver for one dataset was not necessarily the best at another, so cumulative scores were used. The process was managed by the PNNL maintained website https://GOCompetition.energy.gov, where Entrants could find information about the problem, the data, the rules, submit their solver for evaluation, and see the scores of all the competing teams on a Leaderboard. Interest was world-wide but only American teams were eligible for prizes. The Competition has produced 34 journal articles 115 papers and been cited over 500 times in the literature, including 12 dissertations (4 from foreign countries; Columbia (2), Germany, and Italy) and 3 from the DOE ExaScale project. Software developed by Pearl Street Technologies for Challenges 1 and 2 is now deployed by Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and Midcontinent Independent Service Operator (MISO). Other teams have received inquiries from venture capitalists. Google DeepMind has thanked the Competition for making the datasets developed for the Competition public. They are using it to train machine learning models. The larger datasets have billions of unknowns to be solved for, but only a small percent matter in the final solution. Knowing what unknowns are important can dramatically speedup the solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Position Index of Overhead LED Sources Under Different Spectral Power Distributions and Background Luminances

The position index was developed by Luckiesh and Guth in 1949 and is widely used in discomfort glare models to account for the position of the glare source when predicting the presence and magnitude of visual discomfort. The applicability of this index to modern LED sources has not been evaluated; however, it is of concern due to potentially higher luminance levels of LEDs compared to the sources used by Luckiesh and Guth. Furthermore, the position index of overhead sources beyond 60° above the line of sight has not been quantified. An experiment was conducted using a hemispherical apparatus with LED sources. The position of the light source, background luminance, the spectral power distribution, and anchor (starting luminance level before adjustment) were varied and two procedures were used to determine the position index of these sources. Data from 29 participants indicate that overhead sources located 60° or 80° above the line of sight were detectable and their position index can be quantified. The position index values were found to be higher than those reported in previous studies, suggesting that anchor bias and the small luminance range in previous studies likely influenced their position index values. No differences were found in position index values by spectral power distribution, background luminance, participant age group, or eyeglass wearing. In conclusion, the position index values reported in this study account for range and anchor bias, providing a better estimate that should be incorporated into discomfort glare models.

Discomfort glare↗

Constraining low redshift [C II ] emission by cross-correlating FIRAS and BOSS data

ABSTRACT We perform a tomographic cross-correlation analysis of archival FIRAS data and the BOSS galaxy redshift survey to constrain the amplitude of [C II] 2P3/2 → 2P1/2 fine structure emission. Our analysis employs spherical harmonic tomography (SHT), which is based on the angular cross-power spectrum between FIRAS maps and BOSS galaxy over-densities at each pair of redshift bins, over a redshift range of 0.24 < z < 0.69. We develop the SHT approach for intensity mapping, where it has several advantages over existing power spectral estimators. Our analysis constrains the product of the [C II] bias and [C II] specific intensity, $b_{\rm [C \small{\rm II}]}I_{\rm [C \small{\rm II}]}$, to be <0.31 MJy/sr at z ≈ 0.35 and <0.28 MJy/sr at z ≈ 0.57 at $95{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence. These limits are consistent with most current models of the [C II] signal, as well as with higher-redshift [C II] cross-power spectrum measurements from the Planck satellite and BOSS quasars. We also show that our analysis, if applied to data from a more sensitive instrument such as the proposed PIXIE satellite, can detect pessimistic [C II] models at high significance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Satellite Beach Energy - Restructuring the Energy Balance in Satellite Beach, Florida, by Quantifying Solar Energy Production Potential using NASA POWER Data Products and LiDAR

The City of Satellite Beach, Florida, has committed to supplying 100% of its energy use from renewable energy, primarily solar, by the year 2050. The team created a methodology for estimating rooftop solar power potential using a high-resolution Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) dataset and the NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) dataset to assist Satellite Beach in reaching their solar renewable energy goals. The POWER dataset provides information on direct and diffuse solar irradiation on horizontal surfaces, surface albedo, and effects of local meteorology, such as clouds. The team integrated the solar irradiance data with the LiDAR data to model slope, aspect, and shadowing in the 7 km2 study area to find suitable roof segments for solar panel installation and estimate the solar potential of each segment. This process was supplemented by an analysis of land surface temperature and urban greenness measured through the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager and Thermal Infrared Sensor (OLI/TIRS) observations. These metrics serve to target areas for cooling initiatives aimed at reducing Satellite Beach’s overall energy consumption. The team found the total rooftop solar potential throughout the city to be 221,919,330KWh per year with an average annual rooftop photovoltaic, or PV, potential of 55,647KWh per building. As such, the average building could generate over five times the annual energy needs for an average household if PV panels were installed on all viable areas of its roof.

Spencer Nelson↗