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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

State selectivity in core ionization of methane

A clear experimental signature of the population of the lowest triplet state T 1 3 of the methane dication is identified in a photoionization experiment. This state is populated only in valence ionization and is absent when the dication is formed by core ionization followed by Auger-Meitner decay. For valence ionization, the total internal energy of the CH 3 + fragment, formed during the deprotonation of CH 4 2 + , is evaluated. Notably, the distribution of this internal energy peaks at the same value regardless of the initially populated electronic state of CH 4 2 + . We find that excited electronic states of CH 3 + are predominantly populated with significant rovibrational excitation. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Rajput, J. (ORCID:0000000157752543)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning Scene Classification Experiments in Automatic Detection of Slums on Planetscope Imagery

Population growth is increasingly happening in slum settlements of the large urban centers in the Global South. The term "slum" encompasses a wide range of communities, located mostly in underserved areas, and often exhibiting distinct structural and functional informalities with a relatively high concentration of marginalized populations. To address the issues confronting slums for effective planning and development, including the realistic estimation of the resident population, identifying them accurately is fundamental. Given the disagreements over a universal definition, diverse characteristic features, and socio-political limitations, global detection of slums is a veritable challenge. In this paper, we present experiments in slum detection using a scene classification algorithm and 3-meter spatial resolution satellite imagery. We train and evaluate the model for slum detection in Mumbai, India for the year 2023 and test the temporal generalization of the trained model on Mumbai in 2020 and 2018. In addition, we explore the pathways toward geographic generalization to Kolkata and Delhi (India). We discuss several limitations in the workflow and model, situate our findings in the existing literature, and suggest improvements and alternatives. With this, we establish baseline methods and experiments as a first step towards developing an image-based global slum detection framework and algorithm. This work adds to the community discussion on methods, data challenges, and open questions related to the detection of slums globally. With this research, we hope to improve our understanding of human settlements, especially in critical areas, improve population estimates, and help measure progress towards the sustainable development goals.

Arndt, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2020

Frequency-domain Flexibility Characterization of Heterogeneous End-use Loads for Grid Services

Demand response, based on flexible loads, has been a novel and important proposal for smart grids. A population of small loads can be aggregated to provide ancillary services to the grid and generate value for the owners. In this paper, we investigate the flexibility of such populations from the frequency-domain perspective. We propose a methodology to characterize the frequency-dependent flexibility of heterogeneous populations of loads considering practical constraints. The resultant frequency-domain characterization can help flexible load aggregators assess the capability of contracted populations. System operators can also benefit from a better understanding of the capabilities of the service providers. The effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by simulations.

Wang, Dexin↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning to Count Grave Sites for Cemetery Observation Models With Satellite Imagery

Understanding how people occupy open spaces is important for research in support of population modeling, policy, national security, emergency response, and sustainability. For the past decade, there has been an increase in research toward capturing and reporting population dynamics and patterns of life at the building level and in some open public spaces such as cemeteries and parks. This is done through observation models developed from local sociocultural information acquired at various spatiotemporal scales to inform night, day, and episodic population occupancy estimates (people/1000 sq ft). Sociocultural information for cemeteries and parks is scarcely available and often collected manually. The process is not only marred by inconsistencies but is laborious and time consuming. In this study, we leverage convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and satellite imagery to derive grave site counts as proxy variables to support scalable and accurate sociocultural data required in a population observation model. Through a hybrid workflow (weak localization plus regression model), we characterize a large scale automation process to counting of grave sites. We evaluate and demonstrate the efficacy of proposed workflow using out-of-data set large satellite imagery and establish its broader impact on cemetery observation models.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Demographic analysis of invasible habitat fraction identifies context‐dependent roles of resource availability and biotic resistance in determining invasion success

Abstract Theories of plant invasions predict that plant communities should be more easily invaded when resources increase and/or competition decreases. We tested this with an experimentally introduced plant population by manipulating precipitation and resident community biomass. We used a spatially explicit demographic approach to develop a new population‐level metric of invasibility that quantifies the invasible habitat fraction (IHF) across the landscape. The existing community was essentially uninvasible (median IHF ≈ 0%), but experimental manipulations greatly increased the range of outcomes, with maximum observed IHF values over 50%. However, changes in invasibility were often context‐dependent, resulting in some outcomes that aligned with existing theory, and others that were not readily predicted. Moreover, variation in invasibility was often driven by specific sets of invader demographic vital rates. Removing competitors revealed the capacity for strong biotic resistance, but this interacted with precipitation such that little biotic resistance was detected under drought conditions. Adding precipitation typically had little positive effect on invasibility, and moderate drought relief led to relatively high invasibility. However, the latter was driven to a large extent by interactions with mammal herbivory that otherwise inhibited invasion in one year. Synthesis . Our findings show that interactions between abiotic and biotic factors, as well as legacy effects, can strongly mediate invasibility. This study also highlights the importance of incorporating spatial heterogeneity into population‐level assessments of invasion, as initial population declines do not necessarily indicate resistance to invasion.

Griffith, Alden B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Taming the terminological tempest in invasion science

ABSTRACT Standardised terminology in science is important for clarity of interpretation and communication. In invasion science – a dynamic and rapidly evolving discipline – the proliferation of technical terminology has lacked a standardised framework for its development. The result is a convoluted and inconsistent usage of terminology, with various discrepancies in descriptions of damage and interventions. A standardised framework is therefore needed for a clear, universally applicable, and consistent terminology to promote more effective communication across researchers, stakeholders, and policymakers. Inconsistencies in terminology stem from the exponential increase in scientific publications on the patterns and processes of biological invasions authored by experts from various disciplines and countries since the 1990s, as well as publications by legislators and policymakers focusing on practical applications, regulations, and management of resources. Aligning and standardising terminology across stakeholders remains a challenge in invasion science. Here, we review and evaluate the multiple terms used in invasion science (e.g. ‘non‐native’, ‘alien’, ‘invasive’ or ‘invader’, ‘exotic’, ‘non‐indigenous’, ‘naturalised’, ‘pest’) to propose a more simplified and standardised terminology. The streamlined framework we propose and translate into 28 other languages is based on the terms ( i ) ‘non‐native’, denoting species transported beyond their natural biogeographic range, ( ii ) ‘established non‐native’, i.e. those non‐native species that have established self‐sustaining populations in their new location(s) in the wild, and ( iii ) ‘invasive non‐native’ – populations of established non‐native species that have recently spread or are spreading rapidly in their invaded range actively or passively with or without human mediation. We also highlight the importance of conceptualising ‘spread’ for classifying invasiveness and ‘impact’ for management. Finally, we propose a protocol for classifying populations based on ( i ) dispersal mechanism, ( ii ) species origin, ( iii ) population status, and ( iv ) impact. Collectively and without introducing new terminology, the framework that we present aims to facilitate effective communication and collaboration in invasion science and management of non‐native species.

Soto, Ismael↗
DOE OSTI2023

Otolith 87 Sr / 86 Sr identifies natal origin, movement and life history of Burbot Lota lota in the Kootenai River following 45 years of impoundment

Abstract Hydropower has long been an effective form of renewable energy, but the development of the resource has negatively impacted fishes throughout the world. Formulating recovery plans to mitigate these effects requires a firm understanding of species‐specific provenance, life history and life stage habitat requirements. However, the importance of this information is often only recognised after a substantial population decline, when obtaining it becomes demographically challenging. We provide a case study for this scenario and present a post hoc approach to gain insight into these critical data gaps for Burbot Lota lota in the upper Kootenai River in Montana and British Columbia. The population once supported a robust tribal and recreational harvest but declined following impoundment and these fisheries have remained closed or curtailed for nearly 20 years. The reasons for the decline are unknown and actions to assist recovery have been constrained by limited information regarding natal origin, life history and habitat use. We addressed this issue using strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths collected over four decades in Lake Koocanusa, the reservoir on the Kootenai River above Libby Dam. Due to the geologic heterogeneity of the basin and resulting variation in water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, the assignment probability for Burbot to their region of natal origin approached unity. Otolith 87 Sr/ 86 Sr also indicated the population was comprised of mainstem‐ and tributary‐origin forms and their relative abundance changed over time. Mainstem Burbot was most abundant during the 1970s and 2000s, whereas tributary forms dominated between these periods. We suggest ecosystem changes following impoundment contributed to this shift in life history forms and the overall decline of the population. Our findings underscore the need for additional investigations of these impacts to guide restoration efforts.

Dunnigan, James L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Domestication in dry-cured meat Penicillium fungi: Convergent specific phenotypes and horizontal gene transfers without strong genetic subdivision

Some fungi have been domesticated for food production, with genetic differentiation between populations from food and wild environments, and food populations often acquiring beneficial traits through horizontal gene transfers (HGTs). Studying their adaptation to human-made substrates is of fundamental and applied importance for understanding adaptation processes and for further strain improvement. We studied here the population structures and phenotypes of two distantly related Penicillium species used for dry-cured meat production, P. nalgiovense, the most common species in the dry-cured meat food industry, and P. salamii, used locally by farms. Both species displayed low genetic diversity, lacking differentiation between strains isolated from dry-cured meat and those from other environments. Nevertheless, the strains collected from dry-cured meat within each species displayed slower proteolysis and lipolysis than their wild conspecifics, and those of P. nalgiovense were whiter. Phenotypically, the non-dry-cured meat strains were more similar to their sister species than to their conspecific dry-cured meat strains, indicating an evolution of specific phenotypes in dry-cured meat strains. A comparison of available Penicillium genomes from various environments revealed HGTs, particularly between P. nalgiovense and P. salamii (representing almost 1.5 Mb of cumulative length). HGTs additionally involved P. biforme, also found in dry-cured meat products. We further detected positive selection based on amino acid changes. Our findings suggest that selection by humans has shaped the P. salamii and P. nalgiovense populations used for dry-cured meat production, which constitutes domestication. Several genetic and phenotypic changes were similar in P. salamii, P. nalgiovense and P. biforme, indicating convergent adaptation to the same human-made environment. Our findings have implications for fundamental knowledge on adaptation and for the food industry: the discovery of different phenotypes and of two mating types paves the way for strain improvement by conventional breeding, to elucidate the genomic bases of beneficial phenotypes and to generate diversity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Natural soil microbiome variation affects spring foliar phenology with consequences for plant productivity and climate-driven range shifts

Identifying the potential for natural soil microbial communities to predictably affect complex plant traits is an important frontier in climate change research. Plant phenology varies with environmental and genetic factors, but few studies have examined if the soil microbiome interacts with plant population differentiation to affect phenology and ecosystem function. We compared soil microbial variation in a widespread tree species (Populus angustifolia) with different soil inoculum treatments in a common garden environment to test how the soil microbiome affects spring foliar phenology and subsequent biomass growth. We hypothesized and show that: 1) soil bacterial and fungal communities vary with tree conditioning from different populations and elevations, 2) this soil community variation influences patterns of foliar phenology and plant growth across populations and elevation gradients, and 3) transferring lower elevation plant genotypes to higher elevation soil communities delayed foliar phenology, thereby shortening the growing season and reducing annual biomass production. Our findings show the importance of plant-soil interactions that help shape the timing of tree foliar phenology and productivity. Here, these geographic patterns in plant population x microbiome interactions also broaden our understanding of how soil communities impact plant phenotypic variation across key climate change gradients, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diversity and scale: Genetic architecture of 2068 traits in the VA Million Veteran Program

One of the justifiable criticisms of human genetic studies is the underrepresentation of participants from diverse populations. Lack of inclusion must be addressed at-scale to identify causal disease factors and understand the genetic causes of health disparities. We present genome-wide associations for 2068 traits from 635,969 participants in the Department of Veterans Affairs Million Veteran Program, a longitudinal study of diverse United States Veterans. Systematic analysis revealed 13,672 genomic risk loci; 1608 were only significant after including non-European populations. Fine-mapping identified causal variants at 6318 signals across 613 traits. One-third (n = 2069) were identified in participants from non-European populations. This reveals a broadly similar genetic architecture across populations, highlights genetic insights gained from underrepresented groups, and presents an extensive atlas of genetic associations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Partitioning maternal and exogenous diet contributions to otolith 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in kokanee salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka )

Strontium isotopes ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) recorded in the otoliths of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) are commonly used to identify natal origin. For species that migrate at or soon after emergence, the embryonic region of the otolith provides the only record of provenance. However, maternal contribution of Sr from the yolk can confound the isotopic signature of the natal site. We experimentally quantified maternal and exogenous diet contributions to otolith 87 Sr/ 86 Sr over embryonic development in kokanee salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). Eggs from two populations in isotopically distinct lakes were incubated and reared in a common water source. Timing of developmental events and proportional contribution from yolk to otolith 87 Sr/ 86 Sr differed significantly between the two populations. We suggest that the magnitude of difference in 87 Sr/ 86 Sr between yolk and water, the relative concentrations of Sr and Ca in these isotopic sources, and population-specific effects on otolith growth and composition contribute to this variation. Furthermore, understanding how these factors affect otolith 87 Sr/ 86 Sr could extend the use of otolith geochemistry for determining provenance to species and populations in which natal site rearing is limited.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating the Particle Growth in Bimodal Pt/C Catalysts by In-Situ Small-Angle X-ray Scattering: Challenges in the Evaluation of Stress Test Protocol-Dependent Degradation Mechanisms

The influence of different combinations of accelerated stress test (AST) protocols simulating load-cycle and start/stop conditions of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) vehicle is investigated on a bimodal Pt/C catalyst. The bimodal Pt/C catalyst, prepared by mixing two commercial catalysts, serves as a model system and consists of two distinguishable size populations. The change in mean particle size was investigated by in situ small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). The comparison to the reference catalysts, i.e., the two single-size population catalysts, uncovers the presence of electrochemical Ostwald ripening as a degradation mechanism in the bimodal catalyst. Increasing the harshness of the applied AST protocol combinations by faster changing between load-cycle or start/stop conditions, the particle size of the larger population of the bimodal catalyst increases faster than expected. Surprisingly, the change in mean particle size of the smaller size population indicates a smaller increase for harsher AST protocols, which might be explained by a substantial electrochemical Ostwald ripening.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗
DOE OSTI2020

A data-driven mobility–energy typology framework for New York State

Exploring multidimensional aspects of differences in technology adoption, travel, and vehicle ownership across settlement types can help inform energy-efficient and affordable mobility system goals. Concurrently, mapping key enablers, barriers, and risks for successfully meeting ambitious goals and targets (e.g. by geography, age, income, education, population density) offer important explanatory power as to context-specific challenges and opportunities. This paper explores how a highly geographically resolved understanding of social, economic, techno-infrastructural, environmental, and governance (SET EG) factors shape variations in technology adoption and associated mobility and energy outcomes in diverse communities of New York State, in terms of electric vehicle adoption rates, alternative commute mode choices, vehicles per household, and vehicle fuel economy. Results indicate the range of two to three times higher adoption rates for electric vehicles by more highly educated, wealthier, “Core Urban” populations relative to the other identified typologies, given the labels “Rural”, “Suburban”, and “Urban” populations. Additionally, commute mode choice is closely linked with population and employment density—more than 89% of Core Urbanites use transit or active modes, compared with just 26% and 18% of Suburban and Rural residents, respectively. Household vehicle ownership varies from approximately 1.9 vehicles per household in Rural areas to only 0.6 in Core Urban settings. Findings on differences among the four settlement types, which go beyond simply rural to urban contexts, suggest an important need to explore how best to manage and anticipate very different types of services that may be supportive in achieving energy-efficient and affordable mobility systems statewide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

COMPILE: a GWAS computational pipeline for gene discovery in complex genomes

Abstract Background Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) are used to identify genes and alleles that contribute to quantitative traits in large and genetically diverse populations. However, traits with complex genetic architectures create an enormous computational load for discovery of candidate genes with acceptable statistical certainty. We developed a streamlined computational pipeline for GWAS (COMPILE) to accelerate identification and annotation of candidate maize genes associated with a quantitative trait, and then matches maize genes to their closest rice and Arabidopsis homologs by sequence similarity. Results COMPILE executed GWAS using a Mixed Linear Model that incorporated, without compression, recent advancements in population structure control, then linked significant Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) to candidate genes and RNA regulatory elements contained in any genome. COMPILE was validated using published data to identify QTL associated with the traits of α-tocopherol biosynthesis and flowering time, and identified published candidate genes as well as additional genes and non-coding RNAs. We then applied COMPILE to 274 genotypes of the maize Goodman Association Panel to identify candidate loci contributing to resistance of maize stems to penetration by larvae of the European Corn Borer ( Ostrinia nubilalis ). Candidate genes included those that encode a gene of unknown function, WRKY and MYB-like transcriptional factors, receptor-kinase signaling, riboflavin synthesis, nucleotide-sugar interconversion, and prolyl hydroxylation. Expression of the gene of unknown function has been associated with pathogen stress in maize and in rice homologs closest in sequence identity. Conclusions The relative speed of data analysis using COMPILE allowed comparison of population size and compression. Limitations in population size and diversity are major constraints for a trait and are not overcome by increasing marker density. COMPILE is customizable and is readily adaptable for application to species with robust genomic and proteome databases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sequentially calibrating a Bayesian microsimulation model to incorporate new information and assumptions

Background: Microsimulation models are mathematical models that simulate event histories for individual members of a population. They are useful for policy decisions because they simulate a large number of individuals from an idealized population, with features that change over time, and the resulting event histories can be summarized to describe key population-level outcomes. Model calibration is the process of incorporating evidence into the model. Calibrated models can be used to make predictions about population trends in disease outcomes and effectiveness of interventions, but calibration can be challenging and computationally expensive. Methods: This paper develops a technique for sequentially updating models to take full advantage of earlier calibration results, to ultimately speed up the calibration process. A Bayesian approach to calibration is used because it combines different sources of evidence and enables uncertainty quantification which is appealing for decision-making. We develop this method in order to re-calibrate a microsimulation model for the natural history of colorectal cancer to include new targets that better inform the time from initiation of preclinical cancer to presentation with clinical cancer (sojourn time), because model exploration and validation revealed that more information was needed on sojourn time, and that the predicted percentage of patients with cancers detected via colonoscopy screening was too low. Results: The sequential approach to calibration was more efficient than recalibrating the model from scratch. Incorporating new information on the percentage of patients with cancers detected upon screening changed the estimated sojourn time parameters significantly, increasing the estimated mean sojourn time for cancers in the colon and rectum, providing results with more validity. Conclusions: A sequential approach to recalibration can be used to efficiently recalibrate a microsimulation model when new information becomes available that requires the original targets to be supplemented with additional targets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parsed synthesis of pyocyanin via co-culture enables context-dependent intercellular redox communication

Abstract Background Microbial co-cultures and consortia are of interest in cell-based molecular production and even as “smart” therapeutics in that one can take advantage of division of labor and specialization to expand both the range of available functions and mechanisms for control. The development of tools that enable coordination and modulation of consortia will be crucial for future application of multi-population cultures. In particular, these systems would benefit from an expanded toolset that enables orthogonal inter-strain communication. Results We created a co-culture for the synthesis of a redox-active phenazine signaling molecule, pyocyanin (PYO), by dividing its synthesis into the generation of its intermediate, phenazine carboxylic acid (PCA) from the first strain, followed by consumption of PCA and generation of PYO in a second strain. Interestingly, both PCA and PYO can be used to actuate gene expression in cells engineered with the soxRS oxidative stress regulon, although importantly this signaling activity was found to depend on growth media. That is, like other signaling motifs in bacterial systems, the signaling activity is context dependent. We then used this co-culture’s phenazine signals in a tri-culture to modulate gene expression and production of three model products: quorum sensing molecule autoinducer-1 and two fluorescent marker proteins, eGFP and DsRed. We also showed how these redox-based signals could be intermingled with other quorum-sensing (QS) signals which are more commonly used in synthetic biology, to control complex behaviors. To provide control over product synthesis in the tri-cultures, we also showed how a QS-induced growth control module could guide metabolic flux in one population and at the same time guide overall tri-culture function. Specifically, we showed that phenazine signal recognition, enabled through the oxidative stress response regulon soxRS, was dependent on media composition such that signal propagation within our parsed synthetic system could guide different desired outcomes based on the prevailing environment. In doing so, we expanded the range of signaling molecules available for coordination and the modes by which they can be utilized to influence overall function of a multi-population culture. Conclusions Our results show that redox-based signaling can be intermingled with other quorum sensing signaling in ways that enable user-defined control of microbial consortia yielding various outcomes defined by culture medium. Further, we demonstrated the utility of our previously designed growth control module in influencing signal propagation and metabolic activity is unimpeded by orthogonal redox-based signaling. By exploring novel multi-modal strategies for guiding communication and consortia outcome, the concepts introduced here may prove to be useful for coordination of multiple populations within complex microbial systems.

Chun, Kayla↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reliability, stability during long-term storage, and intra-individual variation of circulating levels of osteopontin, osteoprotegerin, vascular endothelial growth factor-A, and interleukin-17A

Background: Studies in many populations have reported associations between circulating cytokine levels and various physiological or pathological conditions. However, the reliability of cytokine measurements in population studies, which measure cytokines in multiple assays over a prolonged period, has not been adequately examined; nor has stability during sample storage or intra-individual variation been assessed. Methods: We assessed (1) analytical reliability in short- and long-term repeated measurements; (2) stability and analytical reliability during long-term sample storage, and (3) variability within individuals over seasons, of four cytokines—osteopontin (OPN), osteoprotegerin (OPG), vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A), and interleukin-17A (IL-17A). Measurements in plasma or serum samples were made with commercial kits according to standard procedures. Estimation was performed by fitting a random or mixed effects linear model on the log scale. Results: In repeated assays over a short period, OPN, OPG, and VEGF-A had acceptable reliability, with intra- and inter-assay coefficients of variation (CV) less than 0.11. Reliability of IL-17A was poor, with inter- and intra-assay CV 0.85 and 0.43, respectively. During long-term storage, OPG significantly decayed (-33% per year; 95% confidence interval [-54, -3.7]), but not OPN or VEGF-A (-0.3% or -6.3% per year, respectively). Intra- and inter-assay CV over a long period were comparable to that in a short period except for a slight increase in inter-assay CV of VEGF-A. Within-individual variation was small for OPN and VEGF-A, with intra-class correlations (ICC) 0.68 and 0.83, respectively, but large for OPG (ICC 0.11). Conclusions: We conclude that OPN and VEGF-A can be reliably measured in a large population, that IL-17A is suitable only for small experiments, and that OPG should be assessed with caution due to degradation during storage and intra-individual variation. The overall results of our study illustrate the need for validation under relevant conditions when measuring circulating cytokines in population studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗