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DOE OSTI2025

Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data

Growing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted interventions. Motivated by this, we study the problem of prediction of vaccine hesitancy at the ZIP Code level, referred to as the VaxHesitancy problem. A significant challenge for this problem is the lack of high-resolution data that indicates hesitancy. Here, we develop a hybrid VaxHesSTL framework that combines a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to address the VaxHesitancy problem. The GNN uses a ZIP Code-level network to capture spatial signals from neighboring areas, while the RNN models the temporal dynamics present in the data. We train and evaluate VaxHesSTL using a large dataset, namely the All-Payer Claims Databases (APCD), for Virginia, consisting of insurance claims from over five million individuals for six years. We find that an aggregated contact network or graph, developed from a detailed activity-based population network, plays an important role in the performance of VaxHesSTL, compared to graph models based solely on spatial proximity. Experiments demonstrate that VaxHesSTL outperforms a range of state-of-the-art baselines, which rely solely on historical time series data without accounting for spatial relationships. Since hesitancy data at higher spatial resolution is often unavailable or hard to get, we incorporate an active learning approach with our VaxHesSTL framework to optimize the training set without compromising the prediction performance. We find that hesitancy data for only 18% of ZIP Codes selected by active learning allows us to forecast hesitancy for all the ZIP Codes in the Virginia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Based Optical Neuromorphic Classification

Typical approaches to classify scenes from light convert the light field to electrons to perform the computation in the digital electronic domain. This conversion and downstream computational analysis require significant power and time. Diffractive neural networks have recently emerged as unique systems to classify optical fields at lower energy and high speeds. Previous work has shown that a single layer of diffractive metamaterial can achieve high performance on classification tasks. In analogy with electronic neural networks, it is anticipated that multilayer diffractive systems would provide better performance, but the fundamental reasons for the potential improvement have not been established. In this work, we present extensive computational simulations of two - layer diffractive neural networks and show that they can achieve high performance with fewer diffractive features than single layer systems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment

As a genre of physics-informed machine learning, differentiable process-based hydrologic models (abbreviated as δ or delta models) with regionalized deep-network-based parameterization pipelines were recently shown to provide daily streamflow prediction performance closely approaching that of state-of-the-art long short-term memory (LSTM) deep networks. Meanwhile, δ models provide a full suite of diagnostic physical variables and guaranteed mass conservation. Here, we ran experiments to test (1) their ability to extrapolate to regions far from streamflow gauges and (2) their ability to make credible predictions of long-term (decadal-scale) change trends. We evaluated the models based on daily hydrograph metrics (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, etc.) and predicted decadal streamflow trends. For prediction in ungauged basins (PUB; randomly sampled ungauged basins representing spatial interpolation), δ models either approached or surpassed the performance of LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, depending on the meteorological forcing data used. They presented a comparable trend performance to LSTM for annual mean flow and high flow but worse trends for low flow. For prediction in ungauged regions (PUR; regional holdout test representing spatial extrapolation in a highly data-sparse scenario), δ models surpassed LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, and their advantages in mean and high flow trends became prominent. In addition, an untrained variable, evapotranspiration, retained good seasonality even for extrapolated cases. The δ models' deep-network-based parameterization pipeline produced parameter fields that maintain remarkably stable spatial patterns even in highly data-scarce scenarios, which explains their robustness. Combined with their interpretability and ability to assimilate multi-source observations, the δ models are strong candidates for regional and global-scale hydrologic simulations and climate change impact assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Role of Intersections in Fracture Connectivity

Networks of intersecting fractures often provide the flow paths through subsurface reservoirs. Assessing network connectivity is challenging because fracture intersections compose a vanishingly small fraction of the network void volume. In this paper, motivated by 3D X-ray imaging of the simplest element of fracture network, that is, two orthogonal fractures, we perform a percolation and finite-size scaling analysis to study the connectivity provided by fracture intersections. The conditions when an intersection enhances connectivity across a sample depend on spatial correlations in the fracture aperture distributions, on the stress state, and on the direction of flow. Here we consider three flow directions: (a) across intersections, (b) parallel to intersections and (c) around corners. For (a), intersections provide minimal enhancement of connectivity because they contribute little additional void area. For (b), intersections increase the probability of a connected path near threshold by enabling 3D connected pathways that are not possible in parallel fractures. Flow around corners, (c), is fundamentally the result of the intersection connecting two fractures in series and spatial correlations are broken around corners, suppressing the connectivity relative to (a). When the connected fractures are stressed equally, a joint percolation threshold emerges that continues to have scale invariance. However, when the fractures are stressed unequally, the system has mixed percolation without clearly defined percolation thresholds. In all cases, percolation probabilities are found to be scale dependent which has important consequences for the connectivity of larger fracture networks composed of the fundamental element studied here.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for "Enhancing 2-Pyrone Synthase Efficiency by High-Throughput Mass-Spectrometric Quantification and In Vitro/In Vivo Catalytic Performance Correlation"

Engineering efficient biocatalysts is essential for metabolic engineering to produce valuable bioproducts from renewable resources. However, due to the complexity of cellular metabolic networks, it is challenging to translate success in vitro into high performance in cells. To meet such a challenge, an accurate and efficient quantification method is necessary to screen a large set of mutants from complex cell culture and a careful correlation between the catalysis parameters in vitro and performance in cells is required. In this study, we employed a mass-spectrometry based high-throughput quantitative method to screen new mutants of 2-pyrone synthase (2PS) for triacetic acid lactone (TAL) biosynthesis through directed evolution in E. coli. From the process, we discovered two mutants with the highest improvement (46 fold) in titer and the fastest kcat (44 fold) over the wild type 2PS, respectively, among those reported in the literature. A careful examination of the correlation between intracellular substrate concentration, Michaelis-Menten parameters and TAL titer for these two mutants reveals that a fast reaction rate under limiting intracellular substrate concentrations is important for in-cell biocatalysis. Such properties can be tuned by protein engineering and synthetic biology to adopt these engineered proteins for the maximum activities in different intracellular environments.

catalysis↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing Qubit Readout with Autoencoders

In addition to the need for stable and precisely controllable qubits, quantum computers take advantage of good readout schemes. Superconducting qubit states can be inferred from the readout signal transmitted through a dispersively coupled resonator. Here, this work proposes a readout classification method for superconducting qubits based on a neural network pretrained with an autoencoder approach. A neural network is pretrained with qubit readout signals as autoencoders in order to extract relevant features from the data set. Afterward, the pretrained-network inner-layer values are used to perform a classification of the inputs in a supervised manner. We demonstrate that this method can enhance classification performance, particularly for short- and long-time measurements where more traditional methods present inferior performance.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spike-and-Slab Shrinkage Priors for Structurally Sparse Bayesian Neural Networks

Network complexity and computational efficiency have become increasingly significant aspects of deep learning. Sparse deep learning addresses these challenges by recovering a sparse representation of the underlying target function by reducing heavily overparameterized deep neural networks. Specifically, deep neural architectures compressed via structured sparsity (e.g., node sparsity) provide low-latency inference, higher data throughput, and reduced energy consumption. In this article, we explore two well-established shrinkage techniques, Lasso and Horseshoe, for model compression in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). To this end, we propose structurally sparse BNNs, which systematically prune excessive nodes with the following: 1) spike-and-slab group Lasso (SS-GL) and 2) SS group Horseshoe (SS-GHS) priors, and develop computationally tractable variational inference, including continuous relaxation of Bernoulli variables. We establish the contraction rates of the variational posterior of our proposed models as a function of the network topology, layerwise node cardinalities, and bounds on the network weights. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate the competitive performance of our models compared with the baseline models in prediction accuracy, model compression, and inference latency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Comparative Study of Physics‐Informed and Data‐Driven Neural Networks for Compound Flood Simulation at River‐Ocean Interfaces: A Case Study of Hurricane Irene

Simulating compound flooding (CF) at the river-ocean interface within large-scale Earth System Models (ESMs) presents significant challenges due to complex interactions between river discharge, storm surge, and tides. This study assesses the comparative advantages of physics-informed and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches for enhancing local ESM performance. We systematically compare data-driven neural network models (i.e., CNNs, U-Net, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit), and physics-informed neural network (PINN) models, including vanilla PINN and a finite-difference-based PINN (FD-PINN). Specifically, FD-PINN is introduced to enhance computational efficiency, accelerating vanilla PINNs by ∼6.5 times while improving accuracy. To enhance data-driven model training, a new data-generation approach is developed to sample historical fluvial and coastal flood events, which ensures a robust data set for extreme event prediction. The models are evaluated using a realistic one-dimensional river domain extracted from an ESM's river mesh and the Hurricane Irene event as an independent test case. Results show that FD-PINN achieves accurate predictions with significantly reduced computational costs relative to vanilla PINNs. Among data-driven models, the best overall performance is achieved by a CNN-LSTM hybrid, which balances accuracy and efficiency. While a fully connected CNN (CNN-FC) provides the best accuracy, it incurs high computational cost. Architectures lacking strong temporal modeling tend to underperform on unseen events. These findings highlight the importance of sequence-aware designs for robust generalization. This study reveals the trade-offs between physics-informed and data-driven models and proposes an adaptive hybrid framework for integrating ML into ESMs to enhance local flood simulations.

Earth Systems Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Trainability of Dissipative Perceptron-Based Quantum Neural Networks

Several architectures have been proposed for quantum neural networks (QNNs), with the goal of efficiently performing machine learning tasks on quantum data. Rigorous scaling results are urgently needed for specific QNN constructions to understand which, if any, will be trainable at a large scale. Here, we analyze the gradient scaling (and hence the trainability) for a recently proposed architecture that we call dissipative QNNs (DQNNs), where the input qubits of each layer are discarded at the layer’s output. We find that DQNNs can exhibit barren plateaus, i.e., gradients that vanish exponentially in the number of qubits. Moreover, we provide quantitative bounds on the scaling of the gradient for DQNNs under different conditions, such as different cost functions and circuit depths, and show that trainability is not always guaranteed. Here our work represents the first rigorous analysis of the scalability of a perceptron-based QNN.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advanced control techniques for modern inertia based inverters

In this research three artificial intelligent (AI)-based techniques are proposed to regulate the voltage and frequency of a grid-connected inverter. The increase in the penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) into the power grid has led to the increase in the penetration of fast-responding inertia-less power converters. The increase in the penetration of these power electronics converters changes the nature of the conventional grid, in which the existing kinetic inertia in the rotating parts of the enormous generators plays a vital role. The concept of virtual inertia control scheme is proposed to make the behavior of grid connected inverters more similar to the synchronous generators, by mimicking the mechanical behavior of a synchronous generator. Conventional control techniques lack to perform optimally in nonlinear, uncertain, inaccurate power grids. Besides, the decoupled control assumption in conventional VSGs makes them nonoptimal in resistive grids. The neural network predictive controller, the heuristic dynamic programming, and the dual heuristic dynamic programming techniques are presented in this research to overcome the draw backs of conventional VSGs. The nonlinear characteristics of neural networks, and the online training enable the proposed methods to perform as robust and optimal controllers. The simulation and the experimental laboratory prototype results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed techniques.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Prediction and Optimization of Energy Use for Transit Fleets of Electric and ICE Vehicles

Due to the high upfront cost of electric vehicles, many public transit agencies can afford only mixed fleets of internal combustion and electric vehicles. Optimizing the operation of such mixed fleets is challenging because it requires accurate trip-level predictions of electricity and fuel use as well as efficient algorithms for assigning vehicles to transit routes. We present a novel framework for the data-driven prediction of trip-level energy use for mixed-vehicle transit fleets and for the optimization of vehicle assignments, which we evaluate using data collected from the bus fleet of CARTA, the public transit agency of Chattanooga, TN. We first introduce a data collection, storage, and processing framework for system-level and high-frequency vehicle-level transit data, including domain-specific data cleansing methods. We train and evaluate machine learning models for energy prediction, demonstrating that deep neural networks attain the highest accuracy. Based on these predictions, we formulate the problem of minimizing energy use through assigning vehicles to fixed-route transit trips. We propose an optimal integer program as well as efficient heuristic and meta-heuristic algorithms, demonstrating the scalability and performance of these algorithms numerically using the transit network of CARTA.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Differentiable hybrid neural network approach for enhancing reactor dynamics simulations

Reactor dynamics simulations provide essential insights into the time-dependent behavior of nuclear reactors under various operating conditions. However, high-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, requiring significant computational resources. Here, to address this challenge, this study employs a differentiable hybrid model that utilizes neural networks as a corrector to enhance the performance of a low-fidelity simulation, aligning its predictions with those of a high-fidelity simulation. Low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations were obtained by adjusting the mesh size in the System Dynamics Analysis Tool. The differentiable hybrid model was trained in two approaches: time-step-wise and sequence-wise. It was then applied to simulate various transients in a molten salt reactor. Its performance was evaluated by comparing its responses to transients against those of the high-fidelity simulation. An additional approach was performed using a data-driven model to correct the low-fidelity simulation. In comparison, the differentiable hybrid model showed significant improvements in transient prediction, effectively addressing the limitations of the low-fidelity simulations. The results highlighted the robustness of the differentiable hybrid model in both training approaches. It delivered simulations that were at least 3.8 times faster than high-fidelity models. In the time-step-wise approach, it achieved at least a 39% improvement in accuracy. In the sequence-wise approach, it showed at least an 81% accuracy improvement over the full transient. This approach offers a promising path for improving computational efficiency without compromising accuracy in nuclear reactor simulations, making it suitable for real-time digital twin applications.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of message passing-based graph convolutional networks for classifying cancer pathology reports

Abstract Background Applying graph convolutional networks (GCN) to the classification of free-form natural language texts leveraged by graph-of-words features (TextGCN) was studied and confirmed to be an effective means of describing complex natural language texts. However, the text classification models based on the TextGCN possess weaknesses in terms of memory consumption and model dissemination and distribution. In this paper, we present a fast message passing network (FastMPN), implementing a GCN with message passing architecture that provides versatility and flexibility by allowing trainable node embedding and edge weights, helping the GCN model find the better solution. We applied the FastMPN model to the task of clinical information extraction from cancer pathology reports, extracting the following six properties: main site, subsite, laterality, histology, behavior, and grade. Results We evaluated the clinical task performance of the FastMPN models in terms of micro- and macro-averaged F1 scores. A comparison was performed with the multi-task convolutional neural network (MT-CNN) model. Results show that the FastMPN model is equivalent to or better than the MT-CNN. Conclusions Our implementation revealed that our FastMPN model, which is based on the PyTorch platform, can train a large corpus (667,290 training samples) with 202,373 unique words in less than 3 minutes per epoch using one NVIDIA V100 hardware accelerator. Our experiments demonstrated that using this implementation, the clinical task performance scores of information extraction related to tumors from cancer pathology reports were highly competitive.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development and Test of High Temperature Surface Acoustic Wave Gas Sensors

The demand for sensors in hostile environments, such as power plant environments, aerospace environments, oil and gas extraction, and high-temperature metallurgy environments, has risen over the past decades in a continuous attempt to increase process control, improve energy and process efficiency in production, reduce operational and maintenance costs, increase safety, and perform condition-based maintenance in equipment and structures operating in high-temperature harsh-environment conditions. The increased reliability, improved performance, and development of new sensors and networks with a multitude of components, especially wireless networks, are the target for operation in harsh environments. Gas sensors, in particular H2 sensors, operating above 200 C are required in the instrumentation, process control and general safety of a number of industries including coal, natural gas, and nuclear power generation facilities, the aerospace and automotive industries, metallurgical production and defense-related applications. The surface acoustic wave (SAW) platform is a particularly promising option for high-temperature, harsh-environment gas sensing applications since the platform exhibits advantages, such as battery-free and wireless operation, small size, possibility for scale production using well-developed technologies from the semiconductor industry, and low cost of installation and operation. In this work, one-port SAW resonators (SAWRs) operating along five different orientations on a commercially available langasite (LGS) wafer employing Pt-Al2O3 electrodes and reflectors were designed, fabricated, and used as high-temperature H2 sensors. Two of the selected orientations were predicted and confirmed to have temperature-compensated operation above 150 C. A gas sensor test setup was developed, capable of gas cycling between N2, O2 and N2/H2 mixtures under extended high-temperature periods (up to 650 C for over 20 hours). Thin film Pt-Al2O3 was used as the electrode material for the transducers and reflectors capable of high-temperature operation, and also as H2 sensing film. In addition, yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) thin films with Pt decoration were tested as sensing films aimed to enhance the SAWR sensor response to H2. The SAW devices were monitored in excess of 1700 hours in real-time during gas cycling sequences up to 600 C, leading to the following findings: i) the Pt-Al2O3 electrodes performed better for H2 sensing than the Pt-decorated YSZ sensing film, showing as much as 50% higher frequency variation response in the 200 C to 400 C range; ii) different crystallographic orientations operating on the same LGS wafer experienced different responses to H2 exposures up to 500 C; iii) the surface oxidation state of the SAWR sensors was shown to have an important impact on subsequent H2 exposure responses. In addition, a sensor system employing two LGS SAWRs, aligned along two different orientations, has been developed to simultaneously determine H2 presence and temperature. Finally, wireless interrogation of a SAWR sensor was successful within the gas cycling test fixture, and successful wireless H2 detection was achieved above 400 C.

Ayes Moncada, Armando↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing 2‐Pyrone Synthase Efficiency by High‐Throughput Mass‐Spectrometric Quantification and In Vitro/In Vivo Catalytic Performance Correlation

Abstract Engineering efficient biocatalysts is essential for metabolic engineering to produce valuable bioproducts from renewable resources. However, due to the complexity of cellular metabolic networks, it is challenging to translate success in vitro into high performance in cells. To meet such a challenge, an accurate and efficient quantification method is necessary to screen a large set of mutants from complex cell culture and a careful correlation between the catalysis parameters in vitro and performance in cells is required. In this study, we employed a mass‐spectrometry based high‐throughput quantitative method to screen new mutants of 2‐pyrone synthase (2PS) for triacetic acid lactone (TAL) biosynthesis through directed evolution in E. coli . From the process, we discovered two mutants with the highest improvement (46 fold) in titer and the fastest k cat (44 fold) over the wild type 2PS, respectively, among those reported in the literature. A careful examination of the correlation between intracellular substrate concentration, Michaelis‐Menten parameters and TAL titer for these two mutants reveals that a fast reaction rate under limiting intracellular substrate concentrations is important for in‐cell biocatalysis. Such properties can be tuned by protein engineering and synthetic biology to adopt these engineered proteins for the maximum activities in different intracellular environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Image processing pipeline for AI-driven nanoparticle megalibrary characterization

Recent innovations have made it possible to produce megalibraries, millions of structurally and compositionally distinct nanoparticles on a chip. These megalibraries yield vast volumes of data that are impossible to analyze manually, necessitating the development of automated tools. In previous work, we created a binary classification machine learning model to select quality nanoparticle images for downstream analysis. In this work, we show that adding a custom image processing step before training can produce significantly higher-performing models in a fraction of the time and make them more robust to different image noise levels and microscope acquisition settings. The image processing pipeline proposed here effectively cleans raw nanoparticle images, enhances key features, and allows us to use much lower resolution images and simpler neural network model architectures. These features result in higher performance and significant cost savings. Experiments demonstrate superior performance relative to baseline, including an 18.2% improvement in recall and a 13.1% increase in accuracy. Given the high cost of downstream analysis, it is critical to minimize false positives, and our best-performing model reaches a precision of 95.9% and a weighted F-score of 95.1% on an unseen test set. Additionally, model training time is reduced from hours to less than a minute. We also show that, using this custom image processing pipeline, model performance is significantly improved at lower pixel resolutions compared to downsizing alone. We expect that adopting this pipeline for AI-driven automated nanoparticle characterization will allow researchers to rapidly and accurately analyze much greater volumes of data, thereby accelerating materials discovery.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics

Predicted growth in world population will put unparalleled stress on the need for sustainable energy and global food production, as well as increase the likelihood of future pandemics. In this work, we identify high-resolution environmental zones in the context of a changing climate and predict longitudinal processes relevant to these challenges. We do this using exhaustive vector comparison methods that measure the climatic similarity between all locations on earth at high geospatial resolution relative to global-scale analyses. The results are captured as networks, in which edges between geolocations are defined if their historical climate similarities exceed a threshold. We apply Markov clustering and our novel Correlation of Correlations method to the resulting climatic networks, which provides unprecedented agglomerative and longitudinal views of climatic relationships across the globe. The methods performed here resulted in the fastest (9.37x10 18 operations/sec) and one of the largest (168.7x10 21 operations) scientific computations ever performed, with more than 100 quadrillion edges considered for a single climatic network. Our climatic analysis reveals areas of the world experiencing rapid environmental changes, which can have important implications for global carbon fluxes and zoonotic spillover events. Correlation and network analyses of this kind are widely applicable across computational and predictive biology domains, including systems biology, ecology, carbon cycles, biogeochemistry, and zoonosis research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ultra-Fast Non-Volatile Resistive Switching Devices with Over 512 Distinct and Stable Levels for Memory and Neuromorphic Computing

Low-current multilevel programmability with inherent non-volatility and high stability of resistance states is required for both multi-bit memory storage and deep learning accelerators but is difficult to achieve. Here, in a resistive switching system, this work realizes >512 (>9 bits) distinct non-volatile conductance levels with stable retention for each state with current levels down to the nanoampere range, highly promising for potential integration with small processing nodes with ultra-low power consumption requirements. This is achieved by demonstrating a new thin film design concept that encompasses three key features: an ultra-thin epitaxial oxygen ionic switching layer that provides a tunable energy barrier at the bottom electrode, an overcoat amorphous layer that acts as an ion migration barrier for stable state retention, and a partial conductive filament as a localized electronic transport channel to the epitaxial switching layer. A large dynamic resistance range of up to seven orders of magnitude is achieved with reset-free transitions among intermediate states, and programmability is demonstrated with ultra-fast (20 ns) pulses. Artificial neural network (ANN) simulations, based on the experimental performance and its non-idealities, demonstrate close-to-ideal inference accuracies for various Modified National Institute of Standards and Technology (MNIST) data sets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗