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At least 811 records · Page 45

Topical: Reverse Translation Strategies to Support Cognitive and Behavioral Risk Characterization

A coordinated suite of measurements to assess humans and animals needs to be established to support the translation and harmonization of animal research data to the astronaut corps due to the necessity of using animal subjects for radiation testing. The identification of POLs and PELs for spaceflight stressors (i.e. space radiation, altered gravity, isolation and confinement, sleep disruption) individually and combined will depend on defining scaling factors or transfer functions that can be used to relate human and animal outcomes.

Gregory Nelson↗

Case Study of Meteoroid Fluence on a Mars Sample Return Mission

The Mars Sample Return Campaign must satisfy a Back Planetary Protection requirement that limits the risk of biological contamination of the Earth by Martian microbes. The Earth Re-turn Orbiter (ERO), being developed by the European Space Agency (ESA), will carry a Capture, Containment and Return System (CCRS), which is being developed by NASA to retrieve orbiting samples (OS) from Mars orbit, surround them with two containment layers to create a Contained OS (COS), and transfer the COS to the Earth Entry System (EES), which will be re-leased by ERO to carry the samples through entry, descent and landing at the Utah Test and Training Range. Micrometeoroid impact damage to the Thermal Protection System (TPS) of the EES, which may occur at any time in the ERO mission, is recognized as a potential risk driver for loss of sample containment that needs to be rigorously assessed. A Micrometeoroid Protection System (MMPS) will be implemented to limit that risk. The MMPS consists of a shield covering the TPS called the Micrometeoroid Garage (MMG) and a system of cameras to inspect the TPS. An extensive study was performed by the CCRS Project in collaboration with the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC)to assess the probability of damage to the MMG and TPS by meteoroids over the entire ERO mission. This included the computation of the meteoroid fluence on the MMG and directly on the TPS after EES separation, and assessment of damage to the MMG and TPS via hypervelocity impact tests, hydrocode simulations, and empirical damage prediction and ballistic limit equations (BLEs). The focus of this paper is the meteoroid fluence on the MMG.

Micrometeoroid↗

Compound Effects of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Issues in the Middle East

The Middle East is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to climate change, which has exacerbated environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region. Here we analyze the latest climate model projections of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5,to detect potential future changes in this region. A baseline period (1981-2010) is compared with the middle(2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21stcentury. The results, representing the worst-case scenario, identify the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters as the hotspot of future compounding effects of climate change in the Middle East. Those effects result from the coincidence of elevated temperature, reduced precipitation, and enhanced interannual variability of precipitation. The hotspot overlays the location of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) irrigation initiative. In this climate context, risks to GAP viability and downstream water security, and associated potential for water-related conflicts and migration are considerable and demand a reconsideration of the risk-benefit assessment of GAP. This need has become more urgent after the recent widespread and deadly climate-related conflicts and wildfires in summer 2021 across the Middle East that further underlined vulnerability of the region to climate extremes.

Tigris-Euphrates headwater↗

Cost and Throughput Analysis for the NASA Ames Arc Jet Modernization Program

NASA Ames Center is currently evaluating alternatives to modernize the Arc Jet Complex, a critical part of testing for NASA’s planetary missions. NASA’s Arc Jet Complex facilities “are used to simulate the aerothermodynamic heating that a spacecraft endures throughout hypersonic atmospheric entry, and to test candidate thermal protection system (TPS) materials and systems. “Because planetary mission schedules often have tight windows due to planetary alignment constraints, a small increase in schedule could result in a two-year delay. Such a delay could increase the cost of a $1billionmissionbyhundreds of millions of dollars due to project personnel pay and clean room storage. To avoid these costs, the authors support NASA Ames in evaluating return on investment (ROI) and effectiveness of alternatives for modernizing the complex. The first input into the ROI is the deconstruction and construction cost estimates, which are developed using independent research on highly specialized subsystems, vendor quotes, and Unified Facilities Criteria (UFC), depending on the facility and work package. One of the measures of effectiveness is throughput analysis of the test bays, as a main goal of the modernization is to increase the number of possible test runs per year. This analysis is conducted via a probabilistic simulation and accounts for a variety of stochastic factors that influence the sequence of test runs, such as the facility availability; test complexity; the need to pause to assess test results; test failure; and the possibility of a system failure. The methodologies for both these analyses are discussed, along with the challenges presented due to the unique nature of the highly specialized test equipment.

Jennifer Scheel↗

Grand Valley Ecological Forecasting : Assessing Trends in Pinyon-Juniper Habitat Relative to Drought, Beetle Infestation, Wildland Fires, and Treatment to Plan Future Management Strategies

Drought, beetle infestation, and more frequent wildfires are changing the composition and distribution of the pinyon-juniper woodland and sagebrush ecosystems of the Grand Valley in western Colorado. Land managers must consider short- and long-term goals for restoration as well as budgetary and personnel limitations after such disturbances. Satellite remote sensing can provide long-term and continuous vegetation monitoring to assess where restoration is needed most and where treatment practices are most likely to succeed. Harnessing Earth observation data, our team set out to observe trends in disturbances and the distribution of pinyon-juniper woodlands and sagebrush communities of National Park Service (NPS) and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands within the Grand Valley. We used imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites, and Landsat sensors to map landcover change within these ecosystems from 1984-2021. Additionally, we analyzed disturbed areas and treatment sites to understand their effect on long-term vegetation health and recovery. Results showed that pinyon-juniper woodland has expanded in extent more than other landcover types, indicating woody encroachment into sagebrush ecosystems. We also found that wildfire disturbances had lasting impacts up to 20 years post-disturbance. Pre-fire treatment practices showed mixed results regarding their effectiveness at stopping fires and promoting post-fire recovery. These results will provide context to public land managers in the Grand Valley when developing management plans, ecological monitoring locations, and implementing treatment practices for future disturbances.

Garrett Powers↗

Trends in sulfur dioxide over the Indian subcontinent during 2003–2019

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) and its oxidation products profoundly impact the air quality and climate. In recent decades, contrasting SO2 trends have been observed over different regions of the globe due to urbanization, energy generation and control measures. In this study, we have investigated the SO2 trends over the rapidly developing Indian subcontinent using model reanalysis, satellite data, and emission inventories during 2003–2019 period. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis shows rapid SO2 growth up to 0.4 ppbv/yr during 2003–2009, particularly significant over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and eastern India. However, the growth becomes slower after 2010 and is followed by a stabilization or slight reduction. The CAMS results agree with the satellite-based observations, however, the model underestimates enhancements over eastern India. The analysis of inventory datasets also suggests slower growths in SO2 emissions and coal-fired electricity generation in recent years. Besides the changes in regional emissions, the enhancements in water vapor and OH radical coinciding with SO2 stabilization indicate strengthening of the sink processes. Model simulation (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2―MERRA-2) with constant emissions shows reduction in SO2 which confirms the stronger chemical losses. Overall, the SO2 trends over the Indian subcontinent are found to be a manifestation of the combined effects of the regional emission change and chemistry. Our findings highlight the need for studies to assess the impacts of changing SO2 trends in India on the regional and global climate.

Lakhima Chutia↗

Case Study of Meteoroid Fluence on a Mars Sample Return Mission

The Mars Sample Return Campaign must satisfy a Back Planetary Protection requirement that limits the risk of biological contamination of the Earth by Martian microbes. The Earth Re-turn Orbiter (ERO), being developed by the European Space Agency (ESA), will carry a Capture, Containment and Return System (CCRS), which is being developed by NASA to retrieve orbiting samples (OS) from Mars orbit, surround them with two containment layers to create a Contained OS (COS), and transfer the COS to the Earth Entry System (EES), which will be re-leased by ERO to carry the samples through entry, descent and landing at the Utah Test and Training Range. Micrometeoroid impact damage to the Thermal Protection System (TPS) of the EES, which may occur at any time in the ERO mission, is recognized as a potential risk driver for loss of sample containment that needs to be rigorously assessed. A Micrometeoroid Protection System (MMPS) will be implemented to limit that risk. The MMPS consists of a shield covering the TPS called the Micrometeoroid Garage (MMG) and a system of cameras to inspect the TPS. An extensive study was performed by the CCRS Project in collaboration with the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC)to assess the probability of damage to the MMG and TPS by meteoroids over the entire ERO mission. This included the computation of the meteoroid fluence on the MMG and directly on the TPS after EES separation, and assessment of damage to the MMG and TPS via hypervelocity impact tests, hydrocode simulations, and empirical damage prediction and ballistic limit equations (BLEs). The focus of this paper is the meteoroid fluence on the MMG.

micrometeoroid↗

Development of a Sensorimotor Ground Analog from Astronaut Postflight Experience

Exploration class missions including Artemis, Gateway, and beyond will require a new level of autonomy around periods of gravitational transition, where sensorimotor disturbances are great. Because of this, there is a need to define sensorimotor assessment thresholds that indicate when performance in operational tasks might be impacted or unsafe. To define these thresholds, a Sensorimotor Adaptation Analog (SAA) was proposed that could induce varying levels of sensorimotor disorientation through combined vestibular, visual, and proprioceptive disruptions. The purpose of this study was to gather subjective feedback on the SAA from previously flown astronauts that would mimic their post-flight experience and functional performance immediately after landing (R+0-4hrs; high level) and post-landing (R+24-48hrs; low level). The SAA consisted of galvanic vestibular stimulation (GVS), visual disorientation goggles, and a weighted suit to alter proprioceptive feedback and replicate subjective heaviness. A random sum-of-sines profile between 0-1Hz was used for the GVS with peak amplitudes ranging from 1-4mA. The GVS was applied first at the low (2mA) and high (3mA) levels, followed by the weighted suit alone, then combined with the GVS at the low (20% body weight) and high levels (40% body weight). Last, the disorientation goggles were applied alongside both the GVS and weighted suit at the low (0.07-0.10+ blood alcohol content (BAC)) and high (0.12-0.15+ BAC) levels. Each element of the SAA could be increased or decreased depending on crew feedback to find the disorientation levels that best matched their experience. Five USOS astronauts (1 male, 4 female) who had previously flown (average time since flight: 377 days) participated. Crewmembers reported that GVS alone replicated ~80-90% of their post-flight performance with the weighted suit fine-tuning the experience to replicate an additional 5-10% of their experience. Crewmembers did not believe the disorientation goggles represented either the visual disruptions or illusory sensations that they experienced, nor did they impact performance in post-flight tasks similarly. The final SAA, resulting from crewmember feedback, includes the GVS at the levels described above and the weighted suit at 15% and 30% body weight. The disorientation goggles were removed from SAA. These results provided a more realistic SAA that can be used to define the sensorimotor assessment thresholds through ground subjects and potentially expanded for use in countermeasure testing and as a pre-flight training tool.

S. C. Moudy↗

Kentucky Disasters: Multi-Hazard Approach to Mapping Flood Susceptibility and Vulnerability in Kentucky

Flooding is the most common and costly natural disaster in Kentucky, with major flood events in 2022 and 2023 highlighting the need for flood risk assessment. In partnership with the National Weather Service Jackson and Paducah Forecast Offices and the Kentucky Climate Center, we mapped flood risk in Kentucky using a multi-hazard approach that considered two dimensions of risk: flood susceptibility based on a weighted combination of seven physical factors and flood vulnerability based on 13 socioeconomic and infrastructure factors. We additionally analyzed NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations of surface soil moisture to explore the utility of SMAP observations for future analysis of flood risk. By analyzing flood susceptibility, we found that with equal rainfall, western Kentucky generally displays a higher propensity to flood than eastern Kentucky. In contrast, our flood vulnerability analysis indicated that more vulnerable areas were generally concentrated in the eastern part of the state. Through a combined perspective, our flood risk analysis identified much of the state as having moderate degrees of flood susceptibility and vulnerability. Our parallel analysis of antecedent soil moisture found that SMAP soil moisture levels were variable in the months leading up to each flood event but were drier than normal in the month prior to the 2023 event, as shown by negative soil moisture anomalies. These results were limited by challenges with weighting input parameters and a lack of validation but overall demonstrate the feasibility of using GIS and Earth observations for mapping flood risk and soil moisture.

analytic hierarchy process↗

Protein Molecular Dynamics Simulations with Approximate QM: What Can We Learn?

Classical force fields are essential for computer simulations of proteins and are typically parameterized to reproduce secondary and tertiary structure of isolated proteins. However, while protein-protein interactions are ubiquitous in nature, they are not considered in parameterization efforts and are far less understood than isolated proteins. A better characterization of intermolecular interactions is widely recognized as a key to revolutionizing drug and therapeutic developments with high-throughput computational screening. Urgently needed is a critical assessment of the performance of modern protein force fields against first-principles electronic structure methods and experiments. In a daring step toward this goal, we here describe a comparison of peptide folding dynamics as predicted by a molecular mechanics force field on the one hand and by an approximate electronic structure quantum mechanical (QM) method based on density-functional tight-binding (DFTB) on the other. We further compare the dynamics from straightforward DFTB simulations with a near-linear scaling version of DFTB for massively parallel computation based on the fragment molecular orbital (FMO-DFTB) method. We illustrate differences between the phenomenology of the folding dynamics from these three methods for a small model peptide, as well as charge polarization and dynamic fluctuations, point out possible correlations and implications for force field developers, and discuss the lessons learned that might become applicable to future predictive high-throughput computer screening for personalized neoantigen cancer therapy.

Irle, Stephan↗

MSR Safety Adequacy Demonstration US Contributions Towards a Common Goal

Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are currently under development worldwide. The US government has been sponsoring development of MSR safety adequacy evaluation information and tools. The US is a member of the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) MSR provisional System Steering Committee (pSSC). MSR pSSC collaboration is limited to exchange of open-fundamental information. Information employed to assess reactor safety adequacy needs to remain open to external scrutiny. US entities continue to measure fuel salt thermophysical and thermochemical properties, which have now been released into an open database. Non-US entities also continue to measure and openly publish fuel salt thermophysical and thermochemical properties. US entities continue to perform MSR accident progression experiments and simulations, the results of which are being reported in the open, scientific literature. The demonstrations have not yet been at sufficient scale to necessitate international collaboration.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Challenges and Strategies for Testing Automation Practices at Sandia National Laboratories

Sandia National Laboratories is a premier United States national security laboratory which develops science-based technologies in areas such as nuclear deterrence, energy production, and climate change. Computing plays a key role in its diverse missions, and within that environment, Research Software Engineers (RSEs) and other scientific software developers utilize testing automation to ensure quality and maintainability of their work. We conducted a Participatory Action Research study to explore the challenges and strategies for testing automation through the lens of academic literature. Through the experiences collected and comparison with open literature, we identify these challenges in testing automation and then present strategies for mitigation grounded in evidence-based practice and experience reports that other, similar institutions can assess for their automation needs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Bottom-Up Cost Estimation Tool for Nuclear Microreactors

The rising interest in nuclear microreactors has highlighted the need for comprehensive technoeconomic assessments. However, the scarcity of publicly available designs and cost data has posed significant challenges. To address this issue, the Microreactor Optimization Using Simulation and Economics (MOUSE) tool is developed. MOUSE is a tool that integrates nuclear microreactor design with reactor economics. The design calculations encompass core simulations using the OpenMC Monte Carlo Particle Transport Code [romano2015], along with simplified balance of plant calculations. On the economic side, MOUSE provides detailed bottom-up cost estimates, calculating both the total capital cost and the levelized cost of energy for first-of-a-kind and nth-of-a-kind microreactors. The cost estimation correlations are developed using data from the MARVEL project and additional literature sources. MOUSE has released as an open-source tool on GitHub (MOUSE Tool). By combining design calculations with cost equations, MOUSE enables users to evaluate the impact of various technological consideration, advanced moderators, design changes, material/fuel changes, and geometry modifications—as well as economic parameters like interest rates and construction duration. This comprehensive framework can guide stakeholders towards technological solutions that enhance microreactor competitiveness. Additionally, powered by the WATTS toolkit [romano2022], MOUSE supports optimization studies, parametric analyses, and uncertainty calculations/propagation. Currently, preconceptual designs of three microreactor types are included in MOUSE: a liquid metal thermal microreactor (LTMR), gas cooled TRISO-fueled microreactor (GCMR) and heat-pipe TRISO fueled microreactor (HPMR). To showcase its ability, MOUSE was used to conduct detailed bottom-up cost estimates for the first of a kind (FOAK) and Nth of a kind (NOAK) of the following microreactors • A 20MWt LTMR that is built on the ongoing MARVEL demonstration at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) • A 15 MWt GCMR that was designed to be more representative of the typical commercial microreactor • A 7 MWt HPMR that was built on previous work (Choi 2024) The The reader should note that these three designs and corresponding cost estimates are examples to demonstrate the MOUSE capability. The designs are pre-conceptual, the reactor designs were not optimized, and the cost estimates were developed with incomplete information. Additionally, stakeholders might be interested in a variety of designs that may differ from the examples provided in this report. The MOUSE tool can also be used to study how design choices affect economics. To demonstrate its capability, MOUSE was used conduct parametric studies such as examining the economic impact of the reflector's material and thickness, the moderator's booster material and dimensions, fuel composition and enrichment, core size, and power level. Several insights were gained from these parametric studies.

Hanna, Botros↗

AI Benchmark Democratization and Carpentry

Benchmarks are a cornerstone of modern machine learning, enabling reproducibility, comparison, and scientific progress. However, AI benchmarks are increasingly complex, requiring dynamic, AI-focused workflows. Rapid evolution in model architectures, scale, datasets, and deployment contexts makes evaluation a moving target. Large language models often memorize static benchmarks, causing a gap between benchmark results and real-world performance. Beyond traditional static benchmarks, continuous adaptive benchmarking frameworks are needed to align scientific assessment with deployment risks. This calls for skills and education in AI Benchmark Carpentry. From our experience with MLCommons, educational initiatives, and programs like the DOE's Trillion Parameter Consortium, key barriers include high resource demands, limited access to specialized hardware, lack of benchmark design expertise, and uncertainty in relating results to application domains. Current benchmarks often emphasize peak performance on top-tier hardware, offering limited guidance for diverse, real-world scenarios. Benchmarking must become dynamic, incorporating evolving models, updated data, and heterogeneous platforms while maintaining transparency, reproducibility, and interpretability. Democratization requires both technical innovation and systematic education across levels, building sustained expertise in benchmark design and use. Benchmarks should support application-relevant comparisons, enabling informed, context-sensitive decisions. Dynamic, inclusive benchmarking will ensure evaluation keeps pace with AI evolution and supports responsible, reproducible, and accessible AI deployment. Community efforts can provide a foundation for AI Benchmark Carpentry.

von Laszewski, Gregor [Virginia U.]↗

Technology assessment and the Congress

The legislative branch is considered as the major focus for technology assessment, and the functions of the Congressional Research Service in supplying Congressmen with scientific and technological development is outlined, and the need for Congress to control, assess, and integrate the various and conflicting elements for the benefit of both technology and society is stressed. The organization of the Science Policy Research Division is mentioned, and its duties in gathering facts for the increased understanding by the members of Congress are indicated. Technology assessment aspects associated with congressional committees and hearings, adequacy of advice, trends in engineering education, and the public interest are also discussed.

Carpenter, R. A.↗

Cluster Dynamics Modeling Needs for the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Program

This milestone report aims to identify and assess the cluster dynamics (CD) modeling requirements within the Department of Energy's Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program and to communicate these needs to the DOE-NE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. The goal is to ensure NEAMS is well-informed about the CD modeling requirements to support AMMT's mission of accelerating the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced structural materials and manufacturing for nuclear energy applications. CD modeling is an essential tool for predicting the degradation of structural materials under irradiation, which is a key component of AMMT's accelerated qualification process. The AMMT program focuses on both additively manufactured and wrought structural alloys, such as laser powder-bed fusion 316H austenitic stainless steel, alloy 709, Haynes 244, and alloy 617. These materials require a generalized CD modeling framework to facilitate rapid model development and computational simulation. A flexible, generalized CD software, similar to the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element framework, would enable modeling of various cluster types, including defect clusters, defect-solute clusters, and multicomponent clusters, incorporating thermodynamics and kinetics parameters. Radiation effects, microstructural feature evolution, and multi-dimensional modeling are critical considerations for the CD model. The usability of the CD code should allow for easy modification and coupling with MOOSE-based simulations. Additionally, the software should adhere to Nuclear Quality Assurance-1 standards, include a testing suite for verification and validation, and be version-controlled within a national laboratory-managed Git repository. Benchmark problems are needed to assess code predictions and performance.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluating Flood Forecasting System Performance in Cambodia

Every year, Cambodia experiences flooding as a result of monsoon rains and typhoons. Flood forecasting systems are designed to enable people to mitigate economic and social impacts from these events. However, in order for forecasts to be used effectively, an assessment of their accuracy is needed. This study demonstrates the performance of regional and global flood forecasting systems over the 2019 flood season. To do this, we assess the flood forecast accuracy at different forecast lead times and gauge locations in Cambodia. We then compare the flood forecast performance to satellite-based flood maps produced by the Hydrological Remote Sensing Analysis of Floods (HYDRAFloods) tool currently being co-developed by SERVIR-Mekong in collaboration with the Myanmar Department of Disaster Management. This assessment of the flood forecasting systems’ performance and comparison to flood extents helps (1) provide valuable information to forecasters and disaster managers as they make improvements to their models, and (2) provides support to forecast users as they evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of different systems for taking action.

Nauman, Claire↗

Near Earth Asteroid Characteristics for Asteroid Threat Assessment

Information about the physical characteristics of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) is needed to model behavior during atmospheric entry, to assess the risk of an impact, and to model possible mitigation techniques. The intrinsic properties of interest to entry and mitigation modelers, however, rarely are directly measureable. Instead we measure other properties and infer the intrinsic physical properties, so determining the complete set of characteristics of interest is far from straightforward. In addition, for the majority of NEAs, only the basic measurements exist so often properties must be inferred from statistics of the population of more completely characterized objects. We will provide an assessment of the current state of knowledge about the physical characteristics of importance to asteroid threat assessment. In addition, an ongoing effort to collate NEA characteristics into a readily accessible database for use by the planetary defense community will be discussed.

Atmospheric↗