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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Depth Modeling and Simulation Analysis of Artemis Missions Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. During an extended simulation modeling phase, IMPACT generated analytical results for medical risks, and the medical resources and capabilities to address those risks, for every segment of every crewed Artemis mission. This presentation will highlight the reliability, consistency and validity of IMPACT’s computational modeling techniques and will showcase the library of analytical outcomes generated for the Artemis missions. OVERVIEW During the early stages of IMPACT’s design, architecture and technical requirements collection, “scenarios” (use cases) - achievement goals required for acceptance testing, were identified by stakeholders. IMPACT successfully completed the scenario testing requirements and undertook an extensive operational run phase utilizing a wide range of input combinations with a goal of delivering a cohesive, trustworthy, reliable, vast, and diverse body of evidence. The intent of these modeling runs was to validate consistency in output, ensure solidity of executable operations and to streamline processes by identifying areas requiring efficiency improvements. Using the many missions of Artemis, IMPACT ran variations of operational runs to assess the output for acceptable, as well as unusual characteristics. This rigorous long-term “shakedown” analysis was implemented to help build a collective body of evidence to aid in securing a high level of confidence, reliability, and validity in the output, whether from the applicational components of IMPACT, or the entirety of the operational process. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION This presentation will discuss the various categories of input criteria; the comparisons in the application of these input criteria to various Artemis missions; the preparation and collection of the body of evidence, and reliability of the computational modeling techniques. This paper serves as an initial analytical overview of IMPACT’s probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk outputs covering Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

Crew Composition↗
DOE OSTI2012

An Extensible Reduced Order Model Builder for Simulation and Modeling

REVEAL is a software framework for building reduced order models (surrogate models) for high fidelity complex scientific simulations. REVEAL is designed to do reduced order modeling and sensitivity analysis for scientific simulations. REVEAL incorporates a range of sampling and regression methods. It provides complete user environment and is adaptable to new simulators, runs jobs on any computing platform of choice, automatically post processes simulation results and provides a range of data analysis tools. The software is generic and can easily be extended to incorporate new methods, simulators.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1975

Study report on combining diagnostic and therapeutic considerations with subsystem and whole-body simulation

Current applications of simulation models for clinical research described included tilt model simulation of orthostatic intolerance with hemorrhage, and modeling long term circulatory circulation. Current capabilities include: (1) simulation of analogous pathological states and effects of abnormal environmental stressors by the manipulation of system variables and changing inputs in various sequences; (2) simulation of time courses of responses of controlled variables by the altered inputs and their relationships; (3) simulation of physiological responses of treatment such as isotonic saline transfusion; (4) simulation of the effectiveness of a treatment as well as the effects of complication superimposed on an existing pathological state; and (5) comparison of the effectiveness of various treatments/countermeasures for a given pathological state. The feasibility of applying simulation models to diagnostic and therapeutic research problems is assessed.

Furukawa, S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Higher than expected N 2 O emissions from soybean crops in the Pampas Region of Argentina: Estimates from DayCent simulations and field measurements

In developing countries, agriculture generally represents a large fraction of GHG emissions reported in National Inventories, and emissions are typically estimated using Tier 1 IPCC guidelines. However, field data and locally adapted simulation models can improve the accuracy of IPCC estimations. In this report we aimed to quantify anthropogenic N2O emissions from croplands of Argentina through field measurements, model simulations and IPCC guidelines. Here we measured N 2 O emissions and their controlling factors in 62 plots of the Pampas Region with corn, soybean and wheat/soybean crops and in unmanaged grasslands. We accounted for gross emissions from crops and background emissions from unmanaged grasslands to calculate net anthropogenic emissions from crops as the difference between them. We calibrated and evaluated the DayCent model and then simulated different weather and management scenarios. Finally, we applied IPCC guidelines to estimate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions at the same plots. The DayCent model accurately simulated annual N 2 O emission for all crops as compared to measured data (RMSE = 1.4 g N ha -1 day -1 ). Measured and simulated emissions in soybean crops were higher than in corn and wheat/soybean crops. Gross N 2 O emissions ranged from 1.4 to 5.1 kg N ha -1 yr -1 for current environmental (soil and weather) and management (crops and fertilizer doses) conditions. Background emissions ranged between 1.1 and 1.3 kg N ha -1 yr -1 , and therefore net anthropogenic emissions ranged from 0.3 to 4.0 kg N ha-1 yr -1 . IPCC Tier 1 emission factors underestimated N2O releases from soybean, that were on average 4.87 times greater when estimated with DayCent and observations (0.53 vs 2.47 and 2.69 kg N ha -1 yr -1 , respectively). On the contrary, IPCC estimates for corn and wheat/soybean crops were similar to modeled and measured values. Our results suggest that N 2 O emissions from the vast 15 million ha of soybean croplands in the Pampas Region may be substantially underestimated.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

REVEAL: An Extensible Reduced Order Model Builder for Simulation and Modeling

Many science domains need to build computationally efficient and accurate representations of high fidelity, computationally expensive simulations. These computationally efficient versions are known as reduced-order models. This paper presents the design and implementation of a novel reduced-order model (ROM) builder, the REVEAL toolset. This toolset generates ROMs based on science- and engineering-domain specific simulations executed on high performance computing (HPC) platforms. The toolset encompasses a range of sampling and regression methods that can be used to generate a ROM, automatically quantifies the ROM accuracy, and provides support for an iterative approach to improve ROM accuracy. REVEAL is designed to be extensible in order to utilize the core functionality with any simulator that has published input and output formats. It also defines programmatic interfaces to include new sampling and regression techniques so that users can ‘mix and match’ mathematical techniques to best suit the characteristics of their model. In this paper, we describe the architecture of REVEAL and demonstrate its usage with a computational fluid dynamics model used in carbon capture.

Surrogate model, reduced order model, sensitivity ↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Multi-Model Trajectory Simulation Estimators using Model Selection and Tuning

Multi-model Monte Carlo methods have been demonstrated to be an efficient and accurate alternative to standard Monte Carlo (MC) in the model-based propagation of uncertainty in entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications. These multi-model MC methods fuse predictions from low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity EDL model of interest to produce unbiased statistics with a fraction of the computational cost. The accuracy and efficiency of the multi-model MC methods are dependent upon the magnitude of correlations of the low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity model, but also upon the correlation amongst the low-fidelity models, and their relative computational cost. Because of this layer of complexity, the question of how to optimally select the set of low-fidelity models has remained open. In this work, methods for optimal model construction and tuning are investigated as a means to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. Specifically, the focus is on the inclusion of low-fidelity model tuning within the sample allocation optimization that accompanies multi-model MC methods. Preliminary results indicate that low-fidelity model tuning can significantly improve efficiency and precision of trajectory simulations and provide an increased edge to multi-model MC methods when compared to standard MC. The challenges and potential benefits to exploring a fully iterative and comprehensive optimization strategy in future work are highlighted.

uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Multi-Model Trajectory Simulation Estimators using Model Selection and Tuning

Multi-model Monte Carlo methods have been demonstrated to be an efficient and accurate alternative to standard Monte Carlo (MC) in the model-based propagation of uncertainty in entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications. These multi-model MC methods fuse predictions from low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity EDL model of interest to produce unbiased statistics with a fraction of the computational cost. The accuracy and efficiency of the multi-model MC methods are dependent upon the magnitude of correlations of the low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity model, but also upon the correlation among the low-fidelity models, and their relative computational cost. Because of this layer of complexity, the question of how to optimally select the set of low-fidelity models has remained open. In this work, methods for optimal model construction and tuning are investigated as a means to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. Specifically, the focus is on the inclusion of low-fidelity model tuning within the sample allocation optimization that accompanies multi-model MC methods. Preliminary results indicate that low-fidelity model tuning can significantly improve efficiency and precision of trajectory simulations and provide an increased edge to multi-model MC methods when compared to standard MC. The challenges and potential benefits to exploring a fully iterative and comprehensive optimization strategy in future work are highlighted.

uncertainty quantification↗
DOE OSTI2025

Classical Benchmarks for Variational Quantum Eigensolver Simulations of the Hubbard Model

Simulating the Hubbard model is of great interest to a wide range of applications within condensed matter physics, however its solution on classical computers remains challenging in dimensions larger than one. The relative simplicity of this model, embodied by the sparseness of the Hamiltonian matrix, allows for its efficient implementation on quantum computers, and for its approximate solution using variational algorithms such as the variational quantum eigensolver. While these algorithms have been shown to reproduce the qualitative features of the Hubbard model, their quantitative accuracy in terms of producing true ground state energies and other properties, and the dependence of this accuracy on the system size and interaction strength, the choice of variational ansatz, and the degree of spatial inhomogeneity in the model, remains unknown. Here we present a rigorous classical benchmarking study, demonstrating the potential impact of these factors on the accuracy of the variational solution of the Hubbard model on quantum hardware, for systems with up to 32 qubits. We find that even when using the most accurate wavefunction ansätze for the Hubbard model, the error in its ground state energy and wavefunction plateaus for larger lattices, while stronger electronic correlations magnify this issue. Concurrently, spatially inhomogeneous parameters and the presence of off-site Coulomb interactions only have a small effect on the accuracy of the computed ground state energies. Our study highlights the capabilities and limitations of current approaches for solving the Hubbard model on quantum hardware, and we discuss potential future avenues of research.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1979

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2003

Aviation Safety Modeling and Simulation (ASMM) Propulsion Fleet Modeling: A Tool for Semi-Automatic Construction of CORBA-based Applications from Legacy Fortran Programs

Within NASA's Aviation Safety Program, NASA GRC participates in the Modeling and Simulation Project called ASMM. NASA GRC s focus is to characterize the propulsion systems performance from a fleet management and maintenance perspective by modeling and through simulation predict the characteristics of two classes of commercial engines (CFM56 and GE90). In prior years, the High Performance Computing and Communication (HPCC) program funded, NASA Glenn in developing a large scale, detailed simulations for the analysis and design of aircraft engines called the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). Three major aspects of this modeling included the integration of different engine components, coupling of multiple disciplines, and engine component zooming at appropriate level fidelity, require relatively tight coupling of different analysis codes. Most of these codes in aerodynamics and solid mechanics are written in Fortran. Refitting these legacy Fortran codes with distributed objects can increase these codes reusability. Aviation Safety s modeling and simulation use in characterizing fleet management has similar needs. The modeling and simulation of these propulsion systems use existing Fortran and C codes that are instrumental in determining the performance of the fleet. The research centers on building a CORBA-based development environment for programmers to easily wrap and couple legacy Fortran codes. This environment consists of a C++ wrapper library to hide the details of CORBA and an efficient remote variable scheme to facilitate data exchange between the client and the server model. Additionally, a Web Service model should also be constructed for evaluation of this technology s use over the next two- three years.

Sang, Janche↗
DOE OSTI2018

2014-2018 Summary of NCAR activities in the Earth Energy Exascale System Model (E3SM) project

NCAR participation in E3SM activities as part of this funded collaborative project has been successful in leveraging the existing atmosphere model development experience from CESM scientists and applying it to initial v1 atmosphere model (EAM) development and analysis. NCAR partners collectively had many decades of experience in parameterization development, running and tuning coupled models and building the required software infrastructure to support ongoing model developments. Furthermore, collaboration between E3SM and CESM developers was of mutual benefit to both modeling endeavors. In the earlier periods of the project, participation in E3SM both complemented core critical path DOE activities and advanced individual parameterization development; including orographic drag, convection parameterization, convective gustiness and cloud and microphysical processes. Significant progress has been made implementing model capabilities for separating out the physics and dynamics grids, and providing the infrastructure for including orographic elevation class communication between the land and atmosphere models. Our activities working with the E3SM workflow and software engineering teams have established efficient protocols and infrastructure for the sharing of CESM and E3SM model codes of interest to both modeling groups, a large component of which is the mutual communication of common code bugs. As well as these specific project tasks all NCAR project members have been regular participants in atmosphere and coupled group telecons, as well as PI meetings. We have been fully engaged with and contributed to decisions regarding v1 atmosphere model developments, coupled model simulations, model tunings, and software engineering infrastructure. NCAR’s contribution to more recent E3SM development activities has centered on analysis of v1 release and pre-release simulations in order to address outstanding systematic biases and communicate climate improvements. Of particularly note is the work in understanding clouds and cloud feedbacks, shortcomings in ENSO and sub-seasonal variability; in particular the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Contributions have been made to a number of papers that are currently published or in preparation detailing model performance in CMIP6-protocal experiments. They outline the simulations of mean climate, clouds and convection processes, convective gustiness, atmospheric blocking coupled climates. The contributions of NCAR’s funded activities to the E3SM atmosphere in the initial years of the project have had a positive impact on many aspects of the model simulations described in these papers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2025

Modeling and Simulation Credibility Assessments of Musculoskeletal Computational Models for Simulating Astronaut Injuries Due to a Poor Spacesuit Fit

The musculoskeletal (MS) system of astronauts is subject to physiological changes, potentially leading to injuries due to the exposure to different gravitational environments experienced during spaceflight. These injuries can occur while an astronaut is performing an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) in space, on lunar or planetary surfaces or while wearing a spacesuit during terrestrial training for an EVA. The OpenSim MS modeling software can assess EVA induced MS injury mechanisms such as muscle strains, ligament injuries and joint injuries. One area of concern, since there are only a few different spacesuit sizes with limited adjustability, is the possibility of a poorly fitting spacesuit. This can cause unnatural joint motions and torques resulting in various MS injuries. A credibility assessment of the OpenSim modeling and simulation procedures is performed per NASA-STD-7009A to provide information on the credibility of the model’s use in simulating EVA related injury mechanisms. The credibility assessment evaluated various OpenSim models against the following eight credibility factors: data pedigree, input pedigree, code verification, solution verification, conceptual validation, referent validation, results uncertainty and results robustness (sensitivity). The models evaluated for EVA injuries will require additional credibility factor analysis and upgrades to the model features, such as adding ligaments to a whole-body model, to reliably predict and analyze the EVA injuries expected to occur due to a poor spacesuit fit. The degree of elevation strategy required to increase the credibility assessment scores will depend on the model complexity and the injury mechanism.

Christopher A. Gallo↗
NASA NTRS2024

Modeling and Simulation Credibility Assessments of Musculoskeletal Computational Models for Simulating Astronaut Injuries Due to a Poor Spacesuit Fit

The musculoskeletal (MS) system of astronauts is subject to physiological changes, potentially leading to injuries due to the exposure to different gravitational environments experienced during spaceflight. These injuries can occur while an astronaut is performing an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) in space, on lunar or planetary surfaces or while wearing a spacesuit during terrestrial training for an EVA. The OpenSim MS modeling software can assess EVA induced MS injury mechanisms such as muscle strains, ligament injuries and joint injuries. One area of concern, since there are only a few different spacesuit sizes with limited adjustability, is the possibility of a poorly fitting spacesuit. This can cause unnatural joint motions and torques resulting in various MS injuries. A credibility assessment of the OpenSim modeling and simulation procedures is performed per NASA-STD-7009A to provide information on the credibility of the model’s use in simulating EVA related injury mechanisms. The credibility assessment evaluated various OpenSim models against the following eight credibility factors: data pedigree, input pedigree, code verification, solution verification, conceptual validation, referent validation, results uncertainty and results robustness (sensitivity). The models evaluated for EVA injuries will require additional credibility factor analysis and upgrades to the model features, such as adding ligaments to a whole-body model, to reliably predict and analyze the EVA injuries expected to occur due to a poor spacesuit fit. The degree of elevation strategy required to increase the credibility assessment scores will depend on the model complexity and the injury mechanism.

Christopher A Gallo↗
DOE OSTI2016

Modeling and simulation challenges pursued by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL)

The Consortium for the Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL), the first Energy Innovation Hub of the Department of Energy, was established in 2010 with the goal of providing modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities that support and accelerate the improvement of nuclear energy's economic competitiveness and the reduction of spent nuclear fuel volume per unit energy, and all while assuring nuclear safety. To accomplish this requires advances in M&S capabilities in radiation transport, thermal-hydraulics, fuel performance and corrosion chemistry. To focus CASL's R&D, industry challenge problems have been defined, which equate with long standing issues of the nuclear power industry that M&S can assist in addressing. To date CASL has developed a multi-physics “core simulator” based upon pin-resolved radiation transport and subchannel (within fuel assembly) thermal-hydraulics, capitalizing on the capabilities of high performance computing. CASL's fuel performance M&S capability can also be optionally integrated into the core simulator, yielding a coupled multi-physics capability with untapped predictive potential. Material models have been developed to enhance predictive capabilities of fuel clad creep and growth, along with deeper understanding of zirconium alloy clad oxidation and hydrogen pickup. Understanding of corrosion chemistry (e.g., CRUD formation) has evolved at all scales: micro, meso and macro. CFD R&D has focused on improvement in closure models for subcooled boiling and bubbly flow, and the formulation of robust numerical solution algorithms. For multiphysics integration, several iterative acceleration methods have been assessed, illuminating areas where further research is needed. Finally, uncertainty quantification and data assimilation techniques, based upon sampling approaches, have been made more feasible for practicing nuclear engineers via R&D on dimensional reduction and biased sampling. Industry adoption of CASL's evolving M&S capabilities, which is in progress, will assist in addressing long-standing and future operational and safety challenges of the nuclear industry. - Highlights: • Complexity of physics based modeling of light water reactor cores being addressed. • Capability developed to help address problems that have challenged the nuclear power industry. • Simulation capabilities that take advantage of high performance computing developed.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗