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We propose a multi-scale analytics and modeling framework to fill the gap in integrating circular solar economy principles with ecosystem and climate commitments, enabling a holistic sustainability analysis of perovskite PVs.
A solid–gas reaction rate modeling framework is applied to characterize degradation in thermochemical materials induced by thermal cycling. Time constants and a kinetic conversion ratio are established for a representative carbonation-calcination reaction, which provides insight into degradation mechanisms and reveals a mitigation strategy by tuning reaction duration.
Here we present techniques for evaluating the radiated power in JET disruptions. Disrupting plasmas are shown to have non-axisymmetric radiation profiles, motivating the re-evaluation of the standard techniques for calculating the total radiated power at JET using bolometry. Four single-channel bolometers at different toroidal locations are exploited to quantify the radiation asymmetry. Toroidal radiation peaking factors integrated over the entire disruption of up to 1.5 have been observed when varying the quantity of neon in pellets used in disruptions mitigated by shattered pellet injection. Using synthetic bolometer diagnostics developed with the Cherab spectroscopy modeling framework, we can estimate the systematic error on total power calculations for relevant radiation profiles and improve estimates of the total radiated power. We show that the component of the systematic error on the total power due to the poloidal radiation profile can be reduced from 70% to 10% with suitable assumptions about the structure of the poloidal profile.
The first indirectly driven, liquid DT-filled double shell inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions have recently been successfully performed on the National Ignition Facility (NIF). Double shells are a class of alternative designs that use a low-Z outer shell to compress a foam cushion that accelerates a high-Z inner shell to efficiently compress a liquid DT core. Double shells are challenging to fabricate, field, and model. Important engineering features enabling double shell fabrication include a fill-tube penetrating all shells and a carefully designed and very narrow (few μm) step-joint in the ablator. Due to the higher density materials involved, high Atwood number instabilities are also important at many material interfaces. In this paper, numerical simulations of double shell implosions using the Los Alamos National Laboratory multi-physics radiation-hydrodynamics code xRAGE will be discussed. An extensive effort has been under way for several years to develop the code capabilities for ICF simulations in a common modeling framework to allow ease of simulation setup and standardization of the computational methodology. This paper will present a wide range of simulation results capturing, quantifying, and comparing the impact of all these degradation mechanisms on implosion performance. Brief comparisons with recent experimental results and suggestions for future improvements will also be discussed. Our results suggest that capsule surface roughness and the step-joint gap have the largest impact on implosion performance. Initial experimental data may suggest that the sensitivity to the step-joint gap could provide the dominant explanation for DT-filled double shell experiments that have been fielded on NIF thus far.
Black carbon (BC) absorbs solar radiation, leading to a strong but uncertain warming effect on climate. A key challenge in modeling and quantifying BC’s radiative effect on climate is predicting enhancements in light absorption that result from internal mixing between BC and other aerosol components. Modeling and laboratory studies show that BC, when mixed with other aerosol components, absorbs more strongly than pure, uncoated BC; however, some ambient observations suggest more variable and weaker absorption enhancement. We show that the lower-than-expected enhancements in ambient measurements result from a combination of two factors. First, the often used spherical, concentric core-shell approximation generally overestimates the absorption by BC. Second, and more importantly, inadequate consideration of heterogeneity in particle-to-particle composition engenders substantial overestimation in absorption by the total particle population, with greater heterogeneity associated with larger model–measurement differences. We show that accounting for these two effects—variability in per-particle composition and deviations from the core-shell approximation—reconciles absorption enhancement predictions with laboratory and field observations and resolves the apparent discrepancy. Furthermore, our consistent model framework provides a path forward for improving predictions of BC’s radiative effect on climate.
Increasing global demands for food and energy necessitate innovative land-use solutions. Agrivoltaics, colocating solar photovoltaics with agriculture, shows promise, but its widespread adoption faces complex biophysical and economic trade-offs in a changing climate. Here, we develop an integrated biophysical-economic modeling framework to quantify how agrivoltaics affect biophysical and economic impacts across the Midwestern United States under both current and project climate conditions. We find strong regional divergences driven by climate gradients. In the humid eastern Midwest, solar panel shading limits photosynthesis, leading to reduced yields (maize -24%; soybean -16%) and lower farmers' profitability (maize -16%; soybean -2%) compared to conventional agriculture. Conversely, in the semiarid western region, shading alleviates heat and water stress, moderating yield reductions for maize (-12%) and even boosting soybean yields (+6%), resulting in improved economic returns (-6% for maize; +9% for soybean), for a scenario with 33% photovoltaic ground coverage ratio. Although agrivoltaics generate substantial electrical energy across all regions, high upfront installation costs challenge solar developers compared to standalone solar photovoltaics. However, our analysis identifies “win-win” opportunities where soybean-based agrivoltaics in the semiarid region produce economic benefits for both farmers and solar developers, highlighting the necessity for region-specific designs tailored to local climate conditions. Critically, future climate projections indicate eastward expansion of semiarid conditions, broadening areas where agrivoltaics can mitigate crop yield penalties (even boosting yield) and improve overall profitability, especially under high-emission scenarios. The results provide a mechanistic and economically integrated understanding essential for developing evidence-based and region-specific strategies to scale agrivoltaics in a changing climate.
The study of edge localized mode (ELM) behavior, stationary heat flux and transient heat flux during the ELM crash phase is performed for a China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) 1 GW hybrid mode operation scenario ($R$ = 7.2 m, ${B_{\text{T}}}$ = 6.5 T, ${I_{\text{p}}}$ = 13.78 MA). Modeling and simulation start with a scenario obtained by multi-code integrated modeling on the one modeling framework for integrated tasks framework. Linear stability and nonlinear simulations of ELM dynamics are carried out using the BOUT++ six-field reduced magnetohydrodynamic module, which show a much smaller ELM energy loss (Δ ELM ~ 0.13%) compared to that of a Type-I ELM. Parametric analysis of the weak linear growth rate and small ELM energy loss characteristics shed light on physics corresponding to a grassy ELM regime for CFETR 1 GW hybrid scenario. The transient heat flux on the divertor target during this small ELM phase is investigated using BOUT++. Here we found that upstream radial transport in the scrape-off-layer (SOL) induced by small ELMs is weak, which keeps it in the drift-dominated region. However, the heat flux width is still broadened to ${\lambda _{\text{q}}}$ = 4.64 mm by the increase of separatrix temperature during ELM nonlinear evolution. The impact of transient peak heat load and ELM energy fluence on tungsten melting and net erosion rate of divertor target is evaluated for the first-time using physics-based transport that connects the pedestal with the SOL. Energy fluence caused by a single ELM pulse is below the tungsten melting limit, while tungsten erosion would exceed the material requirements. We conclude that external mitigation methods, such as divertor detachment and advanced divertor geometry are likely needed for the steady state operation of CFETR.
WEST L-mode plasmas with dominant electron heating and no core torque source have observed improvements in confinement during boron (B) powder injection. These results are reminiscent of previous powder injection experiments on other devices and gaseous impurity seeding experiments on WEST. During powder injection, the stored energy increased up to 25% due to enhanced ion and electron heat and particle confinement. The improvements in confinement were not indicative of an L-H transition. To identify the dominant mechanisms and the causality chain behind these improvements in confinement, we employ interpretative modeling using METIS, predictive integrated modeling using a high-fidelity plasma simulator (HFPS), and stand-alone gyrokinetic simulations using quasi-linear gyrokinetic code. Interpretative modeling with METIS allowed for the estimation of missing data while maintaining good overall consistency with experiment. These results provided the initial conditions for fully predictive flux driven simulations using the HFPS. From these simulations, quasi-linear gyrokinetic analysis was performed at ρ = 0.5 and ρ = 0.65. Collisionality was found to be a strong candidate for the turbulence suppression mechanism at ρ = 0.5, while a combination of collisionality and the T e /T i ratio was found to be the likely mechanism at ρ = 0.65. The results additionally suggested that increased Z eff (through main ion dilution) could play a role in the improved confinement, but this could not be confirmed due to a lack of experimental measurements. The modeling framework established here can now be used to evaluate and exploit a variety of future powder injection experiments.
Abstract Bulk superconductors can be used as super-strength quasi-permanent magnets capable of providing magnetic flux densities considerably superior to conventional permanent magnets. This makes them attractive for several engineering applications that rely on strong magnetic fields like rotating machines, NMR/MRI and magnetic drug delivery systems. Recently, the authors reported a record trapped magnetic field in an iron-based bulk superconductor: 2.83 T was trapped in potassium-doped barium iron arsenide (Ba, K)Fe 2 As 2 (or Ba122) at 5 K. Of particular significance is that the strength and temporal stability of this magnetic field exceeds the requirements of MRI machines, indicating iron-based bulks can now perform at levels demanded by engineering applications. One crucial challenge for their practical use, however, is the need to apply and remove an external magnetic field to magnetize them. Pulsed field magnetization (PFM) shows great promise as a practical method of magnetizing bulks, but the process generates heat in the bulk that is detrimental to its superconducting performance and ability to act as a super-strength magnet. In this paper, coupled electromagnetic–thermal numerical models are used to simulate the PFM of iron-based bulk superconductors. Here we focus on the recent-record-breaking, fine-grain polycrystalline K-doped Ba122 bulks. The impact that the specific J c ( B ) characteristics and thermal properties of the Ba122 material—all of which have been experimentally measured from state-of-the-art samples—have on the magnetic flux dynamics and thermal behaviour during PFM, including the final trapped field, is investigated. We show that because the thermal properties are similar to those of REBa 2 Cu 3 O 7 −δ bulks, a similar response to pulsed fields is obtained. A maximum trapped field of ∼0.81 T (∼43.3% of the maximum trapped field capability under ideal, field-cooling conditions) was simulated at 5 K, with a magnetization efficiency of ∼54%. The modelling framework provides a fast and flexible tool for optimising the practical PFM process at different operating temperatures to maximise the trapped field in state-of-the-art Ba122 bulks and to guide the design of future experiments.
The growth of large-scale structure, as revealed in the anisotropic of clustering of galaxies in the low redshift Universe at z < 2, provides a stringent test of our cosmological model. The strongest current constraints come from the BOSS and eBOSS surveys, with uncertainties on σ 8 , the amplitude of clustering on an 8 h –1 Mpc scale, of less than 10 per cent. A number of different approaches have been taken to fitting this signal, leading to discrepancies of up to 1σ in the measurements of the amplitude of fluctuations at late times. We compare in some detail two of the leading approaches, one based on fitting a template cosmology whose amplitude and length scales are allowed to float with one based on varying the underlying parameters of a cosmological model directly, when fitting to the BOSS DR12 data. Holding the input data, scale cuts, window functions and modeling framework fixed we are able to isolate the cause of the differences and discuss the implications for future surveys.
In this work, we report the numerical analyses of linear magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) plasma response to applied three-dimensional magnetic perturbations (MPs) in a joint DIII-D/EAST collaboration on high-β P (poloidal beta) plasmas, utilizing the extended-MHD code M3D-C1, with the purpose of realizing a better understanding of the existing experiment in which the n=3 MPs were applied to such high-β P plasmas attempting to control large amplitude type-I ELMs. Such high-β P plasmas obtained at the DIII-D tokamak feature an upper-biased double null configuration, a high edge safety factor q 95 ~6.4, and a stable internal transport barrier (ITB) leading to relatively high core pressures. Single-fluid simulations show that the plasma response to n=3 MPs, including both non-resonant/kinking and resonant components, is significantly weaker than that to n=1 or 2 MPs. To survey the impact of q 95 on plasma response to applied MPs, the SEGWAY (Self-consistent Equilibrium Generating Workflow for AnalYsis) module, developed in the OMFIT integrated modelling framework, is employed to generate a series of equilibria with a wide range of q 95 while other key parameters including the normalized beta, electron density at pedestal top, and plasma shape are kept fixed. Compared to the vacuum response, single-fluid M3D-C1 simulations predict a much more significant decrease of resonant plasma response to the applied n=3 MPs at the maximum penetration radii as q 95 increases. In contrast to single-fluid simulation results showing resonant penetration occurs only near the pedestal top where the E×B toroidal rotation frequency is zero, two-fluid simulations show two comparable resonant penetrations locating near the pedestal top and the ITB foot, where the perpendicular electron rotation frequency is zero. Such resonant field penetration near the ITB foot may be responsible for the observed formation of a staircase structure in both electron density and temperature profiles and thereby a considerable deterioration of global plasma performance when MPs are applied in high-β P plasmas. Motivated by this numerical work, we provide some ideas for the future research, with the purpose of realizing effective ELM control in such high-β P plasmas on the DIII-D and EAST devices.
Abstract 3D resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) is one promising way to control edge localized modes that can cause excessive material erosion of tokamak first walls. However, RMP can lead to undesired degradation of plasma confinement, including fast-particle losses, which can impact the performance and safety of the reactor. This work investigates the optimization of the poloidal spectrum of the 3D field to optimize fast ion confinement during edge localized mode (ELM) suppression. In the initial step, the validity of the modeling framework is tested against experimental data. Simulations successfully replicate an increase in poloidal limiter temperature with different poloidal spectra. Then, the simulation shows improvement of fast ion confinement with a reduction of core resonant response, while edge resonant magnetic fields are maintained above the threshold to sustain the ELM suppression. Reduction of the core resonant fields keeps the Kolmogorov–Arnold–Moser surface and reduces the fast particle losses due to the stochastic magnetic field lines. The results highlight the potential of edge localization of the resonant fields to enhance the performance of fusion reactors, but further investigation is needed to improve the validation of this approach.
The generation of runaway electrons (REs) during disruptions poses a significant challenge for the operation of tokamaks. The production of these high-energy electrons can cause substantial damage, particularly when the plasma current is high, making it a critical concern for ITER. For the high-temperature plasmas anticipated in ITER, the primary generation of REs may be dominated by the hot tail mechanism, which consists of the acceleration of hot electrons from the pre-disruption population which have not yet thermalized with the bulk following the rapid cooling of the plasma. To account for the significant 3D effects on RE production, a hot tail modeling framework has been developed within the non-linear 3D extended MHD code JOREK. This paper presents the structure of this framework, which is based on test electrons evolving in MHD fields. The verification of the method shows good agreement with the reference DREAM code for 0D test cases, as well as for axisymmetric simulations of 15 MA ITER H-mode disruption scenarios. Furthermore, a proof-of-principle application to a DIII-D case demonstrates the framework’s capability to capture for the first time the hot tail generation in 3D MHD simulations in realistic geometry. Preliminary results suggest that the production of REs is significantly reduced by stochastic losses.
High river temperatures, or “thermal extremes”, can cause fish mortality and thermoelectric powerplant derating. Under climate change, projected higher air temperature and stronger surface energy fluxes will lead to increased water temperatures, exacerbating thermal extremes. However, cold hypolimnetic releases from thermally stratified reservoirs can depress tailwater temperatures and therefore alleviate thermal extremes. Thermal extremes are more harmful when they coincide with low flows, which we refer to as “hydrologic hot-dry events”. To assess multisectoral impacts of climate change over large regions, we evaluate thermal events according to three impact attributes: duration (D), intensity (I), and severity (S). We apply an established model framework to simulate streamflow and stream temperature over the southeastern US regulated river system. We quantify climate change impacts (by the 2080s under RCP8.5) by comparing historical and future periods and quantify regulation impacts by comparing unregulated and regulated scenarios. We find that climate change will exacerbate thermal extremes (all three metrics) in both unregulated and regulated scenarios, albeit less in the regulated scenario. Thermal mitigation from reservoir regulation will be stronger under climate change, decreasing the three metrics compared to the unregulated case. Even so, thermal extremes in the regulated scenario will still be more severe under climate change, and only 12.2%, 19.7%, and 26.0% of D, I, and S can be mitigated by reservoirs. Despite stronger reservoir stratification, the number of regulated river segments that experience simultaneous high temperature and low flow events (hydrologic hot-dry events) will increase by 21.4% by the 2080s under RCP8.5. These events will have a median annual duration of 10.3 days/year, over 10 times the historical value.
Abstract A large literature exists on mechanisms driving soil production of the greenhouse gases CO 2 and CH 4 . Although it is common knowledge that measurements obtained through field studies vs. laboratory incubations can diverge because of the vastly different conditions of these environments, few studies have systematically examined these patterns. These data are used to parameterize and benchmark ecosystem- to global-scale models, which are then susceptible to the biases of the source data. Here, we examine how greenhouse gas measurements may be influenced by whether the measurement/incubation was conducted in the field vs. laboratory, focusing on CO 2 and CH 4 measurements. We use Q 10 of greenhouse gas flux (temperature sensitivity) for our analyses because this metric is commonly used in biological and Earth system sciences and is an important parameter in many modeling frameworks. We predicted that laboratory measurements would be less variable, but also less representative of true field conditions. However, there was greater variability in the Q 10 values calculated from lab-based measurements of CO 2 fluxes, because lab experiments explore extremes rarely seen in situ , and reflect the physical and chemical disturbances occurring during sampling, transport, and incubation. Overall, respiration Q 10 values were significantly greater in laboratory incubations (mean = 4.19) than field measurements (mean = 3.05), with strong influences of incubation temperature and climate region/biome. However, this was in part because field measurements typically represent total respiration (Rs), whereas lab incubations typically represent heterotrophic respiration (Rh), making direct comparisons difficult to interpret. Focusing only on Rh-derived Q 10 , these values showed almost identical distributions across laboratory ( n = 1110) and field ( n = 581) experiments, providing strong support for using the former as an experimental proxy for the latter, although we caution that geographic biases in the extant data make this conclusion tentative. Due to a smaller sample size of CH 4 Q 10 data, we were unable to perform a comparable robust analysis, but we expect similar interactions with soil temperature, moisture, and environmental/climatic variables. Our results here suggest the need for more concerted efforts to document and standardize these data, including sample and site metadata.
Global food security can be threatened by short-term extreme events that negatively impact food production, food purchasing power, and agricultural economic activity. At the same time, environmental pollutants like greenhouse gases (GHGs) can be reduced due to the same short-term extreme stressors. Stress events include pandemics like COVID-19 and widespread droughts like those experienced in 2015. Here we consider the question: what if COVID-19 had co-occurred with a 2015-like drought year? Using a coupled biophysical-economic modeling framework, we evaluate how this compound stress would alter both agricultural sector GHG emissions and change the number of undernourished people worldwide. We further consider three interdependent adaptation options: local water use for crop production, regional shifts in cropland area, and global trade of agricultural products. We find that GHG emissions decline due to reduced economic activity in the agricultural sector, but this is paired with large increases in undernourished populations in developing nations. Local and regional adaptations that make use of natural resources enable global-scale reductions in impacted populations via increased global trade.
Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), contributing approximately 30% of total surface CH 4 emissions, and they have been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget based on the most recent Global Carbon Project CH 4 report. High uncertainties in the bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions pose significant challenges for accurately understanding their spatiotemporal variations, and for the scientific community to monitor wetland CH 4 emissions from space. In fact, there are large disagreements between bottom–up estimates versus top–down estimates inferred from inversion of atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. To address these critical gaps, we review recent development, validation, and applications of bottom–up estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions, as well as how they are used in top–down inversions. These bottom–up estimates, using (1) empirical biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WetCHARTs: 125–208 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); (2) process-based biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WETCHIMP: 190 ± 39 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); and (3) data-driven machine learning approach (e.g. UpCH4: 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 yr -1 ). Bottom–up estimates are subject to significant uncertainties (~80 Tg CH 4 yr -1 ), and the ranges of different estimates do not overlap, further amplifying the overall uncertainty when combining multiple data products. These substantial uncertainties highlight gaps in our understanding of wetland CH 4 biogeochemistry and wetland inundation dynamics. Major tropical and arctic wetland complexes are regional hotspots of CH 4 emissions. However, the scarcity of satellite data over the tropics and northern high latitudes offer limited information for top–down inversions to improve bottom–up estimates. Recent advances in surface measurements of CH 4 fluxes (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 ) across a wide range of ecosystems including bogs, fens, marshes, and forest swamps provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve existing bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 estimates. We suggest that continuous long-term surface measurements at representative wetlands, high fidelity wetland mapping, combined with an appropriate modeling framework, will be needed to significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. There is also a pressing unmet need for fine-resolution and high-precision satellite CH 4 observations directed at wetlands.
Abstract Proton-conducting ceramics (e.g. doped barium zirconates or cerates) are typically mixed ionic-electronic conductors (MIECs). The electronic conduction, typically in the form of positively charged small polarons or electron holes, leads to ‘electronic leakage.’ In an ideal steam-electrolysis cell, one gas-phase H 2 molecule is produced from every two electrons delivered from an external power source. In other words, such ideal behavior achieves 100% faradaic efficiency. However, the electronic flux associated with MIEC membranes contributes to reduced faradaic efficiency. The present paper develops a model that predicts the behavior of faradaic efficiency as a function of electrolysis-cell operating conditions. Although the model framework is more general, the paper focuses on the behavior of a cell based upon a BaCe 0.7 Zr 0.1 Y 0.1 Yb 0.1 O 3 − δ (BCZYYb) membrane. The study predicts the effects of operating conditions, including temperature, pressure, and gas compositions.