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NASA NTRS1999

Clustering of the Diffuse Infrared Light from the COBE DIRBE Maps: Power Spectrum Analysis and Excess Isotropic Component of Fluctuations - 3

The cosmic infrared background (CIB) radiation is the cosmic repository for energy release throughout the history of the universe. The spatial fluctuations of the CIB resulting from galaxy clustering are expected to be at least a few percent on scales of a degree, depending on the luminosity and clustering history of the early universe. Using the all-sky data from the COBE DIRBE instrument at wavelengths 1.25 - 100 microns we attempt to measure the CIB fluctuations. In the near-IR, foreground emission is dominated by small scale structure due to stars in the Galaxy. There we find a strong correlation between the amplitude of the fluctuations and Galactic latitude after removing bright foreground stars. Using data outside the Galactic plane (absolute value of b > 20 deg) and away from the center (90 deg < l < 270 deg) we extrapolate the amplitude of the fluctuations to cosec absolute value of b = 0. We find a positive intercept of delta.F(sub rms) = 15.5(sup +3.7, sub -7.0), 5.9(sup +1.6, sub -3.7), 2.4(sup +0.5, sub -0.9), 2.0(sup +0.25, sub -0.5) nW/sq m.sr at 1.25, 2.2, 3.5 and 4.9 microns respectively, where the errors are the range of 92% confidence limits. For color subtracted maps between band 1 and 2 we find the isotropic part of the fluctuations at 7.6(sup +1.2, sub -2.4) nW/sq m.sr. Based on detailed numerical and analytic models, this residual is not likely to originate from the Galaxy, our clipping algorithm, or instrumental noise. We demonstrate that the residuals from the fit used in the extrapolation are distributed isotropically and suggest that this extra variance may result from structure in the CIB. We also obtain a positive intercept from a linear combination of maps at 1.25 and 2.2 microns. For 2 deg < theta < 15 deg, a power-spectrum analysis yields limits of (theta/5 deg) x delta.F(sub rms)(theta) < 6, 2.5, 0.8, 0.5 nW/sq m.sr at 1.25, 2.2, 3.5 and 4.9 microns respectively. From 10 - 100 microns, the dominant foregrounds are emission by dust in the Solar system and the Galaxy. There the upper limits on the CIB fluctuations are below 1 nW/sq m.sr and are lowest (< equal 0.5 nW/sq m.sr) at 25 microns.

Kashlinsky, A.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Probing gravity with a joint analysis of galaxy and CMB lensing and SDSS spectroscopy

We present measurements of EG, a probe of gravity from large-scale structure, using BOSS LOWZ and CMASS spectroscopic samples, with lensing measurements from SDSS (galaxy lensing) and Planck (CMB lensing). Using SDSS lensing and the BOSS LOWZ sample, we measure ⟨ E G ⟩ = 0.40 − 0.04 + 0.05 (stat), ±0.026 (systematic), consistent with the predicted value from the Planck ΛCDM model, EG=0.46. Using CMB lensing, we measure ⟨ E G ⟩ = 0.46 − 0.09 + 0.08 (stat) for LOWZ (statistically consistent with galaxy lensing and Planck predictions) and ⟨ E G ⟩ = 0.39 − 0.05 + 0.05 (stat) for the CMASS sample, consistent with the Planck prediction of E G =0.40 given the higher redshift of the sample. We also study the redshift evolution of E G by splitting the LOWZ sample into two samples based on redshift, with results being consistent with model predictions. We estimate systematic uncertainties on the above $\langle$E G $\rangle$ numbers to be ~6% (when using galaxy-galaxy lensing) or ~3% (when using CMB lensing), subdominant to the quoted statistical errors. These systematic error budgets are dominated by observational systematics in galaxy-galaxy lensing and by theoretical modeling uncertainties, respectively. We do not estimate observational systematics in galaxy-CMB lensing cros-correlations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying modeling uncertainty in simplified beam models for building response prediction

The use of simple models for response prediction of building structures is preferred in earthquake engineering for risk evaluations at regional scales, as they make computational studies more feasible. The primary impediment in their gainful use presently is the lack of viable methods for quantifying (and reducing upon) the modeling errors/uncertainties they bear. This study presents a Bayesian calibration method wherein the modeling error is embedded into the parameters of the model. Here, the method is specifically described for coupled shear-flexural beam models here, but it can be applied to any parametric surrogate model. The major benefit the method offers is the ability to consider the modeling uncertainty in the forward prediction of any degree-of-freedom or composite response regardless of the data used in calibration. The method is extensively verified using two synthetic examples. In the first example, the beam model is calibrated to represent a similar beam model but with enforced modeling errors. In the second example, the beam model is used to represent the detailed finite element model of a 52-story building. Both examples show the capability of the proposed solution to provide realistic uncertainty estimation around the mean prediction.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1988

Grammians and model reduction in limited time and frequency intervals

In this paper the controllability and observability grammians in limited time and frequency intervals are studied, and used for model reduction. In balanced and modal coordinates a near-optimal reduction procedure is developed, yielding the reduction error (norm of the difference between the output of the original system and the reduced model) almost minimal. Several examples are given to illustrate the concept for model reduction of continuous- and discrete-time systems, stable and unstable systems, in limited tim or/and frequency interval. Finally, the model reduction of a flexible truss structure is presented.

Gawronski, Wodek↗

NASA NTRS1991

On the accuracy of shape sensitivity

The calculation of sensitivity of the response of a structure modeled by finite elements to shape variation is known to be subject to numerical difficulties. The accuracy of a given method is typically measured against the yard stick of finite-difference sensitivity calculation. The present paper demonstrates with a simple example that this approach may be flawed because of discretization errors associated with the finite element mesh. Seven methods for calculating sensitivity derivatives are compared for a two-material beam problem with a moving interface. It is found that as the mesh is refined, displacement sensitivity derivatives converge more slowly than the displacements. Six of the methods agree fairly well, but the adjoint variational surface method provides substantially different results. However, the difference is found to reflect convergence from another direction to the same answer rather than reduced accuracy. Additionally, it is observed that small derivatives are particularly prone to accuracy problems.

Haftka, R. T.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Application of optical distributed sensing and computation to control of large space structures

A real time holographic sensing technique is introduced and its advantages are investigated from the filtering and control point of view. A feature of holographic sensing is its capability to make distributed measurements of the position and velocity of moving objects, such as a vibrating flexible space structure. This work is based upon the distributed parameter models of linear time invariant systems, particularly including the linear oscillator equations describing the vibration of large flexible space structures. The general conclusion is that application of optical distributed sensors bring gains in the situation where Kalman filtering is necessary for state estimation. In this case, both steady state and transient filtering error covariance become smaller. This in turn results in smaller cost in the LQG problem.

Balakrishnan, A. V.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Origin and Evolution of Deep Plasmaspheric Notches

Deep plasmaspheric notches can extend over more than 2 RE in radial distance and 3 hours MLT in the magnetic equatorial plane. They appear to be among the largest evacuated features in the exterior plasmaspheric boundary. They can last for days and exhibit varying structure. It appears that low-density channels resulting from the entrainment of the plasmaspheric convection plume during storm-time recovery share the same origin as notches. Notches rather than channels result from differences in storm- time conditions. Strong convection tends to result in low-density channels, while weaker convection and limited erosion results in notches. Eighteen events in 2000 have been analyzed. Among these events, notches were found to drift as slowly as 72% of corotation. In only one case was a notch found to drift at the corotation rate within measurement error. On average, notches drift at about 2 1.5 hours per day or 90% of the co-rotational rate. Notches also sometimes exhibit an interior structure that appears as an extended prominence of dense plasma, which forms a W-like feature in IMAGEEUV images when viewed from Earth-center. Modeling suggests such features may be caused by small-scale potential structures that result from the localized injection of ring current plasma. Plasma filling rates during recovery and drainage during a minor storm are reported.

Gallagher, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Single Degree-of-Freedom Modeling of SLS Liquid Hydrogen Pre-Valve Flow Guide to Enable Rapid Transient Analysis

A unique single degree-of-freedom approximation technique has been developed to enable rapid application of a temporally-defined multi-spectral semi-narrow-band loading for generation of realistic stress/cycle values compared to a resonant analysis. The technique uses the harmonic analysis at resonance of a high-fidelity finite element model to produce a transfer function, which is then used to calibrate the response of the SDOF model. A standard numerical ordinary differential equation solver is then used to obtain the temporal response, and its histogram is used in a fatigue/fracture model. This technique is related to other SDOF methods used widely in industry, such as Miles' Equation and the Shock Response Spectra, but it is unique in that it produces a realistic time history of the response. The most obvious error in the process, which is the effect of closely-spaced modes, was also assessed using the parallel application of several SDOF models, and the error is shown to be small. The application of this unique and tractable reduced-order methodology has enabled the SLS program to avoid substantial cost and schedule penalties if a redesign or change of material were required. It has also enabled quick analysis of a number of other structures undergoing the same or similar excitation fields, and quick assessment when the excitation and structural configuration has been altered due to design changes in the system.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbonfluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle,we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global VegetationModels (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduceseasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to bothtotal productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models representphenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in drylandecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in bothmoisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure ofexisting phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) andgross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized modelparameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, wemodified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation ofgrass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance wereassociated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to bettercapture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R2=0.75) and gross primary productivity (R2=0.84), thoughits ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new modelalso resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findingsdemonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecastclimate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model Phenology Parameter optimization E↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Next Generation of Lightning Mapping

With the removal of the Lightning Imaging Sensor from the International Space Station, a gap has opened in lightning observation from low-Earth orbit. The CubeSpark mission concept aims to fill this role using a constellation of satellites with radio frequency (RF) sensors and bi-spectral optical imagers to observe lightning flashes more completely and with better resolution than is currently possible from space. In this study, we assess the feasibility of multiple methods of not only mapping lightning locations, but also inferring 3D flash and charge structures. This is done primarily by simulating lightning emissions in the very high frequency (VHF) band, modeling their propagation to orbital sensors, and reconstructing their locations using time-of-arrival (TOA) minimization algorithms. Constellation shape, number, and atmospheric conditions are varied in order to quantify the three main sources of geolocation error: geometric, ionospheric, and instrumental effects. The promising results presented here demonstrate 3D resolution better than 1-2 km in many cases, enabling new applications in meteorology and climate sciences.

CubeSpark↗

DOE OSTI2023

UniKP: a unified framework for the prediction of enzyme kinetic parameters

Prediction of enzyme kinetic parameters is essential for designing and optimizing enzymes for various biotechnological and industrial applications, but the limited performance of current prediction tools on diverse tasks hinders their practical applications. Here, we introduce UniKP, a unified framework based on pretrained language models for the prediction of enzyme kinetic parameters, including enzyme turnover number (k cat ), Michaelis constant (K m ), and catalytic efficiency (k cat / K m ), from protein sequences and substrate structures. A two-layer framework derived from UniKP (EF-UniKP) has also been proposed to allow robust k cat prediction in considering environmental factors, including pH and temperature. In addition, four representative re-weighting methods are systematically explored to successfully reduce the prediction error in high-value prediction tasks. We have demonstrated the application of UniKP and EF-UniKP in several enzyme discovery and directed evolution tasks, leading to the identification of new enzymes and enzyme mutants with higher activity. UniKP is a valuable tool for deciphering the mechanisms of enzyme kinetics and enables novel insights into enzyme engineering and their industrial applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Toward a Framework for Systematic Error Modeling of NASA Spaceborne Radar with NOAA/NSSL Ground Radar-Based National Mosaic QPE

Characterization of the error associated to satellite rainfall estimates is a necessary component of deterministic and probabilistic frameworks involving space-born passive and active microwave measurement") for applications ranging from water budget studies to forecasting natural hazards related to extreme rainfall events. We focus here on the error structure of NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) at ground. The problem is addressed by comparison of PR QPEs with reference values derived from ground-based measurements using NOAA/NSSL ground radar-based National Mosaic and QPE system (NMQ/Q2). A preliminary investigation of this subject has been carried out at the PR estimation scale (instantaneous and 5 km) using a three-month data sample in the southern part of US. The primary contribution of this study is the presentation of the detailed steps required to derive trustworthy reference rainfall dataset from Q2 at the PR pixel resolution. It relics on a bias correction and a radar quality index, both of which provide a basis to filter out the less trustworthy Q2 values. Several aspects of PR errors arc revealed and quantified including sensitivity to the processing steps with the reference rainfall, comparisons of rainfall detectability and rainfall rate distributions, spatial representativeness of error, and separation of systematic biases and random errors. The methodology and framework developed herein applies more generally to rainfall rate estimates from other sensors onboard low-earth orbiting satellites such as microwave imagers and dual-wavelength radars such as with the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission.

Kirstettier, Pierre-Emmanual↗

DOE OSTI2019

Gaussian beam scintillation index for slant path in weak turbulence: closed form expressions

The scintillation index (SI) is an important issue in studying the effect of the atmospheric turbulence in the light waves. With the Rytov weak fluctuation theory, the SI is commonly referred to the Rytov parameter. The previous studies dealt with the plane wave and spherical wave models. Each of these gives an idea of how an optical beam will react to turbulence but are not realistic. One is infinitely long, while the other is an infinitesimal point source. The Gaussian beam wave is the most realistic of the optical waves, but also the most complex to use for calculations. In this paper, a closed form expression for Gaussian beam SI propagation in slant path and through weak fluctuation is derived using the polynomial model of the refractive index structure parameter. The slant path SI model of the plane and spherical waves can be generated from the SI expression of Gaussian beam. The analytic expressions are obtained and are then used to analyze the effect of propagation distance, transmitter/receiver heights, and elevation angle on the SI. Signal to noise ratio and bit error rate are calculated for performance evaluation showing a significant enhancement at elevation angles greater than 45°.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2019

A machine learning approach to thermal conductivity modeling: A case study on irradiated uranium-molybdenum nuclear fuels

A deep neural network was developed for the purpose of predicting thermal conductivity with a case study performed on irradiated nuclear fuel. Traditional thermal conductivity modeling approaches rely on existing theoretical frameworks that describe known, relevant phenomena that govern the microstructural evolution processes during neutron irradiation (such as recrystallization, and pore size, distribution and morphology). Current empirical modeling approaches, however, do not represent all irradiation test data well. We develop a machine learning approach to thermal conductivity modeling that does not require a priori knowledge of a specific material microstructure and system of interest. Our approach allows re-searchers to probe dependency of thermal conductivity on a variety of reactor operating and material conditions. The purpose of building such a model is to allow for improved predictive capabilities linking structure-property-processing-performance relationships in the system of interest (here, irradiated nuclear fuel), which could lead to improved experimental test planning and characterization. The uranium-molybdenum system is the fuel system studied in this work, and historic irradiation test data is leveraged for model development. Our model achieved a mean absolute percent error of approximately 10%. Results indicate our model generalizes well to never before seen data, and thus use of deep learning methods for material property predictions from limited, historic irradiation data is a viable approach. This work challenges the current paradigm in materials science, where material property models are based on limited experimental data fitted to low-dimensionality phenomenological models, or by simulations in which fundamental equations are explicitly solved. The work presented here aims to demonstrate the potential and limitations of machine learning in the field of materials science and material property modeling.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Fidelity Scheme for Accelerating 4D Finite Element Analysis for Mircoreactors

Next-generation microreactors are currently being designed to be operated terrestrial and extraterrestrial for remote surface power production. These systems will provide an alternative source of carbon-free energy that is versatile and can be utilized for various applications. These applications of microreactors have prompted the usage of high-fidelity unstructured finite element (FE) based approaches to provide time-dependent solutions for multiple physics fields. Computing these high-fidelity (4-D) solutions for multiple design iterations, physics fields, and transient events requires an immense computational cost. These high-fidelity solutions are computational expensive and the cost can be reduced through the implementation of less accurate low-fidelity solutions. Unlike the current fleet of commercial nuclear reactors, these next-gen systems present challenges due to the material and physical limitations required. Due to these constraints, the brute force technique of parameterizing important system characteristics determines whether a design meets the project objective. A system such as a nuclear reactor could have thousands of design parameters that affect system performance. In order to analyze the entire parameter space of such a complex system would require millions of CPU hours and countless design iterations. This costly approach is not practical due to regulatory and budget limitations. In this proposal, an approach that utilizes hybrid high-fidelity and low-fidelity FE models to reduce the computational cost of evaluating these applications in 4-D will be presented. The accuracy of the high-fidelity model and the computational efficiency of the low-fidelity model are taken advantage of to produce a solution that closely resembles the full order high-fidelity solution. By utilizing an unconverged coarse FE mesh, operation limits such as temperature, structural loading, etc., can be evaluated in an accelerated fashion and then can be spatially interpolated onto a finer mesh. The resulting error arising from the coarse mesh can be mitigated with a discrepancy function that actively quantifies and corrects the error in the coarse solution. This discrepancy function can be periodically updated with high-fidelity calculations across the temporal domain thus requiring less iterations on the fine mesh. As a result, the computational cost can be reduced for the evaluation and design iteration of microreactors. The proposal for this research contains three sections: Section 2 provides a literature review, Section 3 outlines the methodology for the proposed multi-fidelity scheme, and Section 4 displays preliminary results of the proposed research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1979

A form-factor method for determining the structure of distorted stars

The equilibrium equations of a uniformly rotating and tidally distorted star are reduced to the same form as for a spherical star except for the inclusion of two form factors. One factor, expressing the buoyancy effects of centrifugal force, is determined directly from the integrated structure variables. The other factor, expressing the deviation from spherical shape, is shown to be relatively insensitive to errors in the assumed shape, so that accurate solutions are obtained in spite of the use of an a priori shape. The method is employed by adding computations for the factors to an existing spherical model program. Upper Main Sequence models determined by this method compare closely with results from the double approximation method even for critical rotation and tidal distortion.

Wolfe, R. H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1988

An approach to optical structures control

The stabilization of a large, spaceborne Cassegrain telescope is examined. Modal gain factors and known characteristics of disturbances are used to determine which structural model affect line of sight (LOS) the most and are candidates for active control. THe approach is to: (1) actively control and maintain alignment of optical components; (2) place structural control actuators for optimum impact on the selected modes for active vibration control; and (3) feed back the best available estimate of LOS error for direct LOS control. Local analog loops are used for lower bandwidth control and multivariable digital control for lower bandwidth control. The control law is synthesized in the frequency domain using the characteristic gain approach. Robustness is measured by employing conicity, which is an outgrowth of the positivity approach to robust feedback system design. The feasibility of the design approach will be demonstrated by conducting a lab experiment on a structure similar to a scaled version of the telescope.

Iwens, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Ascent performance of an air-breathing horizontal-takeoff launch vehicle

Simulations are conducted to investigate a proposed NASA launch vehicle that is fully reusable, takes off horizontally, and uses airbreathing propulsion in a single stage. The propulsion model is based on a cycle analysis method, and the vehicle is assumed to be a rigid structure with distributed fuel, operating under a range of atmospheric conditions. The program to optimize simulated trajectories (POST) is modified to include a predictor-corrector guidance capability and then used to generate the trajectories. Significant errors are encountered during the unpowered coast phase due to uncertainty in the atmospheric density profile. The amount of ascent propellant needed is shown to be directly related to the thrust-vector angle and the location of the center of gravity of the vehicle because of the importance of aim-drag losses to total ideal velocity.

Powell, Richard W.↗