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At least 811 records · Page 45

Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH4 emissions

Abstract Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions ( $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 ) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH 4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 and temperature, suggesting larger $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH 4 production are thus needed to improve global CH 4 budget assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TransPlatformer

We propose TransPlatformer for translating toxicogenomics from one platform to another. Transcriptomic profiling has evolved through multiple generations of technology, from microarrays (e.g., Affymetrix, CodeLink) to more recent high-throughput sequencing and targeted panels such as S1500+. Microarrays, which dominated gene expression studies in the early 2000s, provided affordable and high-throughput transcript quantification but suffered from cross-hybridization issues and limited dynamic range . RNA-Seq, introduced in the late 2000s, revolutionized transcriptomics by enabling unbiased and comprehensive gene expression analysis, albeit at higher costs and computational demands . Despite advances, many studies rely on historical microarray data, necessitating the translation of legacy data into modern platforms to ensure continuity and comparability. This translation is complicated by factors such as platform-specific probe design, differences in transcript coverage, and batch effects . Existing methods for cross-platform mapping include statistical normalization, machine learning models, and biological anchoring approaches. The ability to translate transcriptomic data between platforms has broad implications, including enhanced meta-analyses, improved toxicological modeling, and better integration of historical datasets with contemporary research. TransPlatformer seeks to contribute to this effort by evaluating translation methodologies and proposing novel strategies to improve cross-platform gene expression harmonization. In this repository there are code examples for TransPlatformer implementation

Cong, Guojing↗

Cation Data for the East River Watershed, Colorado (2014-2025)

This data package contains mean values for cation concentration for water samples taken from the East River Watershed in Colorado. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) has been used to measure the concentrations of elements of interest simultaneously for the East River Watershed, Colorado groundwater and surface water samples to inform insights on the biogeochemistry processes within the watershed. The East River is part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (WFSFA) located in the Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. For samples collected prior to 06-16-2021, the instrumentation, Elan DRC II, PerkinElmer SCIEX, automatically switches among the three models necessary to analyze all 37 elements. These 37 elements include: (1) Lithium (Li), Beryllium (Be), Boron (B), Sodium (Na), Magnesium (Mg), Aluminium (Al), Silicon (Si), Phosphorus (P), Titanium (Ti), Cobalt (Co), Nickel (Ni), Copper (Cu), Zinc (Zn), Germanium (Ge), Arsenic (As), Rubidium (Rb), Strontium (Sr), Zirconium (Zr), Molybdenum (Mo), Silver (Ag), Cadmium (Cd), Tin (Sn), Antimony (Sb), Caesium (Cs), Barium (Ba), Europium (Eu), Lead (Pb), Thorium (Th), Uranium (U) using standard model, argon Ar as reaction gas, (2) Potassium (K), Calcium (Ca), Vanadium (V), Chromium (Cr), Manganese (Mn), Iron (Fe) using dynamic reaction cell (DRC) model, ammonia NH3 as reaction gas, and (3) Phosphorus (P) and Selenium (Se) using DRC model, oxygen O2 as reaction gas. Note for the samples with higher concentrations of chloride (Cl-), asenic (As) concentrations were analysed with DRC model (oxygen O2 as reaction gas) to avoid the interference of chloride. For samples collected on and after 06-16-2021, an advanced Agilent 8900 triple quadrupole inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry system (Agilent 8900 QQQ ICP-MS, Agilent Technologies) has been used to measure the concentrations of interested 36 elements simultaneously for environmental samples, including (1) Lithium (Li), Beryllium (Be) and Boron (B) using standard no gas mode, (2) Sodium (Na), Magnesium (Mg), Aluminium (Al) Phosphorus (P), Potassium (K), Chromium (Cr), Manganese (Mn), Iron (Fe), Cobalt (Co), Nickel (Ni), Copper (Cu), Zinc (Zn), Germanium (Ge), Arsenic (As), Rubidium (Rb), Strontium (Sr), Zirconium (Zr), Molybdenum (Mo), Silver (Ag), Cadmium (Cd), Tin (Sn), Antimony (Sb), Cesium (Cs), Barium (Ba), Europium (Eu), Lead (Pb), Thorium (Th) and Uranium (U) using standard helium (He) collision mode, (3) Titanium (Ti) and Vanadium (V) using high Energy (HEHe) helium (He) collision mode, and (4) Silicon (Si), Calcium (Ca) and Selenium (Se) using standard H2 reaction mode. All samples were prepared/diluted with 2% (v/v) ultrapure nitric acid in Milli-Q water (18.2 mega ohm-cm), and analyzed under a rigorous quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) process. This data package contains (1) a zip file (cation_data_2014_2025.zip) containing a total of 5,849 files: 5.848 data files of cation data from across the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA) which is reported in .csv files per location and a locations.csv (1 file) with latitude and longitude for each location; (2) a file-level metadata (v6_20260901_flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; (3) a data dictionary (v6_20260901_dd.csv) file that contains terms/column_headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type; (4) PDF and docx files for the detemination of Method Detection Limits (MDLs) for ICP-MS PerkinElmer DRC II instrumentation (Detemination_of_Method_Detection_Limits__MDLs__for_ICP_MS__PerkinElmer_Elan_DRC_II__LBL_Bldg74_Lab214D) for samples before November 2021; (5) PDF and docx files for the determination of MDLs for ICP-MS Agilent 8900 QQQ instrumentation (ICP_MS_Analysis_detection_limits_and_QA_QC_WenmingDong_updated_2026-08-06) for samples November 2021 and onward. Missing values within the anion data files are noted as either "-9999" or "0.0" for not detectable (N.D.) data. There are a total of 113 locations containing cation data. Update on 2021-04-11: Added Detemination of Method Detection Limits (MDLs) for ICP-MS document, which can be accessed as a PDF or with Microsoft Word. Update on 2022-06-10: versioned updates to this dataset was made along with these changes: (1) updated cation data for all locations up to 2021-12-31, (2) removal of units from column headers in datafiles, (3) added row underneath headers to contain units of variables, (4) removed suffix and prefix on two variables (“aqberylliumion_asberyllium” and “aqlithiumion_aslithium”), (5) added -9999 for empty numerical cells, and (6) the addition of the file-level metadata (flmd.csv) and data dictionary (dd.csv) were added to comply with the File-Level Metadata Reporting Format. Update on 2022-09-09: Updates were made to reporting format specific files (file-level metadata and data dictionary) to correct swapped file names, add additional details on metadata descriptions on both files, add a header_row column to enable parsing, and add version number and date to file names (v2_20220909_flmd.csv and v2_20220909_dd.csv). Update on 2023-08-08: Updates were made to both the data files and reporting format specific files. New available anion data was added, up until 2023-01-05. The file level metadata and data dictionary files were updated to reflect the additional data added. Update on 2024-03-11: Updates were made to both the data files and reporting format specific files. New available anion data was added, up until 2023-10-16. Further, revisions to the data files were made to remove incorrect data points (from 1970 and 2001). The reporting format specific files were updated to reflect the additional data added. Updated versions of the PDF and docx files for determination of MDLs for ICP-MS data were added to this dataset for samples starting in November 2021. Update on 2025-05-15: Updates were made to both the data files and reporting format specific files. New available cation data was added, up until the end of WY2024 (September 30, 2024). International Generic Sample Numbers (IGSNs), when registered, were added to the data files. The reporting format specific files were updated to reflect the additional data added. Update on 2026-09-01: Updates were made to both the data files and reporting format specific files. New available cation data was added, up until the end of WY2025 (September 30, 2025). Updated versions, as of 2026-08-06, of the PDF and docx files for determination of MDLs for ICP-MS data were added to this dataset for samples starting in November 2021.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low-frequency oscillations in radiative-convective systems. Part 2: An idealized model

A simple model is used to examine the hypothesis that nonlinear interactions among atmospheric radiation, cumulus convection, and the surface moisture flux can result in a stationary, low-frequency (30-60 day period) oscillating heat source in the tropical atmosphere. The model produces low-frequency oscillations of temperature, moisture, and precipitation. The mechanism that produces these oscillations is identified through analyses of the model and its results. The relevance of this mechanism to understand the observed Madden-Julian oscillation in the tropical atmosphere over the Indian and western Pacific Oceans is discussed.

Hu, QI↗

Programmatic effects of utilizing various space tug options

The results are summarized of the computerized (DORCA) analyses of a number of NASA/Non-NASA and DoD payload mission models that have been used in conjunction with studies of the Space Transportation System (STS). The first analysis performed was on the 1971 NASA/Non-NASA and DoD mission models. Subsequent to that, analyses of the June 1972 excursion to the 1971 NASA/Non-NASA mission models were performed. The mission models have two basic versions; i.e., one employing expendable payloads and another employing a best mix of expendable and reusable payloads. Both versions of the models have the same payload deployment schedule. However, in the best mix version, payloads are retrieved from orbit and whenever possible, refurbished payloads are deployed. The analyses were performed to determine the relative merits to different Tug configurations and of Tug combinations employed in several phased development schemes.

Stricker, L. T.↗

Low Speed Analysis of Mission Adaptive Flaps on a High Speed Civil Transport Configuration

Thin-layer Navier-Stokes analyses were done on a high speed civil transport configuration with mission adaptive leading-edge flaps. The flow conditions simulated were Mach = 0.22 and Reynolds number of 4.27 million for angles-of-attack ranging from 0 to 18 degrees. Two turbulence closure models were used. Analyses were done exclusively with the Baldwin-Lomax turbulence model at low angle-of-attack conditions. At high angles-of-attack where considerable flow separation and vortices occurred the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model was also considered. The effects of flow transition were studied. Predicted aerodynamic forces, moment, and pressure are compared to experimental data obtained in the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel at NASA Langley. The forces and moments correlated well with experimental data in terms of trends. Drag and pitching moment were consistently underpredicted. Predicted surface pressures compared well with experiment at low angles-of-attack. Above 10 angle-of-attack the pressure comparisons were not as favorable. The two turbulent models affected the pressures on the flap considerably and neither produced correct results at the high angles-of-attack.

Lessard, Victor R.↗

Implications of Upwells as Hydrodynamic Jets in a Pulse Jet Mixed System

This report evaluates the physics of the upwell flow in pulse jet mixed systems in the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Although the initial downward flow and radial flow from pulse jet mixers (PJMs) has been analyzed in some detail, the upwells have received considerably less attention despite having significant implications for vessel mixing. Do the upwells behave like jets? How do the upwells scale? When will the central upwell breakthrough? What proportion of the vessel is blended by the upwells themselves? Indeed, how the physics of the central upwell is affected by multiple PJMs (e.g., six in the proposed mixing vessels), non-Newtonian rheology, and significant multicomponent solids loadings remain unexplored. The central upwell must satisfy several criteria to be considered a free jet. First, it must travel for several diameters in a nearly constant direction. Second, its velocity must decay with the inverse of elevation. Third, it should have an approximately Gaussian profile. Fourth, the influence of surface or body forces must be negligible. A combination of historical data in a 12.75 ft test vessel, newly analyzed data from the 8 ft test vessel, and conservation of momentum arguments derived specifically for PJM operating conditions demonstrate that the central upwell satisfies these criteria where vigorous breakthrough is achieved. An essential feature of scaling from one vessel to the next is the requirement that the underlying physics does not change adversely. One may have confidence in scaling if (1) correlations and formulas capture the relevant physics; (2) the underlying physics does not change from the conditions under which it was developed to the conditions of interest; (3) all factors relevant to scaling have been incorporated, including flow, material, and geometric considerations; and (4) the uncertainty in the relationships is sufficiently narrow to meet required specifications. Although the central upwell satisfies these criteria when vigorous breakthrough is achieved, not all available data follow the free jet profile for the central upwell, particularly at lower nozzle velocities. Alternative flow regimes are considered and new models for cloud height, “cavern height,” and the rate of jet penetration (jet celerity) are benchmarked against data to anchor scaling analyses. This analytical modeling effort to provide a technical basis for scaling PJM mixed vessels has significant implications for vessel mixing, because jet physics underlies “cavern” height, cloud height, and the volume of mixing considerations. A new four-parameter cloud height model compares favorably to experimental results. This model is predictive of breakthrough in 8 ft vessel tests with the two-part simulant. Analysis of the upwell in the presence of yield stresses finds evidence of expanding turbulent jets, confined turbulent jets, and confined laminar flows. For each, the critical elevation at which jet momentum depletes is predicted, which compare favorably to experimental cavern height data. Partially coupled momentum and energy balances suggest that these are limiting cases of a gradual transition from a turbulent expanding flow to a confined laminar flow. This analysis of the central upwell alone lays essential groundwork for complete analysis of mode three mixing (i.e., breakthrough with slow peripheral mixing). Consideration of jet celerity shows that the rate of jet penetration is a governing consideration in breakthrough to the surface. Estimates of the volume of mixing are presented. This analysis shows that flow along the vessel wall is sluggish such that the central upwell governs the volume of mixing. This analysis of the central upwell alone lays essential groundwork for complete analysis of mode three mixing and estimates of hydrogen release rates from first principles.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Staghorn: An Automated Large-Scale Distributed System Analysis Platform

Conducting experiments on large-scale distributed computing systems is becoming significantly easier with the assistance of emulation. Researchers can now create a model of a distributed computing environment and then generate a virtual, laboratory copy of the entire system composed of potentially thousands of virtual machines, switches, and software. The use of real software, running at clock rate in full virtual machines, allows experiments to produce meaningful results without necessitating a full understanding of all model components. However, the ability to inspect and modify elements within these models is bound by the limitation that such modifications must compete with the model, either running in or alongside it. This inhibits entire classes of analyses from being conducted upon these models. We developed a mechanism to snapshot an entire emulation-based model as it is running. This allows us to \freeze time" and subsequently fork execution, replay execution, modify arbitrary parts of the model, or deeply explore the model. This snapshot includes capturing packets in transit and other input/output state along with the running virtual machines. We were able to build this system in Linux using Open vSwitch and Kernel Virtual Machines on top of Sandia's emulation platform Firewheel. This primitive opens the door to numerous subsequent analyses on models, including state space exploration, debugging distributed systems, performance optimizations, improved training environments, and improved experiment repeatability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Adaptive Protection and Validated Models to Enable Deployment of High Penetrations of Solar PV (PV-MOD)

The availability and validation of various PV models in commercial tools differ, with some models not yet thoroughly validated for advanced inverter functionalities and reliable performance under weak system conditions. Many existing models do not fully incorporate new inverter control functions, which can affect system stability. The increasing deployment of solar PV and other inverter-based resources (IBRs), including distributed energy resources (DERs), is influencing the reliable operation of protection schemes in distribution systems and microgrids. Emerging adaptive protection schemes (APS) offer new opportunities for protecting these systems during varying configurations and DER operating conditions, though their demonstration and validation remain limited. Adaptive protection schemes face similar challenges, as they are typically designed for specific configurations. There is a growing need for tools and methodologies to streamline the deployment of adaptive protection for safe and reliable DER integration. The project main objective was to develop and validate high-fidelity generic models of solar PV facilities for stability, protection, EMT, and QSTS analyses. This objective was achieved, and these models can now be integrated into commercial software tools, enabling utilities, vendors, and developers to study high-penetration PV systems more confidently. The project also demonstrated advanced applications of these models, including the design and deployment of adaptive protection schemes in high-penetration field applications and microgrids, supporting grid safety and reliability. Several milestones were reached by the end of the project. A sophisticated inverter test plan was developed, and inverters representative of the North American marketplace were selected. EPRI and NREL tested various inverters, conforming to IEEE standards. Improvements were made to existing generic models of IBR units, IBR plants, and aggregated feeders for various analyses. The first generic electromagnetic transient (EMT) model for a solar PV plant was developed, conforming to IEEE Std 2800™-2022 and validated against laboratory measurements of a 2.2 MVA large-scale battery energy storage system (BESS) inverter. That model was then used to produce reference responses illustrating examples of validated and verified IBR plant models that pass or fail tests for technical minimum capability and performance as specified in the IEEE standard. The developed, tested, and validated generic models can be used for transmission planning, stability assessments, expansion planning, and evaluating potential future IBR interconnection requirements. They can also support interconnection screens and conformity assessments of IBR plants, including solar PV. The project significantly contributed to the ongoing standardization and model-based representation and verification of IBR responses. The project further addressed challenges of common distribution protection schemes with increasing deployment of DER by developing, validating, and demonstrating adaptive protection schemes (APS) that can improve the reliable and safe integration of DER into distribution systems. New APS were designed using improved DER models for three common distribution systems: a radial feeder, a meshed network, and a microgrid. Modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing of the APS were conducted, successfully showing their effectiveness and selectivity. Proof-of-concept field demonstration was achieved for two APS, i.e., one on a radial feeder and another one in a microgrid. Field demonstration could not be achieved for the APS on a meshed network, primarily due apprehension of one utility partner and also due to limited access to the protective algorithms in the network protectors. Guidelines developed from the lessons learned in the project lay out the general process followed in the design, installation, and commissioning of APS for various distribution systems. Distribution utility partners’ apprehension about field demonstration of the new APS were addressed—with varying success—by taking a stepped risk-management approach of modeling of a wide range of sensitivities first, performing in-depth proof-of-concept testing in the laboratory including HIL next, and finally deliberately implementing and commissioning the actual protection equipment and algorithms into parts of—or in parallel operation to—the three real distribution systems. Future work should include pilot projects that further show the acceptable performance of the developed APS before these schemes be rolled out more widely. Inclusion of both utility and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in future projects could increase chances of successful field demonstration. Despite challenges in achieving the field demonstration goal of the project for all three APS, the research significantly contributed to the innovation of adaptive protection solutions for scalable and reliable DER integration into distribution systems. This project significantly enhances the understanding of the impact of using appropriate inverter models on distribution and transmission (T&D) systems. By addressing the limitations of existing generic models, the project introduces high-fidelity models for stability, protection, electromagnetic transient (EMT), and quasi-static time series (QSTS) analyses. These models, integrated into commercial software tools, enable utilities, vendors, and developers to confidently study high-penetration PV systems. The project also demonstrates advanced applications, including adaptive protection schemes (APS) for distribution systems and microgrids, ensuring grid safety and reliability. The technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of the methods are evident through the development and validation of sophisticated inverter test plans and the selection of representative inverters. Testing by EPRI and NREL on retail, commercial, and utility-scale inverters, conforming to IEEE standards, underscores the robustness of the models. Improvements to existing generic models for various analyses further enhance their validity and applicability. The project also identifies gaps in common distribution protection schemes and designed new APS using improved DER models, demonstrating their effectiveness through modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing. The project’s benefits to the public are manifold. By advancing the standardization and model-based representation of IBR response, it supports transmission planning, stability assessments, and future IBR interconnection requirements. The generic models can facilitate better communication between transmission planners and developers, supporting expected IBR plant capability and performance. Additionally, the development of APS for radial feeders, meshed networks, and microgrids supports the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems, enhancing grid reliability and safety. The project’s emphasis on thorough testing and simplicity in design ensures practical and scalable solutions for DER integration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Models Extracted from Text for System-Software Safety Analyses

This presentation describes extraction and integration of requirements information and safety information in visualizations to support early review of completeness, correctness, and consistency of lengthy and diverse system safety analyses. Software tools have been developed and extended to perform the following tasks: 1) extract model parts and safety information from text in interface requirements documents, failure modes and effects analyses and hazard reports; 2) map and integrate the information to develop system architecture models and visualizations for safety analysts; and 3) provide model output to support virtual system integration testing. This presentation illustrates the methods and products with a rocket motor initiation case.

Malin, Jane T.↗

System cost performance analysis (study 2.3). Volume 1: Executive summary

A study is described which was initiated to identify and quantify the interrelationships between and within the performance, safety, cost, and schedule parameters for unmanned, automated payload programs. The result of the investigation was a systems cost/performance model which was implemented as a digital computer program and could be used to perform initial program planning, cost/performance tradeoffs, and sensitivity analyses for mission model and advanced payload studies. Program objectives and results are described briefly.

Campbell, B. H.↗

Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part I: Effects of Random Error

Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated.

Duda, David P.↗

Thermal Integration of a Liquid Acquisition Device into a Cryogenic Feed System

Primary objectives of this effort were to define the following: (1) Approaches for quantification of the accumulation of thermal energy within a capillary screen liquid acquisition device (LAD) for a lunar lander upper stage during periods of up to 210 days on the lunar surface, (2) techniques for mitigating heat entrapment, and (3) perform initial testing, data evaluation. The technical effort was divided into the following categories: (1) Detailed thermal modeling of the LAD/feed system interactions using both COMSOL computational fluid device and standard codes, (2) FLOW-3D modeling of bulk liquid to provide interfacing conditions for the LAD thermal modeling, (3) condensation conditioning of capillary screens to stabilize surface tension retention capability, and (4) subscale testing of an integrated LAD/feed system. Substantial progress was achieved in the following technical areas: (1) Thermal modeling and experimental approaches for evaluating integrated cryogen LAD/feed systems, at both the system and component levels, (2) reduced gravity pressure control analyses, (3) analytical modeling and testing for capillary screen conditioning using condensation and wicking, and (4) development of rapid turnaround testing techniques for evaluating LAD/feed system thermal and fluid integration. A comprehensive effort, participants included a diverse cross section of representatives from academia, contractors, and multiple Marshall Space Flight Center organizations.

Hastings, L. J.↗

Monte Carlo simulations for generic granite repository studies

In a collaborative study between Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the DOE-NE Office of Fuel Cycle Technologies Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) Campaign project, we have conducted preliminary system-level analyses to support the development of a long-term strategy for geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste. A general modeling framework consisting of a near- and a far-field submodel for a granite GDSE was developed. A representative far-field transport model for a generic granite repository was merged with an integrated systems (GoldSim) near-field model. Integrated Monte Carlo model runs with the combined near- and farfield transport models were performed, and the parameter sensitivities were evaluated for the combined system. In addition, a sub-set of radionuclides that are potentially important to repository performance were identified and evaluated for a series of model runs. The analyses were conducted with different waste inventory scenarios. Analyses were also conducted for different repository radionuelide release scenarios. While the results to date are for a generic granite repository, the work establishes the method to be used in the future to provide guidance on the development of strategy for long-term disposal of high-level radioactive waste in a granite repository.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Statistical modeling support for calibration of a multiphysics model of subcooled boiling flows

Nuclear reactor system analyses rely on multiple complex models which describe the physics of reactor neutronics, thermal hydraulics, structural mechanics, coolant physico-chemistry, etc. Such coupled multiphysics models require extensive calibration and validation before they can be used in practical system safety study and/or design/technology optimization. This paper presents an application of statistical modeling and Bayesian inference in calibrating an example multiphysics model of subcooled boiling flows which is widely used in reactor thermal hydraulic analysis. The presence of complex coupling of physics in such a model together with the large number of model inputs, parameters and multidimensional outputs poses significant challenge to the model calibration method. However, the method proposed in this work is shown to be able to overcome these difficulties while allowing data (observation) uncertainty and model inadequacy to be taken into consideration. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Analysis of Potential Leakage Pathways and Mineralization within Caprocks for Geologic Storage of CO 2

We used a multifaceted approach to investigate the nature of caprocks above, and the interface between, reservoir-quality rocks that might serve as targets for carbon storage. Fieldwork in southeastern Utah examined the regional- to m-scale nature of faults and fractures across the sedimentiological interfaces. We also used microscopic analyses and mechanical modeling to examine the question as to how the contacts between units interact, and how fractures may allow fluids to move from reservoirs to caprock. Regional-­scale analyses using ASTER data enabled us to identify location of alteration, which led to site-­specific studies of deformation and fluid flow. In the Jurassic Carmel Formation, a seal for the Navajo Sandstone, we evaluated mesoscale variability in fracture density and morphology and variability in elastic moduli in the Jurassic Carmel Formation, a proposed seal to the underlying Navajo Sandstone for CO 2 geosequestration. By combining mechano-stratigraphic outcrop observations with elastic moduli derived from wireline log data, we characterize the variability in fracture pattern and morphology with the observed variability in rock strength within this heterolithic top seal. Outcrop inventories of discontinuities show fracture densities decrease as bed thickness increases and fracture propagation morphology across lithologic interfaces vary with changing interface type. Dynamic elastic moduli, calculated from wireline log data, show that Young’s modulus varies by up to 40 GPa across depositional interfaces, and by an average of 3 GPa across the reservoir/seal interface. We expect that the mesoscale changes in rock strength will affect the distributions of localized stress and thereby influence fracture propagation and fluid flow behavior within the seal. These data provide a means to closely tie outcrop observations to those derived from subsurface data and estimates of subsurface rock strength. We also studied damage zones associated normal faults in the Permian Cedar Mesa Sandstone, southeastern Utah. These faults are characterized by a single slip surfaces and damage zones containing deformation bands, veins, and joints. Field observations include crosscutting relationships, permeability increase, rock strength decrease, and ultraviolet light induced mineral fluorescence within the damage zone. These field observations combined with the interpreted paragenetic sequence from petrographic analysis, suggests a deformation history of reactivation and several mineralization events in an otherwise low-permeability fault. All deformation bands and veins fluoresce under ultraviolet light, suggesting connectivity and a shared mineralization history. Pre-­existing deformation features act as loci for younger deformation and mineralization events, this fault and its damage zone illustrate the importance of the fault damage zone to subsurface fluid flow. We model a simplified stress history in order to understand the importance of rock properties and magnitude of tectonic stress on the deformation features within the damage zone. The moderate confining pressures, possible variations in pore pressure, and the porous, fine-­grained nature of the Cedar Mesa Sandstone results in a fault damage zone characterized by enhanced permeability, subsurface fluid flow, and mineralization. Structural setting greatly influences fracture spacing and orientation. Three structural settings were examined and include fault proximity, a fold limb of constant dip, and a setting proximal to the syncline hinge. Fracture spacing and dominant fracture orientation vary at each setting and distinctions between regional and local paleo-stress directions can be made. Joints on the fold limb strike normal to the fold axis/bedding and are interpreted to be sub-parallel to the maximum regional paleo-stress direction as there is no fold related strain. Joints proximal to faults and the syncline hinge may have formed under local stress conditions associated with folding and faulting, and in some cases, are perpendicular to the maximum regional paleo-stress direction. Macroscale analyses of the Iron Wash fault, which cuts most of the stratigraphy of the reservoir- seal analogs, reveals that seal bypass occurs along faults with mixed lithologic composition. While portions of the fault may be effective seals, when modeled as a whole the fault zone cannot support a high CO 2 column. We adapted oil-field methods to calculate column heights and sealing capacities. Examination of the burial and tectonic histories of the rocks, coupled with field- and micro-­scale studies, allow us to examine the potential for seal failure using basic rock mechanics failure analyses. These studies reveal that the sealing lithologies experienced multiple episodes of deformation that resulted in numerous fractures and small faults. In a stress state based on burial history and overburden loads, we show that most of the seals could fail with normal to slightly excess pore pressures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling the processes of soil moisture in regulating microbial and carbon-nitrogen cycling

Soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles and their complex responses to hydro-climatic forcing have gained increasing attention. While the temperature effects have been intensively studied, soil moisture response functions (SMRFs) are not well documented for various microbial and enzymatic processes due to the difficulties in directly measuring and differentiating the moisture effects on various processes. In this work we extended our C-only Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model to the C-N coupled MEND model with flexible element stoichiometry. Our model calibration showed good agreement between simulated and observed C:N ratios in soil organic matter and microbial biomass, as well as the ammonium and nitrate concentrations. We show that the selection of SMRFs for specific biogeochemical processes could result in significant differences in model simulated microbial and C-N processes. In particular, it is essential to account for the soil moisture effects on microbial dormancy and resuscitation, as the changes in microbial physiology under favorable or stressful conditions will exert strong controls on soil C and N dynamics. We also advocate the utilization of dynamic (time-variant) data (e.g., litter input, N deposition, soil temperature and moisture), instead of time-invariant data, to drive model simulations and analyses. Dynamic forcing data (particularly dynamic soil moisture) better represent the real-world climate and environmental conditions, which could facilitate more realistic modeling and understanding of soil C and nutrient cycling in a changing world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The virtual front end: Towards better management of solid geometric data

Throughout the last decade, Computer Aided Design was seen as a Great Promise. Much was accomplished, but that pales in comparison with what was promised. Ultimate achievement has always seemed just a step away. During the era of the early turnkey system, the one step was limited by modeling geometry through a wire frame. Besides being cumbersome to deal with in three dimensions, it was continually shown that a wire frame is ambiguous. This made the modeling of geometry for engineering purposes even more frustrating. The fundamentals of computer aided engineering design rest on the ability to do various analyses. Presently, solid modeling is taking the mechanical engineering CAD world by storm. There are no fewer than 20 solid modeling packages around the world, and more appearing with each vendor show. The question of integration, that is, the combination of elements of the CAD process into unified and easily usable design tools still exists.

Charlesworth, W. W.↗