Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “market data”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 811 records · Page 45

Generator Interconnection Costs to the Transmission System in non-ISO Balancing Authorities [Slides]

Electric transmission system operators—including Independent System Operators (ISOs), Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs), and utilities—require proposed power plants to undergo a series of interconnection studies before connecting to the grid. These studies assess what transmission upgrades or new infrastructure may be necessary and assign the associated costs to the project. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has compiled, aggregated, and cleaned interconnection cost data, originally for ISOs/RTOs, and now for five non-ISO Balancing Authorities: PacifiCorp, Bonneville Power Authority, Duke Energy Progress, Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Florida. Insufficient transparency in interconnection cost data may contribute to rapidly expanding interconnection queues, with active queue capacities tripling between 2020 and 2024 in the studied BAs. Most projects withdraw after receiving high interconnection cost estimates. Interconnection costs have increased since the early 2000s, with average costs for "complete" projects reaching $194/kW between 2018 and 2024. Active queue projects and withdrawn projects incur substantially higher costs, primarily due to rising network upgrade costs. Recent interconnection costs in non-ISO balancing authorities are higher than in ISO regions, potentially due to a greater willingness to pay among developers. Utility-scale solar, wind, and storage projects have interconnection costs that exceed those for natural gas. However, when focusing on projects that do not withdraw from the queue, the interconnection costs for these technologies are more similar to natural gas projects. Other key findings include: (1) Larger generation projects benefit from lower proportional interconnection costs, (2) capacity transmission service (NRIS) often requires additional network investments, and (3) projects with high network upgrade costs are often clustered geographically. The dataset includes results from 2,104 interconnection studies conducted between 2000 and 2024, covering projects that are operational, withdrawn, or still progressing through the study process. The Excel file contains (a) the complete project-level interconnection cost dataset, and (b) seven additional tabs summarizing cost metrics across dimensions such as time, market structure, cost category (point of interconnection vs. broader network upgrades), fuel type, service type (ERIS vs. NRIS), generator size, and geography.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Design and Demonstration of a NH3-Fueled Two-Stroke Uniflow Engine for Greenhouse Gas Reduction

The maritime shipping industry is growing increasingly interested in both low and non-carbon-containing fuels to meet future greenhouse gas emission targets. Specifically of interest is ammonia, as it has a relatively high volumetric energy density compared to other future fuels, such as hydrogen, making it more economical to transport. The robust engine architecture of low-speed two-stroke marine engines makes them an ideal candidate for ammonia fuel, overcoming many of the issues surrounding its poor ignitability and low flame speed. If emissions and fueling system challenges can be addressed, retrofits of current low-speed two-stroke dual-fuel engines represent a viable pathway for bringing ammonia engines to market. This study explores these technical hurdles by describing the design, analysis, and experimental validation of a single cylinder research engine converted to operate on ammonia fuel. The engine is a reduced-scale uniflow two-stroke marine engine with two previous hardware configurations available – diesel and high-pressure CNG dual-fuel. A concept study was used to evaluate possible ammonia-fueled engine architectures and the associated tradeoffs and design considerations. With the chosen architecture, low-pressure dual fuel, 1D and 3D analysis tools were used to inform hardware selection and to determine hardware configurations which minimized ammonia-slip. In addition to these considerations the hardware and engine configuration were designed to provide a versatile and robust testing platform. This includes options to test both gaseous and liquid ammonia injection, as well as a wide range of performance parameters such as AFR, swirl, valve timing, SOI, and many others. Design constraints imposed by the existing engine hardware necessitated an iterative loop between design and analysis toolsets, ultimately converging on a final design for the ammonia-conversion hardware. The engine was rebuilt with the new hardware and evaluated in an engine test cell. A new control strategy developed and flashed onto a prototyping electronic control unit allowed for full control over all engine parameters. An initial calibration was developed, providing test data for validation of the engine 1D and 3D models. The impact of the design choices on engine operability and the ability to meet program targets is discussed as well as opportunities for further optimization of the ammonia-conversion hardware, informed by the validated models.

Kaul, Brian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000184813620)↗

Graph-based featurization methods for classifying small molecule compounds

For over a decade, drug-induced liver injury (DILI) has posed significant drawbacks in the synthesis and development of drugs and remains a consequential concern. With finite success within the existing preclinical models, DILI is one of the main causes of drug withdrawal or termination from the market. Particularly, this withdrawal occurs during the late stages of drug development (Kullak-Ublick, 2017). Since DILI is difficult to diagnose and treat, it has become an obstacle in the drug production market that in turn affects clinicians, pharmaceutical companies, and consumers. We propose a method for learning features of DILI-positive drugs based on the graphical relationships and patterns they possess within a network of biological databases. We also train various statistical and machine learning models on these learned features in order to classify the drugs as DILI-positive or negative. Our methods include Random Forest, Neural networks, and logistic regression classification. We utilize labeled DILI-positive and DILI-negative datasets, which were developed by the FDA and the National center for toxicological research, as well as additional literature datasets (Thakkar, 2020) in order to validate our results and assess our featurization and model accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Product Defect Detection System: SYSM- 5620 Final Project

Retail sales is a growing market estimated to up to seven percent year over year. With this growing market there is also a trend in growing rate of retail returns, estimated just last year at $\$$850 billion. Retail stores must ensure that products available for purchase remain safe, undamaged, and acceptable to customers throughout their time in the store. This job exists regardless of the specific solution used because stores are always responsible for preventing damaged or defective products from reaching customers and when they fail to this is categorized under operation inefficiencies which accounts for an estimated $\$$12 billion in returns. When defective items remain on the sales floor, stores may experience increased returns, reduced customer satisfaction, loss of customer trust, and potential safety concerns depending on the product type. As a result, the core job to be done is to identify defective products quickly, remove them from the sales floor before they are purchased, and preserve useful information about the defect so that the store can improve its handling, stocking, and supplier coordination over time. The need for a more reliable process is especially important in high volume retail environments where employees manage large numbers of products across many aisles, shelves, and storage areas. In these settings, manual inspection alone can be inconsistent and difficult to sustain at the individual item level. At the same time, broader retail trends continue to emphasize operational efficiency, product visibility, and improved customer experience, creating an opportunity for more automated and data driven defect detection methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

EV Charging Infrastructure Energization An Overview of Approaches for Simplifying and Accelerating Timelines to Processing EV Charging Load Service Requests

The United States has seen significant growth in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, leading to increased demand for EV charging infrastructure. Over the past decade, EV charging infrastructure site developers, site hosts, and electric distribution utilities have navigated the process to integrate chargers onto the electric grid. Site developers and site hosts have raised the alarm that the integration process for high-powered EV charging projects does not meet the needs of the EV market for timeliness or cost. High-powered charging stations typically require a load service request or an agreement with the local utility to connect to the grid. The process of energizing a new high-powered charging site can be complex and time-consuming, often taking up to 2 years. This timeline is the result of current utility energization processes having been designed for construction projects that take longer to build (i.e., buildings). The specific challenges stem from various factors, including compartmentalization in application processes, the integration of EV charging process approvals with other distributed energy resources (DERs), and the need to ensure grid reliability. The energization process needs to evolve to meet the growing demand for high-powered EV charging. This white paper compiles information gathered through various conversations with key stakeholders, including utilities, utility regulators, EV charging operators, site developers, and authorities having jurisdiction (AHJ) as well as through an extensive literature review. This document identifies the challenges and provides potential solutions to streamline the process of connecting EV charging infrastructure to the power grid in the United States, serving as a starting point for future conversations around these solutions. The solutions noted in this white paper require collaborative efforts among utilities, regulators, and EV charging infrastructure developers to streamline the grid connection process for EV charging infrastructure. They are broadly organized into four areas: 1. Increase data access and transparency: Develop automated load service request tools, integrate hosting capacity and load service request analyses, incorporate EV adoption forecasts, and provide transparency on the processing queue. 2. Improve energization processes and timing: Create fast-track options based on prescreening criteria, provide flexibility or phased approvals in the load service request/interconnection process, build internal knowledge within utilities about EV charging technologies, and provide standardized workforce training. 3. Promote economic efficiency: Right size distribution components to accurately reflect the load requirements of EV charging infrastructure, make proactive investments in grid infrastructure based on EV adoption forecasts and growth projections, and consider energy equity and environmental justice factors such as equitable access to EV charging when planning infrastructure. 4. Improve grid reliability and resilience: Use load management/power control systems (PCS) at EV charging stations, adopt and implement harmonized standards for communication protocols and information models between the EV charging and grid control infrastructure, and address cybersecurity considerations by implementing robust security measures and standards for EV charging infrastructure—with particular emphasis on clarifying the security requirements for the interface to the grid. The objective of the solutions proposed in this white paper is to accelerate the timeline and decrease costs associated with connecting EV charging infrastructure to the grid. Electric utilities, utility regulators, EV charging infrastructure developers, and site hosts will first need to understand which solutions are available in their service territory, and if warranted, which combination of solutions would support their specific needs. Through the successful implementations of solutions at scale detailed here, industry will demonstrate a new and innovative ecosystem where timely deployment and energization of EV charging infrastructure with greater grid resiliency and reliability is a reality.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

ComStock™ 2024 Release 1 [SWR-19-33 and SWR-20-32]

ComStock™ is an NREL model of the U.S. commercial building stock. The model takes some building characteristics from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Commercial Prototype Building Models and Commercial Reference Building. However, unlike many other building stock models, ComStock also combines these with a variety of additional public- and private-sector data sets. Collectively, this information provides high-fidelity building stock representation with a realistic diversity of building characteristics. This repository contains the source code used to build and execute ComStock models, including upgrade scenarios. In addition, the sampling of buildings characteristics used for the initial ComStock (V1.0) release is provided. The ComStock model is under active calibration and development, which is publicly visible on this repository. Execution of the ComStock workflow is managed through the buildstockbatch repository, a shared asset of ResStock™ and ComStock™ , specifically developed to scale to execution of tens of millions of simulations through multiple infrastructure providers. The dataset output from the initial ComStock (V1.0) release can be found at the accompanying ComStock data viewer website and additional information about ComStock found on the NREL Buildings Website. For more details about ongoing model development please consult the End Use Load Profiles website. ComStock is a direct result of the NREL residential stock modeling tool ResStock™ (recipient of a R&D100 award) and was inspired by the high-fidelity solar & storage adoption model dGen™. Additionally, this tool would not be possible without the decades of work undertaken by the OpenStudio® and EnergyPlus® visionaries and contributors, significant funding, feedback and support from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, and the Department of Energy's Building Technology Office ongoing support of and investment in building energy modeling software. is an analytic methodology for modeling the energy usage of the commercial building stock within the United States of America. The commercial building stock is represented through a sampling of complex probabilistic distributions of various features of interest for modeling energy usage within commercial buildings. Each sample from these distributions is converted into a building energy model based on the features of that specific sample. Each building energy model can be simulated as is, but additional changes can be made to the model through addition of energy conservation measures, component faults, or other desired alterations. The results of the simulations are then processed to provide insights for various stakeholders, including but not limited to policy makers, engineers, and marketers.

Horsey, Henry↗

Heavy-Duty Low-Temperature and Diesel Combustion & Heavy-Duty Combustion Modeling (FY 2018 Annual Progress Report)

Regulatory drivers and market demands for lower pollutant emissions, lower carbon dioxide emissions, and lower fuel consumption motivate the development of clean and fuel-efficient engine operating strategies. Most current production engines use a combination of both in-cylinder and exhaust emission control strategies to achieve these goals. The emissions and efficiency performance of in-cylinder strategies depend strongly on flow and mixing processes associated with fuel injection. Both heavy- and light-duty engine/vehicle manufacturers use multiple-injection strategies to reduce noise, emissions, and fuel consumption. For both conventional and low-temperature diesel combustion, the state of knowledge and modeling tools for multiple injections are far less advanced than for single-injection strategies. Engine efficiency is limited to some degree by tradeoffs that must be accepted to meet particulate matter (including soot) emissions limits. Recent work on this project has filled some knowledge gaps on soot oxidation with multiple injections, and the current work for Fiscal Year (FY) 2018 addresses knowledge gaps on soot formation for multiple injections. While total in-cylinder soot is readily measured, discerning formation from oxidation is difficult. The FY 2018 experiments are designed to create in-cylinder conditions at the threshold of soot formation, where processes that affect soot formation can be more readily discerned. Soot formation pathways under such conditions are fraught with uncertainties, and soot models significantly overpredict polyaromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) and soot, so experimental data at these conditions will provide much needed data for improvements to PAH and soot models.

02 PETROLEUM↗

EVI-LOCATE User Manual

One of the longest stages in the deployment of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) is the initial planning of the infrastructure itself. Engineers and fleet experts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have supported dozens of charging infrastructure site plans over the past couple decades, including the generation of site schematics, determinations of electric capacity, and estimates for likely costs. As the market for electric vehicles (EVs) has matured, this approach should no longer require a time and personnel intensive process. In order to shorten the time taken to develop site plans and cost estimates, NREL developed a tool that fleet managers, facility managers, electricians, EVSE installers, and members of the public can use to develop initial schematics and ballpark pricing for charging station installations. The Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - Locally Optimized Charger Assessment Tool and Estimator (EVI-LOCATE) provides a structured and consistent way for users to enter information about their planned EVSE project in a relatively simple web-based format. EVI-LOCATE then calculates electrical equipment capacity, wiring runs, and project costs. It produces a site diagram optimized around surface characteristics with differential trenching costs for softscape such as grass compared to hardscape such as asphalt that can be adjusted by users in the tool. It also stores the resulting site plans and costs in a dashboard for access at a later date, including plan revisions if necessary. This document guides users through the EVI-LOCATE screens and associated questions. It contains tip text boxes throughout on how best to interface with the tool and find additional information or context. The appendices contain the assumptions and calculations underpinning the tool. Much of the information for EVI-LOCATE was gathered through industry engagements with EVSE installers, invoices from completed EVSE installations, Gordian's RS Means construction data, and the General Services Administration blanket purchase agreement for EVSE. For a visual tutorial of the tool, users can watch EVI-LOCATE Step-by-Step Video. The tool itself is available at https://evi-locate.nrel.gov.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Design optimization of an ethanol heavy-duty engine using design of experiments and bayesian optimization

Diesel-fueled engines still hold a large market share in the medium and heavy-duty transportation sector. However, the increase in fossil fuel prices and the strict emission regulations are leading engine manufacturers to seek cleaner alternatives without a compromise in performance. Alcohol-based fuels, such as ethanol, offer a promising alternative to diesel fuel in meeting regulatory demands. Ethanol provides cleaner combustion and lower levels of soot due to its chemical properties, in particular its lower level of carbon content. In addition, the stoichiometric operating conditions of alcohol fueled engines enable the mitigation of NOx emissions in aftertreatment stage. With the promise of retrofitting diesel engines to run on ethanol to reduce emissions, the thermal efficiency of these engines remains the primary optimization target. In order to find the optimal ethanol-fueled engine design that maximizes the thermal efficiency, a large design space needs to be investigated using engineering tools. In this study, previous research by the authors on optimizing the design of a single-cylinder ethanol-fueled engine was extended to explore the design space for a heavy-duty multi-cylinder engine configuration. A heavy-duty engine setup with multiple operating conditions at different engine speeds and loads were considered. A design optimization analysis was performed to identify the potential designs that maximize the indicated thermal efficiency in an ethanol-fueled compression ignition engine. First, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the engine was validated using experimental data for four drive cycle points. Using a design of experiments (DoE) approach and a parameterized piston bowl geometry, the model was then exercised to explore the relationship among geometric features of the piston bowl and spray targeting angle and indicated thermal efficiency across all tested operating conditions. After evaluating 165~candidate designs, a piston bowl geometry was identified that yielded an increase between 1.3 to 2.2 percentage points in indicated thermal efficiency for all tested conditions, while satisfying the operational design constraints for peak pressure and maximum pressure rise rate. The increased performance was attributed to enhanced mixing that led to the formation of a more homogeneous distribution of in-cylinder temperature and equivalence ratio, higher combustion temperatures, and shorter combustion duration. Finally, a Bayesian optimization (BOpt) analysis was employed to find the optimal piston bowl geometry with a fixed spray injector angle for one of the operating conditions. Using BOpt, a piston candidate was identified that resulted in a 1.9~percentage point increase in thermal efficiency from the baseline design, yet only required 65\% of the design samples investigated using the DoE approach.

Tekgul, Bulut↗

Informing selection of drugs for COVID-19 treatment through adverse events analysis

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic and there is an urgent need for safe and effective drugs for COVID-19 treatment. Since developing a new drug is time consuming, many approved or investigational drugs have been repurposed for COVID-19 treatment in clinical trials. Therefore, selection of safe drugs for COVID-19 patients is vital for combating this pandemic. Our goal was to evaluate the safety concerns of drugs by analyzing adverse events reported in post-market surveillance. We collected 296 drugs that have been evaluated in clinical trials for COVID-19 and identified 28,597,464 associated adverse events at the system organ classes (SOCs) level in the FDA adverse events report systems (FAERS). We calculated Z-scores of SOCs that statistically quantify the relative frequency of adverse events of drugs in FAERS to quantitatively measure safety concerns for the drugs. Analyzing the Z-scores revealed that these drugs are associated with different significantly frequent adverse events. Our results suggest that this safety concern metric may serve as a tool to inform selection of drugs with favorable safety profiles for COVID-19 patients in clinical practices. Caution is advised when administering drugs with high Z-scores to patients who are vulnerable to associated adverse events.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Science Breakthroughs 2030. Final report

Agriculture is a fundamental societal activity, characterized by many different landscapes, crops, markets, and participants. Food, agricultural, and biofuels products are central to the daily life of all citizens, though most do not recognize the fragility of the environment that brings forth this abundance. As is noted in the 2012 report from the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, Agricultural Preparedness and the United States Agricultural Research Enterprise (PCAST, 2012) the food and agricultural system faces constant challenges in: Managing new pests, pathogens, and invasive plants. Increasing the efficiency of water use. Growing food in a changing climate. Reducing the environmental footprint of agriculture. Managing the production of bioenergy. Producing safe and nutritious food. Assisting with global food security and maintaining abundant yields. Science Breakthroughs 2030 was organized to identify the most compelling research directions in food and agriculture, in particular those empowered by the application of insights and tools from disciplines of science and engineering not typically associated with food and agricultural research. A committee appointed by the Chairman of the National Research Council explored ideas for research directions with input from the scientific community, with the objective of producing a report describing ambitious and achievable scientific pathways to address major problems and create new opportunities in food and agriculture. Following numerous meetings, a jamboree, and town hall, the appointed committee prepared a report that has subsequently become a reference for federal agencies supporting research in the food and agricultural space. It highlights five key areas for research investment with broad application across food and agriculture: integrated systems research; sensor development; data mining and information sciences, genomics; and the microbiome.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Modeling Assessment of Residential Air-to-Water Heat Pumps Coupled with Cooling Thermal Storage

This study explored the performance and operating cost viability of air-to-water heat pumps (AWHPs) coupled with thermal energy storage (TES) in efficient new residential construction. AWHPs are an emerging technology in this country, but offer promise in terms of high efficiency, fully contained and factory charged outdoor refrigeration system, and hydronic delivery capabilities, which facilitates zoning, ducts in conditioned space, and TES integration for summer load-shifting. Although this AWHP+TES strategy is not yet mainstream, the authors feel that in ten years as decarbonization efforts proceed and TOU rates become more common, strategies such as this will be more accessible. Validated EnergyPlus simulation models were developed based on detailed monitoring data collected over several years at Pacific Gas and Electric's CVRH laboratory test homes located in Stockton, California. One of the CVRH test homes (1,962 ft 2 two-story) had been testing various AWHP systems and configurations over the past six years. The validated model was then updated with high efficiency IECC ZERH envelope and component requirements for climate zones 1-5, including ducts in conditioned space thermal distribution. Simulations were completed for the 1,962 ft 2 home in each climate zone for a minimum efficiency ASHP, an AWHP coupled with a fan coil, and an AWHP coupled with TES sized to eliminate summer on-peak compressor operation. To maintain consistency in reporting energy use estimates, all cases were run with a similar indoor thermostat control strategy to pre-cool the house below the nominal 76 degrees Fahrenheit set point prior to the on-peak period and float slightly above the set point during the peak period. The AWHP+TES configuration was controlled to alternately condition the indoor space or to charge the TES tanks prior to the beginning of the on-peak. Three composite TOU rates were developed based on existing TOU rates across the U.S. to provide differing economic scenarios to evaluate customer bill impacts throughout the summer. Two of the TOU rates had short three-hour peak periods, while the third rate had a longer seven-hour duration peak period. AWHP modeling projections were based on the observed field performance of the Chiltrix CX34 variable speed unit. Other products on the market or entering the market in the near term would likely perform differently.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

GEN3D Experimental and Numerical Development of GEN3 Durability Models

Understanding of the high temperature durability of particles and the materials that contain them is critical to next generation of concentrating solar power (CSP) technology. Here we studied the durability of particles and their containment materials under extreme UV cycling, thermal cycling, and in low-speed high temperature mechanical wear situations. The optical stability of seven candidate particles has been determined following exposure to the high temperature conditions present in a generation 3 particle-based CSP technology. Particle solar weighted absorptance and emittance measured periodically during 10,000 high solar irradiance exposure cycles and up to 400 hours of isothermal aging has been documented. The particle aging due to repeated exposure to concentrated solar flux represented the 30-year lifetime of a power plant. Models were fit to the absorptivity and emissivity data following the isothermal aging provides the projected optical degradation of the particles as a function of temperature. Mechanical wear was studied through the use of custom developed wear testing facilities for measuring high temperature impact wear, abrasion wear, and particle attrition. Additionally, a novel technique for measuring the high temperature mechanical properties of single particles was developed. Through these tests it was observed that high nickel alloys generally showed lower wear than comparable iron based steels, particularly at elevated temperatures of 800°C. Mechanical wear at these temperatures is a highly complex phenomenon combining both mechanical wear and oxidation. Additionally, the containment materials wear rates are influenced by the particles (both hardness and roundness), making the wear mechanisms complex. The initial wear test conducted in the abrasion test rig revealed a substantial amount of oxide materials in the particle bed after testing (in relative to later tests), and substantially more wear, likely indicating a need for concern in startup operation of particle facilities to not incur high wear from the presence of oxides. Particle attrition experiments have only been conducted for a single material but increase size distribution, reduction in circularity, and particle diameter is observed. Efforts to develop predictive models was limited due to a testing campaign that prioritized testing materials for particle pathway developers over building a comprehensive design of experiments. The results discussed in this report inform future CSP developers and researchers further de risking the technology and assisting in its future development. ParticleBased CSP development provides a path to dispatchable solar power generation with storage at a price competitive in the current energy market. Lowering the cost of CSP technology provides a carbon free power generation solution that can assist in the transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources of electricity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Catalytic Bio-crude Production in a Novel, Short-Contact Time Reactor

RTI has developed a catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) process to produce biomass-based hydrocarbon replacement fuels. From a technology perspective, this advanced biofuels process produces liquid transportation fuels that can leverage capital expenditures in the existing petroleum distribution infrastructure. From a business perspective, this technology does not face potential market limitations caused by oxygenate blend limitations for light duty vehicle applications. A promising catalyst has been developed with excellent potential for deoxygenation to produce a hydrocarbon-rich biocrude that is more suitable for upgrading with traditional hydroprocessing technology. The role of the catalyst is to control the chemistry during biomass pyrolysis to produce a biocrude in a single step that has lower oxygen content and is more thermally stable than conventional biomass fast pyrolysis oil. Catalyst properties are optimized to minimize gas and coke production and improve catalytic deoxygenation and biocrude yields. Results from this project have demonstrated that biocrudes from catalytic fast pyrolysis contain <20 wt% oxygen, with the organic fraction as low as 12% oxygen. These oxygen numbers are > 50% lower compared to traditional fast pyrolysis oils. The biocrude produced from our CFP process can be upgraded to gasoline range hydrocarbons. A very conservative approach for upgrading included a preliminary stabilization step followed by a hydroprocessing step. The oxygen content in the upgraded product was decreased by 97% (to less than 3wt %) from the oxygen content of the biocrude sample. Additionally, the acid content was reduced by 99% from the acid content of the biocrude sample. In an optimized integrated process, the CFP step and the hydroprocessing (upgrading) step need to be carefully balanced to maximize the input biomass energy that is recovered in the finished biofuels. Hydrogen utilization and carbon recovery during both catalytic biomass pyrolysis and biocrude upgrading need to be optimized to maximize energy recovery in the finished biofuel. A nominal 1 ton per day (TPD) catalytic biomass pyrolysis system was designed based on the laboratory experimental data. The system was designed to achieve the short residence times (0.5–2 sec) and high heat transfer rates required for maximum liquid biocrude yields while optimizing process integration to maintain catalyst activity by continuous regeneration. The catalytic biomass pyrolysis reactor is a continuously circulating single-loop transport reactor design that is flexible enough to allow sensitivity studies around temperature, residence time, biomass feed rate, and catalyst-to-biomass ratio (i.e., catalyst circulation rate) for process optimization. For a nominal 100 lb/hr feed rate of dry biomass, the products include ~25 lb/hr char and coke, ~20 lb/hr permanent gases, and ~55 lb/hr condensable vapors. Pyrolysis temperatures are 350–600°C, and the system is operated close to ambient pressure. Production of the catalyst developed within the project was scaled up to provide enough material (200kg) for bench-scale testing. The 1TPD bench-scale unit was fabricated, installed and commissioned with this project. Biocrude samples from wood were produced in this unit with the CFP catalyst with material balance > 90%. The intermediate biocrude yields and chemical composition compare well with previous laboratory results and a hydroprocessing strategy for upgrading the resulting biocrude was developed. The experimental results obtained within this project were used to develop a process model for a 2000 TPD commercial facility. Detailed flow sheets were developed for all major unit operations in the process and provided a basis for an economic analysis to develop capital and operating costs. Estimates of the biofuel production costs were used to develop internal rates of return for the yields and compositions measured for the current state of technology at the end of this project and for the yields anticipated for an optimized (nth plant) scenario as additional process improvements are made.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Progress toward picosecond on-chip magnetic memory

Here, we offer a perspective on the prospects of ultrafast spintronics and opto-magnetism as a pathway to high-performance, energy-efficient, and non-volatile embedded memory in digital integrated circuit applications. Conventional spintronic devices, such as spin-transfer-torque magnetic-resistive random-access memory (STT-MRAM) and spin–orbit torque MRAM, are promising due to their non-volatility, energy-efficiency, and high endurance. STT-MRAMs are now entering into the commercial market; however, they are limited in write speed to the nanosecond timescale. Improvement in the write speed of spintronic devices can significantly increase their usefulness as viable alternatives to the existing CMOS-based devices. In this article, we discuss recent studies that advance the field of ultrafast spintronics and opto-magnetism. An optimized ferromagnet–ferrimagnet exchange-coupled magnetic stack, which can serve as the free layer of a magnetic tunnel junction (MTJ), can be optically switched in as fast as ~3 ps. Integration of ultrafast magnetic switching of a similar stack into an MTJ device has enabled electrical readout of the switched state using a relatively larger tunneling magnetoresistance ratio. Purely electronic ultrafast spin–orbit torque induced switching of a ferromagnet has been demonstrated using ~6 ps long charge current pulses. We conclude our Perspective by discussing some of the challenges that remain to be addressed to accelerate ultrafast spintronics technologies toward practical implementation in high-performance digital information processing systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2023 Status Update [Slides]

This report provides an overview and status update on U.S. state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) and has been expanded from previous editions to also cover 100% clean electricity standards (CES) adopted by a growing number of states. The report, published in slide-deck form along with accompanying data files, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on clean electricity development, and compliance costs. The 2023 edition presents historical data through year-end 2022 and projections out to 2050. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: -Evolution of state RPS and CES programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies, often by adopting higher targets and/or broader CES policies. Among the 29 states plus DC with an RPS, 16 states have RPS targets of at least 50% of retail sales, and 17 states have a 100% CES or RPS target. -Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 30% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2022. Within some regions, particularly the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, RPS policies play a more central role in motivating RE growth. -Future RPS and CES demand and incremental needs: RPS and CES policies will require roughly 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of additional clean electricity supply by 2030 and 800 TWh by 2050, requiring total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 28% of electricity sales by 2050 (compared to 17% today). This amounts to roughly one-quarter of EIA’s projected RE growth through 2050. -RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. Most CES targets are not yet in force. -Renewable energy certificate (REC) pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs remained at roughly $\$40$ /MWh over the past year, just below alternative compliance payment (ACP) rates in the larger state markets, while PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise, reaching $\$30$ /MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs (or SRECs) remained relatively stable, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($\$200-450$ /MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC. -RPS compliance costs: RPS compliance costs average roughly 3.5% of retail electricity bills across RPS states, though vary widely from state to state, with the highest costs (8-12% of retail bills) in states with solar carve-outs and high SREC prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Grid-Integrated Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels from Nuclear Power

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) investigates the relative economic profitability of an integrated energy system (IES) coupling an NPP with a synfuel production process at selected case study locations across the United States. In the synfuel IES, a high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) plant is thermally and electrically coupled with an NPP to produce zero-carbon hydrogen. The synthetic fuel is produced from this H 2 combined with a CO 2 supply using the reverse water gas shift process followed by the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) reaction. This analysis considers a system in which the CO 2 is sourced from regional CO 2 emitters via the construction and operation of pipeline-based CO 2 supply networks. Locating the FT plant at the same site as the NPP and HTSE plants enables the NPP to provide zero-carbon heat and power to the HTSE plant and zero-carbon power to the FT plant as well as avoid the requirement for long-distance H 2 product transport from the HTSE plant to the FT plant. Hydrogen storage is used to enable the NPP to dispatch power to the electrical grid (instead of the HTSE plant) when grid demand increases, thus enabling the FT plant to continue to operate in a steady-state production mode. The ability to cease hydrogen production for several hours within each day enables the NPP to provide power to the grid to balance the electricity market during peak periods and maximize revenues for the nuclear synfuel IES. The FT process design considered has a 99% carbon conversion efficiency. The use of nuclear energy and nuclear energy-derived hydrogen enables synfuel production to achieve this high level of carbon utilization. Additionally, the life-cycle carbon emissions of the nuclear-based synfuel production process are very low, with WTW emissions of approximately 25 gCO 2 e/MJ, including steam credits (generated from FT process excess heat), and approximately 7 gCO 2 e/MJ, if steam credits are excluded. This compares favorably with the WTW emissions of 90.5 gCO 2 e/MJ for a compression-ignition, direct injection (CIDI) vehicle with a fuel economy of 31.6 miles per gallon gasoline equivalent (MPGGE), using low-sulfur diesel produced using conventional petroleum production and refining processes. Several NPPs in various regions of the U.S. are considered as case study analyses. Supply locations and transportation via pipeline of the CO 2 feedstock to the NPP site are analyzed through the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) CO 2 Transport Cost model. The team finds that the amount of CO 2 generated by different sectors is sufficient for the synfuel production process at all locations considered. The CO 2 transportation costs are functions of the distance of the source to the NPP location, the CO 2 capture cost at the source, and the quantity of CO 2 transported. Historical electricity prices for the NPP case study locations are collected and analyzed. Monthly average prices, price range, and duration of negative-price periods vary among these locations. For each location, an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model is trained on historical electricity price data. ARMA validation is done to ensure the synthetic price distributions represent one of historical prices with high fidelity. Synthetic time series from these ARMA models are used in a coupled dispatch and system optimization in the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) to compute the differential net present value (NPV) of the IES. The team finds that this econometric is positive, ranging from $14M–1.3bn (2020) depending on the location. The optimal synfuel IES configuration to obtain this increase in NPV often maximizes the size of the synfuel production process with regards to the size of the NPP. However, the team shows that the NPP still plays a stabilizing role for the grid: In periods of high prices and high loads, more electricity from the NPP is sent to the grid. A high variability of electricity prices and extreme maximum prices tend to drive up electricity production. While it requires significant investment, the synfuel IES could increase the economic profitability for the existing fleet of LWRs across the country while still maintaining the grid stabilizer role of NPPs. During its lifetime, the main costs for the nuclear synfuel IES are the carbon feedstock transportation costs, followed by the capital expenses (CAPEX) and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs while the revenue comes first from the IRA H 2 production tax credit (PTC) and then from the sales of synfuel products. The profitability of the synfuel IES is most sensitive to the value of the hydrogen PTC and the synfuel products as well as the cost of the carbon feedstock, highlighting the importance of governmental incentives regarding hydrogen, carbon emissions, and synfuel in driving the deployment of future nuclear synfuel IESs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2024 Status Update [Slides]

This report provides an overview and status update on U.S. state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) and has been expanded from previous editions to also cover 100% clean electricity standards (CES) adopted by a growing number of states. The report, published in slide-deck form along with accompanying data files, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on clean electricity development, and compliance costs. The 2023 edition presents historical data through year-end 2023 and projections out to 2050. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: -Evolution of state RPS and CES programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies, often by adopting higher targets and/or broader CES policies. Among the 29 states plus DC with an RPS, 16 have RPS targets of at least 50% of retail sales, and 4 states have a 100% RPS. An additional 16 states have adopted a broader 100% CES. -Historical impacts on renewables development: Almost half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is nominally associated with state RPS requirements. That percentage has declined over time to 35% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2023, though in certain regions RPS policies continue to play a dominant role in driving RE growth. -Future RPS and CES demand and incremental needs: The combined demand for clean electricity from RPS and CES policies will grow from roughly 500 TWh today to 1700 TWh by 2050. Accounting for current supplies—including existing nuclear and hydroelectric generation eligible for CES targets—RPS and CES policies will require 900 TWh of new clean electricity by 2050, equivalent to roughly 3x the historical rate of RPS-buildout. -RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. Most CES targets are not yet in force, and so little compliance experience to-date. -REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs remained at roughly $\$40$/MWh over the past year, just below ACP rates in the larger state markets, while PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise, reaching $\$35$/MWh by year-end 2023 and surpassing ACP levels in some states. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC. -RPS compliance costs: RPS compliance costs average roughly 4% of retail electricity bills across RPS states, though vary widely from state to state, with the highest costs (11-12% of retail bills) in states with solar carve-outs and high SREC prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗