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At least 811 records · Page 45

Exploring Coupled Land-Atmosphere Carbon Dynamics and Seasonal Carbon Forecast Skill

Terrestrial biosphere is an integral part of the climate system and plays a vital role in controlling the dynamics of the Earth’s carbon cycle. In this talk, I will present recent efforts to explore coupled land-atmosphere carbon dynamics and seasonal carbon cycle predictability. First, by imposing an idealized spring drought in coupled land‐atmosphere ensemble simulations, we investigated the impact of a regional drought on land and atmospheric carbon. Through the drought-induced impact on remote meteorology, the capability of the land’s carbon uptake is altered in both the drought area and the adjacent areas. The induced anomalies of the atmospheric CO2 extend to an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, which suggests that atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of the drought impact on carbon anomalies. Increase in column‐averaged monthly CO2 is at the edge of the uncertainty from single soundings of current greenhouse gas observing satellites. Secondly, the seasonal carbon forecast skill was explored using NASA’s subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble forecast and terrestrial biosphere model. The result demonstrates an ability to accurately predict spring-summer carbon uptake in the Northern Hemisphere mid and high latitude land at multi-month leads. The prediction skill appears to be achieved by accurate forecasts of snow removal timing, which provides a latent predictability to the forecast system, and by proper initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Additionally, I will briefly discuss other ongoing research to improve hydrometeorological prediction by integrating biogeochemical processes, to evaluate forecast skill of wildfire carbon, and to apply subseasonal forecasts to water resources management.

Eunjee Lee↗

Lunar Mining and Processing: Considerations for Responsible Space Mining & Connections to Terrestrial Mining

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States of America (US) has initiated the Artemis Moon to Mars program to send astronauts (the first woman and person of color) back to the lunar surface, create a sustainable human lunar exploration program, and lead the first human exploration mission to the Mars surface in the late 2030’s [1]. Besides reinvigorating human exploration beyond low Earth orbit not seen since the Apollo program and enabling new scientific activities and discoveries, a major objective of this program is to characterize the resources that exist on the Moon and Mars, and learn how to utilize them for human exploration and the commercialization of cis-lunar space. Commonly known as In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), the search for, acquisition, and processing of resources in space has the potential to greatly reduce the dependency on transporting mission consumables and infrastructure from Earth, thereby reducing mission costs, risks, and dependency on Earth. With the launch of Artemis I in November 2022 and the anticipation of several robotic missions to the Moon under the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, greater recognition and excitement about NASA’s Artemis program and lunar exploration activities is growing in the public. With the recognition that past statements and concept videos of human exploration of the Moon are actually becoming real, there is also a growing awareness of the possible positive and negative consequences and impacts these exploration activities may have on the Moon and Mars. On the positive side, the development of ISRU and lunar mining and processing can enable and grow lunar surface exploration and cis-lunar commercial activities, as well as provide benefits to terrestrial industries through spin-in and spin-back of advanced technologies and autonomous operations. On the negative side, there is a perception that space mining will impact the lunar surface and environment negatively for science, and that cultural beliefs about the Moon need to be addressed and considered before these operations occur. This paper will begin to explore the potential driving attributes and guidelines that will address how best to maximize the lessons and connections to terrestrial mining to reduce the risk and cost of lunar ISRU and space commercial activities, enhance efforts to achieve the terrestrial ‘mine of the future’, and provide viable markets for space-derived technologies until commercial space mining is established. This paper will also begin to explore the potential driving attributes and guidelines that could address how to minimize the environmental and surface impacts of lunar ISRU and foster ‘responsible’ space mining that can be implemented until more official agreements and treaties are signed. The existing robust mining regulations adopted globally will be used as a basis for this examination and suggestions will be presented to adopt these agreements for use in space mining.

ISRU↗

International Human Mission to Mars: Analyzing A Conceptual Launch and Assembly Campaign

In July of 2013, U.S. Congressman Kennedy (D-Mass.) successfully offered an amendment to H.R. 2687, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Authorization Act of 2013. "International Participation—The President should invite the United States partners in the International Space Station program and other nations, as appropriate, to participate in an international initiative under the leadership of the United States to achieve the goal of successfully conducting a crewed mission to the surface of Mars." This paper presents a concept for an international campaign to launch and assemble a crewed Mars Transfer Vehicle. NASA’s “Human Exploration of Mars: Design Reference Architecture 5.0” (DRA 5.0) was used as the point of departure for this concept. DRA 5.0 assumed that the launch and assembly campaign would be conducted using NASA launch vehicles. The concept presented utilizes a mixed fleet of NASA Space Launch System (SLS), U.S. commercial and international launch vehicles to accomplish the launch and assembly campaign. This concept has the benefit of potentially reducing the campaign duration. However, the additional complexity of the campaign must also be considered. The reliability of the launch and assembly campaign utilizing SLS launches augmented with commercial and international launch vehicles is analyzed and compared using discrete event simulation.

Cates, Grant↗

The flight and impact dispersion of the Comet Nucleus Penetrator - A six-degree-of-freedom simulation

The flight dynamics of a Penetrator probe which, as part of a Comet Rendezvous and Asteroid Flyby mission will impact a known periodic comet, possibly Hempel 2, and penetrate beneath the surface to obtain measurements, is discussed. The mission is described, including the penetrator-separation dynamics, the dynamics during initial coast and rocket thrust phase, and the final coast to impact. The effects on the results that may be caused by the comet nucleus gravity field variations, uncertainty in the spacecraft state vector, the spacecraft pointing accuracy, initial separation errors, and rocket motor thrust errors are examined.

Mascy, A. C.↗

Study of unsteady flow field over a forward-looking endoatmospheric hit-to-kill interceptor

Forward-looking recessed aperture interceptor has significant aero-optical and aero-thermal advantages. Previous experimental studies have shown that the flow field in front of a forward-looking cavity is unsteady and the bow shock oscillates at the cavity fundamental resonant frequency. In this study, an advanced CFD code is applied to study the above unsteady phenomena. The code is first validated against the experiments and good comparisons are found. The numerical parametric study shows that the existence of oscillatory bow shock is very sensitive to the cavity geometry. At a FOV of 60 deg, the initial transient quickly dampens out to a steady state. With a decrease of FOV, an unsteady oscillatory flow field is sustained after initial transient and the amplitude of oscillation is a function of FOV. For FOV of 20 deg, the amplitude of pressure oscillation is 25 percent of the mean value in the cavity. For a FOV of 10 deg, it can be as high as 50 percent.

Yang, H. Q.↗

An anisotropic extension of Bodner's model of viscoplasticity: Model development

An anisotropic viscoplasticity model is developed as an extension of the well known Bodner model. The extension is made by replacing the effective stress of the isotropic Bodner model by one involving invariants for transverse isotropy. The resulting model retains the simplicity of Bodner's in the ease with which the material constants are determined experimentally. It allows a representation of strong initial anisotropy yet is based on the scalar state variable under the assertion that induced anisotropy is negligible relative to the strong initial anisotropy. Temperature dependence is taken as in the original Bodner theory. Account is made of fiber volume fraction through nonlinear rules of mixture applied to the stress history and anisotropy parameters. Focus is on the theoretical development of the model, however, application to a W/Cu composite is in progress and will be reported as a sequel to this report.

Robinson, David N.↗

Generalized Augmented-State Covariance Analysis for Spaceflight

The use of linear covariance analysis techniques, also known as LinCov, has been used extensively for more than a half century for spaceflight applications. Originally, its primary purpose was to facilitate navigation analysis. For many past and current applications, the specific implementations only support navigation studies still. When the concept of an augmented-state linear covariance analysis approach was initially introduced that allowed for both navigation and trajectory dispersion analysis, the enhancement was motivated and primarily utilized to support navigation filter tuning and error budget analysis. Relatively few utilize this alternate augmented-state formulation of LinCov due to its additional complexity. The untapped potential of the augmented-state linear covariance analysis technique slowly unfolded in the past two-decades as its capability to rapidly and reliably capture the integrated closed-loop guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system performance became more apparent. Even with this dual purpose of generating insights to both navigation errors along with trajectory and delta-v dispersions, the core theoretical development had a heavy emphasis on the impacts of the navigation system and largely neglected the details of the actual guidance, targeting, and control systems. This paper extends the navigation-centric theoretical development by formulating a generalized augmented-state covariance analysis (GAUSCOV) technique that allows for the intricacies of a variety of targeting and control strategies along with ground planning and mission operations to be more formally included in assessing the impacts to spaceflight GN&C system performance.

Linear Covariance Analysis↗

Elastic-plastic finite element analyses of an unidirectional, 9 vol percent tungsten fiber reinforced copper matrix composite

Micromechanical modeling via elastic-plastic finite element analyses were performed to investigate the effects that the residual stresses and the degree of matrix work hardening (i.e., cold-worked, annealed) have upon the behavior of a 9 vol percent, unidirectional W/Cu composite, undergoing tensile loading. The inclusion of the residual stress-containing state as well as the simulated matrix material conditions proved to be significant since the Cu matrix material exhibited plastic deformation, which affected the subsequent tensile response of the composite system. The stresses generated during cooldown to room temperature from the manufacturing temperature were more of a factor on the annealed-matrix composite, since they induced the softened matrix to plastically flow. This event limited the total load-carrying capacity of this matrix-dominated, ductile-ductile type material system. Plastic deformation of the hardened-matrix composite during the thermal cooldown stage was not considerable, therefore, the composite was able to sustain a higher stress before showing any appreciable matrix plasticity. The predicted room temperature, stress-strain response, and deformation stages under both material conditions represented upper and lower bounds characteristic of the composite's tensile behavior. The initial deformation stage for the hardened material condition showed negligible matrix plastic deformation while for the annealed state, its initial deformation stage showed extensive matrix plasticity. Both material conditions exhibited a final deformation stage where the fiber and matrix were straining plastically. The predicted stress-strain results were compared to the experimental, room temperature, tensile stress-strain curve generated from this particular composite system. The analyses indicated that the actual thermal-mechanical state of the composite's Cu matrix, represented by the experimental data, followed the annealed material condition.

Sanfeliz, Jose G.↗

Development of a Numerical Model of Hypervelocity Impact into a Pressurized Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel

As the outlook for space exploration becomes more ambitious and spacecraft travel deeper into space than ever before, it is increasingly important that propulsion systems perform reliably within the space environment. The increased reliability compels designers to increase design margin at the expense of system mass, which contrasts with the need to limit vehicle mass to maximize payload. Such are the factors that motivate the integration of high specific strength composite materials in the construction of pressure vessels commonly referred to as composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPV). The COPV consists of a metallic liner for the inner shell of the COPV that is stiff, negates fluid permeation and serves as the anchor for composite laminates or filaments, but the liner itself cannot contain the stresses from the pressurant it contains. The compo-site-fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) is wound around the liner using a combination of hoop (circumferential) and helical orientations. Careful consideration of wrap orientation allows the composite to evenly bear structural loading and creates the COPV's characteristic high strength to weight ratio. As the CFRP overwrap carries most of the stresses induced by pressurization, damage to the overwrap can affect mission duration, mission success and potentially cause loss-of-vehicle/loss-of-crew. For this reason, it is critical to establish a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms involved in the failure of a stressed composite such as that of the COPV. One of the greatest external threats to the integrity of a spacecraft's COPV is an impact from the meteoroid and orbital debris environments (MMOD). These impacts, even from submillimeter particles, generate extremely high stress states in the CFRP that can damage numerous fibers. As a result of this possibility, initial assumptions in survivability analysis for some human-rated NASA space-craft have assumed that any alteration of the vessel due to impact is considered a catastrophic failure. This assumption is conservative and made due to lack of knowledge on the level of allow-able damage to the composite overwrap that can be sustained and still allow successful completion of the mission. To quantify the allowable damage level to the composite overwrap involves assessing stress redistribution following damage as well as evaluating possible time-dependent mechanisms involved in the COPV response to an impact event. Limited published work in this subject has shown that COPV can withstand at least some level of damage due to high energy impacts. These observations have been confirmed and expanded upon in recent experimental research performed by NASA. This research has demonstrated that there is not only robustness in a COPV to compensate for CFRP damage, but has also identified two significant failure modes for pressurized COPV. The lowest threshold failure mode involves the perforation of the vessel, and the highest threshold failure mode is the catastrophic rupture. While both of these failure modes mean a loss of the COPV, system robustness affords some tolerance to the venting as opposed to the more catastrophic rupture. As a consequence, it is necessary to understand the conditions that result in the transition between these failure modes. The aforementioned experimental research has been performed in both the unpressurized and pressurized condition to identify the damage level that triggered the failure thresh-old. This COPV test program was sponsored by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), and tests were performed at NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF). Planning and coordination were provided by NASA JSC Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) group, and the COPVs were provided by the ISS Program. Unpressurized testing has been conducted at the pressure of the vacuum test chamber, while, the pressurized testing has been conducted at 290 +/- 10 bar (4,200  100 psi) using nitrogen as the pressurizing gas, which corresponds to the design pressure for the target COPV. In this research, spherical aluminum projectiles with varying diameter has been chosen as the impactor. For the unpressurized COPV, the dependence of penetration up to the dependence of hole size in the liner has been obtained as a function of impact conditions. For the pressurized research, the dependence of penetration up to rupture has been obtained as a function of im-pact conditions. Two representative post-test photographs of the failed COPV's from a nor-mal impact into the COPV surface are shown in Fig. 1. These images display the dramatic difference between failure modes, venting (Fig. 1a) and rupture (Fig. 1b). For venting, liner perforation, severed composite fibers/tows and ply delamination are commonly observed damage characteristics of this COPV failure mode. In the case of rupture, the COPV typically experienced a separation of its domed regions and severe break-up of the cylindrical region. Fully understanding the transition from venting to rupture experimentally is costly and potentially unachievable for conditions that cannot be generated in the laboratory. These shortcomings have motivated the performance of three-dimensional numerical simulations to expand the existing experimental database. These simulations have been carried out with the nonlinear-structural-dynamics, analysis-tool, CTH. A typical pressure contour plot from an impact simulation of an entire COPV is shown in Fig. 2. To generate the COPV stress state without initiating a shock wave, the pressure in the simulated COPV is ramped up to the final pressure over a millisecond prior to impact of the projectile with nitrogen gas. Figure 2a shows the system in this initial condition. After one millisecond, a projectile is initiated into the simulation and impacts the COPV. Figure 2b shows the system after this impact. In the figure, the onset of venting is represented as the change in pressure (μbar), red to green, at the perforation site. Also seen in the figure is the eroded projectile that had passed into the COPV vessel with the generated shock wave in the pressurant propagating just ahead of the material. In this paper, pertinent experimental details and the development of the material constitutive models necessary for this work along with the efforts to validate their use are dis-cussed. The simulation results are presented and compared with the NASA experimental observations. While work is on-going from this effort, early observations pertinent to the failure threshold are presented.

Garcia, M. A.↗

Task scheduling in dataflow computer architectures

Dataflow computers provide a platform for the solution of a large class of computational problems, which includes digital signal processing and image processing. Many typical applications are represented by a set of tasks which can be repetitively executed in parallel as specified by an associated dataflow graph. Research in this area aims to model these architectures, develop scheduling procedures, and predict the transient and steady state performance. Researchers at NASA have created a model and developed associated software tools which are capable of analyzing a dataflow graph and predicting its runtime performance under various resource and timing constraints. These models and tools were extended and used in this work. Experiments using these tools revealed certain properties of such graphs that require further study. Specifically, the transient behavior at the beginning of the execution of a graph can have a significant effect on the steady state performance. Transformation and retiming of the application algorithm and its initial conditions can produce a different transient behavior and consequently different steady state performance. The effect of such transformations on the resource requirements or under resource constraints requires extensive study. Task scheduling to obtain maximum performance (based on user-defined criteria), or to satisfy a set of resource constraints, can also be significantly affected by a transformation of the application algorithm. Since task scheduling is performed by heuristic algorithms, further research is needed to determine if new scheduling heuristics can be developed that can exploit such transformations. This work has provided the initial development for further long-term research efforts. A simulation tool was completed to provide insight into the transient and steady state execution of a dataflow graph. A set of scheduling algorithms was completed which can operate in conjunction with the modeling and performance tools previously developed. Initial studies on the performance of these algorithms were done to examine the effects of application algorithm transformations as measured by such quantities as number of processors, time between outputs, time between input and output, communication time, and memory size.

Katsinis, Constantine↗

Initial conditions and Korteweg-de Vries solitons

The effects of rectangular initial data on the evolution of solitons governed by the Korteweg-de Vries equation is studied. Both isolated and separated disturbances are considered, providing some general insight into how the nature of the initial condition influences the appearance of solitons in the asymptotic state. The analytic approach is based on the inverse scattering transform which relates the initial condition to Schroedinger's equation. The results are used to model the initial shallow-water disturbances, and the results can be summarized by stating that the number of evolved solitons depends on the strength of each rectangular disturbance, the relative amplitudes of the rectangular disturbances, and the relative proximity of the disturbances.

Weidman, P. D.↗

Fault Management Practice: A Roadmap for Improvement

Autonomous fault management (FM) is critical for deep space and planetary missions where the limited communication opportunities may prevent timely intervention by ground control. Evidence of pervasive architecture, design, and verification/validation problems with NASA FM engineering has been revealed both during technical reviews of spaceflight missions and in flight. These problems include FM design changes required late in the life-cycle, insufficient project insight into the extent of FM testing required, unexpected test results that require resolution, spacecraft operational limitations because certain functions were not tested, and in-flight anomalies and mission failures attributable to fault management. A recent NASA initiative has characterized the FM state-of-practice throughout the spacecraft development community and identified common NASA, DoD, and commercial concerns that can be addressed in the near term through the development of a FM Practitioner's Handbook and the formation of a FM Working Group. Initial efforts will focus on standardizing FM terminology, establishing engineering processes and tools, and training.

Fesq, Lorraine M.↗

Measurements of copper ground-state and metastable level population densities in a copper-chloride laser

The population densities of both the ground and the 2D(5/2) metastable states of copper atoms in a double-pulsed copper-chloride laser are correlated with laser energy as a function of time after the dissociation current pulse. Time-resolved density variations of the ground and excited copper atoms were derived from measurements of optical absorption at 324.7 and 510.6 nm, respectively, over a wide range of operating conditions in laser tubes with diameters of 4 to 40 mm. The minimum delay between the two current pulses at which lasing was observed is shown to be a function of the initial density and subsequent decay of the metastable state. Similarly, the maximum delay is shown to be a function of the initial density and decay of the ground state.

Nerheim, N. M.↗

Attitudinal Responses to Changes in Noise Exposure in Residential Communities

The purpose of this study is (1) to investigate the current body of knowledge encompassing two related topics: (a) to what extent can we reliably predict the change in people's attitudes in response to an abrupt change in noise exposure, and (b) after the change, is there a decay in the abrupt-change effect whereby people's attitudes slowly shift from their initial reaction to a steady-state value? and (2) to provide recommendations for any future work that may be needed. The literature search located 23 studies relating to one or both of the above topics. These prior studies shed considerable light on the current ability to predict initial reaction and decay effects. The literature makes one point very clear: Great care in both experimental design and data analysis is necessary to produce credible, convincing findings, both in the reanalysis of existing data and for planning future data acquisition and analysis studies. New airport studies must be designed to minimize nuisance variables and avoid past design features that may have introduced sufficient unexplained variance to mask sought after effects. Additionally, the study must be designed to tie in with previous investigations by incorporating similar survey questions and techniques.

Horonjeff, Richard D.↗

Role of PHM in Autonomous Decision-Making: Aerospace applications

There is an increased need for onboard decision-making capabilities in cyber-physical systems be it in energy, automotive, aviation, space, or other industries as they aim for increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission assurance capabilities. Emerging next-gen technologies such as multi-rover planetary missions, distributed satellites, unmanned ground and aerial vehicle operations and smart grid systems rely on in-time risk assessment and autonomous decision-making. One critical piece of the autonomy puzzle is reliable prediction of system behavior under time-varying and potentially uncertain environmental conditions. Further, if agent states change during operation such as initiation of faults or degradation, reliable diagnostic tools need to be investigated. In this tutorial, we will revise approaches that integrates existing physics-based and data-driven models of agents interacting with probability models of the environment and component operation state. Role of existing PHM methodologies as they feed into decision-making under uncertainty will be studied. Balancing critical trade-offs between high-fidelity prognostic models, prediction time-horizons and the computational requirements for in-time cost-effective decision-making will be discussed through the implementation of surrogate models. Finally, the audience will be introduced to a real-time application of in-time trajectory planning of an unmanned aerial system (UAS) based on its PHM assessments under uncertain and varying wind conditions.

decision-making↗

Spatial, Temporal, and Electrical Characteristics of Lightning in Reported Lightning-Initiated Wildfire Events

Analysis was performed to determine whether a lightning flash could be associated with every reported lightning-initiated wildfire that grew to at least 4 km(exp 2). In total, 905 lightning-initiated wildfires within the Continental United States (CONUS) between 2012 and 2015 were analyzed. Fixed and fire radius search methods showed that 81–88% of wildfires had a corresponding lightning flash within a 14 day period prior to the report date. The two methods showed that 52–60% of lightning-initiated wildfires were reported on the same day as the closest lightning flash. The fire radius method indicated the most promising spatial results, where the median distance between the closest lightning and the wildfire start location was 0.83 km, followed by a 75th percentile of 1.6 km and a 95th percentile of 5.86 km. Ninety percent of the closest lightning flashes to wildfires were negative polarity. Maximum flash densities were less than 0.41 flashes km(exp 2) for the 24 h period at the fire start location. The majority of lightning-initiated holdover events were observed in the Western CONUS, with a peak density in north-central Idaho. A twelve day holdover event in New Mexico was also discussed, outlining the opportunities and limitations of using lightning data to characterize wildfires.

Flash density↗

Thermosolutal convection during dendritic solidification

This paper presents a mathematical model for directional solidification of a binary alloy including a dendritic region underlying an all-liquid region. It is assumed initially that there exists a nonconvecting state with planar isotherms and isoconcentrates solidifying at a constant velocity. The stability of this system has been analyzed and nonlinear calculations are performed that show the effect of convection in the solidification process when the system is unstable. Results of calculations for various cases defined by the initial temperature gradient at the dendrite tips and varying strength of the gravitational field are presented for systems involving lead-tin alloys. The results show that the systems are stable for a gravitational constant of 0.0001 g(0) and that convection can be suppressed by appropriate choice of the container's size for higher values of the gravitational constant. It is also concluded that for the lead-tin systems considered, convection in the mushy zone is not significant below the upper 20 percent of the dendritic zone, if al all.

Heinrich, J. C.↗

Electromagnetic Emission from a Binary Black Hole Merger Remnant in Plasma: Field Alignment and Plasma Temperature

Comparable-mass black-hole mergers generically result in moderate to highly spinning holes, whose spacetime curvature will significantly affect nearby matter in observable ways. We investigate how the moderate spin of a postmerger Kerr black hole immersed in a plasma with initially uniform density and uniform magnetic field affects potentially observable accretion rates and energy fluxes. Varying the initial specific internal energy of the plasma over two decades, we find very little change in steady-state mass accretion rate or Poynting luminosity, except at the lowest internal energies, where fluxes do not exhibit steady-state behavior during the simulation timescale. Fixing the internal energy and varying the initial fixed magnetic-field amplitude and orientation, we find that the steady-state Poynting luminosity depends strongly on the initial field angle with respect to the black hole spin axis, while the matter accretion rate is more stable until the field angle exceeds ∼45°. The protojet formed along the black hole spin axis conforms to a thin, elongated cylinder near the hole, while aligning with the asymptotic magnetic field at large distances.

Bernard J Kelly↗