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At least 811 records · Page 45

Small Hydropower in the United States

Small hydropower, defined in this report as hydropower with a generating capacity of up to 10 MW typically built using existing dams, pipelines, and canals has substantial opportunity for growth. Existing small hydropower comprises about 75% of the current US hydropower fleet in terms of number of plants. The economic feasibility of developing new small hydropower projects has substantially improved recently, making small hydropower the type of new hydropower development most likely to occur. In 2013, Congress unanimously approved changes to simplify federal permitting requirements for small hydropower, lowering costs and reducing the amount of time required to receive federal approvals. In 2014, Congress funded a new federal incentive payment program for hydropower, currently worth approximately 1.5 cents/kWh. Federal and state grant and loan programs for small hydropower are becoming available. Pending changes in federal climate policy could benefit all renewable energy sources, including small hydropower. Notwithstanding remaining barriers, development of new small hydropower is expected to accelerate in response to recent policy changes.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Indirect Solar Water Heating in Single-Family, Zero Energy Ready Homes

Solar water heating systems are not new, but they have not become prevalent in most of the U.S. Most of the country is cold enough that indirect solar thermal systems are required for freeze protection, and average installed cost of these systems is $9,000 to $10,000 for typical systems on single-family homes. These costs can vary significantly in different markets and with different contractors, and federal and regional incentives can reduce these up-front costs by 50% or more. In western Massachusetts, an affordable housing developer built a community of 20 homes with a goal of approaching zero net energy consumption. In addition to excellent thermal envelopes and PV systems, the developer installed a solar domestic water heating system (SDHW) on each home. The Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB), a research consortium funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Building America program, commissioned some of the systems, and CARB was able to monitor detailed performance of one system for 28 months.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Public Housing: A Tailored Approach to Energy Retrofits

Over one million HUD-supported public housing units provide rental housing for eligible low-income families across the country. A survey of over 100 public housing authorities (PHAs) across the country indicated that there is a high level of interest in developing low-cost solutions that improve energy efficiency and can be seamlessly included in the refurbishment process. Further, PHAs, have incentives (both internal and external) to reduce utility bills. ARIES worked with four PHAs to develop packages of energy efficiency retrofit measures the PHAs can cost-effectively implement with their own staffs in the normal course of housing operations at the time when units are refurbished between occupancies. The energy efficiency turnover protocols emphasized air infiltration reduction, duct sealing, and measures that improve equipment efficiency. ARIES documented implementation in 18 housing units. Reductions in average air leakage were 16% and duct leakage reductions averaged 23%. Total source energy consumption savings due to implemented measures was estimated at 3-10% based on BEopt modeling with a simple payback of 1.6 to 2.5 years. Implementation challenges were encountered mainly related to required operational changes and budgetary constraints. Nevertheless, simple measures can feasibly be accomplished by PHA staff at low or no cost. At typical housing unit turnover rates, these measures could impact hundreds of thousands of units per year nationally.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Final Project Closeout Report for Sprint Hydrogen Fuel Cell (HFC) Deployment Project in California, Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard Markets

Sprint is one of the telecommunications industry leaders in the deployment of hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) systems to provide backup power for their mission critical wireless network facilities. With several hundred fuel cells commissioned in California, states in the gulf coast region, and along the upper eastern seaboard. A strong incentive for advancing the integration of fuel cells into the Sprint network came through the award of a Department of Energy (DOE) grant focused on Market Transformation activities for project (EE0000486). This grant was funded by the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). The funding provided by DOE ($7.295M) was allocated to support the installation of 260 new HFC systems, equipped with an on-site refillable Medium Pressure Hydrogen Storage Solution (MPHSS), as well as for the conversion of 21 low pressure hydrogen systems to the MPHSS, in hopes of reducing barriers to market acceptance.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Center for Efficiency in Sustainable Energy Systems

The main goal of the Center for Efficiency in Sustainable Energy Systems is to produce a methodology that evaluates a variety of energy systems. Task I. Improved Energy Efficiency for Industrial Processes: This task, completed in partnership with area manufacturers, analyzes the operation of complex manufacturing facilities to provide flexibilities that allow them to improve active-mode power efficiency, lower standby-mode power consumption, and use low cost energy resources to control energy costs in meeting their economic incentives; (2) Identify devices for the efficient transformation of instantaneous or continuous power to different devices and sections of industrial plants; and (3) use these manufacturing sites to demonstrate and validate general principles of power management. Task II. Analysis of a solid oxide fuel cell operating on landfill gas: This task consists of: (1) analysis of a typical landfill gas; (2) establishment of a comprehensive design of the fuel cell system (including the SOFC stack and BOP), including durability analysis; (3) development of suitable reforming methods and catalysts that are tailored to the specific SOFC system concept; and (4) SOFC stack fabrication with testing to demonstrate the salient operational characteristics of the stack, including an analysis of the overall energy conversion efficiency of the system. Task III. Demonstration of an urban wind turbine system: This task consists of (1) design and construction of two side-by-side wind turbine systems on the YSU campus, integrated through power control systems with grid power; (2) preliminary testing of aerodynamic control effectors (provided by a small business partner) to demonstrate improved power control, and evaluation of the system performance, including economic estimates of viability in an urban environment; and (3) computational analysis of the wind turbine system as an enabling activity for development of smart rotor blades that contain integrated sensor/actuator/controller modules to enhance energy capture and reduce aerodynamic loading and noise by way of virtual aerodynamic shaping. Accomplishments: Task I. Improved Energy Efficiency for Industrial Processes: We organized an energy management training session held on February 22, 2011, which was advertised through a regional manufacturing association to provide wide-ranging notification. Over two dozen companies were represented a the seminar, ranging from heavy manufacturing businesses with $5,000,000 per year energy expenses, to small, light manufacturing facilities. Task 2. Landfill Fuel Cell Power Generation Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) were constructed and evaluated as a means of obtaining electrical energy from landfill gas. Analysis of landfill gas. Attempts at collecting gas samples at the landfill and evaluating them on campus were still unsuccessful. Even a Teflon® sample bag would lose its H2S content. Evaluation of Gas Clean-up We consider this a confirmation of the CO2 effect on the solubility of H2S in water making much less sulfide available for the photocatalyst. It also means that another method should be employed to clean up landfill gas. Nonetheless, composition of impurities in landfill gas was reduced sufficiently to allow successful operation of the test fuel cell. Comparison to a PEM fuel cell system. If a PEMFC were to be operated with landfill gas as the fuel, the gas would have to be treated for sulfur removal, and then processed in a reformer large enough to drive the equilibrium far toward the products, so that negligible CO would flow into the fuel cell. Analysis of a fuel cell running on landfill gas. Using a Gow-Mac gas chromatograph with a thermal conductivity detector, unambiguous determination of CO can be made, at least as a primary constituent Task 3: Task 3 Plasma Controlled Turbine Blades Wind Turbine Selection. After carefully reviewing the various model available in the market the team selected the ARE 110 (2.5kW). The ARE 110 provides a very long life with little maintenance due to their relatively low rotational speeds (low RPM). The turbines large swept area (10.2ms2/110sq.ft), high-efficiency blades, purpose built alternator, and optimized power electronics ensure maximum energy capture from a wide range of wind speeds. Two wind turbines were installed side-by-side at the Melnick Hall site to compare their performance. Evaluate and Optimize Aerodynamically Enhanced Turbine Blades Due to delays in the installation of the wind turbines, no actual data was obtained within the contract period. At this time, the turbines are installed and operational at YSU with standard blades. We are in contact with Orbital Research and in discussion as to how best the required data can be obtained.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Framework for Organizing Current and Future Electric Utility Regulatory and Business Models

Many regulators, utilities, customer groups, and other stakeholders are reevaluating existing regulatory models and the roles and financial implications for electric utilities in the context of today’s environment of increasing distributed energy resource (DER) penetrations, forecasts of significant T&D investment, and relatively flat or negative utility sales growth. When this is coupled with predictions about fewer grid-connected customers (i.e., customer defection), there is growing concern about the potential for serious negative impacts on the regulated utility business model. Among states engaged in these issues, the range of topics under consideration is broad. Most of these states are considering whether approaches that have been applied historically to mitigate the impacts of previous “disruptions” to the regulated utility business model (e.g., energy efficiency) as well as to align utility financial interests with increased adoption of such “disruptive technologies” (e.g., shareholder incentive mechanisms, lost revenue mechanisms) are appropriate and effective in the present context. A handful of states are presently considering more fundamental changes to regulatory models and the role of regulated utilities in the ownership, management, and operation of electric delivery systems (e.g., New York “Reforming the Energy Vision” proceeding).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

On the Path to SunShot. Emerging Issues and Challenges in Integrating Solar with the Distribution System

This report analyzes distribution-integration challenges, solutions, and research needs in the context of distributed generation from PV (DGPV) deployment to date and the much higher levels of deployment expected with achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot targets. Recent analyses have improved estimates of the DGPV hosting capacities of distribution systems. This report uses these results to statistically estimate the minimum DGPV hosting capacity for the contiguous United States using traditional inverters of approximately 170 GW without distribution system modifications. This hosting capacity roughly doubles if advanced inverters are used to manage local voltage and additional minor, low-cost changes could further increase these levels substantially. Key to achieving these deployment levels at minimum cost is siting DGPV based on local hosting capacities, suggesting opportunities for regulatory, incentive, and interconnection innovation. Already, pre-computed hosting capacity is beginning to expedite DGPV interconnection requests and installations in select regions; however, realizing SunShot-scale deployment will require further improvements to DGPV interconnection processes, standards and codes, and compensation mechanisms so they embrace the contributions of DGPV to system-wide operations. SunShot-scale DGPV deployment will also require unprecedented coordination of the distribution and transmission systems. This includes harnessing DGPV's ability to relieve congestion and reduce system losses by generating closer to loads; minimizing system operating costs and reserve deployments through improved DGPV visibility; developing communication and control architectures that incorporate DGPV into system operations; providing frequency response, transient stability, and synthesized inertia with DGPV in the event of large-scale system disturbances; and potentially managing reactive power requirements due to large-scale deployment of advanced inverter functions. Finally, additional local and system-level value could be provided by integrating DGPV with energy storage and 'virtual storage,' which exploits improved management of electric vehicle charging, building energy systems, and other large loads. Together, continued innovation across this rich distribution landscape can enable the very-high deployment levels envisioned by SunShot.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Geothermal Heat Pump System for New Student Housing Project at the University at Albany Main Campus

University at Albany successfully designed, constructed and is operating a new student housing building that utilizes ground source heat pump (GSHP) for heating and cooling the entire 191,500SF building. The installed system consists of a well field with 150 bores, 450 feet deep and (189) terminal heat pump units for a total capacity of 358 Tons cooling and 4,300 MBtu/h heating. The building opened in Fall 2012. The annual energy use and cost intensity of the building, after the changes made during the first 2 years’ of operation is 57kBtu/SF/Year and $1.30/SF/Year respectively. This is approximately 50% lower than the other residential quads on campus, despite the fact that the quads are not air-conditioned. The total project cost from design through 3-years of operations is approximately $6 Million, out of which $5.7 Million is for construction of the GSHP system including the well field. The University received a $2.78 Million grant from the Department of Energy. The estimated utility cost savings, compared to a baseline building with conventional HVAC system, is approximately $185,000. The estimated simple payback, after grant incentives, is 15 years. Additionally, the project has created 8.5FTE equivalent jobs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Valuation of Transactive Systems

This is a final report from a project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy to formulate and test a methodology for valuation of systems where transaction-based mechanisms coordinate the exchange of value between the system’s actors. Today, the principal commodity being exchanged is electrical energy, and such mechanisms are called transactive energy systems. The authors strove to lay a foundation for meaningful valuations of transactive systems in general, and transactive energy systems as a special case. The word valuation is used in many different ways. This report proposes a valuation methodology that is inclusive of many types of valuations. Many will be familiar with cost-benefit valuations, in which both costs and benefits are assessed to determine whether the assets are worth their cost. Another set of valuation methods attempt to optimize an outcome using available resources, as is the case with integrated resource planning. In the end, this report’s methodology was most influenced by and most resembles the integrated-resource-planning approach. Regardless, we wish to enforce the premise that all valuations are comparative and should clearly specify a baseline scenario. A long, annotated list of prior valuation studies and valuation methodologies that influenced this report has been appended to this report. Much research is being conducted today concerning transactive systems, but only a handful of transactive system mechanisms have been formulated and field tested. They are found to be quite diverse, and the documentation of the various mechanisms is uneven in breadth and quality. It is therefore not adequate to simply assert that a valuation scenario includes a transactive system; certain characteristics and qualities of the chosen transactive system mechanism must be defined and stated. The report lists and discusses most of the known transactive system mechanisms. It offers a set of questions that may be used to help specify important characteristics of the transactive system mechanisms, which should be conveyed along with other valuation results. A valuation methodology is proposed. Some abstraction is necessarily retained so that the methodology may be applied for the many purposes of today’s valuations and across grid, building, societal, and other domains. The report’s methodology advocates separation of operational timescales from long-term growth timescales. Operational models are defined as the models that inform impacts within the relatively short, often yearlong, operational time periods. Growth models define how the scenarios evolve from one operational period to the next (e.g., from year to year). We believe the recommended methodology is a critical step toward collaborative community platforms, where analysts and decision makers alike could contribute and borrow content within their expertise. The report then asks, what is unique about valuations when systems become coordinated by transactive systems? In answer, accurate valuations of transactive systems require careful adherence to the dynamic interaction between a system’s responsive elements and the system’s operational objectives. In every transactive system mechanism, elements respond to incentives that become revealed to them, and certain operational objectives become explicitly incentivized by the transactive system mechanism. The transactive system mechanisms define the important coupling between the responsive elements and the system’s objectives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Utilization of CO2 in High Performance Building and Infrastructure Products

The overall objective of DE-FE0004222 was to demonstrate that calcium silicate phases, in the form of either naturally-occuring minerals or synthetic compounds, could replace Portland cement in concrete manufacturing. The calcium silicate phases would be reacted with gaseous CO2 to create a carbonated concrete end-product. If successful, the project would offer a pathway to a significant reduction in the carbon footprint associated with the manufacture of cement and its use in concrete (approximately 816 kg of CO2 is emitted in the production of one tonne of Portland cement). In the initial phases of the Technical Evaluation, Rutgers University teamed with Solidia Technologies to demonstrate that natural wollastonite (CaSiO3), milled to a particle size distribution consistent with that of Portland cement, could indeed fit this bill. The use of mineral wollastonite as a cementitious material would potentially eliminate the CO2 emitted during cement production altogether, and store an additional 250 kg of CO2 during concrete curing. However, it was recognized that mineral wollastonite was not available in volumes that could meaningfully impact the carbon footprint associated with the cement and concrete industries. At this crucial juncture, DE-FE0004222 was redirected to use a synthetic version of wollastonite, hereafter referred to as Solidia Cement™, which could be manufactured in conventional cement making facilities. This approach enables the new cementitious material to be made using existing cement industry raw material supply chains, capital equipment, and distribution channels. It would also offer faster and more complete access to the concrete marketplace. The latter phases of the Technical Evaluation, conducted with Solidia Cement made in research rotary kilns, would demonstrate that industrially viable CO2-curing practices were possible. Prototypes of full-scale precast concrete products such as pavers, concrete masonry units, railroad ties, hollow-core slabs, and aerated concrete were produced to verify the utility of the CO2-curing process. These products exhibited a range of part dimensions and densities that were representative of the precast concrete industry. In the subsequent Demonstration of Commercial Development phase, the characteristics and performance of Solidia Cement made at a LafargeHolcim cement plant were established. This Solidia Cement was then used to demonstrate the CO2-curing process within operating concrete plants. Pavers, concrete masonry units and roofing tiles were produced according to ASTM and manufacturer specifications. A number of attractive manufacturing economies were recognized when Solidia Cement-based concrete parts were compared to their Portland cement based counterparts. These include reduced raw materials waste, reduced dependence on admixtures to control efflorescence, shorter curing time to full concrete strength, faster equipment clean-up, reduced equipment maintenance, and improved inventory management. These economies make the adoption of the Solidia Cement / CO2-curing process attractive even in the absence of environmental incentives. The culminating activity of the Demonstration of Commercial Development phase was the conversion of 10% of the manufacturing capacity at a concrete paver and block company from Portland cement-based products to Solidia Cement-based products. The successful completion of the Demonstration of Commercial Development phase clearly illustrated the environmental benefits associated with Solidia Cement and Solidia Concrete technologies. The industrial production of Solidia Cement, as a low-lime alternative to traditional Portland cement, reduces CO2 emissions at the cement kiln from 816 kg of CO2 per tonne of Portland cement clinker to 570 kg per tonne of Solidia Cement clinker. Industrial scale CO2-curing of Solidia Concrete sequestered a net of 183 kg of CO2 per tonne of Solidia Cement used in concrete pavers. Taken together, these two effects reduced the CO2 footprint associated with the production and use of cement in concrete products by over 50% (a reduction of 430 kg of CO2 per tonne of cement). Applied at the first commercial Solidia Concrete manufacturing site, the two effects will combine to reduce the CO2 footprint associated with the production and use of cement by over 10,000 tonnes per year. When applied across the precast concrete industry in the U.S., it is estimated that the CO2 footprint will be reduced by 8.6 million tonnes per year (20 million tonnes of cement used in precast concrete x 430 kg of CO2 per tonne of cement). Applied across the entire concrete industry in the U.S., it is expected that 43 million tonnes of CO2 will be avoided per year (100 million tonnes of cement used in all concrete x 430 kg of CO2 per tonne of cement).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Expanding Midscale Solar: Examining the Economic Potential, Barriers, and Opportunities at Offices, Hotels, Warehouses, and Universities

The midscale market for solar photovoltaics (PV), defined as behind-the-meter systems between 100 kW and 2 MW, has grown more slowly than other PV market segments in recent years. A number of key barriers have impeded growth, including tenant and landlord split incentives, contracting challenges, the mismatch in building lease and PV financing terms, and high transaction costs relative to project sizes. This report explores prospects for expansion of the midscale solar market, with a focus on four building segments: offices, hotels, warehouses, and universities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Midmarket Solar Policies in the United States: A Guide for Midsized Solar Customers

The midscale market for solar photovoltaics (PV) has not experienced the same high growth rate as residential- or utility-scale market segments in the past five years when solar PV deployment increased rapidly. Midscale solar can be defined as behind-the-meter solar PV between 50 kilowatts and 2 megawatts adopted by multi-housing residential, commercial, industrial, non-profit, and other entities. A number of challenges face the midscale segment, including difficulties in contracting, mismatch between tenant lease and PV financing terms, high transaction costs relative to project sizes, and inefficiencies in matching prospective projects with capital. The changing policy landscape across U.S. states provides both opportunities and challenges to midmarket solar. Some states, such as California, are expanding system capacity limits for policies such as net metering, thus enabling a wider range of customers to benefit from excess generation. A number of states and utilities are making changes to rate design to introduce new or higher user fees for solar customers or reduced tariffs for net metering, which decrease the value of solar generation. An understanding of these policies relative to project feasibility and economics is important for prospective customers to make informed decisions to adopt solar PV. This guide complements existing solar policy resources to help potential customers navigate through the policy landscape in order to make informed decisions for their solar investment. The first part of this guide introduces the key solar policies necessary for policy-based decision-making, which involves using knowledge of a solar policy to improve project economics and efficiency. Policies that could result in policy-based decisions include interconnection standards, net metering, user fees, incentives, and third-party ownership policies. The goal of this section is to equip prospective customers and project developers with the tools necessary to understand and use solar policies in a dynamic policy environment. The second part of this guide provides a complete, state-by-state inventory of midmarket solar policies for potential customers and developers to use as reference when making policy-based decisions. Although solar policies are dynamic, the profiles provide a framework for assessing policies to build the parameters that could be used to determine feasibility and structure of a solar PV system for midmarket customers and developers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Research and Development Opportunities for Technologies to Influence Water Consumption Behavior

In April 2015, Argonne National Laboratory hosted a two-day workshop that convened water experts and stakeholders from across industry, government, and academia to undertake three primary tasks: 1) identify technology characteristics that are favorable for motivating behavioral change, 2) identify barriers that have prevented the development and market adoption of technologies with these characteristics in the water sector, and 3) identify concrete research and development pathways that could be undertaken to overcome these barriers, increase the penetration of technologies that influence water consumption behavior, and ultimately reduce domestic water consumption. While efforts to reduce water consumption have gained momentum in recent years, there are a number of key barriers that have limited the effectiveness of such efforts. Chief among these is the fact that many consumers have limited awareness of their water consumption patterns because of poor data availability, and/or are unmotivated to reduce their consumption because of low costs and split incentives. Without improved data availability and stronger price signals, it will be difficult to effect true transformative behavioral change. This report also reviews a number of technology characteristics that have successfully motivated behavioral change in other sectors, as well as several technologies that could be developed specifically for the water sector. Workshop participants discussed how technologies that provide active feedback and promote measurable goals and social accountability have successfully influenced changes in other types of behavior. A range of regulatory and policy actions that could be implemented to support such efforts are also presented. These include institutional aggregation, revenue decoupling, and price structure reforms. Finally, several R&D pathways were proposed, including efforts to identify optimal communication strategies and to better understand consumer perceptions and psychology as they relate to human behavior regarding water consumption. The findings presented here can help to inform policy makers as they develop new policies and seek to support new research to help consumers use water more efficiently. It is our hope that these findings will also be utilized to prioritize topics for additional follow-up workshops to address individual issues and barriers more directly and in more detail. The goal of such future workshops will be to develop specific solutions, research plans, and technology development pathways that can be undertaken to increase the market penetration of technologies that effect behavioral change and reduce water consumption.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Remixing the ‘Appropriate Mix’: Reassessing NATO’s Deterrence and Defense Posture in the Face of New Threats

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the countries of Europe face a renewed challenge from the east vis-à-vis the Putin regime in Moscow. In the face of these new challenges, NATO must reconsider its deterrence and defense posture in order to deter conflict in Europe. Unfortunately, Russian attempts to rewrite the rules of the post-Cold War international order by force have been coupled with nuclear saber rattling and overt nuclear threats. Russia’s nuclear threats, in addition to provocative changes to Russia’s nuclear posture in its Military Doctrine, are methods to make up for Russia’s conventional military inferiority relative to NATO and the United States. Some have described Moscow’s actions as laying the groundwork for a nuclear coercion strategy. While the decrease in the nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States has reduced the likelihood of nuclear annihilation to an all-time low since the height of the Cold War, Russia’s nuclear coercion strategy is increasing the probability of nuclear employment in Europe. The probability of nuclear use is compounded by Russia’s tremendous local military advantage around its periphery in spite of U.S. global military primacy. This military advantage increases the incentive to use military force if Russian decision-makers conclude that a quick military victory is possible, or if Russian leaders miscalculate based on an incorrect assessment of military force balance or resolve of their adversary. The integration of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia (referred to as the Baltics in this paper) into the NATO alliance in 2004 makes Russia’s military advantage in its periphery increasingly relevant. Each NATO state is required to assist any NATO state that comes under attack per Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty. The Baltic states’ proximity to Russia, their weak indigenous militaries, their former status as Soviet Republics, large population of ethnic Russians, and Russian President Vladimir V. Putin’s claim that he will protect Russians wherever they are makes the Baltics the most likely flashpoint for conflict between NATO and Russia. This analysis will tackle the problem of reshaping NATO’s deterrence and defense posture in light of the new Russian threat and its obligation to defend its most vulnerable members. Specifically, it will assess the suitability of NATO’s “appropriate mix” of nuclear, conventional, and missile defense capabilities to deterring conventional conflict with Russia and, if conventional deterrence fails, preventing Russian nuclear escalation. It will use a scenario-based approach informed by a deterrence model to explore how changes to NATO’s posture and policy could impact the deterrence of Russian aggression.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Analysis of Fuel Cell Markets in Japan and the US: Experience Curve Development and Cost Reduction Disaggregation

Fuel cells are both a longstanding and emerging technology for stationary and transportation applications, and their future use will likely be critical for the deep decarbonization of global energy systems. As we look into future applications, a key challenge for policy-makers and technology market forecasters who seek to track and/or accelerate their market adoption is the ability to forecast market costs of the fuel cells as technology innovations are incorporated into market products. Specifically, there is a need to estimate technology learning rates, which are rates of cost reduction versus production volume. Unfortunately, no literature exists for forecasting future learning rates for fuel cells. In this paper, we look retrospectively to estimate learning rates for two fuel cell deployment programs: (1) the micro-combined heat and power (CHP) program in Japan, and (2) the Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) in California. These two examples have a relatively broad set of historical market data and thus provide an informative and international comparison of distinct fuel cell technologies and government deployment programs. We develop a generalized procedure for disaggregating experience-curve cost-reductions in order to disaggregate the Japanese fuel cell micro-CHP market into its constituent components, and we derive and present a range of learning rates that may explain observed market trends. Finally, we explore the differences in the technology development ecosystem and market conditions that may have contributed to the observed differences in cost reduction and draw policy observations for the market adoption of future fuel cell technologies. The scientific and policy contributions of this paper are the first comparative experience curve analysis of past fuel cell technologies in two distinct markets, and the first quantitative comparison of a detailed cost model of fuel cell systems with actual market data. The resulting approach is applicable to analyzing other fuel cell markets and other energy-related technologies, and highlights the data needed for cost modeling and quantitative assessment of key cost reduction components.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impacts of Federal Tax Credit Extensions on Renewable Deployment and Power Sector Emissions

The report examines the impacts of the tax credit extensions under two distinct natural gas price futures, as the price of natural gas has been a key factor influencing the economic competitiveness of new renewable energy development. The analysis finds that, in both natural gas price cases, tax credit extensions can spur renewable capacity investments at least through the early 2020s, and can help lower CO 2 emissions from the U.S. electricity system. Federal tax credits for renewable energy, particularly the wind production tax credit (PTC) and the solar investment tax credit (ITC), have offered financial incentives for renewable energy deployment over the last two decades in the United States. In December 2015, the wind and solar tax credits were extended by five years from their prior scheduled expiration dates, but ramp down in tax credit value during the latter years of the five-year period.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Thermodynamic Properties of Aqueous Carbonate Species and Solid Carbonate Phases of Selected Trace Elements pertinent to Drinking Water Standards of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

This report contains a series of tables summarizing the thermodynamic properties of aqueous carbonate complexes and solid carbonate phases of the following elements: arsenic (As), barium (Ba), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), lead (Pb), manganese (Mn), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni) thallium (Tl), uranium (U) and zinc (Zn). Most of these elements are potentially hazardous as defined by extant primary drinking water standards of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The remainder are not considered hazardous, but are either listed by EPA under secondary standards, or because they can adversely affect drinking water quality. Additional tables are included giving the thermodynamic properties for carbonates of the alkali metal and alkali earth elements, sodium (Na), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), calcium (Ca), and strontium (Sr), because of their value in developing correlative models to estimate the thermodynamic properties of carbonate minerals for which no such data currently exist. The purpose in creating the tables in this report is to provide future investigators with a convenient source for selecting and tracing the sources of thermodynamic data of the above listed elements for use in modeling their geochemical behavior in “underground sources of drinking water” (USDW). The incentive for doing so lies with a heightened concern over the potential consequences of the proposed capture and storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) generated by fossil fuel fired power plants in deep subsurface reservoirs. If CO2 were to leak from such reservoirs, it could migrate upward and contaminate USDWs with undesirable, but undetermined, consequences to water quality. The EPA, Office of Research and Development, through an Interagency Agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, funded the preparation of this report.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

2015 Wind Technologies Market Report

Annual wind power capacity additions in the United States surged in 2015 and are projected to continue at a rapid clip in the coming five years. Recent and projected near-term growth is supported by the industry’s primary federal incentive—the production tax credit (PTC)—having been extended for several years (though with a phase-down schedule, described further on pages 68-69), as well as a myriad of state-level policies. Wind additions are also being driven by improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technologies, yielding low power sales prices for utility, corporate, and other purchasers. At the same time, the prospects for growth beyond the current PTC cycle remain uncertain: growth could be blunted by declining federal tax support, expectations for low natural gas prices, and modest electricity demand growth. This annual report—now in its tenth year—provides a detailed overview of developments and trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a particular focus on 2015. The report begins with an overview of key installation-related trends: trends in U.S. wind power capacity growth; how that growth compares to other countries and generation sources; the amount and percentage of wind energy in individual states; the status of offshore wind power development; and the quantity of proposed wind power capacity in various interconnection queues in the United States. Next, the report covers an array of wind power industry trends: developments in turbine manufacturer market share; manufacturing and supply-chain developments; wind turbine and component imports into and exports from the United States; project financing developments; and trends among wind power project owners and power purchasers. The report then turns to a summary of wind turbine technology trends: turbine size, hub height, rotor diameter, specific power, and IEC Class. After that, the report discusses wind power performance, cost, and pricing trends. In so doing, it describes trends in project performance, wind turbine transaction prices, installed project costs, and operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses. It also reviews the prices paid for wind power in the United States and how those prices compare to short-term wholesale electricity prices and forecasts of future natural gas prices. Next, the report examines policy and market factors impacting the domestic wind power market, including federal and state policy drivers as well as transmission and grid integration issues. The report concludes with a preview of possible near-term market developments. This edition of the annual report updates data presented in previous editions while highlighting key trends and important new developments from 2015. The report concentrates on larger, utility-scale wind turbines, defined here as individual turbines that exceed 100 kW in size.

17 WIND ENERGY↗