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At least 811 records · Page 45

The Impacts of an Observationally-Based Cloud Fraction and Condensate Overlap Parameterization on a GCM's Cloud Radiative Effect

It has been shown that the details of how cloud fraction overlap is treated in GCMs has substantial impact on shortwave and longwave fluxes. Because cloud condensate is also horizontally heterogeneous at GCM grid scales, another aspect of cloud overlap should in principle also be assessed, namely the vertical overlap of hydrometeor distributions. This type of overlap is usually examined in terms of rank correlations, i.e., linear correlations between hydrometeor amount ranks of the overlapping parts of cloud layers at specific separation distances. The cloud fraction overlap parameter and the rank correlation of hydrometeor amounts can be both expressed as inverse exponential functions of separation distance characterized by their respective decorrelation lengths (e-folding distances). Larger decorrelation lengths mean that hydrometeor fractions and probability distribution functions have high levels of vertical alignment. An analysis of CloudSat and CALIPSO data reveals that the two aspects of cloud overlap are related and their respective decorrelation lengths have a distinct dependence on latitude that can be parameterized and included in a GCM. In our presentation we will contrast the Cloud Radiative Effect (CRE) of the GEOS-5 atmospheric GCM (AGCM) when the observationally-based parameterization of decorrelation lengths is used to represent overlap versus the simpler cases of maximum-random overlap and globally constant decorrelation lengths. The effects of specific overlap representations will be examined for both diagnostic and interactive radiation runs in GEOS-5 and comparisons will be made with observed CREs from CERES and CloudSat (2B-FLXHR product). Since the radiative effects of overlap depend on the cloud property distributions of the AGCM, the availability of two different cloud schemes in GEOS-5 will give us the opportunity to assess a wide range of potential cloud overlap consequences on the model's climate.

Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗

Improving Time Step Convergence in an Atmosphere Model With Simplified Physics: The Impacts of Closure Assumption and Process Coupling

Convergence testing is a common practice in the development of dynamical cores of atmospheric models but is not as often exercised for the parameterization of sub-grid physics. An earlier study revealed that the stratiform cloud parameterizations in several predecessors of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) showed strong time-step sensitivity and slower-than-expected convergence when the model's time step was systematically refined. In this work, a simplified atmosphere model is configured that consists of the spectral-element dynamical core of the E3SM atmosphere model coupled with a large-scale condensation parameterization based on commonly used assumptions. This simplified model also resembles E3SM and its predecessors in the numerical implementation of process coupling and shows poor time-step convergence in short ensemble tests. We present a formal error analysis to reveal the expected time-step convergence rate and the conditions for obtaining such convergence. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the root causes of convergence problems. We show that revisions in the process coupling and closure assumption help to improve convergence in short simulations using the simplified model; the same revisions applied to a full atmosphere model lead to significant changes in the simulated long-term climate. This work demonstrates that causes of convergence issues in atmospheric simulations can be understood by combining analyses from physical and mathematical perspectives. Addressing convergence issues can help to obtain a discrete model that is more consistent with the intended representation of the physical phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing Power Grid Resilience with Causal Loops Diagram and Bayesian Networks

Enhancing power grid resilience through improved analysis and planning of Distributed Energy Resources is a key for power system planner. This paper explores the integration of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) and Bayesian Networks (BNs) for enhancing resilience in power systems, focusing on Distributed Energy Resources (DER) planning. By automating CLD analysis in Python's matplotlib, we present a tool for rapid model validation and structural accuracy, crucial for power system planners. This hybrid approach utilizes BNs for inferential depth and CLDs for dynamic system modeling, offering a comprehensive framework for policy formulation and collaborative strategy development against disruptions. Here, we highlight the tool's capability to identify and analyze interconnected feedback loops, facilitating a deeper understanding of DER integration's impact on network resilience. This work aims to bridge quantitative analysis and qualitative insights, addressing the limitations of each method while providing a robust model for power system resilience assessment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Power Transmission Lines Hardening Scenarios Using a Machine Learning Approach

The power transmission infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather events, particularly hurricanes and tropical storms. A recent example is the damage caused by Hurricane Maria (H-Maria) in the archipelago of Puerto Rico in September 2017, where major failures in the transmission infrastructure led to a total blackout. Numerous studies have been conducted to examine strategies to strengthen the transmission system, including burying the power lines underground or increasing the frequency of tree trimming. However, few studies focus on the direct hardening of the transmission towers to accomplish an increase in resiliency. This machine learning-based study fills this need by analyzing three direct hardening scenarios and determining the effectiveness of these changes in the context of H-Maria. A methodology for estimating transmission tower damage is presented here in this study as well as an analysis of impact of replacing structures with a high failure rate with more resilient ones. We found the steel self-support-pole to be the best replacement option for the towers with high failure rate. Furthermore, the third hardening scenario, where all wooden poles were replaced, exhibited a maximum reduction in damaged towers in a single line of 66% while lowering the mean number of damaged towers per line by 10%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced Precision in Geothermal Reservoir Characterization and Exploitation

The objective of this project is to demonstrate how enhanced analytical and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms can play a critical role in all phases of geothermal resource development including 1) exploration, 2) exploitation, 3) maintenance, and 4) electric grid integration. A secondary goal, but one that in all likelihood will become more impactful, is to repurpose Introspective System's open source research and deployment architecture, xGraph™, so that is capable of significantly accelerating both the research as well as the deployment of operational systems for exploiting our nation’s vast geothermal resources. This development framework could be used to accelerate deployment by commercial operational enterprises.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Coupling of Sph and Finite Element Codes for Multi-Layer Orbital Debris Shield Design

Particle-based hydrodynamics models offer distinct advantages over Eulerian and Lagrangian hydrocodes in particular shock physics applications. Particle models are designed to avoid the mesh distortion and state variable diffusion problems which can hinder the effective use of Lagrangian and Eulerian codes respectively. However conventional particle-in-cell and smooth particle hydrodynamics methods employ particles which are actually moving interpolation points. A new particle-based modeling methodology, termed Hamiltonian particle hydrodynamics, was developed by Fahrenthold and Koo (1997) to provide an alternative, fully Lagrangian, energy-based approach to shock physics simulations. This alternative formulation avoids the tensile and boundary instabilities associated with standard smooth particle hydrodynamics formulations and the diffusive grid- to-particle mapping schemes characteristic of particle-in-cell methods. In the work described herein, the method of Fahrenthold and Koo has been extended, by coupling the aforementioned hydrodynamic particle model to a hexahedral finite element based description of the continuum dynamics. The resulting continuum model retains all of the features (including general contact-impact effects) of Hamiltonian particle hydrodynamics, while in addition accounting for tensile strength, plasticity, and damage effects important in the simulation of hypervelocity impact on orbital debris shielding. A three dimensional, vectorized, and autotasked implementation of the extended particle method described here has been coded for application to orbital debris shielding design. Source code for the pre-processor (PREP), analysis code (EXOS), post-processor (POST), and rezoner (ZONE), have been delivered separately, along with a User's Guide describing installation and application of the software.

Fahrenthold, Eric P.↗

Computation of Transonic Flows Using Potential Methods

The proposed paper will describe the state of the art associated with numerical solution of the full or exact velocity potential equation for solving transonic, external-aerodynamic flows. The presentation will begin with a review of the literature emphasizing research activities of the past decade. Next, the various forms of the full or exact velocity potential equation, the equation's corresponding mathematical characteristics, and the derivation assumptions will be presented and described in detail. Impact of the derivation assumptions on simulation accuracy, especially with respect to shock wave capture, will be presented and discussed relative to the more complete Euler or Navier-Stokes formulations. The technical presentation will continue with a description of recently developed full potential numerical approach characteristics. This description will include governing equation nondimensionalization, physical-to-computational-domain mapping procedures, a limited description of grid generation requirements, the spatial discretization scheme, numerical implementation of boundary conditions, and the iteration scheme. The next portion of the presentation will present and discuss numerical results for several two- and three-dimensional aerodynamic applications. Included in the results section will be a discussion and demonstration of a typical grid refinement analysis for determining spatial convergence of the numerical solution and level of solution accuracy. Computer timings for a variety of full potential applications will be compared and contrasted with similar results for the Euler equation formulation. Finally. the presentation will end with concluding remarks and recommendations for future work.

Hoist, Terry L.↗

Methodology Report of Cost Benefit Analysis of Space Based Solar Power

Space-based solar power (SBSP) is the concept of gathering power in space and transmitting it wirelessly to users on Earth or elsewhere in space. SBSP has seen renewed interest from governments, businesses, and universities for reasons including persistent operations in space, achieving carbon neutrality targets, and more. Several major government agencies in Europe, Asia, and the Americas have renewed their SBSP investigations, and hundreds of millions of dollars have been donated to universities to advance the technical state of the art. Given the renewed interest, this study will identify and update some key system parameters to current performance levels. This paper presents the methodology and approach to identify the fiscal and environmental costs and benefits of SBSP when compared to other sustainable and grid-scale energy sources. From these divergent angles the models evaluate fiscal and environmental impacts, identify the state of the most sensitive parameters of the designs, and seek to provide context to leadership on the relative value of pursuing SBSP related technologies.

Space-based solar power↗

The anisotropic redistribution of free energy for gyrokinetic plasma turbulence in a Z-pinch

For a Z-pinch geometry, we report on the nonlinear redistribution of free energy across scales perpendicular to the magnetic guide field, for a turbulent plasma described in the framework of gyrokinetics. The analysis is performed using a local flux-surface approximation, in a regime dominated by electrostatic fluctuations driven by the entropy mode, with both ion and electron species being treated kinetically. To explore the anisotropic nature of the free energy redistribution caused by the emergence of zonal flows, we use a polar coordinate representation for the field-perpendicular directions and define an angular density for the scale flux. Positive values for the classically defined (angle integrated) scale flux, which denote a direct energy cascade, are shown to be also composed of negative angular sections, a fact that impacts our understanding of the backscatter of energy and the way in which it enters the modeling of sub-grid scales for turbulence. A definition for the flux of free energy across each perpendicular direction is introduced as well, which shows that the redistribution of energy in the presence of zonal flows is highly anisotropic.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Resilient Integrated Resource Planning Framework for Transmission Systems: Analysis and Optimization

This article presents a resilient Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) framework designed for transmission systems, with a specific focus on analyzing and optimizing responses to High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) events. The framework aims to improve the resilience of transmission networks in the face of extreme events by prioritizing the assessment of events with significant consequences. Unlike traditional reliability-based planning methods that average the impact of various outage durations, this work adopts a metric based on the proximity of outage lines to generators to select HILP events. The system’s baseline resilience is evaluated by calculating load curtailment in different parts of the network resulting from HILP outage events. The transmission network is represented as an undirected graph. Graph-theoretic techniques are used to identify islands with or without generators, potentially forming segmented grids or microgrids. This article introduces Expected Load Curtailment (ELC) as a metric to quantify the system’s resilience. The framework allows for the re-evaluation of system resilience by integrating additional generating resources to achieve desired resilience levels. Optimization is performed in the re-evaluation stage to determine the optimal placement of distributed energy resources (DERs) for enhancing resilience, i.e., minimizing ELC. Case studies on the IEEE 24-bus system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. In the broader context, this resilient IRP framework aligns with energy sustainability goals by promoting robust and resilient transmission networks, as the optimal placement of DERs for resilience enhancement not only strengthens the system’s ability to withstand and recover from disruptions but also contributes to efficient resource utilization, advancing the overarching goal of energy sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Stability of stagnation via an expanding accretion shock wave

Stagnation of a cold plasma streaming to the center or axis of symmetry via an expanding accretion shock wave is ubiquitous in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and high-energy-density plasma physics, the examples ranging from plasma flows in x-ray-generating Z pinches [Maron et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 035001 (2013)] to the experiments in support of the recently suggested concept of impact ignition in ICF [Azechi et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 102, 235002 (2009); Murakami et al., Nucl. Fusion 54, 054007 (2014)]. Some experimental evidence indicates that stagnation via an expanding shock wave is stable, but its stability has never been studied theoretically. We present such analysis for the stagnation that does not involve a rarefaction wave behind the expanding shock front and is described by the classic ideal-gas Noh solution in spherical and cylindrical geometry. In either case, the stagnated flow has been demonstrated to be stable, initial perturbations exhibiting a power-law, oscillatory or monotonic, decay with time for all the eigenmodes. This conclusion has been supported by our simulations done both on a Cartesian grid and on a curvilinear grid in spherical coordinates. Dispersion equation determining the eigenvalues of the problem and explicit formulas for the eigenfunction profiles corresponding to these eigenvalues are presented, making it possible to use the theory for hydrocode verification in two and three dimensions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Analysis of Multi-Output Hybrid Energy Systems Interacting with the Grid: Application of Improved Price-Taker and Price-Maker Approaches to Nuclear-Hydrogen Systems

The growing recognition of the value of hydrogen as an energy intermediate in supporting future power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy has prompted many studies to quantify the economic potential of multi-output hybrid systems, which are one type of integrated energy systems (IES). Because of the complexity of modeling multiple sectors, these studies typically use simplified modeling approaches to capture the interactions between sectors. In this study, we explore the implications of alternative modeling approaches for nuclear-hydrogen IES focusing on a power system in the Midwest United States. We combine highly resolved capacity expansion and production cost modeling tools of the power system with a detailed hydrogen system optimization tool to determine the optimal electrolyzer and storage sizing and optimal operations of the nuclear-hydrogen hybrid resource across three future study years. We compare economic and operational outcomes across a spectrum of modeling approaches, including a non-hybridized base approach; a traditional price-taker approach that does not include the impact of hydrogen production on the electricity system; a power-system-focused price-maker approach that does not account for temporal hydrogen constraints; and two improved price-taker and price-maker approaches that each address the impact of revenue-optimal levels of electricity production on the resulting power system and temporal hydrogen constraints on the overall feasible solution. Results show how a traditional price-taker approach can overestimate the economic benefits of multi-output nuclear-hydrogen IES compared to our two improved approaches that estimate both hydrogen system constraints and power system interaction. We find that hydrogen output requirements and storage size limits are key drivers to overall operations and some economic outcomes. Under our assumed constant hydrogen output requirement, storage costs, test system, and modeling approaches, our results indicate that hybridization can provide a net benefit, but results are sensitive to the treatment of hydrogen revenues and electricity prices as impacted by the power system evolution.

capacity expansion modeling↗

Detecting Extreme Events in Gridded Climate Data

Detecting and tracking extreme events in gridded climatological data is a challenging problem on several fronts: algorithms, scalability, and I/O. Successful detection of these events will give climate scientists an alternate view of the behavior of different climatological variables, leading to enhanced scientific understanding of the impacts of events such as heat and cold waves, and on a larger scale, the El Nin o Southern Oscillation. Recent advances in computing power and research in data sciences enabled us to look at this problem with a different perspective from what was previously possible. In this paper we present our computationally efficient algorithms for anomalous cluster detection on climate change big data. We provide results on detection and tracking of surface temperature and geopotential height anomalies, a trend analysis, and a study of relationships between the variables. We also identify the limitations of our approaches, future directions for research and alternate approaches.

climate extremes temperature anomalies reanalysis↗

Optimization of distributed compute resources utilization in the CMS Global Pool

The CMS Submission Infrastructure is the primary system for managing computing resources for CMS workflows, including data processing, simulation, and analysis. It integrates geographically distributed resources from Grid, HPC, and cloud providers into federated pools managed by HTCondor and Glidein- WMS, for a total of around 500k CPU cores. This system dynamically manages workloads based on priorities defined by the collaboration. Additionally, CMS scheduling strategies must be flexible to handle multiple concurrent workloads while considering changing processing demands and resource availability from various providers.Efficient utilization of vast amounts of distributed compute resources is a key element for the success of the scientific programs of the LHC experiments. Optimizing the system is essential to maximize resource efficiency and fully utilize the distributed computing power. The CMS Submission Infrastructure team thus systematically investigates sources of inefficiency in workload scheduling to reduce their impact. In addition, a strategy of pilot overloading has been introduced to compensate for other inefficiency sources, thereby optimizing resource utilization and enhancing computational throughput.

Mascheroni, Marco [UC, San Diego (main)]↗

Dispersion of Radionuclides and Exposure Assessment in Urban Environments: A Joint CEA and LLNL Report

In the interest of promoting the international exchange of technical expertise, the US Department of Energy’s Office of Emergency Operations (NA-40) and the French Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) requested that the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in Livermore, California host a joint table top exercise with experts in emergency management and atmospheric transport modeling. In this table top exercise, LLNL and CEA compared each other’s flow and dispersion models. The goal of the comparison is to facilitate the exchange of knowledge, capabilities, and practices, and to demonstrate the utility of modeling dispersal at different levels of computational fidelity. Two modeling approaches were examined, a regional scale modeling approach, appropriate for simple terrain and/or very large releases, and an urban scale modeling approach, appropriate for small releases in a city environment. This report is a summary of LLNL and CEA modeling efforts from this exercise. Two different types of LLNL and CEA models were employed in the analysis: urban-scale models (Aeolus CFD at LLNL/NARAC and Parallel- Micro-SWIFT-SPRAY, PMSS, at CEA) for analysis of a 5,000 Ci radiological release and Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Models (LODI at LLNL/NARAC and PSPRAY at CEA) for analysis of a much larger (500,000 Ci) regional radiological release. Two densely-populated urban locations were chosen: Chicago with its high-rise skyline and gridded street network and Paris with its more consistent, lower building height and complex unaligned street network. Each location was considered under early summer daytime and nighttime conditions. Different levels of fidelity were chosen for each scale: (1) lower fidelity mass-consistent diagnostic, intermediate fidelity Navier-Stokes RANS models, and higher fidelity Navier-Stokes LES for urban-scale analysis, and (2) lower-fidelity single-profile meteorology versus higher-fidelity three-dimensional gridded weather forecast for regional-scale analysis. Tradeoffs between computation time and the fidelity of the results are discussed for both scales. LES, for example, requires nearly 100 times more processor time than the mass-consistent diagnostic model or the RANS model, and seems better able to capture flow entrainment behind tall buildings. As anticipated, results obtained by LLNL and CEA at regional scale around Chicago and Paris look very similar in terms of both atmospheric dispersion of the radiological release and total effective dose. Both LLNL and CEA used the same meteorological data, Lagrangian particle dispersion models, and the same dose coefficients. LLNL and CEA urban-scale modeling results show consistent phenomenological behavior and predict similar impacted areas even though the detailed 3D flow patterns differ, particularly for the Chicago cases where differences in vertical entrainment behind tall buildings are particularly notable. Although RANS and LES (LLNL) models incorporate more detailed physics than do mass-consistent diagnostic flow models (CEA), it is not possible to reach definite conclusions about the prediction fidelity of the various models as experimental measurements were not available for comparison. Stronger conclusions about the relative performances of the models involved and evaluation of the tradeoffs involved in model simplification could be made with a systematic benchmarking of urban-scale modeling. This could be the purpose of a future US / French collaborative exercise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New Industry Partnerships: Solar Energy Technologies Office Support for Early Projects in the Energy Systems Integration Facility: An Agreement Closeout Summary Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO)-funded New Industry Partnerships (NIPs) agreement established multiple new cooperative research projects with industry partners. Each project demonstrated the use of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) as a national asset for research and development, testing, and validation of new technologies to support high penetrations of solar energy on the electric grid. The agreement was launched in 2013 and represented the SETO portion of the DOE EERE-wide Integrated Network Testbed for Energy Grid Research and Technology Experimentation (INTEGRATE) program. The focus of INTEGRATE was on multi-energy system testing and on testing the interactions of energy systems with information technology, communications, and telecommunications (ICT) systems. The NIPs agreement was a bit different from traditional research projects because it was specifically structured to enable partnerships for ESIF testing and as such required at least a 1:1 funds-in cost share from industry partners. In the end, the project engaged six different industry partnerships and resulted in testing a large number of innovative technologies. These included tiny inverters; power-to-gas technologies; and advanced simulation, analysis, and power-hardware-in-the-loop testing techniques. The agreement also provided significant impact for both research and industrial communities. This summary report provides a brief, high-level overview of these projects and their highlights along with lists of citations and other impacts. Readers are referred to the corresponding project reports for more in-depth information.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Hewitson, Bruce↗