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At least 811 records · Page 45

Generalization of Deep-Learning Models for Classification of Local Distance Earthquakes and Explosions across Various Geologic Settings

Although accurately classifying signals from earthquakes and explosions at local distance (<250 km) remains an important task for seismic network operations, the growing volume of available seismic data presents a challenge for analysts using traditional source discrimination techniques. In recent years, deep-learning models have proven effective at discriminating between low-magnitude earthquakes and explosions measured at local distances, but it is not clear how well these models are capable of generalizing across different geological settings. To address the issue of generalization between regions, we train deep-learning models (convolutional neural networks [CNNs]) on time–frequency representations (scalograms) of three-component earthquake and explosion signals from eight different regions in the continental United States. We explore scenarios where models are trained on data from all regions, individual regions, or all but one region. We find that although CNN models trained on individual regions do not necessarily generalize well across different settings, models trained on multiple regions that include diverse path coverage generalize to new regions, with station-level accuracy of up to 90% or more for data sets from unseen regions. In general, CNN-based discrimination models significantly outperform models based on uncorrected P/S ratio (measured in the 10–18 Hz frequency band), even when CNN models are tested on data from entirely unseen regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Intermountain West Energy Sustainability & Transitions Initiative: CO2 Transport and Geologic Storage Modeling Results

These resources provide the full set of cost modeling results and methods as part of the I-WEST Roadmap Initiative that were used to compile figures as part of the "Pathways to CO2 Utilization and Storage for the Intermountain West Region" chapter. The data were generated from a series of National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) cost models and relate to carbon dioxide (CO2) transport costs, CO2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) economics, and saline storage economics. These models were used to analyze various business cases given changes in technical and financial assumptions for the I-WEST region as a means to explore how these assumptions influence CO2 transport and storage costs, as well as to evaluate the effect of changing oil prices on the viability of CO2-EOR and the mass of CO2 stored via CO2-EOR. The accompanying report titled "Intermountain West Energy Sustainability & Transitions Initiative: CO2 Transport and Geologic Storage Modeling Results" provides a detailed overview on the models, assumptions, and parameters used in the modeling, as well as example results..

CO2 EOR costs,CO2 Storage Costs,CO2 transportation↗

Quantifying the Potential Atmospheric Leakage Risks Associated With the Geologic Storage of CO 2 in Saline Aquifers for Use in Voluntary Carbon Market Buffer Account Determination

Conference paper presented at 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-17), Calgary, Alberta, Canada, October 20–24, 2024. This paper presents the results of a detailed study into the potential atmospheric leakage risks associated with the geologic storage of CO 2 in saline aquifers. This study included a detailed literature review, a re-creation of existing CO 2 leakage models put forth by other authors and, lastly, the development of an enhanced model that can be utilized for assessing the potential losses to the atmosphere of stored CO 2 across a variety of potential project parameters. The results of this study indicate that, across broad ranges of input parameters for mechanisms that have the potential for CO 2 loss from the storage complex to the atmosphere, there is an extremely low risk of CO 2 leakage to the atmosphere, with the median leakage risk estimated to be 0.1% of total injected CO 2 . The risk of leakage from real-world storage projects is likely to be even lower than those estimated through this study.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Inverting infrasound data for the seismoacoustic source time functions and surface spall at the Source Physics Experiments Phase II: Dry Alluvium Geology

This report presents the infrasound data recorded as part of the Source Physics Experiment - Phase 2, Dry Alluvium Geology. This experiment, also known colloquially as DAG, consisted of four underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We focus our analysis on only the fourth explosion (DAG-4) as we determined that this was the only event that produced clear source-generated infrasound energy as recorded by the DAG sensors. We analyze the data using two inversion methods. The first method is designed to estimate the point-source seismoacoustic source time functions, and the second inversion method is designed to estimate the first-order characteristics (e.g. horizontal dimensions and maximum amplitude) of the actual spall surface. For both analysis methods, we are able to fit the data reasonably well, with various assumptions of the source model. The estimated seismoacoustic source appears to be a combination of a buried, isotropic explosion with a maximum amplitude of ~2 x 10 9 Nm and a vertically oriented force, applied to the Earth's surface with a maximum amplitude of 4 x 10 7 N. We use the vertically oriented force to simulate surface spall. The estimated spall surface has an approximate radius of ~40 m with a maximum acceleration magnitude in the range of 0.8 to 1.5 m/s/s. These estimates are approximately similar to the measured surface acceleration at the site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Geology and Design of Major Spent Fuel Repositories

This report summarizes the geology and design concepts of four major spent fuel repositories from around the world. The crystalline rock with bentonite backfill is currently implemented in Finland with another repository being constructed in Sweden. The salt formation design focuses on the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) repository in the United States. The volcanic tuff open air design is based on the Yucca Mountain location. The volcanic tuff open air design at Yucca Mountain is only a concept as this repository has not been approved for operations. The last spent fuel repository design, clay/shale formation with backfill, focuses on the Cigeo Project in France, which is also pending.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Represent precipitation-induced geological hazards in Earth system models using artificial intelligence

Precipitation-induced geological hazards, such as debris flow, landslides, mudflow and rockfalls (hereafter referred to as landslides), pose serious threats to public safety in many areas through the world. As residential properties and infrastructure in the US have increasingly expanded into landslide-prone areas and the drivers of landslides (e.g., wildfires and hurricanes) are predicted to intensify under climate warming, losses and fatalities from landslides are likely to increase in the future. Although our understanding of geoenvironmental factors and mechanisms contributing to landslides has greatly improved, only moderate progress has been made in predicting landslides out of well-studied watersheds. Furthermore, explicitly representing various landslide-related processes in Earth system models (ESMs), from the buckling of local bearing elements in granular materials, to frictional sliding between grains, formation of microcracks in the soil matrix, rupture of capillary bridges, or breakage of plant roots3 is still very unlikely within the next decade, even with the help of exascale computers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical Simulations of Geologic Storage Reservoir Management to Support Risk Mitigation Evaluation

This report provides a detailed description of a set of numerical simulations that represent reservoir behavior over time in response to different operational decision scenarios for detection of potential leakage and reduction or avoidance of leakage impact at a hypothetical geological carbon storage (GCS) site. These simulations serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), and a demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for evaluation of mitigation strategies based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming. Four injection scenarios were considered: a constant rate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection case (base case), a case with CO 2 injection rate adjustment, a case with early termination of injection operations, and a case with brine extraction. CO 2 injection operations were controlled to ensure that the pressure transient remains below the defined manageable reservoir fracture pressure, with consideration shown to hypothetical locations within the modeled spatial domain where the overburden was weaker and lower transient pressure increases were allowable. Additionally, a brine extraction alternative was considered as a reservoir management and risk mitigation option to reduce reservoir pressure, steer the plume away from any hypothetical geohazard such as fault as needed, and enhance storage capacity. Such operational actions contribute to risk management overtime. This study explores the potential utility of reservoir management for risk reduction at GCS sites. This study shows that the injection design may modify the time to CO 2 breakthrough at a legacy well; in particular, these results show that brine extraction can add value for mitigating risk both by delaying leakage and reducing pressure build-up. For the scenario considered, both pressure plots and pressure distributions demonstrate that pressure build-up was decreased by 3% with brine extraction. Additionally, extraction of brine afforded enhancement of CO 2 storage capacity by 5% compared to the base case. These findings suggest that brine extraction has substantial potential to steer the risk-related reservoir effects away from known geohazards (e.g., faults and legacy wells) by conducting pressure transient effects and CO 2 plume movement toward the production well. Injection rate adjustment scenarios considered in this study show potential value for managing both reservoir pressure transients and CO 2 plume behavior. Operational actions for reducing injection and/or early termination of injection (as compared to the base case), however, require careful design; tailoring both the extent and timing of injection rate adjustment over the injection and post-injection operational period must be thoroughly planned to balance maximizing storage and minimizing subsurface environmental risk. The study also gives preliminary consideration to the effectiveness that monitoring strategy may play in providing useful information to inform reservoir management decisions for risk reduction. Two types of monitoring were considered: 1) pressure build-up or pressure transient; and 2) potential leakage detection from a CO 2 mass or plume. Four hypothetical legacy wells, two plugged and two abandoned, were placed in the model domain. Monitoring along these wells was measured over time in individual stacked reservoir formations and shale formations to support risk mitigation decisions, especially operational decisions that assisted in risk reduction. These simulations will serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using NRAP’s Open-IAM, and demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for comparative assessment of mitigation alternatives based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geologic Assessment and Recommended New Well Locations to Improve the Area 25 Potable Water System, Nevada National Security Site

The Mission Support and Test Services, LLC (MSTS) Geoscience Operations Group performed a hydrogeologic study of an area of interest in Area 25 at the request of the MSTS Enterprise Infrastructure Program to identify potential locations for a new water well to replace J-14 Water Well (J-14 WW). Based on limited subsurface hydrogeologic data for the area, geologists developed two options for construction of a new well. Option 1 is to construct the well within approximately 250 feet (ft) of J-14 WW, and Option 2 is to construct the well approximately 1,550 ft north of J-11 Water Well (J-11 WW). Option 1 may be preferred, as the hydrogeology is better understood adjacent to an existing well. A well drilled at the Option 2 location would not have to be as deep as that at the Option 1 location, but the hydrogeologic setting is more uncertain at this greater distance from a verified subsurface geologic data point.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sensitivity Analysis Comparisons on Geologic Case Studies: An International Collaboration

Over the past four years, an informal working group has developed to investigate existing sensitivity analysis methods, examine new methods, and identify best practices. The focus is on the use of sensitivity analysis in case studies involving geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel or nuclear waste. To examine ideas and have applicable test cases for comparison purposes, we have developed multiple case studies. Four of these case studies are presented in this report: the GRS clay case, the SNL shale case, the Dessel case, and the IBRAE groundwater case. We present the different sensitivity analysis methods investigated by various groups, the results obtained by different groups and different implementations, and summarize our findings.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

External Review Committee Report on the California Geological Survey

In May and June of 2021, the External Review Committee (ERC) assessed the activities and major programs of the California Geological Survey (CGS). The ERC reviewed materials from the five CGS program areas and upper management, as well as online presentations from program leaders and the California Department of Conservation (DOC), which oversees CGS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Intelligent Monitoring System for Real-time Geologic Storage, Optimization, and Reservoir Management

The objective of the subtask was to develop a near-real-time monitoring system for seismic data at the Decatur, IL, geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) site and specifically include fiber-optic cable derived distributed acoustic signal (DAS) data in the process. Owing to the large volumes of data, we opted to utilize existing deep borehole conventional seismic sensors for detection and pull DAS and shallow borehole seismic data once a detection has been made. Unfortunately, the horizontal fiber-optic cables did not yield microseismic signals for use in locating events near the GCS site. Various stacking and filtering approaches were tested without any coherent detection becoming apparent. We attribute the insensitivity to local microseismic events to a lack of coupling in downhole, vertical cable and the non-ideal alignment of the horizontal fiber-optic cable to the vertically polarized seismic energy. Despite the inability to detect and utilize the DAS data from the fiber-optic cables, we developed a general processing framework that enables easy adaptation for future deployment of fiber-optic cables with better suited alignment at Decatur or elsewhere.

Kaven, J. Ole↗

A Non-Invasive Approach for Elucidating the Spatial Distribution of In-Situ Stress in Deep Subsurface Geologic Formations Considered for CO 2 Storage (Final Report)

The primary objectives of this project were to: develop a new, non-invasive method to define the orientation and magnitude of in-situ stresses in deep geologic formations (depths that exceed 1500 meters) considered for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration; to demonstrate the method at a real field site; and, to extend current technical capabilities and reduce costs of acquiring information about deep-stress fields. This investigation was segmented into five tasks, including Project Management (Task 1) and four technical tasks (Tasks 2 through 5). The results of the technical tasks are described in this document.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Wabash CarbonSAFE. Geologic Analysis of the Potosi Dolomite Reservoir Interval and Potential Confining Units, at the Wabash #1 Well, Vigo Co., Indiana, Subtask 7.2, Technical Report

The Wabash CarbonSAFE project drilled the Wabash #1 stratigraphic test well (ID# 168045) at the Wabash Valley Resources (WVR) IGCC facility in Vigo County, Indiana, to evaluate the feasibility of commercial-scale CO 2 storage near the site. The Mt. Simon Sandstone was the initial target for storage evaluation and was found to have generally poor reservoir qualities in the Wabash #1 well. Focus was then placed on the secondary target, the Potosi Dolomite. For storage and containment evaluation an extensive suite of geophysical logs was collected throughout the borehole, and whole cores were obtained from the Mt. Simon Sandstone, Eau Claire Formation, and Maquoketa Group. The Maquoketa Group is identified as a regionally extensive secondary sealing interval above the Mt. Simon Sandstone and as a primary seal for the Potosi Dolomite storage complex. Due to concerns over potential lost circulation zones in the Potosi Dolomite during drilling, no core samples or Formation Micro Imager (FMI) logs were acquired in the Potosi Dolomite. However, cased hole well testing was performed over a 20 feet (6 m) interval within the Potosi Dolomite during which a fluid swab sample was obtained. Approximately 35 miles of 2D seismic information was acquired in the project area near Wabash #1 to aid in reservoir and caprock characterization. The highly porous and permeable zones in the Potosi Dolomite and lower Oneota Dolomite observed within the Wabash #1 well are, for the purpose of this report, considered the same reservoir package and referred to as the Potosi reservoir interval. This report presents a regional depositional context for the Potosi reservoir interval, the overlying confining zones in the Knox Group, and Maquoketa Group primary seal. This context is developed through detailed information obtained from the Wabash #1 well such as lithologic data collected from cuttings and core, geophysical logging, geomechanical analysis of core samples, and well testing and fluid sampling within the Potosi reservoir interval. Information discussed in this report was compiled as a basis for the development of static and dynamic geologic models of the Potosi Dolomite storage complex. The static and dynamic modeling of CO 2 injection in the Potosi reservoir interval are discussed in a separate report (Dessenberger et al., 2022) under the Wabash CarbonSAFE project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Rules and Tools Crosswalk: A Compendium of Computational Tools to Support Geologic Carbon Storage Environmentally Protective UIC Class VI Permitting

This report identifies computational tools useful for addressing aspects of the dedicated carbon storage (Class VI) well permit application under the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program. The survey was conducted by researchers of the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) Research and Innovation Center in collaboration with representatives of the U.S. EPA, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and the four Regional Initiatives to Accelerate Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership of the Western United States (CUSP), Plains CO 2 Reduction Partnership Initiative to Accelerate Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Deployment (PCOR Partnership), Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI), and the Southeast Regional Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership (SECARB-USA). A total of 59 tools were identified through the elicitation for this report. It is intended to serve as a reference that can be used by geologic carbon storage stakeholders to identify computational tools that may be used to develop Class VI permit applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Non-Invasive Approach for Elucidating the Spatial Distribution of In-Situ Stress in Deep Subsurface Geologic Formations Considered for CO 2 Storage (Task 3 Report Laboratory Characterization of Stress Dependent Wavespeed)

This report presents a summary of Task 3 (Laboratory Experimental Characterization of Stress Dependent Wavespeed in Rocks and Application for In-Situ Stress Estimation) of the project titled “A Non-Invasive Approach for Elucidating the Spatial Distribution of In-Situ Stress in Deep Subsurface Geologic Formations Considered for CO 2 Storage”. The main objective of this component of the project was to employ non-destructive techniques to determine how compressional (P)-wave and shear (S)-wave propagation velocities are related to triaxial-stress conditions in laboratory test samples of targeted reservoir rocks. The overarching principle is that such laboratory measurements can provide a basis whereby field measurements of wave-propagation velocities in rocks can be used to ascertain the stress state that would be expected to generate the observed wave-propagation behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Non-Invasive Approach for Elucidating the Spatial Distribution of In Situ Stress in Deep Subsurface Geologic Formations Considered for CO 2 Storage (Task 5 Report Field Scale Stress Modeling)

This report describes research accomplishments achieved with funding provided through Department of Energy (DOE) Contract DE-FE0031686, for the project “A Non-Invasive Approach for Elucidating the Spatial Distribution of In Situ Stress in Deep Subsurface Geologic Formations Considered for CO 2 Storage.” The purpose of this DOE funding is to develop non-invasive methods to obtain important information about subsurface stresses. The overall research goal of the project was to develop and improve methods for determining the spatial distribution of stresses, including magnitude and orientation of the three principal stress components in the subsurface, based on new methods that extract stress information from seismic data combined with well measurements, extended with well tests and logs, and unified in a numerical model that permits computation of the full stress tensor throughout the domains under investigation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deep Learning Accelerated History Matching and Forecasting in Geologic CO 2 Sequestration [Slides]

We have successfully developed a predictive workflow for the Geologic CO 2 Sequestration using a deep learning model based on the Fourier Neural Operator. The workflow has high accuracy for predicting pressure & saturation during the injection and post-injection periods and has decent accuracy for predicting water and CO 2 production rates during injection period. It is necessary to train exclusive DNN models for pressure prediction in long term GCS, but for saturation prediction, we can use a single model to predict it.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗