Parameter Inference and Forward Propagation of Uncertainties in Computational Models.
Abstract not provided.
Safta, Cosmin↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “forward modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Intrusion detection: systems and models
This paper puts forward a review of state of the art and state of the applicability of intrusion detection systems, and models. The paper also presents a classfication of literature pertaining to intrusion detection.
intrusion detection risk security↗
A half century historical review of the k-omega model
A brief historical review is presented tracing evolution of the k-omega two-equation turbulence model. The review compares the various k-omega models developed since 1942, and contrasts them to the well-known k-epsilon model. Straight-forward results based on perturbation analysis illustrate advantages offered by k-omega models for flows with adverse pressure gradient and for integration through the sublayer. As part of the historical perspective, the paper shows that Kolmogorov did remarkably well in formulating his model without the aid of a computer.
Wilcox, David C.↗
Forward sensitivity approach for estimating eddy viscosity closures in nonlinear model reduction
In this paper, we propose a variational approach to estimate eddy viscosity using forward sensitivity method (FSM) for closure modeling in nonlinear reduced order models. FSM is a data assimilation technique that blends model's predictions with noisy observations to correct initial state and/or model parameters. We apply this approach on a projection based reduced order model (ROM) of the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation with a square wave defining a moving shock, and the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation formulating a decay of Kraichnan turbulence. We investigate the capability of the approach to approximate an optimal value for eddy viscosity with different measurement configurations. Specifically, we show that our approach can sufficiently assimilate information either through full field or sparse noisy measurements to estimate eddy viscosity closure to cure standard Galerkin reduced order model (GROM) predictions. Therefore, our approach provides a modular framework to correct forecasting error from a sparse observational network on a latent space. We highlight that the proposed GROM-FSM framework is promising for emerging digital twin applications, where real-time sensor measurements can be used to update and optimize surrogate model's parameters.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Machine learning prediction on the fractional free volume of polymer membranes
Fractional free volume (FFV) characterizes the microstructural level features of polymers and affects their properties including thermal, mechanical, and separation performance. Experimental measurements and theoretical analyses have been used to quantify the FFV of polymers, but challenges remain because of their limitations. Experimental measurements are laborious and based on semi empirical equations, while Bondi’s group contribution theory involves ambiguities like the determination of van der Waals volume and the choice of factor values in the theoretical equation. To efficiently evaluate the FFV of polymers, this study utilizes high-throughput molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to build a large dataset regarding polymer’s FFV. Based on this large dataset, we further build machine learning (ML) models to establish the composition-structure relation. Inspired by group contribution theory which correlates polymer’s functional groups to FFV, our ML models correlate polymer’s substructures or physico-chemical indexes to FFV. Here, our study first benchmarks the MD simulation protocol to obtain reliable FFV of polymers and then carries out high-throughput MD simulations for more than 6,500 homopolymers and 1,400 polyamides. Such a large and diverse dataset makes the well-trained ML models more generalizable, compared with the group contribution theory. The efficiency of a feed forward neural network model is further demonstrated by applying it to a hypothetical polyimide dataset of more than 8 million chemical structures. The predicted FFVs of hypothetical polyimides are further validated by MD simulations. The obtained FFVs of the 8 million polymers, plus their previously reported gas separation performances, demonstrate the promising capability of ML virtual screening for the discovery of polymer membranes with exceptional permeability/selectivity.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Helicopter aeroelastic stability and response - Current topics and future trends
This paper presents several current topics in rotary wing aeroelasticity and concludes by attempting to anticipate future trends and developments. These topics are: (1) the role of geometric nonlinearities; (2) structural modeling, and aeroelastic analysis of composite rotor blades; (3) aeroelastic stability and response in forward flight; (4) modeling of coupled rotor/fuselage aeromechanical problems and their active control; and (5) the coupled rotor-fuselage vibration problem and its alleviation by higher harmonic control. Selected results illustrating the fundamental aspects of these topics are presented. Future developments are briefly discussed.
Friedmann, Peretz P.↗
SCExAO/CHARIS Near-IR High-Contrast Imaging and Integral Field Spectroscopy of the HIP 79977 Debris Disk
We present new, near-infrared (1.1–2.4 μm) high-contrast imaging of the bright debris disk surrounding HIP 79977 with the Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics system (SCExAO) coupled with the CHARIS integral field spectrograph. SCExAO/CHARIS resolves the disk down to smaller angular separations of (0".11; r ∼ 14 au) and at a higher significance than previously achieved at the same wavelengths. The disk exhibits a marginally significant east–west brightness asymmetry in H band that requires confirmation. Geometrical modeling suggests a nearly edge-on disk viewed at a position angle of ∼114°.6 east of north. The disk is best-fit by scattered-light models assuming strongly forward-scattering grains (g ∼ 0.5–0.65) confined to a torus with a peak density at r0 ∼ 53–75 au. We find that a shallow outer density power law of α(sub out) = −1 to −3 and flare index of β = 1 are preferred. Other disk parameters (e.g., inner density power law and vertical scale height) are more poorly constrained. The disk has a slightly blue intrinsic color and its profile is broadly consistent with predictions from birth ring models applied to other debris disks. While HIP 79977ʼs disk appears to be more strongly forward- scattering than most resolved disks surrounding 5–30 Myr old stars, this difference may be due to observational biases favoring forward-scattering models for inclined disks versus lower inclination, ostensibly neutral-scattering disks like HR 4796A’s. Deeper, higher signal-to-noise SCExAO/CHARIS data can better constrain the disk’s dust composition.
Goebel, Sean↗
Joint Assimilation of Surface, GEO, and LEO CO, NO2, and O3 In Situ and Partial Column/Profile Retrievals with WRF-Chem/DART
Low earth orbiting (LEO) satellites like OMI or TROPOMI and geostationary satellites like TEMPO (to be launched January 2023) provide ozone (O3) retrieval profiles that extend into the stratosphere. Regional models like WRF-Chem generally do not include the stratosphere and have vertical grids that end near the tropopause. This causes difficulties when assimilating O3 retrievals (both column and profile retrievals) because the respective observation forward operators require model O3 profiles that extend into the stratosphere. In this presentation, we look at results from assimilating O3 observation from surface (in situ measurements), multiple LEO (profile retrievals), and GEO (proxy profile retrievals) platforms in as regional model where we use a global chemical transport model (GCTM) to provide O3 upper boundary conditions (BCs) to enable application of the O3 observation forward operators. We will also present results from assimilating O3 retrievals together with carbon monoxide (CO) observations from surface (in situ measurements) and multiple LEO platforms (column and profile retrievals), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) observations from surface (in situ measurements), multiple LEO (column retrievals), and GEO (proxy column retrievals) platforms. Our joint assimilation experiments show that sometimes the observations complement each, e.g., when assimilating surface and satellite CO or NO2 observations, and sometimes the observations conflict with each other, e.g., when assimilating observations that are biased with respect to other observations (e.g., CO retrievals), or when the assimilation increments conflict due to their chemical interaction (e.g., surface O3 and NO2 retrievals). Results from assimilation of O3 retrieval profiles in regional model are preliminary and will also be discussed in our presentation. Our expectation is that using GCTM O3 as upper BCs in the regional model for evaluation of the O3 forward operator will improve our O3 forecasts. In summary, we will present results from jointly assimilating surface, LEO, and GEO CO, NO2, and O3 in situ and satellite observations in a regional model with dynamic emissions estimation. This study uses proxy GEO observations as a prelude to actual observations because the GEO platform will not be launched until after our presentation.
WRF-Chem/DART↗
Population Pharmacokinetics of Intranasal Scopolamine
Introduction: An intranasal gel dosage formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Space Motion Sickness (SMS).The bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) was evaluated using data collected in Phase II IND protocols. We reported earlier statistically significant gender differences in PK parameters of INSCOP at a dose level of 0.4 mg. To identify covariates that influence PK parameters of INSCOP, we examined population covariates of INSCOP PK model for 0.4 mg dose. Methods: Plasma scopolamine concentrations versus time data were collected from 20 normal healthy human subjects (11 male/9 female) after a 0.4 mg dose. Phoenix NLME was employed for PK analysis of these data using gender, body weight and age as covariates for model selection. Model selection was based on a likelihood ratio test on the difference of criteria (-2LL). Statistical significance for base model building and individual covariate analysis was set at P less than 0.05{delta(-2LL)=3.84}. Results: A one-compartment pharmacokinetic model with first-order elimination best described INSCOP concentration ]time profiles. Inclusion of gender, body weight and age as covariates individually significantly reduced -2LL by the cut-off value of 3.84(P less than 0.05) when tested against the base model. After the forward stepwise selection and backward elimination steps, gender was selected to add to the final model which had significant influence on absorption rate constant (ka) and the volume of distribution (V) of INSCOP. Conclusion: A population pharmacokinetic model for INSCOP has been identified and gender was a significant contributing covariate for the final model. The volume of distribution and Ka were significantly higher in males than in females which confirm gender-dependent pharmacokinetics of scopolamine after administration of a 0.4 mg dose.
Wu, L.↗
Conceptualizing the Impact of Dust Contaminated Infrared Radiances on Data Assimilation for Numerical Weather Prediction
Numerical weather prediction systems depend on Hyperspectral Infrared Sounder (HIS) data, yet the impacts of dust-contaminated HIS radiances on weather forecasts has not been quantified. To determine the impact of dust aerosol on HIS radiance assimilation, we use a modified radiance assimilation system employing a one-dimensional variational assimilation system (1DVAR) developed under the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Numerical Weather Prediction–Satellite Application Facility (NWP-SAF) project, which uses the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV). Dust aerosol impacts on analyzed temperature and moisture fields are quantified using synthetic HIS observations from rawinsonde, Micropulse Lidar Network (MPLNET), and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Specifically, a unit dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) contamination at 550 nm can introduce larger than 2.4 and 8.6 K peak biases in analyzed temperature and dewpoint, respectively, over our test domain. We hypothesize that aerosol observations, or even possibly forecasts from aerosol predication models, may be used operationally to mitigate dust induced temperature and moisture analysis biases through forward radiative transfer modeling.
Jared W. Marquis↗
Conceptualizing the Impact of Dust-Contaminated Infrared Radiances on Data Assimilation for Numerical Weather Prediction
Numerical weather prediction systems depend on Hyperspectral Infrared Sounder (HIS) data, yet the impacts of dust-contaminated HIS radiances on weather forecasts has not been quantified. To determine the impact of dust aerosol on HIS radiance assimilation, we use a modified radiance assimilation system employing a one-dimensional variational assimilation system (1DVAR) developed under the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Numerical Weather Prediction–Satellite Application Facility (NWP-SAF) project, which uses the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV). Dust aerosol impacts on analyzed temperature and moisture fields are quantified using synthetic HIS observations from rawinsonde, Micropulse Lidar Network (MPLNET), and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Specifically, a unit dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) contamination at 550 nm can introduce larger than 2.4 and 8.6 K peak biases in analyzed temperature and dewpoint, respectively, over our test domain. We hypothesize that aerosol observations, or even possibly forecasts from aerosol predication models, may be used operationally to mitigate dust induced temperature and moisture analysis biases through forward radiative transfer modeling.
Jared W Marquis↗
Quantifying System Level Impact of Connected and Automated Vehicles in an Urban Corridor
Numerous studies have demonstrated significant energy reduction for an ego vehicle by up to 20% leveraging Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) technologies [1-4]. Some studies have also analyzed the impact of such vehicles on the energy consumption of other vehicles in a suburban or a highway corridor [5, 6], but the impact in an urban setting has not been studied yet. Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), in collaboration with Continental and Hyundai, is currently working on a Department of Energy funded project that is focused on quantifying the impact of multiple ego vehicles (smart vehicles) on the total energy consumption of the corridor under various traffic conditions, vehicle electrification level, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) technology penetration, and the number of smart (ego) vehicles in an urban setting. A six-kilometer-long urban corridor from Columbus, Ohio was modeled and calibrated with real-world data in PTV Vissim traffic microsimulation software. Five forward-looking powertrain models, consisting of two battery electric vehicles (BEVs), a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), and two internal combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles, were developed to estimate the energy consumption of vehicles on the corridor. A comprehensive full factorial simulation study was performed. The simulation results indicate that for a traffic mix based on projected new vehicles sales in 2025, a 15% corridor-level energy consumption reduction can be achieved. The paper details the development and validation of the simulation framework, design of experiments conducted, a discussion of challenges faced, and results under various test conditions.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Predicting boron coordination in multicomponent borate and borosilicate glasses using analytical models and machine learning
Accurate prediction of boron coordination in multicomponent glasses is critical in glass science and technology as it strongly affects the properties of borate and borosilicate glasses. We have collected a dataset containing 657 glasses from literature with boron coordination values and developed models using analytical functions based on the well accepted Dell, Xiao and Bray model. Good prediction of boron coordination with a R 2 value higher than 0.8 was obtained. The large variation of boron coordination from experiments, originated from sample preparations and characterizations, led to difficulties in obtaining models with better prediction performance. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms were evaluated and slightly better prediction performance was observed; however, interpretation of the ML models is less straight forward. In conclusion, this study developed various models capable of providing quantitative boron coordination predictions, providing insights into its structural roles in multi-component glasses, and suggesting fruitful areas for future research.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Tenth-scale powered model test of a tilt-nacelle V/STOL airplane
Wind tunnel and ground static tests of a tenth scale powered model of a lift/cruise fan airplane have been conducted to define its low speed performances and handling qualities. The model was powered by three 5.5-in diameter turbopowered simulators; one located in the forebody while the remaining two were installed in tilting nacelles mounted on the aft body. Results are presented for static hover tests in ground effects with the model configured for VTOL operations and at forward speeds with the model configured for loiter, short takeoff, and VTOL operations.
Omar, M. E.↗
Active region flows
A wide range of observations has shown that active region phenomena in the photospheric, chromospheric and coronal temperature regimes are dynamical in nature. At the photosphere, recent observations of full line profiles place an upper limit of about + or - 20/msec on any downflows at supergranule cell edges. Observations of the full Stokes 5 profiles in the network show no evidence for downflows in magnetic flux tubes. In the area of chromospheric dynamics, several models were put forward recently to reproduce the observed behavior of spicules. However, it is pointed out that these adiabatic models do not include the powerful radiative dissipation which tend to damp out the large amplitude disturbances that produce the spicular acceleration in the models. In the corona, loop flows along field lines clearly transport mass and energy at rates important for the dynamics of these structures. However, advances in understanding the heating and mass balance of the loop structures seem to require new kinds of observations. Some results are presented using a remote sensing diagnostic of the intensity and orientation of macroscopic plasma electric fields predicted by models of reconnective heating and also wave heating.
Foukal, Peter↗
Full-Envelope Aero-Propulsive Model Identification for Lift+Cruise Aircraft Using Computational Experiments
This paper describes a process utilizing computational fluid dynamics experiments to develop a reduced-order, integrated propulsion-airframe aerodynamic model for a lift+cruise electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) reference aircraft concept. eVTOL configurations exhibit aerodynamic characteristics of both fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft as well as complex phenomena, such as propulsion-airframe interactions. Consequently, conventional aircraft aerodynamic modeling strategies require modification when applied to these unique aircraft. A novel aero-propulsive modeling approach using design of experiments techniques and computational fluid dynamics simulations is postulated for modeling a lift+cruise aircraft configuration. Aero-propulsive models are developed throughout the operational flight envelope to enable continuous flight dynamics simulations from hover through forward flight. The model adequacy is assessed using validation data acquired separately from data used to identify the model and indicates that the models have sufficient predictive capability. Research findings are presented with a discussion of unique lift+cruise aircraft aerodynamic characteristics and practical strategies to inform future aero-propulsive modeling and simulation efforts for eVTOL aircraft.
lift+cruise↗
Component-Level Inverse Design of Transmon Qubits Using Neural Networks
Designing a superconducting qubit to realize specific Hamiltonian parameters typically requires iterating through a time and compute-intensive forward loop in which the designer chooses a layout geometry, simulates it, extracts circuit parameters such as capacitances, and refines the geometry. We study the inverse version of this task using a neural-network workflow that maps target Hamiltonian parameters directly to component-level layout parameters, which we subsequently demonstrate on a planar transmon layout. During training, we pair the inverse model with a frozen forward surrogate model and evaluate the loss in Hamiltonian space rather than in layout-parameter space. In validation against a conventional EM solver, 97% of generated designs produce usable geometries, and the inverse-plus-surrogate pipeline reaches mean percent errors of 0.73% for qubit frequency and 1.58% for anharmonicity, comparable to or below the fabrication and simulation-to-measurement uncertainty expected for academic-process transmon devices of this type. A single pipeline query takes ~60 ms on CPU, versus ~2 min for a conventional EM capacitance extraction on the same hardware, a speedup of approximately 2,000x. Batching minimizes the AI model inference overhead, reducing the runtime to 3.1 microseconds per sample on CPU and 2.6 microseconds per sample on GPU at a batch size of 2048, resulting in speedups of 3.9 x 10^7 and 4.6 x 10^7, respectively, relative to a single conventional CPU EM extraction. Our results indicate that component-level inverse design usefully extends and complements conventional EM simulation, including for small datasets on the order of 1,000 samples.
Seidel, Olivia [Fermilab; Texas U., Arlington]↗
Invertible neural networks for E3SM land model calibration and simulation
We apply an invertible neural network (INN) for E3SM land model calibration and simulation with eight parameters at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. INN provides bijective (two-way) mappings between inputs and outputs, thus it can solve probabilistic inverse problems and forward approximations simultaneously. We demonstrate INN's inverse and forward capability in both synthetic and real-data applications. Results indicate that INN produces accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling and it generates model outputs close to the forward model simulations. Additionally, both the inverse and forward evaluations in INN are computationally efficient which allows for rapid integration of observations for parameter estimation and fast model predictions.
Lu, Dan↗