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NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models↗
NASA NTRS1994

Deflections of anisotropic sandwich beams with variable face sheets and core thicknesses

A sandwich construction consists of a low-density core material with high strength face sheets bounded to the top and bottom surfaces. The construction has been widely used in the aerospace and marine industries due to its outstanding characteristics such as noise absorption, weight minimization, heat insulation, and better bending stiffness. In sandwich structures used in high-performance aircraft, the face sheets are often made of fiber-reinforced composite materials and the core is made of honeycomb. The structures may also have variable thickness so as to satisfy aerodynamic requirements. In the stress analysis, the constant-thickness face sheets are usually considered as membrane and the core is assumed to be inextensible but deformable in the thickness direction. The static behavior of variable-thickness, isotropic and homogeneous sandwich beams was successfully studied by employing a constant-thickness theory but allowing stiffnesses to vary in accordance with local thickness variations. It has been recently found in a refined theory that the analyses based on the constant thickness theory locally can lead to significant errors in structural responses if the sandwich beam is thickness-tapered and the cores are deformable in transverse shear. The errors arise mainly from two factors: (1) the transverse shear components of the membrane forces in the face sheets alter the transverse shears carried by the core; and (2) the face-sheet membrane strains arise from transverse shear deformation of the core. In practice the variable thickness may not only exist in core but also in face sheets. The thickness-variations may even be a type of step function. In this case the transverse shear stress in the face sheets and bending stress in the core should be taken into account in the refined theory mentioned. In the present study, energy principles are employed in deriving governing equations for general bending of anisotropic sandwich beams with variable thickness in both face sheets and cores. Solutions to these equations are based on a finite difference scheme. As an example in application, a simply supported thickness-tapered sandwich beam subject to a concentrated load at its center is considered. Let W' be the maximum deflection of the beam in which face sheets are considered as membrane, while W'' is that based on using the modified refined theory. It is found that W' is always larger than W'', however, the magnitude of (W'- W'') appears to be insensitive to the change of the taper of the beam.

Lu, Chu-Ho↗
NASA NTRS1993

Dynamic stall of an oscillating wing. Part 1: Evaluation of turbulence models

Unsteady flowfields of a two-dimensional oscillating wing are calculated using an implicit, finite-difference, Navier-Stokes numerical scheme using five widely used turbulence models. The objective of this study is to identify an appropriate turbulence model for accurate simulation of three-dimensional dynamic stall. Three unsteady flow conditions corresponding to attached flow, light-stall, and deep-stall of an oscillating wing experiment were chosen as test cases for computations. Results of unsteady airload hysteresis curves, harmonics of unsteady pressures, and instantaneous flow pictures are presented. Comparison of unsteady airloads with experiment show that all models are deficient in some sense and not a single model predicts all airloads consistently and in agreement with experiment for all flow conditions. For the attached flow condition, the Renormalization Group Theory (RNG), the Johnoson-King (J-K), and the Spalart-Allmaras (S-A) models have better performance. The Baldwin-Lomax (B-L) and the Baldwin-Barth (B-B) models fair poorly. At the light-stall condition, the results for the RNG, the J-K, and S-A models are in agreement with experiment for the upstroke but they all over predict the separation shown by the experiment and therefore have bigger hysteresis loops than experimental results. The B-B model results are also in good agreement for upstroke but have poor lift hysteresis for downstroke. It has superior drag and pitching-moment predictions. For deep-stall conditions, the airloads for the RNG, the B -B, and the S-A models have fair agreement with experiment, but the B-B model performed better at the extreme deep-stall condition. Overall, the RNG model provides significant improvement over the B-L model in all flow regimes with no additional computational cost. The Baldwin-Barth model is the most expensive of the models considered here, costing about 2.5 times that of the Baldwin-Lomax model. Finally, a brief discussion of the effects of grid density, time-step size, and numerical dissipation on the unsteady solutions are also presented.

Srinivasan, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

First-Principles Modeling Of Electromagnetic Scattering By Discrete and Discretely Heterogeneous Random Media

A discrete random medium is an object in the form of a finite volume of a vacuum or a homogeneous material medium filled with quasi-randomly and quasi-uniformly distributed discrete macroscopic impurities called small particles. Such objects are ubiquitous in natural and artificial environments. They are often characterized by analyzing theoretically the results of laboratory, in situ, or remote-sensing measurements of the scattering of light and other electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic scattering and absorption by particles can also affect the energy budget of a discrete random medium and hence various ambient physical and chemical processes. In either case electromagnetic scattering must be modeled in terms of appropriate optical observables, i.e., quadratic or bilinear forms in the field that quantify the reading of a relevant optical instrument or the electromagnetic energy budget. It is generally believed that time-harmonic Maxwell's equations can accurately describe elastic electromagnetic scattering by macroscopic particulate media that change in time much more slowly than the incident electromagnetic field. However, direct solutions of these equations for discrete random media had been impracticable until quite recently. This has led to a widespread use of various phenomenological approaches in situations when their very applicability can be questioned. Recently, however, a new branch of physical optics has emerged wherein electromagnetic scattering by discrete and discretely heterogeneous random media is modeled directly by using analytical or numerically exact computer solutions of the Maxwell equations. Therefore, the main objective of this Report is to formulate the general theoretical framework of electromagnetic scattering by discrete random media rooted in the Maxwell- Lorentz electromagnetics and discuss its immediate analytical and numerical consequences. Starting from the microscopic Maxwell-Lorentz equations, we trace the development of the first principles formalism enabling accurate calculations of monochromatic and quasi-monochromatic scattering by static and randomly varying multiparticle groups. We illustrate how this general framework can be coupled with state-of-the-art computer solvers of the Maxwell equations and applied to direct modeling of electromagnetic scattering by representative random multi-particle groups with arbitrary packing densities. This first-principles modeling yields general physical insights unavailable with phenomenological approaches. We discuss how the first-order-scattering approximation, the radiative transfer theory, and the theory of weak localization of electromagnetic waves can be derived as immediate corollaries of the Maxwell equations for very specific and well-defined kinds of particulate medium. These recent developments confirm the mesoscopic origin of the radiative transfer, weak localization, and effective-medium regimes and help evaluate the numerical accuracy of widely used approximate modeling methodologies.

Michael I Mishchenko↗
NASA NTRS2017

Tortuosity Computations of Porous Materials using the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo

Low-density carbon fiber preforms, used as thermal protection systems (TPS) materials for planetary entry systems, have permeable, highly porous microstructures consisting of interlaced fibers. Internal gas transport in TPS is important in modeling the penetration of hot boundary-layer gases and the in-depth transport of pyrolysis and ablation products. The gas effective diffusion coefficient of a porous material must be known before the gas transport can be modeled in material response solvers; however, there are very little available data for rigid fibrous insulators used in heritage TPS.The tortuosity factor, which reflects the efficiency of the percolation paths, can be computed from the effective diffusion coefficient of a gas inside a porous material and is based on the micro-structure of the material. It is well known, that the tortuosity factor is a strong function of the Knudsen number. Due to the small characteristic scales of porous media used in TPS applications (typical pore size of the order of 50 micron), the transport of gases can occur in the rarefied and transitional regimes, at Knudsen numbers above 1. A proper way to model the gas dynamics at these conditions consists in solving the Boltzmann equation using particle-based methods that account for movement and collisions of atoms and molecules.In this work we adopt, for the first time, the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method to compute the tortuosity factor of fibrous media in the rarefied regime. To enable realistic simulations of the actual transport of gases in the porous medium, digitized computational grids are obtained from X-ray micro-tomography imaging of real TPS materials. The SPARTA DSMC solver is used for simulations. Effective diffusion coefficients and tortuosity factors are obtained by computing the mean-square displacement of diffusing particles.We first apply the method to compute the tortuosity factors as a function of the Knudsen number for computationally designed materials such as random cylindrical fibers and packed bed of spheres with prescribed porosity. Results are compared to literature values obtained using random walk methods in the rarefied and transitional regime and a finite-volume method for the continuum regime. We then compute tortuosity factors for a real carbon fiber material with a transverse isotropic structure (FiberForm), quantifying differences between through-thickness and in-plain tortuosities at various Knudsen regimes.

Tortuosity↗