Results for “event data models” — Page 45

NASA NTRS2015

Characterization of Orbital Debris Via Hyper-Velocity Ground-Based Tests

To replicate a hyper-velocity fragmentation event using modern-day spacecraft materials and construction techniques to better improve the existing DoD and NASA breakup models. DebriSat is intended to be representative of modern LEO satellites.Major design decisions were reviewed and approved by Aerospace subject matter experts from different disciplines. DebriSat includes 7 major subsystems. Attitude determination and control system (ADCS), command and data handling (C&DH), electrical power system (EPS), payload, propulsion, telemetry tracking and command (TT&C), and thermal management. To reduce cost, most components are emulated based on existing design of flight hardware and fabricated with the same materials. A key laboratory-based test, Satellite Orbital debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), supporting the development of the DoD and NASA satellite breakup models was conducted at AEDC in 1992 .Breakup models based on SOCIT have supported many applications and matched on-orbit events reasonably well over the years.

Cowardin, Heather↗

NASA NTRS1995

Applying AI tools to operational space environmental analysis

The U.S. Air Force and National Oceanic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) space environmental operations centers are facing increasingly complex challenges meeting the needs of their growing user community. These centers provide current space environmental information and short term forecasts of geomagnetic activity. Recent advances in modeling and data access have provided sophisticated tools for making accurate and timely forecasts, but have introduced new problems associated with handling and analyzing large quantities of complex data. AI (Artificial Intelligence) techniques have been considered as potential solutions to some of these problems. Fielding AI systems has proven more difficult than expected, in part because of operational constraints. Using systems which have been demonstrated successfully in the operational environment will provide a basis for a useful data fusion and analysis capability. Our approach uses a general purpose AI system already in operational use within the military intelligence community, called the Temporal Analysis System (TAS). TAS is an operational suite of tools supporting data processing, data visualization, historical analysis, situation assessment and predictive analysis. TAS includes expert system tools to analyze incoming events for indications of particular situations and predicts future activity. The expert system operates on a knowledge base of temporal patterns encoded using a knowledge representation called Temporal Transition Models (TTM's) and an event database maintained by the other TAS tools. The system also includes a robust knowledge acquisition and maintenance tool for creating TTM's using a graphical specification language. The ability to manipulate TTM's in a graphical format gives non-computer specialists an intuitive way of accessing and editing the knowledge base. To support space environmental analyses, we used TAS's ability to define domain specific event analysis abstractions. The prototype system defines events covering reports of natural phenomena such as solar flares, bursts, geomagnetic storms, and five others pertinent to space environmental analysis. With our preliminary event definitions we experimented with TAS's support for temporal pattern analysis using X-ray flare and geomagnetic storm forecasts as case studies. We are currently working on a framework for integrating advanced graphics and space environmental models into this analytical environment.

Krajnak, Mike↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRS2009

Development of a GCR Event-based Risk Model

A goal at NASA is to develop event-based systems biology models of space radiation risks that will replace the current dose-based empirical models. Complex and varied biochemical signaling processes transmit the initial DNA and oxidative damage from space radiation into cellular and tissue responses. Mis-repaired damage or aberrant signals can lead to genomic instability, persistent oxidative stress or inflammation, which are causative of cancer and CNS risks. Protective signaling through adaptive responses or cell repopulation is also possible. We are developing a computational simulation approach to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) effects that is based on biological events rather than average quantities such as dose, fluence, or dose equivalent. The goal of the GCR Event-based Risk Model (GERMcode) is to provide a simulation tool to describe and integrate physical and biological events into stochastic models of space radiation risks. We used the quantum multiple scattering model of heavy ion fragmentation (QMSFRG) and well known energy loss processes to develop a stochastic Monte-Carlo based model of GCR transport in spacecraft shielding and tissue. We validated the accuracy of the model by comparing to physical data from the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). Our simulation approach allows us to time-tag each GCR proton or heavy ion interaction in tissue including correlated secondary ions often of high multiplicity. Conventional space radiation risk assessment employs average quantities, and assumes linearity and additivity of responses over the complete range of GCR charge and energies. To investigate possible deviations from these assumptions, we studied several biological response pathway models of varying induction and relaxation times including the ATM, TGF -Smad, and WNT signaling pathways. We then considered small volumes of interacting cells and the time-dependent biophysical events that the GCR would produce within these tissue volumes to estimate how GCR event rates mapped to biological signaling induction and relaxation times. We considered several hypotheses related to signaling and cancer risk, and then performed simulations for conditions where aberrant or adaptive signaling would occur on long-duration space mission. Our results do not support the conventional assumptions of dose, linearity and additivity. A discussion on how event-based systems biology models, which focus on biological signaling as the mechanism to propagate damage or adaptation, can be further developed for cancer and CNS space radiation risk projections is given.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Clues to Coral Reef Health: Integrating Radiative Transfer Modeling and Hyperspectral Data

An important contribution to coral reef research is to improve spectral distinction between various health states of coral species in areas subject to harmful anthropogenic activity and climate change. New insights into radiative transfer properties of corals under healthy and stressed conditions can advance understandings of ecological processes on reefs and allow better assessments of the impacts of large-scale bleaching and disease events, Our objective was to examine the spectral and spatial properties of hyperspectral sensors that may be used to remotely sense changes in reef community health. We compare in situ reef environment spectra (healthy coral, stressed coral, dead coral, algae, and sand) with airborne hyperspectral data to identify important spectral characteristics and indices. Additionally, spectral measurements over a range of water depths, relief, and bottom types are compared to help quantify bottom-water column influences. In situ spectra were collected in July and August 2002 at the Long Rock site in the Andros Island, Bahamas coastal zone coral reef. Our primary emphasis was on Acropora palmata (or elkhorn coral), a major reef building coral, which is prevalent in the study area, but is suffering from white band disease. A. palmata is currently being, proposed as an endangered species because its populations have severely declined in many areas of the Caribbean. In addition to the A. palmata biotope, we have collected spectra of at least seven other coral biotopes that exist within the study area, each with different coral community composition, density of corals, relief, and size of corals. Coral spectral reflectance was then input into a radiative transfer model, CORALMOD (CM1), which is based on a leaf radiative transfer model. In CM1, input coral reflectance measurements produce modeled reflectance through an inversion at each visible wavelength to provide the absorption spectrum. Initially, we imposed a scattering baseline that is the same regardless of the coral condition and that coral is optically thick and no light is transmitted through coral. Here we will focus on methodology, experimental design, and initial findings of the in situ spectral measurements and preliminary output from the radiative transfer model.

Guild, Liane↗

NASA NTRS1996

Geomagnetic transmission disturbances and heavy-ion fluences observed in low Earth orbit during the solar energetic particle events of October 1989

The large solar energetic particle (SEP) events and simultaneous large geomagnetic disturbances observed during October 1989 posed a significant, rapidly evolving space radiation hazard. Using data from the GOES-7, NOAA-10, IMP-8 and LDEF satellites, we determined the geomagnetic transmission, heavy ion fluences, mean Fe ionic charge state, and effective radiation hazard observed in low Earth orbit (LEO) for these SEPs. We modeled the geomagneitc transmission by tracing particles through the combination to the internal International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and the Tsyganenko (1989) magnetospheric field models, extending the modeling to large geomagnetic disturbances. We used our results to assess the radiation hazard such very large SEP events would pose in the anticipated 52 deg inclination space station orbit.

Boberg, P. R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Statistical Analysis of Instantaneous Frequency Scaling Factor as Derived From Optical Disdrometer Measurements At KQ Bands

The rain rate data and statistics of a location are often used in conjunction with models to predict rain attenuation. However, the true attenuation is a function not only of rain rate, but also of the drop size distribution (DSD). Generally, models utilize an average drop size distribution (Laws and Parsons or Marshall and Palmer [1]). However, individual rain events may deviate from these models significantly if their DSD is not well approximated by the average. Therefore, characterizing the relationship between the DSD and attenuation is valuable in improving modeled predictions of rain attenuation statistics. The DSD may also be used to derive the instantaneous frequency scaling factor and thus validate frequency scaling models. Since June of 2014, NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and the Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI) have jointly conducted a propagation study in Milan, Italy utilizing the 20 and 40 GHz beacon signals of the Alphasat TDP#5 Aldo Paraboni payload. The Ka- and Q-band beacon receivers provide a direct measurement of the signal attenuation while concurrent weather instrumentation provides measurements of the atmospheric conditions at the receiver. Among these instruments is a Thies Clima Laser Precipitation Monitor (optical disdrometer) which yields droplet size distributions (DSD); this DSD information can be used to derive a scaling factor that scales the measured 20 GHz data to expected 40 GHz attenuation. Given the capability to both predict and directly observe 40 GHz attenuation, this site is uniquely situated to assess and characterize such predictions. Previous work using this data has examined the relationship between the measured drop-size distribution and the measured attenuation of the link [2]. The focus of this paper now turns to a deeper analysis of the scaling factor, including the prediction error as a function of attenuation level, correlation between the scaling factor and the rain rate, and the temporal variability of the drop size distribution both within a given rain event and across different varieties of rain events. Index Terms-drop size distribution, frequency scaling, propagation losses, radiowave propagation.

Radio Attenuation↗

NASA NTRS1984

The relation of flux transfer events to magnetic reconnection

Preliminary results of a search for heat-transfer signatures in electron data on 31 flux-transfer events (FTEs) are reported. Strong acceleration or deceleration, large parallel pressure anisotropies, and temperatures and densities between those of the magnetosphere and the magnetosheath are commonly observed within the surface of the flux-transfer interval defined by the heat-flow peaks, with some evidence of field-aligned ionospheric electrons. A theoretical model is developed to explain some of the observations and illustrated with diagrams. Dynamical tests on a large well-resolved FTE show that the data are consistent with a one-sided passage of the probe into and out of a rotational shear layer.

Scudder, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

NASA NTRS2015

DebriSat: The New Hypervelocity Impact Test for Satellite Breakup Fragment Characterization

To replicate a hyper-velocity fragmentation event using modern-day spacecraft materials and construction techniques to better improve the existing DoD and NASA breakup models: DebriSat is intended to be representative of modern LEO satellites. Major design decisions were reviewed and approved by Aerospace subject matter experts from different disciplines. DebriSat includes 7 major subsystems. Attitude determination and control system (ADCS), command and data handling (C&DH), electrical power system (EPS), payload, propulsion, telemetry tracking and command (TT&C), and thermal management. To reduce cost, most components are emulated based on existing design of flight hardware and fabricated with the same materials. center dotA key laboratory-based test, Satellite Orbital debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), supporting the development of the DoD and NASA satellite breakup models was conducted at AEDC in 1992. Breakup models based on SOCIT have supported many applications and matched on-orbit events reasonably well over the years.

Cowardin, Heather↗

NASA NTRS2005

Pre-Launch GOES-R Risk Reduction Activities for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper

The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a new instrument planned for GOES-R that will greatly improve storm hazard nowcasting and increase warning lead time day and night. Daytime detection of lightning is a particularly significant technological advance given the fact that the solar illuminated cloud-top signal can exceed the intensity of the lightning signal by a factor of one hundred. Our approach is detailed across three broad themes which include: Data Processing Algorithm Readiness, Forecast Applications, and Radiance Data Mining. These themes address how the data will be processed and distributed, and the algorithms and models for developing, producing, and using the data products. These pre-launch risk reduction activities will accelerate the operational and research use of the GLM data once GOES-R begins on-orbit operations. The GLM will provide unprecedented capabilities for tracking thunderstorms and earlier warning of impending severe and hazardous weather threats. By providing direct information on lightning initiation, propagation, extent, and rate, the GLM will also capture the updraft dynamics and life cycle of convective storms, as well as internal ice precipitation processes. The GLM provides information directly from the heart of the thunderstorm as opposed to cloud-top only. Nowcasting applications enabled by the GLM data will expedite the warning and response time of emergency management systems, improve the dispatch of electric power utility repair crews, and improve airline routing around thunderstorms thereby improving safety and efficiency, saving fuel and reducing delays. The use of GLM data will assist the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Forest Service in quickly detecting lightning ground strikes that have a high probability of causing fires. Finally, GLM data will help assess the role of thunderstorms and deep convection in global climate, and will improve regional air quality and global chemistry/climate modeling. The GLM has a robust design that benefits and improves upon its strong heritage of NASA-developed LEO predecessors, the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). GLM will have a substantially larger number of pixels within the focal plane, two lens systems, and multiple Real-Time Event Processors REPS for on-board event detection and data compression to provide continuous observations of the Americas and adjacent oceans.

Goodman, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Tool for Automated Retrieval of Generic Event Tracks (TARGET)

Methods have been developed to identify and track tornado-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) automatically over the continental United States, in order to facilitate systematic studies of these powerful and often destructive events. Several data sources were combined to ensure event identification accuracy. Records of watches and warnings issued by National Weather Service (NWS), and tornado locations and tracks from the Tornado History Project (THP) were used to locate MCSs in high-resolution precipitation observations and GOES infrared (11-micron) Rapid Scan Operation (RSO) imagery. Thresholds are then applied to the latter two data sets to define MCS events and track their developments. MCSs produce a broad range of severe convective weather events that are significantly affecting the living conditions of the populations exposed to them. Understanding how MCSs grow and develop could help scientists improve their weather prediction models, and also provide tools to decision-makers whose goals are to protect populations and their property. Associating storm cells across frames of remotely sensed images poses a difficult problem because storms evolve, split, and merge. Any storm-tracking method should include the following processes: storm identification, storm tracking, and quantification of storm intensity and activity. The spatiotemporal coordinates of the tracks will enable researchers to obtain other coincident observations to conduct more thorough studies of these events. In addition to their tracked locations, their areal extents, precipitation intensities, and accumulations all as functions of their evolutions in time were also obtained and recorded for these events. All parameters so derived can be catalogued into a moving object database (MODB) for custom queries. The purpose of this software is to provide a generalized, cross-platform, pluggable tool for identifying events within a set of scientific data based upon specified criteria with the possibility of storing identified events into a searchable database. The core of the application uses an implementation of the connected component labeling (CCL) algorithm to identify areas of interest, then uses a set of criteria to establish spatial and temporal relationships between identified components. The CCL algorithm is used for identifying objects within images for computer vision. This application applies it to scientific data sets using arbitrary criteria. The most novel concept was applying a generalized CCL implementation to scientific data sets for establishing events both spatially and temporally. The combination of several existing concepts (pluggable components, generalized CCL algorithm, etc.) into one application is also novel. In addition, how the system is designed, i.e., its extensibility with pluggable components, and its configurability with a simple configuration file, is innovative. This allows the system to be applied to new scenarios with ease.

Clune, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2010

Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Weather Forecasting

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimension variational (3DVAR) analysis component (WRF-Var). Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in both clear and partly cloudy regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts due to instability added in the forecast soundings by the AIRS profiles. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗

NASA NTRS1984

Ionic charge state measurements during He(+)-rich solar particle events

Ionic charge state measurements of carbon, oxygen, and iron in He(+)-rich energetic particle events are presented. The data have been obtained with the Max-Planck-Institut/University of Maryland sensor system on the ISEE 3 spacecraft. The ionic charge states cannot be explained in terms of a model in which the coronal temperature determines a charge equilibrium which is subsequently frozen-in nor in terms of charge exchange during transition through coronal matter after acceleration. It is concluded that the acceleration and probably also the injection process is biased against particles with high mass-to-charge ratios. The plasma injected into the acceleration process must consist of material of cold (not greater than 8.5 x 10 to the 4th K) as well as hot (2.5 x 10 to the 6th K) origin. The cold material must be more abundant than the hot material.

Hovestadt, D.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Land Use Effects on Atmospheric C-13 Imply a Sizable Terrestrial CO2 Sink in Tropical Latitudes

Records of atmospheric CO2 and 13-CO2, can be used to distinguish terrestrial vs. oceanic exchanges of CO2 with the atmosphere. However, this approach has proven difficult in the tropics, partly due to extensive land conversion from C-3 to C-4 vegetation. We estimated the effects of such conversion on biosphere-atmosphere C-13 exchange for 1991 through 1999, and then explored how this 'land-use disequilibrium' altered the partitioning of net atmospheric CO2 exchanges between ocean and land using NOAA-CMDL data and a 2D, zonally averaged atmospheric transport model. Our results show sizable CO2 uptake in C-3-dominated tropical regions in seven of the nine years; 1997 and 1998, which included a strong ENSO event, are near neutral. Since these fluxes include any deforestation source, our findings imply either that such sources are smaller than previously estimated, and/or the existence of a large terrestrial CO2 sink in equatorial latitudes.

Townsend, Alan R.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Evidence for Interhemispheric Coupling during the Unusual Northern Polar Summer Mesosphere of 2002

Data from the MaCWAVE MIDAS Rocket Program launched during July, 2002, from Andoya Rocket Range (ARR) in Norway have demonstrated that the temperature structure of the summer polar mesosphere during this period was atypical, at least above ARR. The summer polar mesopause region was warmer than normal and of shorter duration than for other years analyzed. Theoretical studies have since been published that imply that the abnormal characteristics of this polar summer were generated by unusual dynamical processes occurring in the southern polar winter hemisphere. We have used data from the SABER instrument aboard the NASA TIMED Satellite to study these characteristics on a global scale and compare them with the features observed in the ensuing seven years. For background, The TIMED Satellite was launched on December 7, 2001 to study the dynamics and energy of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The SABER instrument on TIMED is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure a large number of minor constituents as well as temperature of the MLT. In this study, we have investigated the temperature characteristics of the polar mesosphere as a function of spatial and temporal considerations. We have used the most recent SABER dataset (1.07) that includes the improved temperature retrievals in Earth polar regions, Weekly averages were used 10 make the comparisons between the winter and summer hemispheres. The unusually short polar summer in the northern hemisphere during 2002 is clearly defined by this analysis and is shown to be unique for the 7 years analyzed. Furthermore, the data analysis agrees with recent theoretical studies showing that this behavior is a result of anomalous heating events in the southern polar stratosphere. The time sequence of the coupling process, as predicted by recent theoretical models, is well defined in a sequence of weekly temperature contour maps measured by SABER.

Goldberg, Richard A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The 2010 May Flaring Episode of Cygnus X-3 in Radio, X-Rays, and gamma-Rays

In 2009, Cygnus X-3 (Cyg X-3) became the first microquasar to be detected in the GeV gamma-ray regime, via the satellites Fermi and AGILE. The addition of this new band to the observational toolbox holds promise for building a more detailed understanding of the relativistic jets of this and other systems. We present a rich dataset of radio, hard and soft X-ray, and gamma-ray observations of Cyg X-3 made during a flaring episode in 2010 May. We detect a approx.3-d softening and recovery of the X-ray emission, followed almost immediately by a approx.1-Jy radio flare at 15 GHz, followed by a 4.3sigma gamma-ray flare (E > 100 MeV) approx.1.5 d later. The radio sampling is sparse, but we use archival data to argue that it is unlikely the gamma-ray flare was followed by any significant unobserved radio flares. In this case, the sequencing of the observed events is difficult to explain in a model in which the gamma-ray emission is due to inverse Compton scattering of the companion star's radiation field. Our observations suggest that other mechanisms may also be responsible for gamma-ray emission from Cyg X-3.

Williams, Peter K. G.↗