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At least 811 records · Page 45

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Parameter Estimation of Deflagration Losses in a Rotating Detonation Engine

One of the practical challenges of the studies of rotating detonation engines (RDEs) is the direct estimation of losses from experimental measurements. This study attempts at resolving this limitation by combining a reduced order model (ROM) of the detonation wave characteristics with a Markov chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation framework. The model considers simple deflagration losses and the overall impact of deflagration on RDE performance. To evaluate this model, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique was applied to estimate the loss parameters within the model for a set of conditions operated in hydrogen-air over a range of mass flow rates and equivalence ratios. The MCMC parameter estimation framework allowed for the determination of a posterior distribution of the loss parameters for each test condition, an examination of the correlation between the loss parameters and measured performance metrics of the RDE, and an uncertainty propagation of these parameters. The predicted model loss parameters were then compared to indirect experimental measurements of the deflagration combustion fractions to evaluating the validity of the approach, and shed light on the benefits and drawbacks of the model, measurement techniques, and the estimation framework.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Development of Automated Atom Probe Tomography capability to study the influence of applied voltage and laser power on the final apparent composition of the analyzed specimen

This study presents the development and implementation of an autonomous Bayesian optimization (BO) framework for controlling and optimizing experimental parameters in Atom Probe Tomography (APT). Using commercial silicon needle samples as a benchmark system, we demonstrate that BO can efficiently navigate the complex parameter space of voltage and laser power to achieve target charge state ratios (specifically Si + /(Si + +Si 2+ )) with minimal experimental evaluations. Our implementation integrates Gaussian Process modeling with the CAMECA atom probe control framework, enabling autonomous adjustment of experimental conditions in real-time. Results show that the algorithm successfully converges to target ratios under different scenarios: maintaining a reference ratio, increasing the ratio (favoring Si 1+ ), and decreasing the ratio (favoring Si 2+ ). The system adapts to specimen evolution during analysis, compensating for changes in apex geometry while maintaining optimization targets. This work establishes a proof of concept for AI-driven optimization in APT, addressing the traditional challenges of manual parameter tuning and paving the way for applications to more complex materials where compositional accuracy is critical.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Using remote sensing to quantify the additional climate benefits of California forest carbon offset projects

Abstract Nature‐based climate solutions are a vital component of many climate mitigation strategies, including California's, which aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. Most carbon offsets in California's cap‐and‐trade program come from improved forest management (IFM) projects. Since 2012, various landowners have set up IFM projects following the California Air Resources Board's IFM protocol. As many of these projects approach their 10th year, we now have the opportunity to assess their effectiveness, identify best practices, and suggest improvements toward future protocol revisions. In this study, we used remote sensing‐based datasets to evaluate the carbon trends and harvest histories of 37 IFM projects in California. Despite some current limitations and biases, these datasets can be used to quantify carbon accumulation and harvest rates in offset project lands relative to nearby similar “control” lands before and after the projects began. Five lines of evidence suggest that the carbon accumulated in offset projects to date has generally not been additional to what might have otherwise occurred: (1) most forests in northwestern California have been accumulating carbon since at least the mid‐1980s and continue to accumulate carbon, whether enrolled in offset projects or not; (2) harvest rates were high in large timber company project lands before IFM initiation, suggesting they are earning carbon credits for forests in recovery; (3) projects are often located on lands with higher densities of low‐timber‐value species; (4) carbon accumulation rates have not yet increased on lands that enroll as offset projects, relative to their pre‐enrollment levels; and (5) harvest rates have not decreased on most project lands since offset project initiation. These patterns suggest that the current protocol should be improved to robustly measure and reward additionality. In general, our framework of geospatial analyses offers an important and independent means to evaluate the effectiveness of the carbon offsets program, especially as these data products continue improving and as offsets receive attention as a climate mitigation strategy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Idaho National Laboratory Site Natural Resources: Wildland Fire Recovery Framework

As pressures from invasive species, climate change, and anthropogenic impacts increase across the landscape in the western U.S., managing wildland fire recovery to promote healthy sagebrush steppe becomes an increasingly important stewardship responsibility. The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed and implemented wildland fire recovery plans to hasten desirable vegetation re-establishment on several individual fires, but lacks an overarching wildland fire recovery strategy, or framework. The intent of this document is to develop the technical approach and scientific basis for wildland fire recovery at the INL Site and to evaluate the tools available to support it in a comprehensive and broadly applicable format. This wildland fire recovery framework will outline the process of assessing the potential impacts of wildland fire on natural resources, present a range of post-fire recovery options, outline an approach for post-fire monitoring, and provide a template for post-fire recovery plans designed to addresses the specific conditions of each wildland fire. There are numerous benefits to developing a wildland fire recovery framework for the INL Site. The first is streamlining the development of post-fire recovery plans for individual fires. A second benefit is more closely aligning INL’s post-fire planning processes with those of other federal agencies. The development of an INL Site fire recovery framework will also allow resource professionals to consider a broader set of recovery tools than they have before because all proposed tools included in the framework were vetted through the process of scoping and stakeholder review. Finally, this framework is a publicly available document that can be used as a basis for communicating and discussing post-fire natural resource recovery objectives with agency collaborators, conservation partners, and other stakeholders. Through the proactive land stewardship principles outlined in this framework, current INL sustainability initiatives can be enhanced, and future INL mission flexibility will be maintained.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing plant select agent designation and decision making

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents (Select Agents List) that threaten crops of economic importance to the United States and regulates the procedures governing containment, incident response, and the security of entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews their select agent list, utilizing assessments by subject matter experts (SMEs) to rank the agents. We explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a decision support framework (DSF) to support the USDA DASAT biennial review process. The evaluation includes both current and non-select agents to provide a robust assessment. We initially conducted a literature review of 16 pathogens against 9 criteria for assessing plant health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this analysis. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for ensuring accuracy. Scoring criteria were adopted to ensure consistency. The MCDA supported the expectation that select agents would rank high on the relative risk scale when considering the agricultural consequences of a bioterrorism attack; however, application of analytical thresholds as a basis for designating select agents led to some exceptions to current designations. A second analytical approach used agent-specific data to designate key criteria in a DSF logic tree format to identify pathogens of low concern that can be ruled out for further consideration as select agents. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

SECARB-USA: A Sub-Basin Framework for Future CO 2 Infrastructure Development

Task 4 of the SECARB-USA Project is designed to evaluate the regional needs and challenges for the development of a safe and environmentally sound CO 2 transport infrastructure. This infrastructure would transport CO 2 capture from power generating plants and/or industrial sources and distribute it to oil fields for associated storage in EOR operations, saline storage, and/or other suitable storage sites. The objective of this report on Sub-Basin Prospective Areas (Deliverable 4.1.a), is to provide the framework for understanding how regional infrastructure development could occur. The sub-basin prospective areas, in conjunction with the locations of CO 2 sources and pipeline infrastructure (for source-sink matching networks), form the basis for the analysis that will be performed in the Techno-Economic Analysis of Infrastructure Buildout Scenarios (Deliverable 4.1.b).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep Learning–Assisted Multiobjective Optimization of Geological CO 2 Storage Performance under Geomechanical Risks

In geological CO 2 storage, designing the optimal well control strategy for CO 2 injection to maximize CO 2 storage while minimizing the associated geomechanical risks is not trivial. This challenge arises due to pressure buildup, CO 2 plume migration, the highly nonlinear nature of geomechanical responses to rock-fluid interaction, and the high computational cost associated with coupled flow and geomechanics simulations. In this paper, we introduce a novel optimization framework to address these challenges. The optimization problem is formulated as follows: maximize total CO 2 storage while minimizing geomechanical risks by adjusting the injection schedules within bounded constraints. The geomechanical risks are primarily driven by injection-induced pressure build-up, which is characterized by ground displacement and the induced microseismicity. We used the Fourier neural operator (FNO)-based deep learning model to construct surrogate models, replacing the time-consuming coupled flow and geomechanics simulations for evaluating the aforementioned objective functions. The developed surrogate models have been incorporated into a multiobjective optimization framework through a genetic algorithm to reduce the computational burden. The proposed optimization framework reduces the computational cost from approximately 2,400 hours, when using objective function evaluations based on physics-based simulations, to around 20 minutes. A set of Pareto-optimal solutions of the proposed workflow yields nontrivial optimal decisions, reducing the microseismicity potential and the vertical displacement. This Pareto front highlights the optimal trade-offs between CO 2 storage amount, safety, and ground displacement, emphasizing the need for careful optimization and management of injection strategies to achieve a balanced outcome. The novelty of this work is twofold. First, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating the minimization of the geomechanical risks as objective functions into the CO 2 storage optimization workflow to mitigate the potential risk of induced microseismicity and ground displacement. Second, we leverage the FNO-based surrogate models to optimize a real-field CO 2 storage operation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Energy-conserving contact dynamics of nonspherical rigid-body particles

Understanding the contact dynamics of nonspherical particles is crucial for accurately modeling colloidal and granular systems where shape anisotropy dictates structural organization and transport properties. We here introduce an energy-conserving contact dynamics framework for arbitrary convex rigid-body particles by implementing vertex–boundary interactions in 2D and vertex–surface and edge–edge detection in 3D. The established formulation enables continuous force evaluation and prevents particle overlap while conserving total energy during translational and rotational motion. We demonstrate the framework’s stability and its utility to capture packing behavior, anisotropic diffusion, and equations of state of polygonal and polyhedral particles as examples. The framework establishes a robust and extensible foundation for investigating nonequilibrium dynamics of complex nonspherical particulate systems, enabling enhanced understanding of phenomena across spatiotemporal scales in self- and directed-assembly, granular flows, and hydrodynamics, potentially coupled with interactions that represent underlying physical mechanisms.

Discrete element method↗

Uniting Theory and Experiment to Deliver Flexible MOFS for Superior Methane (NG) Storage

The objective of the project was to use previous insights developed through synthesis and quantitative modeling of rigid metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) in an established synergistic theoretical/experimental team to create, modify, and evaluate flexible MOFs (FlexMOFs) for natural gas (NG) storage and release at practically useful pressures and transform the NG storage economy. The goal was reduced pressure absorbed natural gas (ANG) FlexMOF storage at operating pressures less than 100 bar with physisorption exploiting the favorable thermodynamics and kinetics of flexible porous material opening in response to adsorption. Hydrogen behavior in this context was also considered. The specific aim of the project was to design and develop a standard computational modeling methodology for, first, detailed atomistic retrodiction of FlexMOF gating behavior and ultimately prediction of the effects of functionalization and/or substitution on structural transitioning. The project was also geared towards the establishment of the interaction of methane with the framework and binding sites using modeling and the FlexMOF will be both internally and external validated as a SMART metric. This has value to the scientific community both from the obvious standpoint of providing a better understanding of the promising test case systems (CdIF-13 and the MIL-53(Al) series of MOFs), but also in providing an avenue of obtaining insight into these FlexMOF systems in general, which is of particular interest given the tendency of structure-function correlation to lag behind synthesis methodology (making the latter a hit or miss proposition for applications). This gap remains significant for FlexMOF systems whose gate opening behaviors complicate computational examination. The computational methodologies are relatively inexpensive in terms of both money and computational resources enhancing the general viability of these methodologies. The ultimate gain to the public will be in the application of these techniques to design systems for natural gas storage and use to cut down on green-house emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Adaptive Hierarchical Cyber Attack Detection and Localization in Active Distribution Systems

Development of a cyber security strategy for the active distribution systems is challenging due to the inclusion of distributed renewable energy generations. Here this paper proposes an adaptive hierarchical cyber attack detection and localization framework for distributed active distribution systems via analyzing electrical waveforms. Cyber attack detection is based on a sequential deep learning model, via which even minor cyber attacks can be identified. The two-stage cyber attack localization algorithm first estimates the cyber attack sub-region, and then localize the specified cyber attack within the estimated subregion. We propose a modified spectral clustering-based network partitioning method for the hierarchical cyber attack ‘coarse’ localization. Next, to further narrow down the cyber attack location, a normalized impact score based on waveform statistical metrics is proposed to obtain a ‘fine’ cyber attack location by characterizing different waveform properties. Finally, compared with classical and state-of-art methods, a comprehensive quantitative evaluation with two case studies shows promising estimation results of the proposed framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data Files for Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce.This data set includes all files that were produced and applied in the paper Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions [Xiang et al. in review]. The paper is in review as of July 1 2025 in Geoscientific Model Development (GMD). In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-rich integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM’s parameterized representation of total runoff. This dataset contains 2 figure image files (*.png, *jpg) that describe the study site and methods, as well as folders (Figure*.zip) that contain the associated data files (*.csv, *.dat) and python code notebooks (*.ipynb) for figures 3-7 in the paper. Jupyter notebook (*.ipynb) files that produce the figure files using the associated data files will run within a python environment configured with Jupyter Lab or Notebook packages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce. In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-based integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM's parameterized representation of total runoff. Results show that (1) ELM's total runoff was the same order of magnitude as the ATS simulations, and both models were similarly variable over time; (2) minor adjustments to coefficients in ELM's runoff parameterization improved the match between the ATS simulation and ELM's parameterized representation of annual and seasonal total runoff; (3) overall, runoff responses in ATS and ELM are more similar in flat hillslope environments compared to steep hillslopes; and (4) shallower active layer thicknesses and higher precipitation simulations resulted in lower correlations between the two models due to greater total runoff. By incorporating the optimized runoff coefficients from the Sagavanirktok River basin into ELM, the simulated total runoff better matched the streamflow observations at a small watershed located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Our findings revealed important insights into the effectiveness of runoff parameterizations in land surface models and pathways for improving runoff coefficients in typical Arctic regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Comparative Metagenomic Analysis of Specified Microorganisms in Groundwater for Non-Sterilized Pharmaceutical Products

In pharmaceutical manufacturing, ensuring product safety involves the detection and identification of microorganisms with human pathogenic potential, including Burkholderia cepacia complex (BCC), Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Salmonella enterica, Staphylococcus aureus, Clostridium sporogenes, Candida albicans, and Mycoplasma spp., some of which may be missed or not identified by traditional culture-dependent methods. In this study, we employed a metagenomic approach to detect these taxa, avoiding the limitations of conventional cultivation methods. We assessed the groundwater microbiome’s taxonomic and functional features from samples collected at two locations in the spring and summer. All datasets comprised 436–557 genera with Proteobacteria, Bacteroidota, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria, and Cyanobacteria accounting for > 95% of microbial DNA sequences. The aforementioned species constituted less than 18.3% of relative abundance. Escherichia and Salmonella were mainly detected in Hot Springs, relative to Jefferson, while Clostridium and Pseudomonas were mainly found in Jefferson relative to Hot Springs. Multidrug resistance efflux pumps and BlaR1 family regulatory sensor-transducer disambiguation dominated in Hot Springs and in Jefferson. These initial results provide insight into the detection of specified microorganisms and could constitute a framework for the establishment of comprehensive metagenomic analysis for the microbiological evaluation of pharmaceutical-grade water and other non-sterile pharmaceutical products, ensuring public safety.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multivariate environmental and trait-based controls of transpiration in the Central Amazon Rainforest

Tropical forest tree mortality is increasing due to more severe droughts, yet our understanding of how tree traits and life strategies are linked to drought stress has been limited by measurement scarcity. The BIONTE (BIOmass and NuTrient Experiment) near Manaus, Brazil hosts one of the world’s largest sap flow installations, with sensors in 90 canopy trees across a wood density gradient monitored since June 2022. The 2023 El Niño drought provided a unique opportunity to evaluate how water availability impacts tree transpiration. An interpretable machine learning framework was used to study the complex interactions between transpiration and multiple environmental variables such as soil water availability and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and how these interactions vary with wood density and individual trees. We found varying responses of transpiration from different trees during the El Niño drought. Transpiration generally increased with temperature, with stronger effects in wetter areas and in trees with low to medium wood density. However, this response was modulated by stomatal sensitivity to VPD, which constrained transpiration under high atmospheric demand, particularly in intermediate-moisture area. The inflection in transpiration rate at high temperatures (>32°C) underscores the role of stomatal and hydraulic regulation in limiting water loss and protecting trees from excessive evaporative demand. Analysis of soil water contribution to transpiration revealed unimodal patterns in wetter area, with peak contributions near 0.45 cm 3 cm -3 of surface soil water and declining or flat responses beyond that threshold, suggesting a shift from water- to energy-limited transpiration. In contrast, drier areas exhibited limited transpiration sensitivity to soil water conditions and minimal trait-based variation in VPD responses, indicating supply-limited conditions. Despite higher wood density trees being generally more resilient, this study shows diverse tree drought resilience, prompting further investigation into the specific traits and dynamics between environmental variables in regulating transpiration and other physiological processes in trees.

Drought↗

Nonperturbative heavy-flavor transport approach for hot QCD matter

The heavy charm and bottom quarks are unique probes of the transport properties of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) and its hadronization in high-energy nuclear collisions. A key challenge in this context is to embed the interactions of the heavy quarks in the expanding medium compatible with the strong-coupling nature of the QGP, and thus to unravel the underlying microscopic mechanisms. In the present work we progress toward this goal by combining recent T -matrix interactions for elastic scattering with an effective transport implementation of gluon radiation, and apply these in a Langevin framework in a viscous hydrodynamic evolution. Hadronization of heavy quarks is evaluated using a modern recombination model with 4-momentum conservation, supplemented with fragmentation constrained by data in proton-proton collisions. Deploying this approach to charm-hadron observables in Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC yields fair agreement with experiment while also identifying areas of further systematic improvement of the simulations and its current input.

Heavy-flavor transport↗

More land is needed for solar and wind infrastructure under a high renewables scenario in the Western US by 2050

Expanding United States electricity infrastructure to meet growing demand could require extensive power plant development footprints and land use conversion, depending on the mix of generation types chosen. Understanding where future power plant sitings are likely to take place and identifying potential conflicts and land-use tradeoffs will be key to identifying feasible and affordable investments and evaluating regional planning coordination needs. Here we use an integrated modeling framework that combines capacity expansion planning, hourly grid operations, and geospatial techno-economic analysis to develop projections (2025-2050) of power plant sitings in the Western United States (US) at a 1 km 2 resolution for a business-as-usual scenario and a high renewables penetration scenario. We find that 30% more land will be needed in the high renewables scenario as compared to business-as-usual, and that 75% of that development is projected to be located within 10 km of natural areas.

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

A gated graph transformer for protein complex structure quality assessment and its performance in CASP15

Abstract Motivation Proteins interact to form complexes to carry out essential biological functions. Computational methods such as AlphaFold-multimer have been developed to predict the quaternary structures of protein complexes. An important yet largely unsolved challenge in protein complex structure prediction is to accurately estimate the quality of predicted protein complex structures without any knowledge of the corresponding native structures. Such estimations can then be used to select high-quality predicted complex structures to facilitate biomedical research such as protein function analysis and drug discovery. Results In this work, we introduce a new gated neighborhood-modulating graph transformer to predict the quality of 3D protein complex structures. It incorporates node and edge gates within a graph transformer framework to control information flow during graph message passing. We trained, evaluated and tested the method (called DProQA) on newly-curated protein complex datasets before the 15th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP15) and then blindly tested it in the 2022 CASP15 experiment. The method was ranked 3rd among the single-model quality assessment methods in CASP15 in terms of the ranking loss of TM-score on 36 complex targets. The rigorous internal and external experiments demonstrate that DProQA is effective in ranking protein complex structures. Availability and implementation The source code, data, and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/DProQA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗