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NASA NTRS2017

Origin of Pre-Coronal-Jet Minifilaments: Flux Cancellation

Coronal jets are frequent magnetically channeled narrow eruptions. All coronal jets observed in EUV and X-ray images show a bright spire with a base brightening, also known as jet bright point (JBP). Recent studies of jets show that coronal jets are driven by small-scale filament eruptions (e.g. Hong et al. 2011, Shen et al. 2012, Adams et al. 2014, Sterling et al. 2015). We recently investigated the triggering mechanism of ten on-disk quiet-region coronal jet eruptions and found that magnetic flux cancellation at the neutral line of minifilaments is the main cause of quiet-region jet eruptions (Panesar et al.2016).

Panesar, Navdeep K.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Mt. Pinatubo's Impacts on the GEOS Forecasting System

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 had dramatic effects on the global climate, introducing a sudden and extreme forcing on the radiative budget. In this presentation we analyze the effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the seasonal forecast performed with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), an Earth System Model that includes a bulk aerosol model coupled to radiation and an interactive ocean.We performed three ten-member ensembles of 12-month simulations (June 1991-May 1992). These simulations were performed with a 0.5 longitude by 0.5 latitude horizontal resolution. Out of the three ensembles, one excludes the eruption, representing the control experiment. The other two ensembles include the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, varying in the effective radius of the volcanic sulfate: one assumed the effective radius to be equal to 0.35 micron (as for tropospheric aerosol) and the other has the effective radius set to 0.6 micron (closer to natural observation). Through the analysis of the aerosol forcing results derived from the two assumptions, we can show how this forcing acts on the seasonal forecast system. In particular, we will focus on the impacts to the surface and ocean temperatures and precipitation.

Mukherjee, Nikita↗

NASA NTRS2019

Using GES DISC Data to Study Kilauea Volcano of 2018

Kilauea volcano in Hawaii which erupted in early May 2018 injected massive amount of SO2 and ash into the atmosphere. The lava flow during the eruption destroyed many home and neighborhoods. The SO2 plume during the eruption of Kilauea volcano is analyzed from May to August 2018 using multiple satellite products such as Level 2 TROPspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and Level 3 Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). GES DISC hosts multi-disciplinary Earth science data sets that can be used to analyze natural disasters, such as the Kilauea volcano. Additionally, GES DISC's Giovanni tool can be used to visualize these data. We acquired OMI through the subsetting function, which is processed by the GES DISC in-house developed backend software Level3/4 Regrider and Subsetter (L34RS) and TROPOMI using OPeNDAP.Data from the OMI OMSO2e product showed elevated levels of SO2 amounts during the eruption between May to August 2018. Similarly, ground-based stations at Hawaii Volcanoes National Park recorded higher SO2 concentrations during the same time period. This study uses wind direction from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) to analyze the transport and dispersion of SO2 plume and map lava flows from the volcano using thermal images from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). Furthermore, satellite observations combined with socioeconomic and public health data are used to analyze its impact in public health.

KC, Binita↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Calculating the Height of Volcanic Cloud SO2 With a Lagrangian Trajectory Tool: Raikoke (2019) and Pinatubo (1991) Cases

We have developed a new data analysis tool to reconstruct the altitude of SO2 clouds ejected by avolcanic eruption. Starting with 2D fields of satellite observed SO2 column density, known volcanolocation, and reanalysis wind fields, the Goddard Lagrangian trajectory tool allows us to estimatethe altitude and local concentration of SO2 at the time of observation. We demonstrate this tool forthe June 21, 2019 Mt. Raikoke eruption (8h, 30h and 78 hours after eruption). We use SO2 data fromthe Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite/Nadir Mapper (OMPS/NM) onboard the NASA-NOAASuomi National Polar Partnership satellite and the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument(TROPOMI) onboard the European Copernicus Sentinel 5 precursor satellite and wind fields fromthe NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. We obtained a wide distribution ofSO2 altitudes between 1 and 19 kilometers in different parts of the Raikoke SO2 clouds, with thehighest SO2 concentration between 11 and 16 km, in good agreement with data from independentSO2 layer height retrievals from TROPOMI and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer(IASI). We then applied this method to the June 15, 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption using SO2 columnmeasurements from the NASA Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on June 16, 17, 18 andusing wind fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis version 2. Weobtained a wide distribution of SO2 heights from 6 km up to 30 km in the northern part of the cloud.We use our new trajectory tool to reconstruct volcanic SO2/aerosol emission sources as functions oftime and altitude, providing inputs to the GEOS model aerosol and chemistry schemes in order tosimulate the dispersion of volcanic SO2 and aerosol clouds from these events.

SO2↗

NASA NTRS2019

First ALMA Millimeter-wavelength Maps of Jupiter, with a Multiwavelength Study of Convection

We obtained the first maps of Jupiter at 1–3 mm wavelength with the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array (ALMA) on 2017 January 3–5, just days after an energetic eruption at 16fdg5S jovigraphic latitude had been reported by the amateur community, and about two to three months after the detection of similarly energetic eruptions in the northern hemisphere, at 22.2°–23.0°N. Our observations, probing below the ammonia cloud deck, show that the erupting plumes in the South Equatorial Belt bring up ammonia gas from the deep atmosphere. While models of plume eruptions that are triggered at the water condensation level explain data taken at uv–visible and mid-infrared wavelengths, our ALMA observations provide a crucial, hitherto missing, link in the moist convection theory by showing that ammonia gas from the deep atmosphere is indeed brought up in these plumes. Contemporaneous Hubble Space Telescope data show that the plumes reach altitudes as high as the tropopause. We suggest that the plumes at 22.2°–23.0°N also rise up well above the ammonia cloud deck and that descending air may dry the neighboring belts even more than in quiescent times, which would explain our observations in the north.

Imke de Pater↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Hinode-IRIS HOP for Searching for Possible Solar Jet Sources for Switchbacks Observed in the Near-Sun Solar Wind by the Parker Solar Probe (PSP)

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) detects “switchback” magnetic structures in the near-Sun solar wind. A candidate for the source of these is solar coronal jets. Recent studies show that coronal jets are frequently made by eruptions of small-filament-carrying flux ropes, or mini filament flux-rope eruptions, that can inject a magnetic twist wave onto high-reaching ambient magnetic field(Sterling et al. 2015; Moore et al 2015).That is, many coronal jets evidently result from the eruption of a small-scale flux rope of twisted field that holds a mini filament of chromospheric-temperature plasma. The erupting flux rope reconnects with ambient far-reaching field, ejecting both reconnection-heated plasma and cool filament plasma (forming the multi-temperature jet spire), and transferring its twist onto the far-reaching field via a mechanism proposed by Shibata & Uchida(1986).If the far-reaching field opens into the heliosphere, it is plausible that the twist propagates out into the solar wind, possibly appearing as a switchback in the magnetic field in the solar wind (Sterling & Moore 2020).As part of the "Connecting Heliophysics Observatories and Models with PSP" (CHOMP)investigation led by Pete Riley and funded by NASA’s Heliophysics System Observatory Connect (HSOC) Program, we are currently We are currently running a joint Hinode-IRIS HOP, HOP 410, for coordinated observations of the Sun during times of PSP perihelia. An output from this study is a series of soft X-ray movies from Hinode/XRT. If PSP sees a strong switchback during any of its front-side or partly-front-side perihelia, we will examine the corresponding XRT movies to see whether exceptional jet activity occurred at the expected time and location of the potential source of the switchback on the Sun. This work is supported by the NASA HSOC and HGI programs, and by the MSFC Hinode project.

Alphonse C Sterling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Auroral ovals versus flare ribbons: Optical footprints of explosive magnetic field reconfiguration in Earth’s magnetosphere and the Sun’s corona

Despite drastically different plasma conditions in the two systems, eruptive energy release events in solar active regions and in Earth’s magnetosphere have a lot in common. Both solar active region eruptions and the substorm activity in the nightside magnetosphere are known to be associated with an abrupt large-scale reorganization of the supporting magnetic systems enabling the conversion and dissipation of the stored free magnetic energy. The rate of energy accumulation in either system tends to be by orders of magnitude slower than the energy release rate, leading to the formation of an impulsive loading-unloading cycle involving a relatively long pre-reconnection phase (substorm growth phase, pre-flare stressing of an active region magnetic field), a short and explosive reconnection phase (substorm breakup and expansion, eruptive flares and CMEs), and a prolonged post-reconnection phase (substorm recovery phase and the post-flare active region reconfiguration). In Earth’s magnetosphere, this loading-unloading cycle is diagnosed by monitoring characteristic changes in the particle precipitation pattern in the northern and southern auroral ovals marking the boundary between the open and close magnetic flux. The position, shape, structure, and dynamics of the auroral borealis were shown to communicate critically important information about an upcoming substorm, the location and timing of the initial reconnection onset, and the subsequent return of the magnetosphere to a lower-energy state. On the Sun, a similar role is played by the chromospheric flare ribbons which enable a detailed diagnostics of the overlying reconnecting magnetic field. In this talk, we’ll discuss similarities and differences in using auroral and flare ribbon observations for monitoring eruptive energy release in respectively Earth’s magnetosphere and solar corona. Special emphasis will be placed on the quantitative interpretation of the two types of optical signatures for empirical diagnostics of the underlying reconnection activity and for constraining its theoretical models. We’ll also compare forecasting capabilities of the two types of optical signatures in the context of space weather prediction objectives.

V. M. Uritskiy↗

NASA NTRS2017

Imaging a Free-Geometry Magma Reservoir Using FEM-Based Linear Inverse Modeling of InSAR Data: Application to Rabaul Caldera, Papua New Guinea

We test an innovative inversion scheme using Green’s functions from an array of pressure sources embedded in finite-element method (FEM) models to image, without assuming an a-priori geometry, the composite and complex shape of a volcano deformation source. We invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data to estimate the pressurization and shape of the magma reservoir of Rabaul caldera, Papua New Guinea. The results image the extended shallow magmatic system responsible for a broad and long-term subsidence of the caldera between 2007 February and 2010 December. Elastic FEM solutions are integrated into the regularized linear inversion of InSAR data of volcano surface displacements in order to obtain a 3-D image of the source of deformation. The Green’s function matrix is constructed from a library of forward line-of-sight displacement solutions for a grid of cubic elementary deformation sources. Each source is sequentially generated by removing the corresponding cubic elements from a common meshed domain and simulating the injection of a fluid mass flux into the cavity, which results in a pressurization and volumetric change of the fluidfilled cavity. The use of a single mesh for the generation of all FEM models avoids the computationally expensive process of non-linear inversion and remeshing a variable geometry domain. Without assuming an a-priori source geometry other than the configuration of the 3-D grid that generates the library of Green’s functions, the geodetic data dictate the geometry of the magma reservoir as a 3-D distribution of pressure (or flux of magma) within the source array. The inversion of InSAR data of Rabaul caldera shows a distribution of interconnected sources forming an amorphous, shallow magmatic system elongated under two opposite sides of the caldera. The marginal areas at the sides of the imaged magmatic system are the possible feeding reservoirs of the ongoing Tavurvur volcano eruption of andesitic products on the east side and of the past Vulcan volcano eruptions of more evolved materials on the west side. The interconnection and spatial distributions of sources correspond to the petrography of the volcanic products described in the literature and to the dynamics of the single and twin eruptions that characterize the caldera. The ability to image the complex geometry of deformation sources in both space and time can improve our ability to monitor active volcanoes, widen our understanding of the dynamics of active volcanic systems and improve the predictions of eruptions.

Inverse theory↗

NASA NTRS2017

Imaging the Complex Geometry of a Magma Reservoir Using Fem-Based Linear Inverse Modeling of InSAR Data: Application to Rabaul Caldera, Papua New Guinea

We test an innovative inversion scheme using Green’s functions from an array of pressure sources embedded in finite-element method (FEM) models to image, without assuming an a-priori geometry, the composite and complex shape of a volcano deformation source. We invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data to estimate the pressurization and shape of the magma reservoir of Rabaul caldera, Papua New Guinea. The results image the extended shallow magmatic system responsible for a broad and long-term subsidence of the caldera between 2007 February and 2010 December. Elastic FEM solutions are integrated into the regularized linear inversion of InSAR data of volcano surface displacements in order to obtain a 3-D image of the source of deformation. The Green’s function matrix is constructed from a library of forward line-of-sight displacement solutions for a grid of cubic elementary deformation sources. Each source is sequentially generated by removing the corresponding cubic elements from a common meshed domain and simulating the injection of a fluid mass flux into the cavity, which results in a pressurization and volumetric change of the fluid-filled cavity. The use of a single mesh for the generation of all FEM models avoids the computationally expensive process of non-linear inversion and remeshing a variable geometry domain. Without assuming an a-priori source geometry other than the configuration of the 3-D grid that generates the library of Green’s functions, the geodetic data dictate the geometry of the magma reservoir as a 3-D distribution of pressure (or flux of magma) within the source array. The inversion of InSAR data of Rabaul caldera shows a distribution of interconnected sources forming an amorphous, shallow magmatic system elongated under two opposite sides of the caldera. The marginal areas at the sides of the imaged magmatic system are the possible feeding reservoirs of the ongoing Tavurvur volcano eruption of andesitic products on the east side and of the past Vulcan volcano eruptions of more evolved materials on the west side. The interconnection and spatial distributions of sources correspond to the petrography of the volcanic products described in the literature and to the dynamics of the single and twin eruptions that characterize the caldera. The ability to image the complex geometry of deformation sources in both space and time can improve our ability to monitor active volcanoes, widen our understanding of the dynamics of active volcanic systems and improve the predictions of eruptions.

Inverse theory↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Combining Earth System Modeling and Machine Learning to Investigate Volcanic Sulfate Deposition in Polar Ice Cores

Volcanic eruptions emit large amounts of sulfur dioxide (SO2), water, and other chemicals into the atmosphere, both in the troposphere and the stratosphere. Most of the SO2 is converted to sulfate aerosol, which is eventually deposited following long-range transport. The deposits from large eruptions are potentially detectable in ice cores, but there are many cases in which sulfate layers have not been linked to their source volcanoes. As volcanoes can act as significant shocks to the global climate system, we are interested in locating these eruptions in order to increase understanding of the volcanic record. To narrow down the search, we performed 140 simulations of volcanic eruptions using the GISS ModelE Earth system model. We varied the latitude, longitude, Julian day, plume top, plume bottom, and injected SO2 and H2O amounts using a Latin hypercube sampling approach, and analyzed correlations between these parameters and sulfate depositions at ice core sites in Antarctica and Greenland. Using machine learning and parameter estimation, we generated probability distributions and maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters given sulfate deposition data, which can predict latitude with some skill. We find that the volcano latitude and SO2 content are best correlated with sulfate depositions at each pole, while longitude, Julian day, and H2O have small or insignificant effects. Plume altitude and thickness are important because they determine how much of the SO2 is injected into the stratosphere, which has implications for sulfur transport and lifetimes.

Earth system models↗

NASA NTRS2024

Melt Inclusions in Zircon: A Window to Understanding the Structure and Evolution of the Magmatic System Beneath the Laguna del Maule Volcanic Field

Explosive silicic eruptions pose a significant threat to society, yet the development and destabilization of the underlying silicic magmatic systems are still controversial. Zircons provide simultaneous information on the trace element composition and age of silicic magmatic systems, while melt inclusions in quartz and plagioclase yield important constraints on their volatile content as well as storage depth. Melt inclusions in zircons (MIZs) combine these data from a single mineral grain, recording the age, storage depth, temperature, and composition of magmas, and thus provide unique constraints on the structure and evolution of silicic magmatic systems. We studied MIZs from the Laguna del Maule (LdM) volcanic field in the southern Andes that is among the most active Pleistocene-Holocene rhyolitic volcanic centers worldwide and a potentially hazardous system displaying inflation rates in excess of 25 cm/yr. The host zircon ages suggest that the LdM MIZ record extends to ~30 kyr before eruption, in contrast to the melt inclusions in LdM plagioclase and quartz crystals that formed only decades to centuries before eruption. The major element compositions of MIZs are minimally affected by post-entrapment crystallization, and agree well with the LdM rhyolitic whole rock data. The more evolved major element composition of rle MIZs than rdm MIZs, suggests a long-term deeper connection of the rdm crystal mush to a more primitive magma body than that of the rle. The evidence of slow H diffusion observed in MIZs suggest that their H 2 O contents are not significantly affected by diffusion of H through the host zircon. The storage depths of 1.1 to 2.8 kbars recorded by the H 2 O contents of rdm and rle MIZs are consistent with the optimal emplacement window (2.0 ± 0.5 kbar) of silicic magma reservoir growth, storage, and eruptibility based on thermomechanical modeling (Huber et al. 2019).

Kei Shimizu↗

NASA NTRS2024

Unveiling the Journey of A Highly Inclined CME: Insights from the March 13, 2012, Event With 110° Longitudinal Separation

Context. A fast (∼2000 km s -1 ) and wide (>110°) coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted from the Sun on March 13, 2012. Its interplanetary counterpart was detected in situ two days later by STEREO-A and near-Earth spacecraft, such as ACE, Wind, and Cluster. We suggest that at 1 au the CME extended at least 110° in longitude, with Earth crossing its east flank and STEREO-A crossing its- west flank. Despite their separation, measurements from both positions showed very similar in situ CME signatures. The solar source region where the CME erupted was surrounded by three coronal holes (CHs). Their locations with respect to the CME launch site were east (negative polarity), southwest (positive polarity) and west (positive polarity). The solar magnetic field polarity of the area covered by each CH matches that observed at 1 au in situ. Suprathermal electrons at each location showed mixed signatures with only some intervals presenting clear counter streaming flows as the CME transits both locations. The strahl population coming from the shortest magnetic connection of the structure to the Sun showed more intensity. Aims. The aim of this work is to understand the propagation and evolution of the CME and its interaction with the surrounding CHs, to explain the similarities and differences between the observations at each spacecraft, and report what one of the most longitudinal expanded CME structures measured in situ would be. Methods. Known properties of the large-scale structures from a variety of catalogues and previous studies were used to have a better overview of this particular event. In addition, multipoint observations were used to reconstruct the 3D geometry of the CME and determine the context of the solar and heliospheric conditions before the CME eruption and during its propagation. The graduated cylindrical shell model (GCS) was used to reproduce the orientation, size and speed of the structure with a simple geometry. Also, the Drag-Based Model (DBM) was utilised to understand the conditions of the interplanetary medium better in terms of the drag undergone by the structure while propagating in different directions. Finally, a comparative analysis of the different regions of the structure through the different observatories was carried out in order to directly compare the in situ plasma and magnetic field properties at each location. Results. The study presents important findings regarding the in situ measured CME on March 15, 2012, detected at a longitudinal separation of 110° in the ecliptic plane despite its initial inclination being around 45° when erupted (March 13). This suggests that the CME may have deformed and/or rotated, allowing it to be observed near its legs with spacecraft at a separation angle greater than 100°. The CME structure interacted with high-speed streams generated by the surrounding CHs. The piled-up plasma in the sheath region exhibited an unexpected correlation in magnetic field strength despite the large separation in longitude. In situ observations reveal that at both locations there was a flank encounter – where the spacecraft crossed the first part of the CME – then encountered ambient solar wind, and finally passed near the legs of the structure. Conclusions. A scenario covering all evidence is proposed for both locations with a general view of the whole structure and solar wind conditions. Also, the study shows the necessity of having multipoint observations of large-scale structures in the heliosphere.

methods: data analysis↗

NASA NTRS2023

Effects of Optimisation Parameters on Data-Driven Magnetofrictional Modelling of Active Regions

Context . The solar magnetic field plays an essential role in the formation, evolution, and dynamics of large-scale eruptive structures in the corona. The estimation of the coronal magnetic field, the ultimate driver of space weather, particularly in the ‘low’ and ‘middle’ corona, is presently limited due to practical difficulties. Data-driven time-dependent magnetofrictional modelling (TMFM) of active region magnetic fields has been proven to be a useful tool to study the corona. The input to the model is the photospheric electric field that is inverted from a time series of the photospheric magnetic field. Constraining the complete electric field, that is, including the non-inductive component, is critical for capturing the eruption dynamics. We present a detailed study of the effects of optimisation of the non-inductive electric field on the TMFM of AR 12473. Aims . We aim to study the effects of varying the non-inductive electric field on the data-driven coronal simulations, for two alternative parametrisations. By varying parameters controlling the strength of the non-inductive electric field, we wish to explore the changes in flux rope formation and their early evolution and other parameters, for instance, axial flux and magnetic field magnitude. Methods . We used the high temporal and spatial resolution cadence vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The non-inductive electric field component in the photosphere is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field, thereby allowing unstable configurations to be formed. We estimated this component using an approach based on optimising the injection of magnetic energy. Results . Our data show that flux ropes are formed in all of the simulations except for those with the lower values of these optimised parameters. However, the flux rope formation, evolution and eruption time varies depending on the values of the optimisation parameters. The flux rope is formed and has overall similar evolution and properties with a large range of non-inductive electric fields needed to determine the non-inductive electric field component that is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field. Conclusions . This study shows that irrespective of non-inductive electric field values, flux ropes are formed and erupted, which indicates that data-driven TMFM can be used to estimate flux rope properties early in their evolution without needing to employ a lengthy optimisation process.

A. Kumari↗

NASA NTRS1993

Radiocarbon ages of lacustrine deposits in volcanic sequences of the Lomas Coloradas area, Socorro Island, Mexico

Extensive eruptions of alkalic basalt from low-elevation fissures and vents on the southern flank of the dormant volcano, Cerro Evermann, accompanied the most recent phase of volcanic activity on Socorro Island, and created the Lomas Coloradas, a broad, gently sloping terrain comprising the southern part of the island. We obtained 14C ages of 4690 +/- 270 BP (5000-5700 cal BP) and 5040 +/- 460 BP (5300-6300 cal BP) from lacustrine deposits that occur within volcanic sequences of the lower Lomas Coloradas. Apparently, the sediments accumulated within a topographic depression between two scoria cones shortly after they formed. The lacrustine environment was destroyed when the cones were breached by headward erosion of adjacent stream drainages. This was followed by the eruption of a thin basaltic flow from fissures near the base of the northernmost cone. The flow moved downslope for a short distance and into the drainages that presently bound the study area on the east and west. The flow postdates development of the present drainage system and may be very recent. Our 14C data, along with historical accounts of volcanic activity over the last century, including submarine eruptions that occurred a few km west of Socorro in early 1993, underscore the high risk for explosive volcanism in this region and the need for a detailed volcanic hazards plan and seismic monitoring.

NASA Center ARC↗

NASA NTRS2021

Twenty Years of NASA-EOS Multi-Sensor Satellite Observations at Kīlauea Volcano (2000–2019)

Recent eruptions of Kīlauea volcano, on the Island of Hawai'i, represent an ideal test location for studying volcanic plumes, due to its remote location and minimal anthropogenic pollution. Within this work we exploit the over 20-year data record from NASA EOS satellites to investigate the degree to which space-borne observations can detect shifts in known eruption dynamics at Kīlauea. Through the combined analysis of remotely sensed plume heights, plume particle microphysical properties, lava flow thermal tracking and high resolution SO2 mapping, we provide interpretations of the satellite signals in a volcanic context and link them to ground-based eruption reports for validation. We establish common patterns of plume dispersion and particle evolution and identify when significant shifts in activity occur. We also determine where ambient conditions influence the output retrieved from the space-borne sensors. By comparing the inferences derived from remote-sensing with the extensive record of suborbital observations at Kīlauea, we assess the strengths and limitations of the satellite-based volcanic assessment techniques. The work presented here highlights the capabilities of these techniques, allowing us to more confidently interpret volcanic activity observed from space globally, particularly in cases where ground observations are limited or entirely lacking.

volcano remote sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Stop-and-Go Mechanism: Towards an Integrated Approach to Model Seismicity, Outgassing, Deformation, and Thermal Unrest at Active Volcanoes

Connecting the geophysical and geochemical signals recorded at and above the surface of volcanoes with source mechanisms is fundamental to understand transitions from quiescence to eruption, and to integrate the behavior of volcanoes with their regional seismotectonic and hydrological context. Some of these signals include shallow volcanic tremor, a long-lasting (minutes-to-years) ground vibration detected in volcanic areas during unrest; volcanic outgassing, which shows intriguing periodicities over multiple scales, as revealed by space-borne instruments and by ground-based, high-frequency (~1 Hz), sampling methods; inflation and deflation of volcanic edifices, commonly associated with subsurface volume changes; and large-scale (from a few to tens of km2), low-temperature, thermal anomalies, a newly-discovered signal that has been observed to emerge on volcanic flanks from months-to-years prior to gas- and magma-driven eruptions. Traditionally, these geophysical and geochemical signals have been modelled independently, which limits our interpretation of subsurface processes and thus our assessment of unrest. In this work, we show through lumped-parameter models, numerical simulations, and preliminary laboratory experiments that many of the signals recorded around volcanoes can be integrated into a common “stop-and-go” mechanism. In particular, we found that they can arise spontaneously when taking into account the feedbacks between the temporary accumulation of gas and/or magma in the crust (“stop”), and the diffusive transfer of gas and heat towards the surface (“go”). For example, we find that the “stop-and-go” mechanism can explain: (i) the emergence of monochromatic, broadband, and harmonic tremor; (ii) the periodic components commonly observed in volcanic outgassing time series; (iii) the link between large-scale thermal anomalies and shallow hydrothermal systems; (iv) the reported time lags between large-scale thermal anomalies and deformation; and (v) the breathing of potentially destructive volcanic calderas. The “stop-and-go” mechanism provides a consistent and realistic framework to link multiple geophysical and geochemical signals with the processes leading to volcanic unrest and eruption.

volcanoes↗

NASA NTRS1972

Thermal surveillance of volcanoes

The author has identified the following significant results. A systematic aircraft program to monitor changes in the thermal emission from volcanoes of the Cascade Range has been initiated and is being carried out in conjunction with ERTS-1 thermal surveillance experiments. Night overflights by aircraft equipped with thermal infrared scanners sensitive to terrestrial emission in the 4-5.5 and 8-14 micron bands are currently being carried out at intervals of a few months. Preliminary results confirm that Mount Rainier, Mount Baker, Mount Saint Helens, Mount Shasta, and the Lassen area continue to be thermally active, although with the exception of Lassen which erupted between 1914 and 1917, and Mount Saint Helens which had a series of eruptions between 1831 and 1834, there has been no recent eruptive activity. Excellent quality infrared images recorded over Mount Rainier, as recently as April, 1972, show similar thermal patterns to those reported in 1964-1966. Infrared images of Mount Baker recorded in November 1970 and again in April 1972 revealed a distinct array of anomalies 1000 feet below the crater rim and associated with fumaroles or structures permitting convective heat transfer to the surface.

Friedman, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Investigation of prototype volcano surveillance network

The author has identified the following significant results. Earthquake counters in Guatemala were being installed between February 13 and 17. The volcano Fuego began erupting ash and ash flows on February 23. On February 17, 6 days before the eruption there were 80 earthquakes at two counters 5 and 15 km from the volcano. This was a substantial increase of a fairly constant level of events per day recorded for the previous four days. A counter 30 km away did not show an increase. Had the DCP been operating longer and had the data been sent immediately from Goddard, it might have been possible to warn of a possible eruption six days in advance.

Eaton, J. P.↗