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NASA NTRS2003

Neural Network and Regression Methods Demonstrated in the Design Optimization of a Subsonic Aircraft

The neural network and regression methods of NASA Glenn Research Center s COMETBOARDS design optimization testbed were used to generate approximate analysis and design models for a subsonic aircraft operating at Mach 0.85 cruise speed. The analytical model is defined by nine design variables: wing aspect ratio, engine thrust, wing area, sweep angle, chord-thickness ratio, turbine temperature, pressure ratio, bypass ratio, fan pressure; and eight response parameters: weight, landing velocity, takeoff and landing field lengths, approach thrust, overall efficiency, and compressor pressure and temperature. The variables were adjusted to optimally balance the engines to the airframe. The solution strategy included a sensitivity model and the soft analysis model. Researchers generated the sensitivity model by training the approximators to predict an optimum design. The trained neural network predicted all response variables, within 5-percent error. This was reduced to 1 percent by the regression method. The soft analysis model was developed to replace aircraft analysis as the reanalyzer in design optimization. Soft models have been generated for a neural network method, a regression method, and a hybrid method obtained by combining the approximators. The performance of the models is graphed for aircraft weight versus thrust as well as for wing area and turbine temperature. The regression method followed the analytical solution with little error. The neural network exhibited 5-percent maximum error over all parameters. Performance of the hybrid method was intermediate in comparison to the individual approximators. Error in the response variable is smaller than that shown in the figure because of a distortion scale factor. The overall performance of the approximators was considered to be satisfactory because aircraft analysis with NASA Langley Research Center s FLOPS (Flight Optimization System) code is a synthesis of diverse disciplines: weight estimation, aerodynamic analysis, engine cycle analysis, propulsion data interpolation, mission performance, airfield length for landing and takeoff, noise footprint, and others.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Propagation of Computational Uncertainty Using the Modern Design of Experiments

This paper describes the use of formally designed experiments to aid in the error analysis of a computational experiment. A method is described by which the underlying code is approximated with relatively low-order polynomial graduating functions represented by truncated Taylor series approximations to the true underlying response function. A resource-minimal approach is outlined by which such graduating functions can be estimated from a minimum number of case runs of the underlying computational code. Certain practical considerations are discussed, including ways and means of coping with high-order response functions. The distributional properties of prediction residuals are presented and discussed. A practical method is presented for quantifying that component of the prediction uncertainty of a computational code that can be attributed to imperfect knowledge of independent variable levels. This method is illustrated with a recent assessment of uncertainty in computational estimates of Space Shuttle thermal and structural reentry loads attributable to ice and foam debris impact on ascent.

DeLoach, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1993

Performance of traffic-alert collision avoidance (TCAS) antennas in the presence of scatterers

The performance of two TCAS systems is studied in the presence of electromagnetic scatterers. TCAS is an aircraft mounted angle of arrival (AOA) system, which estimates the bearing of a signal transmitted from a mode-S transponder on another nearby aircraft (intruder). Two systems are studied: (1) Comparison of Relative Amplitude system (CRA), and (2) Spiral Phase Antenna (SPA). The CRA antenna receives the reply via four switched beams. The bearing is estimated by comparing the amplitudes of the received signal. The SPA is based on the phase interferometer, which utilizes the received phase via sum and difference beams. The AOA is computed by comparing the reply with similar values on a calibration table, which is generated by modeling the TCAS antenna on the bare fuselage of a Boeing 727-200. The antenna patterns for the TCAS are found via high frequency methods based on the Uniform Geometric theory of Diffraction (UTD). By minimizing the standard deviation of the bearing error in a specified angular sector, optimal locations for top and bottom mounted TCAS antennas are found on the Boeing 727-200, 737-300 and 747-200 airframes. It will be shown that the overall bearing errors of the amplitude system are consistently smaller than the spiral phase TCAS. The effect of two types of nearby scatterers--antennas, and engine inlets--is studied. The AT741 L-band blade, DMC60-1 VHF Communication antenna were chosen as being representative antenna interference examples. Models are derived for the blades via a moment method analysis followed by a least squares procedure to synthesize the scattering patterns. Studies were conducted to estimate the minimum separation between the two antennas for acceptable operation. It will be shown that the spiral phase TCAS is adversely affected by the presence of a blade antenna. The amplitude system does not suffer from this limitation, especially for the forward look angles which are of most interest here. A model to represent the inlet scattering is based on the multiple scattering method and UTD. The engine on top of the B727-200 fuselage is modeled by a terminated circular waveguide. Then, the effect of moving the antenna forward on the fuselage is studied. It is again shown that the performance of the amplitude system is superior.

Sampath, K. S.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Analysis of modeling errors in system identification

This paper is concerned with the identification of a system in the presence of several error sources. Following some basic definitions, the notion of 'near-equivalence in probability' is introduced using the concept of near-equivalence between a model and process. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of system parameters are given. The effect of structural error on the parameter estimates for both deterministic and stochastic cases are considered.

Hadaegh, F. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Viking satellite orbit determination

During the summer of 1976, the two Viking spacecraft, each consisting of an orbiter-lander combination, were inserted into orbit about Mars. The paper describes the experiences of the Viking Satellite Orbit Determination Team in determining Mars centered ephemerides of the orbiters and positions of the landers from the two-way Doppler and range data, and synthesizes the different phases of the navigation plan which involves pre-flight modeling and error analysis for all Viking navigation functions from launch through landing. The problem of initial orbit convergence is solved by using DPODP's (Double Precision Orbit Determination Program) square-root batch data filter, and gravity models for both Viking I and Viking II were produced from the combination of short arc estimates. The importance of synchronous Viking orbits (with the rotational period of Mars) is stressed and future extended missions of the spacecraft are outlined.

Hildebrand, C. E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Real-time flutter analysis

The important algorithm issues necessary to achieve a real time flutter monitoring system; namely, the guidelines for choosing appropriate model forms, reduction of the parameter convergence transient, handling multiple modes, the effect of over parameterization, and estimate accuracy predictions, both online and for experiment design are addressed. An approach for efficiently computing continuous-time flutter parameter Cramer-Rao estimate error bounds were developed. This enables a convincing comparison of theoretical and simulation results, as well as offline studies in preparation for a flight test. Theoretical predictions, simulation and flight test results from the NASA Drones for Aerodynamic and Structural Test (DAST) Program are compared.

Walker, R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Spaceborne Doppler Radar Measurements of Rainfall: Correction of Errors Induced by Pointing Uncertainties

In this paper a sea surface radar echo spectral analysis technique to correct for the rainfall velocity error caused by radar-pointing uncertainty is presented. The correction procedure is quite straightforward when the radar is observing a homogeneous rainfall field. When nonuniform beam filling (NUBF) occurs and attenuating frequencies are used, however, additional steps are necessary in order to correctly estimate the antenna-pointing direction. This new technique relies on the application of the combined frequency-time (CFT) algorithm to correct for uneven attenuation effects on the observed sea surface Doppler spectrum. The performance of this correction technique was evaluated by a Monte Carlo simulation of the Doppler precipitation radar backscatter from high-resolution 3D rain fields (either generated by a cloud resolving numerical model or retrieved from airborne radar measurements). The results show that the antenna-pointing-induced error can, indeed, be reduced by the proposed technique in order to achieve 1 m s(exp -1) accuracy on rainfall vertical velocity estimates.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2009

Data Assimilation Experiments Using Quality Controlled AIRS Version 5 Temperature Soundings

The AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm has been finalized and is now operational at the Goddard DAAC in the processing (and reprocessing) of all AIRS data. The AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm contains a number of significant improvements over Version 4. Two very significant improvements are described briefly below. 1) The AIRS Science Team Radiative Transfer Algorithm (RTA) has now been upgraded to accurately account for effects of non-local thermodynamic equilibrium on the AIRS observations. This allows for use of AIRS observations in the entire 4.3 micron CO2 absorption band in the retrieval algorithm during both day and night. Following theoretical considerations, tropospheric temperature profile information is obtained almost exclusively from clear column radiances in the 4.3 micron CO2 band in the AIRS Version 5 temperature profile retrieval step. These clear column radiances are a derived product that are indicative of radiances AIRS channels would have seen if the field of view were completely clear. Clear column radiances for all channels are determined using tropospheric sounding 15 micron CO2 observations. This approach allows for the generation of accurate values of clear column radiances and T(p) under most cloud conditions. 2) Another very significant improvement in Version 5 is the ability to generate accurate case-by-case, level-by-level error estimates for the atmospheric temperature profile, as well as for channel-by-channel clear column radiances. These error estimates are used for quality control of the retrieved products. Based on error estimate thresholds, each temperature profiles is assigned a characteristic pressure, pg, down to which the profile is characterized as good for use for data assimilation purposes. We have conducted forecast impact experiments assimilating AIRS quality controlled temperature profiles using the NASA GEOS-5 data assimilation system, consisting of the NCEP GSI analysis coupled with the NASA FVGCM, at a spatial resolution of 0.5 deg by 0.5 deg. Assimilation of Quality Controlled AIRS temperature profiles down to pg resulted in significantly improved forecast skill compared to that obtained from experiments when all data used operationally by NCEP, except for AIRS data, is assimilated. These forecasts were also significantly better than to those obtained when AIRS radiances (rather than temperature profiles) are assimilated, which is the way AIRS data is used operationally by NCEP and ECMWF.

Susskind, Joel↗

NASA NTRS2007

NASA Tech Briefs, November 2007

Topics include: Wireless Measurement of Contact and Motion Between Contact Surfaces; Wireless Measurement of Rotation and Displacement Rate; Portable Microleak-Detection System; Free-to-Roll Testing of Airplane Models in Wind Tunnels; Cryogenic Shrouds for Testing Thermal-Insulation Panels; Optoelectronic System Measures Distances to Multiple Targets; Tachometers Derived From a Brushless DC Motor; Algorithm-Based Fault Tolerance for Numerical Subroutines; Computational Support for Technology- Investment Decisions; DSN Resource Scheduling; Distributed Operations Planning; Phase-Oriented Gear Systems; Freeze Tape Casting of Functionally Graded Porous Ceramics; Electrophoretic Deposition on Porous Non- Conductors; Two Devices for Removing Sludge From Bioreactor Wastewater; Portable Unit for Metabolic Analysis; Flash Diffusivity Technique Applied to Individual Fibers; System for Thermal Imaging of Hot Moving Objects; Large Solar-Rejection Filter; Improved Readout Scheme for SQUID-Based Thermometry; Error Rates and Channel Capacities in Multipulse PPM; Two Mathematical Models of Nonlinear Vibrations; Simpler Adaptive Selection of Golomb Power-of- Two Codes; VCO PLL Frequency Synthesizers for Spacecraft Transponders; Wide Tuning Capability for Spacecraft Transponders; Adaptive Deadband Synchronization for a Spacecraft Formation; Analysis of Performance of Stereoscopic-Vision Software; Estimating the Inertia Matrix of a Spacecraft; Spatial Coverage Planning for Exploration Robots; and Increasing the Life of a Xenon-Ion Spacecraft Thruster.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2010

Prospects for UT1 Measurements from VLBI Intensive Sessions

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) Intensives are one-hour single baseline sessions to provide Universal Time (UT1) in near real-time up to a delay of three days if a site is not e-transferring the observational data. Due to the importance of UT1 estimates for the prediction of Earth orientation parameters, as well as any kind of navigation on Earth or in space, there is not only the need to improve the timeliness of the results but also their accuracy. We identify the asymmetry of the tropospheric delays as the major error source, and we provide two strategies to improve the results, in particular of those Intensives which include the station Tsukuba in Japan with its large tropospheric variation. We find an improvement when (1) using ray-traced delays from a numerical weather model, and (2) when estimating tropospheric gradients within the analysis of Intensive sessions. The improvement is shown in terms of reduction of rms of length-of-day estimates w.r.t. those derived from Global Positioning System observations

Boehm, Johannes↗

NASA NTRS1999

Improving Reanalyses Using TRMM and SSM/I-Derived Precipitation and Total Precipitable Water Observations

Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve these fields in reanalyses. The DAO has developed a "1+1"D procedure to assimilate 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS. The "1+1" designation refers to one spatial dimension plus one temporal dimension. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the satellite-retrieved rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. The control variables are analysis increments of moisture within the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) framework of the GEOS DAS. This 1+1D scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but differs in its choice of the control variable. Instead of estimating the initial condition at the beginning of the assimilation cycle, it estimates the constant IAU forcing applied over a 6-hr assimilation cycle. In doing so, it imposes the forecast model as a weak constraint in a manner similar to the variational continuous assimilation techniques. We present results from an experiment in which the observed rain rate and TPW are assumed to be "perfect". They show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I-derived surface precipitation and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters directly linked to convective activities such as clouds, the outgoing longwave radiation, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data types reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also leads to a better short-range forecast, but the impact is modest compared with improvements in the time-averaged fields. These results suggest that, in the presence of biases and other errors of the forecast model, it is possible to improve the time-averaged "climate content" in the assimilated data without comparable improvements in the short-range forecast skill. Results of this experiment provide a useful benchmark for evaluating error covariance models for optimal use of these data types.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Estimating Surface Soil Moisture from SMAP Observations Using a Neural Network Technique

A Neural Network (NN) algorithm was developed to estimate global surface soil moisture for April 2015 to March 2017 with a 2-3 day repeat frequency using passive microwave observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite, surface soil temperatures from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5 (GEOS-5) land modeling system, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-based vegetation water content. The NN was trained on GEOS-5 soil moisture target data, making the NN estimates consistent with the GEOS-5 climatology, such that they may ultimately be assimilated into this model without further bias correction. Evaluated against in situ soil moisture measurements, the average unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE), correlation and anomaly correlation of the NN retrievals were 0.037 m(exp. 3)m(exp. -3), 0.70 and 0.66, respectively, against SMAP core validation site measurements and 0.026 m(exp. 3)m(exp. -3), 0.58 and 0.48, respectively, against International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) measurements. At the core validation sites, the NN retrievals have a significantly higher skill than the GEOS-5 model estimates and a slightly lower correlation skill than the SMAP Level-2 Passive (L2P) product. The feasibility of the NN method was reflected by a lower ubRMSE compared to the L2P retrievals as well as a higher skill when ancillary parameters in physically-based retrievals were uncertain. Against ISMN measurements, the skill of the two retrieval products was more comparable. A triple collocation analysis against Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) soil moisture retrievals showed that the NN and L2P retrieval errors have a similar spatial distribution, but the NN retrieval errors are generally lower in densely vegetated regions and transition zones.

Soil Moisture Remote Sensing↗

NASA NTRS1975

Sequential Least-Squares Using Orthogonal Transformations

Square root information estimation, starting from its beginnings in least-squares parameter estimation, is considered. Special attention is devoted to discussions of sensitivity and perturbation matrices, computed solutions and their formal statistics, consider-parameters and consider-covariances, and the effects of a priori statistics. The constant-parameter model is extended to include time-varying parameters and process noise, and the error analysis capabilities are generalized. Efficient and elegant smoothing results are obtained as easy consequences of the filter formulation. The value of the techniques is demonstrated by the navigation results that were obtained for the Mariner Venus-Mercury (Mariner 10) multiple-planetary space probe and for the Viking Mars space mission.

Bierman, G. J.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Land cover analysis of James City County, Virginia

The approach used to obtain reliable countywide forest resource data, including statistics and a forest cover distribution map from LANDSAT data is described. Comparison of results of the LANDSAT anlysis and U.S. Forestry Survey data is presented in a table. Pine, oak/pine, and oak/hickory accounted for 22.3%, 32.6% and 45.2% respectively of the total forest area in the LANDSAT analysis, compared to 22.8%, 30.1%. and 47.1% in the Forest Survey. The corresponding figures for each forest type differ at most 2.5% for the mixed forest. The total county area in forest land measured using LANDSAT was underestimated by 1,409 acres, a 2.2% error based on the Forest Survey statistics. However, the estimate of 61,242 acres fell well within the known 4% uncertainty of the estimate for the Forest Survey figures (62,651 acres + or - 2,544 acres).

Copony, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Verification of the accuracy of GEM-L2 in response to criticism by Lambeck and Coleman

The objective was to evaluate the accuracy of the Goddard Earth Model (GEM)-L2 and its improvement in estimating Lageos orbits in order to provide better baselines for plate tectonics, improved polar motion and Earth rotation. Analyses and comparisons with other models are made to verify accuracy in contrast to the Lambeck and Coleman result which denied the authors' accuracy estimates. The analysis presented completely verifies the accuracy of the GEM-L2 model and disproves the statistical methods of Lambeck and Coleman rejecting the accuracy of GEM-L2 as published in their report. The baselines derived from Lageos with GEM-L2 were estimated to have a 2 cm uncertainty due to the errors in the GEM-L2 gravity model which is supported by the results given. The calibration tests indicate that the errors in GEM-L2 should be reduced by about 30 percent which is in the opposite direction to the result obtained by Lambeck and Coleman.

Lerch, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Estimation of spectral reflectance signatures from spectral radiance profiles

This paper presents a technique for converting spectral radiance to the more fundamental quantity of interest, spectral reflectance. A full implementation of the technique requires the availability of radiative transfer software. However, a set of tables (which allows an approximate derivation of reflectance) is included herein, and covers a representative range of environmental parameter values. An error analysis is performed which gives, for an uncertainty in each of the input parameters (solar zenith angle, visibility, sensor altitude, off-nadir viewing angle, background reflectance and surface elevation), the resulting error in derived reflectance. As a demonstration of the technique, several sets of spectral radiance data from the Imperial Valley, California, are presented as spectral reflectances.

Bowker, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Photometric lightcurve observations and reduction techniques

Photoelectric light curves were used to determine the period of rotation, obtain the estimates of shape and pole orientation, and define the phase relation, or brightness as a function of solar phase angle, of asteroids. Methods for taking and reducing observations are described, with particular consideration given to the correction for atmospheric extinction, the use of Fourier analysis in constructing composite light curves, and the analysis of errors. Also discussed are computer programs that solve two principal problems: the determination of the time-variable extinction function for a night and the constuction of composite light curves.

Harris, A. W.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis Applied to Heat Transfer over a Flat Plate

There have been few discussions on using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) without experimental validation. Pairing experimental data, uncertainty analysis, and analytical predictions provides a comprehensive approach to verification and is the current state of the art. With pressed budgets, collecting experimental data is rare or non-existent. This paper investigates and proposes a method to perform CFD uncertainty analysis only from computational data. The method uses current CFD uncertainty techniques coupled with the Student-T distribution to predict the heat transfer coefficient over a at plate. The inputs to the CFD model are varied from a specified tolerance or bias error and the difference in the results are used to estimate the uncertainty. The variation in each input is ranked from least to greatest to determine the order of importance. The results are compared to heat transfer correlations and conclusions drawn about the feasibility of using CFD without experimental data. The results provide a tactic to analytically estimate the uncertainty in a CFD model when experimental data is unavailable

Computational↗