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Results for “ensemble methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Metropolis-style random sampling of quantum gates for the estimation of low-energy observables

In this work, we propose a quantum algorithm to compute low-energy expectation values of a quantum Hamiltonian by sampling a partition function associated with the average energy of that Hamiltonian. For any given quantum circuit-Hamiltonian pair, there is an associated average energy. The sampling is done through an accept/reject Metropolis-style algorithm on the quantum gates of the circuit itself. Observables calculated under the canonical ensemble from these samples of circuits are extrapolated from higher energies to the ground state.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Independent and interactive effects of wet bulb globe temperature and air pollution exposures on suicide mortality

Background: Individual components of the ambient environment, such as temperature and air pollution, exist as part of a complex mixture and have been associated with suicide; however, their interactive effects remain poorly understood. This study examined the independent and interactive effects of wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) on suicide mortality. Methods: We identified 7,551 suicide cases in Utah, USA, from 2000 to 2016 and assigned exposure to daily maximum WBGT (sourced from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and PM 2.5 and NO 2 concentrations (sourced from a national spatiotemporal ensemble model) using decedent’s residential address at the time of death. A case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the independent and interactive effects of WBGT max , PM 2.5 , and NO 2 on suicide. For exposure windows, we considered single days preceding suicide (lag 0 to 6) and their averages across preceding days (lag 0–1, 0–3, and 0–6). Analyses were stratified by season. Results: We identified a significant association between WBGT max and suicide across all seasons (odds ratio [OR] = 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01, 1.10; per 5 °C increase on lag 0–3 days). The associations were stronger in the warm season (March 22 to September 21), with ORs and 95% CIs ranging from 1.08 (1.02, 1.15) to 1.20 (1.10, 1.30) per 5 °C increase depending on the lag periods. We observed synergistic interactions between WBGT max and PM 2.5 and NO 2 in the warm season, associated with higher odds of suicide. The associations of WBGT max with suicide were most pronounced at high NO 2 levels. Conclusions: We found evidence of synergistic interactions between WBGT max and PM 2.5 and NO 2 on suicide in the warm season, emphasizing the need for considering the combined effects of heat stress and air pollution in suicide prevention strategies.

Fine particulate matter↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting battery capacity from impedance at varying temperature and state of charge using machine learning

Prediction of battery health from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data can enable rapid measurement of battery state in real-world applications without using additional sensors or time-consuming performance measurements. However, deconvoluting the effect of capacity, state of charge, and temperature on EIS response is complicated analytically. Here, various machine-learning models, such as linear, Gaussian process, random forest, and artificial neural network regression, are utilized to predict capacity from EIS using hundreds of capacity, direct current (DC) resistance, and EIS measurements recorded under varying conditions of health, temperature, and state of charge (SOC). Several feature extraction and selection methods from traditional electrochemical analysis and statistical modeling are explored using machine-learning pipelines. EIS data from just two frequencies can accurately predict capacity, and interrogation shows that the optimal set of frequencies is not usually intuitive. Best results are achieved with an ensemble model, which predicts battery capacity with a mean absolute error of 1.9% on data from unobserved cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrochemical and spectroelectrochemical characterization of bacteria and bacterial systems

Microbes, such as bacteria, can be described, at one level, as small, self-sustaining chemical factories. Based on the species, strain, and even the environment, bacteria can be useful, neutral or pathogenic to human life, so it is increasingly important that we be able to characterize them at the molecular level with chemical specificity and spatial and temporal resolution in order to understand their behavior. Bacterial metabolism involves a large number of internal and external electron transfer processes, so it is logical that electrochemical techniques have been employed to investigate these bacterial metabolites. In this mini-review, we focus on electrochemical and spectroelectrochemical methods that have been developed and used specifically to chemically characterize bacteria and their behavior. First, we discuss the latest mechanistic insights and current understanding of microbial electron transfer, including both direct and mediated electron transfer. Second, we summarize progress on approaches to spatiotemporal characterization of secreted factors, including both metabolites and signaling molecules, which can be used to discern how natural or external factors can alter metabolic states of bacterial cells and change either their individual or collective behavior. Finally, we address in situ methods of single-cell characterization, which can uncover how heterogeneity in cell behavior is reflected in the behavior and properties of collections of bacteria, e.g. bacterial communities. Recent advances in (spectro)electrochemical characterization of bacteria have yielded important new insights both at the ensemble and the single-entity levels, which are furthering our understanding of bacterial behavior. Furthermore, these insights, in turn, promise to benefit applications ranging from biosensors to the use of bacteria in bacteria-based bioenergy generation and storage.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning materials properties with accurate predictions, uncertainty estimates, domain guidance, and persistent online accessibility

One compelling vision of the future of materials discovery and design involves the use of machine learning (ML) models to predict materials properties and then rapidly find materials tailored for specific applications. However, realizing this vision requires both providing detailed uncertainty quantification (model prediction errors and domain of applicability) and making models readily usable. At present, it is common practice in the community to assess ML model performance only in terms of prediction accuracy (e.g. mean absolute error), while neglecting detailed uncertainty quantification and robust model accessibility and usability. Here, we demonstrate a practical method for realizing both uncertainty and accessibility features with a large set of models. We develop random forest ML models for 33 materials properties spanning an array of data sources (computational and experimental) and property types (electrical, mechanical, thermodynamic, etc). All models have calibrated ensemble error bars to quantify prediction uncertainty and domain of applicability guidance enabled by kernel-density-estimate-based feature distance measures. All data and models are publicly hosted on the Garden-AI infrastructure, which provides an easy-to-use, persistent interface for model dissemination that permits models to be invoked with only a few lines of Python code. We demonstrate the power of this approach by using our models to conduct a fully ML-based materials discovery exercise to search for new stable, highly active perovskite oxide catalyst materials.

domain of applicability↗
DOE OSTI2020

Instrumentation and experimental procedures for robust collection of X-ray diffraction data from protein crystals across physiological temperatures

Traditional X-ray diffraction data collected at cryo-temperatures have delivered invaluable insights into the three-dimensional structures of proteins, providing the backbone of structure–function studies. While cryo-cooling mitigates radiation damage, cryo-temperatures can alter protein conformational ensembles and solvent structure. Furthermore, conformational ensembles underlie protein function and energetics, and recent advances in room-temperature X-ray crystallography have delivered conformational heterogeneity information that can be directly related to biological function. Given this capability, the next challenge is to develop a robust and broadly applicable method to collect single-crystal X-ray diffraction data at and above room temperature. This challenge is addressed herein. The approach described provides complete diffraction data sets with total collection times as short as ~5 s from single protein crystals, dramatically increasing the quantity of data that can be collected within allocated synchrotron beam time. Its applicability was demonstrated by collecting 1.09–1.54 Å resolution data over a temperature range of 293–363 K for proteinase K, thaumatin and lysozyme crystals at BL14-1 at the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource. Here, the analyses presented here indicate that the diffraction data are of high quality and do not suffer from excessive dehydration or radiation damage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1976

Standard random number generation for MBASIC

A machine-independent algorithm is presented and analyzed for generating pseudorandom numbers suitable for the standard MBASIC system. The algorithm used is the polynomial congruential or linear recurrence modulo 2 method. Numbers, formed as nonoverlapping adjacent 28-bit words taken from the bit stream produced by the formula a sub m + 532 = a sub m + 37 + a sub m (modulo 2), do not repeat within the projected age of the solar system, show no ensemble correlation, exhibit uniform distribution of adjacent numbers up to 19 dimensions, and do not deviate from random runs-up and runs-down behavior.

Tausworthe, R. C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Variational Path Sampling of Rare Dynamical Events

This article reviews the concepts and methods of variational path sampling. These methods allow computational studies of rare events in systems driven arbitrarily far from equilibrium. Based upon a statistical mechanics of trajectory space and leveraging the theory of large deviations, they provide a perspective from which dynamical phenomena can be studied with the same types of ensemble reweighting ideas that have been used for static equilibrium properties. Applications to chemical, material, and biophysical systems are highlighted.

Singh, Aditya N↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vibrational Entropy of Crystalline Solids from Covariance of Atomic Displacements

The vibrational entropy of a solid at finite temperature is investigated from the perspective of information theory. Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations generate ensembles of atomic configurations at finite temperature from which we obtain the N-body distribution of atomic displacements, ρN. We calculate the information-theoretic entropy from the expectation value of lnρN. At a first level of approximation, treating individual atomic displacements independently, our method may be applied using Debye–Waller B-factors, allowing diffraction experiments to obtain an upper bound on the thermodynamic entropy. At the next level of approximation we correct the overestimation through inclusion of displacement covariances. We apply this approach to elemental body-centered cubic sodium and face-centered cubic aluminum, showing good agreement with experimental values above the Debye temperatures of the metals. Below the Debye temperatures, we extract an effective vibrational density of states from eigenvalues of the covariance matrix, and then evaluate the entropy quantum mechanically, again yielding good agreement with experiment down to low temperatures. Our method readily generalizes to complex solids, as we demonstrate for a high entropy alloy. Further, our method applies in cases where the quasiharmonic approximation fails, as we demonstrate by calculating the HCP/BCC transition in Ti.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS1975

Computer measurement and representation of the heart in two and three dimensions

Methods for accurate measurement and meaningful display of cardiac dimensions as obtained from fluoroscopy were surveyed. Recorded images were scaled back to actual dimensions and cardiac motion was displayed to assess functional changes. This was accomplished by use of a low-cost but flexible ensemble of computer and video equipment which assisted in (1) digitizing image outlines or points, (2) filing digitized images for later recall in any sequence, (3) correcting recorded images for distortion, (4) modeling heart geometry, (5) analyzing dimensional changes, and (6) displaying both heart geometry and results of analysis in a useful form.

Rasmussen, D.↗
NASA NTRS1985

User's manual for airfoil flow field computer code SRAIR

A two dimensional unsteady Navier-Stokes calculation procedure with specific application to the isolated airfoil problem is presented. The procedure solves the full, ensemble averaged Navier-Stokes equations with turbulence represented by a mixing length model. The equations are solved in a general nonorthogonal coordinate system which is obtained via an external source. Specific Cartesian locations of grid points are required as input for this code. The method of solution is based upon the Briley-McDonald LBI procedure. The manual discusses the analysis, flow of the program, control steam, input and output.

Shamroth, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Heat Stress to Jeopardize Crop Production in the US Corn Belt Based on Downscaled CMIP5 Projections

CONTEXT Global food security faces increasing challenges from the changing climate. Changes of agricultural output from some of the most productive regions such as the US Corn Belt can largely affect the world's food market. Developing predictive understanding of the agricultural risk of climate change and potential mitigation strategies is critical for the global food security. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to assess the responses of maize and soybean yield to projected climate changes in the Corn Belt, identify the shifting environment stressors on crop yield, and tackle potential climate adaptation strategies. METHODS We drive a process-based model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, with high-resolution statistically downscaled and bias-corrected historical and future climates from ten CMIP5 models in the MACA-2 database. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The multi-model ensemble mean suggests a 12% decrease of maize yield by mid-century and 40% by late century, with a high degree of model consensus in the direction of changes; for individual models, the projected decrease of maize yield by late century ranges from <5% to over 80%, with the worst crop outcome corresponding to the most sensitive climate models. Soybean yield is projected to increase by midcentury with a high degree of model consensus, but such consensus is lost by late century as some projections shift to significant decreases. Crop yield in the Corn Belt is currently limited by water stress, but is projected to be increasingly limited by heat stress as well after the midcentury. The mounting heat stress will drive the most productive zone for maize to shift from central to northern part of the Corn Belt, but the projected increase in the northern states cannot fully compensate for the decrease in the south, causing the total production to decrease if agricultural practice stays the same. Earlier planting can alleviate only a small fraction of the heat-induced crop loss in a warmer climate. Climate change will (at least partially) offset the yield boost caused by agricultural technology and intensification. SIGNIFICANCE This study advances our predictive understanding of crop yield responses to climate change, and suggests that a multitude of strategies will be needed to address the climate change challenges for the U.S. agriculture.

Crop yield↗
DOE OSTI2024

Report on the AAPM grand challenge on deep generative modeling for learning medical image statistics

Abstract Background The findings of the 2023 AAPM Grand Challenge on Deep Generative Modeling for Learning Medical Image Statistics are reported in this Special Report. Purpose The goal of this challenge was to promote the development of deep generative models for medical imaging and to emphasize the need for their domain‐relevant assessments via the analysis of relevant image statistics. Methods As part of this Grand Challenge, a common training dataset and an evaluation procedure was developed for benchmarking deep generative models for medical image synthesis. To create the training dataset, an established 3D virtual breast phantom was adapted. The resulting dataset comprised about 108 000 images of size 512 512. For the evaluation of submissions to the Challenge, an ensemble of 10 000 DGM‐generated images from each submission was employed. The evaluation procedure consisted of two stages. In the first stage, a preliminary check for memorization and image quality (via the Fréchet Inception Distance [FID]) was performed. Submissions that passed the first stage were then evaluated for the reproducibility of image statistics corresponding to several feature families including texture, morphology, image moments, fractal statistics, and skeleton statistics. A summary measure in this feature space was employed to rank the submissions. Additional analyses of submissions was performed to assess DGM performance specific to individual feature families, the four classes in the training data, and also to identify various artifacts. Results Fifty‐eight submissions from 12 unique users were received for this Challenge. Out of these 12 submissions, 9 submissions passed the first stage of evaluation and were eligible for ranking. The top‐ranked submission employed a conditional latent diffusion model, whereas the joint runners‐up employed a generative adversarial network, followed by another network for image superresolution. In general, we observed that the overall ranking of the top 9 submissions according to our evaluation method (i) did not match the FID‐based ranking, and (ii) differed with respect to individual feature families. Another important finding from our additional analyses was that different DGMs demonstrated similar kinds of artifacts. Conclusions This Grand Challenge highlighted the need for domain‐specific evaluation to further DGM design as well as deployment. It also demonstrated that the specification of a DGM may differ depending on its intended use.

Radiology, Nuclear Medicine & Medical Imaging↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding and control of Zener pinning via phase field and ensemble learning

Zener pinning refers to the dispersion of fine particles which influences grain size distribution via movement of grain boundaries in a polycrystalline material. Grain size distribution in polycrystals has a significant impact on their properties including physical, chemical, mechanical, and optical to name a few. We explore the use of Phase-field modeling and machine-learning techniques to understand and improve the control of grain size distribution via Zener pinning in polycrystalline materials. We develop a machine learning model that determines the relative importance of various parameters to exercise microstructure control via Zener pinning. Our workflow combines high-throughput phase-field simulations and machine learning to address the computational bottlenecks associated with large-scale simulations as well as identify features necessary for microstructure control in polycrystals. A random forest (RF) regression model was developed to predict grain sizes based on five Phase-field model parameters, achieving an average prediction error of 0.72 nm for the training data and 1.44 nm for the test data. The importance of the input parameters is analyzed using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) approach which reveals that diffusivity, volume fraction, and particle diameter are the most important parameters in determining the final grain size. These findings will allow us to select the best second-phase particles, optimize grain size distributions and thus design microstructures with the desired properties. The developed method is a highly versatile and generalizable approach that can be used to assess the combined effects of individual features in the presence of multiple variables.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating WRF-Solar EPS cloud mask forecast using the NSRDB

Improving the accuracy of day-ahead solar forecasts using numerical weather prediction models requires improving the forecasting of cloud occurrence and properties. Validating cloud forecasts is challenging because this requires evaluating different types of clouds over a wide variety of regions. This study analyzes the cloud occurrence (or cloud mask) over the contiguous United States (CONUS), predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), to identify the strengths and limitations of the model in reproducing cloud fields. To enable the in-depth analysis of cloud mask forecasts covering CONUS, we use satellite observations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Two evaluation methods are implemented to consider all clouds and partially removed clouds from the 2-km NSRDB in evaluating the 9-km WRF-Solar EPS cloud mask. Cloud detection metrics as well as the frequency of cloud occurrence are used to quantify the monthly performance of WRF-Solar EPS. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is used to assess the model's capability to predict different types of clouds, which are classified using three levels of cloud optical depth (COD) and cloud top height (CTH). The day-ahead forecasts covering the full year of 2018 demonstrate that WRF-Solar EPS produces MCFs ranging from 27%-46%, 13%-34%, and 8%-19% for thin, mid-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively. For three CTH levels, the model shows MCFs ranging from 19%-46%, 16%-33%, and 8%-27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively. This comprehensive characterization of model performance helps identify model weakness and will eventually lead to improvements in cloud and solar radiation forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Primordial non-Gaussianity with angular correlation function: integral constraint and validation for DES

ABSTRACT Local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) is a promising observable of the underlying physics of inflation, characterized by $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$. We present the methodology to measure $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) data using the two-point angular correlation function (ACF) with scale-dependent bias. One of the focuses of the work is the integral constraint (IC). This condition appears when estimating the mean number density of galaxies from the data and is key in obtaining unbiased $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ constraints. The methods are analysed for two types of simulations: ∼246 goliat-png N-body small area simulations with fNL equal to −100 and 100, and 1952 Gaussian ice-cola mocks with fNL = 0 that follow the DES angular and redshift distribution. We use the ensemble of goliat-png mocks to show the importance of the IC when measuring PNG, where we recover the fiducial values of fNL within the 1σ when including the IC. In contrast, we found a bias of ΔfNL ∼ 100 when not including it. For a DES-like scenario, we forecast a bias of ΔfNL ∼ 23, equivalent to 1.8σ, when not using the IC for a fiducial value of fNL = 100. We use the ice-cola mocks to validate our analysis in a realistic DES-like set-up finding it robust to different analysis choices: best-fitting estimator, the effect of IC, BAO damping, covariance, and scale choices. We forecast a measurement of fNL within σ(fNL) = 31 when using the DES-Y3 BAO sample, with the ACF in the 1 deg < θ < 20 deg range.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward a resolution of the NN controversy

Lattice QCD calculations of two-nucleon interactions have been underway for about a decade, but still haven't reached the pion mass regime necessary for matching onto effective field theories and extrapolating to the physical point. Furthermore, results from different methods, including the use of the Lüscher formalism with different types of operators, as well as the HALQCD potential method, do not agree even qualitatively at very heavy pion mass. We investigate the role that different operators employed in the literature may play on the extraction of spectra for use within the Lüscher method. We first explore expectations from Effective Field Theory solved within a finite volume, for which the exact spectrum may be computed given different physical scenarios. We then present preliminary lattice QCD results for two-nucleon spectra calculated using different operators on a common lattice ensemble.

Nicholson, A↗